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According to a study by Goldman Sachs, an supported by other experts, the USA is only half way through the housing crisis. Goldman estimates that there will be a 18-20% correction overall with about 11-13% further price declines expected. In some states a decline of 25% is expected. These are states that saw huge runup in prices- Virginia and Maryland, Florida, California and Arizona, and New Jersey.

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Shiller points out that statistical models used by economists can't quantify the risk of a double-dip recession. Confidence indexes show gradual trends so they too are poor at picking up the dangers inherent in the increasing levels of uncertainty and the increasing vulnerability of confidence in the economy. The potential of sudden events in derailing confidence is great. He cites the 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market on May 6, as one example. And the potential of the BP oil spill creating havoc for the Gulf economy is another such event. Shiller says his definition of a douple dip recession looks at the long term, and doesn't see the short term as a way to correctly read the economic situation. He sees a douple dip recession as a rise in unemployment to high levels, and becomes sticky after that, only nudged down insignificantly. Before unemployment can be brought down a second recession occurs, and there could be years in between. Shiller's Buy-on-Dips stock Market Confidence Index prepared since 1989 shows a steady decline in individual investor confidence since 2009....

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A report from Roubini Global Economics says state and local government financial problems are not of a systemic nature and should not affect the U.S. financial system. The report sees defaults as isolated events. Still it says reforms will be needed only some of which have been made, and preventing a crisis will require real austerity. The report predicts $100 billion in muni-bond defaults over 5 years.

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Italy faces tighter restrictions and a national lockdown at Easter for the coronavirus, Italians who were the first to go into lockdown on March 10, 2020, now think they will be the last to exit lockdowns. The mood in Europe is of frustration with the slow vaccination drive and the failure to procure enough vaccine supplies and to approve vaccines in time. The US and Britain have vaccination drives that are moving rapidly leading to a reduction in cases and deaths. In Europe new cases are rising since mid February 2021, and there is the spread of the new variant first detected in the UK.  The variants make up 70% of new cases in France says Health Minister Olivier Veran. ICU's in France are 80% full. Elections in France in 2022 and in Germany in September 2021 are leading to government reluctance to impose tighter restrictions. The government strategy is now being questioned. Only 30% of Germans now have confidence in chancellor Merkel's ability to make competent decisions. The CDU's partner in the government, the SDU socialists have even less trust with SDU getting less than 10%. There are signs of a third wave of coronavirus in Germany resulting from variants of the virus, slow vaccinations, and reopenings. ...

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Broughton, Williams and Maurer, WSJ, talk to companies that sell to the average American Skechers for shoes and Lee, Wrangler for jeans. Lee and Wrangler executives say price increases are an option, it all depends on the size of the DJT tariffs.  In general companies will take the following actions in sequence of priorities. Move as much of the manufacturing away from high tariff targeted China to other countries. Wrangler and Lee are not faced with this problem as only 2% of products are sourced from China. Most of the jeans are made in Bangladesh and Mexico. Wrangler Lee brands will increase savings from efficiencies in supply chain by $100 million. This could put a squeeze on margins of local makers in Bangladesh, but also come from other savings. For Skechers it makes 40% of products in china, 40% in Vietnam, and the rest in other countries. It will continue to shift away from China, into other countries. And price increases are a "high likelihood" say Skecher's executives. Most companies will try to reduce impact on margins, look for concessions from vendors, then weigh price increases. How will Apple with its high margins respond is a question. It will accelerate the shift of making mobile phones and laptops to its operations in India.  ...

