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Jay Powell, a former US Treasury official, now a scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center, says the fears of budget problems in US states are survivable, even though they will be difficult and painful. He does not see widespread defaults, the way Meredith Whitney has predicted. Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, says a major default would cause serious macro-economic dislocations. It would have impact beyond the US, in the European economies with serious budget problems such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. Analysts cite the following reasons why a widespread debt default by states and local governments is unlikely. Municipal bonds are held mostly by individuals, who own about two thirds of US municipal bonds, directly or through mutual funds. Most state and local government debt is long term, and does not rely on short term borrowing the way a Lehman Brothers did in the recent financial crisis. The states can raise revenues, as Illinois did recently. With the economy improving state tax revenues were up 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to a year earlier, according to preliminary data from the Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government, Albany, New York. That said, the following reasons show that life will be difficult and painful for states and local governments. State budget gaps total at least $125 billion, as they look to the coming fiscal year, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. And no federal help is in the works, as it was in 2009. Far less of newly issued muni-bonds are insured today - 6% compared to 57% in 2005- according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Insurers are still recovering from losses in the recent financial crisis. A massive supply of new bonds has depressed the market just as Dec 31 expiration of a federal program, Build America Bonds, which provided help to states that were borrowing. Investors withdrew $23.6 billion from muni-bonds mutual funds since November, 2010. Moody's Investor's service has listed the states that will need to issue bonds to fund current operations. California will borrow billions to cover cash flow needs, and Illinois is considering an $8.75 billion 'debt restructuring bond' to pay past due bills, and a $3.75 billon bond for contributions to its pension system. Because banks have only 1.3% of assets in muni-bonds any defaults will not affect their ability to lend. But the impact will be felt in the US economy and overseas. In the event there was a default, some analysts believe the federal government would find it hard to say no when the federal government said yes to AIG....

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C. Raja Mohan says in The Indian Express that India needs to look at the big picture of modernization in a new world for world trade in which the US is reindustrializing, Europe is reindustrializing, and India is on the road to modernization by 2040 over the next 15 years. All three processes are happening at the same time. 

The old order of world trade destroyed the industrial base of the US and Europe, it also neglected India's modernization, happening with the unwitting cooperation and connivance of the business interests of the US and Europe. It will do little for India. India must also change it's industrial structure and modernization effort to fit into this new world and bring it's strengths to build a new world in which the US, EU and India modernize their economies, manufacturing base, and infrastructure in a win-win for all sides.

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Canada's Carney gives up on USMCA renegotiated deal with US as he makes deal with China Jan 2026. No date is set for USMCA renegotiation. Carney stepped up the criticism of the US and suggested middle powers find their way by makiing deals of their own. This has drawn criticism from DJT, Luttnick and Scott Bessent, the Commerce Secretary and Treasury Secretary. Canada's economy has some fragile points in its dependence on the US and this may not be the wise course of action for Canada at this time. Germany, Italy, are meeting on February 12 and Europe may follow a different course of action of working with the US, India is close to a trade deal, so that Carney's and other remarks about going to partner with China at a gathering as isolated as Davos is from the real world may be very counterproductive.

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German response to Greenland tariff is muted- "appropriate response at appropriate time" realizing that Denmark and Nordic countries not Poland, Austria, Hungary, Russia, China, and other countries are concerned about Greenland, and after action by Denmark's government that "is going nowhere" in the words of DJT.  Denmark has misrepresented the facts and US history in relation to Greenland's exploration by US Navy and Adm. Perry in 1890's is ignored, Denmarks colonial power history is left out which is how it acquired Greenland in 1813 in Treaty of Kiel with Sweden in exchange of territory during Napoleonic Wars. Much of this can easily be researched and it is baffling that the Danish socialist party government is bringing NATO into this as it has to do with security of the eastern seaboard of the US, a concern since the early days of the founding of the Republic of the US since 1820's.

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This WSJ report points out that upto this point the US volatility index in 2024 has been very low. The drop in the US stock market on August 5, started with the effects of monetary tightening in Japan and its effect on the market in the US. Because of this the underlying situation in the US, the underlying low volatility has not changed.

