LyrArc Article Gist
The Economist argues against a bailout ot Detroit automakers and says Chapter 11 could be made to work. the alternative is to get preferred equity in return for bailout money.

LyrArc Article Gist
China needs to make a serious effort to move away from export based model for growth and fix what is broken about that model which is investment in health care, education, the environment, improving rural incomes by giving farmers ownership of land, directing money to the poor and to rural areas that have suffered during the long three decade boom years. The growth rate is expected by analysts to hit 6% in the fourth quarter. And further declines can be expected as exports get hit hard as export markets in the USA and Europe see large declines in consumer spending. The stimulus package is less than what it appears because it includes things that were already planned expenditures, yet it is a step forward. Investment in railways to modernize the rail network is a good investment. And with proper reallocation to the rural sector this stimulus and approoriate new policies could unwind what the Economist calls the grotesque global distortion that has seen poor Chinese farmers help finance the debt fueled excesses of western consumers in countries like USA, UK, and Ireland. Something the Economist has not emphasized in the boom years, but now that the growth rate could drop to 4-6% there is deep concern what it would do for social stability, for rural incomes, and the disparity that has been built up between urban and rural incomes, both within China for policymakers and the media outside....

LyrArc Article Gist
If you are Exxon or Exxon's CEO Tillerson there are no regrets and its a hydrocarbopn world for as far as you can see and that is decades from now. Or has success made Exxon grow complacent when new winds are blowing.

LyrArc Article Gist
In talking about the systemic risks of the failure of GM, about 3 million jobs depend on the auto industry with 1,187,000 employed by dealerships of which 325,000 are employed in GM dealerships. Another concern is that GM's pension obligations are underfunded by $18 billion at the end of 2008 according to Deutsche Bank. This would be added to the $11 billion deficit at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. were GM to fail.

LyrArc Article Gist
A Prof. at New York University School of Law on why bankruptcy is the only viable option for GM, and his reasoning, including GM's legacy costs hard to get rid of without bankruptcy, the DIP set aside for warranties or a DIP loan for this to reassure customers, and the need for urgency to reduce brands, facilities, plants, dealerships, and have contracts that are realistic for the times, and retiree benefits taken up by the PGBC.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's diesel imports declined by 46% in October year over year, according to General Administration of Customs, and China was a net exporter of gasoline for 2 months in a row, signs that the slump in China is serious.

LyrArc Article Gist
Hona's hybrid technology is lighter and more suited to lighter vehicles compared to Toyota's hybrid and may offer better gas mileage. It will also cost less because Honda is trying to reduce the cost differential between the hybrid and the gasoline car to less than $2000 according to Mr Kato who heads R&D at Honda. Its new compact hybrid that its introducing in the US, European and Japanese markets next year will retail for around $18,000, or about $3000 less than the Prius. So the new Honda hybrid will have advantages and Honda hopes to sell 200,000 of these compact hybrids and in doing so also present itself as an environmentally friendly company. At the same time Toyota will not be standing still as its new revamped Prius will come out in 2010.

