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This article in the Economist magazine says Brazil's new president Michel Temer, once impeachment proceedings lead to the resignation of Dilma Rousseff, is only slightly less popular than her. Polls show 58% of Brazilians say Temer should be impeached close to the 61% for Rousseff, and his party is also affected by the Petrobras corruption scandal. Brazil's large trade unions supporting the Worker's Party of Rousseff see it as a "coup" or "golpe" and promise strikes, combined with large street protests, this comes as the country faces a second year of falling GDP at 3.8% according to the IMF. Brazil has a budget deficit of 10.8% and needs changes in public spending, including pension reforms, which are unlikely under Temer or his party the PMDB, or under the PMDB's Mr. Cunha. Some experts see the change in Brazil as part of a broader shift in Latin America, that happened in Argentina recently with the election of Mauricio Macri as president, towards governments that move to the centre in politics and reduce state intervention in the economy to stimulate growth. This is unlikely to happen in the short run, with society deeply divided and the area in front of the Brazilian Congress cordoned off to separate the opposing factions and rallies of political supporters....

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The probe into corruption at Petrobras, is known as "Operation Car Wash," because some of the payments were routed through a car wash company in Curitiba, Brazil, which caught the attention of a young federal prosecutor in that city. The investigation took a new turn with the arrest by Brazilian police of the heads of two large construction companies, Marcelo Odebrecht of Odebrecht SA, and the CEO of Andrade Gutierrez, on June 18, 2015. Investigators say construction executives in collusion with Petrobras officials inflated the price of contracts and made payments to politicians and political parties including the ruling Workers Party. The alleged amount is about $2 billion. The construction companies are active in shipbuilding, defense contracting, oil and exploration related work, and building the stadiums for the World Cup Soccer and the Olympics. This has damaged the credibility of the ruling Workers Party, former president Da Silva, and current president Dilma Rousseff, in power during the last decade. The companies and the Workers' Party denied any involvement. Federal prosecutor Carlos Fernando dos Santos Lima told a news conference in Curitiba- "We have no doubt that Odebrecht and Andrade Gutierrez headed the cartel scheme within Petrobras." Adding that the two companies "cannot pass themselves off as innocent given how much evidence we have."...

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A call to U.S. and European leaders to uphold civilized values after the repeated use of chemical weapons and poison gases in Syria by Bashir Assad. Roberts quotes the poet Wilfrid Owen who fought on the Western Front in World War I and witnessed the horror of gas attacks at the time. The poem is "Dulce et Decorum Est." It describes a chlorine gas attack at that time. The Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Aphyxiating, Poisonous and other Gases, banned their use in 1925. The hesitant response of president Obama to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by Assad compares very unfavorably with the Sarkozy-Cameron action in Libya and president Clinton's response in Kosovo after attacks on civilian populations. It also fails to uphold civilization values. This is true also of the government of Hollande in France, Merkel in Germany, which have failed to respond. The focus on domestic issues and the eurozone crisis does not make any less the responsibility of western leaders on this issue. Russia under Putin and China under Jinping have not grasped the importance of standing up for civilization and values to be credible in world affairs....

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Relations between Iran and Arab Sunni states Saudi Arabia and UAE are improving especially as Arabs distance themselves from the Bush Administration after faulty inelligence estimates about Iran were corrected by the CIA concluding that Iran wasnot pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The Arab Sunni states arenot altogether happy with the US policy in Iraq and Palestine. Note that that even before this there is a stron economic link between UAE and Iran. About 400,000 Iranian expatriates live in the Emirates and 9000 part Iranian owned firms are registered with the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry. One look at the map show why Dubai is closest to Iran just a short strip of water dividing the two countries. This bodes well for oil prices as any volatility in the region would only increase pressure on oil prices. Peace in the Gulf region would do a lot to decrease the volatility affecting oil prices. It would also give Iran confidence to address its own role as a supplier by modernizing its oil industry. See the link to Mexico where President Calderon wants to transform Pemex and Mexico's oil industry over 10 years after Petrobras was pushed into reform by President Cardozo in Brazil. Commerce and Industry...

