LyrArc Article Gist
Saudi Arabia's strategic moves at the OPE pricing meeting in Nov. 2014. Saudis push for keeping the production levels as they are, not making any cuts. Analysts say the Saudis are aware other OPEC countries and other producers outside OPEC such as Russia, are not likely to make cuts in production as they face severe budget constraints- especially Venezuela, Iran, Russia. In this situation they have decided to take a wait and see approach to see where prices are headed in coming months. A price of $60 for Brent crude is likely to lead to cuts, according to some analysts.

LyrArc Article Gist
Saudi price cut in November 2014 to reverse market share decline in the U.S. The Saudi share of total U.S. oil consumption declined to 4.6% in August 2014 from 7% in August 2013, according to EIA. This brought NYMEX price to below $80 in early Nov. 2014.

LyrArc Article Gist
Trofimov provides a much needed perspective to the situation in the Middle East in 2015. The title about redrawing borders on ethnic lines is misleading, as the essay's conclusions point to the need for various communities to find a way to live together without ethnic cleansing and intolerance in attitudes. With modernization different communities, Sunni and Shiite, already live together in the larger cities in the Middle East. Trofimov points out that the original intentions of U.S. president Woodrow Wilson were for diversity, and building modern institutions of government as the best way forward. This was not carried out by British and French rulers following struggles for independence against the colonial authorites. Following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, Britain and France were the dominant powers, and the boundaries were drawn up for Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and other states, under the British-French Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Britain and France increased the role of minority groups to maintain their control following independence struggles in Iraq and Syria, a situation which helped Alawites gain control in Syria and Sunnis in Iraq. Shiite rule in todays Iraq has not lessened tensions, and intolerance only creates tensions in the broader region. Which makes redrawing boundaries around ethnic lines in a defacto acceptance of the current situation, not the lasting road to peace in the Middle East. In Iran, Russia with Britain was involved in the partition of parts of Iran into three zones, a Russian zone including Isfahan in the north, a British zone in the south east and a neutral zone in the middle. This happened in 1907 soon after a independence movement helped write a constitution in the 1901-1907 period, showing that many foreign powers were involved in the region, not just Britain and France. The discovery of oil in 1908 by a British company created the question of how to distribute the profits, which led to 70 years of disagreement and tensions in Iran. The resulting tensions exacerbated the conflict between religious authorites and Mossadegh in the early fifties with the fear of Communism, and exacerbated the conflict between the religious authorites and the government under the Shah by 1979 with misuse of oil wealth, ending with his overthrow and the supreme authority of the Ayatollah. Oil has proved to be as divisive, and wasteful of development opportunities, in Iran as it has been in Nigeria and other oil dependent nations. Multiple issues exist in the Middle East, not just the artificial redrawing of boundaries by the French and British, which makes the defacto redrawing of boundaries along ethnic divisions, not the answer but another step with its own dangers, along the path towards peace and economic development in the region. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Changing bank loan payments from 36 to 72 or 82 payments and bank's confidence to make new credit available at interest rates of abot 12% has created a boom in auto sales with 2.46 million cars sold in 2007, according to the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, and car factories operating at near or full capacity. GM showed improved results last quarter largely on the basis of its Brazilian operations profits. Inflation at yearend 2007 was 4.5% and Brazil is experiencing a boom based on its commodity exports of iron ore, and other commodities. Foreign investment doubled last year to $34.6 billion, much of it going into the stock market, and the Brazilian currency is strong. And the Lula administration has also put money int he hand os the poor in Brazil so that the boom is more equally shared. The increase in availability of credit is in high double digits for everything from cars, and homes to consumer items like washing machines and televisions, because its starting from a low base as is true of most of Latin America where because of high inflation and interest rates banks were reluctant to lend and borrowers could not afford the high interest rates. Now home mortgages are available for 12% and car loans for 14%, still high but much better by Brazilian standards with extended payment terms. About 20 million more people are able to buy on credit with this new availability of credit according to Mr. Ferreira, President of the National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions. If interest rates drop further this boom will get new momentum as even more people will be attracted to buying on credit. The volume of outstanding credit in Brazil in February was 35% of GDP, the is compares to eurozone numbers of 116% for domestic credit to the private sector according to the World Bank figures for 2006, and 201% in the USA and 419% in Japan. Mr. Ferreira predicts that the proportion of personal debt to GDP would rise from 38% to 40% this year and increase by 3% each year to 2013....

