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The title of this BBC report is a misnomer as the content of the report is that India and the US are actively negotiating a Trade Agreement after some disagreements on Indian oil purchases from Russia bumped up from 2% before 2019 to about one third to 40% of its imports by 2024. This is being rapidly reversed and some estimates by consultants CLSA show India only made $2-3 billion from Russian discounted oil sales, a miniscule amount. On American interest in agricultural exports India can take in some products other than grain which it sees as important to feed 1 billion people and food security.  DJT says the "special relationship" between India and the US is important, and says "there's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion". India has much bigger stakes in trade with the US. In fact it's growth into the third largest economy in the world means doubling or tripling its trade with the US and the European Union in the next few years. This would narrow the difference in GDP and per capita between India and China, as India and China started at the same GDP and per capita in 1950. Only in 1990 with China's trade with the US has the Chinese GDP and per capita income increased to create the huge gap with India. ...

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The Editorial Board of the Washington Post says people should be concerned about going back to the 70's when New York City struggled with funding and went downhill. The very goal of affordability that Mamdani is trying to achieve could end up being hit because the methods may not work at all. It says free bus service means a transit funding hole, city run stores would hurt privately run stores, and a rent freeze would depress housing supply. Greg Ip in the WSJ compares Austin with NYC with Austin seeing 20% increase in housing supply to NYC 3% in 2020-2024. Austin had a 23% jump in one year in housing prices but it came down and over 4 years rent increases in NYC are 20% in Austin 11%.  It is only that much of the New Yorker educated elites have let the city down so much by not finding solutions to the affordability crisis and not focusing on fixing infrastructure and modernization of the American cities, in the last three decades that this has happened- as a desperate young population turns to giveaways or free services across the board as a solution that never works. A fiscal crisis could happen as in the 1970's creating another vicious cycle says the Washington Post. It says one can only hope that the damage is at the margins. ...

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In Lithium ion batteries and key pharmaceutical ingredients, special semiconductors China is able to use the concentration of manufacturing capacity anc dependence on China to prevent the US and EU negotiating a way to recover lost supply chains. Supply chains that were carelessly turned over to China, a developing country at that time, by business executives of the US and EU in the 1990-2020 period who lacked vision and foresight. China's policy is to increase the dependence of US and EU, to tighten this dependence to achieve its goals. XI Jinping says WSJ wrote in a 2020 essay- that he wasn't for weaponizing it but that China must “tighten the dependence of international industrial chains on our country” so that it would be a way to respond and create negotiating room for continued access to technologies and markets in the US and EU were the US and EU to make efforts to recover the supply chains they had inadvertently and carelessly turned over to China. This action by US and EU business executives should be considered one of the major and ignominous failures of American and European business management of that period 1990-2020 which has made it difficult to even make the initial effort to recover these lost supply chains. As with the banks in the 2009 financial crisis that generation of management continues to operate as if nothing has happened.  ...

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In the centenary year of the Lincoln Memorial, America's and the Free World's most iconic monument, the Washington Post gives this story on how it went from conception in 1867 to the cornerstone being laid in 1915 to its opening in 1922. In 1939 it acquired new meaning as Marian Anderson sang "My Country I sing of thee," a video of this being shown here. By the 1940's it symbolized the struggle to bring all races and peoples of north and southern US together as it had done up to that time, but also the struggle of the Free World in the newly decolonized countries of Asia and Africa. This is an aspect of the Lincoln Memorial and its inscription that has not been told. The words of Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence combined with the words of Lincoln to strike a chord in the countries of Asia and Africa struggling for freedom.  The words of Jefferson- We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain inalienable Rights, and among these are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. The inscription on the Lincoln Memorial- In this temple as in the hearts of the people for whom he saved the Union, the memory of Abraham Lincoln is enshrined forever.        ...

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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For the first time in three decades US economic growth will be much faster than China's. Second quarter 2021 growth in the US was 12.2% compared to 7.9% in China, and will continue to be much higher for five consecutive quarters. This report in the WSJ says it is the result of the US response to the Covid pandemic. The US vaccination drive, massive fiscal stimulus and near zero interest rates have helped, including the confidence generated by the $1 trillion infrastructure investments planned for this decade. Over the longer term Capital Economic estimates China's GDP around 2030 will drop to 2% growth with demographic decline, just as the demographic factors favor Indian growth to levels that China has seen in the last two decades. This was the plan and vision set out by the Indian prime minister for 2047, on the 100th anniversary of independence. For the future government help has helped US households accumulate $2.6 trillion in excess household savings, which Moody's estimates is 7 times that in China.  In the longer term gaps will have narrowed between Asia and Europe, the US, which is a good thing. More will need to be done in Africa and Latin America. Much of the talk about who leads ignores the local needs in cities and towns across all parts of the world for a better quality of life, better education, better nutrition, better healthcare, meeting aspirations of young people, and supporting hope for a better future. ...

