LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ looks at the war in Ukraine in July 2022 as seen from the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has 12 million people displaced or refugees, about a third of the population, particularly in the east. Most of the refugees are women and children. Cities in the east and the south face artillery attacks and airspace over Ukraine lacks the air defense systems that would help Ukrainians live lives not constantly under threat of bombs going off. In this situation and with the massive damage, there is also a breakdown of trust on both sides. Not just the leadership but 93% of the population is against negotiating a peace till the territories lost in the south and the east are regained, says this WSJ report. This report shows Zelensky describing his typical day, his yearning for peace, but serious fears after the failure of the 2014 peace agreements with Russia that Russia is simply negotiating agreements so that it can consolidate its control over territory till it launches another attack. This means that the war will go into a counter offensive phase in the south where Ukraine has its economic links on the Black Sea around the port of Odessa. Ukraine will want to recover the territories in the south so that its future on the Black Sea is restored to what it was before. The eastern part of Ukraine in the Donbas region is being integrated into Russia and Ukraine may seek to improve its position in that area around major cities that it controls and controlled till losses in June.  The lack of air defense systems over Ukrainian airspace that would protect civilians and people of Ukraine in the countryside and cities is what hurts Ukrainians the most. It is the reason why there are so many refugees and displaced people. The US and European countries have failed to provide the air defense systems that would have protected the civilian population and created the worst aspects of this war in the number of refugees having to flee their homes and seeing them destroyed. Years from now people may look back and say this is the worst aspect of this war apart from the claims of either side. As Lincoln said during the civil war in the US in his annual message of 1862 the land is there for ever, and this generation will pass away. The conflicts and tearing apart that this generation of Russians and Ukrainians have experienced, may not be the feelings of future generations.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

LyrArc Article Gist
Stalling coal production creates a crisis in India. The power industry is increasingly relying on imported coal.

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT tariffs are selective and reciprocality makes them fair. This also cushions the impact on consumers and countries. Countries who have blatantly unfair tariffs for decades can then decide as in EU, China, India, Japan, S. Korea, Mexico and Canada, can decide how they will respond by looking at what they need to do for fair trade. Some tariffs are intended also as domestic policy for failure to control of fentanyl into the US as with CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China. US producers will make goods sourced from these countries at home and as DJT says about autos from Mexico this will lead to American producers in Detroit picking up production and bringing manufacturing back home to USA. Most goods Americans use were made in the US in the postwar period from 1950-1980, American manufacturing will get the boost it so badly needs after unfair trade practices from other countries in the EU, Japan, Taiwan and China. By April this policy will be in place, by June in 6 months the policies will be fully operational at entry ports in the US including Los Angeles and Long Beach. All tariffs are selective, carefully evaluated for individual countries and products and regions based on reciprocality a principle that is fair to all countries and the principle on which the world trading system is founded. Individual companies and industries that gain this or that benefit may present it differently saying is good or bad based on their interest and profits- for the US and American people the principle of reciprocality provides a yardstick that is both fair and in the long term interest of bringing jobs and higher wages to the US. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Junichiro Koizumi's decision to support his son for the seat he held in Yokosuka, a naval port an hour from Tokyo. Fackler points out an astounding fact about second generation and third generation leaders in Japanese politics that make it an insider's terrritory. Second generation politicians in parliament make up an unusually large part of the legislature. About 40% of LDP party members of parliament are descendents of prior lawmakers. Of 7 prime ministers, only one was not a son or grandson of a former lawmaker. Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda were grandson and son of former prime ministers. Even the Democratic Party of Japan has its share of second generation members of parliament of about 20%. In this fascinating account of Japanese politics Fackler talks to Mr. Yokokume, a DPJ candidate running against the younger Koizumi, at his campaign offices. With a small fraction of the financing received by the younger Koizumi and voters at the train station telling him this is Koizumi country, Yokokume is worried that politics is for too long closed to outsiders in Japanese politics. Public opinion in Japan describes this in negative terms as depriving Japan of the fresh blood and new ideas from newcomers to politics to renew Japanese government....

