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James Stewart of the NYT looks at the outlook for U.S. and international stock and bond markets in 2016. In 2015 stock and bond markets in the U.S. and international were affected by the huge fall in the price of oil and the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy. This affected commodity producing countries and the oil industry worldwide including the U.S. The slowdown in China affected stock markets in other countries including Germany.

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IDC reports that Samsung sold 72.4 million smartphones in the second quarter of 2014. The pace of growth is slowing as Samsung faces intense competition from Lenovo, HTC, ZTE in the low end of the smartphone market. High marketing costs are pressuring margins. Samsung second quarter net profit increased by 50% over the prior year quarter. Samsung expects weaker sales of the Galaxy S4 and has ramped up marketing promotion. Demand for expensive smartphones is declining. This has resulted in a 12% decline in Samsung's share price since late April when Samsung started selling the Galaxy S4. Apple faces a 22% decline in profits in the second quarter of 2013.

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The market for copper experienced a global oversupply in the last 4 years with a sharp decline in prices. The Sierra Gorda mine in Chile and the Constancia mine in Peru will add more supply of copper. Prices of iron ore dropped 50% in 2014, and copper 14%. The CEO of Glencore PLC, Ivan Glasenberg, says the problem is a huge misallocation of capital, as companies in the mining business continued to invest heavily with supplies outstripping demand.

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As a new architectural aspect takes shape in New Delhi the Indian Express describes what cam before it and over which the new layer takes place. The shift of the capital from Calcutta to New Delhi in 1911 with Curzon's partition of Bengal leading to much unrest in the Bengal region. Lutyens was the architect of that colonial Delhi laid out for a mere period of 30 years when it became obsolete with the Quit India Movement of 1941. The capital has remained in New Delhi, only to be redone in 2021 under prime minister Modi to reflect Indian national unity and extending from the new War Memorial to the new Parliament Building along a new path that honors a new nation built on the remains of the old. In the context of 2047 the British period begins to appear a mere interruption from 1850's to 1950's for a civilization that goes back to the Buddha at Sarnath and Kusinara about two thousand five hundred years back, forty generations back.

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A transcript of remarks by Ben Benrnake as Fed Governor on Dec. 9, 2003, at meeting of the Federal Open Market Comittee which makes monetary policy in the USA. Bernanke is teling his colleagues here that it would be amistake to choke off growth unnecessarily by raising rates, that critics who say inflation is a threat are not well informed, and that the Open Market Comittee should remain patient. Here he points out that the large decline in the share of the population that is working -with one survey showing household employment at 2.9 million jobs below normal at that time- suggesting that employment could rise significantly before seeing pressure on wages and unit labor costs. With the underutilization of labor, the withdrawal of people from the full time labor force, and increase in parttime employment, there are todfay anumber of changes ocurring in the labor markets that build additional slack into the system from what the unemployment rate of 9% today would suggest. A similiar case could be made today with factory capacity utilization at 68% and dropping, and manufacturing hard hit and seeing a permanent downsizing in industries like automobiles. What about raw materials prices? Bernanke shows agraph of historical data, that suggest convincingly he says, even very large movements of raw materials prices appear to have muted effects on intermediate goods prices and no discernible effects on final goods inflation. The reason for this is that raw materials prices are only asmall portion oftotal costs, and unit labor costs are a far larger factor in inflation determination that raw materials prices. And at that time as is happening today wage growth is slow or negative. What about the dollar falling in value making imports more expensive, which we face today? Here Bernanke says that asimilar anlysis applies to the dollar. Large movements of the dollar he says, translate into smaller movements against the U.S. trade-weighted basket of currencies, and into smaller effects on import prices because of imperfect pass-throughs. And he goes on to say that the nonoil import prices, in turn, are are a relatively modest part of the overall price index, making the ultimate effects quite small. This analysis by Bernanke of the impact of rising raw materials prices and falling dollar having a muted effect, and the important role slack and underutilization of labor in the labor markets play in inflation, helps respond to critics like Laffer and others who say inflation is a threat and call for changes in the policy course the Fed has set....

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Is G.M. pushing too early for an I.P.O. offering in the fourth quarter. Would a year or more of good results improve the chances of making an I.P. O. on attractive terms. By then the proceeds could be used to invest in growth, fund healthcare and pension liabilities, instead of just offering an exit for the government.

