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Problems of declining production at the Cantarell oil field in Mexico have been known for some time. Now President Calderon is trying to take on this issue. Brazil's Petrobras reached an impasse also some years back but was able to make the reforms, see the link to Petrobras. See the link in the WSJ for 8/30/07 on Petrobras . In 1995 President Cardozo of Brazil pushed through reforms after a oil workers strike at Petrobras. Upto that time Petrobras had problems similar to Pemex with underinvestment, state meddling in its affairs and finances, and too much bureaucracy and inefficiency. Can Calderon get reform for Pemex. Which amount of Pemex revenues should go to the government, how much should Pemex have so that it can adequately fund investment in new oil field exploration offshore, how to overcome bureaucracy and inefficient management, and how to arrange board representation so that Pemex can transform itself like Petrobras did. Some of the answers to these questions are emerging. Calderon wants to prepare his political position as the reform of Pemex is something that previous Presidents have failed to tackle. To do this the Senate's Energy Committee is holding a private debate on the issues. Calderon may try to forge a consensus with the Institutional Nacional Party, as he did with pension reforms if an all party consensus eludes him. Already in reforms of public finances that Calderon has pushed through Pemex will pay 71.5 centavos on every peso of oil extracted by 2012, instead of 79 centavos as royalty payments to the government. One reform being considered is to givePemex control of its own budget. At this time $10 billion a year goes back to the government on top of the royalty tax payments. Another reform would open up refining, transport and distribution to private enterprise. A think tank expert at CIDAC in Mexico City thinks that this can be done without reforming the constitution as was done to allow private investment in electricity generation in the 1990's. The same methods could be used to promote risk sharing contracts with other companies to bring in new technology for oil exploration, including companies from emerging countries like Petrobras, Petrochina and others, given Mexican's bias against the western oil majors. Especially because Petrobras has proven expertise in deep water drilling offshore. There is no question that Mexico is falling behind. One energy expert at the National Autonomous University estimates that the density of drilling rigs in the American portion of the Gulf of Mexico is 20 times greater than in the Mexican part, with Mexico having drilled only 20 exploratory wells in water deeper than 980 feet. in other areas like refining Pemex has not built a new refinery in 20 years, and imports 40% of its gasoline from US refineries, and its 7500 gasoline stations need expansion as Mexico's economy expands. Cardozo's transformation came with setting up an independent Board of Directors and putting an investment banker in charge. International oil companies were allowed into Brazil as a way to get Petrobras to compete with western oil companies and increase efficiency. And Cardozo got Petrobras listed on the New York Stock Exchange selling some 16% of Petrobras in the capital markets. This listing ensured transparency and improved corporate governance, as about 50 analysts now tracked Petrobras. ...

