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$148 billion in cash savings from tax provisions and full expensing of investments in Big Beautiful Act for 369 companies, Amazon $15.7 billion in cash savings, Microsoft 12.5 billion from Big Beautiful Act 2025. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the full and immediate expensing provisions for investments by companies as a key provision that would take the US economy forward in 2025.

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China's strategy appears to be to allow the transfer of TikTok ownership to an American consortium and focus it's efforts on renegotiating the 30% tariff on China and China's response of 10% on the US. China is making an effort to protect industries in China that have surplus production. China wants DJT to meet Xi for a Summit in Beijing instead of South Korea as the US has suggested. And Xi  offers to make a visit to Washington DC to improve relations. Scott Bessent and the USTR Greer in negotiations  with the Chinese trade negotiator Vice Premier of Economic Policy, He Lifeng, in Madrid, have come up with an agreement. The US COngress has passed legislation requiring the sale of TikTok to US owners because of sensitive information issues. China now reversed its policy in April when it opposed this as it now sees little advantage in that policy and can concentrate on better trade terms from DJT. A stumbling block is the flow of fentanyl for which DJT imposed 20% of the 30% tariff on China, the other 10% being standard for all countries. ...

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This report shows how the H1-B visa system as it operated for many years till 2025 undercut wages of American workers in the computer and software engineering fields. Changes are being made to accomplish the original aims of such a program. More critical is the number of jobs over a span of years that are lost to US born citizens- in just 5 years 300,000 US born talented engineers and the 3 million workers they could train would simply not be there to power America's reindustrialization and re-modernization 2025-2030. The same is true for India as 300,000 India's talented engineers and the 3 million workers they could train would simply not be there to power India's industrialization and modernization 2025-2030. This hurts the modernization of the two of the most important economies of the world to the year 2030, which would be profoundly felt by 2035. As part of many actions taken by both the US and India this could lead to shrinking the development speed and development gap with China for the US and India to 2035. ...

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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

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Allan Meltzer says a Fed QE III woud be bad monetary policy. He puts several questions to Bernanke- how the Fed and Ben Bernanke can know now what is the right interest rate policy in mid 2013, and what reason can the Fed give for adding excess reserves when U.S. banks have $1.6 trillion in idle reserves at the Fed. Meltzer cautions the Fed and other policymakers not to pay attention only to short term forecasts, which can be susceptible to large errors. And calls for attention to the long term consequences of their actions. One point he emphasizes is that the unemployment problem cannot be resolved with short term policy actions nor can it be resolved in a short time. It will take population growth, falling housing prices and rising rents to create opportunities for new construction. Another change is the transition to a less consumption driven and more export oriented economy. This transition which has started will also take time. He urges the Congress and the administration to focus on: reducing corporate tax rates by closing loopholes, long-term reductions in entitlement spending, a 5 year moratatorium on new regulations, and the Fed adopting an explicit inflation target between 0% and 2%....

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This report in WSJ looks at the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs retained by president Biden as the US seeks to reduce its overdependence on Chinese imports and bring back American manufacturing. This followed misguided policies of previous administrations since Clinton that weakened American manufacturing strengths. Have the US tariffs on Chinese goods worked? The WSJ graph with information from US Census Bureau shows that imports from China in 2022 going down to the levels in 2007 of about 16-17% as a share of US imports, down from a high of 21% before the Trump tariffs halted a rapidly rising curve. Imports from Germany, South Korea and Japan in 2022 were down slightly hovering around 4.5%. Imports increased from Canada and Mexico, the US's traditional partners in North America, around 13.5% as a share of US imports for each country. Also increasing were imports from Vietnam. Some of the imports from Vietnam are Chinese products shipped through Vietnam to evade tariffs, and it is not clear whether the figures from Vietnam have been adjusted for this. President Biden is looking at different scenarios in an effort to tackle inflation. One supported by Janet Yellen, an economist at US Treasury is for the US to relax some of the China tariffs. Most economists in previous administrations including Yellen failed to understand what surrendering American manufacturing to China on the scale and speed that happened would do to communities across America that depended on factory jobs. The devastation of these communities has led to increased divisions in America, weakened American manufacturing, and led to outflow of technologies vital for national security and national well being.  Republican senators, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan are opposed to any relaxation of tariffs. Studies show the removal of the tariffs would have only a small impact on the consumer price inflation index reducing inflation by 0.26%. Lifting some tariffs on school supplies and summer bicycles as proposed by the US Chamber of Commerce would have little or no impact on the consumer price index for inflation. This is because the inflation is triggered by oil and gas price increases stemming from the Russian policies and invasion of Ukraine. This has also aggravated food and grocery costs  through blocking of agricultural imports from Ukraine. An additional factor was the increased demand after the pandemic easing in 2022, but that demand is already easing in July with glut in inventories at Walmart and Target, and excess warehouse capacity at Amazon. It would also send the wrong signal to China that the tariffs imposed by president Trump after a Section 301 trade investigation and based on improper loss of technologies to China are not being taken seriously by the US, says Republican Senator Hagerty of Tennessee. The Labor advisory committee to the US Trade Representative Katherine Tai also opposes any such move after the serious damage done to US workers and to US national well being and security. This happened under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations with failed trade policies that ceded manufacturing to China. ...

