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The Fed's interest rate policies to fight inflation have increased the return on US assets vs overseas emerging market countries such as Brazil and India. US Treasurys now offer 2% return after inflation. This means investors shy away from emerging markets as the extra yield offered by emerging market country bonds is diminishing. This reduces inflow of investment into countries from Turkey to Brazil. Higher rates also increase the value of the dollar vs other currencies including that of China and India, Brazil, Mexico. This means it is costlier for other countries to buy goods priced in dollars (India, Mexico)  or service dollar denominated debts (Argentina or Turkey). Where countries had raised rates to fight inflation this means central banks have less room to cut rates to stimulate their economies. This also happens as China's growth of 5% in 2023 as it has high debt and little room for stimulus measures, reduces any growth in countries in Latin America or Africa that export commodities from copper and iron to other materials. ...

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Which may not be a bad thing as it would keep inflation in check and shift to a new way of handling the economy with higher employment and wages and moderate to low inflation. The US may be facing inflation on a bumpy path to 2% or more likely stay near 3%. The 2% target of the Fed was from an earlier era when wages were stuck for most factory workers. The increase in wages was needed so that workers could improve their standard of living that was being eroded and after years of stagnant wages. Inflation at around 3% may be where inflation would be in the current environment. This also means higher interest rates on savings which form the most important source of income next to social security for retirees and older workers with larger savings. This also provides an incentive to younger workers to save that did not exist when interest rates were brought to zero to tackle recurring financial crises caused by banks and external events.

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HBO may be capitalizing on cultural portrayals of unethical world of finance for successful television shows that do little to change the culture in America. During the 2009 financial crisis decade many such shows were seen, yet after Big Pharma and Finance, a new player Tech monopolies joined the list of unethical behavior, new technologies continue to operate without government setting the rules for fair play and level playing field essential for capital and labor to function in a modern economy- rules for capital and rules for labor set by "serious" public servants not revolving door public servants who finish their careers in the same banks, pharma or tech company monopolies. Bothe houses of Congress are then captured by the Big Pharma, Finance, and Tech monopolies, resulting in "Capture Capitalism" that has existed in different forms and yet cleaned up every 50-75 years since 1750, Adam Smith's fight against the monopolies of the East India Companies of Britain, Holland and Denmark. ...

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In a major move president Biden backs suspending IP protection for Covid vaccines, therapeutics and tests. In fall 2020 India and South Africa submitted a resolution to WTO to suspend IP protection for Covid vaccines, therapeutics and tests, From the Indian perspective this decision comes a bit late when India has already vaccinated over 1 billion people using the Astra Zeneca Oxford vaccine. The Oxford vaccine was made available to Indian manufacturing companies to make locally in a way the could be done at low cost to meet needs of over 1 billion people in India. From the perspective of pharmaceutical companies this is giving away technology even if this was a public health emergency, as shown in this editorial from WSJ.

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The Burning Glass Institute Tech Cities rankings are based on Cutting Edge Skill workers in the area and on Momentum rankings. Both are shown here in this WSJ report. Seattle Tacoma ranks at the top in the cutting edge skill workers in the US. Cutting edge skills are related to cloud and serverless computing, machine learning, AI architecture and cybersecurity operations. In midsize cities Pro-Urem Utah and Salt Lake City, Ann Arbor Michigan, Rochester New York, Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Seattle has the largest concentration of tech workers about 13% of the US total.

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The Chinese negotiating team after the changes in the organization at the senior ranks of the government under Jinping lacks the experience in trade matters of the U.S. team led by Robert Lighthizer. Liu He who leads China's negotiating team is an economist who has the confidence of president Xi Jinping. Lighthizer is a veteran of trade negotiations going back to negotiations he held with the Japanese under the Reagan administration.

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The peace plan calls for the establishment of an International Stabilization Force. IDF, Israel Defense Forces would hand over parts of Gaza to the ISF made up from troops from Egypt and possibly Jordan, and other countries that would along with the US be responsible for demilitarizing Gaza removing tunnels and munitions and weapons so that it no longer poses a threat. An Economic Plan supported by the Saudis, UAE and the US would step in to rebuild Gaza for the benefit of the people of Gaza. No militant group would be allowed, complete demilitarization assured, the focus would be on economic develoipment for the area and other areas of Palestinian territory in West Bank. 

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Straits of Hormuz 21 miles wide at its narrowest point in the Gulf where Iran faces Oman and Saudi Arabia.  Hormuz waterway that carries 90% of Iranian oil exports to China, 82% of all Asian oil imports, could be disrupted but it is very unlikely because of the $67 billion in oil exports from Iran according to its central bank, 90% of these oil exports going through Hormuz waterway go to China. It would be to unfund it's own oil based economy and affect China not the US or Germany. Germany gets most of its oil supplies from Norway, US and other sources, US is self sufficient after shale oil production surge.

