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Reminders of the 6th of May, 2010, when sentiment swung the other way and the Dow Jones averages dropped by 900 points.

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Corio NV, a Dutch shopping centres company, has invested 600 million euros in Turkey after entering that market in 2005, with a strategy of introducing modern shopping centres to Turkish consumers. It has concentrated on secondary locations outside of Ankara and Istanbul, and encountered different cultural pattern of consumers there; with Turkish women in these cities not doing much driving, and mostly male shoppers. And women in these secondary cities do not buy the same forward fashion as women in Istanbul or Ankara. The Turkish real estate market and the economy is also relatively weak, and Corio is expected to take a loss of 15% on its investments since 2005, according to analysts. This also shows how markets in the bigger cities in emerging markets do not reflect life in the secondary cities. And competition is already intense in the bigger cities. Corio had to provide transportation to help women get to the malls.

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BMW lags Mercedes in return on sales its 6% vs Mercedes 8%. And it faces higher costs in meeting new EU emissions standards.Mercedes is doing a lot better now that it has gotten rid of the Chrysler distraction. One way is to develop new hybrid and other fuel economy and lower emissions technology in alliance with Daimler. Its developing a new hybrid engine with Daimler and GM of which a model was shown at the Frankfurt Auto Show. Improving profitability to have an 8%-10% return on sales by 2012 is the goal of BMW and it hopes to achieve this with a plan to create costs savings of 6 billion euros in a five yer plan announced by CEO Reithofer. in September 2007. This will mean thousands of layoffs and will mean that it will affect those with temporary contracts first and will include some buyouts also. BMW sales are growing and could reach 1.8 million by 2012.

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JD Powers survey has lowered its annual sales rate to less than 15 million vehicles going down to 14.8 millon annual sales rate in ths spring 2008. GM and Ford are still looking at sales rate much above 15 million. What if the credit squeeze, oil prices and the recession lower sales to below Powers surveys? GM and Ford now have more flexibility to cut production with their new UAW agreements and this should helpreduce production volume. Also the auto companies have offered buyouts to every unionized employee. Expect further production cuts, as the auto companies are now going in the direction of cutting production rather than flooding the market with incentives. Also the pace of restructuring is likely to accelerate as the economy deriorates in 2008 and beyond. Carefully considering all the information available upto this point in Glinfo it does not appear that things will improve by yearend 2008 as some are expecting, hoping against hope.

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The yuan has risen 14.5% against the yuan in the last 4 months, according to the Chinese Commerce ministry. Loosening the Chinese currency's peg to the dollar will increase the value of the renminbi even further. And with further declines in the euro expected this would seriously affect Chinese exporters to Europe. This also makes European goods more competitive than American goods in the Chinese market putting the Obama's administration's goal of doubling exports further at risk. The Shanghai stock index declined by 5.1% on Monday May 17, 2010, reflecting these concerns. The Chinese government continues to intervene in currency markets and the renminbi is now at 6.827 renminbi to the dollar.

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Prince Salman's efforts to launch an IPO of Saudi Arabian National Oil Company faces resistance from Saudi bureaucrats. Prince Salman wants to reduce the country's dependence on oil revenue, and hoped to use the IPO generated $100 billion to make investments in other industries. Saudi technocrats see risks in the plan- as costing consumers billions of dollars in higher gasoline prices, legal risks and public scrutiny. The IPO has been pushed back to 2021. Large new investments such as solar generation hub also face passive resistance in the bureaucracy. New investments policies have led to a Saudi recession in 2017, and reduced investment and consumer spending. Prince Salman sees it differently, once telling Theresa May of Britain that even if he got 50 of the 100 things he wanted done, that would be 50 not done otherwise. Salman has a disdain for the bureaucracy and has tight control over the country. He has led popular social changes such as letting women drive and taking away the power of religious police to make arrests. The Economy Minister has slowed down a plan to sell state assets such as government owned hospitals,airports, because conditions are not ideal. A plan to invest $7 billion in Uber was shelved. Aramco chairman Mr. Falih has reduced the size of investmetns including for the solar energy generation project. A plan to have ARAMCO listed on the New York Stock Exchange preferred by Prince Salman has been changed with advisers suggesting the London Stock Exchange as a place with lower risks of law suits under U.S. tort laws. Saudi executives at ARAMCO also pointed out that to reach the $2 trillion valuation that the Prince has in mind for ARAMCO the company would have to sell gasoline to Saudis at market rates, tripling oil prices in the kingdom -costing consumers $98 billion. The advisers believe it is more prudent financially to raise debt. Under that plan ARAMCO could raise debt to buy the Public Investment Fund's (PIF) 70% stake in state owned chemicals company Saudi Basic Industries Corp. which would infuse PIF with $70 billion, almost as much as generated by a IPO for ARAMCO. On solar energy Mr. Falih lowered the plan from 1500 gigawatts to 200 at a cost of $200 billion. Under a new plan this is at 60 gigawatts from solar and wind with 70% produced by the Public Investment Fund, the state's investment fund.   ...