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Sebarros of the WSJ takes a closer look at the key words used by U.S. president Trump in rallies in city after city during the 2016 election campaign and in the months before the Congressional elections in 2018. Analysis by the WSJ counted the unique two word phrases, how often Trump highlighted topics, the content of audience respones in 48 post election rally speeches through Oct 27.  In 2018 the words "tax cuts,"fake news," and "health care," appeared more often than in 2017 after the Republican party's win in passing a tax cut. Other phrases used frequently were "law enforcement," "North Korea," and "Supreme Court" after the win in nominating Judge Kavanaugh. The use of the 2 word phrases are carefully done. The words "fake news" were not used during sensitive periods such as when pipe bombs were mailed to government offices, yet resumed few weeks later. His own name is the seventh most used word, even for someone such as Mr. Trump, showing that behind the impromptu remarks there is a carefully worded effort to steer voters in a particular direction with carefully developed appeals. Another example is when the Dow Jones averages were reaching new highs in September and October Mr. Trump highlighted the stock market growth, and then when volatility increased by November said much less on this topic. Graphs by Jessica Wang provide a good look at how frequently and in what manner Mr. Trump has continued his unique campaigning style before the 2018 Congressional elections, with two word appeals to already receptive audiences. The audience participation is a singular feature and the words "U.S.A." were used in 85% of the rallies with "Build that Wall" at 65% as the next most frequent.  Much of it is repetitive in city after city and the WSJ analysis shows that the major television networks including Fox News are not covering the speeches from beginning to end as they did before, only C-Span public network does. To receptive audiences in carefully scripted surroundings, including larger ones such as the Toyota Center Houston, where larger numbers of supporters worried about immigration, health care, trade, and other issues can come together, president Trump has rallied core supporters with this kind of appeal. ...

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Under IMF and US presssure S. Korea's government took tough steps to resolve its banking crisis in 1997. The government closed or restructured 12 of the 32 largest banks and put in $60 billion to write off bad loans and replenish cash reserves of remaining banks, says Prof. Eichengreen. The Korea Asset Management Corporation, a public fund, bought about two-thirds of the problem loans on the bank's books, to free up capital for new loans. This was also done in a compressed period of time under US pressure. In the US because of heavy lobbying influence in Washington and with the Bush and Obama administrations, and the lack of any external pressures such as S. Korea experienced, the banking industry has not undergone a serious restructuring. Volcker recommended reforms have actually been watered down. The difference in the two approaches is striking. S. Korea had the advantage of being able to rebound with exports to a growing US and Europe during that period. A serious restructuring of the banking industry was the first step, something that has not taken place in the US. And there is a failure to cleanup the problem of mortgage backed securities in the US financial system. ...

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European stock markets outperformed the DJIA and the S&P 500 in the U.S. in 2015. Stoxx Europe 600 went up by 7.3%, France's CAC 40 up 9.5%, Germany's DAX up 6.9% excluding dividends. In the early part of the year the DAX went up 20% before being affected by the worries over China and the VW emissions scandal. Italy's FTSE MIB up 13%. Britain's FTSE down 4.45% in 2015 being affected by declines in commodity producers. Experts still see 2016 as a good year for European stock markets, as conditions remain much the same as in 2015 with support from the European Central Bank and eurozone economic recovery in southern Europe.

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The State Department concluded in its studies in August 2011 that the TransCanada Keystone XL pipeline can be operated without causing environmental damage, if operated under strict regulations. A round of public hearings organized by the State Department along the pipeline route from rural Montana to Nebraska and Texas has brought out both supporters and people fearing a spill. U.S. Senators in Nebraska have called for a rerouting out of concerns about the Ogallala Aquifier that lies under the Great Plains. Rural states like Montana see the jobs issue as crucial. Others including Debra Medina, a former candidate for Texas Governor, expressed fears at a rally in Austin that the property rights of landowners would not be respected.

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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The IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, pointed to the urgent need to recapitalize European banks in September 2011. European banks face potential losses of 120 billion euros for Belgium, Spain and Italy, 60 billion euros for Greece, 20 billion euros for Ireland and Portugal, and 100 billion euros for other banking exposure, for a total of 300 billion euros, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the absence of recapitalization there could be further damage to EU economies from restricted lending by banks. IMF estimates show that deteriorating credit conditions could damage growth in the eurozone countries by 3.5 percentage points, and in the U.S. by 2.2 percentage points, creating another recession.

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In total this is a 50% tax on Indian imports to the US with DJT executive order of  August 6, 2025, 25% baseline for trade and 25% for Indian buying of 2 million barrels a day of Russian oil. US and EU say this money s fueling the Ukraine war, along with higher purchases than this by China from Russia, which add to Russian oil revenues and higher oil production. The order takes effect in 21 days so that India has time to come up with an agreement with the US. The Swiss also are scrambling to get an agreement, hit with 30% tariff.

