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US economic growth was 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Even though the Fed increased rates at 10 consecutive meetings by 5% since March 2022 to tackle inflation the US economy appears strong. Large investments in the trillions of dollars in US manufacturing and infrastructure, tackling climate change is what is different this time compared to the past 2 decades when bad decisions were made with twin wars in the Arab and Muslim world, and the supply chain was transferred to China, investments were neglected in infrastructure, education and health in public goods, and capital markets allocated money with decreasing advantage to the economy. President Biden was in a unique position after the pandemic to take stock of all these mistakes and move the nation forward in positive directions in a decisive way in scale as well as in spirit and determination. That he has done so is more proof of the resilience of America.

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China reduces US share of exports to 15% from 18% -yet with Vietnam made Chinese goods added in it is 21%. 15.8 million job loss for China from US fentanyl tariffs 2025 from one estimate. Chinese businesses are already feeling this, says WSJ. Exports represent 13% of China's GDP and China had redoubled its export effort after the property bubble burst. There are 2 drags on growth property crash and exports tariffs. China has less room for stimulus in 2025 and the government is focusing on bottom line thinking to prepare for hard times. Already companies are cutting shifts and laying off 10-30% of workers in garment, toys and other basic industries. President Xi is preparing for a long struggle reminiscent of how Mao led China to fight the US forces under Gen. McArthur in the 1950's Korean War, says the WSJ. In the past the state subsidy system worked to take huge share of new industries such as semiconductors, smartphones, solar, electric cars. This will be harder now with less money available to invest and drive out competition, and with the US and EU making their own products boosting their industrial and manufacturing base. ...

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Compare AI models for versions v2 v3 by DeepSeek that cost $5.6 million with Anthropic AI model that cost $100 million+, and one gets the order of magnitude in cost for the new DeepSeek China model vs its US counterparts.  The hundreds of billions of dollars that OpenAI and big spenders such as Google, Meta, and Microsoft would have to drain capital markets would be a disaster for workers and families in the US and the standard of living, the infrastructure improvements that don't get done, and the investments in transportation and other vital needs such as schools, education and healthcare that directly impact the cost of living and the standard of quality of life in America and other countries. This is where competing models from China, from India, and from European countries can get us back to where we want to be to continue improving the cost of living and standard of living, quality of life in America for workers and families. This is the choice workers and families made in 2020 and in 2025, rejecting the wasted resources in wars that serve no purpose, and rebuilding the Nation's infrastructure, its water, schools, transportation, healthcare, childcare.  ...

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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

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China's loans and projects in Latin America and the unwinding of projects in 2026. China had shifted policy to collecting back $10 billion of loans to Venezuela in meetings of its envoy with Maduro the day the US acted to remove Maduro, says this report in WSJ. China is shifting to reduce losses in the region from loans. Over last 2 decades China has loaned Venezuela $100 billion in exchange for oil shipments. As its oil industry production declined without US assistance Venezuela went deeper in debt. This is another aspect of the problems that this type of model of development brings to finance building of rail and transport, seen across the world from Venezuela down to small countries like Sri Lanka and Zambia. For China this could amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in loans that lack transparency and are opaque to Africa and Latin America, when its construction industry debt and local government debt has led to problems. Other solutions and alternatives are needed.   ...

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The question whether the source of the coronavirus that led to deaths of more than 1 million Americans is a lab leak at a Wuhan lab in China is still being checked. The Energy Department says that with  "low confidence" it emerged from a lab leak at Wuhan, China. Earlier in 2021 the FBI stated that it was the result of a lab leak not a natural transmission. The Energy Department runs many labs doing research in the field. Petroleum exports supported the allied war effort in two world wars says this report in the WSJ. Europe is shunning Russian oil after its invasion of Ukraine.

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Germany Economy Minister Peter Altmaier says Germany expects a shallower recession. GDP in 2020  is expected to be down by 5.8% much lower than the 10-15% in other countries. Exports in June were up by 15% to China and down by 20% to the U.S. Economies of Spain and the UK are expected to see twice the decline in GDP in 2020. Italy and Germany are seeing a increase in manufacturing output, Spain and France a decline. 

Still Germany remains exposed to other trading partners than China, such as the U.S. and Britain, total exports are expected to be down 12% in 2020. About 11% of workers are using short term work subsidies to stay at home. Cases of the virus are surging in France and Spain. In Germany there is a surge but it is slowing since last week. Mr. Altmaier thinks Germany can avoid a second lockdown.

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping .at APEC Summit in Gyeongju and meeting DJT in Busan, South Korea, October 30 2025. At the Summit and in meeting with DJT temporary trade arrangements with US and concerns expressed by Japan's PM Sanae Takaichi. The US, China and Japan are in a delicate diplomatic effort to continue working with each other till issues are resolved.