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Larry Fink thinks there has been for retirement "an historical shift from certainty to uncertainty," from security in the earlypost war years of Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and LBJ to precarious living in the post Reagan era of "free to choose." It is mind boggling to grasp the idea that 4 in 10 Americans lack $400 in emergency funds for a health emergency. It has been hard to wrap my mind around such a fact. Are you in the same boat? Larry Fink CEO of Black Rock financial firm with half of its $10 trillion of funds in investment assigned to retirement has joined us. Fink says- "America needs an organized high level effort to ensure that future generations can live out their lives in dignity." He wants some hard conversations. And here are his initial thoughts- Create predictable income streams like pensions for all workers including lower paid or part-time workers.  Follow 20 states in setting up retirement systems to cover all workers, including gig and part time workers in lower paid income jobs. This covers a huge number of workers counted by the millions who perform the work that makes the country and the economy run. From workers in restaurants to hospitality workers, and in lower paid health care jobs, in help for the elderly, help for children in child care. Encourage employers to offer matching funds. ...

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A transformation of the scale of what De Gaulle did for France in about that same period 1954-1963, in 13 years transforming a agricultural state with 80% illiteracy under British rule in 1947- this happened in the former Madras Presidency, Madras state in post independent India. Schools and high schools spread across the state, national to the state public sector projects were brought for industry, and dams built for electricity to the towns and rural areas. That is the story of Madras in that period. It was all done with clean governance with Gandhiji's principles. The period after the 1970's led to governments with caste based politics with lower castes from a Self-Respect movement pitted against Brahmins and upper castes sort of like the Irish as a deprived caste pushing out the Boston Brahmins yet binging with it Tammany Hall style politics of New York in the turn of the century America. By the 1900's you had Theodore Roosevelt challenging this kind of Tammany Hall politics, for clean governance. In 2024 Modi is sort of like Theodore Roosevelt challenging the existing system in the Tamilnadu Madras state on the basis of seeking the Nation's development and modernization comparable to China and Japan by 2047 what is called Vikshit Bharat. This is the only way to understand it for Americans as Indian themselves don't fully understand many castes interwoven in India as different groups and nationalities are in Europe plus more stratification. ...

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This opinion of the Editorial Board of WSJ says it is not clear why Taiwan has been excluded from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that includes most of South East Asia including Indonesia, and India, South Korea, Japan, Australia. The Biden administration plans to deepen economic ties with Taiwan. WSJ says this is a mistake and Taiwan should be included in the new Asian alliance led by the US. IPEF is a Asian alliance built around 4 pillars of digital economy, transparency and good governance, Asian security and rule of law, and rapid economic technological progress. Biden administration Commerce minister Raimondo says it will increase investment in the alliance countries for supply chain renewal and shift of investments away from China and into India, Vietnam. President Biden and Jake Sullivan see it as pulling in investment into the US for infrastructure and technology and into allies such as India who have the pool of manufacturing workers to compete with China in a new supply chain. Mr. Modi also sees it as he is focused on digital economy, good governance, and infrastructure with speed and scale at high levels to match rising aspirations for the economy in India. It is designed in a way that lets US, Japan South Korea and India to fill in the needs and strategies over the period to 2030 and 2040 so that US and Europe and the Free World in Asia and Latin America, Africa can preserve democratic values with matching technological and economic strength. ...

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It depends- only if you look at it in actual millions of people. In percent of people Voice of America and this WSJ report show that US obesity rate is much higher with 22 states above 35% and the rate overall at about 25%, compared to China's at about 14%. The fact that this was reported in this way is happening as this issue is taken far too casually in the US, when the quality of life is largely dependent on health. And such high levels of obesity in the US, catastrophic levels in some southern and midwestern states, means one is not doing things right and heading for a poorer quality of life. This report in the WSJ cites estimates of obesity in China of as high as 200 million and likely to grow by another 100 million by 2034, about 14% of the population being obese today and obesity increasing to about 20%. In China the demand for weight loss drugs is growing. The government has a program to reduce the intake of salt, sugar and oil and increase health foods in the diet. Meat in the diet has tripled and there is a need for more health conscious attitudes in China, even more so and urgently in the US. Both the US and China are too auto centric in their culture, particularly the US where public transportation has not been given high priority leading to a lack of enough exercise getting to work. ...

