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The US sends aircraft carrier group of the US 7th fleet with the aircraft carrier USS Reagan and destroyers on a freedom of navigation mission through the South China Sea. What is a freedom of navigation mission and what is the US goal? "Our presence in the Pacific is to demonstrate our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific," says commanding officer of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, Captain Fred Goldhammer. Seen on a map the Paracel Islands are far from China's coast. They lie on the waters further south in the South China Sea closer to the coast of Vietnam and between Vietnam and the Philippines. Till 1974 the Paracel Islands were part of Vietnam. In that year China took control of these islands after a war with Vietnam. The name Paracel is of Portuguese origin on maps in the 16th century. There are 130 islands or reefs with total area of about 3 square miles spread out over about 6000 square miles of ocean in the middle of the South China Sea near the coast of Vietnam. The French had  weather station there in 1932. After independence South Vietnam controlled the islands. In 1974 the islands were taken over by China from Vietnam. The result is that by taking over the islands China put itself in the position it is in Tibet. In Tibet it has put itself right across the Himalayas in a position that interferes with security on the border with India in the Himalayas that for centuries almost going back to Buddhist times 2500 years ago had very little and most of the time no Chinese presence. The passes in the Tibetan region are at heights over 15,000 feet that were mostly inaccessible except by yaks and other animals for transport for most of the 2500 year period. This is true also of the Paracel and other islands in the South China Sea as they are right in the middle of the seas of open navigation used by traders before the coming of the Europeans and for ocean going trade since 1500. Britain and the US have enjoyed free and open navigation in these oceans which connect past the Philippines into the Pacific to the Japanese islands and on to Hawaii and the US Pacific coast. What the US and European allies are saying is that the free and open navigation of the seas has always been the case for the last thousand years in the Pacific. The taking of the islands in 1974 by China from Vietnam now put it up against the US and European allies, and their Asian allies, as it interferes with navigation in the open seas essential for trade and travel between Asia and the Pacific. This is how the Chinese invasion of Tibet and the taking over of the Paracel Islands have put China into the position of interfering in the normally open and free areas in the Himalayas and the Pacific. This is where the Quad group shares a common interest in preserving what always existed in history-  a free and open Pacific and a free and open Himalayas. It brings together the US, Japan, India and Australia which stretch all the way from the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean uninterrupted all the way through Indonesia to Australia and Japan and the US. From the Mediterranean through Egypt into the Indian Ocean all the way to the Pacific and the US keeping free and open seas for trade and navigation. Or across the Cape of Good Hope into the Indian Ocean and the Pacific to the US. ...

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The strong U.S. job gains of 243,000, according to the Labor Department for January 2012, is a result of unusual factors and is not likely to last. Warmer than usual winter has permitted more construction activity and construction payrolls increased in Dec. and Jan. Another factor is that businesses are making up for labor requirements after the pause during the middle of 2011 from the tsunami and earthquake in Japan, and the uncertainty created by the debt ceiling crisis. The eurozone crisis, and weakness in housing will continue to affect the economy and hiring. The average for jobs created in the last 12 months was 163,000 each month. This rate of growth in jobs will reduce the unemployment rate in 2012, with fluctuations as an improved job market will bring more discouraged workers back looking for work.

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Can the new intelligence assessment that Iran gave up the effort to make nuclear weapons three years ago affect oil prices and to what extent? At least it calms the anxiety that there is an unknown out there being the development of nuclear weapons in the backyard of Iraq where US is involved and in a major oil producing region. This should take some of the pressure off oil prices and any its significant in another way, that any developments in the middle east would be taken in a different light, not as a part of a cloud of uncertainty but taken by evaluating the new development on its own merits carefully. Interestingly this happened in the same week that another development ocurred. The President of Venezuela lost a referendum in Venezuela designed to givie him emergency powers by amending the constitution. Even by controlling most of the media and using oil money to support social programs and giveaways to the poor and working classes, Chavez lost the referendum that he initiated. It was not clear what would happen in Venezuela, and the Iran development was a surprise, so this also means that in international affairs educated people will look at a lot of different possibilities from now on before drawing any conclusions. In fact this is exactly what appears to have happened in the case of the intelligence on Iran, as mentioned here the new assessment was based on allowing different agencies and groups within the government to come up with different conclusions and then to test the facts again and again, and to question old assumptions....