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Extraordinary returns of 8-15 times the original investment for investors in AMR (American Airlines) shares following the merger with U.S. Airways.

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Casey describes the crucial policy errors in Brazil with over spending and lack of transparency in the years leading to the crisis in 2014-2015. Brazil raised interest rates half a percentage point in May 2015 to 13.25%. Inflation was at 8.13% in Brazil in March 2015. Brazilian companies have large dollar denominated debt accumulated during the boom years which needs to be refinanced as its currency the real declines. With current policies economic growth is likely to continue at 0-1%. Russia made policy errors with the departure of Kudrin as finance minister for Putin's second term as president. Policies to attract foreign investment, controlling military expenditures, and continuing growth were reversed as Russia took positions on Ukraine that led to western sanctions, capital outflows, and a sharp decline in the ruble. By May 2015 the ruble and oil prices had recovered from lows, but the ruble was still 35% below the level in June 2014, and the oil prices were still only two thirds of the peak in 2014. Russia sees the decline in the ruble as a way to reduce imports and increase import substitution for many products. The economy is weakened by high inflation- inflation was 6.9% in March 2014, going up to 16.9% in March 2015. In May 2015 Russia lowered the target repo rate by 1.5 percentage points to 12%. Russia faces stagflation- high unemployment with low GDP growth, and high inflation....

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The last days and the last hours for Wachovia, as Robert Steel- formerly at the Treasury, who became CEO at Wachovia in July 2008- tried to save Wachovia as its share price plummeted. The immediate cause of the crisis was an imminent downgrade of ratings of Wachovia by the credit ratings agencies just as as the bank had billions of dollars in debt coming due this week, and the collapse of WaMu that created crisis conditions for Wachovia with its large holdings of so called toxic assets. Steel tried to negotiate a deal with Wells Fargo's Kovacevich, who initially offered a price in the tens of billions (about $20 billion), and said he could do it on his own without FDIC help. Then on the last day he backed off saying he had concerns for some of Wachovia loan portfolios. At this point Fed, FDIC and Treasury officials were huddled together in meetings to figure out what should be done. Steel was in conversations with Citigroup's Pandit at this point, and FDIC offered to guarantee losses on bad loan portfolios of Wachovia above $42 billion, in exchange Citi would give the FDIC warrants on Citi stock and preferred shares worth $12 billion as an insurance payment. The price at which Citigroup acquired Wachovia at this point was nearly $2 billion. One thing remained. What about the bondholders. WaMu's bondholders were wiped out, so this time Treasury did not want to rattle the credit markets further. It needed someone to shoulder Wachovia's $54 billion debt, which Citigroup at this point agreed to do. Citi gets a large number of Wachovia branches and depositors with this deal, combining the $393 billion of deposits of Wachovia with its $208 billion in deposits, making it the 3rd largest bank in the USA in terms of deposits after Bank of America and Chase. See graphs....

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A drug store chain that invented the malt shake and had a store at every street corner in America from the 1900's Walgreens is taken private by Sycamore investment firm for $10 billion. At one time it was valued at $100 billion in 2017 and its stock hit new lows by 2024 hit by depressed margins for pharmacy drugs it reported lower earnings in 2024. In Jan 2025 the Department of Justice sued Walgreens for contributing to the opioid crisis in its dispensing of pills leading to its stock price dropping to $10 and its market value to $8.9 billion. Earlier Sycamore had taken Staples office supplies store chain private in 2017 for $6.7 billion.

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Carrefour's new CEO in June 2012, Mr. Plassat, describes his plans for reviving the company. This includes giving more autonomy to stores to reduce overhead costs, reducing the number of employees, selling its Greek supermarket business to its local partner and exiting Turkey. Unions estimate job losses at 3000-5000. He says the company is overly centralized at the international level and in the domestic market. He pointed to the 500 million euros of "superficially used money," that was put into marketing in the domestic market and says some of it needs to go into improving stores. Carrefour's share price has fallen by over 50% in 2011-2012. Plassat's plan is for a three year turnaround.