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Russian oil policy at work in towns like Kalyazin, 100 miles north of Moscow, and across Russia. Gasification program is being extended, plan is to increase coverage from 53% to 60% of the people in Russia in the 2005-2007 program. Increase prices to discourage wasteful use and promote energy saving technologies in cooperation with German companies so that more gas is available for export at higher world market prices, especially to the European market. Use profits to promote exploration and increase exports. Germany gets 45% of its gas from Russia and has built close relationships with Gazprom. See the article in BW, July 31, 2006, Jack Ewing, "The Lines that Bind" and references to German-Russian ties: 1) Gerhard Schroeder, former Chancellor, as managing director of the pipeline joint venture, the $5.7 billion North European Gas pipeline formed by partners Ruhrgas, BASF and Gazprom. Ruhrgas owns 6.4% of Gazprom, and its CEO Burckhard Bergmann sits on Gazprom's Board. 2) The survey by Berlin pollster Forsa shows that 75% of Germans support the pipeline project, 45% consider Gazprom a reliable energy supplier vs. the 26% who consider Saudi Arabia as dependable. 3) At an industrial fair in Hanover German business leaders supportive of Gazprom as follows. Klaus Mangold for Daimler management board member considers it " a totally normal market economic process" for Russia to have threatended to supply China with the same gas if European countries cultivate other sources of energy supply. Michael Gloss, German Minister of Economics and Technology, says its good thing to have a neighbor close to home as a supplier. Ruhrgas, Essen based, is a subsidiary of Dusseldorf company E.O.N., and Wintershall, Kassel based, is a subsidiary of BASF. Wintershall management Board member Rainer Seele, speaks of not just partnerships but friendships. 4) Interlocking ownership of assets between Gazprom and the German companies. Gazprom 35% ownership of the assets in the WinGas Joint Venture, Wintershall gets 35% of the equity and 25% of voting shares in the gas field that supports the pipeline. Ruhrgas traded assets in Hungary for 25% ownership of the same gas field. 5) The German relationship under Merkel changes little because she has no options, German suppliers have long term contracts with Gazprom. This article shows how the Russian policy is being shaped on the ground in small towwns like Kalyazin. The one on Gazprom about "The Lines that Bind," shows how the policy is to build relationships with German suppliers, interlocking ownership of assets, increasing the supplies to Germany from the current 45% to over 50 %. Using German investment in joint venture with Gazprom for exploration and development and building pipelines and securing long term contracts at higher prices. Note the reference in article "Can Gazprom Keep the Gas On?" by BW's Moscow Bureau Chief, Jason Bush, BW July 31, 2006- ironically the policy that caused a lot of controversy between Russia and Ukraine about Russian energy prices will actually provide Gazprom with more profits to put into exploration. Forecasts referred to by Bush show that it is expected to earn $20 billion on $62 billion in revenues. ...

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Jena McGregor's interview with Ben Horowitz of Silicon Valley. Horowitz says its best to keep the founder as CEO, because its harder to teach a professional CEO to innovate, than it is to teach a founder to be a CEO. Better to take the advice of one football sports team owner to his coach when told about injuries and problems: "Nobody Cares. Just coach your team." Best to focus on the task ahead than to get overburdened by thinking about the hurdles. Many companies make the mistake of overhiring and finding they are in trouble when business falls off. At that time a moment of honesty is essential, even though a trust with the employee has to be broken, one cannot hide or blame the employee- only by saying we screwed up and planned the business the wrong way, can one make an honest effort to recover. Not making the honest assessment and being frank with oneself and colleagues can be fatal for a young company. Andy Grove of Intel, cites this example in his book "Only the Paranoid Survive," - to shift out of the memory chip business and close plants was essential once it was clear the Japanese had an unsurmountable edge, a long term move into microprocessors had to start now for Grove and Intel in 1986. An outsider's impersonal logic and no emotional involvement had to be Grove's mindset, as if he was replacing himself as the new head of the business, going out one door and coming back in. Panasonic's moves in 2013 under CEO Kazuhiro Tsuga to exit the plasma television business and focus on new business opportunities, including electric car batteries, is a recent example. On motivation or purpose: no big vision has to be announced and repeated- it is enough to make being a good company at what you do the end goal, make craftsmanship or doing the work you enjoy and can contribute in the end goal and purpose. The modest and straightforward is enough reason for existence and doing very well. How important is training? A lot, a great deal more than one can imagine. People can be talented but not productive. Companies that have good and extensive training programs can do much better than companies that lack these programs. Managers who can continue this with on the job training are also valuable to build on training programs. Sony's Akio Morita personally interviewed new hires, new engineers joining the company at all levels- it is really the contribution of the thousands of engineers that he personally interviewed that built Sony into a global pioneer in electronics in his time. He says the future of the company is determined by the people the company hires. Goes even further, by saying the fate of the company is in the hands of the youngest recruit on the staff. Horowitz finds Jim Collins as management writer a bit abstract and mushy, he prefers Intel's Andy Grove and his books such as High Output Management, as more specific about how to manage business. One could add "Made In Japan," and Morita to the list....

