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Jim Tankersley of the Washington Post looks at the myths and realities of trade following incorrect statements made by Donald Trump about international trade. For example Trump suggests that Japanese automobiles imports are a big problem, though the imports have been cut by over 50% since the 1980's with Japanese companies Toyota and Honda making cars in the U.S. in Kentucky and Ohio. Detroit faces competition from foreign manufacturers based in southern states, including Alabama for Mercedes Benz and Tennessee for Nissan. Mismanagement including lagging in fuel efficiency and quality, and higher health costs for older workers were problems facing Detroit in the past decade. The Obama administration provided support to the auto companies to make the recovery following two bankruptcies in the U.S. auto industry, showing the U.S. has intervened as needed and the auto companies have made transformational changes. A big problem says Trump is the trade agreement with China which he promises to renegotiate. Tankersley points out that no such treaty exists. The U.S. agreed to China's entry into the WTO. This is not something the U.S. can renegotiate as the WTO sets rules for trade for all countries. The likely result of a shift away from Chinese imports would be more imports from countries such as India and Vietnam which are lower cost producers than China. Trump says some of the 2 million jobs lost in the past 2 decades will come back, yet the shift may be towards lower cost countries from China, with fewer jobs coming back to the U.S. High tariffs would not lead to the growth Trump predicts. A study made by Moody's Analytics at the request of the WP shows a Trump move for high tariffs would lead to a recession and lead to mass layoffs as other countries imposed their own tariffs, leading to large loss in U.S. exports. Trump has made claims such as telling the Post that $19 trillion in federal debt could be paid off in 8 years without raising taxes by fixing trade. No grounding on facts is provided by Trump. One of the failures of the media in the 2016 election campaign is the failure of the media to provide scrutiny for candidates claims and wild exaggerations, which have gone uncontested or unquestioned, or without the persistence till satisfactory answers are given by the candidates making them. Especially when the stakes are so high, for the U.S. and for the global economy. ...

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Scott Sperling, co-president of THL Partners, one of the oldest private equity firms, says rather than be anticapitalist the Obama administration is capitalism at work, as the restructuring is rebuilding two auto companies through bankruptcy by reducing unsustainable legacy obligations and making the bankruptcy process work right for these two companies. It also helps these firms get a new start. The process of "creative destruction" that helps make capitalism work is put to work in an enlightened way so there is creation as well as destruction, destruction through the tough choices that all stakeholders had to make, and creation through the new structures that are coming up. Preservation also works here through keeping what was good in these firms, which are the employees who had no part in management's mistakes, and workers who may be just as badly trapped in union ways. Scott also explains why the government's offer of 10% ownership shares to debtholders is fair, considering that without the government's money Chrysler would be worth little....

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Steve Lohr of the NYT talks of industrial policy by the Obama administration that is behind the new mileage standards of 31.5 by 2016. But when one looks at the huge gap opening up between compettitors in Europe and Japan and the Detroit carmakers in technologies for fuel efficiency, and the fact that foreign car makers now control more than 50% of the car market in the USA, it may just be that the Detroit carmakers will now be doing what it takes to compete with the Japanese and the Europeans. And one looks at it carefully one sees a compromise here by the Obama administration, the Euopeans and the Japanese have standards that require closer to 50mpg in 2016, leaving Detroit carmakers behind even with the new standards.

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The perception of Chrysler's travails from Detroit. "Like a resourceful alley cat, disrespected, starving, kicked around, but tenacious," so begins Detroiter Tom Walsh's colum on June 11, 2009, in the Detroit Free Press. Disrespected by Ford and former Chrysler manager who left at the time Daimler took over Chrysler. Its a skinnier more haggard looking Chrysler, and Fiat may do a complete makeover starting with the product line, a Fiat small car line unlike the guzzzlers Chrysler was known for like the Dodge Ram pickup.

