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Cracks are appearing in Japan's manufacturing model in recent years. Kobe Steel, Mitsubishi Materials and Subaru Corp have admitted to manipulating quality inspections. Takata Corp, maker of airbags is a case study in what can go wrong, as the company declared bankruptcy after failing to tackle safety problems and supplying defective airbags. The case is all the more astounding as airbags are designed for ensuring the safety of automobile passengers, a key feature of every automobile.  The situation is one of failure of management to take the right actions. This also happened with Toyota as management missteps worsened the issues related to faulty acceleration of vehicles, leading to media focus on Toyota in the U.S. Japan is not unique in this area of management failures as VW's actions in the diesel emissions case have clearly shown. Pressures to cut costs are part of the problem as this report shows. In Japanese companies quality checking staff employees are the targets of cost cutting layoffs resulting in the faulty step of outsourcing quality checks, which is contrary to what the country's pioneers sought to do when they adopted American Total Quality methods in the 1960's. This creates opportunities for China today, and for India in the future if it is able to capitalize on the opportunities in manufacturing desperately needed for job creation.    ...

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Iraq is Iran's most promising market for gas exports. Iraq needs the gas for its power stations now that Islamic State has been decisively cleared from Iraq. Yet Iraq is having difficulty making payments to Iran for gas supplies because banks are not ready to handle the payments with the reimposed tighter U.S. sanctions and restrictions. The deputy head of media at the Electricity ministry in Iraq, Sadoun Shehan, told WSJ that transfer of money by Iraqi banks is prevented because of U.S. sanctions. U.S. sanctions were reimposed by the Trump administration after they were lifted in January 2016. The new sanctions prohibit gas exports from Iran. Iran had hoped to make the sales and also export to the European Union when sanctions were lifted. Iranian exports of gas that started in 2017 were itself delayed for 4 years by the war from Islamic State.  Iran has the second largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The Trump administration's sanctions have led to a drop of Iranian crude shipments by 29% in 3 months and added to upward pressure on oil prices to take prices to $80 a barrel. This issue has implications for India and China, particularly India as it faces both higher prices for oil and the tight restrictions in purchase of Iranian oil. ...

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BBC looks at Bo Xilai and other officials in the years of the capitalist experiment under Deng, Zemin and Jintao, who ignored China's history and sacrifices of the thirties and forties fighting Japanese invasion and the struggles for modernization. And who attempted to personally gain advantage from the two decade experiment with capitalism to take China in a different and unknown direction. This may have shaped Xi Jinping's ideas for the new directions needed to continue the progress made.

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Chancellor Merkel calls on China to respect Hong Kong citizen's right to free speech during premier Li Keqiang's visit to Berlin in Oct. 2014.

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China's push for globalization is being perceived internationally as an effort to promote its own industries.

Clashes with the U.S. on trade have changed the perception of China in global trade compared to what it was four years ago or in 2008. Tariffs in the U.S. on Chinese imports, slowing foreign investment, inflated property prices, bad debt at banks, and shrinking working age population, are leading to slowing growth which in coming years could drop from 6.1% in 2019. The Belt and Road Initiative is also being perceived differently as it has led to increased in indebtedness of countries in Africa and Asia, debt that cannot be paid back. Much of the ebullient optimism of a few years back is no longer present. The Pew Research Center survey of 34 countries in December 2019 shows about 45% of adults surveyed lacking confidence in China's policy positions in world affairs, according to this report in the WSJ.

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In a new first China's Chang'e-4 probe is about to touch down Jan 3rd on the dark side of the moon, and dispatch a rover in a vast crater to explore the moon. China is using this as the first step in setting up a planned lunar base by 2030. This happens as president Trump revives the U.S. space program after it languished under the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations restricting to unmanned space exploration.

China National Space Administration is the best funded space agency in the world after U.S.'s NASA. Some experts say NASA has lost its focus falling victim to shifting political agendas. An earlier funded program to return astronauts to the moon by NASA was cancelled in 2010 during the Obama administration. This is now jolting the Trump administration into action to revive the programs whose goals are now harder to achieve for the moon program dates in 2023.

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This editorial in the WSJ tackles the issue of Russian hacking during the U.S. presidential election by saying that this should not be seen as a move by Democrats after the election defeat, and yet at the same time supports the Republican Congress's efforts to hold an inquiry into the hacking during the election. 

