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Of 20 pictures of Shinzo Abe shown in this photo gallery in the WSJ the ones by Kashiyama of Abe on his knees at Iwo Jima recovering remains from the battle in World War II, and by Numata of a safety drill with children in Chiba perfecture where he is seen seated on the ground peeking through metal bars with children, are a must see. Shinzo Abe who led Japan through the 2000-2020 period came from a politically privileged family, but went much beyond that- building relationships with leaders such as Narendra Modi in India and nurturing the India relationship in an act of immense foresight, encouraging an independent minded policy yet working with the US, and defending Japan's position in Asia yet continuing to foster the trade relationship with China and seeking better relations with Russia.  Leaders of US, EU, Germany, France, India, Russia and China, personally felt the loss of Abe in the words they chose to describe the loss. India declared a day of national mourning, showing how far Abe had carried Japan's relationship with India and the number of visits he made to India. ...

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A sharp drop in men's college enrollment of 62% between 1959 and 2021 has led to women catching up from being way behind which is a good thing, yet the sheer size of this drop has created a new problem for both men and women as Americans. The college enrollment now is 60% women, 40% men- not a good one by any stretch of the imagination.  It is bound to have serious negative effects on women being able to find college educated men to share life's experiences. Yet more profound and insidious is the danger it poses for America's economic prospects and its leadership role in the world. The Biden administration seeks to correct one part of the problem which is the declining access to a college education because of cost. It wants to provide access to  college education at no cost through community colleges. This is only the first step and is part of the $3.5 trillion dollar plan for workers and families in America. A national consensus is needed on such an important issue before the American people- to make America a place of opportunity for all its people.  ...

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President Xi Jinping to introduce regulation into what was once an essentially unregulated economy, including a housing sector with financial risks built on ever increasing leverage, are expected to slow the economy to 6-7% growth rate. This is seen as acceptable to address the other goals president Xi sees as essential for the long term future of China. China urban is what most people in the US and Europe see. This is only 60% of China. The other 40% is stuck with lower incomes at about a third of urban areas and with few opportunities. Within urban areas there are the people with moderate incomes who are spooked at housing prices and living in small flats, and now with the pandemic there are many more who are unemployed as China lacks an unemployment insurance system like the US. This and Xi's close connections to farmers in Hebei, and other provinces where he has spent time as party secretary, mean he will now give all of China's people an even chance for a better life. Just as in the US with president Biden, president Xi is tackling social and economic problems left after decades of tech driven expansion aggravated income inequality and poverty. ...

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EU leaders, the ECB and the European Financial Stability Facility, in negotiations for a "selective default" for Greece. The ECB is persuaded to accept a selective default, with one option being to protect ECB from losses by the EFSF buying 50 billion euros of Greek bonds at cost price. Another concern of ECB about contagion is being addressed through a statment that this is designed only for Greece because "of its exceptional situation." A draft document under discussion by EU leaders has a plan for cutting the interest rates on Greece's bailout loans from 5.5% to 3.5% and doubling the repayment period to 15 years. EU officials see giving Ireland and Portugal the same interest rates on their bailout loans. The high interest rates and the shorter maturities made earlier plans unworkable. Private investors are encoraged but not required to exchange their old Greek bonds for new bonds with maturities of upto 30 years. Also being discussed is a buyback of Greek bonds at a heavy discount to face value at which they are trading. EFSF will also get new powers to make bailout loans on a precautionary basis. EFSF would also have powers to lend to eurozoe governments to help recapitalize banks and buy back bonds from other countries....

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After years of austerity policies from the Conservative Party, Britain is looking at new ideas to reorganize the economy and society. The 40% of the British vote taken by the Labour Party has given new impetus to think tanks looking at ways to reshape the British economy and society in coming decades. At issue are the effects of austerity in increasing poverty, rising inequality, and fewer protections for working class people.  The new think tanks include Common Wealth which aims at making changes to British business to provide more representation for labour and provide share of ownership to workers in an enterprise. Common Wealth came up with the ideas and policy for the Labour Party's plan to give 10% of ownership equity in large companies to worker owned funds. Mr McDonnell, chief economic policy maker of the Labour Party, has suggested a trial of a universal basic income, which has led to policy ideas and economic framework development from think tanks. A key idea is to frame how these new ideas can be implemented under a future Labour government, now that there is public disillusionment with the Tories under Theresa May.  ...