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The story of a Russian startup company MeshNetics, that had a research project called Golden Box with a team of software programmers. It succumbed to the global financial crisis as it hit Russia and with it dreams of a new wireless technology that would help utilities keep track of energy conservation and other uses. No new investors could be found and the Russian investors cut the funding. Even western investors could not make the investments. Programmers like Bagrak, 27, from Berkeley, California, who worked at Google on an internship and came back to Russia to build its high tech sector. Luzhetsky, 26, from Obninsk, a city built by the Soviets for nuclear and military scientists, which fell into decay and poverty in the post soviet period, this was his first programming job after being educated in the Soviet Union. Mr Grinkug, 57, from a generation of the Soviet period that considered science a religion, he headed the 12 programmer team working on the Golden Box project. The project three ers in the making was expected to release in early 2010. Suvorov who headed MesNetics, who saw his work as part of the move by President Medvedev who came into power in the spring of 2008 to take Russia away from dependence on oil, with investment of $5 billion in a state corporation for nanotechnology. Anatoly Karachinsky, President of the Russian internet technology company IBS Group, who spun off MeshNetics using the brightest talent from his software development team and financed it with his venture fund Oradell Capital. First the optimism in the face of difficulty in the fall of 2008, as the global crisis began to hit Russia, then in October the message to Suvorov that he had to look for a new investor. Then the cuts, first 10% of jobs gone, nine days late a dozen more fired, then the shutdown phase. One person fired after coffee with Suvurov, as things moved quickly. Alexei Rybakov, director of the division that makes the ZigBit, calls 50 investors aday, makiung every kind of pitch, practical, global, patriotic. Grinkug packs up his things, 40 years of codes fit into a few CD's , a few programmers are retained if things change, but for Grinkug the Golden Project he says, will probably die in his head. Its mind boggling how mistakes and unethical behaviour in the banking systems in the west can wash ashore in emerging countries like Russia, and wash away what little stability to build anew life has been achieved in a few years after the 1998 collapse of the ruble and the Russian economy. Its also a contrast between the dreams, hopes and aspirations and the innocence of ordinary young Russian tech engineers and the swings of reality that surround them, of poverty and collapse in early post soviet Russia, then optimism , and now a new kind of reality trying to salvage what has been achieved, and the difficulties in forging a new future that goes beyond 120 million people collecting around a oil wellhead....

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The tense atmosphere in the talks between the Obama White House and Congressional leaders to achieve deficit reduction and raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell offered a way out of the stalemate in talks between the Obama White House and Republican leaders Boehner and Cantor. McConnell's proposal designed to meet the August 2nd 2011 deadlinefor raising the U.S. debt limit is to give the President new authority to raise the federal debt limit. It would place the entire responsibility for raising the debt limit on the President. Under this proposal Republicans would not have to vote to raise the debt limit. Republicans can then shift the effort for large spending cuts to the congressional appropriations process.

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Krauthammer says he favors the Boehner Plan because the two stage debt ceiling hike will give time for negotiations and public scrutiny of plans for entitlement and tax reforms. He is critical of the Reid Plan because more than half of the $2 trillion deficit reduction under the plan comes from not continuing surge spending in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next 10 years, which he calls outrageous and fictional savings. The lack of Obama's own plan even after setting up and receiving the report of the Bowles-Simpson deficit commission is a sore point for him and other observers, demonstrating a stark failure to lead. Tea party advocates will need a new mandate in 2012 where they control more than just the House of Representatives to push for their plan of aggressive deficit reduction and a balanced budget. Krauthammer sees the Obama stimulus, auto bailouts, health-care reform, financial regulation, and the current battle over deficit spending as a large Keynesian gamble which has failed to revive the economy. A choice on limiting government or a different set of policies should now be left to voters to decide....