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Advice on walking away from a home loan when you are way under water, and it makes no sense to keep writing checks, and when government help is not there as you are way under water. Martin Feldstein had warned abut this as a major cause of rising foreclosures from early last year. Now without government help this looks like a rising tide for many homeowners under water. This financial planner says its feasible, and may make sense. He talks to the Mortgage Bankers Association, and a spokesman there tells him that its cost prohibitive for a bank to chase down a borrower in financial difficulty. And some states have laws that prohibit banks from going after borrowers for the remainder after foreclosure, including California and Arizona, two of the worst affected. And a lawyer arranging the foreclosure, can put in writing a waiver for this. For the tax impact, he says recent laws eliminate a federal tax through 2012 on most primary resident debt that a lender has reduced through loan restructuring, or forgiven through foreclosure. And states like California and Arizona have passed laws echoing these federal rules. Then there is the question of credit. Yes, its impaired for about 7 years. But with so many in foreclosure there may be an effort by credit unions and financial institutions to destigmatize borrowers who have foreclosed. A law Professor at George Mason University says credit scores will have to be adjusted to lessen the impact of a foreclosure, as this does not carry the information value in 2009 that it would say in 2005. And with so many people in foreclosure there is an emerging market here, according to credit union lender BECU in Washington state. If other than foreclosure you have good credit, its not going to be a big issue, says the director of the Rental Property Owners of Michigan, especially as good tenants are not that easy to find in this difficult economic environment anyway. What this suggests is that many will take this option and foreclosures will rise for the rest of 2009, especially if the job losses go on for longer in the range of 400,000 to 600,000 that we have seen for the last 4 months. Changes in the bankruptcy laws and restructuring the loans on that basis, or government help to those under water in some future plan that lowers payments to something in the range of 30-40%, are ways in which this can be averted. But with job losses of this magnitude a lot of people would end up in serious difficulty, and consider the foreclosure option....

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NPR showed this report on December 2, 2022, which pertains to the debt ceiling vote. About a third of Republican pickups in the Congressional elections came from an unexpected place New York state. These moderates 4 from Long Island alone, come from districts where Democrats are a majority and they risk being defeated if they are not careful to let extreme Republicans get their way in a way that offends New York's voters. This has relevance today because 213 Democrats in the House have signed a petition to force a vote in the House. Five moderate Republicans are all it would take to get the 218 votes to pass lifting the debt ceiling.

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Prof. John Ashton, regional director of public health for the northwest of England offers this advice on pitfalls to avoid in the testing and contact tracing systems of the UK and other countries. He says there is a problem in sending testing kits through the mail or postal service. He points out that the swabs needed for testing correctly are quite invasive, the risk of an inadequate sample taken in high, resulting in a false negative report. 

On contact tracing he says the current recruiting system has pitfalls of contact tracing people not having local knowledge. Needed are people who know the local population and are able to fully engage with these people.

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Realtor commissions average 5.5 to 6.5% for decades split evenly between buyer and seller broker agents. Overall commissions in UK are 1.3%, Netherlands 1.8% by comparison. Another cost of living action is being taken by the US Justice Department. This Editorial Board editorial in WSJ says realtors are using rigged game in which home buyers and sellers end up paying high broker fees that are not paid in other countries. The US Justice Department of the Biden administration says- the Missouri verdict in a class action lawsuit against NAR for $1.8 billion settlement only offers cosmetic changes and will still perpetuate "stubbornly high broker fees." WSJ says legal scrutiny should continue. 

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American viewing habits are changing quickly. Streaming services and cable TV are now at the point where streaming has 34% of viewers and cable TV has 34% of viewers. Streaming is growing at the rate of 22% a year and cable TV is declining at 9% a year. Broadcast TV has 21% of viewers and is declining at 10% a year. Streaming services are You Tube, Reuters for news events and entertainment streaming is done by Netflix, Apple TV and Amazon.

This means fewer and fewer viewers will follow the news channels, such as MSNBC, Fox News, ABC, CBS and more will be communicated on You Tube and internet news services.