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Many of the problems in Minnesota came from the tactics employed by a Border patrol agent Bovino who took over Minnesota immigration enforcement in the state. He was removed by the Border head Tom Homan who said some of the tactics used were not what ICE normally has used in the past. Homan has taken over complete control of the operations for immigration enforcement in Minnesota. Todd Lyons (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) RodneyScott (Border Patrol CBP) Joe Edlow Citizenship and Immigration Services made an appearance in US House of Representatives hearings held by the Homeland Security Committee. The immigration enforcement in California, and other states, and law enforcement in Washington DC and Nashville did not meet any of the confrontations that happened in Minnesota. Democrats and Republicans are negotiating ways to come up with law enforcement that does not disturb entire neighborhoods and can be conducted peacefully.

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Norwegian skier Lie McGrath with father US alpine skierand Norwegian mother on Vermont ski team, does something unusual in the Olympics. After leading 0.59 seconds and in a good position for first in downhill skiing in slalom he goes all out but makes one error missing a tightly set gate, then decides to throw his poles, teke off his skiis and go into the woods. He says-

"I thought I would get some peace and quiet, which I didn’t because photographers and police found me out in the woods. I just needed some time for myself.”

McGrath is a 5 time World Cup winner in slalom. He had lost his grandfather just at the start of the games and was distraught. He just decided this was it after the slight error. The Gold, Silver or Bronze medal meant little by that time.

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VW's Scout Motors plans in 2026 to sell direct to buyers. A Scout Motors VP says of VW's plans- “We have heard over and over again, ‘Please give me an alternative. You see that there is very little trust in auto dealers today.”  Dealers have lobbied to have the laws in US set so that no one else but dealers can sell cars. Yet this may be becoming an outdated way to sell cars if car makers can provide good service over 10 years to buyers and make the whole process of buying and owning a car a pleasant experience for owners. It is far from that today and the experience is not one that is consistent in quality and have ease of use as the experience varies with each dealer and can change with a single dealer over time, quality is not assured.

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Kristi Noem's handling of the situation in Venezuela defeated the overall purpose of correcting unlimited migration and open borders with use of aggressive approach in Minnesota that was not consistent with standards set at Homeland Security. It took a great deal of effort from Tom Homan, head of the overall effort on migration control and border security to restore public confidence in immigration approach in Minnesota. The US president was ill served by the use of these aggressive tactics which did not have support even from many Republicans in Congress. The president had showed his dissatisfaction at this and has now moved to correct this by bringing in Markwayne Mullin whom he called "highly respected"  from Oklahoma, who can talk to all sides as the immigration actions take place to get the largest degree of support from the American people along with Tom Homan in many diverse and different states in the Nation.

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India received $135 billion in remittances in 2024-25 from the 18.5 million Indian diaspora, of which 10 million live in the Middle East region sending $51 billion a year. This finances the merchandise trade deficit.  In UAE alone there are 247,000 Indian students and immigrant labor is the main labor supply in the Gulf kingdoms.  Crude oil of 25-30 million barrels is on the seas as inventory to which India has access making crude oil supplies not an issue for the short term. Indian refinery production for export can also be adjusted if needed. India has received a 100 day exemption to import Russian oil from the US since the Gulf war began easing concerns for crude oil supplies. Situation for LPG is more complicated. India has used the Chabahar port to ship supplies of aid to Afghanistan on an overland route which will not operate till the tensions ease. 

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Washington Post Editorial Board on the importance of federal workforce being based on performance and laying off or force reduction of  underperforming workers, not protecting workers with seniority. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) of the US government has taken a sensible action, says The Post in proposing to federal agencies that they layoff low performers first. Under the Biden administration the longest serving employees often the highest paid were not laid off, even if they were not productive. Agencies reduced workforce based on a complicated formula that heavily weighted seniority. The new rule will give performance the largest weighting. As OPM puts it: “By elevating performance in the order of retention, the employees who are best contributing to the mission will be more likely to be retained during restructuring.” Department of Government Efficiency government cuts were for 90% of the 2025 cuts due to voluntary programs such as buyouts, says The Post.  ...

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Securing transparency in financial receipts and their use by Labor Unions is a battle being fought since the Days when Robert Kennedy called this "the Enemy Within," and the Nation was shocked by the corruption in the Labor Unions. Since the days of Tammany Hall and Teddy Roosevelt's effort to clean up the system in the 1890's this is a forever battle. US auto unions benefitted from recent changes as old labor bosses were turned out and free and fair elections took place. The Washington Post says the added requirements for trade unions to file detailed disclosure of how they use funds is necessary and a good change made by the current Labor Secretary. Putting these disclosure forms online is also a good step as all workers can see where the money is going. The Post says no union boss should be afraid of more sunshine.