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The Fed's efforts so far to revive lending have done little to create confidence even though the rate cuts have lowered the federal funds rate to 1.5%. Bernanke's efforts to randomly spread liquidity across the economy is not helping frozen credit markets and jumpstarting lending. Business Week's Coy and Reed call it "helicopter money" that is spread all over the landscape and remin readers that Bernanke was referred to "Helicopter Ben" after one of his speeches citing Milton Friedman in 2002. Friedman coined that metaphor. Paul Welfens, president of the European Institute of International Economic Relations in Wuppertal, Germany says "its very dangerous not to have a strategy, as the situation is worsening because no one is doing a program to restore confidence." Gordon Brown's plan in the UK to jumpstart lending by injecting capital into the banks for equity stakes is supported by Business Week's Coy and Reed. Coy and Reed suggest a targeted approach including not wasting money on weak banks that may be consolidated or allowed to disappear. They cite Robert Diamond, President of Barclays bank who says that "as the tide goes out the weak models and the weak managements are revealed, we are goiing to see significant consolidation in banking across Europe."...

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Roosevelt say experts was a great crisis manager but not great when it comes to policies to create jobs. His achievements were stabilizing the banking system with deposit insurance, government investment in banks, and restrictions on banking practices, creation of the SEC, and fireside chats that steadied the national mood. Unemployment when he took office in 1933 was 25% from 3% in 1929, and industrial production had dropped 40% since 1929. So FDR took office when a lot of the damage had already been done, compared to that Obama takes office earlier in this downturn. And Roosevelt did not fully grasp John Maynard Keynes's advice when he visited the White House in 1934. Keynes complained to Labor Secretary Ms. Perkins that he had thought the President was more literate economically speaking, while the President felt Keynes had a rigmarole of figures he did not understand. Roosevelt said of Keynes: "He must be a mathematician rather than a political economist." It took some time for government spending to take hold. Throughout the 1930's government spending remained around 20% as a share of the economy. Today its 35%. And the average unemployment stayed at stubborn 17% on average for the decade of the 1930's. It was not till the 1940's that things changed. Total government spending as a share of the economy reached 52% in 1942 with the onset of the war, and peaked at 70% in 1944 when the unemployment rate dropped to 1%. One lesson experts say is that its easier to stem unemployment and job losses by action earlier in the downward spiral through vigorous action by government. In retrospect because industrial production fell by 40% during the 1930's experts say Roosevelt was actually timid in his response. U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke is a student of this period and draws a similiar lesson from that period for vigorous action early in the crisis....

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U.S. president Trump's 2017 budget is an effort to reshape spending priorities by the Republican party. Apart from Medicare and Social Security all other entitlement programs from the days of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society are subject to cuts. Deep cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, including introducing work requirements. The philosophy behind it is that compassion will now be measured not by how large these programs are but by how much the government can get people "off these programs and back in charge of their lives,"  according to Budget Director Mulvaney.  The cuts are $616 billion to Medicaid and Children's Health programs, $193 billion in cuts to Food Stamps, $143 billion in student loans, $72 billion in disability programs. The overhaul of the Affordable Health Care Act is part of this change. The reallocation would put more money into infrastructure for $200 billion, and in tax cuts, $19 billion in a parental leave program and $29 billion for veterans programs, plus added spending on the military. William Hoagland of the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Republican who worked on budget issues says it will be politically difficult as the cuts to lower income groups come with tax cuts for small businesses and higher income individuals.  Beyond the policy priorities there is an area where both Republicans and Democrats are skeptical of the budget. This is how it impacts the U.S. debt. Under Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP which rose to about 75% after the Great Recession starting in 2008, is projected to grow to about 85%. In sharp contrast the Trump administration estimates of the Office of Management and Budget are for it to drop to 65% based on rosier estimates of 2% inflation, 3% growth for the decade ahead. Experts say this is unlikely once the Fed raises interest rates and the unemployment rate currently at 4.4% leads to rising inflation, undercutting growth which has remained below 2% for a long period. These concerns are also voiced by Hilsenrath in the WSJ based on the experience of other countries such a Britain that cut corporate taxes without seeing an uptick in economic growth. ...