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The US Federal Reserve's interest rate increases are having an effect in cooling inflation in the US. The inflation report for May shows US inflation at 4%, half the inflation at its peak in 2022. The policies of the Biden administration are leading to increased investment in infrastructure and manufacturing in the US. This combined with lower inflation, assistance to the needy for the increases in cost of living, are helping boost the US economy in 2023. This is also setting the foundation for the kind of growth and confidence that the US has not seen since its recovery from World War II in the nineteen fifties and sixties.

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China is going through a long period of debt reduction or deleveraging in which income is diverted to payoff debt and debt reduction. Debt has piled up at local governments, households, and the private sector during the period of heavy borrowing to expand the economy and build infrastructure. BIS data shows total debt in China at 295% of GDP in September 2022 compared to 257% in the US and 258% in the Eurozone. This report in WSJ says consumers are hoarding cash and refusing to take out new loans, private businesses are barely investing, and local governments are paring down debt for all expenses including worker's salaries and roads.

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NYT's Jeanna Smialek says there are lower inflation expectations with the Fed in the fight. This will help the economy in 2024, and help president Biden in managing the economy. Slower rent increases, and declining demand for housing, cars, with higher interest rates sharply increasing mortgage payments and car leases, is helping to slow inflation. Lower inflation expectations help because buyers are less willing to pay higher prices and falling demand acts to slow price increases by retailers and manufacturers. The Fed's fight against inflation without letting up, and China's slowing economy have reduced demand to where inflation expectations are set to be much lower by 2024.

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These lead cables are what is left of the old cables laid decades back by the Bell regional phone network. They are underwater, in the soil an d on poles overhead. As the lead erodes and disintegrates it contaminates the water and the soil. Unsafe levels of it are found in 44 of 130 underwater sample sites tested by independent labs for the WSJ. It has tainted spots such as popular fishing locations, in front of schools and in playgrounds. It was found in the Willamette River in Oregon, in the Mississippi river banks in Louisiana, in the Detroit River in Michigan and the Passaic river in New Jersey. 

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It is not just about the Apple ad Crush video that turns millions of hours of creativity in books media by crushing it into an iPad Pro that people find repulsive. Look carefully and the iPad which was touted for it helping to create a big change in promoting education has done little and Apple has not increased literacy in the world through the iPad. New products from Apple, Google and other tech companies are only slight variations from the old. A thinner iPad when the previous iPad was already thin, and small changes at the periphery that are no longer in much demand. Prices are still way too high.

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US economic growth was 2.8% in the second quarter 2024 with broad based growth in consumer spending, business investment and government infrastructure spending, Commerce Department shows. Inflation and consumer prices went down from 3.4% in the first quarter 2024 to 2.6%. This is a good sign for the economy's resilience. Yet housing costs are high and families are struggling with high cost of rentals. This applies to moderate and low income families who are struggling. Consumers have kept on spending because unemployment is low  buyers face lower inflation, and wage growth is higher than inflation. For the second quarter of 2024 after tax income adjusted for inflation was 1%.

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US Canada relations in a downward spiral after Carney's words about "economic coercion" and China at Davos. In this case it has incensed Luttnick and Bessent. Bessent has called for US to have relations with Alberta. The Liberal Party had run into problems with its attitude towards the US in the western hemisphere under Trudeau. Carney was supposed to fix this but Canada under Carney has sought to stoke Canadian identity as a way to win elections, when throughout  most of its history Canada and particularly after Dominion status has linked its identity to the US. In fact British constitutional expert Ivor Jennings has pointed out that Canada's trade patterns within Canada are an aberration as it would normally trade with its neighbors north to south (Quebec/Ontario with New England) not east to west  (Ontario with Alberta) as it has done when Canada became a separate state in North America. As Carney and DJT engage in tit for tat it remains unlikely that the USMCA will be negotiated and renewed, creating new uncertainty for the Canadian economy that Carney was expected to address with immigration, housing and other problems left behind by Trudeau's Liberals. ...