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US shale oil companies are returning more cash to investors than investing in increasing oil production in 2022. As oil demand increases with an embargo on Russian oil in Europe, production by US shale oil companies in 2022 has increased only slightly. WSJ reports that 9 out of the largest 10 oil companies in the US returned $9.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the first quarter of 2022, 54% more than they invested in new oil development.

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The US is requesting talks with China at the World Trade Organization with the objective of ending hundreds of millions of dollars of subsidies China gives to increase wind energy production. The wind power grants are being targeted because Chinese producers are required to use domestic parts to be eligible for the grant, which range from $6.7 million to $22.5 million. In the last 5 years foreign companies' share of the Chinese market has dropped from 79% to 13%, according to Goldman Sachs, with China's efforts to promote Chinese manufacturers. The renewable energy market in China is expected to reach $100 billion by 2020. And wind energy is the fastest growing sector. The effort comes after the US Steelworkers union alleged that China was using import substitution subsidies in violation of WTO rules, in a 5800 page petition. Steelworkers union president, Leo Gerard, says this doesn't address most of the billions of dollars of clean-tech subsidies and other support provided by the Chinese government. Gerard says the goal is not litigation but to put an end to these practices that are trade distorting, and act as a barrier to US exports to China....

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U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney is questioned about the depth of his beliefs by John Harwood, at the November 9, 2011, Oakland University, Michigan, televised presidential debate. Harwood asked Romney if his positions on issues "are rooted in something deeper than the fact that you are running for office." Romeny's response was that he had been married for 42 years, and "been in the same church all my life," and worked at the same firm Bain & Co. and Bain Capital, for 25 years, that he was a man of steadiness and constancy." On key economic issues such as revival of the auto industry and foreclosures, both major issues in Michigan, Romney continued to maintain that the loans made by the government to Chrysler and GM were a mistake. Oakland University is only half a mile from Chrysler headquarters. This view was challenged by Rick Snyder, Republican governor of the state of Michigan, who said- "it wasn't just one or two companies that were at risk, but the entire national suply chain." On foreclosures Romney maintained his position that the government should let the market work, even if this means millions of foreclosures. Romney said: "Markets work. When you have government play its heavy hand, markets blow up and people get hurt," putting the blame for the housing crisis on Fannie Me and Freddie Mac, agencies with a government guarantee that encouraged indiscriminate housing loans. ...

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Jenna Wortham asks the question do tech companies have undue influence in Washington especially when they are pursuing their own ecosystem expansion, citing an example from Facebook app Free Basics. There is another question that comes with the election campaigns of Sanders, Trump and Clinton, and issues of upward mobility. With this issue raised also by Janet Yellen of the U.S. Federal Reserve of the loss of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. at a conference in Oct. 2014. This question is whether the tech world in California can be sensitive to the problems of cities depending on manufacturing in the midwest and the eastern U.S. that are recovering from deep recession, because the environments are so different. Working in the tech world in California is so different from the rest of the country, almost a different way of life. It also has deep political implications, because the priorities are different. Sometimes as with the TPP trade agreement they may conflict- this includes an industry such as the auto industry that also is incorporating technology at an accelerating pace and which has employed many times more people than does the tech industry in California, and in many states. This leads to president Obama's support for the TPP trade agreement, an agreement which analysis by some experts shows is more beneficial to the tech industry in California than to the auto industry in the midwestern states. The NYT's Krugman says overall for the U.S. it is marginally helpful as most of the gains in free trade are already behind us. See Lyrarc using search terms-Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, Trans Pacific Partnership. Yet it remains a mystery why president Obama has made it a part of his legacy, when Hillary Clinton realizing the issues in this election has clearly stated she will not support it. It has other implications as well, as it has given rise to demagogic rhetoric in this election, where other issues far more significant such as the condition of western democracy are at stake. ...