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GM's relationship with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation is the singlemost important relationship for the company. Its 50-50 joint venture with SAIC has sales volume of 2.6 million vehicles, 30.5 billion dollars in revenue, and earned GM a profit of $1.5 billion in 2011 for operations in the Chinese market. In 2009 just before seeking bankruptcy protection GM gave SAIC 51% ownership in exchange for a $400 million credit line GM used for its Korean operations and $84.5 million. Now that GM has recovered it has sought to restore its 50-50 role in the partnership. In a new agreement reached with SAIC, Shanghai GM will be split in two parts- a sales arm which will book revenues in which SAIC will retain a 51% ownership, and a operating arm in which the old 50-50 partnership is restored. The operating arm is where the budget will be set, product decisions made, hiring done including the next CEO. Under the arrangement made before bankruptcy GM retained a call option to buy back the 1% stake, as long as SAIC was able to book revenue. VW also has a 50-50 partnership with SAIC. Shanghai GM has a 14% share in the Chinese market, with a 41% increase in sales since 2009, making it spectacularly successful for GM. This is the largest market share of any company in the Chinese market, with VW coming in second. GM and SAIC also operate a venture in India. ...

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Plastic water bottle use surged with a shift to single bottle use of bottled water as a preferred option to using sugar drinks and sodas. In the U.S. this use has surged 284% since 1994, with 67% of the bottled water sold not in jugs but in single use convenience type plastic water bottles.  Manufacturers of plastic water bottles have failed to come up with a technology that makes the kind of plastic that can be easily recycled. Danone's bottled water company Evian brand makes about 30% of its plastic water bottles from recycled plastic and no aims at shifting entirely to recycled plastic by 2025.  Images of bottles filling landfills and hurting sealife have led to consumer opposition to their prolific use. Ocean Conservancy says plastic water bottles are behind cigarette butts and food wrappers the thrid most item washing up on shorelines.  Curbs- Cities in Massachusetts along the coastline are banning their use. New York City is banning the sale in parks, beaches, of these bottles. And the European parliament  is backing laws for member states to collect 90% of these bottles for recycling by 2025. Mumbai has banned this year eater being sold in small bottles. The importance of this is now sinking in. ...

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How best to take social security benefits in retirement in 2021 when situations facing a majority of people have changed. Only 6% of people taking retirement are taking it at age 70. Benefits can be as much as 76% higher at age 70 than if taken earlier says this WSJ report.

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The US abortions increased by about 9% from 2017 to 2020 says this report in WSJ, going from 862,000 to 930,000 according to the Guttmacher Institute. Some states expanded Medicaid access to abortions and increased funding, leading to more services being added. Illinois for example had 25% increase which may have included women from Missouri going to Illinois. If the Supreme Court reverses Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 precedent that established the constitutional right to abortion, 25 states would restrict or prevent the access to abortion.

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Loneliness and isolation increases the risk of disease with higher bodily inflammation, and risk of dying. Monthly visits of family and friends can make a big difference. More frequent than that does not give added benefit. The quality of social connectedness is also important - having someone who cares and one trusts. A Gallup poll in 2023 shows 17% of Americans are lonely and one third of people under 30 years 18-30 years are lonely. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy himself talked about how it feels with lack of social connectedness.