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Lawrence Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, writes on August 2, the day the debt ceiling deal passed the U.S. Congress. His reaction to the deal is one of relief, cynicism and economic anxiety. Relief that the deal does no immediate damage to the economy, which he says is no small achievement. This comes from not denting the U.S. safety net of Medicaid, Social Security and other social programs in the midst of high unemployment. And raising the debt ceiling through 2012 avoids a repeat of the kind of tense negotiations that took place recently. Cynicism because with the revised information from the Commerce Department of 0.4% growth in the first quarter and 1.4% growth in the second quarter of 2011, the new forecast of U.S. budget deficits would be much higher in the years further out. A mere loss of one half percentage point in the annual rate of growth could add $1 trillion dollars to the national debt in 2021. Summers points out that Congress votes annually on discretionary spending and a current Congress cannot control what a future Congress does. Caps and sequester deals can be reformulated in 2013 by a new Congress. This deal says Summers has only confirmed the lower levels of spending already negotiated for 2011 and 2012, even though the estimates show $1 trillion in deficit reduction. For the remaining $1.2 trillion in reductions to be negotiated by the "super-committee" there is no baseline for these cuts- it is not stated whether this baseline is with the Bush high income tax cuts included or excluded. His economic anxiety comes from the low rate of growth in the first half of 2011 which suggest an economy at close to a standstill. He sees a one in three chance of a U.S. recession in the absence of any efforts to spur growth. Martin Feldstein was quoted on television business channels on August 2, saying he sees a 50% chance of the economy slipping back into a recession. Steps Summers advocates are a non-extension of the Bush high-income tax cuts which would add $1 trillion to deficit reduction, some entitlement reform, extension of the payroll tax cut, extension of unemployment insurance, and infrastructure maintenance....

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Marchionne's major achievement is the genuine integration of Fiat's operations with Chrysler's operations using the strengths of both parts of the operation. Daimler showed little interest in doing this and the result was a failure of the merger between Daimler and Chrysler. Another aspect is the use of Fiat's Alfa Romeo and Maserati models to build new Chrysler vehicles. The new Dodge Dart which gives 40 miles per gallon and which gives Chrysler entry into the small car market, is based on the chassis and technology of Fiat's Alfa Romeo brand. Another vehicle of this type is the Maserati Kubang, an affluent buyer SUV based on the Jeep Grand Cherokee.

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Parallels between the Taft, Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson election campaigns of 1910 and 1912, and the campaigns of 2010 and 2012, drawn by a T.R. biographer. He points to a tumultuous period ahead as lobbyists, outside interests, and the political parties and their supporters battle it out to set the direction of the country.

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The Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Bureau of Investigation respond to inquiries by the New York Times on how adequately their agencies have responded to the financial crisis of 2008. The inquiries relate to whether these agencies have conducted the prosecutions of senior executives of financial companies that are necessary to ensure there is no recurrence of the behaviours in financial markets that led to the crisis.

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This editorial in the WSJ argues against Trade Representative Lighthizer's move to increase the percentage of North American content in a vehicle so that it creates more jobs. Currently Nafta rules require 62.5% of a duty free vehicle be made in North America. Lighthizer wants to lower the content coming from Asia or Europe. This is not favored by Canada and Mexico and it makes Mexico less competitive than it is now.

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Friedman reviews Acemoglu and Robinson's new book, "Why Nations Fail." Acemoglu says that nations fail when wealth and opportunities are concentrated in the hands of few people, that a condition for societies to succeed is to create opportunities for more people. For this to happen it is important to create inclusive political and economic institutions. This is an important insight, but for Western society this is an insight as old as Adam Smith when he pointed out the importance of this aspect of western societies after the feudal period in his "Wealth of Nations." For Smith it was the failure to create inclusive societies that led to the gradual unravelling of societies in the river valleys of the Yangste and the Ganges, in China and India, of increasing poverty and the gradual disappearance of what constituted the middle class in India and China. Chapter 8 titled "Of Wages and Labor" in the "Wealth of Nations" makes specific reference to this.