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Alas, economists and intellectuals such as Gita Gopinath of the IMF, just don't get it when they say the EU can increase growth by half percent meeting labor shortages using immigrants. As WSJ reports 50-60% of asylum seekers in Netherlands since 1999 are less skilled /less educated immigrants, are unemployed or on benefits.The new view across all parties is lets stop the immigration surges, its too overwhelming for the people to deal with, so that we can focus on cost of living and low wages for workers. Across Starmer's Labour in Britain, across Biden/Harris Democrats lined up with Republican Lankford in the US pledging to sign the legislation to close the southern Border, and in France Macron's premier Michel Barnier wants to do the same.   Mette Frederiksen of Denmark was a pioneer in the EU in showing that immigration acts as a distraction that hurts the working class as it distracts people from the key issues facing workers of cost of living and low wages, poor benefits. She was elected as a Socialist party leader in Denmark in 2015 and as prime minister in 2019. Sahra Wagenknecht, follows Mette Frederiksen, herself a daughter of immigrant, has formed her own party out of Socialist Die Linke in Germany which is now getting about 15% German voter support, 25% in the east, along similar lines to pause and stop immigration because it hurts the working class. In other parts of EU- France's Macron coalition has a prime minister who has called for a pause on immigration. US president Harris and Candidate Harris have pledged to sign bipartisan legislation drafted by Republican Senator Lankford to close the southern Border. The European Asylum Agency has the numbers at just over one million asylum seekers in EU in 2023 and agains in 2024 split by country- Germany 127,000 24% France 77,000 15%, and Italy and Spain 87,000 each 17% each Belgium, Netherlands and Austria 17,000 each at 3% each, Greece a bit higher. Some like the US and Germany with stronger economic base and industries can absorb the educated immigrants from middle class fleeing wars and strife, and less educated immigrants in construction and hospitality. The bigger danger is in creating support for parties that will use the issue to take whole economies and countries backwards by further depressing workers wages, benefits and rights, exacerbating social divisions around race and income that they say they will solve but have no economic policy to do this. All socialist and socialist democratic parties have grasped this in 2023-2024, some earlier by 2019. ...

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Readers of the NYT reflect on the Syria-Iraq conflict and the experience in Vietnam. Stuart Gottlieb, who teaches American foreign policy and international security at Columbia University, describes Logevall and Goldstein's Vietnam analogy for Syria as a situation on how one can go wrong by relying on historical reference when new thinking is required based on existing challenges. Others point to the situation in Vietnam as Kennedy's war with 16,000 advisors already on the ground. Kennedy's words "let every country know whether it wishes us well or ill, that we will support any friend, oppose any foe...," were part of the Cold War in the early sixties that Kennedy inherited from Eisenhower and Truman starting with a Communist Iron Curtain falling over Eastern Europe and threatening Western Europe. The situation today is quite different in a Middle East with little to do with Russia and China, at the same time sectarian with Sunni and Shia, and aspirations of Arab people for freedom from dictatorships....

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Syria borders Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, placing it in a pivotal geographical location. Because of this unique geography what happens in Syria affects Turkey because of the Kurdish minority in Syria, it affects Lebanon because of Syrian support to Hezbollah, it affects Jordan because of demands for democracy there, and it affects Israel because of the Golan Heights. Meantime the Syrian democracy protests continue with the military crackdown by the Assad government, which has ruled Syria since Hafez Assad, an air force commander, took power in 1970. After his death power was passed on to his son, as has happened much too frequently in the Middle East, resulting in the stifling of any movement for change and participation in government. An added complication is that Assad comes from the minority Alawite sect in a largely Sunni country.

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Speaking at a fireside chat at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington D.C. Indian finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman describes the task of lifting hundreds of millions from poverty in India done over the last 10 years. When China did this for about 400 million people by 2000 it had the support of the people of the US and Europe and the US opened its doors to favor China in its supply chain. How will the US and European Union respond to the same situation in India? This was accomplished in the US and Europe by the 1930's building on the work in the 1900 period. "We are reaching near saturation in providing the basic facilities to the people of the country. Have we removed these many number of people from poverty and lifted them out." "And that is to give them some good house to live in which is made of concrete and not of thatched roof with toilets in them, with drinking water reaching them through pipes, electricity, and a good road, not just the village, but also to streets in the village, and then connect them to the nearest highway; connect them with good transport facility and so on. And financial inclusion so that each member of the household has a bank account and they get every such benefit, which has to reach them, but directly into their bank account rather than through a middle agency. On skilling people "We are now focusing very much on skilling people, each according to their level. Skilling centers are now spread all over the country. The gradation of the skilling varies according to the individuals. Businesses and private sector entrepreneurs are also tied into it so that there is a link between the kind of training businesses want and actually those who are getting the training so that immediately they can get recruited. There will be a lot of skilling emphasis. On expanding the formalization of the economy getting rid of "the grey layer" India's digitization programme will be going on at full throttle and it'll cover most aspects of our lives. Today it covers health, education, and financial transactions. We expect it to move on to other areas as well so that there is greater ease of living and transparency, the economy gets even more formal. And therefore with that, you find  the economy gets its full strength coming on board, rather than having a second layer, which remains in the grey area. ...