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EV sales worldwide in March 2024 went up by 30%. New battery technologies are making EV cost competitive with combustion engine cars. This transition is nearer than we thought. Kurt Kelty of GM who worked on Tesla battery technology for 11 years says “When we reach cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles, I think that’s one big milestone. When you get there, then you’re really going to see the transition happen very quickly—and we’re not that far away from it.” The EV industry continues to make progress even as the industry has slowed with the new government not behind it with incentives. GM is setting its sight on 2028 and is investing in bringing costs down with new battery technology. It is new battery technology that enabled BYD in China to increase production and sales. In 2024 GM hired a Tesla engineer Kurt Kelty with 11 years experience to lead the effort to reduce cost and increase the power and duration of batteries. Kelty really believes in the EV revolution.“I’m a firm believer. Switching to an electric powertrain means better performance, less maintenance, more space inside the vehicle, a lower center of gravity and a higher crash rating. Evolution away from fossil fuels is unstoppable.”   ...

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Share of US Counties where 95% of Kindergarteners are vaccinated against Measles drops to 28% from 50% in Washington Post Investigation of 44 states December 2025. 95% vaccination rate is what experts say is needed for "herd immunity" or overall protection in a class. Washington Post examination of data shows marked deterioration from 2018-2019 school year to 2024-2025 school year data and public records. That is 5.3 million children are exposed from lack of herd immunity from measles now compared to 3.5 million children earlier increase of 1.8 million children. This Wash. Post investigation shows 19,000 schools are exposed and one can go to this article to find on a map how your school district and country are doing in the 44 states. A big problem is emerging from public skepticism and politics in vaccination. For generations schools required vaccination proof- by 1980 all 50 states had laws covering students first entering school. And caught in vaccine politics legislatures are creating religious and other exemptions that have weakened laws. Wash. Post says it's examination shows not a single County in Idaho, Louisiana, Oregon Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin meet the 50% vaccinated requirement for measles required for herd immunity. This could mean more of these diseases will be brought back home including whooping cough to affect elderly and infants. Democratic districts such as in St Louis and Chicago also see drop in measles vaccination rates. In the sense that newly decolonized countries since 1950 such as China and India have emerged with good health systems and mandated vaccination , other public health action, there is a great need for the US to focus on bringing back the public awareness that existed after the 1940's in the US that resulted in significant advances in public health in the US in the FDR, Eisenhower, Kennedy, LBJ and Reagan administrations. It shows there is no victory in public health. A lot of work needs to be done, as much of the gains can get undone by events and public awareness is necessary. As pharmaceuticals, chemicals and plastics and bad nutritional habits took over American lives there is an effort under Kennedy at HHS to tackle that health crisis, but it brings with it challenges that date from the pandemic and different responses in different parts of the US to mandatory vaccination which also have to be met through education not social media. ...

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Compared to 1971 Bangladesh has come a long, long way, on its 50th anniversary. From 80% of the population struggling with extreme poverty in 1971, Bangladesh now produces enough food for its 167 million population. The economy is only 13% agriculture with most of GDP coming from industrial production and services. Girls education is remarkable. 98% of children have attended primary school and there are more girls in secondary schools than boys. Norwegians and other European observers who visited Bangladesh in 1970's compare the situation with today and are astonished says this report in DW.com. By 2030 the GDP of $409 billion is expected to double, bringing the country close to 1 trillion dollar economy. The garment industry is the second largest after China, with $35 billion a year in exports. It has changed life of women in Bangladesh, employing 4 million people. Remittances from overseas bring in $24.7 billion for 2021. Overall target for exports is $51 billion for 2022. Problems include the rural urban divide with development concentrated in Dhaka and Chittagong, and increased urban poverty. And despite rise in number of children and girls in school the quality of education for a skilled workforce remains poor, says this report in DW.com ...

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Yvette Cooper, UK Home Secretary, continues to pursue a policy of keeping open asylum hotels even as the UK public opinion on asylum seekers shifts, with large parts of the population not supporting it. Immigration is the top issue in Britain and keeping asylum seekers in hotels at government expense is highly unpopular. Giving Reform UK support that it did not have in 2024. A WSJ report shows the problems UK immigration policy is running into in 2025 under Labour.  Editorial opinion in The Times of London says Farage's ideas on stopping migrants should be heard, as both Conservatives and Labour have not got it right, with surging numbers of migrants as long as policies on benefits favor migrant flow. It is plain common sense. The irony is that for most of the British Empire since 1600 during colonization there were no such policies favoring immigrants much less illegal migrants, colonial peoples had no such rights in British colonies in China or India much less in Britain that are now being offered to migrants coming illegally under the European Convention of Human Rights. Asian people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps- Japan, Taiwan, China, and India, and never depended on such Conventions. Some ideas in The Times of London say the UK military should be given the task of protecting the waters around Britain and some troops stationed in France to prevent illegal boat crossings where they start, considering that such action was taken during the recent Olympics in France. ...

