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To correct misgivings in many quarters about Syrian refugees not finding a haven in Gulf states, this letter from the Cato Institute points out that the population of Syrian refugees living in the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia has gone up by 1.1 million by 2013 from the beginning of the civil war. He cites World Bank data showing 241,000 Syrians living in the Gulf states before the civil war. By 2013 that number is 1.4 million. For Saudi Arabia the figures are up from 111,000 to 1 million.

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Errors and bad decisions at BP in asking for and getting exemptions from regulators, which violated its own policies. The potential of a BP bankruptcy, if it faces huge liabilities- and this runs into tens of billions of dollars- as well as running into problems with te Obama administration.

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The regulatory mood in Washington and airline lapses leading to special maintenance inspections for all airlines by the FAA.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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The NYT editorial in April 2013 supporting a cautious response in Syria as it reports the use of chemical weapons by the Assad government.

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The Economist magazine says the difficult process of Brexit is now being put by Theresa May into the hands of the pro-Brexit ministers, Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson. Just staffing the Department for Exiting the EU under Davis, and the Department for International Trade under Liam Fox is taking a lot of time. And the differences between Fox and Davis also figure into the time it will take to invoke Article 50. It says the points put forward by Brexiters that Britain could revert to WTO rules do not work so well in practice, and it takes years to negotiate new trade agreements with other countries. It sees many problems, and says it is no wonder that Theresa May has told the Brexiter ministers to come up with answers as they are the ones who have sold this idea to the country.

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Spain accepts assistance from the European Financial Stability Fund with the EFSF committing $125 billion to the Spanish government for a fund specifically intended to recapitalize the banks. Some oversight will be provided by the IMF for Spain's banking system, but this is not a bailout in the sense of IMF conditionality or the EU imposing oversight of Spain's management of its finances and the economy. Instead a compromise was reached where only oversight over its banking system was offered in exchange for the loan. Spain has already committed to improving competitiveness in the economy, and reducing the fiscal deficit with some flexibility due to rising unemployment which has reached 25%. The problems in Spain's banking sector are focussed on the cajas savings banks which financed the housing bubble and not on all banks, with banks such as Europe's second largest bank Banco Santander which have intenational operations being in much better shape. The U.S. and the UK experienced a housing bubble at the same time as Spain, but the governments of both countries moved early on to recapitalize the banking system in 2008-2009. This move is significant because it helps stabilize the gobal economy by fixing the main problem facing Spain of recapitalizing its banks, this being the largest problem in the eurozone....

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The May 2010 employment figures there were 431,000 people added to payrolls that month. But the numbers are disconcerting when one looks at the private sector jobs created of only 41,000. About 411,000 were temporary census jobs. Average factory work week lengthened by three tenths of an hour. Average hourly earnigs rose by 7 cents which combined with a slightly longer work week created an estimated 0.6 increase in incomes, acccording to Deutsche Bank.

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A report by the Accountability Review Board of the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya. The five member panel includes former ambassador Thomas Pickering and retired Adm. Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

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Governor Hochul of New York was only able to increase the minimum wage by 2 dollars in New York to $17, up from $15, by 2026 in New York City, Long Island and Westchester. It would go up to $17 in the rest of the state by 2027. Assembly Democrats had asked for $21 saying that Seattle and Los Angeles offered a higher minimum wage.  Future increases would be pegged to inflation.

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Japan's GDP declined by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2012. GDP is expected to decline in the fourth quarter putting Japan in a recessionary phase. The rebound effects following the tsunami and earhtquake are receding and sales to China are sluggish. The strong yen and the eurozone crisis hurts exports. The proposed sales tax increase by the Noda government may be jeopardized by the recessionary phase.

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Baer and Zuckerman give this friendly account of how a law student from Melbourne found himself a single Australian in New York. He went on to join Morgan Stanley and took over in 2010 at the height of the faulty mortgage financial crisis. His patient attitude and quiet demeanor  stemming from growing up in a family of 10 children helped him take on the responsibilities at the bank when banking was getting a bad name for its responsibility in causing the financial crisis. His mother was a nurse, his father an engineer, both underpaid and stressed professions compared to banking which has caused crisis after crisis in an effort to get outsize rewards. This Australian American later told colleagues, that around the dinner table his middle class parents discussed current events creating an interest in reading and world affairs. We get this as it was our own experience. What has he to say then about both the absence of this middle class today in the way it was, and more than two thirds of American eight graders lacking proficiency levels in reading, 75% lacking proficiency in Civics and History shown in NAEP tests? Not much different in Australia or the British Commonwealth too. His name James Gorman, who now retires at the age of 64. How could he give back by supporting a Movement for Global Literacy, what we have also on this site? Lyrarc.com acts a driver for this much needed literacy in reading comprehension, history and civics. ...