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This essay by Hein De Haas in the WSJ says there is a need for honest discussion about immigration in the US, about how best to accomodate the need for workers in certain trades and occupations in an organized way. In fact there is no need for the issue to be politicized this much. It needs to be depoliticized now that the needs for these workers are going to be larger not smaller as the US population ages and there is need for workers in healthcare and support for aging, and in other places such as construction, building infrastructure as US rebuilds aging bridges, roads and airports. In the seventies it was ned for agricultural workers and temporary workers moving back and forth across the border. Only in recent times has the border crossings assumed the scale and dimension it now has with 2.5 million border crossings at the peak. By comparison to the needs for workers only 500,000 are given work permits. And the laws have not been changed since the Reagan administration amnesty and legislation. Haas says workforce enforcement is negligible today in recognition of the fact of worker needs even under Republican administrations showing the need for honest discussion and resolution of this problem. The other problems of rebuilding manufacturing, US competitiveness, education and vocational training, are very different and require different solutions so that letting the immigration issue spill over the way it has is bad for America in deciding the future direction of the country and the economy, and renewing hope for the future. ...

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PM Modi asks India's youth to help bring about an end to the leakage of public funds that end up illegally in private hands when these funds are desperately needed to build roads, bridges, housing, logistics centers for exports, airports and ports on a scale similar to the United States and EU nations. Only by doing this and focussing every penny for building infrastructure and international trade under Made in India can India meet the aspirations of 1.2 billion people and set the pace for the 0.5 billion people in other parts of south and south east Asia including neighboring Indonesia- 1.7 billion people. The US and European Union would be grateful that this happens as it secures the future also of the US and the EU nations through a new manufacturing supply chain. With this effort India would integrate efforts for renewable energy and combating climate change with the US, European Union, and the nations of Latin America and Africa on a new scale that is needed. Jobs come with infrastructure and Made in India manufacturing, it is the foundations that have to be put in just as for a house being built. See the pledge and how significant it is in Lyrarc Insights (see left side front page menu) under India - The Way Forward, Bharat and Cina in Sanskrit - the heritage of Vedanta and the Buddha that the Asian people identify with. ...

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The 2016 election will be decided by changing demographics and shifting coalitions between Democrats and Republicans. The changing demographics mean that a higher Latino vote in states such as Nevada, Colorado and Florida could bring these states to Democrats. And the working class vote in the industrial midwest in Ohio and the vote in some farm rural states such as Iowa could bring these states to Republicans. Michigan is another industrial midwest state which is uncertain as the older industrial centres such as Youngstown, Ohio, Scranton, Pennsylvania, and parts of Michigan- a big change from when unionized workers voted Democratic. The millenials, college educated women, and suburban voters in cities such as Denver, Miami, Las Vegas and Washington are now part of a new Democratic coalition. Most striking is the way the electorate is divided between better educated and less educated, between men and women, and between young and older voters. In fact with the conservative cultural emphasis in the Republican platform older voters are looking back to bringing back the 50's, while Democrats and the younger generation are looking forward to the future in this election. This is not an accurate characterization though because in 1948 with Harry Truman and in 1952 and 1956 with Dwight Eisenhower America was changing rapidly and looking to the future, so that by 1960 the civil rights movement was already established, and women were making the transition to being college educated and working in business and government.   ...

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Hear this America- Calling something that is all around us a hoax is not like telling a lie on media. Calling a thing a hoax when it is a growing Threat has Big, Big, Big consequences that you might not even want to think about. Project 2025 and "Drill Baby Drill" would create billions of tons more of carbon pollution and destroy any climate change action that would help control climate change- causing even bigger fires and sudden floods all over the world. The cost says think tank Energy Innovation is 2.7 billion tons of carbon pollution- what India emits in 1 year- and 1.7 million job losses by 2030 from jobs lost in renewable energy including small offset from fossil fuels. The cost would be at the minimum over $1 trillion dollars to repair by 2028- the cost of not taking action on climate change for four years, of additional floods and fires larger than ones before,  and of tackling the additional damage to the climate, the loss of the technological advances needed over next 4 years, the investments needed to tackle a much larger problem than it is now. It would require larger deficits to tackle and risk the health and well being of future generations. For the US compared to China the consequence will be a severe loss of technological advantage in the technologies for renewable energy that no longer, no longer have the support of the government as they do in China.   ...