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ's Amol Sharma's interview with India's Gujarat state chief minister, Narendra Modi, in August 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Former German chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign minister Steinmeier are singled out for their policies that likely emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine. The DW.com says Merkel's tenure now shows deep seated flaws in leadership with her policies with Russia having gone too far in the other direction and leaving Europe in a vulnerable position. Merkel saw herself as continuing old policies from the period of SPD chancellor Willy Brandt of engaging with Russia, then called the Soviet Union. Yet looking at it closely the policy of Brandt was to reach accomodation with the eastern half of Germany, called the GDR, not to weaken Germany's position. By distancing herself from the US Merkel was in sense out on her own. Consider says DW.com that in 2014 Germany imported 36% of its gas from Moscow, by 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine it was 55%. The SPD under Gerhard Schroeder and Steinmeier following Schroeder share responsibility with Merkel for this dependence.    A similar integration of the German economy with China's economy happened under the 4 term administration of Angela Merkel. This can be seen in the port of Hamburg. This may have similarly emboldened China in its relations with neighbors in the Indo-Pacific region and with Taiwan. German chancellor Scholz is by one report reading Cambridge historian Brendan Simms- "Europe The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." This historical account of the relations of major European states in the 5 centuries before the present period shows the Balance of Power as critical to the liberty and freedom that Britain and Netherlands as well as other countries were able to keep. Sweden was attacked in 1700 with sign of weakness, Britain faced challenges from France in 1700 and in 1800, and allied with the Hapsburgs and German states to maintain its democracy and way of life. Merkel of CSU and Steinmeier of SPD may have failed to realize this when they ignored the history of Europe. The WSJ report on the miscalculations on the German and French side with Sarkozy, Hollande and Macron show that all these leaders failed to grasp that by leaving the issue unsettled of Ukraine's NATO admission they had created the situation that was bad for both Russia and for Ukraine, creating seeds for serious differences that could lead to future conflict and war. By not respecting and giving room to the lessons of history these leaders in Western Europe have created the conditions for the very opposite of what they intended to do.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ's Amol Sharma's interview with India's Gujarat state chief minister, Narendra Modi.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ reporters Corkery and Yoon give a remarkable account of the individual homeowners and investors inside one toxic subprime mortgage security from Countrywide Financial Corp. named CWABS- 2006-2007. There is Amanda Gavini of Fort Myers who continued making mortgage payments against the odds after a illness and death in the family. And a couple Donald Mudd- Patricia Starr who were approved by Countrywide for a $171,000 adjustable rate mortgage loan at 8% with a $10,000 down payment for a home in Port Charlotte, Florida. The approval came only 3 months after the couple emerged from personal bankruptcy in 2006, and by 2009 Mudd was missing payments. Other borrowers such as Mrs. Gavini in Florida took out two loans at 7% and 11% in 2006, have continued making payments and are still unable to refinance under the HAMP or HARP government programs. It is because of these homeowners who continue to make payments helping the security price recover, that one of PIMCO's funds which owns a stake in this security has made good returns. Hedge fund Marathon Asset has also made good returns on this security because of the U.S. government's Public Private Investment Program to help banks recover by providing government incentives for purchase of these securities from banks. This was a way to get banks holding these subprime securities to resume normal lending in financial markets....

