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The second proposal by the DJT administration is described by the WSJ as being one that may be worse than the first for Ukraine as it opens up repayment of the money US gave as aid to Ukraine to defend against Russian invasion. DJT administration maintains it is $350 billion not the $100 billion Ukraine and the EU say Ukraine received in US aid. In this report Ukrainians say the Ukraine parliament would never be able to pass such an agreement and it sets up more difficulties in US Ukraine peace negotiations if released. The US proposal would set up an entity called the US Ukraine Reconstruction Fund. This fund would have first right to all infrastructure and minerals projects in Ukraine. It's approval would be required for other investors to invest in Ukraine infrastructure and mineral projects. It is written as a commercial agreement, not as a nation to nation agreement. Scott Bessent who runs Treasury is a finance executive overseeing the negotiation and this proposal. He worked for George Soros Fund and provided advice for the bet on the British pound during a difficult time for the UK economy that led to a billion dollar gain for Soros Fund. DJT is a real estate developer. As a result their thinking is based on their experience in the US real estate and capital markets.     ...

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People in China with 800 yuan or $114 can now invest in low cost mutual funds. They can invest in 5700 domestic mutual funds offered by Vanguard's partner in China Ant Financial Services Group. Vanguard offers investment advice in assembling mutual funds. The investment advice will depend on algorithms not people to provide investment advice.  Ant owns 51% Vanguard 49%. Chinese investors are known for speculative approach to investing and making risky investments. By contrast Vanguard's approach in the U.S. is more careful and makes a serious effort to reduce risk with its index based mutual funds which it pioneered. China is making an effort to bring American companies into its financial  markets as part of the opening up sought by the U.S. Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley says his goal is "to fundamentally change for the better how individuals in China invest." Vanguard says it has taken the long view having worked for a long time on getting regulatory approval and its own approach for investing to introduce in China. It studied the market since 2018 talking to industry peers, regulators and clients. It says Chinese regulators appreciate Vanguard taking the long view. Today Vanguard's office in China has only 20 employees, and it has stayed away from setting up private investment funds for wealthy individuals and institutions which is permitted for western firms in China such as Fidelity International.  Vanguard's Mr.Bogle pioneered low cost index mutual funds that follow and index as opposed to having mutual fund managers determine investments. This takes the guesswork and individual bias out of the equation as experience has proven that over the long run this approach works best. Vanguard now has $6 trillion in funds under management, and is by far the largest mutual funds company in the world. It now has the potential to tackle a huge market of 900 million individuals in China. ...

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Daisy Maxey of the WSJ talks to 3 financial advisers during Dec. 2014 about how investors should approach stock market volatility, the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates, and tax issues in 2015. The advisers say investors should not let the volatility affect a steady long term investing strategy. Joel Isaacson says he prefers high-dividend paying stocks over the 10 year U.S.Treasury bonds because of the lack of much upside in bonds. He adds that taking extra risks on high yield bonds is not warranted. The advisers refer to opportunities in areas which are not doing well in 2014 such as in Europe. On tax issues having some money in Roth IRA's is suggested, to have money in tax deferred as well as tax free accounts. Annuities depend on individual situations.

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According to AJO, institutional money manager in Philadelphia, the average return since March 10, 2000, for the S&P 500 is about 5%, and the NASDAQ Composite less than 1% annually, including dividends. Zweig cites this to show that investors not make the mistake of overpaying for tech stocks or startup stocks, or buy into the hype for a second time since 2000. The NASDAQ Composite hit 5048 in April 2015. The last time it was at this level was on March 10, 2000. Cisco traded at 167 times earnings at the time. For the average long term S&P 500 index shows it traded at an average of 16 times earnings. This is a sober reminder for the average investor that gains depend on on what you pay for a stock.

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Readers Haven and Harrington comment on the op-ed "Don't Blame Jim Cramer", March 17, in the Washington Post. Jon Stewart took Jim Cramer and CNBC to task for helping inflate the financial bubble with the TV program. A lot of this went on on in all the news programs CNBC and on Bloomberg, as the business news media in their revenue model depend on viewers and advertising revenues, and are not rewarded for good reporting and analysis. Hype and other kinds of promotion, can win better ratings then patient, against the tide reporting and analysis. Reward systems determine the way, humans, media, and other things in our economics system respond. These are essentially unchanged and remain so one bubble after another, tech, housing, credit, on and on.

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Sales of new vehicles are in even steeper decline in Japan than in Germany. Germany saw a boost with reunification with East Germany. Eastern Europe is next door for sales and manufacturing. Sales declined 7.6% in 2007 over 2006 to reach 3.406 million vehicles, the lowest level since 1972. With 9 new models Toyota's sales declined by 6% in 2007. Something is happening in the developed country markets that shows the markets there are declining relative to the new markets in Asia and other emerging markets. How automakers fare in the future and which survive and grow will depend on how they prepare and execute strategies for these markets focussing on new design, efficient manufacturing and new technologies These markets will bring a different set of customers looking for improvements.