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Xiaomi, a maker of smartphones in China, traded for about US$2.15 per share on the Hong Kong stock market on July 9, 2018 after its IPO. Xiaomi was valued at US$43 billion, about half of the value that was expected. Reasons given by experts are that Xiaomi is one of a number of smartphone makers in the highly competitive Chinese market. Xiaomi has about half of its sales in India and other countries where it sells low cost smartphones with more value based on features included. Problems that it experienced in Brazil in connecting with national carriers made investors cautious about Xiaomi's market position in other developing countries. Limiting its profitability is its position as a hardware maker in a competitive market, without the profitability of other internet companies. Xiaomi surged in the last decade in China as a local producer of smartphones that provided features of more expensive brands at a lower price. It built a following as a quality local brand in China. ...

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BP announces a $8 billion share buyback in March 2013. BP received $12.5 billion and an 18.5% stake in Rosneft for selling its stake in the TNK-BP joint venture. BP will use the rest of the money from the sale to reduce its debt.

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King Charles thanked the police and citizens for their role in the riots saying-  he “shared how he had been greatly encouraged by the many examples of community spirit that had countered the aggression and criminality from a few with the compassion and resilience of the many”. The UK riots showed the inadequacy of the Online Safety Act in regulating social media. This is what the public thinks and what the prime minister had to say about this-   YouGov polling published on Friday suggested that 66% of people thought social media companies should be held responsible for posts inciting criminal behaviour, and 70% believed they were not regulated strongly enough. In YouGov poll this week, 71% say they think social media companies did a bad job tackling misinformation during the riots. For social media, Starmer said: “The first thing I’d say is, this is not a law-free zone. And I think that’s clear from the prosecutions and sentencing. Today we’re due sentencing for online behaviour. “That’s a reminder to everyone that whether you’re directly involved or whether you’re remotely involved, you’re culpable, and you will be put before the courts if you’ve broken the law.” ...

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Judicial interpretation of India's Constitution enables upward mobility, building the infrastructure that supports upward mobility without leakage of funds, and world social justice, says Chief Justice of India's Supreme Court D.Y. Chandrachud. He was giving the Nani Palkhivala Memorial Lecture in Mumbai.  Prime minister Modi could not pursue India's rapid development program to benefit all parts of society without the help of the Supreme Court in interpreting the Constitution in a way that supports India's development. "The identity of the Indian Constitution has evolved through the interaction of Indian citizens with the Constitution and has been accompanied by judicial interpretation... If you look at the Constitution, it does not favor unbounded economic liberalism. Rather, our Constitution seeks to find the right balance. When individuals can exercize their liberties and to be fairly rewarded for their efforts, then economic justice becomes one of the many inter-related dimensions of life. Ultimately, we share common faiths and destinies to the point that development of each individual fosters social justice in the entire world." "The basic structure doctrine of India's Constitution is that it guides and gives certain direction to its interpreters and implementers, when the path is convoluted. The craftsmanship of a judge lies in interpreting the text of the Constitution with the changing times while keeping its soul intact." This happened when Nani Palkhivala presented the idea before the Supreme Court in 1973 against prime minister Indira Gandhi's Emergency rule that parliament had limits to its powers when it came to amending the Constitution if by amending it the amendment would destroy the spirit of the Constitution or its basic idea. This includes freedom of expression, rule of law, separation of powers, freedoms guaranteed to all citizens. The amending power is limited and cannot be turned into an absolute power. Another way of looking at it is that parliament itself is organized by statutory authority. And it cannot destroy or dismantle the very basic features of the law (the Constitution) that created it in the first place.     ...

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Brazil's oil company, Petrobras, has 55.7% of voting shares controlled by the government. Petrobras's nonvoting shares make up most of the widely held stock, which has increased significantly in recent years. Petrobras is Latin America's largest publicly traded company with market value of $96.9 billion. Oil production by Petrobras is 1.9 million barrels a day, larger than Brazil's expected consumption of 1.85 million barrels a day for 2006. The policies of former President Henrique Cardoso are credited with making Petrobras competitive. Cardoso passed a constitutional amendment that allowed foreign companies to compete against Petrobras. And he put new managers from banking in charge of the company, leading to significant changes in how the company was run. With new deepwater drilling oil production increased by 12% a year during the Cardoso years 1997-2002. Under the Lula administration Petrobras has also reflected the government's social goals by delaying passing on price increases in gasoline and cooking gas and limiting the price increases. Under President Lula the CEO and senior managerial appointments for Petrobras have come from the ranks of his political party, the PT. Jos Eduardo Dutra, and Jos Gabrielli are members of PT. Under the Lula government Petrobras faced little competition from foreign oil companies and Petrobras dominates the Brazilian oil sector....