LyrArc Article Gist
Prices of gasoline for automobiles is in the range of 8 dollars a gallon. In France its about 1.40 euros a liter or about $8.20 a gallon. In Spain gasoline costs 1 to 1.25 euros a liter. The cost of a liter of gasoline is up 17% in the UK, 15% in Austria and 8% in France and 7% in Russia, compared to 12 months prior. So are Europeans used to paying higher taxes on gasoline and higher prices for gasoline complaining. Forthe first time gasoline prices are becoming a serious issue in Europe. And there have been strikes across Europe by truckers, fishermen, port workers, farmers and others asking for tax rebates or tax reduction. While Sarkozy in France called for the EU to cap fuel taxes, Gordon Brown of the UK is not in favor of this idea. Many European countries depend on gasoline taxes to support their budgets. European Commission's position is that artificially lowering prices would not help energy conservation and efficient use and is supported by consumer groups. The European Commission said last week that short term relief should be focussed on the poorest families. On the other side the German Federation of Consumer organizations is lobbying the government to spend 5 billion euros in public transportation and 10 billion euros in subsidies to households that install energy saving devices. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
California's economy is going through tough times during the coronavirus. Unemployment is up to over 20% which compares to 14.7% for the U.S., closer to that of New York. The state depends on the tourism industry, agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley, and entertainment industry around Los Angeles for jobs. Tech in the San Jose area does not account for as many jobs. The state also has a public university system and foreign students mostly from China bringing in $7 billion.   Its port system around Long Beach and Los Angeles connects with the Asian economies and China, for goods mainly transported to the rest of the U.S.  All these sectors are the ones most badly hit during the coronavirus.  California now has a deficit of $54 billion and was the first state to borrow from the federal government to pay $13 billion in unemployment claims. Undocumented Californians are not able to collect unemployment because of their immigration status, creating an American version of the informal economy that is found in India and Italy or Spain. California has 83 million people taking plane trips to the state for a tourism industry that normally brings in $145 billion. 600,000 travel industry jobs were lost in the state. Taxes related to travel are a significant source of revenue for cities in California bringing in $12 billion. The only sector that is less affected is the tech industry, yet this makes up only about 10% of the jobs or 1.7 million higher paid but fewer jobs. This tech sector at about just 15% of the California economy GDP, is of a precarious nature with a boom bust pattern, the last boom one that happened since the 2009 financial crisis. It in no way forms a significant support for employment or income for people in California or the U.S., and may even be responsible for distortions in the allocation of capital away from infrastructure and public services, through its disproportionate influence on how the nation's capital is allocated. The broader changes underway during coronavirus are likely to affect the state over many years, as supply chains shift away from China, and as infrastructure and public services investment assume their rightful role again in the nation rebuilding effort, agriculture and rural America become a part of the American renewal story.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Chevron's difficulties getting Russia to agree to proposed expansion of Caspian Pipeline Consortium's pipeline from Kazakhstan to Black sea port. Russia wants better terms and more revenue from the pipeline. Chevron's wants to boost output from Tengiz to 550,000 barrels a day by end of 2008 and needs pipeline expansion to transport the oil.

LyrArc Article Gist
The thinking is that a slight drop in the year to year increase in GDP from 11.4% to 10%, according to both IMF and Goldman Sachs group forecasts, isn't going to do much in reducing China's demand growth for oil. For one thing China's industry is very energy intensive and consumes a lot of energy to produce a give amount of output. Its estimated that it takes about 1% of increase in energy demand to produce 1% rise in GDP. It ranks as the largest consumer of coal and the second largest user of oil. It takes in about 8 million barrels a day of the 84 million barrels a day, that is 9.52%. Even as China's export sector slows down because of lower demand from the industrialized countries, the Chinese government can use its large cash reserves to build roads and bridges and ports and upgrade infrastructure to maintain employment levels. Major refiners margins have swung wildly from $30 in May 2007 from $10 in the last few years. Before the recent boom in refinery margins the margins average $5, and it looks like the boom in refinery building in Saudi Arabia, India and China and the US that resulted from shortage of refinery capacity, will bring margins back to their longterm average. A surge in oil prices that has outpaced the rise in prices of gasoline and refined products is shrinking margins and lowering profits and stock price of refiners like Tesoro and Valero. and upgrade its infrastructure ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Here are 11 big infrastructure projects that are planned across the country. They are part of the $2.2 trillion of projects to build or repair infrastructure, that is estimated by the American Society of Civil Engineers as needed by America today. But there is only $100 billion for infrastructure spending in the Stimulus Plan, and much of this will go to keeping existing infrastructure, a dilapidated bridge here or road there in repair. Only $50 billion is available for transportation projects. The rapid transit planned for California with trains twice as fast as Acela for a 800 mile track is estimated at $45 billion, but there is only $11 billion in the Stimulus for mass transit aand cities like Washington DC for Dulles airport with its need for a airport train, and other mass transit projects around the country wil compete for the same money. As a result most will go unfunded. The Second Avenue Subway in New York at $4.35 billion, Miami Port Tunnel at $1 billion, Bridge to Canada from Detroit for $1.8 billion, Hudson Rail Tunnel for New York at $8.75 billion, Seattle Highway Tunnel at $4.24 billion, Gulf ports at New Orleans and Gulfport, Mississippi at $2.04 billion, tens of billions for new California aqueduct bypassing the delta around Sacramento to bring water from north to arid Southern part of California, NestGen Air Traffic Control for $15 billion to $22 billion, are the other projects on this list. Many of these are badly needed and have been waiting for years to get the necessary investment. This is only a partial list, and suggests that there are a lot of projects that can productively use government investment, so that wasteful spending does not occur. It appears that the projects are there because these areas were neglected for a long period, more like the situation faced during the post Thatcher period in the UK, where infrastructure and services had been neglected for so long that Labor governments could productively channel new investment in these areas to avoid wasteful spending. And it appears that the situation is very different from Japan where the Liberal Democratic Party had a vested interest in keeping its farm and rural base happy with new projects, like a bridge to nowhere, that led to wasteful spending for a decade or more, leading to rising deficits and investments that did not create productive returns in terms of economic growth. By contrast these projects have potential to generate productive returns for years into the future and also are large enough to create jobs and be spread out over a number of years. This could end up being a real bright spot in the current situation. Felix Rohatyn, who helped New York rebuild its finances afte a crisis, has a new book "Bold Endeavors: How our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now", using examples like the rebuilding of the Erie Canal, the transcontinental railroad, and the Interstate Highway System, and says the US needs to build for the future with more ambitious, better planned projects today. He says, that infrastructure is not an expense, it has to be seen as a vitally needed and productive investment. People like Rohatyn and others see the Stimlulus plan as a missed opportunity because a lot of these projects mentioned here and the numerous others not shown here will simply not see much money from the government to support them and get them off the ground. The idea that this is wasteful government spending that is spreading, may be a danger to this vision and opportunity. At the same time the reality is that if all this was happening during the time of the Erie Canal or the postwar period of the Interstate Highway System it would have been much easier to support. The banking crisis fix is taking away so many of the dollars that could have gone here, that this may be the missed opportunity, the lack of room for visionary investments because of the danger of pushing the government deficit to 60% of GDP with the current spending plans. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain's economy in 2017 is back to its size before the collapse in 2010 with the eurozone debt crisis and failing housing market. The unemployment rate has dropped from 26% to 18%, still high but gradually coming down. The economy has improved competitiveness and the auto industry is improving exports providing 17% of total exports. The SEAT auto plant has undergone a major transformation. Here Goodman of the NYT describes how this economic recovery is taking place in the port city of Barcelona.