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Steve Lee Myers reporting from Moscow and St. Petersburg, Jo Becker from Washington and London, and Jim Yardley from Nicosia, Cyprus, provide this extraordinary and exceptional report on the rise of a small group of friends, mostly from Mr. Putin's time in St. Petersburg, into a new sort of oligarchy replacing the old one under Mr. Yeltsin. This includes more familiar names such as Sechin at Rosneft, but also less familiar names such as Mr. Kovalchuk, chairman of Bank Rossiya, which owns major television and radio stations and newspapers in Russia. M. Kovalchuk is described as having acquired many of these media properties at a fraction of their real value. Bank Rossiya assumed management of assets of Gazprombank, and Gazprom bank purchased Gazprom Media with five television and a number of radio stations for $166 million, when Medvedev, a Putin associate put the value at $7.5 billion 2 years following the acquisition, according to this report. Other assets acquired in this manner include Channel 5 and Ren TV, giving Putin's inner circle control of the media and reducing any critical or different views on issues facing Russia. Many of Gazprom's assets were transferred to Bank Rossiya, say critics, including insurer Sogaz which was acquired for $100 million, later valued at $2 billion, says the report. Names on the this inner circle also include Yakunin, head of Russian Railways, also include names like Fursenko and Timchenko. Most of the people in this inner circle are now targets of western sanctions. Missing in this report is mention that that this inner circle of the second term as president replaces the larger circle of the first terms as president and prime minister, with Putin benefitting from experts and advisors in the first terms. That circle included Finance minister Kudrin known for his successful management of the economy, and others who left the administration after flawed parliamentary elections. Even prime minister Medvedev is not mentioned as part of this inner circle, suggesting a degree of isolation which could be perilous for the Russian economy as it deprives the Russian president of different opinion and useful advice. This is a pattern seen in many emerging market countries which experience corruption during the period of industrial development. A pattern seen also in China under the Communist Party. And in Venezuela where a new Bolivarist class was created. In emerging market democracies such as India and Turkey the problem is also present, except that in India the recent open election led to the ouster of the Congress led government with many cases of corruption in its second term. A similiar election led to a new government in Indonesia, showing that there is another way beyond the Putin Way. Behind the protests in Hong Kong and in Russia, as well as in India, were the huge gaps in wealth and the growing inequality, corruption, lack of responsiveness of ruling governments. In Russia this takes another dimension with efforts to control the internet and media, and efforts to spread this style of democracy. This has created problems in the Putin government's relations with western nations having open societies and free media, and unwilling to accept a distorted model of democracy. Another less noticed aspect of the evolution of these emerging markets is that upto a point development proceeds even accelerates even in the presence of corruption, and then reaches a point where development and growth slows with problems of corruption, mismanagement of resources, declining productivity, economic and political errors, or unfavorable external environment. India faced this problem in 2012-2013, Russia is likely to face this in 2015, and China faces the prospect of growth slowdown by 2016. This feature of emerging markets also reminds one of the frequently quoted old English saying by Lord Acton- "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." An idea also attributed to William Pitt the Elder who said- "unlimited power tends to corrupt the minds of those who possess it." ...

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This WSJ editorial is critical of Donald Trump's statements that it is fine if South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons, as this only sets up a nuclear arms race with China, and would upset the peace in East Asia that was maintained for decades with the American nuclear umbrella for both nations. It also points to Mr Trump's singular lack of the facts that Japan pays $2 billion and South Korea $900 million for the U.S. to station the modest level of troops and bases it has in the two countries. Mr. Trump's lack of grasp of the larger issues and lack of knowledge of facts is a problem in the campaign, but never so greatly as it is in issues relating to nuclear weapons and proliferation.

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Prospects for the global economy in 2016- debt to GDP ratios high in Turkey, Brazil and China lead to problems and slowing growth. India an exception in emerging markets with growth rate above 7%, benefitting from increasing foreign investment and halving of oil prices. U.S. recovers slowly, and the eurozone emerges from the debt crisis with need for further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Russia recovers gradually after a steep devaluation of the ruble. Ironically just when a slow recovery is taking place in 2015-2016, the private sector governance improvements, and serious tackling of debt problems, lead one to conclude that prospects for the long term are better today than in 2005 when the optimism was not well grounded because of weak governance and debt buildup.

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In the first quarter of 2011 consumer demand for gold in China increased by 47% over the prior year quarter to 233 tons, according to the World Gold Council's data. Most of this is for jewelry accounting for 64% in 2010, with gold bar demand increasing as an hedge against inflation. Orlik points out that if inflation decreases from the existing level of 5.3%, and with the increase in wealth management products from Chinese banks, the demand for gold may not be sustained as it offers no return. He says urban resident demand may have reached its peak and there is not much demand from the rural population. Central bank purchases to shift a small part of foreign exchange reserves to gold is the only other factor for a push up in gold prices.