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Airbus and Boeing are expected to announce a net increase in orders of 50% in 2010, net of cancellations. Higher airline traffic is one reason, the other reason is that airline leasing companies are coming back in a big way. Lessors account for more than 35% of all orders at Airbus this year, up from 5% last year. At Boeing lessors have placed 21% of the orders, up from 12%. For Airbus and Boeing combined, the 27% of all orders placed by lessors is the highest proportion since 2000, according to Ascend Worldwide. Airbus and Boeing see lessors as more reliable buyers than airlines which are locked into their routes. Leasing companies are benefitting from funding by private equity, investment funds and commercial banks, which have taken up more than $18 billion in equity and debt issued by airplane lessors, according to Gary Liebowitz, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities. Many lessors are yielding 10%, far above what can be gained in other sectors. Banks are skittish about lending to airlines, but see lessors as less risky. Airlines need planes, but banks have restricted lending to airlines. Stricter financial regulations and higher borrowing costs for banks have reduced lending to all but the strongest airlines, says Kostya Zolotusky, managing director of capital markets development for Boeing's finance division. Investors like lessors because they can move planes to where they are needed worldwide, which is what happened after the financial crisis of 2008. Lessors make money by getting discounts on large orders of planes and then renting them out at higher rates to airlines. Airlines lease the planes for a few months to a number of years, when they can't afford to buy planes or need flexibility. The shift is significant, as Boeing expects one in two planes to be owned by lessors, compared to one in three today. AIG's unit, the International Lease Finance Corporation, faced problems during the crisis. ILFC has raised $9.4 billion in new debt issues in 2010 that allowed it to refinance existing debt and repay loans to the US government. There are risks, say some executives, if speculative orders and competition among lessors get Airbus and Boeing to make too many planes. ...

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Changing bank loan payments from 36 to 72 or 82 payments and bank's confidence to make new credit available at interest rates of abot 12% has created a boom in auto sales with 2.46 million cars sold in 2007, according to the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers, and car factories operating at near or full capacity. GM showed improved results last quarter largely on the basis of its Brazilian operations profits. Inflation at yearend 2007 was 4.5% and Brazil is experiencing a boom based on its commodity exports of iron ore, and other commodities. Foreign investment doubled last year to $34.6 billion, much of it going into the stock market, and the Brazilian currency is strong. And the Lula administration has also put money int he hand os the poor in Brazil so that the boom is more equally shared. The increase in availability of credit is in high double digits for everything from cars, and homes to consumer items like washing machines and televisions, because its starting from a low base as is true of most of Latin America where because of high inflation and interest rates banks were reluctant to lend and borrowers could not afford the high interest rates. Now home mortgages are available for 12% and car loans for 14%, still high but much better by Brazilian standards with extended payment terms. About 20 million more people are able to buy on credit with this new availability of credit according to Mr. Ferreira, President of the National Association of Credit, Financing and Investment Institutions. If interest rates drop further this boom will get new momentum as even more people will be attracted to buying on credit. The volume of outstanding credit in Brazil in February was 35% of GDP, the is compares to eurozone numbers of 116% for domestic credit to the private sector according to the World Bank figures for 2006, and 201% in the USA and 419% in Japan. Mr. Ferreira predicts that the proportion of personal debt to GDP would rise from 38% to 40% this year and increase by 3% each year to 2013....

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The gridlock in Congress and the housing crisis could postpone an overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for another two years. The housing crisis of 2008 has created a situation in which 9 out of 10 housing loans are guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie. The two agencies were created to buy mortgages from the banks, freeing the banks to make more loans. Fannie and Freddie gurantee the loans and then sell them to investors as securities, a process that lowers borrowing costs and makes 30 year mortgages more easily available to homeowners. The Obama administration and the Democrats want to continue some form of government guarantee, and continue government support for the 30 year fixed mortgage. The Republicans oppose any government guarantee because of the losses imposed on taxpayers by the way these agencies operated in the past, with the government guarantees providing the wrong kind of incentives in a housing market prone to bubbles. The fragility of housing markets means anything that raises borrowing costs could put downward pressure on housing prices. As a result the restructuring of the two housing agencies is in limbo. Republicans who want aggressive changes may wait for housing markets to stabilize, making the overhaul a multiyear process. Meanwhile the US Treasury has promised to inject unlimited sums into the mortgage giants through 2012 and nearly $300 billion after that, so that Fannie and Freddie have positive net worth and not go into receivership. The total cost to taxpayers beyond the $134 billion already incurred, is additional capital injection of $146 billion (for a total of $280 billion), because of further problems in the housing market in future years, and another $400 billion to adequately capitalize the entities that replace Fannie and Freddie, according to Standard and Poor's estimates....