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Marchione says in atalk at the Peterson Institute that Chrysler had alot of problems in bankruptcy that were not fixed, including not getting new powertrains and vehicles. "We're not perfect. We're going to continue to screw up." But he said that Chrysler is now doing alot less now than 6 months ago. This focus may help him deliver.

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In a speech at the Peterson Institute Marchionne says Europe has not addressed its problem of 30% overcapacity for making automobiles. He is handling two jobs one at Fiat and one at Chrysler, about which he says: "I am the only one who can guarantee this transfer. There's got to be this blood transfusion and it needs to happen at the speed of light." Within the next 24 months he sees the jobs being split up.

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Obama outlined his views on fuel efficiency goals in his speech to the Detroit Economic Club in May 2007. The thinking of the new President on this issue developed in the last few years as he met with different environmental and conservation groups and studied what was happening in the area of energy. He has used Paul Volcker, Austin Gollsbee, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, and Joshua Steiner, a former Treasury official with abackground in restructuring, as advisors during the bailout discussions. His speech at the Detroit Economic Club faulted the UAW for joining with management in continuing to stall development of fuel efficient automobiles as retooling costs were high and the companies were being required to support high retiree and health benefits costs. In effect the management-UAW staus quo of continuing to turn out the same mix of pickup trucks and SUV's and leaving the gap in small and medium sized cars without the necessary invesments to turn out winners, may have led GM into the situation it faced even before the credit crisis, when sales of larger vehicles just went over the cliff. ...

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Fiat chief Marchionne on a visit to Detroit to do due diligence on its deal with Chrysler, said that no one was lining up to take the deal away from Fiat. He made it clear that the deal, in which for providing its technology in small cars to Chrysler it would get a 35% stake in Chrysler, has to stand on its own two legs. For another $25 million Fiat could raise its stake to 55%. Its only other investment would be in the plant costs for building theses small cars in the USA. Fiat will not use USA government money for Fiat's operations, and only take money from Chrysler after the government is repaid, he said. For the deal to go through everyone has to make concessions, says Marchionne. The logic of the deal may rest on US government help and labor and other stakeholders concessions. In a year Fiat could be importing cars into the USA and in 30 months Fiat could be making cars in the USA.

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The government created a$5 billion fund to guarantee payments to auto parts suppliers for products shipped to car companies. This stabilizes the auto parts companies which are finding it difficult to access credit and have late payments from car companies. It ensures money for payrolls and other expenses. And autoparts companies receivables can now be sold to the fund so that thye have more liquidity. It also generates more confidence for the auto parts sector that they can survive the difficult conditions facing them and be asteady source of parts for car companies.

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Cherry's 50-50 joint venture with Fiat was setup in 2007, with plans to produce 175,000 Fiat and Alfa Romeo cars in China in 2009. Now both companies have decided to postpone the start of production.

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While automakers are trying to stall legislation on higher fuel economy in Congress they are already planning large investments in engine systems that will raise fuel economy. Nardelli states Chrysler's three goals as boosting quality, improving fuel economy, and overseas presence. A $3 billion investment in engine systems is planned by Chrysler with the goal of improving fuel economy. Note that similiar investments are planned by the German companies and some of the new products are to be shown at the upcoming Frankfurt auto show. There the pressures for reducing auto emissions are building up with a strong environmental consciousness in Europe. Phil Murtaugh who headed GM's China operations before becoming Executive VP at Shanghai Automotive Industry recently will join Chrysler's team as head of Asian operations. He will stay in China and report to Michael Manley Executive VP of International Sales. Chrysler plans to export Chery cars made by Chery Automobile Company in China under its Dodge brand. Note that LaSorda and Press will both share the titles of President and vice chairman and split duties which will be a new arrangement being trued out by Cerberus....