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Lally Weymouth interviews Singapore's prime minister Lee Hsien Loong in March 2013. He says the leadership in China is experienced and have received preparation in different roles before their current positions. Their purpose he sees as taking China to the next level for the economy and making economic reforms, as well as adapting to a society that is changing fast with the growing middle class. He sees China's younger generation as being more nationalistic because of not having grown up and seen the war period in the thirties and forties and the chaos of the Cultural Revolution in the 1970's. He sees less immigration and slower growth in Singapore.

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German exports to Russia are growing at a rate of 25% for the first quarter of 2008, according to Mangold of the Ost-Ausschuss, a group promoting trade with Russia, even though it is only 3% of all German exports. Russia- Germany trade has reached 57 billion euros for 2007. German exports to Russia are vital to the continued growth of the small and middle sized companies in Germany. About 4600 of these companies operate in Russia today. These companies produce chemicals, autos and machine tools. The promotion of this trade was the focus ofa conference in Dresden last month with top level officials from both countries.

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President Trump announces the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Agreement of 2015 signed by president Obama. He calls it a bad deal and "a one sided agreement, that "didn't bring, calm, didn't bring peace, and never will." Since the signing of the agreement the conflicts in the Middle East have increased and relations between the U.S. and Iran have deteriorated under the Trump administration. During the election campaign candidate Trump and Republicans had criticized the deal and deal never gained Republican support. It was also not initially supported by France which called for stronger safeguards on nuclear weapons development. The appointment of John Bolton as National Security Adviser, and Mike Pompeo as the new Secretary of State, who were strong critics of the Iran nuclear deal also influenced president Trump. He was also influenced say aides by the success of his policy with North Korea of imposing strong bargaining pressure with tough sanctions on North Korea including Chinese sanctions, which led to the talks between North and South Korean presidents and the planned Trump meeting with Kim Jong-Un of North Korea. Iran's president Rouhani says Iran will stay with the agreement as the EU countries Germany, France plan to support the agreement. This could also leave an opening for future talks with Iran on a new peace agreement as  president Trump talked about Iranian people deserving a better deal at the end of his 11 minute announcement. As Stephens points out in a op-ed in the NYT Iran's economy needs the removal of sanctions so that focus could shift to economic development, as the lifting of sanctions have yet to result in increasing living standards and building infrastructure neglected during the sanctions years. ...

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Seib cites as a key reason why the presidential race in the U.S. could change- Romney leads by three percentage points over Obama among voters most intensely interested in voting. Another related reason is the plan to reach out to low intensity voters, with the Romney campaign having knocked on 2 million more doors already than they did in all of 2008. Some of the intensely interested voters are more against Obama than in favor of Romney, something Obama experienced in 2008 with the anti-Bush sentiment over the war in Iraq carrying over to support for the Democratic ticket. Another part of the undecided voter sentiment is that more of these voters compared to other voters are dissatisfied with the current condition of the economy and the direction the country is taking. Other reasons that could be cited are the volatile situation in the Middle East which could create questions in voter minds about American resolve in that region, dissatisfaction among some black voters with the deteriorating economic situation for black people, and the lack of intensity among Hispanic voters who feel the Obama administration did not keep its promises on immigration changes, the poor performance of the economy in industrial states of the midwest and east with decline in incomes....