LyrArc Article Gist
New mortgage plan announced by the Federal Housing Agency on November 10, is just a drop in the bucket and helps only a few homeowners, it barely scratches the surface of the problem. It helps thousands but more than 4 million homeowners or 9% of borrowers wit mortgages were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure in June according to Mortgage Bankers Association. There were 765,000 foreclosures in the third quarter. This will have intensified since then with the October credit crisis and the huge job losses in the fourth quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
This exceptional report from rural areas in France by Roger Cohen shows why the support is growing for the far right and the far left in rural areas and smaller towns outside the large cities which have suffered from high unemployment and neglected as technology and capital moved to other areas. Cohen talks to Nicholas Bay, secretary general of the National Front, who says this election is about patriotism, the nation state vs globalization, as the National Front tries to portray its opposition as being less pro-France, and less pro French culture. The centrist candidate Macron stands in front of a statue of Alexandre Dumas in Picardy, an hour northeast of Paris, and says he is for an "open patriotism" that embraces people of different origins and embraces refugees. Cohen attends a Le Pen rally in Metz, Lorraine, talks to a National Front mayor in Picardy and left party supporters in the town, talks to foreigners in the banlieu of Sevran. Cohen says a National Front victory is possible if enough voters who support the far left party of Melenchon do not vote for centrist candidate Macron, and enough voters of centre right Fillon supporting French culture and nationalism drift to Le Pen. As in the Dutch election with Moroccans derided by the far right the immigrant issue is a factor. Against this background is how events play out in the last weeks of the election. In March and April the events in the U.S. show a Trump administration moving to the centre, adopting a quieter and more constructive tone towards Mexico and immigrants. Relations with Russia have worsened after the U.S. response to the chemical attack in Syria, and the French public may now see this as a common threat to NATO and the European Union. As in the Dutch election a lot depends on the last weeks of the election and how well the centrist parties, the centre right and the centre left get their message across about what is to be gained by building anew on the foundations of the past without risking a lot on an uncertain path of referendums and exit from the European Union.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The current or former vice presidents or executive committee members at the top of the FIFA soccer organization who were arrested by Swiss authorites at the request of the U.S. Justice Department are from small countries such as Paraguay, Uruguay, Trinidad and Tobago, and two officials from the Cayrran Islands which most people have not heard of. Others are from Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Venezuela in the central American region. This tells a lot about why the FIFA is in such a mess today. One nation, one vote means Trinidad counts for as much as England and Germany. There are 209 members with many being small nations such as Botswana. It is based in Zurich, was founded in 1904, and is subject to Swiss law. The result say critics is that there is very little change at the top, with Seth Blatter the FIFA head since 1998 in near complete control and very little prospect of change. He worked his way from secretary to president, and was previously employed by Swiss watchmaker Longines. Some critics describe the situation as reminiscent of medieval fiefdoms, and lacking the openness and transparency so essential in a body governing one of the most popular sports in the world....

LyrArc Article Gist
Its like throwing a dart at a dartboard, these investment advisory firms and the star firms, are they really adding value more than other firms in the same business. Is a Goldman Sachs that much better than say a Deutsche Bank a relative newcomer, not really says this study and this report. The old adage that half of the deals destroy value is still not too far from the mark even though things may have improved a bit. But scrambling for the star firms as investment advisors does that really mean the deal is going to add value, they may want you to believe this but not really.

