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Car sales in Germany are up 40% from ayear ago. This is not about to happen in the USA. The cash for clunkers program in Germany is broad and less complicated.In Germany eligible cars have to 9 years old and the subsidy covered the purchase of any new car, regardless of size and fuel efficiency. In the US the program just signed by President Obama covers a narrow profile of customers. In the US customers who benefitare economically challenged and in the midst of adeep recession. Cars can't be over 25 years old, and can't have a combined highway and city fuel economy rating of more than 18 miles per gallon as calculated by EPA. To get the full $4500 credit customers must buy either a new truck or sport utility rated 5mpg higher than the clunker or scrapped vehicle, or a passenger car rated at least 10 mpg higher.And the credit is given instead of the trade in value, so if the trade in value is higher it doesn't help. The German government is giving away upto $4500 but it started out with 1.5 billion euros to get 600,000 clunkers off the road, but because of the popularity of the program has expanded it to 5 billion euros for 2 million cars and extended it to end of 2009. The US program only has $1 billion for 250,000 cars or one eight of what the Germans are doing for amuch larger car market. Because of the dire shape Detroit and much of the midwest is in, because of the slump in the auto industry, this may be a mistake and a missed opportunity to do what the Europeans are doing, and get an even bigger impact. The American car market and industry is taking a severe blow from the deep recession. Because of the depressed region the impact of a real clunkers for cash program that targets a broader profile, with bigger financing and designed to give a boost to the market, could make a real difference. At this point it is more of a program designed to help people turn in their gas guzzling trucks for passenger cars, and those driving a $200 car are not likely to be the kind of customer who goes out and buys a new car say dealers. See the link to Alan Blinder's stimulus proposal in July 29, 2008, that suggested a $20 billion program even before the current crisis. The present program has only $1 billion....

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Zero covid lockdowns have added to the sentiment seeing China as a less attractive location for foreign investment. American companies are seeing staff resign due the lockdowns and zero covid policy. About a fourth of companies in a US Chamber of Commerce survey see a 20% drop in sales in 2022. A similar situation is being seen for European companies in China. The other area of growth from property sector is not working anymore as there is a 59% drop in demand for new property units. Investors in the property sector fear  another situation like that of property developer Evergrande's collapse.  Similar to Japan by 2000 a lot of the government infrastructure for roads and rail and automobiles has already been built leaving less room for this sector to kick in. Investments are possible in AI, renewables, electric cars, and advanced technologies, with limited potential to tackle loss of jobs in other sectors such as construction and government financed infrastructure spending and in retail stores. Retail sales are hit by inflation and high gas prices. The result is that China's GDP may fall by 1% according to one estimate for this quarter from the previous year. For growth and foreign investment look to India where a surge in government financed infrastructure in construction of roads and rapid transit, fast rail, construction of housing, and rapid increase in use of mobile phones, automobiles, and appliances is taking place. A new logistics system is being built with a Master plan for the whole economy under Gati Shakti creating a whole new place for foreign investment in a country of 1.3 billion. With Indonesia and Bangladesh closely related to India this is a market of 1.8 billion people far surpassing China and built on values of democracy ingrained over 100 years since the experiments under the British of elected state assemblies. This happened under limited Hind Swaraj since 1930's when India was led by Mohandas Gandhi in these early experiments with democracy. Germany, France and the US have a lot in common with India and the ground is being prepared with improvements for extensive German, US foreign investment by the Modi administration.  ...

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Krugman says in NYT that inflation is receding and its causes lie mainly in pandemic related supply chain issues not fiscal efforts to fix dilapidated infrastructure, invest in fighting climate change, or help for needy workers and families.  He looks at Fed chair Jerome Powell’s discussion on inflation and this he says shows that fiscal policy or government spending to fight the pandemic and US needs for infrastructure and science/chips played at most a distinctly secondary role. What Krugman does not say is that this does not mean that inflation is not an issue for many families living from paycheck to paycheck. Harris clearly spelled out a Plan for housing costs and cost of food and this is the kind of effort needed to tackle this issue secondary or not in astatistical sense. Also not given recognition is that the government spending is changing the very nature of the US economy by creating more potential for it to grow till 2030 in a way that would not be possible if this investment by president Biden was not wisely made. One has only to look at Germany to see its crumbling rail system and failing infrastructure to see that what Biden did right and Merkel did wrong. ...