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As the Nation faces discord over the right Path Forward it is important to remember- the pandemic's costs for a once in a century event are still being added up. Not just 1 million dead. 1 million with struggles over Long Covid. The toll on the elderly affecting tens of millions of caregivers. 10 million affected by decision not to vaccinate- with adverse symptoms and at work, 20-50 million affected by the financial losses stemming from the pandemic hit to jobs and work in 2019-2020. As the Nation discusses its future there is a sense that many have been left behind even with the best intentions of government. With huge wins in infrastructure now and ahead of us,  the wins are not enough in cutting pharmaceutical and other day to day living costs. Harris has a plan and Trump has no plan for Cost of Living Action. Yet a lot more could have been done for cost of living action given a president with a single focus determination to fix problems, make the large investments needed and full support of both houses of Congress. It is this lack of full Congressional support of a determined president for taking action that has led to insufficient effort to fix cost of living, wages and public services- something that needs to change to bring help to the middle class and lower income working people of America. ...

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The complete Transcript of the Harris Trump television debate on ABC Television that went on for 90 minutes. As expected Harris remained organized, thoughtful and precise in her answers to questions of cost of living, the economy, and never wavered in her focus on her plan for an Opportunity Economy that lifts all boats where she said Trump had none. Trump raised the immigration issue in questions about the economy and cost of living failing to tackle one issue at a time and do it well and convincingly. Harris brought up Trump's focus on himself and billionaires, and on Project 2025, when Trump talked about immigration. Trump's response on Project 2025 was long and rambling and failed to register losing critical minutes and spreading himself thin leaving behind the idea that he had no Plan for America, for if he had one would he not have offered it when the question was raised. This set the pattern for the rest of the debate. The next issue Trump hoped to focus on was migrant crime after immigration. This is where his exaggeration that migrant crime was rampant came under the first fact check of the evening by David Muir. Something that other moderators had amazing as it sounds neglected their duty to do - all of them failed to do this with rigor and on the spot- till David Muir. “As you know, the F.B.I. says overall violent crime is coming down in this country.” ...

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If the decline in manufacturing in rural southern Virginia for 500 workers in a low tech deli meatpacking plant can devastate whole communities, then imagine what happens  when manufacturing in chips and science with high paying jobs are put at risk by market forces focused on AI.  This week WSJ carried a story about Qualcomm which does design and does no manufacturing is planning a takeover of Intel, a leader in manufacturing for advanced chips in the US, a key part of Biden-Harris strategy to regain a American foothold in Chips manufacturing. Such a takeover makes no sense for America's long term interests. Qualcomm could simply jettison the manufacturing capabilities -a key part of America's long term chips and science strategy just because AI focus has distorted market forces. IMAGINE THE DAMAGE. Regulators need to safeguard the Nation's long term interests for reliable chips manufacturing within the US, to avoid the crisis experienced with chips outsourced overseas leading to severe shortages in 2021-2023. How this has happened is that AI has created distortions in the market so that companies are valued differently. So that an Nvidia gets valued at $1 trillion and even for a day at $2 trillion then going back down to half that, all within a 12 month period. AI is distorting the market in ways that a chip leader like Intel now gets valued at $90 billion a third of the $290 billion it is valued at only a short time ago, making talk of takeovers possible even from smaller design only companies such as Qualcomm. The market failure in this case comes from markets being distorted by not reflecting true costs of shortages America experienced in chips from lack of its own advanced manufacturing during 2021-2023.   ...

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Robert Morgenthau, District Attorney for Manhattan, 1975-2009, says there is more money on deposit in the Cayman Islands, than in all the banks of New York put together, with 19,000 companies listed there. Cayman is one of several tax havens. Apple use Luxembourg for iTunes. Other tax havens are the British Virgin Islands, Gibraltar, Antigua, Bermuda, the Bahamas. He cites the Senate's Permanent Sub-Committee on Investigations in 2008, which gives the estimate of $5 trillion to $7 trillion sheltered in offshore places on this list, by Americans, Chinese, Europeans and others. Morgenthau says these tax havens help American and European companies not only to avoid taxes, but also structure complex international transactions. He estimates these transactions cost the U.S. Treasury about $40 billion from outright tax fraud each year.