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An account of the education, influence, political and economic positions of sons, and grandsons of the Communist leaders under Mao-tse-tung from the 1940's and 1950's. This story by Jeremy Page covers Bo Yibo, a veteran Communist leader under Mao, his son Bo Xilai, party secretary in Chongqing, Politburo member and candidate for the Politburo standing committee in 2012, and his son Bo Guagua, a graduate student at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. The salary for aminister is said to be 140,000 yuan or $22,000 a year. Yet because of the power and economic influence of the Communist party leaders and their offspring, and the state run economy, a great deal of wealth and influence is controlled by this group. In 2010 an internet account described the son of a former vice president buying a $32.4 million harbor-front mansion in Australia.

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The Economist magazine says Mr. Trump's claim that he could fix things because he is an outsider is now quickly proving to be false. The lack of experience works against the Trump administration as it stumbles from one crisis to another. The tweets that were used to turn voter sentiment against opponents now work the other way. There are other problems that are noted here but not emphasized to the extent they need to be. Mr. Trump, as Peggy Noonan, a Reagan aide, has pointed out in the WSJ, risks alienating the very blue collar vote, and older voters whose interests he claimed to defend. This happened with the Ryan Republican House health care bill as millions of poor Americans approaching retirement were one of the worst affected groups. The Economist points out that the next project to tackle tax reform has the same possible consequences for the Trump blue collar base, as it says Republican plans for tax reform are seen as regressive. Tax reform has eluded previous administrations, and requires more experience in building coalitions which the Trump administration lacks in its confrontational attitude towards Congressmen on both sides of the aisle who disagree with him. Improving the U.S. trade position, infrastructure investment are other areas that the administration plans to tackle, yet the first 100 days show that the lack of experience and the lack of a calm composed mind is hurting the Trump administration, to the point of policies that hurt the very voters who put their faith in the Trump administration to improve things. A similar process is unfolding in Britain as it faces a Brexit negotiation that the Economist points out has been badly handled by prime minister Theresa May, and could lead to worsening the economy if no deal is reached because the European Union sees that it is not in its interest to do so, and Ms. May realizes only later that she has taken nationalist sentiment a bit too far for a European economic arrangement to work and provide mutual benefit. A continent wide economic arrangement that it was the wisdom of past leaders from Britain, France and Germany to support for over six decades is not easily undone by one vote, or one government. ...

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Karl Rove, advisor to President George W. Bush, and organizer behind American Crossroads political action committee, says the election will be decided by the higher support for Romney among independents and the high turnout of Republican voters. The prediction for the voter turnout among Republicans is 36% Republican vs. 35% Democratic, according to Gallup. This compares with the 39% Republican and 37% Democratic in 2004, and 39% Democratic 29% Republican in 2008. The early and absente ballot voting advantage has significantly gone down almost by half for Democrats as more Republicans cast early votes in swing states like Ohio. Closing statements and crowds also appear to confirm this trend. Rove sees this as 51% to 48% favoring the Republicans. The addition of swing states - Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania also appears to suggest that a broader movement is underway that is happening right now in the final week before the election on Nov. 6, 2012. Rove focusses on the numbers. A behavioural assessment shows the importance in this campaign of the centrist position adopted by Romney in the closing months of the campaign; the selection of Ryan which gave Romney support from the Republican conservative base so that he could talk freely about his record in the liberal state of Massachusetts to independent voters and women, and most important the clear message to voters focussed on a five point plan to get the economy recovery were critical in shaping these numbers....