LyrArc Article Gist
Core inflation which was in the 1-2% range in 2008, may drop below 1% in 2009 as demand is weakening according to Nigel Gault, chief US economist at Global Insight.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ukraine's central bank increases interest rates from 10% to 25%. Inflations is at about 17% for April and May. Business activity has partially recovered in safer parts of the country. Efforts are underway to get export of grain out of the country by road and rail with the port of Odessa blocked by Russia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Is time slipping away for Russia to restore what it sees as its special relationship with Ukraine, as Ukraine finds its own identity through its language and independent Orthodox Christian Church since 2019. This WSJ podcast report is by James Marson who lived in Kiev from 2007 to 2012, and Ryan Knutson, with the Archbishop of St Michael's cathedral in Kiev, and the editor of Elle magazine edition in Ukraine joining in.  To understand Ukraine one has to know that Russian is the language of the cities, which means people in Kiev speak Russian. People in the countryside Ukrainian. This is very unusual for a nation and it shows the condition of the country for centuries where intellectuals in cities dominated cultural and political life distant from the people in the countryside. For centuries Ukraine was dominated alternately by either Poland and Lithuania or Russia other than a period of 200 years around 1250-1400 when the Mongols were dominant. The peasants and countryside suffered greatly as in India and other parts of central Europe in the long history till the modern period in 1900.  Russians see their origins in the Kyivan Rus, a state bringing together the different ethnicities Ukrainian and Russian in the period 1000-1240 under the Byzantine Church in Constantinople. Kyiv, the modern capital of Ukraine called Kiev today being the capital of this state. This is the cultural connection that president Putin and Russians see as one they do not want to see drift away. After the Russian state drove out the Mongols in 1240 the northern provinces and Kiev became part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the rest became part of a new Russian state. After 1650 Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire and by 1800 with the partition of Poland was fully made part of the Russian Empire. Russian is now after 1800 the language of the intellectual class in Kiev and the cities, and Ukrainian language persists in the countryside. In 1804 Ukrainian is banned as a language and subject of instruction in schools. The end of the Russian Empire under the Tsars in 1917 ended the ban on the Ukrainian language and a period of respect of the cultures of the different soviet republics including Ukraine ensued. Putin has strong feelings on Kyiv, or modern Kiev, as the place where Russia as a country began. He wrote a 7000 word essay says this report in WSJ in 2010 on this relationship as he sees it.  Yet the period of protests in Kiev since 2010 has resulted in Ukraine building  its own identity as a nation. Magazines in the country are required to use Ukrainian for 50% of their circulation. People in Kiev now use Ukrainian instead of Russian as the sense of national identity is being revived. During 1917-1921 Ukraine fought a war with the Bolsheviks after the Russian Empire collapsed. This history is why Russia is acting now to push for Ukraine not drift completely away. It is also what makes Ukraine different from Poland which has cultural ties to Western Europe. It is why the US or Germany is not willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, as it would over Poland. It is also why Russia may not see war as the best option as about one third of Ukrainians say they will fight to defend their country, according to this report. The situation is complex and this is why both sides want to negotiate some way out in which Russia wants the US and NATO respecting its sense of connection with Ukraine in its history with Kyiv as the place Russian state started, and Russia not going further. Russia's tangible proposal is for no to Ukraine joining NATO or the European Union. The US and Germany want something else- the right of Eastern European nations that suffered from Tsarist or Soviet domination or German Hapsburg domination to finally be able to assert their own right of self-determination as democratic countries. This would include Finland. And also Sweden. Ukraine is not another small Eastern European country. Population is 44 million and it is the second largest by area in Europe after Russia.  Russia may also see the move to bring this up at this time as a way to unify the country against what it sees as threat from NATO. As Brendan Simms of Cambridge notes in his recent book -Europe, France went through a period after 1600 when it needed external danger as a way to unify the country, as much as unity of the country to fight external danger. The economic costs after building Nordstream II pipeline are to0 great for both Russia and Germany, and for the US and Russia during the pandemic, which means there is a real need to find a way out for all sides.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
With its slogan "Expect More, Pay less" Target has tried to combine low prices with moving upmarket, carrying designer merchandise and chic styling without breaking the family budget. Now with the recession and consumers becoming frugal in the USA, Target and its new CEO who took on the role in May 2008, Steinhafel, is looking at Wal-Mart to see how it can also emphasize the low prices in this recessionary climate. With store sales fallig by 10% in early 2009 Target executives were concerned that something needed to be done. And the thing was to bring even lower prices withor making customers feel cheap. Its chief marketing officer natty Francis always believed in the marketing philosophy of the 1952 book about Marshall Field "Give the Lady What She Wants." Question was what the lady wanted in today's environment. Instead of the old aspirational image of the designers behind Target apparel, Francis now put up the idea of how good value can be chic too. Target designers emphasized how the lady can look "frugalista fabulous." The other challenge was introducig groceries in the store. And instead of packaged foods he idea was to introduce fresh foods which have higher margins. Protype grocery stores were put up and the concept launched. And now instead of gradual rollout, Target went hyper local putting fresh food in all 30 Philadelphia stores. And the marketing ads, radio, newspaper circulars, TV everything made Philly residents aware of the move. Sales went up by 5to 10%. Now the concept has proven to work and Target plans to put in in 350 stores in 2010. And Nat Francis thinks Target did not move fast enough considering how quickly consumers have turned frugal. In the new frugal environment Target research showed its working-mom was obsessing about the price of milk not the thigh-high boots, and she was visiting the grocery store twice aweek and Target only 3 times amonth. Showing groceries mattered. Meantime Target's markeing is ore focussed and its creating the perception that Target and Wal-mart are so close on price. Target is actually devoting 75% of its advertising budget to price compared to 25% in 2008. So a 32 inch panel TV is $246, a coffeemaker is $3. Yet Target executives don't want to undo a strategy built up over years of a better customer experience, designer merchandise at lwer prices, something that would differentiate it from Wal-Mart. So the moves may simply be an adjustment to comport with the thriftier savings oriented times....