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Krugman cites Apple as the largest company in the U.S. in terms of its valuation but having only 43,000 employees in the U.S. He asks the question- why does Apple get most of its manufacturing done in China? Apple indirectly employs about 700,000 people at its suppliers, with most of them in China. Companies contribute to a country's economy by creating successful clusters of research, innovation and manufacturing. In Apple's case, to the great detriment of the U.S. economy, the manufacturing part is being done entirely overseas. If cost is the only factor for this, then the question remains how German manufacturing has managed to surivive and grow with wages that are higher than in the U.S.

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Germany is struggling to deal with the 2.4 million asylum seekers entering the country since 2015. It is getting overwhelmed by the scale of migrants even though immigrants are needed in parts of the economy. In Austria and Poland new restrictions are being placed to stop migrant flow. Denmark has a socialist government that is restricting migrants from entering the country. Britain under Starmer and Labour has made cutting migrant flow a major priority, the Tories failure to cut migrants flow led to its defeat in 2024.

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The Europeans led by France and Germany demand stricter regulation and a financial regulatory system that oversees the entire financial system, and oversees all the larger countries. The US in contrast wants to see a lighter regulatory system, and lighter regulation of parts of the financial system like hedge funds. For the USA where the crisis originated, the emphasis is on larger stimulus spending. For the Europeans which have a larger safety net that they would like to see considered as part of their stimulus- and their social arrangement such as reduced hours in Germany to avoid layoffs, and the presence of a large public sector in France that is about 52% of GDP- the situation as they see it does not require breaking the EU's committment to control large deficits. The cultural and historical roots are also different. Germany was hit by hyperinflation in the period between the two wars, and there is thought there that this helped the rise of demagogic leaders and the collapse of democracy there. At that time the issue was war reparations that Germany found difficult to absorb in an economy devastated by the first war, which strained German finances. France and Germany also have no foreclosure crisis, and car sales and consumer spending are not in the deep decline that is seen in the USA. In fact car sales have increased in the two countries with the refunds for scrapping old vehicles, with no such plan in place in the USA. Making there is a credible position on the European side. Germany does see itself hit by the collapse in international trade. Germany and France face the prospect of helping their banking systems deal with the large bad loan situation facing them in Eastern Europe. At the same time Germany and France want to save some firepower for coming to the aid of key parts of the European community like Spain, Greece, and Ireland, which are facing a worsening crisis. In short both sides have credible positions, and some form of accomodation as events unfold may be a better desired outcome than some unified outcome. And little has been said of the position of the other countries in the G20, the emerging countries like Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, Argentina and others, and the position of the World Bank speaking for the poorest countries. These countries may favor stronger stimulus, and would favor the stricter regulation and supervision of global financial systems favored by the Europeans. This is because they may rightly feel that the messups in the global financial system have stolen their chance, at just the point where they were turning the corner in their efforts at bringing better standards of living to their peoples....

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Nobel laureate Michael Spence says the structural problems in the U.S. economy will require structural solutions where government, business and labor come up with collective efforts to restore economic growth. This might take some time says Spence. Short term fiscal spending alone is not the answer for jobs growth. And it will take a joint concerted effort of government, business and labor. Part of the effort might include a period in which there is lower income growth to regain competitiveness. This would be similiar to what Germany accomplished in the last decade in which it faced high unemployment. The German government, labor unions and business forged a consensus which included wage restraint, changes in the labor market. This would have to be combined with government-business partnership to make investments in advanced manufacturing technology and other innovations to improve competitive position. Educational standards and productive skill development issues would have to be addressed to create new advantage for the U.S., just as emerging market economies are making new strides of their own....

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China is slowing infrastructure projects after loaning $30 billion to Venezuela. As Venezuela's economy declined under Maduro Venezuela is paying this off with oil exports in what is called a creditor trap. Both Russia and China are intent on trade with the US, Russia to open up business and trade and China to preserve it's trading and business relationship for its exports at a difficult time for it's economy. This tacitly preserves the idea of US direction in a beneficial way for the western hemisphere that was part of the message in 1823 by president Monroe to Congress. In the Mexican War, through Manifest Destiny during the administration of James Polk in 1843 this was still the accepted idea when Ulysses Grant a future president and civil war general on the side of Lincoln fought in that war. This brought slavery free, Spanish feudalism free, democratic processes and modernized economies to California, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado, much of the West and the Pacific shoreline. Russia hopes to get the US to accept it's aspirations to be a modern Northern power in Europe. The US DJT Republican administration has shown it's respect for Russia in its zone of influence, with it's main objection to Russia in Ukraine being the massive invasion of a neighboring country. When compared to Mexico it was the US replacing the Spanish who had invaded the Aztec tribes in Mexico setting up feudal regimes, not the US invading a neighboring country. The European Union and Germany now bear the burden of defending Western Europe as a European power. The situation is similar in Asia where China has it's area of influence and India, Japan, Australia as Asian powers sharing zones of influence in Asia with China, so that the US can maintain good relations with China including fair trade that brings back it's manufacturing. The US would continue to support Taiwan as an independent country. This balance can ensure peace in the Americas, Europe and Asia as nations modernize and choose better governance under governments that relate to their history and geography, as opposed to Communist and anti-communist or democratic or anti-democratic, when they meet the aspirations of their people.   ...