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Crime by violent street gangs with whole sections of cities controlled by different groups, some a remnant of the guerilla wars, has fueled the migration crisis. Many people have left central American countries of San Salvador, Costa RIca, Guatemala, because of the crime and extortion experienced and the lack of law and order in these countries. Criminal violence by these gangs hurts business which leads to even fewer economic opportunities for young people. This leads to a steady flow of migrants to the borders of Mexico trying to enter the U.S. Experts say 95% of homicides in these central American countries are not tackled, with severe distrust of police.  There are fewer emigrants from Mexico as the economy has improved and population growth has slowed. Most of the faces of migrants are now from the Central American countries. A program is underway to create jobs skills in Honduras. But this a small effort in tackling a much bigger problem of violence, lack of economic opportunity, and the legacy of the civil wars in central America in an earlier period that have left whole sections of urban areas under control of former guerillas and militia turned into gangs.  ...

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During a trip to Italy for a G-7 foreign ministers meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson makes a symbolic stop at a memorial in Lucca, where 560 men, women and children were massacred by the Nazis in World War II. Tillerson said at the memorial that "we rededicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world." Also present at the memorial were Frederica Mogherini, the European Union's chief of foreign policy, and Susanne Wasum-Rainer, German ambassador to Italy. British foreign secretary Boris Johnson said Europe supported the U.S. A meeting on Syria is being added to the G-7 meetings which includes the foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, United Arab Emirates.

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As a Sunday school teacher Jimmy Carter brought evangelical Christians in the South into the political process. And it encouraged the emergence of other southerners such as Bill Clinton of Arkansas from small towns into Democratic politics. In doing so it distanced the Democratic party from it's roots as a party of the working man, of the working class and labor, of farmers and small business owners, that it had been from 1902 with TR taking up this stance and followed by FDR, Truman, Kennedy-Johnson. Leading to the situation today after Clinton brought China into the WTO and changed world trade, exchanging places with China as a leader in manufacturing, integrating Silicon Valley into the Democratic party under Obama and distancing from working class concerns. Gerald Seib in his tribute to Cater says in WSJ that he was a good man who was president at a bad time. The problems of inflation and cost of living at 10.4% and mortgage rates at 13%, oil prices with the Iran crisis under Carter were problems that were a result of actions taken by the US in the period going back to the 1950's for Iran and embargoes on oil from lack of conservation in oil use in the US. What Carter accomplished is to open the door to new faces out of nowhere- a small town in Georgia was not a place where a presidential hopeful cold be found in previous eras. Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Adams, TR, Wilson, Harding, Hoover, FDR were all from well known families in the East Coast and Northeast. Only Abraham Lincoln emerged from a small town in Illinois. It opened the door for other southerners Clinton from Arkansas and new faces Reagan and Trump.   ...