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Keller says that Fox News has contributed to the corrosiveness that has affected public dialogue in the U.S. He admits that the prestigious urban newspapers like the Washington Post and the New York Times can be condescending and too open to consider points of view that do not have merit. Yet, he says, they are different from Fox News in that they are self-critical and take up different points of view outside their own, an openness that Fox News lacks. A little research shows another side of the Times- during its early years the Times with a scoop of its own helped put the boss of Tammany Hall, which dominated New York politics in the late twentieth century, in jail. The journalists of the Times, even though they have their own screwups, always must carry the added responsibility of living up to a long heritage.

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Share of mortgages at least 30 days past due declined to 6.39% in the 4th quarter 2013, down from 7.09% a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Foreclosure inventory declined to 2.9% for 4th quarter 2013. Three fourths of the troubled loans are from the period before 2007. The improved economic situation and lower unemployment has helped. Also helping is the increase in prices, with home prices up 8.4% in Dec. 2013 over the prior year, according to Black Knight Financial Services. The price increase has reduced the number of homes "under water"- owing more than the homes are worth- from 19% in Jan 2013 to 11.4% in October, according to Black Knight. Banks have also tightened their lending practices. The progress is uneven with California and Arizona, some of the worst hit states doing better in 2013. Judicial states such as New York and Florida, where courts have to approve foreclosure by banks, are making gradual improvement. About 1.5% of California homes were in foreclosure by the end of 2013, compared to 8.5% in Florida, according to MBA. In 2014 price improvements are expected to slow, and the 10% of homes in various stages of delinquency or foreclosure still remain as a hangover from the housing crisis that slows U.S. economic recovery....

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Germany's increased borrowing and tax breaks for business to increase growth- Germany's version of DJT's US Tax Cuts Bill.

Chancellor Merz and Finance Minister Klingbeil of the two main parties CDU and SPD have put forward this bill to increase growth and productivity, with increased investment from business and government. The debt brake in the German constitution was taken out for increased borrowing.

Merz told the German parliament-

“None of us is doing this lightly. We know that this will place a considerable burden on future budgets, including interest obligations in future budgets. But the alternative — doing nothing, not enabling investment, especially from the private sector in Germany — is not a better option.”

Germany like the US is taking an approach of investing for growth to chart a new future.

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The inheritance tax in US kicks in at $15 million Swiss reject inheritance tax at $62 million in referendum.

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The January 6 panel of the US Congress issues its report on the events of January 6 2020, and the effort to overturn the results of the US presidential election in November 2019 that elected Joe Biden.

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Inflation is outpacing wages in the US by 4% in July 2022. Consumers are cutting back on spending. The US Fed is looking at another 0.75 percentage point increase in the interest rate in July 2022.

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The rapid spread of emoji chracters originating from Japan in our daily text conversations. This is bringing emotional state into daily conversations with a simple click on a smartphone. Shigetaka Kurita a designer for Docomo in Japan noticed the use of a picture of the sun in Japan for sunny weather not the use of words as in the U.S., and the use of a bulb over a head for someone with a smart idea, hearts common in Japan for affection, and this led him to the idea of creating a whole set of characters for different moods and emotional states to use in mobile conversation. Apple was the first to adopt them on its smartphones after the emoji were already popular in Japan for about 10 years.

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The best exercise routine is a consistent routine, says this health expert in The Guardian. Beware she says of sugary drink highs or coffee in excess to serve as pick ups during the day when energy is low. Instead do some short stretching or exercise routine even if it is only 10 minutes. It does not have to be a long or strenuous exercise, don't let the ads of young people doing strenuous routines fool you, says this expert. What is important is to keep doing it, to stretch and move around even if this is for a short time. Consistent routine is critical.

Carbohydrates, whole grain breads are not to be frowned on, she says, as this provides extra energy, and is healthy when balanced with protein and fat in the diet.