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US president Biden proposes to reduce the US deficit by $2 trillion by increasing taxes on American households worth more than $100 million that would apply to their earned income, and their unrealized gains on liquid assets like stocks. Biden also plans quadrupling the tax on stock buybacks by companies, a tax approved in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2021. The deficit in 2023 will be about $1.4 trillion and rise to about $2 trillion, so that Biden's plan is to practically eliminate the  large deficit if the Republicans come on board. Republicans prefer cuts in spending. US companies have engaged in a dramatic increase in stock buybacks in recent years leading to calls for increasing the tax on stock buybacks. Biden says even high income households will not see an increase in their taxes, only the wealthiest households with over $100 million who have benefited vastly through the Reagan type policies of the last two decades. These households with over $100 million in assets will not be affected in the same way as students, workers, and middle income households are affected in shouldering a large part of the burden of these Reagan type policies that did not adequately fund education, healthcare, and manufacturing in communities across America. This was a period when Democrats in Congress awed by Reagan type policies failed to vigorously oppose policy that increased the US deficit and burden on households for health costs by not allowing Medicare to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies. A senior AARP official says that when we talk about the Biden Inflation Reduction Act of 2021 the key component is the Medicare price negotiation with companies that is now law. Why Republicans and Democrats before Mr. Biden allowed such a gross distortion for two decades since 2001 that burdened ordinary  working Americans while neglecting American manufacturing, till Mr. Biden assumed the presidency, says much about the policies of the last two decades and how it has affected ordinary working families. Shriveling factory towns and creating much distress in these communities with these distortions that are a legacy of Reagan type laissez faire policies that government should do little. The result of these policies is that manufacturing is concentrated in only one country for the whole supply chain something that would never have happened with a thoughtful policy planning process. India and Vietnam are only today seen as alternatives for the supply chain in 2023 when policies were in place in these countries since 2014 for the supply chain to be distributed in a way that would be a win-win situation for all countries, avoiding the national security threats of today with overconcentration of manufacturing in China. This has not benefited China or the US because of the rancor and tension it has created. It was the fall of the Berlin Wall that created some of this awe for Reagan, when looking at it objectively it was nothing more than a course correction in Europe after the Hungarian revolution suppressed in 1956, Czech in 1968. It had little to do with what policies the US should pursue for workers and families, just as the war in Ukraine today remains another course correction in a different direction in Europe, and does not affect domestic policy in the US to build a better society for workers and families that Mr. Biden is doing. ...