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Krugman questions whether the assumptions behind the austerity policies are true- that they would inspire confidence in economic recovery, or that in the absence of austerity policies borrowing costs would go through the roof. The recent events in Holland with the collapse of the government in the Netherlands- when a party leader supporting the government said he did not want to hurt pensioners in the Netherlands just to satisfy German opinion- and the mood in France with economic anxiety vote going to Marie Le Pen and Francois Hollande in the first round of presidential elections, shows that very little confidence has been created. High unemployment and economic anxiety are leading to a reappraisal of austerity cuts that depress the economy and reduce tax revenues, but Krugman says no changes are taking place to correct these policies. This is true for Spain with its high unemployment, and Britain which now has two quarters of negative growth.

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A fact check on Alice Weidel Musk interview on X. The current polls show the leading candidate for chancellor is Habeck of the Greens at 28%. Habeck is known for the work he did to get Germany through a difficult period of cutoff of energy supplies from Russia. He was Deputy Chancellor and Economy Minister in the Scholz government. Scholz is at 20% so is Weidel of AfD. Others are Merz of the Christian Democrats at 25%. Sarah Wagenknecht leads a Socialist party BSW that opposes migrants given asylum similar to the Socialist party in Denmark under PM Mette Frederiksen with 21%. The AfD has 20% support, Christian Democrats have 30%. Social Democrats 20% and Greens about 20%. 7 million immigrants entered Germany since the Merkel years in 2015. The situation in 2015 when Merkel allowed migrants to enter Germany from Austria and Hungary is remembered as a controversial decision. Merkel reversed this decision during the last years of her government. Of the 7 million only 3 million are asylum seekers applications of which some were rejected. The rest were legally allowed into the country. This included Ukrainian refugees from the war with Russia.   ...

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The day following Theresa May's visit to Berlin and Brussels angela Merkel told a special parliamentary session in the Bundestag: "We have no attention of changing the Brexit deal."  Merkel also replied to questions from parliamentarians saying: "I can only tell the citizens of Germany that we are working hard for an orderly Brexit and at the same time we are preparing for the eventuality that things are not orderly." The EU position is to let the UK crash out of the European Union on March 29, 2019. Reports in The Times of London say this break in trade with the EU would badly hurt Britain's economy. No deal Brexit is seen by most Britons as bad for the country, and this prospect increases by the day as Theresa May now faces a no confidence motion from her own Conservative party. The EU says Merkel will work out contentious isues related to Ireland after Britain's exit. Merkel seemed to very spirited in the parliament telling AfD members she could not respond to their mixture of value judgements and facts, that "such polemics don't help,"and calling the left parties in Germany's support of the yellow vests protest in Paris as "scandalous."  If anything Merkel seemed energized now that she has resigned from her party leadership position. ...

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Corruption in Greece, just as the Greek economy burdened with some of the largest debt in the European Union. The threatens to weaken the EU with the prospect of Germany and other countries having to help Greece avoid adefault on its debt. This would only draw markets attention to other economies like ireland, Britain and Italy which are also burdened with large debt.

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During the Greek debt crisis in 2011 the ECB bought Greek bonds at a discount to face value to support the price of Greek bonds. It did so under the agreement that the bonds would be worth the full amount. Now as part of the negotiations between Greece and private bondholders (mostly French and German banks) about how much losses private bondholders will take- to make Greek debt serviceable as its economy shrinks and tax revenues decline- the ECB says it will take $11 billion in losses on these bonds as its contribution. The ECB will do this on the condition that Greece comes up with an agreement with private bondholders that makes debt serviceable. This could mean increasing private bondholder losses to 70%. from 50%. The central banks of EU countries hold $12 billion of Greek bonds. The ECB says this will not apply to these bonds. Negotiations are also underway between the EU and Greece for a 20% reduction in Greece's minimum wage and an additional 3 billion euros in government spending cuts, and pension cuts for retirees. The EU is asking for a written committment from the Greek government and from Antonio Samaras of the New Democracy party to the austerity program, as the measures are highly unpopular in Greece and are leading to continued street protests in Athens. ...