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Nokia announced a loss of 929 million euros for the first quarter of 2012. Sales declined from 10.4 billon euros to 7.4 billion euros in the same quarter prior year. The only bright spot for the company is that the Lumia 900 sold throught AT&T has made a successful launch in the U.S. Nokia CEO Elop says the phone is sold out in stores in the U.S. Lumia sales were 2 million in the 1st quarter of 2012, at an average price of 220 euros ($290). Nokia's strategy now is to bring the Lumia line including the lower end Luma 610 phone to Asian markets by June- to China, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia. Nokia's biggest problem is the older Symbian phones, which consumers are passing by and which now have to be discounted rapidly or replaced quickly with the Lumia line. The other related problem is falling margins on basic phones as Chinese competitors discount heavily- basic Nokia phone prices fell 18% to 33 euros ($43) from 40 euros or($52) the prior year. The speed in the drop in business for mobile phones can be guaged from the sales decline of 40% in the 1st quarter from $9.3 billion to $5.6 billion. Things are made worse by the 772 million euro ($1 billion) charge taken for Nokia Siemens Networks, a network joint venture with Siemens. Sales for Nokia Siemens fell 7% in the first quarter to $3.8 billion. Nokia Siemens has 53 contracts to build new mobile networks with Long Term Evolution Technology more than competitors Ericsson and Huawei, according to Nokia Siemens. Everything now depends on the speed with which Nokia can move to its Lumia line across the board, especially in China....

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A new survey of senior lending officers of 45 emerging market banks by the Institute of International Finance is similiar to surveys done by central banks in U.S., Europe and Japan. The IIF is an asssociation of large global banks. The IIF's chief economist says the survey shows strong demand for loans in these countries. Emerging market banks are becoming cautious, but its difficult considering the strong demand for loans. In China and Brazil, banking authorites are trying to cool the huge increase in loans as asset bubbles are developing. The IIF's first survey shows strong demand for loans aross the board, especially in Brazil. Similiar information from Turkey shows strong loan demand. An index of loan demand for consumer loans in emerging markets- with a score of 50 indicating expansion of loan demand and below 50 contracting loan demand- is at 64.1. Similiar indexes for the U.S. are at 50.1, for Europe 49.8, Japan 48.5, according to the recent surveys by central banks. While 56% of emerging market banks say corporate loan demand has grown in the 1st quarter 2011- the similiar number for the U.S. is 35% in the Fed survey, and 28% for Europe in the ECB survey. The IIF survey looked at the bank's lending practices and found banks in emerging Asia were tightening standards while banks in Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Middle East were lowering the standards. 25% of emerging market banks tightened corporate lending standards, 16% relaxed standards, and the remainder left things as they were. A similiar Fed survey for the U.S. showed no banks tightening corporate lending standards, and 16% relaxing standards. And an ECB survey shows more banks tightening standards than relaxing them....

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In a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll taken December 11-14, the results show how fast things have changed in one year for the Obama administration. Today less than half of the people approve of the job Obama has done as President. And among core constituencies which helped Obama win the election he is losing support. A third of voters 34 and under feel negative toward the Democratic party. When asked about their sentiment Mike Ashmore, a23 year old from Lansdale, Pa., an independent who supported Obama what bothered him most was the lack of action on jobs. With Hispanics those who are positive about Democrats has dropped steeply from 60% to 38%. And Mr. obama's personal popularity has dropped, now only 50% feel positive about him down from 68% in January. Overal 35% feel positive about the Democratic party in Dec 2009, compared to 49% in February 2009. Something serious is happening here. Because this does not translate into gains fro the Republicans who are where they were earleir in the year. Only 28% of voters expressed positive feelings for the Republican which is what it has been all through the summer and fall of 2009. On Afghanistan only 44% feel its the right approach to do atroop buildup, 41% oppose. So the President support especially in his own party is not much here. If 28% of voters feel positive about Republicans, and only a litle more 34% feel positive about Democrats, then how will voters make achoice between candidiates in elections? Would they go by the merit of the candidate regardless of party. Something else that Americans are beginning to sense is that the country's prospects look grim with the economy, jobs, and the national debt and deficits, as well as a sense of lacking much needed renewal. ...