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A directive from the Central Committee of the CCP, China's Communist Party is shown in this report in the WSJ that requires strengthening the work in corporate governance of the United Front Work Departments. This applies to foreign companies according to this directive in September 2020. This report says the European Chamber of Commerce in China has said that "this would have a considerable impact on business sentiment, and could lead foreign companies to reconsider future and even current investments in China."

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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An important investigation by the Wall Street Journal looks at the 60 day sprint to find the origins of the Covid virus that killed about 6 million people worldwide, with excess deaths three times that. Did labs in the US and in China and scientists experiments cause this or did it happen naturally in the wilderness or in wild animal markets in China. Were other points of view excluded, asks the WSJ by NIC in it's 90 day sprint meeting with president Biden on August 24, 2021. WSJ Investigation says the FBI WMD scientist Banaan and scientists at the Defense Intelligence Council Hardham, Cutlip and Chretien were kept away from the president at a crucial final meeting of National Intelligence Council with Biden on the 90 day sprint to discover where this virus came from. Comparable is the  25 million people who died in the Black Death plague in Europe in 1348- Europe's population did not return to its pre-1348 level till the 16th century, says Britannica.  A scientist working at the FBI offices in Virginia Banaan was brought to main FBI offices for WMD to look into the origins of the virus in Feb. 2020. He and the FBI expected to be called in to see president Biden at a special meeting with Avril Haines, James Murphy of NIC. The FBI and Defense Intelligence Council scientists were not called in to see the president. Scientists on the DIC Council section on the Virus were not given a chance to share views or join the meeting by the Director DIC Scott Berrier who had his own theory on the virus, says WSJ. These scientists had done genomics research that showed a spike protein part of the virus that enable it to enter human cells was constructed in a lab, says WSJ. The WSJ investigation says the investigation sought by president Biden in a 90 day sprint was done with the National Intelligence Agency officials under Avril Haines, a State department official who joined the agency after the 90 day sprint, and James Murphy of the NIC who headed it's WMD section. WSJ report says the heads of Defense Intelligence Agency and NIC believed in what is called the zoonotics theory that the virus was of natural origins and simply transferred from animals to humans. A Lancet article in Feb 2020 by a group of scientists including Daczak of EcoHealth Alliance that supported coronavirus research at Wuhan had supported this theory in the interest of global cooperation to fight the virus but called any alternative explanations conspiracy theory, says WSJ, politicising something that should never be politicized.     ...

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China's population decline and fewer working age people is likely to reduce the high capital accumulation that sustained rapid growth in the past. China's dependency ratio- population of children and elderly relative to the 15 to 64 year old age group went up to 46% in 2021 from 34% in 2010, says WSJ. This means less savings accumulation, and less of the enormous pool of cheap capital of the last 2 decades that led to fast growth. That period is ending. This makes the subsidy based approach to push key industries such as chips and solar panels in the past much more difficult in the future, says Nathaniel Taplin in the WSJ. 

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In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China. US cannot have it both ways. It cannot compete with China in chips and allow temporary market forces do the job of decimating its chip industry.    Market forces are rags to riches and mostly short term ignoring long term. Nvidia now valued at $1 trillion under market forces would not exist today. WSJ showed recently that only with the help of a loan from a Japanese Sega videogame executive Iramijiri to Nvidia founder Jensen Huang was Nvidia able to survive market forces in 1998. Qualcomm a maker of phone chips has made a takeover offer of Intel in 2024. Intel shares dropped 60% this year and is valued on share basis at $90 billion- yet was recently at $290 billion closer to its true value as America's chip pioneer and leader. Qualcomm is at $185 billion. Yet share values can be rags to riches as Nvidia story of going up to $1 trillion in 2021 and $3 trillion in 2024 shows. Such a deal draws anti trust concerns with too much control under one company. A deal for takeover of British owned ARM by Nvidia was stopped by regulatory authorites in UK and the EU in 2022. The US government is giving $8.5 billion to Intel to build up its chip making technology in competition with China. The Gelsinger plan is for manufacturing to be boosted up, so is the effort of the Biden administration. It may take time yet it is the right approach for the US. Pat Gelsinger is leading this effort at Intel. In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China.    ...