LyrArc Article Gist
US ambassador to the UN agencies for food and agriculture describes the precarious situation in Africa and Asia with the lack of food supplies and fertilizer supplies from Ukraine. She says we are nowhere near the 20 million tons that come out of Ukraine normally and there's over 100 ships waiting to get into Black Sea ports. The war is affecting planting season in Ukraine. Cindy McCain is the wife of the former Senator from Arizona, and she says that there is no water in Arizona for agriculture and yet golf courses everywhere, that climate change is a huge part of the food crisis.

LyrArc Article Gist
Problems in the power sector that limit India's economic growth. Power plants being built are short of coal and other fuel supplies. Coal supply has not kept up with increase in power plant capacity- coal production increased by a mere 1% in 2011 and power plant capacity increased 11%. The gap between demand and supply for power increased from 7.7% in 2010 to 10.2% in 2011. Coal India which has 80% of production has not invested enough in new mining equipment and technology to rapidly increase production. This combined with higher energy costs for imports and weak infrastructure continues to act as a constraint to economic growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
To keep prices from taking a nosedive if there is a slowdown, as for example in the Chinese economy, a concentration of resources within 3 or 4 mining companies enable them to slow down development of new deposits to adjust supply with demand. In this case even if China slows, India, Russia and Brazil may still pick up, as they may be less sensitve to the U.S. consumer than China. China is a manufacturing export based economy compared to India and Russia, which are more dependent on internal demand. Iron ore prices have increased by three times since 2003, and China's imports of iron ore have gone up from 29% to half of the world's imports. Prices of all commodities copper, alumina, uranium have shot up. BHP and Rio both based in Melbourne, Australia have absorbed all the medium size companies in the Melbourne mining scene. Australia has traditionally been a leader in this field because of its huge mining resources. Other reasons for consolidation are the more complex technologies needed to develop the remaining deposit finds, which are fewer and fewer and of lesser quality. Another factor is that the resource nationalism in India, Bolivia, Indonesia, Mongolia and other places requires more sophisticated investors. Combining Rio and BHP also means BHP can use the better infrastructure of Rio and invest more productively in future infrastructure rail lines and port development to speed exports to other countries. See the Barta article in the WSJ Link on this on Dec 18, 2007. ...