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This interview with Donald Trump by the publisher, editors and columnists of The Washington Post, Ryan Jr., Hiatt, Lane, Marcus, Diehl, Armai, Attiah, provides an exceptional insight into the views of Donald Trump on domestic and foreign policy, on his campaign for president. It is the result of an effort to get Trump to state his policies on different issues without the fuzziness in which Trump has carried out his campaign, often taking different sides of the same issue. In some situations Trump is pressed hard on his positions or controversial statements, to clarify what he has not clarified in the burst of media attention Trump received in the past 6 months, especially on television media. First some myths and realities. A recent March 19, 2016, issue of the Economist cites the Pew Trust in showing that only about 17% of eligible Republican voters voted in the primaries. A person watching television news media coverage on Fox News, CNN, or MSNBC, would get the impression that the voter turnout was tremendous- this is not confirmed by the Pew Trust survey. The Economist points out that had the other eligible voters cast their ballots and even if Trump had a share of these votes, the results might look different. With a highly fragmented vote in the Republican primaries, and about half of the vote going to candidates other than Trump, Trump's voter support would add up to about 8-9% of eligible Republican voters based on the Pew Survey results. The question here would be is this a representative sample of the U.S. or of the Republican Party. And is one likely to make false generalizations about the nature of the Republican party from such a limited sample of voter opinion. Is voter sentiment inadequately reflected, and results hopelessly skewed because of the lack of good candidates in the Republican Party, and Trump's tactical rhetoric appealing to a group of working class Americans left out in the technological progress of the last decade. In the process is the hard work of the founders of the Republic, Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison and the framers of the Constitution being undone by a minority of disaffected voters with legitimate grievances on distribution of economic benefits of the technological progress, trade and global manufacturing networks- with a level of divisive rhetoric and decline in levels of public debate rarely seen. These are the clarifications sought from Trump and his response. Attiah raises the question of divisive rhetoric on minorities Hispanics and Black people- Trump says he is only talking about people here illegally, that he gets support from Hispanics here legally. He turns the question to Muslims and says there is a serious problem there that means being careful about how people are being admitted into the U.S. Questions about Trump's controversial statements about a wall with Mexico are not raised. Ryan pushes hard on the question of the libel laws standard that Trump says he is going to change, asking whether this would happen if Trump thinks the reporting "is wrong" but there is no malice. Trump wants the reporting to be fair for him, that reporters call him to check if he did this or that and why, before writing stuff about him, and he sees the reporting from the Post as very bad about him. He says his lawyers would have to tell the media, that he believes he should loosen up the standards so that this kind of coverage does not continue. On ISIS Trump pulls back when asked by Diehl about statements that suggested he would send the number of troops the generals wanted on the ground- estimated at 20,000 to 30,000- saying he would find it very, very, difficult to do that. On a nuclear option for ISIS Trump says he does not favor that. Suggesting that Trump like the other candidates in the election know there are no easy ways to tackle ISIS. Trump would rely on other countries in the region for help with troops on the ground, something that president Obama also favors, with limited results. Diehl also pushes hard on NATO- Trump says hundreds of billions of dollars are going to NATO and the whole burden for defending South Korea falls on the U.S. when it is not now a rich country that it once was. Diehl corrects him by saying for the public record that its not hundreds of billions, and South Korea, Japan pay 50% of the cost for defending their region. Trump wants to see 100% for the Korean peninsula defense borne by the South Koreans and Japan. Trump seees NATO as a good concept but needing more help from Germany, Poland, Baltics. At one point the Washington Post journalists tell Trump this is a position he shares with president Obama. Trump responds to questions from Hiatt about how he would handle the situations in black communities such as Ferguson, Missouri, and Baltimore, Maryland. Trump says he feels law enforcement is important and should play a big role in preventing the destruction of property from day one. He says jobs are what hurts inner cities but offers no solution about how to get the jobs lost in the steel industry for Baltimore, black neighborhoods sitting ironically next to the John Hopkins high technology university complex. Trump brings up the response that jobs could be created if the U.S. simply did not spend money on supporting nationbuilding overseas, a policy that president Obama has supported, and which the public has favored in the U.S. As Holman Jenkins brings up in a column on March 22, 2016 in the Wall Street Journal, these policies are being pursued today, and most of these jobs are not coming back so how would Trump bring them back or do anything about it, especially when Chinese workers in China's factories are being displaced by robotics in places such as Hon Hai factories. The more one thinks about it many of things Trump is saying are already being done, and there are no new solutions Mr. Trump has for today's problems of lack of upward mobility for the middle and working class- a priority for Sanders and Clinton also, not just for Trump. As a television personality and a candidate with a understanding of voter concerns, Trump artfully voices voter concerns of working class Americans for problems that defy easy solutions. Are there risks with Trump's approach that Trump has failed to think through or grasp? Does the unpredictable behaviour Trump suggests that would get allies thinking and trade partners responding lead to unpredictable consequences? Divisive rhetoric creates additional distractions in tackling the problems of the middle class and working class Americans. Divisive rhetoric within the NATO alliance would create additional distractions in tackling the problems of defending the European Union, such as using the very show of unpredictability. Diehl pushes Trump on this question. Would trade threats to China lead to a withdrawal from the Senkaku Islands by China? Trump says he thinks this would cause the Chinese to retreat . What if the Chinese see it differently, in their relations with Japan and South Korea, with a long difficult history, not necessarily in their relations with the U.S. Would a trade war hurt the global economy, and hurt confidence in U.S. fianncial markets just when the U.S. and European economies are staging a recovery, and when the economes of China, Japan and India are in a sensitive phase? These questions could not be raised because of time constraints, but must be on the minds of the editors of the Post and the WSJ, coming from different ends of the political spectrum. How would this help tackle the problem of upward mobility for working class Americans that all the candidates in the presidential election share? ...

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Heathrow was built haphazardly as traffic increased since its opening in 1946, with a capacity to handle 45 million passengers at its 4 terminals it was congested and handled 68 million annually. The building of Terminal 5 will ease congestion and increase capacity by 45% making a big difference for British Airways which will operate out of T5 and a big difference in baggage handling ( a million bags weren't ready for passengers at destination in 2006), in the lounges and lounge environments for waiting passengers 2500 at a time) ., and after an annex is built by 2010 passengers will not have to be taken by bus to waiting planes. other airports like Schipol with 4 runways compared to Heathrow's 2 and built with a better layout and plan, and airports in Asia of Singapore Airlines and in the Middle East at Doha are upgrading so BA will only be doing what places are doing. Because the terminal hangups have been costly for British Airways leading to a shrinking of about 20% of its flight network, as it concentrated more on upscale customers, and lost passengers to more efficient airlines., ithe cost will likely be paid off quickly for BA. Demand. is so high at Heathrow that a pair of takeoff and landing spots can cost as much as $50 million and would be going up as Star Alliance and Skyteam member airlines move ito BA's old facilities. Considering the losses from th inefficient setup at the old terminal BA's estimate that T5 savings would cover its cost of 330 million pounds ($660 million) to equip the new building in in the next 10 years may even be understated. Of this 62 million pounds was spent on the new lounges. BA leases the T5 Terminal from Heathrow's BAA owned by Spain's Ferrovial SA, which spent $4.3 billion to build T5. ...