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Fiat's Marchionne's decision to focus on the Fiat 500 and the Panda city car in the price sensitive European market. Fiat has no success in selling its Bravo larger car. In 2011 sales of the Bravo model were only 32,036 compared to VW Golf model sales of 522,370 in Europe, according to IHS Global Insight. Sales of the Fiat 500 were 119,836 units vs. sales of 83,150 for the BMW Mini in the first half of 2012. Fiat has suffered more than other automakers in the European market with sales decline of 16.7% compared to 7.2% decline for the overall market, for Jan-Sept 2012. Fiat's new plans are for five new Fiat models and three new Fiat light trucks in Europe between 2013-2016. Fiat launched the 500L minivan in Europe in Sept 2012. Fiat's European factories are running at 45% of capacity on average, and the European operations are likely to burn through 700 million euros in 2013, similiar to 2012, unlikely to breakeven before 2015 or 2016. This makes getting the product decisions right critical for Fiat. Fiat's chief in Europe, Gianluca Italia talks of the functional and emotional soul of Fiat cars for Europe in a emphasis on making Fiat's models in the price sensitive segments more distinctive and commanding a premium in the European market. Fiat's 500 has about a 25% premium over a similiar Ford Ka in its segment. The new Fiat 500 models will be exported to Asia and Latin America in an effort to increase capacity utlilization in its Italian factories....

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Van Dam says its not that great being a worker in the U.S. because it is hard for the unemployed resulting from competing with workers in other countries with lower wages, and for those who are unemployed harder because worker collective bargaining is weakened over 3 decades. He cites a 296 page OECD report showing very little government support for unemployed and at risk American workers. It says this has contributed to higher income inequality and larger share of lower income people than almost any other advanced a nation. Only Spain and Greece are shown as having more households earning less than half the median income- showing large numbers of people are poor or close to being poor. In the U.S. an average of 1 in 5 lose their jobs each year, and 23% of workers 15 to 64 are in their job less than a year in 2016. The job churn hurts workers because of firing and layoffs being frequent, more than is healthy for a economy. The U.S. and Mexico are the only two countries not requiring advance notice before firings. And fewer than half of workers find a job within a year in the U.S. Two in three families with a displaced worker fall in poverty for some time. Unemployed workers with typically 26 weeks support get less support than any other country in the study. Only 12% of workers in U.S. are covered by collective bargaining. ...

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Nicholas Kristof says the strategy adopted during the Clinton administration of negotiations with the North and a partial lifting of sanctions worked better than the situation today. One criticism leveled at that agreement was that North Korea cheated and developed uranium weapon technology on the side. Yet says Kristof the situation is worse today. Under the "Agreed Framework" of the Clinton administration North Korea's Kim regime did not add to its nuclear weapons. Kristof says that policy of putting pressure on China has not worked. It would help if China did not transfer any technology to North Korea. Yet the basic policy of China remains in that it does not want renunification on the Korean peninsula that would put bring a U.S. ally on its southern border. The Bush administration and the Obama administration's policies did not lead to diplomatic progress and the world is a more dangerous place with North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile capability in 2017. Kristof says it is time to give diplomacy a chance to work. See Bosworth, for how a veteran U.S. diplomat has built channels to North Korea through many years of diplomatic effort.   ...

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Bruni of the NYT interviews the new Mayor of Rome, a transplant surgeon who lived most of his life in Pennsylvania. The effort by expatriates like the new mayor Ignazio Marino to give Italy a new start following the Berlusconi era and the stagnation in Italy's political and economic system. Marino won with 64% of the vote. Many of the people Bruni talked to in Italy are deeply conscious of the difficulties facing Italy as it tries to put itself on a new path, making a transfer to a younger generation, ending the Berlusconi era, and puting aside the sclerotic ways of the past.