LyrArc Article Gist
To correct misgivings in many quarters about Syrian refugees not finding a haven in Gulf states, this letter from the Cato Institute points out that the population of Syrian refugees living in the Gulf states including Saudi Arabia has gone up by 1.1 million by 2013 from the beginning of the civil war. He cites World Bank data showing 241,000 Syrians living in the Gulf states before the civil war. By 2013 that number is 1.4 million. For Saudi Arabia the figures are up from 111,000 to 1 million.

LyrArc Article Gist
Said, Kent and Faucon describe the meetings and maneouvring between oil producers that led to the decision to not cut production at the November 2014 OPEC meetings in Vienna. This led to a drop in Brent crude down to below $70 by Dec. 2014, with Russia, Iran and Venezuela losing, countries such as India, and motorists benefitting from lower oil prices.

LyrArc Article Gist
In this WSJ op-ed, Michael Oren, Israel's former ambassador to the U.S. 2009-2013, describes the difficult moments in the Israel- U.S. relationship during the 7 years of the Obama administration. He says prime minister Netayahu made mistakes, but president Obama acted deliberately against Israel's interests. Oren says two core principles of the Israel-U.S. relationship, that of "no daylight" or no open disagreements, and "no surprises," were broken during the two terms of the Obama administration. One such moment says Oren was in May 2011, when Obama endorsed the 1967 lines with land swaps- a former Palestinian position- as basis for peace-making. M. Netanyahu was seen as lecturing the U.S. president about this the next day, according to Oren, because he was assured by the Israeli ambassador that this was not going to happen and it came as a surprise to Netanyahu.

LyrArc Article Gist
Leonhardt points out in the NYT that Hillary Clinton actually won in the popular vote by a substantial margin, by more than 2 million votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. He says that Democrats need to pay more attention to the working class in midwestern states- the job losses, crumbling infrastructure, and the plight of communities such as Detroit, Michigan which suffered through the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM, and again with the foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis of the City of Detroit. With a similar situation in the neighboring states of Wisconsin and Ohio, in places like Toledo and other parts of communities facing industrial decline. While the Silicon Valley centred region powered the economy in California, and the financial industry and real estate powered New York, older midwestern communities never really recovered from a long decline stretching over 2 decades. The result was the loss of faith in Democrats among union workers and young people, leading to the loss of Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan. For most of its history the Democratic Party was based on its union and working class base including a large number of white voters. Only under Obama because of his unique candidacy was the coalition so dependent on the minorities vote. Before minorities were part of the Democratic coalition, but not in the way under the Obama candidacy. A return to its historic and normal base among whites in unions and working class communities, liberals, minorities, is a way to go back to the historic and natural base of Democratic support. In a sense dependence on tech communities for election funding and the tech booms, globalization, may have distorted Democrats sense of their historic role as champions of the working class and middle class communities throughout the country. There is now an opportunity to restore this lost mission of protecting the interests of the middle and working class who have seen huge drop in net worth as reported by Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve at the Inequality Conference on October 17, 2014-"62 million households with a net worth of $11,000 for the year 2013." Poorly covered in the media and not made the utmost priority by Democrats (or Republicans). In the words of Janet Yellen, this was in the past several decades "the most sustained rise in inequality since the 19th century after more than 40 years of narrowing inequality since the Great Depression." She added the shocking words "by some estimates, income and wealth inequality near their highest levels in the past hundred years, and probably much higher than much of American history before then." Even discussion in the media goes back to the Obama coalition and treats it as a way forward for Democrats, when history shows it was different and the situation described by Yellen calls for a serious response. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ points to Bernie Sanders 15% lead over Donald Trump in a Jan. 2016 WSJ/NBC poll- with Hillary Clinton having a 10 point lead- as proof that Sanders should be taken seriously. It says that electability of Sanders is no longer an issue, especially because the 2016 election is coming up with many surprises, including a changed election environment. Other possibilities raised in the editorial- the possibility that an independent like Bloomberg might run if Trump is nominated, further increasing the chance for Sanders to be elected president. By splitting the Republican party a Trump or Cruz nomination could also put the House in jeopardy for the Republicans, removing the House as a check if a Democrat is elected president.