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China imports from the US only $143 billion and much of this is soyabeans (US farmers), petroleum oil products (buyers in Europe and Asia), aircraft (Boeing). Farmers were compensated from the tariff revenues in the first term, oil products would be shipped to Asia and LNG to Europe to make up for loss of supplies from Russia. India will take up the Boeing production as it's economy expands to levels China, Japan had earlier. The action is a last resort as 490,000 lives were lost in 12 years from the fentanyl shipped raw materials from China and drug trafficking gangs in Mexico processing it in labs to ship across the long US border or Canadian border into the US. China and Mexico have not stopped the flow of fentanyl into the US. How much is 490,000 American lives worth? That is 5 times the lives lost in the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined of 100,000 lives lost in both wars. China exported $436 billion to the US in 2023 increasing by about 6% from prior year. Integrated Circuits alone were more than all US exports combined to China at $154 billion. Electric batteries another $80 billion. Computers and office machine parts were $54 billion. Where will China ship all these products. It is brave but it is easier to stop fentanyl flows out of China, and cut all the trade barriers, reverse state policy to dominate key industrial sectors in State Planning. The problem in the stock market response is that this is a trade war which it is NOT. It is about National Security if this is allowed to continue as Clinton, Bush, Obama have allowed to happen US is in real danger of becoming a second rate power in the world, at which point the world will become a dangerous place with India, China, Russia, Germany and other states having no constraints to create future wars without US to set some basic principles of world peace. UN itself would not exist without Cordell Hull and FDR. The world we know will be GONE. US Navy will not be able to build the ships it needs in USA if this deindustrialization is allowed to continue.    ...

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The impact of the investigations into the Autonomy Inc. acquisition, the Barclay's rate rigging for LIBOR, and the UBS London trading desk's huge bets by a young trader in the twenties, have dented the reputation for integrity of London markets.

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Researchers David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Gordon Hanson of the University of California, San Diego, and David Dorn of the Center for Monetary and Fiscal Studies in Madrid, in independent research, studied the impact of trade on 722 clusters of interrelated counties in the U.S. They focussed on the surge in Chinese imports and found a pattern. Counties with higher exposure to Chinese import growth showed higher unemployment and higher expenditures by the government for unemployment benefits, food stamps and disability benefits. Their calculations show the increased government payments amount to one to two thirds of the gains from trade with China. This does not include the losses suffered by people losing jobs who deplete savings as they look for new jobs. Hanson studied the effects of trade and Chinese imports in the 1990's and found the effects were relatively small. This time the effects are large and show counties that lacked local investments in industrial machinery and technologies in which China was still playing catchup such as Caterpillar in Peoria, Illinois, and Boeing in Everett, Washington, were most susceptible to higher jobless rates and in need of government support payments. Autor and Hanson found that from 2000-2007, communities in the 75th percentile- ones with greater exposure to Chinese import growth than 75% of all communities- saw a manufacturing jobless rate of about one-third more than communities in the 25th percentile. The government payments mean higher taxes or larger deficits are needed to support these communities, and long periods of unemployment reduce the incentive to work. Michael Spence, a Nobel prize winning economist from New York University, says the world has never seen such a rapid pace of growth as China experienced between 2000-2011, with rates approaching 12% in some years, making past experience and prevailing theories on trade an insufficient guide to what is happening....

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Zelensky's speech to the Joint Session of the US Congress comes 81 years after Winston Churchill's speech to the US Congress in December 1941 after the bombing of Pearl Harbor by the Japanese.

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Nippon Steel's planned acquisition of US Steel faces scrutiny from the White House and US agencies. Lael Brainard says the company is "iconic" and calls for "serious scrutiny" for the $14 billion deal.

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The longest US Open Tennis match? 5 hours and 35 minutes between Dan Evans of the US and Karen Khachanov of Russia just yesterday August 26, 2024. The first three sets were tie breakers. Dan Evans was down 0-4 in the fifth set and came out to win it 6-4. At 4 down he thought he was out and just kept on fighting. Fans gave a rousing ovation. Evans says "it was one hell of a match. I just want to go to bed." 

• Set 1 - 68 minutes
  
  
• Set 2 - 67 minutes
  
  
• Set 3 - 72 minutes
  
  
• Set 4 - 67 minutes
  
  
• Set 5 - 61 minutes
  
  

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Abercrombie & Fitch sees a sharp drop in sales and 33% decline in profits in the second quarter of 2013. CEO, Mike Jeffries, says younger consumers are struggling and not fully a part of the recovery in consumer spending in the U.S. Other retailers appealing to a younger demographic, Aerospatiale and American Eagle Outfitters are also seeing decline in U.S. sales. Many younger consumers are weighed down by student debt and a weak job market.