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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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Mike Pence, former Vice President, says he can't defend what is alleged in the indictment of Mr. Trump for keeping highly sensitive documents as the allegations are serious involving national security, nuclear program and vulnerabilities. Yet he would like to know from Attorney General Merrick Garland what role his judgement played in moving forward with an unprecedented indictment of a former president of the US.

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Municipal yields are back up. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says states in the USA will have to close budget gaps of $140 billion in fiscal year 2012, ending in June, down from $160 billion this year. But real shortfalls will increase because federal stimulus funds that helped state and local governments will fall from $59 billion this year to $6 billion next year. Local governments depend on states for one third of their revenue, according to a Congressional Budget Office report, which makes them vulnerable. Property taxes account for a quarter of local government revenue and this too will be declining with declining assessed values. The Federal Reserve Act limits open-market purchases of munis to ones with maturities of less than 6 months, which reduces the scope for help from the Fed.

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India's leading energy official, Anil Swarup, the Coal Secretary, says India has to depend on what is available, with slow progress on nuclear power there is not much else. As India increases its growth rate to 7-8% India will increasingly be dependent on coal. The Modi government plans to double coal production. About 300 million people in India have no access to electricity. The country faces energy shortages in other areas. Even with a push for renewable solar and wind energy, coal is expected to provide 60% of energy needs in India in 2030. One government model shows solar and wind increasing from 6% to 18% by 2030. India points to per capita emissions which are 1.7 for India, 6.2 for China, and 17.6 for the U.S., according to the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

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One U.S. military official describes Boko Haram insurgency as similiar to where Islamic State was 2 years ago. The U.S. military has stopped training Nigerian military units, because of corruption, human rights abuses by soldiers, and infiltration of the Nigerian military by Boko Haram. Another story in the NYT describes the tensions in Nigeria as a former military ruler runs for president on a platform of restoring law and order. Boroko Haram militants are active in the Muslim north and the Nigerian military riddlled with corruption and lack of proper equipment and training has failed to control the militants. Nigeria has a long history of corruption in government and the current government of Jonathan faces the same problems, with oil revenues not going into development of the country- most Nigerians cannot depend on the electrical grid, and infrastructure is in bad shape.

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The bleak situation for Americans facing retirement as most people age 65 are likely to outlive their savings. The median financial net worth of an American household is $10,890, according to work done by Edward Wolff, an economics professor at New York University. This estimate is based on 2010 Federal Reserve data updated for the movement in market indexes. Even the ten percent of Americans who have saved $1 million will have difficulty as a 2% withdrawal rate would provide only $20,000 to supplement Social Security income. Earlier generations of Americans could depend on income from bonds. In today's low interest rate environment, the benchmark 10 year Treasury note is at 2.2% in 2013, bonds will provide only a fraction of the income generated in earlier periods. Stock markets are volatile and pose additional risks for seniors in retirement.

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Workers who have not received wages in Russia number 300,000 people according to government data and back pay amounts to $145 million. Prime Minister Putin promised new measures including lower corporate taxes and higher unemployment payments. Government data show growth in industrial output slowed to 1.6% in October 2008.

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The Ruble and other currencies in Eastern Europe are especially vulnerable as countries dependent on commodities or with large deficits see their value fall significantly.

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Russia's central bank allows the ruble to decline by 1% against a basket of euros and dollars, closing at 31.60 on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. The ruble has fallen 4% since the government began what analysts believe is a gradual depreciation of as much as 20%.

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Many prior pieces focussed on extravagant gasoline consumption in Iran because of subsidized prices. A recent piece showed how Iranians protested against the rationing of gasoline. Iran needs more refineries as its refinery capacity is limited- no mention on how Iran is tackling refinery constraints. The subsidy is huge as it 34 cents vs $2 on world markets, it also costs Iran $5 billion which it can use to build more refineries. This piece shows Venezuela's willingness to supply Iran in the event Iran cannot depend on supply from India, Netherlands, France, UAE and other suppliers.

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Defense experts in Britain say the part of the Russian army that is modern is not large, and the part that is large is not modern. The Russian advance attack in Ukraine has floundered, says this report in the WSJ. About 25% of the Russian army is made up of conscripts. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on modernization of the Russian armed forces have been spread thinly, and dissipated also because of corruption and poor management.  The Russian encrypted communications did not work as expected leading to relying on open communications that could be intercepted or jammed. The Russian government and president Putin were still stuck on 2014 and did not realize the determined resistance and the desire for independence of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is a technologically advanced European country the size of Germany with a population of 40 million, and Russia has an economy the size of Italy, factors that also played a part. The corruption and poor economic conditions in the border Ukrainian republics setup by Russia led many Ukrainians in the eastern border region to question any advantages from Russian rule. The user of poorly motivated conscript soldiers led to many generals and other officers to have to be present on the front lines leading to Russian officer level casualties. The use of antitank weapons supplied quickly from the European Union and the US, and use of small mobile units of Ukrainian volunteer and army forces to tactically destroy the front and rear of miles long convoys of tanks and armored vehicles - leaving the rest of the convoys trapped in between. Logistics also failed to resupply deep inside Ukraine as Russian forces depend on rail based resupply which could not happen without control of cities on the rail lines. The volunteer forces in Ukraine after 8 years of war since 2014 and the immediate assistance with antitank and other military assistance from US, and EU, played a part in the western response to the Ukraine crisis and president Putin's actions.   ...