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Following the defeat of chancellor Merkel's CDU party in the 2016 Berlin state election, getting just 17.6% of the vote, chancellor Merkel looked reflective and a bit emotional about the result. She urged Germans to understand that this decision on refugees will benefit Germany in the long run. She said she would work to regain the people's trust. Looking back she said-"If I could, I would turn back time by many, many years to better prepare myself and the whole German government for the situation that reached us unprepared in late summer 2015." She says the decision was "absolutely right" to admit the refugees from war torn Syria, but accepted that "it led to a time when we did not have enough control over the situation." Both the CDU and the SPD, the main parties, lost about 6-7 percentage points each in votes cast. Gainers were the Free Democratic Party with 6.7% of the vote, who gained votes from the CDU. For the SPD votes were lost to the Greens and the left party Die Linke each party winning over 15% of votes.  Both the CDU and the SPD had candidates who did not attract voter interest. A popular former Mayor of Berlin from the SPD did not run in this election. The anti-immigrant AfD party gained  about 14% of votes.  ...

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How the Cowley plant stands as a fine example of how foreign investment has helped regenerate the area around Oxford university. BMW has invested more than $560 million in the plant since 2000 and in April 2007 the plant produced its millionth Mini a car based on a contemporary design of the old Morris Mini car. BMW has with its investments contributed about 55,000 jobs and $5 billion to the British economy in 2004 according to Oxford Economic Forecasting. UK received foreign investment that was 37% of of its gross domestic product in 2005, higher than France 28%, germany 18%, and the USA 13%, according to figures from the United Nation Conference for trade and Development. It has helped the British economy as the unemployment rate is lower than most of the EU countries. In the financial services industry a lot of foreign investors from USA, Germany and Switzerland have bought British firms and the financial services industry has thrived with all the international presence and Britian has increased its position as a centre of global financial services....

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The terms of the debt restructuring deal with the bond swap in Greece become clear on March 9, 2012. In the deal with private bondholders -using collective action clauses to force remaining bondholders into the deal- about 96% of the 206 billion euros of Greece's bonds will be exchanged. Private bondholders held out throughout most of 2011, delaying the inevitable as Greece's economic situation became increasingly hopeless. This created a logjam with the German government, which insisted on serious private sector participation and bondholder haircut as the cost of poor lending decisions of the French, German and other European banks that made loans to Greece out of proportion of the ability of Greece to payback loans. Charles Dallara of the Institute of International Finance, negotiating for European banks, offered a 10% average loss on the bonds in July 2009. It was not until German Chancellor Merkel told Dallara at a late night meeting on October 27, 2011: "this is my last offer," for a 50% loss on the face value of the bonds, was agreement reached. The Greek debt swap that now takes place will give private bondholders a loss of 53.5% from the face value of 200 billion euros of bonds that they hold. The new Greek bonds issued in place of the old bonds include short-term bonds issued by the eurozone rescue fund at 15% of the face value of the old bonds, and a series of Greek bonds with maturity ranging from 11-30 years valued at 31.5% of the face value of old bonds. That even this 53.5% bondholder loss will not be adequate, as Greece's economy looks irretrievably damaged as it spirals downwards, is shown by the value of these bonds already trading in a hypothetical "gray market." The new 30 year bond is quoted at 17 cents and the 11 year bond at 22 cents. The questions remain about the stalling by the banks in taking the losses earlier- was this the wisest move considering the losses beyond Greece as the eurozone economy as a whole has suffered from the prolonged negotiations stretching through 2011, lurching from one crisis to the next? Even if the stalling was designed to give time for banks to repair their balance sheets, was this the best strategy, considering the damage inflicted on European economic growth. John Taylor of Stanford points out that the European banks delayed the unavoidable serious debt restructuring for too long, when insolvency was the real issue not illiquidity, and exaggerated the effect of contagion from the beginning- in John Taylor, WSJ, 2/22/2012, A Better Grecian Bailout. And John Cochrane of the University of Chicago, points out that French and German governments if they bailout French and German banks should do so openly and frankly rather than cover this up as bailouts of countries, because this would lead to serious questions about the poor lending decisions of the European banks and government supervision of the banks- in Cochrane, WSJ, 12/2/2010, 'Contagion' and other Euro Myths. As early as Feb. 2010, Cochrane was suggesting the forced exchange of new bonds with long debt maturities for exisiting bonds with short debt maturities, as short term debt was the major issue here. ...