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The peaceful transition in Zambia as Michael Sata wins the election. Sata's party won the election with 43% of the votes compared to Hastings Banda's party's 36%. The outgoing president Hastings Banda's party had been in power for two decades. This is a remarkable peaceful transition of power after disputed elections in the Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe and Nigeria. Sata's support came from the urban young, jobless people and the labor unions. He was critical of mining investments by western companies and China for paying low wages, and campaigned for higher tax revenues from the mining industry. This is a remarkable transition and a good example for future elections in Africa. Recent elections in the Ivory Coast led to a transition that had to be enforced with French support.

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The results of a Wall Street Journal analysis of 11 countries shows the risk of a stretched out period of stagnation in the economies of the USA, the UK and Japan. Jobs is a critical area in which this is apparent. In Japan employment is down 3.3% from December 2007, in the UK 2% lower, and in the USA 4.8% lower from December 2007. U.S. household debt is down from 131% in early 2008 to 122%, and poses a big burden. In the UK the household debt is larger than in the USA. And Japan's deficits are over 200% of GDP, creating an overhang that depresses jobs and growth. S. Korea, Taiwan and Australia have benefitted from the recovery since 2008 in China, India and the rest of Asia.

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President Obama picks Dartmouth College president, Jim Yong Kim, as the U.S. choice for president of the World Bank. Kim is a physician who co-founded Partners in Health, a nonprofit organization for providing health care to the poor. He was a former director of the Department of HIV/AIDS at the World Health Organization. Working with Partners in Health in Lima, Peru, mid-1990's, he helped establish a large scale treatment program for drug resistant tuberculosis. Such programs are being promoted in 40 countries since then. Under the leadership of Mr. Zoellick, the World Bank provided $57 billion in assistance to low and middle income countries in 2011. About $90 billion was raised in a fund to be used for aid to the poor in developing countries, including China and India.

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Internet penetration in India is increasing rapidly. India had 71 million internet users in 2009 by one estimate. Current estimates are of 80-100 million internet users. India's internet penetration as percentage of population of 5% is low compared to China which is at 28.9%, Brazil at 39.2%, and Mexico at 28.3%, according to figures from the International Telecommunication Union. Analysts expect the launch of third generation broadband networks will help increase internet use in India. One study done by investment bank Caris & Co. shows internet use growing to 180-200 million users by 2015. Most of the major internet sites are in news, job-search or match-making. Internet retail is just beginning to grow with online purchases of $1.4 billion in 2010 going up to $5 billion in 2012.

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This WSJ editorial summarizes the main reasons Republicans and many others object to increase in U.S. contributions as the IMF increases its resources under a new plan. The reforms increase the influence of Brazil, China, India, Turkey and other countries in the IMF governance. Also at issue is European influence that the U.S. sees allowing risky loans to countries such as Greece, where rules were relaxed under EU influence during the eurozone crisis. This topic of IMF reform will be coming up in the G 7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Dec 2014 at Sydney, Australia, with the new U.S. IMF representative defending U.S. interests. The case for the reforms was presented in WSJ by Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, and is part of the link.

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Money from the mainland is fueling a real estate bbubble in Hong Kong. One 5 bedroom apartment with 6000 square feet sold for 56.5 million dollars or 439 million HK dollars. Hong Kong pegs its currency to the dollar and links interest rates to the dollar, With the money pouring into Hong Kong banks mortgages areavailable for 2.05%, with interest rates going up in the USA this would change making payments much higher. Hong Kong plans to release some of the manufacturing space that it has reserved for developing new industries in new fields and technologies- these are areas used by plants that shifted to China for lowwage labor in the 1990's. In Hong Kong the government owns all the land and leases it to developers for 99 year leases.

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The German car market has shrunk 19% vs 1992. Its at 3.148 million new car registrations in 2007, a drop of 9.2% from 2006. The new car market is declining in both Germany and Japan which is why we should see more emphasis on Eastern Europe and Russian market in the European area, and on emerging country markets especially in Asia in the years ahead, a process already underway. Foreign car makers from Europe and the USA will face competition from the likes of Cherry in China and Tata in India with aggressive price competition. The most effiicent and innovative producers will survive because even though these are emerging markets the buyers will be looking for the best design, quality and technology, and will have good knowledge of prices and what is offered by competitors.

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The focus is shifting from the oil majors to the companies in the oil field services sector, companies that supply the oil companies with oil field services. Deepwater oil field drilling rigs some of the most modern computer controlled ones run $650 million are in great demand and one Norwegian supplier of drilling rigs has anticipated the demand for advanced deepwater drilling rigs which the major oil companies had not invested in and is now in a position to charge $600,000 a day for the advanced rigs he has ordered 3 years ago as the deepwater drilling took off in places like offshore Angola. Earlier this Norwegian had anticipated the shift to long haul shipping of oil to places like India and China from Iran and offshore Africa.