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Sophie Landrin's Le Monde report on Sri Lanka Ditwah cyclone devastation December 9 2025. Her report with pictures of the destruction wrought by the cyclone show parts of the Kandy region in the mountainous uplands in the central part of Sri Lanka, including the University of Peradeniya. There was no warning when the cyclone hit with 10,000 of 16,000 student on the campus. This is the worst cyclone to hit Sri Lanka in the last hundred years. Sri Lanka is a island nation that is Buddhist located at southern tip of India. It has been hit by a civil war, financial crisis with no central bank reserves, the pandemic, and now the cyclone. 

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At the height of the market a year ago Citigroup acquired Nikko Cordial for 1.6 trillion yen ($17.7 billion). Now in a reversal of an earlier decision, after announcing a loss of $8.3 billion on Jan 16, 2009 for 4th quarter 2008, Citigroup will consider Nikko Cordial a non-core asset, meaning that it would be sold if a buyer can be found in Japan. Japanese banks are relatively healthy and there are propects for finding a buyer there.

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Even with the housing industry decline in Spain the country is not expected to be hit with a serious economic dowturn as overall housing debt is relatively low and banks are still healthy.

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Half of the 109 economists and housing analysts polled in October 2010 by MacroMarkets LLC, expect home prices to bottom in 2011, and half don't expect home prices to bottom till 2012. Backing this up is growing inventory in many markets. The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of housing market conditions in 28 major metropolitan areas showed inventories of unsold homes were up in 19 markets at the end of 3rd quarter 2010, compared to the prior year. The largest increases were in California- in Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Diego. Only parts of Texas, and Washington D.C, and some other areas which have shown decent job growth are an exception. In the Realtor's Report, median home price fell 2.4% to $171,700 in September 2010 from a year earlier. This data does not include the suspension of foreclosures due to title defects, which will further dampen prospects of a recovery in housing. This will affect New Jersey, Florida and other "judicial" states, where the banks must complete foreclosures through court. At the current sales pace it would take 10.7 months to sell the 4.04 million home inventory of unsold homes, according to the recent NAR report. Six to eight months is considered normal. This does not reflect the "shadow" inventory of homes in some stage of foreclosure, which is estimated at around 4 million, creating a problem that even current low rates for a fixed rate mortgage of 4.21% cannot solve....

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Incredible story of a Denmark software company run by a 41 year old bodybuilder Stein Bagger, who called it IT Factory. The company, its software deals, everything about it including Stein Bagger's PhD was phony, and in the end outrageously unbelievable that something like this could be allowed to happen. How gullible can people get? This fellow was named Ernst and Young Entrepreneur of the year with a Danish minister present at an event in Copenhagen, just when he was surrendering to police in Los Angeles. Banks and IBM and other firms lost $182 in total as this fellow borrowed from banks to record fake deals of purchases by phony customers from his company.

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The NYT editorial says the Obama foreclosure plan was flawed from the start. It lacked teeth to make banks take up foreclosure reduction. It isn't enough to reduce payments as people who have lost jobs cannot afford to make payments. With unemployment rising another 2.4 million homes will go into foreclosure according to some estimates. The slow roll out of foreclosure plans by banks has aggravated the situation, and at this time those who lost jobs are the homeowners not getting help from the government. This is a serious error on the part of the Obama administration. See the links to Martin Feldstein, who early on in 2008 suggested a comprehensive solution to the foreclosure crisis.

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Russia's largest companies in metals like nickel, iron ore and aluminium, may end up in state control by the end of the year as the government is loaning money to these companies. These companies owe billions of dollars to state controlled banks and foreign banks and are heavily in debt. This would be a reversal of something that started with the loans for shares under which tycoons like Potanin got control of state assets in metals companies, in exchange for loans to the state. A company that will combine the assets of Norilsk Nickel, UC Rusal, and OAO Metalloinvest is being formed, with the state taking alarge minority stake at the initial stage.