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ says Reagan negotiated with the Soviets from a position of strength, while president Obama has made concession after concession till the Ayatollah could not turn down a deal. It says Iran is run by the Revolutionary Guards and the Ayatollah, who see the deal offered by Obama in their interests, and that the deal took place because of this, not because of the willingness of the Rouhani government to negotiate. It says even the relatively small sanctions against specific individuals and companies have been held back by the Obama administration because of an election in Iran.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mark Landler describes the situation on the Syria-Turkey border and Turkey's position. On the same day U.S. Senate leaders McCain and Graham pointed to the contradictions in U.S. president Obama's policies in Syria and Iraq leading to the serious problems in the Middle East. Turkey says the U.S. needs to resolve the contradictions before it can actively commit its forces especially asking the U.S. to establish a no-fly zone in Syria.

LyrArc Article Gist
The size of the stimulus package announced at 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) involves only 1 trillion yuan in new spending according to analysts, the larger number was announced to bolster consumer and company sentiment. Export order are falling quickly from 27% increase in 2007 over 2006, to 21% increase in Sept 2008, to 19% increase in October 2008. over same month prior year. But imports are falling more quickly which is not good news for European exporters like Germany and for American exporters except for infrastructure exporters, and for commodities exporters like Brazil, Australia and Canada. In October imports slowed from 21% in September to 15% in October, which actually increased China's trade surplus from $29 billion in September to $35 billion in October. Exports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil are down and machinery from Germany. For China's urban middle class and rural poor the one relief is in inflation for fuel and food, the consumer price index rose 4% in October compared to 4.6% in September and down from a peak of 8.7% in February 2008. The spending will come in infrastructure including railways. Railways construction spending will be increased from 300 billion yuan in 2008 to 350 billion yuan and double to 600 billion yuan in 2009. This is expected to create 80,000 new jobs to replace jobs lost in the toys and furniture export sectors and other job losses. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Roland Arnall who sold his Long Beach Mortgage Company to Washinton Mutual which became WaMu's subprime arm, and ran his own mortgage company Ameriquest. He helped start the whole subprime business when in the early 1990's his company Long Beach Savings and Loan began selling subprime mortgages to financial instituions on Wall Street, where the mortgages were packaged into securities and sold to investors. This packging of securites backed by mortgages and later the shopping for ratings which enabled these securites to get the the AAA rated seal of approval was to get this business the financing and backing on Wall Street. Ameriquest was invoved in questionable practices in its lending. His company and its 270 offices closed in 2006 and $325 million was put up by his holding company ACC Capital Holdings to settle regulators claims of charging excessively high mortgage rates. His origins are with a family that survived the Holocaust by taking refuge in a Catholic church and he became an altar boy, and later immigrating to the Los Angeles area. He was diagnosed with late stage cancer in March 2007 and died the same month. This is one of the individuals who pioneered the whole business of packaging subprime mortgages as securities. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Helene Cooper and Worth point to the vacillating response to the Arab Spring and movement for democracy and freedom in the Middle East of the Obama administration and President Obama. The dangerous overtones of this lack of U.S. leadership in the region as the U.S. completes a withdrawal from Iraq without an agreement for a residual presence, sees diplomacy reaching an impasse with Iran's development of nuclear weapons, and the Syrian civil war drawing in Turkey with its long border with Syria, and drawing in Saudi Arabia as a defendor of Sunnis in Syria. The stakes for Russia in Syria were minimal compared to that of people in the Middle East and the U.S., yet it had an outsized influence with its early military assistance to the Assad regime and the lack of U.S. leadership to resolve the situation in Syria in favor of the democracy movement.

LyrArc Article Gist
Khalid al-Falih, chairman of Saudi Aramco, says at the World Economic Forum in Davos, on Jan. 26, 2016- "If prices continue to be low, we will be able to withstand it for a long, long time." With $630 billion in foreign currency reserves the Saudis are following a long term policy of full production. Gasoline subsidies are being reduced, IPO of Saudi Aramco being discussed to raise additional capital, and other steps being taken to plan for long term oil prices. Flexibility for a change in policy is diminished with the addition of Iranian oil production to supplies following the lifting of sanctions. The events in 2015-2016 of Russian bombing campaign in Syria, and the cutoff of diplomatic relations with Iran, have worsened the standoff with Iran and Russia in the Middle East conflict. As a result it appears that the Saudis are settling down for a long term policy of full production which would keep oil prices low for the long term. India, Japan, China, the U.S. and the European Union, Turkey and other countries benefit from low oil prices when their economies need a boost in 2016-2017....