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Three BBC correspondents on China's 2026 National People's Congress - effort to invest in childcare and elder care services to increase consumer spending. To continue in solar, robotics, AI, EV's, and exports as before. The problems of industrial overcapacity and pushing subsidized product into the US or EU that cause trade tensions and tariffs will continue.  New 301 investigations by US Trade Representative are taking place and will complete by mid-July. Germany's chancellor was in Beijing making a similar point about industrial overcapacity and German business is now facing the same threats to their business that the US has gone through. The one other way for China to grow is to increase consumer spending- hence the effort to help young people with childcare costs and retired people with elder care. The payments to seniors is low says the BBC's McDonnell who says the increase in payment to rural and non-working urban residents of $3 per month is miniscule. No details given for housing support to newly married couples. On one aspect relevant to the Iran war-China is increasing its efforts on renewable energy to reduce imports from volatile Middle East. ...

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The new Social Studies, Civics and English Reading curriculum for K-12 in Texas Schools looks at a broader approach to reading of classics which have been largely bypassed in an erroneous approach to reading focused on whatever is in contemporary trends. The current approach is leading to a generation of children who do not know much about the Nation's history and culture and form of government, about the English language and its prominent American authors. One draft includes books like “The Very Hungry Caterpillar” by Eric Carle for kindergartners, “A Wrinkle in Time” by Madeleine L’Engle for seventh graders and the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I Have a Dream” speech for eighth graders. Frederick Douglas and Langston Hughes are also included. It also has passages from the Bible, including a meditation on Love from First Corinthians.  All this is happening as the Nation has a new Test alternative to ACT and SAT called the CLT Classical Learning Test which provides longer reading passages from English and American Literature and history, science, technology, world knowledge, far better than ACT or SAT. ...

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NT looks at the Florida Advanced Courses and Tests which provide an alternative to the approach taken by the Advanced Placement AP Courses. AP in American History of the College Board differs from FACTS AP history Course in many ways. College Boards AP History gives the history of America as a flawed nation, not the nation we know from the Declaration of Independence that has inspired people around the world with its bold statement "all men are created equal" by Thomas Jefferson that set forth the ideal to reach for. The problem the world feels with the flawed nation idea is that it does not make America the beacon of democracy, the rule of law, of scientific and industrial progress that offer a path to progress for the emerging nations of Africa, Latin America and Asia, that they can emulate. AP History of the College Board does not accept the idea that the Bible was the source of inspiration for the Pilgrims that came to the US on the Mayflower, and not reading the Bible is to not be able top see life as seen by the early settlers of the US, even when there were flaws. ...

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This report in DW.com looks at planting trees pledge of COP26 Glasgow. It says in planting trees it should be done using trees native to the land and the region so that water guzzling trees are not planted and water is conserved. Also important is to protect forests and restore habitats. Grasslands and peatlands are also ways to soak up carbon.

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Most of the Aeroflot and Russian airlines fleet of planes are now grounded. The action was taken by the Russian government to prevent the seizure of Russian planes in overseas locations. 515 of 865 planes in Russian commercial airlines are under leasing arrangements, with companies leasing the planes seeking to repossess the planes as soon as possible.

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Young people in Europe are one of the hardest hit groups in this pandemic. They are overrepresented in sectors such as travel, retail and tourism. where loss of jobs is the highest, particularly now that a second wave of coronavirus is hitting Europe. The lockdowns in Europe shut down many of these same sectors again.

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The greenest city in Europe. A city once known as steel city as it powered England through the Industrial Revolution starting in the 1700's. There are more trees than residents. About 19 percent of the city's area is green with trees. There are 7 trees per person in the city. The city is Sheffield in Yorkshire, England.

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Spanish coach Luis Enrique says the Argentine team of Lionel Scaloni with Messi in top form is way above the rest including European teams and Brazil. Argentina beat Italy recently and European teams such as Britain, Germany and Spain are not doing well. Players are playing too many games and lack rest periods with only 4-5 days to prepare.