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After the war ended there was concern about jobs for the returning troops by the millions from the war in Europe. Joblessness had increased under Harry Truman to the point that his popularity dropped to 22% by 1951. Truman's Commission for Miratory Labor pointed out that immigration was causing social ills and increasing joblessness in the southwest. When Eisenhower was elected in 1952 there was opposition from unions in addition to small farms to migratory labor. In 1954 Operation Wetback was launched to return 1 million migrants back to Mexico.

Note that throughout 1910 to 1950 the US completely restricted Chinese, Indian, and Asian migration to America, even though the Chinese labor helped build the transcontinental railroad.  

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A drug store chain that invented the malt shake and had a store at every street corner in America from the 1900's Walgreens is taken private by Sycamore investment firm for $10 billion. At one time it was valued at $100 billion in 2017 and its stock hit new lows by 2024 hit by depressed margins for pharmacy drugs it reported lower earnings in 2024. In Jan 2025 the Department of Justice sued Walgreens for contributing to the opioid crisis in its dispensing of pills leading to its stock price dropping to $10 and its market value to $8.9 billion. Earlier Sycamore had taken Staples office supplies store chain private in 2017 for $6.7 billion.

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Top 5 Things emails from junior and senior employees, from 30,000 employees of Nvidia, is how Jensen Huang stays on top of strategic direction for the AI company. Sunday night he gets such emails which tell about what is important to junior emplopyees that can geve Huang a feel for what is happening outside. He does not pay much attention to strategy meetings, tries to work in conference rooms with his ever present favorite marker. Jensen Huang is unlike anything seen in America's tech companies. 

Amazon's Jeff Bezos does not like tech presentations, he prefers a one page writeup that requires writing skills. Huang prefers emails that say briefly what junior employees are thinking.

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WSH recommends that Congress consolidate $100 billon of the $270 billion the Education Department gives out and send the money to the states without conditions on spending. Much of this money can then be used by states to improve reading comprehension and math skills which are woefully falling behind in the US. With each state taking on its own initiatives and other states copying the ones that have good results. This is better than one single approach coming out of the federal bureaucracy, that also has vested interests over time building around it, and which means America is deprived of the ingenuity and successful approaches that some states can achieve, and which can be then copied by other states.

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The May 6 episode of the stock market plunge of 900 points in the U.S. and then recovering had the effect of rattling investors nerves especially retirees. The impact of this episode is recorded in the experience of one Charles Schwab broker office in Englewood, Colorado. By the end of that day this broker had 50 calls on his answering machine from a fifth of his clients, all seeking to know what happened. Charles Schwab, who helped launch a period of individual investing in the U.S. after 1982 by cutting fees and going after the average investor, (along with others like Jack Bogle of Vanguard Funds), is also on edge. He says he has not seen anything like this since his early days. Schwab confirms Yale Prof. Shiller who says (see link) that his index for markets shows a lot of nervousness. Saying that 98% of people are still very concerned, coming after the May 6 incident, and the Greece and eurozone crisis that impacted US stock markets. One other factor he points out is the constant flow of headlines that suggest certain business people engaged in fradulent practices, something that fuels a lack of trust. Charles Schwab ponders from his office across the San Francisco Bay Bridge, whether words like safety and soundness mean anything anymore. Another factor of concern, Bogle points out, is that institutional investors now own 70% of American corporations, up from 35% in 1975. And the advantage has veered sharply in their direction as institutions, hedge funds, and investment banks trade on their own account, with wealth moving in that direction. This leaves the individual investor and especially the retiree or those about to retire in a severe predicament....