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Consideration is a term being used in Detroit auto company marketing efforts, if a customer gives little consideration to a company or brand or if its not on his list of brands or companies to consider, then snap you are not even in the running. The customer does not even visit your dealer showrooms, and no matter how well you make your cars its not going to make a difference. It has to take a lot of neglect of customers for this sort of situation to arise, but its exactly the situation Detroits auto companies face. They are trying marketing ploys such as this one by Ford's advertising agency, but its impact is uncertain. The efforts at GM also focus on marketing but again efforts to put Honda Accords and Toyota Camrys in Saturn dealerships next to the Saturn Aura, for side by side test drives have not had much impact on Aura sales. So a similiar effort for the Chevrolet Malibu in Chevy dealerships has been scrapped. There is even skepticism that a lifetime warranty on engines and transmissions by Chrysler on its vehicles will have much impact, so large is the customer resistance and ingrained perception of American car manufacturers. Over time perceptions may change but it will take a while to convince the American customer who feels he was once treated with disdain, and who will give a good hard look at things before he changes his mind. The figures bear this out. Years of neglect of car buying public and focus on SUV's and trucks is showing up in a 51.3 % share of the market for the American Three companies down from 60% 4 years ago. So half the market has pretty much been conceded to the likes of Honda and Toyota. Actually in the West and East coasts the numbers probably range to 60% and 70% depending on the local area in these 2 regions. So that means more established dealerships for cars, years of marketing effort focussed on cars, sales contacts and so that may take years to dislodge to any degree. The figures behind consideration by JD Powers show that 54% of car buyers are import loyalists, a slightly higher figure than the 51.3% showing that the trend is even more defection to imports in the 1-3 years ahead. And 22% consider both domestic and import cars. With this segment there is more selection in the imports beause only now are the American Three carmakers building up their car model lineups, especially Ford, so this will be ahard fought segment with no certainty that the Detroit Three carmakers will come out on top given the lead and established networks of the carmakers like Toyota and Honda. Only 25% are domestic or American carmaker loyal. A lot may depend on the way a customer is treated from reading letters to the editor in the media by buyers of US and import cars. A car buyer treated with no respect and sincere concern for his needs and preferneces is likely to remember the treatment for a long time. Not just products but attitudes and people in sincerity will have to change....

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Chrysler under Cerberus looks likely to throw out old ideas about how the company should be run. For example whats the right size for Chrysler and how many models and sales levels and the domestic focus. a lot of these ideas may go out the window to try to get the company to operate successfully. Expect a smaller company fewer but better models, and an international focus, at sales levels way below that in the past. Profitability matters old conceptions will be tossed out.

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An oldtimer or longtimer Glickenhaus who started on the Street in 1929 describes the crisis he sees in credit markets and wall street in October 2008. He says "the economy is so weak and the financial system so damaged that a recession or even possible depression will last for at least five years." He says we have gotten soft in the USA politically, economically and in every way, e have had so much prosperity that we can't compete anymore. "In things like autos those days are gone "( he was once a big Chrysler investor). He says he is more pessimistic about the future of business, more than he is pessimistic even than in the future of the stock market.

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GMAC under Cerberus 51% ownership is actually restricting credit for purchases of GM cars by insisting on credit scores over 700. To the point that GM is encouraging dealers to look for financing outside GMAC. Not a good state of affairs. Cerberus motivation may be that it wants the rest of GMAC instead of Chrysler and wants GM to give its 49% of GMAC in exchange for Chrysler's merging operations with GM. But anywhere upt half of Chrysler employees could lose their jobs in such a merger because there is no time for long term integration and the costcutting would be immediate. Again a bad state of affairs. And merging a money losing company with another money losing company at the beginning of a deep recession is not the kind of merger that has the chances of some success.