LyrArc Article Gist
Sindhi sentiment in Pakistan. Behind the calls for democracy and elections sentiment is gathering in the Sindh that supports looking after Sindhi interests. Because the Punjabi majority in Pakistan has dominated the bureaucracy and the military and looked after the interests of the Punjab. The nature of the Pakistani state not providing safeguards and devolution of power to the provinces, there is some basic underlying tension even without the problems that have been piled on it by the migration of Pashtuns and Punjabis into Hyderabad and Karanchi, and the killings of 2 popular Sindhi politicians in the Bhutto clan, and the army's suppression of a Sindhi revolt in 1983 with harsh treatment of Sindhis. Now the aftermath of the new Bhutto killing is taking a new turn with calls for Sindh and its 38 million people to go its own way. The Bhuttos have not supported it but the sentiment is now appearing to take a life of its own, disregarding Zardari and Bilwal, spouse and son of Benazir, who are said to be of Baluchi descent. The large dam on the upper reaches of the Indus river benefits military officers who own land there but shrinks water supply to the Sindh which is on the lower reaches of the Indus river. This further aggravates tensions. The province is now run by Punjabi associates of Musharraf and this does not help matters as Sindhi interests may have been ignored. If there is sentiment for a separate state, the state of Pakistan that was built in 1947 and how it has shaped itself with Punjabi military running things is not designed to handle that kind of upheaval very well. It lacks the checks and balances, devolution of powers to provinces enough to keep local representation strong, and the avenues of expressing sentiment being kept open for local ethnic communities. The Pakistan military is strong and there are nuclear weapons, but how effective is that if the goodwill and sentiment of the Sindhis is lost. In the long term the only hope may be for an economic union much like that of the EU in South Asia in which the Punjab, Baluchistan, and the Sindh could coexist with India and among themselves in whatever form the political aspect of states takes shape, making the politcal shape of states less relevant, and like the EU putting the years of internecine strife behind them. Looking towards a better economic future, open trade, investment, communication and infrastructure links in Southern Asia and parts of Central Asia and Iran. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
New GI Bill taking effect August 2009, has not received much attention but it will help bring more equity into the system and provide better opportunities for university education to those who serve in the armed forces and thus help increase mobility in the USA, with those previously unable to afford an education or restricted to small community colleges able to take advantage of the best opportunties they can work hard for and use their potential and abilities. It makes for a more educated and effective military as young people with high school diplomas are more likely to take advantage of military service for 3 years to get a good university education. So its quite probable that more people and better and more intelligent and able recruits would join the military service at the same time that some of the military recruits who have already served three years go to colleges to take advantage of the new GI Bill. It costs the military $5.7 billion in incentives and other recruitment costs to meet the demand for service personnel over the next 5 years, but this can now be used towards the cost of the GI Bill. Also there is some fairness and equity in the idea of the GI Bill, and something that would appeal to candidates like Obama who believes that the income gaps in the country and the educational gaps in the country between the affluent and the those struggling at the lower end of the class structure has widened considerably in the last two decades. See Obama's interview with the WSJ on June 17, 2008, during his visit to Flint, Michigan, for an economic theme speech. Previously the educational assistance went upto only $39,000 and could not be passed onto a spouse or child, something that candidate MCain added to the bill. It also includes a monthly stipend for living expenses in addition to the tution, so its fair and generous program for GI's, and may bring some of the benefits in bringing mobility between the classes and new infusion of energy through a more equitable system for young people who may otherwise be left out of opportunities for a better education and better job opportunities even after risking their lives for service. Getting in the brighter more motivated for education people who otherwise might not opt for the military who then pursue higher education will help the miltary improve quality of personnel and help bring more dynamism into society with their energy and enthusuasm and hard work and discipline....