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The figures are staggering. $380 billion of $400 billion in Nigerian oil revenues estimated lost to corruption and waste from 1960 to 1999. This is the estimate given by Nigeria's top anticorruption official and quoted in the NYT. Meanwhile life expectancy in Nigeria is about 47 years and little of the oil revenues goes to infrastructure, health, education and investment to improve the lives of Nigeria's people. The oil companies after years of bad publicity, Shell and Exxon, appear to be shrugging their shoulders that there is little they can do beyond their own small investments, $100 million by Shell and $22 million by Exxon each year on roads and other related infrastructure. The western oil companies typically get 7% of the profits from oil sales, with the government keeping 93%, according to the NYT. Mouwad describes life inside a 50 acre area in Port Harcourt which houses Italians working for oil company Eni. A militant movement MEND is fighting in the Delta region to have more resources devoted to this neglected region of Nigeria. The result is that life is becoming difficult for foreign oil workers in the area. About 13% of oil revenues go to the states but corruption and waste eat up the money at the state level too. The River States budget is an example, of about $1.3 billion budget only $22 million goes to health services, helicopter services and catering for the governor's office alone cost $38 million and $10 million. MEND the delta region organization wants more money for the delta states and is organizing disruption of oil production as a method to make itself heard. This has increased the need for security consultants to protect oil company property and personnel. Already a quarter of Nigerian oil production has been shut down....

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As in the US with Harris investment in America vs Trump cuts there is a distinct difference between the Tory spending plans that allowed capital spending investment in the economic future of Britain to decline from 2.5% to 1.7% of GDP over 5 years to 2030. Rachel Reeves, Britain's finance minister, says the government will adopt a new rule that changes the way it measures debt- public sector net liabilities as a percentage of GDP is the new fiscal rule. What it does is free up 50 billion pounds Britain badly needs to invest in things like climate change action, education, and other needs of the economy that will brighten Britain's prospects in the future.  “If we continued on that path, we would be embracing a path of decline. The real debate now in British politics is whether you are on the side of investment or on the side of decline. I don’t want to see public sector net investment as a share of our economy decline in a way that is currently set out. Under our current fiscal rules, we would not be able to reverse that path.” The stability rule goes with this that says strictly this money will not be used for tax giveaways, and not for public sector pay deals or the day to day functioning of government. In addition th government will borrow 25 billion pounds to  keep 30 billion pounds of headroom so that debt will keep falling over the first term of this Labour government.   ...

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French and German authorites raid banks in an investigation on a $50 billion tax avoidance scheme in the European Union.

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Dow Chemical announces a price increase of 20% on its products, which are used for diapers, plastic wrap and other consumer products. Dow says its oil and gas related costs are up 42% in the first quarter 2008 over 2007.

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Retail sales in China dropped sharply. Retail sales dropped from double digit increases for most of 2014-2017 to single digits in 2018- sales dropping to 8.1%. Government restrictions to prevent a housing bubble restrained housing sales, and policies to control corporate debt limited growth. Higher inflation for food and housing, have led to asharp pullback in growth of consumer spending.  Trade tensions with the U.S. have hurt consumer sentiment. The feeling that China's growth would stabilize because of its connections to the world economy is fading as consumers see persistent trade tensions with the U.S. including tariffs of upto 60% in tit for tat actions as hurting China's prospects.  The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.5% for 2018 according to government estimates, which experts say is actually much less or even half that as exporters retrench in the face of slack demand in China and lower sales to the U.S.  Rail and other infrastructure projects that were considered unsuitable are now being given approval in efforts to boost the economy. More tax cuts and expanded deficit spending are policies likely to be followed.  At foreign companies no overtime, and job cuts are commonplace especially in the auto industry. ...