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New Yok has a mandatory foreclosure mediation program, with a 3rd party mediator working with the homeowner and the bank to achieve a loan modification. Of the 42,256 mortgages in New York approaching foreclosure since Jan 1, 2010, 75% went into the mediation process. Of this 80% achieved permanent modifications. In Connecticut 70% of 29,000 mortgages went into mediation with over 60% achieving permanent modifications for the same period. Where the mediation was optional as in New Jersey, only 20% of 50,713 mortgages went into mediation. In Nevada, another optional state, only 11% of 62,593 mortgages went into mediation. Mediation rates rocket when it is mandatory. One expert says that this is because mandatory mediation brings accountability and humanizes the process. By reducing the interest rate and making for lower payments the borrower stays in the home, and the bank continues to get its lower but consistent income stream compared to a default in payments. Today 20 states offer some form of mediation but only 2 states and 2 cities make it mandatory. This is happening in the disturbing context of a decline in troubled homeowners receiving assistance or modifications. About 470,000 homeowners received loan assistance in the 3rd quarter, down 17% from the second quarter, and down 32% from the same quarter a year earlier. The paradox is that one way to stimulate the economy that is not being tried is to mitigate losses in the housing market for homeowners and lenders. Spain's financial sector is doing modifications routinely and this is one way it is softening the impact of losses from the housing market. See Spain and residential mortgages....

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Foley cites a recent survey by the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences shown in the South China Morning Post. This survey shows 96% of respondents "resenting the rich." In 2007, the Asian Development Bank estimated the Gini coefficient for China at 0.47%, up from 0.28% in 1983, same as Sweden, Japan and Germany. Now its closer to Argentina and Mexico. This is happening as less than 70% of graduates have jobs. And a peculiar situation is occurring in China where the retail prices are not increasing but prices of real estate and of commodities like iron ore and oil are high. There is too much liquidity with $1.5 trillion of governmet manadated bank lending and inflation is rising creating a speculative bubble in stock and real estate. And there are protectionist pressures with the USA sensing that cheap imports subsidized by artificially low currency in China is worsening America's trade deficit.

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With inflation running at 6.7% in Russia, the central bank has decided not to increase interest rates following the U.S. Fed's bond purchase tapering decision in Jan 2014. The ruble declined by 6% in Jan 2014 and 15% for the last year. With the economy slowing the central bank finds it difficult to raise interest rates, and with inflation the bank has less flexibility to lower rates and increase credit availability. The ruble's lower value is a result of a shrinking current account surplus, with the added effect of capital flight from markets seen as riskier by investors. Currency collapse is a sensitive issue for many Russians after the 1997 crisis and collapse of the ruble. Central bank chief Ms. Nabiullina was on television explaining the decline to ordinary Russians, saying- " It's not that the ruble is weakening but the dollar and the euro are rising in price." Economists say the ruble's weakening won't add as much to inflation as slowing demand will make it harder for retail chains to raise prices....

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The Economist calls for more attention to efforts to promote growth in Europe and the U.S. in 2011. It describes as nonsense the policy of the European Central Bank to increase interest rates at a time when most European economies are struggling to increase growth. And more so when the ECB is busy buying Spanish and Italian bonds to support Spain and Italy.

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Bolivia's economy showed 6.5% growth in 2013 and the portion of the people in extreme poverty has dropped from 38% in 2005 to 24% in 2013. Policies of president Morales are winning praise for being prudent from the IMF and the World Bank. A greater share of the revenues from natural gas production and high natural gas prices, Bolivia's main export products, has enabled the government to build international reserves to $14 billion. This is half the country's GDP, and the highest ratio of reserves to GDP in the world. Morales has adopted socialist policies and at the same time provided fiscally responsible management, showing the two are not inconsistent and can be adapted to local conditions to build a middle class and improve living conditions.

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India's inflation rate declined to 4.4% in Nov. 2014 and 5% in Dec. 2014. Price pressures are moderating throughout the economy. With lower oil prices in 2015 and long term trend for lower prices the outlook has improved for controlling inflation. The central bank governor Rajan cut rates by one quarter of a percentage point in Jan. 2015 and indicated further rate cuts are ahead to boost economic growth. The financial markets reflect a 1% decline in interest rates and the stock markets were up 2% in Jan. 2015

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The Turkish lira drops sharply on November 23, by 18%. This is likely to worsen inflation that is already at 20% in 2021. This also makes it harder for businesses to pay off foreign currency debt. President Erdogan is following an unconventional policy of cutting interest rates when the currency value is declining. The Turkish central bank is cutting its key policy interest rate. Growth and investment are expected to be affected as foreign investors move away from Turkey. 

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Fed officials at the US central bank say they are looking t getting to 4% from the current 2.5% for the federal funds rate. A third increase of 0.75% in interest rates is expected for 2022 from the Fed. Fed chairman Powell intends to keep inflation in check. Higher interest rates in the US is also good for savers and provides more stable sources of income for Americans, creating a new element of stability that was missing.