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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More than a retreat it gives the US, EU, India, China and the nations in Asia and Africa, Latin America most affected by higher oil prices and lower economic growth a time to pause and rethink dependence on the Gulf region for oil supplies. It is not mentioned in the media yet there has to be a link between the US president's visit to Beijing and Beijing's support for a normalized US China relationship, and offering its support for a settlement. This gives EU, China, India, Japan, and poorer nations in Africa, Asia, such as Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, some relief from reduced access to oil supplies. US is also planning a supply from Venezuela to India to take pressure off oil supplies in Asia by offering Venezuela as an alternative source. China is in many ways joining the US to bring about a denuclearized Middle East, doing it in a quieter way with Iranian public opinion making a shift to put its economic development ahead of missile development. As the two sides have different interpretations and it is still only a Memorandum of Understanding it is not a situation where the US is sending billions of dollars to support the military in Iran as Obama had done. Attention will shift to the Iranian economy over the next 12 months.  US conveys that it has nothing to gain from wrecking the Iranian economy or nation as the Iranian people if avote were held today would clearly choose putting the economy first by huge margins considering the widespread protests in Iran in 2025 that started this crisis. The US naval blockade was effective and is always an option, with US and partners having greater experience in the situation presented by the narrow straits in Hormuz. Arab partners also acted with restraint and is itself an opportunity for Iran to change direction. China's making cuts of 3 million barrels a day in oil supplies from Hormuz is itself along with acceleration of renewable energy in both China and India is one of the dividends of this crisi. Another is the gradual shift to alternative supplies from other regions of the world so that Hromuz region can no longer dictate oil prices in the world. Accelerating Venezuelan and UAE, US, other oil and gas  supply growth will also put increase supply and renewables reduce  demand growth as a result of the crisis to break the hold on oil prices of the oil cartels of Qatar, and Saudis. As a transition fuel oil can be be kept below $50 a barrel, not at prices at the whims of the princes in the Middle East at the expense of the people of the Arab world from Egypt the most populous and Tunisia, Morocco, to the Muslim nations such as Turkey and Pakistan,Iran itself which bore the brunt of this Hormuz crisis. The US has several priorities including in its relations with oil cartels dominated Mexico that  brings drugs and people across US borders, with other nations in EU and Asia that have benefitted through deindustrialization in the US leaving it poorer across a vast part of America. Advancing objectives in one area such as denuclearization does not mean not addressing priorities at home and in relations with other regions. China shares American interest in denuclearization of the Middle East this should now be put to the test. It is an entirely different situation in 2026 than what weak leaders from Bush to Obama allowed to happen by  wars in the Middle East - the US naval blockades of 2025/2026 are entirely different in cost in terms of men and dollar investment and used to convey America's determination not to waste vital resources of the Nation. The best policy is not to pursue policy for absolute wins but make intelligent choices and in some situations pause to reflect on the best course of action and other ways to reach goals. By getting China and the US as world powers for denuclearization even though this is not vocally said, both gain and both will come up with solutions. ...

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Twitter, Facebook, Groupon, LinkedIn, Pandora and other names command large valuations. Twitter's curent valuation is estimated at between 8-10 billion dollars. Twitter has sales revenue for 2010 of $45 million, and it had a loss as it invested heavily in data centers and hiring. Estimates of revenue for 2011 are between $100 million and $110 million. Twitter is trying to build its ad revenue with a 20 person sales team headed by Mr Bain, a former Fox Interactive Media president.

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Herman Rompuy, president of the European Union, says Europe can't afford its social system without economic growth. Timothy Garten Ash, Professor of European Studies at Oxford, thinks Europe will have to totally redesign the social model and the social market economy. He points to comments about increasing economic growth as part of the "old rhetoric and totally indequate to the crisis we face." Instead of the social rhetoric he sees the need for the "language of blood, sweat and tears."

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Friedman on the energy bill, why its watered down in response to efforts of coal-state democrats in the absence of any support from Republicans, and why he still thinks by setting a price on carbon emissions this bill put forward by Waxman and Markey is good for America and the world. The need for young Americans to mobilize support, and for President Obama to do the same. The bill's goal is to reduce carbon emissions to 17% below 2005 levels.

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Charles Blow says blacks are suffering higher foreclosures, higher unemployment, and the quality of life for black people is collapsing, as President Obama is not listening or paying atttention to the pressing needs of black people. His point is that Obama needs white voters more than he needs black voters. He sees Obama more as a gamesman now than agamechanger for black people. And he talks about a backlash amng black people, as black people are getting disenchanted with Obama.

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Gregory Fleming was President and Chief Operating Officer of Merrill Lynch in 2007 and left when it merged with Bank of America. He later joined Yale Law School as lecturer. The new CEO of Morgan Stanley Gorman has appointed Fleming as head of Morgan Stanley's investment management business. Fleming played a key role in the combination of Merrill Lynch investment managemet with money manager Black Rock, where he was a director. At Merrill Fleming oversaw the private equity and real estate investment businesses.

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The 34 names are signatories on the nonpartisan manifesto calling on the president and congress to pay attention to the debt which in 2009 went up from $5.8 trillion to $7.6 trillion, rising from 41% to 53% of GDP. With projections for the debt to rise by 2018 to 85% leaving the American economy in tatters. The 34 include, says Broder, Paul Volcker and seven former directors of the Office of Management and Budget, and seven former directors of the Congressional Budget Office.