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A news story about French president Francois Hollande saying he wanted to see tough negotiations sends the British pound plummeting on October 7, 2016. It fell to $1.18 before recovering to $1.24 to the dollar. Experts say algorithms overreacted to the news story about Hollande's remarks. Further declines are expected as Brexit negotiations happen in 2017 closer to elections in Germany and France, with issues such as movement within the EU likely to be obstacles. Other factors influencing the pound are the that the pound is no longer a safe haven following Brexit, and the uncertainties generated by the Brexit "yes" vote. This would mean higher prices in Britain's retail stores for imported products, costlier vacations overseas, and higher inflation. It could boost British exports with a devalued currency making them more competitive. 

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The U.S. makes its first interest rate cut since 2008. The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on July 30 2019. For seven years after the financial crisis of 2009 the U.S. central bank cut rates to generate business investment confidence and initially to prevent a deep crash in stock markets. In making this cut the U.S. is now a follower of the European central bank which is cutting rates to stimulate the economy. The U.S. does not want to see too much divergence with European interest rates which are showing negative yields and the U.S. at about 2.25% putting the U.S. with a disadvantage in trade from a stronger currency that results from higher rates. That crisis was a result of poor lending by banks in an irrational search for profits that never materialized. It ended up hurting the savings of ordinary Americans who earned close to zero on savings accounts. A similar pattern was seen in Britain and the European Union, resulting in a loss of confidence of working class voters in the established political parties and the emergence of Trump in the U.S., UKIP in Britain, AfD in Germany and the National Front in France.  ...

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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This video shows Dr. Birx explaining the three Phases for reopening the U.S. economy. Each state's governor would decide when a state thinks it is safe to move to the first phase. States which have not been affected much and fewer cases in the western part of the U.S. such as Idaho, North Dakota, Iowa could open earlier. Texas could start in May. California would have to do more testing before it starts Phase 1. New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Massachusetts, would come later because of the severity of the crisis. Each phase criteria are carefully set out and parameters set down for social distancing rules to be followed, number of people, locations, how offices open, how stores open, how hospitals open. Germany and the U.S. have set out detailed guidelines and phases. A state in the U.S. could even move back in phases if data shows it is doing badly. Hotspots would continue to be tracked and resources shifted from the federal government quickly to these new hotspots now that medical supplies, medical personnel and other shortages such as testing are being aggressively addressed. ...

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The problem of poor competitiveness in Greece which is stifling the economy. A recent analysis by research firm Variant Perception based in London, shows severe pricing distortions in the Greek economy. The cost of labor in Greece from 2005-2010 was, on average, 25% higher than in Germany. And small business is muffled by the bureaucracy and old rules and restrictions. Compared to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have lower labor costs. This increases the trade deficit for Greece. Greece has one of the highest number of lawyers per capita in the world, one lawyer for every 250 people compared to 272 in the US.

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Ian Talley provides this excellent account of how this drop in oil prices is likely to add to economic growth in major world economies, removing any ambiguity about the positive effect on the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to about $65 from $105 between June and December 2014. The IMF estimates growth in 2015 will increase from 3.1% to 3.5% largely because of the lowering in energy costs. JP Morgan Chase economists see an addition of 0.7% points in global growth in the first half of 2015. ECB president Draghi sees the lower oil prices as an unambiguous positive. Estimates from Rhodium Group show major oil importing countries seeing import bills cut by $500 billion if prices remain low for 6-8 months, with $90 billion going into the U.S. economy. IMF estimate is that only 20% of the drop in oil prices is from lower demand, about 80% from higher fuel efficiency, increased supply using new technologies, decisions by OPEC to lower oil price, increases in supply. Based on estimates by the Rhodium Group, IEA and the IMF, the extra money flowing into the economies of the U.S., Asia and Western Europe from reduced oil import bills, as measured in percentage of GDP is: the U.S. 0.5%, Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. Italy and France and other oil importing countries benefit. The impact comes at a time when Japan, China, India and eurozone economies badly needed a boost after significant slowdown in growth in 2014. It could not have come at a better time and because it is technologically driven as in the case of highly fuel efficient automobiles and new oil exploration technologies, a self sustaining process. The corresponding impact for oil exporters is: Russia -4.7%, Nigeria -5.4%, Venezuela -10.2%....