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The International Energy Agency lowers its global oil demand forecasts on Dec. 11, 2014, leading to further drop in the price of oil with oil futures in electronic trading for WTI at $58.89 on New York Mercantile Exchange, and Brent crude at $62.83 on ICE in London, for January 2015. The price of WTI U.S. oil dropped to $59.95 on Dec. 11, 2014.

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The latest news from Catalonia ahead of the Dec. 21, 2017 election shows a hugely divided region in Catalonia, as prime minister Rajoy of Spain campaigns in Barcelona. The head of the left wing ERC party which is likely to win the largest share of the vote according to a poll in newspaper La Vanguardia was arrested along with fired ministers in the Puigdemont government. This time unlike the 2015 election ERC party says it will not join Mr. Puigdemont in a single pro independence bloc. Mr. Puigdemont is in exile in Brussels after declaring independence for Catalonia. Barcelona's mayor Ada Palau who won in 2015 on a platform showing support for people who suffered after the financial crisis and real estate meltdown, says she does not support the independence movement. Palau says Mr. Puigedemont and others "tricked the population for their own interests." She is critical of the way prime minister Rajoy handled the crisis including invoking Article 155 to dismiss the elected government for new elections. Palau has broken the pact with the Socialist Party. This shows a fragmented and divided population when it comes to independence. This BBC report says about half of Catalans today do not support independence for a complete break with Spain. ...

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See the piece on GE's Energy Gusher in Ahead of the Tape. As GE's financial services business led to earnings shortfall and 13% drop in its share price on April 11, investors may be overlooking the strong position of GE in energy businesses like turbines, nuclear energy, and in oil and gas. GE's overeseas sales went up by 23% in 2007 driven by 23% gain in its energy centric infrastructure business. Additional note is that GE is in the healthcare business and in green environmental business which should see growth even in a recession. And the financial services business may see further trimming after the earnings shortfall, so that GE is well positioned for the future.

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The transfer of high speed rail technology by Kawasaki to China, starting with deals made in 2004. Kawasaki did this fearing that other competitors would win the business. It transferred the technology believing that it would be years or decades before China would develop its own capabilities and compete with high speed rail manufacturers in Japan and Europe. Kawasaki says the understanding was that the transferred technology would be used inside China, and not for export. China insists it has improved on the technology that was transferred with its own innovations, and it has the right to compete in the world high speed rail market. A high speed rail line between Shanghai and Beijing is being built using Chinese technology by China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Industry Corporation (CSR), to cut the time from 10 hours to 4 hours. This is part of a network that will be extended to 9700 miles by 2020 according to the government's plan. As part of its export of high speed rail China Railway Construction Corporation is developing a high speed rail line connecting Istanbul and Ankara. China is bidding for contracts in Brazil and in the USA. The issue of transferring technology is becoming a sensitive one for Germany, Japan and the USA. It means transferring the technology as the price of getting a share of the Chinese market, but paying the price later on with competition from Chinese competitors in the same industry. China is developing its own civilian aircraft that would compete with the Boeing 737 and the Airbus 320. Min Zhu, special advisor for the IMF and former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, told the Wall Street Journal CEO Council, that China's share of advanced machinery manufacturing could reach 30% of global exports by 2020, from 8% today. ...

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Solomon and Said give a detailed account of the events leading to the steep decline in oil prices to $61 a barrel by December 2014. The steep declines have caused a shock for OPEC and non-OPEC producers. A price decline of this magnitude may not have been anticipated by the Saudis, and there are divisions among Saudi officials and in the royal family about whether such steep cuts are best for Saudi Arabia. The price per barrel of oil for each OPEC country to balance its budget varies widely, according to IMF and IEA, WSJ, sources. For Saudi Arabia this estimate is $106, Iraq 101, for Russia $98. The Saudis have $750 billion in foreign currency reserves. At the high end are Libya at $184, Iran at $131, Algeria $131, Nigeria $122, Venezuela $117. The UAE is at $77, Qatar $60. Norway is at the low end at $40. On Dec. 19, 2014 the price of Brent crude, ICE for Jan. delivery was $61.38.