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The US economy is in a far healthier place and the country is a better place today because of direct government aid to people, including stimulus checks deposited directly into bank accounts. Similar action took place in India, Britain, European Union countries with deposits of aid made directly to people's accounts. As a result Europe and India are in a much better place today.

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Trudeau's agenda for Canada in 2020 includes addressing the widening social gaps in society. Plans include renewed focus on social policy, increasing child care spaces, and improving care for the elderly. Trudeau says the government can take on more debt to help the economy recover and create jobs. A second wave means more help is needed for the economy and people struggling on low incomes. The second wave is here in Canada as cases increased from 5000 a day to 8000 this week from the prior week.

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Yale University's Robert Shiller quotes Thomas Jefferson from a letter written in 1820, where he said about the passions in the North and South about extending of slavery to the Missouri territory: "this momentous question, like a fire bell in the night, awakened and filled me with terror." He says there are serious consequences of letting longterm unemployment continue. He cites a proposal by Edmund Phelps, Nobel prize winner in economics from Columbia University, which would have the government give a subsidy of $4.50 an hour for the lowest paid workers, with declining amounts till they earn $15 an hour. This proposal would cost about $150 billion and be aimed at reducing income inequality and making these lower paid jobs attractive. Other proposals for reducing unemployment are to use work-sharing on a national basis with government help.

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Note this comment by the head of the U.S. National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration in the Bush Administration. NHTSA Administrator Jackie Glassman says the average mileage for the fleet today is 30 miles per gallon and raising the current standard of 27.5 mpg for an automakers passenger fleet by 2.5 mpg won't put much pressure on automakers. The Bush administration- and the prior Clinton administration- has not committed to making major improvements to the national mileage standards, with the current standards of 27.5 mpg not having changed since 1990! Glassman says the NHTSA starts with the manufacturers product plans and then sees whether it can get additional fuel savings with these plans. This suggests an NHTSA that is more follower to the auto industry rather than a leader in setting the standards that the auto industry then tries to achieve to reduce the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Also note that it takes 2 years for things to change, as it will take months for rule changes, and 18 months have to be given to automakers to implement the new rules. By 2008 the fuel efficiency based on market competition and Toyota focussing on hybrids and higher fuel efficiency across the whole car lines, might well exceed any new standards that are watered down, especially if crude prices hold up. Lawsuits by attorney generals of different states and the Lugar-Obama bipartisan bill pushing the adminsitration to mandate higher standards are intended to put pressure on the Bush administration to come up with new higher standards. The failure of Democrats and Republicans in the Clinton and Bush years to raise standards and require the auto companies to use new technology to meet these standards with government assistance is one of the significant failures. This will affect the prospects for the U.S. economy in the years ahead....