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DW.com sees "back paddling" in Trump's latest foreign policy speech, replacing bigotry against immigrants with the idea of a ban on Muslims entering the U.S. with "extreme vetting" of new immigrants, including an ideological screening test. Trump it says repeated his claim that he opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, which it says is false. Trump's statement that he would reduce the current nation building strategy pursued under president Bush, it says doesn't make sense because the current situation in the Middle East ( rise of ISIS and chaos in Syria) arises from American retrenchment reversing in the opposite direction the policies of president George W. Bush. It is also true that Bush started his presidency with no intention of nation building, it was only after 9/11 that he adopted this policy. The elder Bush, George W. Bush's father, is reported to have said that his son as president was ill served by bad advisors in the invasion of Iraq over weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Obama's retrenchment has also led to differences in policy, with Leon Panetta and Hillary Clinton believing the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction, as shown in LyrArc's coverage. The speech was read using a teleprompter to avoid the frequent gaffes in previous speeches. Clearly an effort to make immigration and terrorism issues to win voter support, after previous efforts resembling bigotry and intolerance. ...

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Simon Johnson and Peter Boone say not taking forceful action with the large banks- taking them through bankruptcy and restructuring procedures as advocated by senior Federal Reserve officials like Peter Hoenig- will only lead to irreversible damage. The current Geithner-Summers policy being followed by the Obama administration is simply to hope that by fiscal stimulus and economic recovery the banks may be brought to sustained profits and be able to muddle through their financial problems. This Johnson argues is not likely to happen and the cost will be higher debt levels for America, irreversible damage as America faces low debt and financially stronger countries in Asia and sees its position in the world weaken. The muddle through policies for banks of the Obama administration have little prospects in the face of an IMF estimated $275 billion shortfall in capital on balance sheets at large banks (from the IMF Global Financial stability Report). Without aggressive action on the banks America's recovery and renewal will only delayed....

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Instructions in a 2012 law say the money from fines paid by banks for LIBOR related offenses should go to communities throughout Britain. A program in North Yorkshire teaches military veterans how to use "therapeutic baking" as a way to ease stress through cooking and by kneading dough. The same social housing charity, Riverside ECHG, says its focus is on making sure people are not sleeping in bushes or cars. A program in Harrowgate uses these funds to resurface tennis courts at a treatment center for injured police. British prime minister Cameron promised during the recent election to use 227 million pounds from fines paid against Deutsche Bank in April 2015 for financing 50,000 apprenticeships. Critics say the money should have gone to people who were harmed by the banks actions, yet in the case of LIBOR related offenses it is not clear who was harmed and by how much. The idea for the 2012 law come from Chancellor George Osborne. Osborne said about sending money back into local communities- "It is fitting that the money paid in fines by people who demonstrated the poorest values in our society is used to support those who demonstrate the very best."...

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Speaking in Santiago, Chile, Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser, pointed to the limits and hazards of excessive use of monetary policy by the US Fed. The Fed, Plosser said, cannot reverse the sharp decline in house prices when the economy has significantly overinvested in housing. The Journal editorial states that though its never been stated as such, the Fed's current easy money policy is intended to reflate the housing and job markets. Plosser said the excessive faith and reliance on monetary policy can undermine the recovery by "distorting price signals and thus resource allocations, adding to instablity."

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Gen. Martin Dempsey took a cautious approach to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Syria. He did not approve of the way Gen. McChrystal expanded U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, and the hasty manner in which the Iraqi army was trained under his predecessors leading to some commanders being appointed who later became members of sectarian death squads. Under his command the U.S. limited its role in Afghanistan and Iraq and handed more responsibility to local forces. Gen. Dunford who succeeded Dempsey as chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff for the U.S. follows the cautious approach set by Dempsey. Dempsey's approach extends to what he believes is an Heisenberg effect in physics where when you you observe or touch something it changes the way it functions and operates. For critics such as Senator McCain, who served in Vietnam as a pilot, if Dempsey did not want to intervene in some country, he could invent the reasons not to get involved. President Obama exceeded the caution exercized by Dempsey, leading to a situation where the U.S. after hasty action under a Republican president seemed to lurch in the opposite direction under his Democratic successor by not taking action where U.S. presence was needed, followed by a corrective course to make up for this....

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Another and very different side of healing, of healing Nature and our surroundings. "Making horrible things better," the goal for renewal of a New York Canal, the Gowanus Canal that runs through New York's neighborhoods. EPA is part of the cleanup started by brave volunteers. It is a cleaner waterway ready for canoeing and breathing deeply, says this video done by the BBC.

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Two Harvard economists, Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett, say China is likely to revert to the mean of average long term growth of developed countries after this spurt of growth is over. Growth is likely to slow to 6% by 2016, and revert to the mean of 2% for industrialized countries in the long term. Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill, says the growth at a higher rate could be sustained because of urbanization. Summers does not rule out this outcome as he accepts a range of outcomes, with the most likely outcome being a reversion to the mean. The factors often cited for slowing growth are lower of productivity of capital as corruption and close connections determine where capital is allocated, misallocation of capital, large increases in credit in the economy since 2009 leading to bad debt in the financial system, aging society and demographics with increasing numbers of older people. Other reasons are the choices being made by Chinese leaders for slowing down to address the problems of air pollution and contamination of water supplies, inflation in housing prices, overdependence on exports, need to shift to increasing domestic consumer spending but unable to do this with the lack of spending power of large parts of the population because wealth is excessively concentrated in the upper ranks of society. The need to manage these forces ensuring some measure of stability depends on finding ways to reduce the growing concentration of wealth and power, in itself a challenge for the Communist Party elite. A combination of different factors with some still unknown factors are likely to play a part in this reversion to the mean for China, a situation encountered by every country so far in North America, Europe and Japan. This makes it even more important that each developing society structure its development around the most optimal goals with the least costs attached to the development....