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Floyd Norris says the announcement by the ECB on Dec. 20, 2011, that 523 banks borrowed 489 billion euros under the newly created Long Term Financing Operation goes a long way towards giving Europe time to address the debt crisis. A major problem is recapitalization of European banks and the ECB's action helps address this problem. This is one of the achievements of the December summit of European leaders, though it was not the way markets had expected. Markets were focussed on large scale bond buying by the European Central Bank or issuance of euro bonds. ECB head, Mario Draghi, aware of widespread opposition in Germany to such proposals made it clear this was not going to happen. The Long Term Financing Operation of the ECB provides unlimited amounts of loans to European banks at 1% for 3 years, and accepts sovereign government debt as well as other types of securities as collateral. The result of this action was to lower the yield on a recent Spanish bond auction to 1.7% for three month bills from 5.1% the prior month. Spanish and Italian banks can now buy government debt of their countries and use the bonds as collateral at the ECB for three year loans at 1%. This Norris estimates will generate profits of about 37 billion euros for European banks from the difference between the ECB rate of 1% and the rate on two year bonds of Spain and Italy of 3.6% and 5.1% respectively for the bond purchases of 489 billion euros- calculated on a spread of 2.5 percentage points over three years. Another infusion of funds from the ECB will occur in February 2012. The new capital infusion gives European banks less reason to reduce lending in the eurozone as they work to meet the higher capital reserve requirements set under new Basel III rules. This is especially important given the austerity measures being implemented across the eurozone countries and Britain to reduce government deficits, and in light of the lower growth expected as a result....

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Sperling shows how Biden's economic plan rescued America and set the stage for America becoming the leader in the G7 economies. Gene Sperling is adviser to president Biden, coordinator of the America Rescue Plan, and had 8 years as adviser in 2000 and 2011 after the financial crisis to previous presidents. Here he says the arguments made that the trillion dollars investment spending Biden and a bipartisan group of senators have supported with legislation in Congress were causing inflation have proved not to be true. Inflation caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, the pandemic shifts, and the Ukraine war, has come down to 3.4% in Dec 2023. By investing in the US economy, in US manufacturing and US jobs, the US under Biden now has the best economy of the 7 advanced economies with higher growth and unemployment below 4% for 24 straight months, lower inflation apples to apples. Sperling says there were 4 lessons learned during his work with the White House. The first to avoid harm to workers whose lives get scarred by loss of jobs. This happened in 1982 and again in 2008 after the financial crisis. Unemployment took 6 years to recover after 2008. And he says the unemployment rate was 15% for younger workers. For the first time economists like Sperling and Treasury Secretary Yellen have grasped what workers feel and have gone through. Sperling cites the devastation to people's lives - the mental health, the divorce, the loss of earnings and depression. The new policy after 2020 resulted in the fastest drop in longterm unemployment ever with black and hispanic unemployment reaching record lows by 2023. A first ever national eviction prevention policy led to 20% less evictions than prepandemic. Second Sperling says 650,000 jobs were lost by state and local governments in the three years after 2008 financial crisis. State and local budget cuts and mass layoffs seriously hit the economy. This time in after 2020 1.2 million jobs were added with the money in the Rescue Plan and lost jobs recovered in one third the time it took in 2008. Third state and local governments need to deal with the harm coming from the downturn and after 2008 the cupboard was empty. Whereas after 2008 only 154 cities and counties got help to tackle commericial blight, effects on communities, foreclosure and long term joblessness in 2020 Biden was able to send direct funding to all 20,000 local governments and 15,000 school districts. This helped tackle learning loss, crime, and address mental health needs. What a difference it made. Lastly one needed to anticipate something unexpected to happen that flattened projections of recovery. In 2011 3.7% growth projected was flattened when Sperling was senior adviser, and this was flattened by Fukushima nuclear disaster, Arab Spring spike in oil prices, and debt default negotiations. This time there was cushion in the plan so that when covid variants and unexpected Ukraine war happened the rescue could withstand and deliver with resilience. Growth was 3.4% average for the first 3 years of Biden's term and unemployment went down from 8% to 4% for 24 months. Coming from someone who had seen mistakes happen and corrected them, who had served three presidents and the last Biden ,this is a story of how Sperling, Yellen, with the help of Powell at the Federal Reserve, and the bipartisan support put together by a US president in Congress , one who has served the country in the Senate more than any other recent Senator and led the nation with courage, patience and determination. ...

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The IMF commmittment to troubled European economies is large, at $320 billion, 40% of its theoretical financing capacity, and exceeds its role in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Concern that the IMF is now helping politicians protect the eurozone. And fears that the lack of the option of devaluing currency leaves too much of the burden on cutting spending in the midst of a recession. Deficit reduction in the current situation will take years to happen.