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The weak dollar and lower unionized labor costs may make exports an attractive goal for US carmakers as the US market is shrinking. After years of shunning export markets US carmakers may finally be waking up to the potential in places like Brazil, China and India. GM is considering export of the Malibu to Brazil, and expects to send 25,000 Buick Enclaves to China because the Buick brand sells very well there. With the new UAW agreemets and lower unionized costs, the US carmakers backs to the wall and open to trying new things and not so America centric, and a cheaper dollar, exports may be one more way in which US carmakers can revive the automobile business in a declinig uS market. It is possible that after this recession the US market may have matured to the point where US sales levels may have peaked like that in Japan and Germany and exports and international markets are the only ways to growth. In this sense the transformation to making the so called Big 3 into global companies has begun in earnest in a true sense, and their company structures and the kind of people who work there will in future reflect this global nature of their business. The UAW is on board in this effort, new wages are at $14 per hour for new hires, and the UAW understands that exports mean additional jobs. In fact the Lordstown, Ohio plant is one location for another GM small car in the future which would be exported, this 42 year old plant once a target for closure could then become an example of renewal in a new kind of business model. Note that the US exported $50.66 billion in vehicles, half of it to Mexico and Canada. It imported $150 billion in vehicles. From now on the shift wold be to export to emerging markets....

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The U.S. market looks like it is becoming the kind of maturing market that Japan and Germany have become for automobiles. Germany and Japan saw sales peak at high levels and then decline. And they have been declining steadily for several years. The US has a growing population and demographics because of immigration compared to Japan so there wil be continued demand for new cars. However since 2000 carmakers have introduced so many price incentives, interest free loans, and other ways of pushing sales that sales have continued to climb to unsustainable levels. All through the 1990's sales were in the 15 million range, then after 2000 sales climbed, except for the short period of uncertainty after 9/11/2001 Trade Center bombings. Sales climbed up to 17 million and stayed at these higher levels till the recent crises in 2007 saw a drop in sales and a shift to smaller fuel efficient cars. GM was offering 0% financing for 5 years through its Keep America Rolling campaign in the aftermath of 9/11. By 2005 automakers were offering as much as $8000 in discounts on pickup trucks. Employee pricing enabled regular customers to buy at employee prices. The Big Three sold to rental fleets unsold cars, so much so that by 2005 25% of all vehicles made by GM and Ford went to rental fleets, to rental companies in which these companies had large ownership stakes. For GM this became part of strategy. Fixed costs were high and the UAW contracts made it difficult to layoff workers, a jobs bank in which layed off workers could remain till rehired was itself quite costly as money had to be paid to the workers in the job bank. With this kind of inflexibility in the labor market GM could only spread all the fixed costs for its aging workforce which required pension payouts to retirees and health payments to retirees, by selling more automobiles. During this period of inflexibility in labor, and the legacy costs of previous boom years since the 1950's with generous UAW contracts, GM and Ford pushed sales to unsustainable levels; without considering the furture implications of this short term strategy. Another way this could hurt is by pulling sales in future years into current years because of interest free financing or huge discounting which probably happened in 2004-2005 and is seeing a payback today in 2008. At the peak in 2005 carmakers were planning further expansion of SUV capacity or expansion of other carmaking facilities. Gas was still not at the high levels of today. In 1999 gas cost $1.15 cents a gallon, and it was a little higher than that, but nowhere near what we are seeeing today. These new plants are coming up just as the sales are dropping dramatically, the half million SUV's sold in 2008 is about half the sales in 2003, enough to fill 2 plants when many more plants are being built or opening. The new capacity of 4 plants capable of producing 1 million vehicles is looking like a big mistake, like the new Toyota Tundra plant in Texas. Some of the new carmaking capacity is a Toyota plant in Tupelo, Mississippi, a Honda plant in Indiana, and a Kia Motors plant in Georgia. All this means a big drop in factory utilization rates. GM has 2 plants making full size SUV's. Later this year GM will cut production at these plants and at 2 plants making pickup trucks to utilize them only for 1 eight hour shift a day. Toyota has 1 full plant of excess capacity, not including the plant opening in Tupelo, Missisippi, making it likely to be down in utilization very significantly as well. Nissan is only using 65% of capacity at plants in Canton, Mississippi and Smyrna , Tennessee. And these utilization rates reflect the impact at the early stage of the housing crisis, consumption spending is only now beginning to bite, and unemployment is still to take a hit, so th economic recession immpact is still not reflected in auto sales. Even now GM and Chrysler cling to the hope of a sales pickup in late 2008 and in 2009, which is looking less likely by the day. J.D. Powers survey show the North American auto making capacity at 18.7 million cars and production this year at 14.1 million. This means the automakers have disastrously misjudged the auto market, and the role their own actions in pushing sales have affected the market in inflating the sales numbers beyond what is a sustainable sale increase. When credit tightening and lower consumption spending, housing crisis, and higher unemployment all hit the US in full impact by 2009 the situation is likely to worsen significantly and could become a disaster. ...