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According to analysts about 3.1 million workers across the USA work in auto manufacturers or related businesses. And every direct job at an automaker in the USA creates 5 other jobs according to the Center for Automotive Research, 2 of the 5 are related to suppliers or dealers and three are related to jobs a businesses where industry workers spend their paychecks. About 355,000 workers are directly employed by automakers, and the USA has 783,000 who make parts for automakers or the aftermarket including repair parts, says Debbie Menk project manager for CAR. Each of those supplier jobs has its own substantial trickle down effect. Another 1.97 million workers produce the steel, rubber and other materials to make the parts, or provide engineering, distribution and other support services, bringing the total to 2.78 million employees with jobs tied to suppliers. The spinoff effects spills into stores and restaurants relying on the incomes of those workers. Menk says that there are 1.7 million people who owe their jobs to the fact that the 2.7 million have jobs, getting the figure up to 4.4 million just on the supplier side. Factoring in some overlap in the retail spinoff from each supplier and automaker job, she estimates total employment in the auto industry at a minimum of 5 million jobs. She describes CAR's figures which are based on a study from earlier this year that used 2006 data, the most recent available, as conservative. Other experts like Anderson Economic Group using 2006 data come up with a higher figure of 8.7 million jobs. The auto industry spends spends more on R&D than any other industry except the government, $18.5 billlion a year says McAlinden, chief economist for CAR, with 85% of this done in Michigan. They also spend $15 billion in advertising. So why is this not registering in the minds of leaders around the country and in the minds of the public? Its possible that most people see only the 355,000 jobs at the automakers and not realize that the 355,000 direct jobs are assembly jobs which is what the automakers do and design and R&D, but there thousands of parts that go into this assembly, and the steel, rubber and aluminium that goes into the metal. And then there are the jobs to feed, clothe, and provide services to these workers. And its possible the arrogance and mismanagement at Detroit automakers, and failure to come up with innovative fuel efficient technologies at a time when the country was sending hundreds of billlions of dollars to the volatile middle east, and failure to come up with really appealing passenger cars, have soured the public mind and image of the Detroit automakers. Resulting in a public perception that the Japanese, Korean and other automakers could pickup where Detroit failed. In the process what is being missed is that the Detroit portion of the USA auto industry is a very significant part of the jobs and economy of certain states, and a big part of the economy of the midwestern states. And as CAR mentions most people do not realize that in the financial services industry one Wall Street job creates only 2.5 jobs elsewhere including spinoff jobs. Only high-tech comes close with 4 jobs including spinoffs for every direct job in Silicon Valley. ...

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The difficult task ahead for Fiat's Marchionne, trying to reverse Chrysler's decline. Running Opel and Fiat, will take a lot of energy and initiative, and its by no means clear how he is going to go about doing this. Some arithmetic done by analysts shows the value of the Fiat, Opel, Chrysler auto companies, by excluding other non-auto parts of Fiat, and taking out Fiat debt and liabilities estimated at $8 billion euros. And taking that number and Fiat's market cap, the difference gives a value of 5.5 billion euros as what investors ascribe to Fiat Auto and its ambitions. This is just one fourth of the Fiat auto units 2009 revenues of 21.7 billion euros, as estimated by Morgan Stanley.

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The economic effects of US and German-French sanctions on Russia ar shown here in this Guardian article by Jim O'Neill, who helped coin the term BRICS that include Russia. The sanctions are likely to make the Russian economy even less significant than its current role in the world economy.  Renewable energy development and alternative use of LNG through new super terminals will likely be speeded up with new investments in Germany and the US. The result could be even faster depreciation of oil based assets for economies dependent on oil and gas exports. This would also contribute to the COP26 pledges for accelerated response to global warming. Western oil companies will also be put in a situation where an accelerated shift to renewables is seen as connected to less dependence on outside sources and so enhancing energy security. Productivity gains and gains in technology are also dependent on good relations with the economies of Europe and the US, Japan, for the rest of the world. This leaves economies that are left out in some form or other failing to grow up to their potential, a situation that accelerates over time and could be seen clearly in the next 5-10 years. This would impact growth rates and economic development in these countries and reverse years of gains in the last two decades.     ...