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This personal portraiture of Sarkozy reflects Sarkozy as a man, but it says little about some changes he brought, which could be regarded as his singular achievements. One is his courage in discontinuing old colonial policy in Africa and the Middle East. Sarkozy took the initiative in Libya and Tunisia, and Libya owes much to Sarkozy. Sarkozy also worked to build closer European ties, something he came under much criticism, such as his ties to chancellor Merkel. Pictures of Sarkozy and Merkel on the beach in Deauville, France, come to mind. This is a path Hollande is also likely to take, except that he would bring to bear the French viewpoint, which is a good thing. It would still benefit from the idea that Sarkozy gave the German viewpoint a good hearing before it was fairly rejected in France on its merits and economic good sense.

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Karen Eliott House was a former publisher of the WSJ. Now with WSJ in Murdoch's News Corporation's hands, she is a fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center. Here she points to the diverging situation between the USA and Saudi Arabia. She thinks the US cannot protect the Saudi monarchy (which dates back to Abdul Aziz and his support from President Roosevelt first by recognition of the new state of Saudi Arabia in 1932 and support during the war), from its domestic challenges. One of these domestic challenges is changing demographics as the young or people below 15 years age make up 40% of the population, rising unemployment, and pressures for modernization which the monarchy has done little to respond to, and the lack of democratic forms which would give people a chance to vent their feelings. For the U.S. the frustration is that the Saudis have done little or can do little for the USA in the way of moderating oil prices as they move still higher, because of speculative trends, decline of production in its own maturing oil fields, and needs to finance huge new plants and cities to provide employment to a growing population. In fact Libyan oil officials has been more of a moderating influence recently than the Saudi oil officials. So it appears that what Karen is saying is that the Saudis are pursuing their own interests in their region and the wider region that includes South Asia and Northern Africa, and the US is pursuing its own interests, which at this time are not as clearly defined, except securing oil supplies and protecting Israel. The 2 countries USA and Saudi Arabia are going their diverging and different ways in a way that is irreversible....

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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...

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How the Lebanon war may have weakened U.S. -Middle East relations.

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The election of Ekrem Imamoglu helps to keep Turkish democracy alive by offering voters an alternative to AKP PArty and Mr. Erdogan. Unlike other politicians from the CHP opposition Party, Mr. Imamoglu was able to reach out to mainstream voters in Istanbul, a city of 16 million, where Mr. Erdogan began his effort to offer an alternative in the Turkish politics of the time dominated by the military and the CHP. Imamoglu reaches out to pious AKP voters and to working class voters in a way that other CHP politicians have not. Imamoglu says " Lots of AKP voters asked me why I wasn't running for their party instead. They were pleased when I asked for their prayers rather than their votes. I don't believe the public accepts divisive rhetoric and discriminatory policies." About the populist sentiment that Erdogan aroused in Turkey during the last decade to provide more inclusive atmosphere, Imamoglu says- "Populism has the upper hand in the world at the moment but it will end eventually. Treating people with respect always wins out." Imamoglu's family is in the construction business and he entered politics in an effort to reduce the red tape facing business, and became mayor of the middle class district of Beylikduzu district in the 2014 elections. ...