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How the IMF conditionality has changed in the 2009 global economic crisis. The IMF head, Dominique Strauss-Kahn of France, is aware how sensitive nations around the world have become to the word IMF. So much so that it has even suggested removing the word IMF from loans to get takers. The IMF conditons worsened the S. Korean financial crisis in 1998. See link to this. This time Kahn has advocated that the developed countries of Europe and the USA increase stimulus spending to 2% of GDP.And there are fewer calls for cutting spending in developing countries offered help by the IMF. Pakistan was asked to increase interest rates by 3% but actually increased them by 2% to fight inflation. But to get some idea how the IMF is viewed with suspicion and hostility in many countries one has to listen to comments made. The move for Pakistan was so unpopular in 2008 that Mohsin Khan a top IMF official says he met with agroup of generals to get their backing. Some IMF officials insistend on a 10% rate increase. Something like that would have led to riots in Pakistani cities. IMF loaned Pakistan $7.6 billion. When S. Korea said no to the IMF credit line, Lee Hyoung-ryoul, a Korean Finance Ministry official said that S. Koreans tremble and financial markets turn sensitive whenever they hear the word "IMF." This time Brazil, S. Korea and Mexico, were offered condition free credit lines. But it has found no takers from these three conuntries, so badly is the IMF viewed in developing countries. Even though it appears that Kahn, in the small club of western nation's officials and staff that form the governing body of the IMF, is trying to give the IMF a new image, its just so bad and the views of the old timers at the IMF on spending or interest rates so contrary to the needs of people in the developed and developing countries, that a new generation of people in finance and economics will be needed before real change is established. ...

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High level Swiss business team negotiators reach agreement with US for 15% tariffs in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US by 2028. One third of this investment has to take place in 2026. The Swiss business team met with DJT at the White House. 

Swiss will remove taxes on US beef and poultry exports. Swiss investments cited by trade negotiator Helene Artieda are plane maker Pilatus to build a US plant, and train maker Stadler to expand operations in Utah.

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The People's Bank of China lowers the benchmark lending and deposit rates by 0.25 of a percentage point, and cuts the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 of a percentage point. The PBOC said the move was designed to offset "the persisting downward pressures on the country's economic growth." It was also designed to offset the large volatility in China's stock markets. The PBOC also removed the upper limit on interest rates for fixed term deposits of more than one year, as part of interest rate liberalization. The move also counters the large capital outflows affecting China, as is happening for all emerging markets, of $70 billion in July. These outflows may have accelerated in August 2015 with declining investor confidence. Experts say the reserve ratio cut should inject about $100 billion into the banking system.

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This exceptional report from rural areas in France by Roger Cohen shows why the support is growing for the far right and the far left in rural areas and smaller towns outside the large cities which have suffered from high unemployment and neglected as technology and capital moved to other areas. Cohen talks to Nicholas Bay, secretary general of the National Front, who says this election is about patriotism, the nation state vs globalization, as the National Front tries to portray its opposition as being less pro-France, and less pro French culture. The centrist candidate Macron stands in front of a statue of Alexandre Dumas in Picardy, an hour northeast of Paris, and says he is for an "open patriotism" that embraces people of different origins and embraces refugees. Cohen attends a Le Pen rally in Metz, Lorraine, talks to a National Front mayor in Picardy and left party supporters in the town, talks to foreigners in the banlieu of Sevran. Cohen says a National Front victory is possible if enough voters who support the far left party of Melenchon do not vote for centrist candidate Macron, and enough voters of centre right Fillon supporting French culture and nationalism drift to Le Pen. As in the Dutch election with Moroccans derided by the far right the immigrant issue is a factor. Against this background is how events play out in the last weeks of the election. In March and April the events in the U.S. show a Trump administration moving to the centre, adopting a quieter and more constructive tone towards Mexico and immigrants. Relations with Russia have worsened after the U.S. response to the chemical attack in Syria, and the French public may now see this as a common threat to NATO and the European Union. As in the Dutch election a lot depends on the last weeks of the election and how well the centrist parties, the centre right and the centre left get their message across about what is to be gained by building anew on the foundations of the past without risking a lot on an uncertain path of referendums and exit from the European Union.   ...

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The ECB reduced a short term lending rate to 0.75%. The People's Bank of China reduced its one year yuan lending rate by 0.31% percentage point to 6%. The Bank of England increased its bond buying program by 50 billion pounds to 375 billion pounds.

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Banks with large amount of credit card data are in a better position to use that data to precisely target customers for digitally delivered coupons. This explains the acquisition by J.P. Morgan Chase of Bloomspot for $35 million. It also poses more risks for Groupon's model as shown by its shift from spa, restaurant, local merchants and other similiar retail stores to stores that sell winter coats directly to email subscribers.