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In just 7 months the Trump administration has a falling apart with business leaders and union leaders on the days following the Charlottesville car attack. Here Richard Trumka gives his reasons in the NYT for withdrawing from the president's Manufacturing Council. He says Trump presented big idea such as infrastructure and fair trade deals but he is not likely to live up to his promises. Only tweaks are expected on NAFTA says Trumka, and labor rights are taking a hit under president Trump. The AFL-CIO was not called to a single meeting by president Trump, says Trumka. He now sees the Trump administration in the same way as other political leaders- filled with broken promises. In the case of the Trump administration he sees working families ending up much worse off. Trumka says a University of Pennsylvania study shows even if a plan for infrastructure comes up the president's budget proposal would sink it- leading to a net loss of $55 billion for highway, water facilities and public transit. Trumka points out the damage to the social safety net as a matter of serious concern- cutting $1.5 trillion from Medicaid, $59 billion from Medicare, $64 billion from Social Security over 10 years. With cuts to construction workers wages, and a 6% cut for government workers. He calls as "morally bankrupt" and bad economic actions the effort for large scale deportation.  He calls the events in Charlottesville and the president's condoning of the violence in Charlottesville by blaming both sides, the last straw for his union. Separately business leaders resigned from two advisory groups. Chase CEO Dimon pointed out that for economic progress the basic consensus in the country must be preserved, and divisive rhetoric can lead to the unraveling of economic progress- the vital link between society, politics and the economy in line with America's ideals being evident to the business community, as well as to labor. ...

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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Bridgewater Associates estimate of the cost of the TARP (Troubled Assets Rescue Program) that Treasury is initiating and should have the legislation in place this week, "could reach $2 trillion". Other problems on the horizon. Psychologically a collapse of additional investment banks like Goldman or Morgan Stanley or of smaller midsize banks could rattle nerves over the next few months. Manhattan College finance professor Charles Geisst says "I don't think Goldman and Morgan Stanley could survive too many rounds of this." And BW says it sees a world without Goldman and Stanley as quite conceivable. Where are problems shifting to in the horizon for 2009? The socalled Alt A loans pose a real problem as default rates there approach 15% and it involves larger loan numbers than subprime, and the default rate is rising on prime mortgages with higher unemployment and weaker economic conditions. So the next area of serious danger to the economy will be the difficult economic conditions from tight credit, declines in consumption spending, declining production and higher unemployment, and defaults on corporate loans. These declines affect Chinese exports and would affect China's ability to take in higher US exports of capital goods and advanced machinery as China's growth rate slows even down to as low as 5% in a global slowdown of consumption and international trade. This is where the attention will turn to as we get into 2009. And riding out the storm will mean riding out these economic conditions after and alongside TARP....

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The lack of reliable statistics and production information for China's steel industry. The World Steel Association says China's steel production went up by 7.5% in April 2011 over the prior year. In 2010 it says China produced 625 million metric tons. These figures are based on information from the China Iron and Steel Association, which represents 75% of steel producers in the country. Because much of the reporting is voluntary many smaller producers do not report their production figures. MEPS, a steel consulting firm in the U.K. , says there is extensive underreporting because of political pressure on inefficient mills to shut down. These mills continue to operate but fail to report production, as a result production may be understated by 45 million tons, according to MEPS. This becomes important because if the Chinese economy slows down much of the steel warehoused in China because of higher taxes on raw steel exports could end up being exported. Inventory levels are higher in China because of the taxes and the storing of steel by mills slated for closure but still operating. This would cause a drop in steel prices on world markets. Steel is different from other commodities in that it is not traded on the London Metals Exchange or other Exchanges. Sales are privately negotiated sales between steel mills and users such as auto plants....

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Spain's economy contracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Spanish central bank. Unemployment reached 23% in January, 2012. For workers under 25 years age the unemployment rate is 48.6%. The new government of prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, plans to pass labor reform legislation to give companies flexibility to hire new workers, lower dismissal costs and make hiring easier. The economic crisis has a larger effect say experts, because of rigid labor laws. This make it easier to layoff workers than adopt alternatives of lower wages, and which make firms hesitant to rehire. One example is higher dismissal costs- the cost of unfair dismissal is 45 days of pay for each year worked, and 20 days for fair dismissal, which is hard to prove under Spanish laws.

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Consumer prices rose 0.4% in June 2013, in early signs that the policies of the Abe administration against deflation are working.