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Lt. General Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, the new defense minister appointed by President Morsi in Egypt, has close ties with U.S. officials. His ties to the U.S. go back to the basic infantry training course he took at Fort Benning, Georgia, in 1981. This marks a shift to a younger generation in the military from the aging military leaders of the Mubarak period, and was achieved by consensus so that the military could continue to maintain its privileges and the elected President Morsi could assume control of running the country. This was peceded by the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta to Cairo, in which he mediated between the different factions to ensure a peaceful and normal transition to democratically elected leaders. It also comes as the U.S. and European allies and Sunni nations in the Middle East are focussing their attention on Iran and the civil war in Syria. For the military in Egypt the situation in Syria could be one more reason to arrive at a rapprochement with the elected civilian government, and Secretary Panetta is likely to have pointed this out to Gen. Tantawi and leaders in the SCAF military body. It shows the considerable diplomatic and leadership skills of Secretary Panetta in helping to bring all sides together on a mutually agreed arrangement. The initiative was left to President Morsi because it was important that this be seen as a return to normal democratic processes by an elected president....

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This New Yorker has resilence in his roots in the Scottish Hebrides islands. No wonder he was able to take up the challenge of a US unable to extricate itself from  wars in the Middle East (Reagan, Bushes, Obama), and unfair trade with China, and an onslaught of unfavorable media attention. His name is DJT. According to the BBC in this story on Donald Trump's mother Mary Ann Mcleod, she was a regular churchgoer, well respected in the community, who visited her homeland in Scottish isle of Lewis, British Hebrides, frequently. Mary Ann McLeod is the youngest of 10 children of a Scottish family in the town of Tong in the Hebridean isle of Lewis in the North Sea, northwest of the Scotland mainland. Her father ran the local post office. The family was  relatively poor coming from Scottish people cleared of Highlanders during the Clearances and with fishing disasters in the family. Two hundred servicemen returning from the first world war to Tong lost their lives in a shipping disaster and the economy of the island was in poor shape. With no opportunities or future many immigrated to Canada. Mary Ann's sister Catherine immigrated to Canada and on a visit to Tong she took Mary back with her to New York in 1930. Mary worked as a nanny for a wealthy family in New York before meeting a socialite of German immigrants Fred Trump. Mary returned to Scotland in 1934 and by then she found a new life with Fred Trump whom she married. The couple lived in a wealthy area of Queens and Fred Trump ran a real estate business he had inherited with his mother. Donald Trump still has three cousins in Tong in the British Hebrides Scottish isles. His older sister Maryanne Trump Barry regularly visited Tong. Donald Trump visited Tong in 2008. Of this family a local who knows the cousins and the family John MacIver, a local councillor and friend of the cousins told BBC in 2017- "They are very nice, gentle people and I'm sure they don't want all the publicity that's around. I quite understand that they don't want to talk about it."   ...

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India's Russian oil imports Indian OMC's (oil marketing companies) say Russian discount for oil was about $8.50 per barrel in FY24, and dropped to $3-5 in 2025 with at present in August 2025 it being $1. CLSA/Citic Securities research report uses an average of $4 per barrel to get the $2.5 billion gain for India per year in 2025. Note that Russian oil is of inferior quality and the CIF landing cost used by Indian companies is much higher because of long supply routes insurance costs compared to Saudi oil. India could shift to buying from Saudis and UAE in 2026, and reports suggest India is already making this shift as Jamnagar and other refineries in India shift to non Russian sources. India's gains from Russian oil imports estimated at $2.5 billion lower than the $10-25 billion figures says a CLSA/Citic Securities research report. In 2025 Indian oil imports are at present 36% or 1.8 million barrels a day from Russia of 5.4 mbd total oil imports. Saudis provide 14%, Iraq 20%, UAE 9%, USA 4%. One alternative for India would be to shift much of it's oil imports to the Saudis, UAE and US to shift to the situation before the Ukraine war and Russian discounts for it's large population.   ...

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This report in the NYT shows that some of the people who identified themselves as Republican in 2016 may not do so in 2017, as the Trump administration makes policy moves that are unpopular with sections of society that were earlier open to his new ideas. Gallup supports studies at Emory University showing a 4% shift, a 4% decline in identification with the GOP Republican label. After a eight years under a Democratic administration some fatigue set in and this was reflected in the election. Now that Republicans are in power in states and the federal level, they face a critical public spotlight on how their actions match the interests of their constituents. A similar process was seen in Britain, after the seeming support for Brexit in 2016. By 2017 some of that support shifted and some new energy on the side of Labor among young people made a difference in the last election with losses for the ruling Conservatives who supported Brexit. Normally this process takes time. Yet this time because ideas such as Brexit or withdrawal from the Paris climate change agreement, or the investigation into Russia and the U.S. election, are so drastic in their impact that the pendulum seems to correct itself by swinging to the middle. ...