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COP26 stands for Conference of the Parties for Climate Change. The conference will be held in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November 2021 in the UK. It is important because for the first time the major countries are keen on pushing forward with climate change policies and targets. This includes India, China, US, European Union, and major Asian, Latin American, African nations. In India Mr. Modi has set a target of 450 GW for renewable energy. China is aggressively cutting back on its use of coal to the point of tolerating cutbacks in electricity for industry and cities. US, UK, Germany, Nordic countries are pushing forward with new targets for reducing coal consumption and increasing renewable energy production, advancing renewable energy technologies. The new Biden administration in the US and the Greens in Germany have replaced administrations that were not as committed to tackling climate change. With China and India also committed to tackling climate change with renewed vigor the stage is set for serious steps to be taken. To reach the target of limiting global heating by no more than 1.5 degrees centigrade countries all over the world have to cut emissions by 45%. In reality emissions will increase by 16% in 2021 because China and India still depend on coal and developed nations have not cut back enough. To cut use of coal and preserve forests, avoid the drastic changes in weather patterns with drought and floods in different parts of the same country seen in Germany, India, African countries and other Asian countries a lot needs to be done. Here Mr Kerry the US Representative for Climate Change, says -"There is a significant increase in ambition on cutting emissions than ever imagined possible. A much larger group of people are stepping up." It is not clear if Mr. Xi of China will attend the Glasgow meeting. He has talked to Mr. Biden at length on this issue recently. Mr. Modi of India will attend and will meet Denmark's prime minister Mitte and other leaders before the COP26 in Glasgow.  ...

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Moderate far right, right and socialist have less meaning in the context of the French government of prime minister Michael Barnier. The NFP as the largest single party sees the turning down of it's moderate candidate Lucie Castets by Macron as not representative of the vote. Michael Barnier's choice as prime minister from the Les Republicains party with 47 members in the new National Assembly, the smallest of the top four parties NFP, Renaissance, RN and LR, means he will have to depend on Marie Le Pen's RN party to remain prime minister. Together the Les Republicains of Sarkozy and the Ensemble of Macron  have 213 members in the National Assembly representing the status quo, 168 for Ensemble Macron and 45 Les Republicians the Gaullist party. These two parties are the largest bloc combined compared to 182 seats for the socialist NFP Front Populaire and the Le Pen party with 143 seats. The strange twist is that Macron started out in the Socialist Party and was part of the Socialist administration of Francois Hollande, who formed his own party Renaissance (now Ensemble) to bring younger faces and replace the old political parties. This led to the decline of the Gaullist Les Republicains party. In 2024 Macron is back to the old parties- becoming part of an alliance with the old Les Republicains Gaullists. Yet the financial crises of 2009, the pandemic, and the inflation crises in France have changed France from what it was in the Gaullist De Gaulle period in the 60's to 90's, with a struggling lower and middle class who have shifted their support to Le Pen and to the Socialist Front Populaire. Barnier is left with the challenging job of combining new immigration policies (Le Pen) with socialist policies to help the middle and working class. A new consensus that says stopping migrants is part of helping working class (in Denmark and other EU countries) is how Barnier has to approach this situation to bring together different parties. ...

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H-P CEO Leo Apotheker defends H-P's plan to spin off its PC unit. He says it wasn't possible for H-P to invest enough in the business to be competitive and make the necessary structural changes needed in other parts of H-P's business. The new product development cycles are much faster than what a congomerate like H-P could accomplish in areas such as the tablet PC, as consumers are looking for a stream of new product devices. H-P's PC unit generated $40.1 billion in revenues and $2 billion in operating profit in the recent fiscal year. Analysts say H-P has overpaid for Autonomy, leaving less money available for additional strategic moves. Apotheker defended that decision saying the Autonomy acquisition makes it possible for H-P to skip a generation of technology as it enables businesses to make sense of unstructured data.

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This WSJ editorial defends Gen. McMaster's record and policy planning in the Middle East. This editorial says some of the White House dysfunction is a result of Bannon.

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NYT reports show the Republican health care bill AHCA 33 votes short of passing the House and likely to fail. Conservative Republicans were looking to whittle down the safety net in the Affordable Care Act, and moderate Republicans could not stomach the whittled down bill removing guarantees of essential benefits for instance. The basic problem- no real consensus among Americans about providing health care to all Americans, and no real solutions possible as long as there is acceptance of disproportionately high levels of medical care costs for treating each disease in the U.S. compared to Europe and other countries.