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Michael Getler of the Washington Post gives an indepth look at former West German chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, who succeeded Willy Brandt as chancellor in 1974 till the fall of the SPD government from internal divisions in 1982. This was the period when West Germany emerged as the leading economy in Europe, and pursued policies of improved relations with East Germany (the GDR) under Honecker, and the Soviet Union under Brezhnev, leading to the period of German reunification under his successor Helmut Kohl of the Christian Democrats. Schmidt also pursued very close relations with France under Giscard d'Estaing, setting up the groundwork for what would become the Euro currency and European monetary system. In the years after 1982 Schmidt was active as co-publisher of the Die Zeit newspaper. This account of Schmidt and that period complements Jonathan Kandell's indepth assessment of Schmidt in the NYT. Today's world economic summits of western leaders- especially the critical ones following the 2008 global economic crisis- originated from the meetings Schmidt started in 1975 and broadened in 1979. During that period Germany, France, UK and the U.S. were faced with the global recession after the 1973-74 oil crisis. Here Getler describes Schmidt in terms used by Germans for someone who is action oriented but also overconfident and brushes off other people- the German word "macher." Another German expression "Mr Schmidt Schnauze," as Mr Schmidt the Lip, stuck to Mr. Schmidt for his tendency to offer strong criticism, while being less tolerant of criticism of his own policies and actions....

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Cohn and Monkovic of the NYT show how the shift of blacks, hispanics, and white collar professionals is doing to the demographics in the eastern, coastal and southern states, and how this will impact 2016 and future presidential elections in the U.S. This includes North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and Florida. It means the electoral map may have changed by 2016 and 2020, as the less educated voters in rural areas are balanced by a growing minority and white collar vote in the suburbs and major cities of the South.

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Being linked to the dollar emerging country economies see the effect on their economy of a reduction in interest rates by the Fed. This is clearly evident in the Gulf countries and Middle East where the link has produced a looser monetary policy in a booming economy and only increases inflation which is already high in many countries. China, India and Russia are seeing increasing inflation as their currrencies are linked to the dollar and though a revaluation of their currency can reduce price of imports and lower overall inflation this is not an easy thing to do because in the case of China it increases the price of goods it exports to the US at the very time the US is in a recession.

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This report by NYT's Choe Sang Hun shows in a brief and lucid manner the charges against South Korea's president Park Geun-hye, as the National Assembly votes on a motion to impeach her.  Her close friend and advisor, Ms. Choo Soon-sil, is involved. Ms. Soon-sil is accused by prosecutors of seeking favors from corporations such as Hyundai, and using the help of the president or the administration to secure these favors. This includes contracts for companies and foundations run by Ms. Soon-sil. In the proceedings before the National Assembly business leaders of the nation's largest companies have confirmed that they could not say no because of requests coming from the administration and the presidential office. About $69 million of donations to the foundations were made. The conglomerate Lotte donated $6 million for a sports complex to be built so that Ms. Soon-sil's company Blue K could run it. Prosecutors say these companies feared retaliation or tax investigations if they did not comply with requests from the presidential office. Other charges are about national intelligence and this relates to orders from president Park to an aide to give 47 classified documents to Ms. Choi Soon-sil between 2013 and 2016. Choi had no security clearance and the documents showed who would be appointed to top government positions including national intelligence director. The opposition in the National Assembly says this violates her constitutional obligations. The constitutional guarantees of freedom of the press were violated say opposition leaders because a newspaper's president was fired for covering Ms. Choi's activities. ...

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The Census Bureau reports that 46.2 million Americans were living in poverty in 2010. This is an increase of 2.6 million over 2009. This is the highest number of Americans living in poverty since 1958, when this statistic was first measured. Poverty is defined for 2010 as income at or below $22,314 for family of four. Also relevant is the median household income which went down to $49,445 in 2010, a decline of 2.3% from 2009. The typical household earned less in 2010 than in 1997, in inflation adjusted terms. The Census Bureau reports 16.3% of Americans had no health insurance coverage in 2010, the same as 2009.