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Modi BJP Win in West Bengal 2026- full speech on the future of Bengal, India, Indian democracy, India's modernization - May 4, 2026. For the first time most of India is now being led by state and federal governments that are aligned for rapid modernization, rapid development of infrastructure, industry and the economy. Madras, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Vizag, Kolkata, Bhubaneshwar, Delhi, Noida, Bhopal, Dehra Dun, Srinagar,most of India's cities and urban areas, and the rural heartland of India all aligned for accelerated development under a Master Plan for the economy for the next two decades. This will close the gap with China to make India the third largest economy in the world, and a key support for the United States and the European Union. Seen through this lens many of todays reports and concerns fade into significance. The US and the European Union are not alone- they have the support of 2 billion people of India, and Indonesia and adjoining regions.

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FIFA's $3 billion in revenue from ticket sales is 3 times what it was in Qatar, prices per game are double that in Qatar. What's going on? FIFIA is being accused of price gouging practices by the Attorney Generals of New Jersey and New York. Six games including the finals are to be played in the NY-NJ area. FIFA's Infantino says it will use $11 billion in soccer revenues (90% of tickets sold for the World Cup in the US/Mexico) for this nonprofit to do soccer projects around the world.  Fans are not happy with the way FIFA is extracting higher prices to put visiting the game beyond the reach of ordinary households. Shouldn't making  it possible to watch the game for ordinary income soccer fans also be part of FIFA's responsibility- instead of taking the opportunities for visiting soccer fields away from ordinary income people. 

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Tax cuts initiated by the Bush administration and to a smaller degree by the Obama administration account for $6.3 trillon of the $10 trillion deficit in 2011. This is about half the $12.7 trillion gap between the $2.3 trillion surplus predicted by the CBO a decade ago for the year 2011 and the current deficit of $10.4 trillon. Two wars and higher defense spending add another $2 trillion. The Stimulus added $700 billon. The Prescription Drug Benefit for seniors $272 billion. This is based on new analysis of CBO data by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. The record shows unrestrained spending by both parties has led to the current mess. Pete Domenici who chaired the Senate Budget Committee at the time of the first tax cuts in 2001 says "in the end the floodgates were opened." This also shows how quickly the situation can change if sound fiscal practices are abandoned. Two wars were financed entirely with borrowed money for the first time in U.S. history.

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Spain and Italy's 10 year government bonds yield declined to 3.2% in April 2014, compared to 2.68% on U.S. 10 year government bonds and 1.56% for German 10 year bonds. This is a far cry from the dark days of 2012 when these yields for Italy and Spain hovered at 7-8%. Italian bonds reached a peak in Nov. 2011 of 7.408% and yields declined to 3.221% on April 8, 2014, according to Tradeweb. Spain's bonds reached a peak of 7.637% in July 2012 and declined to 3.204% on April 8, 2014.

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A large blackout leaves Venezuela's capital Caracas and parts of the country in complete darkness. The blackout was the result of problems at the El Guri hydroelectric dam in eastern Venezuela. Venezuela's power grid has deteriorated rapidly from lack of investment, corruption leading to siphoning off of funds for investment in new turbines and technology, and mismanagement with the power company run by people with little experience in power generation. Initially Electricidad de Caracas was  bought by AES Corporation in the U.S. in 2000, then nationalized by president Hugo Chavez in 2007. The lack of investment is also a result of policies that subsidize power making it practically free, just as in the case of gasoline. 70% of Venezuela's electricity comes from El Guri hydroelectric dam. Hyper inflation estimated at an astounding 1 million percent is ruining Venezuela's economy leading to 3 million refugees into neighboring Colombia and other countries. ...

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A big win for the US and a win-win for the European Union in the sense that it brings stability to the trade relationship. For the US it brings a level playing field in world trade that had suffered fo far too long from unfair advantages taken by Japan, Canada, European Union and other nations, in addition to the serious distortions of the world trade system with China's state version of capitalism financing an export model. So the first step was to straighten out the situation with partners and allies the US has supported in the past 75 years. US European Union Trade Agreement is reached July 27, 2025, at meeting between Von Der Leyen of Eu and DJT of the US in Scotland. It includes $750 billion EU purchases over 3 years of US oil and gas, LNG, nuclear fuel, semiconductors, etc and $650 billion in investments in US, including military purchases. It puts a 15% tariff on all products from the EU entering the US, replaces the tariff of about 5% under Biden. On Pharmaceuticals it is what the US president decides says Leyen, though for now it is included.  The EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefovic says- “I think that what was most important for us was to make sure we would have this predictability and we would have stability for our businesses." ...