LyrArc Article Gist
Steven Ford reads an eulogy written by his father Gerald Ford for the funeral of Jimmy Carter. Likewise Jimmy Carter read the eulogy he wrote for Gerald Ford who passed away in 2002. Both families grew to become very close, so close that it is difficult to describe in words. How was this even possible one may ask considering the harsh rhetoric of the Ford-Carter debates and the pardoning of Richard Nixon for Watergate after impeachment of a Republican president by Congress who had served as Vice President for 8 years under Eisenhower 1952-1960 and lost only to Kennedy in 1960.  Today we think of "fascist," "stupid," and "criminal" as ugly DJT and the Harris Clinton rhetoric.  How about "improper"  "ill-advised," "incompetent," and "morally, politically, and intellectually bankrupt," in the Carter Ford rhetoric. Does this mean there is still hope? After all president Biden said he had invited president Trump DJT to the White House on the morning of Jan 20 and will be there at the Inauguration on the same day. That is one way to make America great again. Already Senator Thune who grew up in a small town in Montana in a two room home has embraced Carter's humble beginnings in the heartland. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The second proposal by the DJT administration is described by the WSJ as being one that may be worse than the first for Ukraine as it opens up repayment of the money US gave as aid to Ukraine to defend against Russian invasion. DJT administration maintains it is $350 billion not the $100 billion Ukraine and the EU say Ukraine received in US aid. In this report Ukrainians say the Ukraine parliament would never be able to pass such an agreement and it sets up more difficulties in US Ukraine peace negotiations if released. The US proposal would set up an entity called the US Ukraine Reconstruction Fund. This fund would have first right to all infrastructure and minerals projects in Ukraine. It's approval would be required for other investors to invest in Ukraine infrastructure and mineral projects. It is written as a commercial agreement, not as a nation to nation agreement. Scott Bessent who runs Treasury is a finance executive overseeing the negotiation and this proposal. He worked for George Soros Fund and provided advice for the bet on the British pound during a difficult time for the UK economy that led to a billion dollar gain for Soros Fund. DJT is a real estate developer. As a result their thinking is based on their experience in the US real estate and capital markets.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's political scene is fragmented with two far right parties one the League under Matteo Salvini with a base in the north and the other called Brothers of Italy, under Giorgia Meloni with a base in the south. In Italian politics of the last decade popularity of a party lasts on the right or the left remains for 3-4 years before fading. In sequence after the fading away of Berluconi's party, voters swung to the socialist party, then the party of Beppe Grillo a comedian called Five Star Movement, followed by the League and Salvini on the far right, and now Brothers of Italy. At no time is any such party having at the height of its popularity having more than 20-25% support. Brothers of Italy under Meloni is the newcomer with 23% support mostly in the south, Rome, Palermo, Sardinia.    Brothers of Italy is different from Salvini's party as Meloni is staunchly pro-EU and supports Italy taking a strong stand on Ukraine. The withdrawal of Salvini from the national unity government led by Mr. Draghi, former head of the European Central Bank, and formed during the pandemic, led to its collapse last week. Meloni benefited by being the main party in the opposition during that time, so that it is not clear that if she forms a government after the September election whether Italy will still have a stable government. The difference between Salvini's League with connections to Russia and Meloni's EU positions means far right politics is itself fragmented and the socialist parties are within a point of the Brothers of Italy. Mr. Berluconi's Forza remains a fringe player with 8%. With 200 million euros of EU assistance Italy decided to form a government under Mr. Draghi in a kind of national unity government during the pandemic so that these funds could be managed effectively, and to tackle pandemic related problems. Some of Meloni's appeal may come from broadening her appeal by policies that support nurseries and mothers, the family, and from her working class background in Rome at a time when the pandemic has created serious economic problems for families. Like France Italy is divided with Meloni playing the kind of role Le Pen has in France of being for working class yet facing competition for working class votes from the socialist parties that are close rivals for support. The Five Star and League parties in northern Italy have their own local support base. ...