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Let sleeping tariffs lie is the approach of S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, India, European Union, Germany, UK-  expect all trade agreements with the US to remain in place after Supreme Court decision as no country wants to go through the intensely difficult process of renegotiating on tariffs. It is also the case that DJT can replace these same tariffs using other tools and different legislation passed by Congress to stop unfair trading practices by other nations. The president is also appealing to the public, some of the tariffs are about fentanyl flows into the US, the unfair trade practices and subsidies were a problem for the Biden administration and rebuilding manufacturing was the goal of both DJT and Biden, and will be for future administrations.  When the media NYT, Washington Post respond they are following the editorial line taken that opposes the DJT administration on all issues, when WSJ respond it takes the textbook approach of economists and finance people that free markets are best without considering the real life issues. This is why the president said at his press conference after the Supreme Court decision that 22 Nobel Prize economists had said the economy could not be turned around for growth and low inflation in 1 year, and were proved wrong after the experience of 2025 with low inflation at 2.8%, low unemployment 4.3%, and growth of 2.2% in real GDP (with strong growth in quarters 2&3 of 3.8% and 4.4%). Expect all tariffs to be in place under other legislation to be in place in coming months. ...

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West Bengal elections in April-May 2026- the elections come after Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, nearby countries, all changed governments following protests about corrupt governance, mismanangement of the economy. Inside India there is a profound change that is not even covered in the  established media such as the BBC and DW.com. The states of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar, in the northeastern part of India had landslides in voting for the ruling BJP party and NDA alliance for Clean government and Modernization of the economy. A similar vote took place also with a landslide for Clean Governance and Modernization in the state of Maharashtra in the western part of India with the commercial hub of Mumbai (Bombay). In the southern part of India in Kerala, the capital city local government in Thiruvananthapuram has also shifted to this Clean Governance and Modernization under the BJP government that governs at the federal level in New Delhi. India is like China and Japan before it, going through massive change to modernize the country with new infrastructure building and rapid development including investments in hospitals, universities and airports, trade logistics, factories for industrial production. The magnitude of the change is reflected inthe population of most of these states being close to 100 million in each state West Bengal(105 million), Maharashtra(130 million), Bihar (133 million), almost the whole population of the US in just 3 of the many states- witnessing huge changes that could mean 20-25% growth rate a year n the next couple of years to 2030 doubling their GDP. ...

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GST is to India what land sales were for China in its phase of rapid development and accelerated growth. It consolidated capital that could be then invested at the national and state levels on infrastructure, logistics for exports growth, creating a virtuous cycle of capital growth that could finance ever widening scale of development projects from metros, subways, rail, roads, bridges, airports, ports, logistics, tech related improvements. This was done in 2017 through a midnight session of parliament that passed the legislation needed. Years of endless discussion were turned into one session of implementing a single major tax system for India, transparent, digitized with new IT  Infosys playing a key role, and providing the pool of capital that has financed 5 years of development to take India past Britain as the fifth largest economy. Its pace of growth over 11% and accelerating with Maharashtra's GST growing at 24% in 2022-2023 over the prior year suggest that this will play a critical role in giving India a large pool of capital for growth. To be supplemented with foreign investment to make New India as a modernized nation. With an economy that will be exceeded only by the US and should catch up to China over the next 10 years. ...

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Amazon makes an offer to buy the whole of TikTok on April 1, 2025 before a April 1, 2025 deadline. A law passed in Congress in 2024 was upheld by the US Supreme Court requiring the sale of China based TikTok to American buyers for national security reasons or be closed to US users altogether. Amazon has connections to TikTok where TikTok users refer other users to products which can be bought on Amazon with revenue being passed on to influencers who get a cut on the transactions.

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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GM executives say China's auto market could reach 17 million in 2010 and 19 million in 2011. This is up from the 13.7 millon vehicles sold in China in 2009. More Chinese are crossing the threshhold of making $3000 to $4000 a year, as a result sales are booming in smaller, lesser-known cities in the inland western parts of China. Also helping is government vehicle purchase incentives as part of the stimulus policies.

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China had a trade deficit of $7.3 billion in February 2011. Experts say February is not a typical month because of the Chinese New Year.

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Corruption is not a necessary factor for a market economy, it is one of its ills that if left uncontrolled or unregulated risks the downfall of the entire market system with loss of confidence among the people in a market system. This BBC report shows the staggering sum of $44 billion taken out of Saigon Commercial Bank. The report says 93% of loans  given by the bank went to Truong My Lan who set up the bank by merging 3 smaller banks, and shows the brazenness and the scale of the corruption. My Lan started with a market stall during Vietnam's shift to a state driven market economy in 1986 like China, and gradually acquired hotels and other property. Nguyen Phu Trong is the General Secretary of the Communist Party since 2011 and president 2018-2021. The risks to the Communist Party of such corruption have become evident and Nguyen Phu Trong as leader of the Communist Party in Vietnam started his campaign against corruption in 2016 after pro business prime ministers of the past had led to Saigon's economy being left unregulated after 1986 in then Doi Moi reforms. It is Vietnam- and China's- lack of familiarity or experience with the market system that has led to tolerance of outright corruption in the past. In no way does a market system need any corruption of any sort to function that damages the credibility of the system with the people. As it is insidious and can affect the whole economy it requires vigilance, oversight and regulatory checks. ...