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U.S. president elect Trump meets with the heads of tech businesses on Dec. 14, 2016. CEO's of Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft were present. Trump was exuberant about the advantages secured by U.S. tech companies in global business, saying- "there's nobody like you in the world. Anything that the government can do to help this go along, we're going to be there for you." The discussions covered need for more vocational education, advantages and disadvantages of trade with China, and immigration. Quarterly meetings of this type are now planned with a smaller group organized by Jared Kushner to cover immigration and education.  Jeff Bezos of Amazon described the meeting as "very productive." Bezos says he told the group that the best way was to use innovation to create jobs outside of tech in agriculture, infrastructure, manufacturing elsewhere, to create large number of jobs. Ginni Rometty, CEO of IBM, and other executives are part of the Strategic and Policy Forum set up to provide business input to the president. ...

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"Ram Rajya" is a concept of a just society that serves the needs of the people based on the ancient history and ancient paths of Bharat or India. It is easily understood among the farmers and ordinary people of India. During the long period of colonialism it meant to Gandhi and hundreds of millions in the villages of India a sense of society free of colonialism and colonial rule that did not invest in the country or its people, no matter their religion or caste or language group. In this sense Ram Rajya is all about a just society of governance that meets the needs of all the people, that makes investment in the resources of the country to the benefit of the people. In the modern period in the transformation of rural societies such as China or India or other parts of Asia, Ram Rajya or Buddha Rajya as an extension of the same concept, and about what Abraham Lincoln called society for the people, of the people, by the people, in his call to America for a Just Society. In this sense it has connotations for the world as it struggles to build a style of governance in society that builds the infrastructure, invests in the education and minds of the people, in their health and wellbeing along all dimensions. In this way it is a social concept that is embodied in the best of human society throughout history. It embodies the aspirations of the people of Asia to modernity inspired by ancient tradition, aspirations to science and technology and building modern societies. Of India with Ram and the Buddha, China in its connections to the Buddha, to the people of Indonesia with the connection to Hanuman, and the people in South East Asia and Japan through their connections to the Buddha which were embedded in the ancient society of Ram and the Upanishads in the land south of the Himalayas. No one is too small, no effort is ordinary or small- "I am very small, I am very ordinary, if someone thinks so one must remember the contribution of the squirrel. Remmbering the ocntribution of the squirrel will dispel our hesitation, and teach us that every effort big or small, has its strength and contribution. The foundation of Sabka Prayas (everyone's efforts) will be the foundation of a divine, and capable, just and good Bharat or India for all its 1400 million people."   ...

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The stronger dollar, low inflation, slowing economy in China and slowing global economy, are factors that the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering in its plan to raise interest rates in 2016.

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The pandemic brings together companies in three countries U.S, Italy and France with the merger of Fiat Chrysler with PSA. Fiat Chrysler is owned by the company Exor owned by the Agnelli family in Italy. PSA is owned by the Peugeot family in France. In addition the government of France and Dongfeng Motors in China have stakes in PSA.  During the 2008-2009 crisis Chrysler merged with Fiat with the help of the Obama administration which pursued a policy of promoting small cars. Instead the merger saved jobs but led to the PR effort for small Fiat cars and the focus on the Jeep Cherokee and SUV's like the Dodge Ram. Today one hardly ever hears about small Fiats from Fiat Chrysler that was the basis for government help on the merger. 

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The severe drought in China is affecting the provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi, which produce about two thirds of China's wheat. China's Xinhua news agency is reporting that the drought in Shandong province could be "the worst drought in 200 years." China's retail wheat flour prices were up 8% over the two months to January and up 16% from the same month in 2010. The drought puts at risk the winter wheat crop harvested in June, according to the FAO. The FAO provided figures showing that 5.16 million hectares of a total of 14 million hectares of wheat producing areas are affected. China maintains large stores of wheat, estimated at 53 millon tons in Dec 2010, by Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. The reserves act as a buffer for shortages.

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Efforts by French president Macron to end the alienation of Russia from the Western Alliance by bringing together Ukraine's Zelensky and president Putin of Russia for talks in Paris. The effort is for the negotiations to take place in a new environment that accepts the need to recognize Russian concerns for NATO too close to its borders. President Macron has stated that Russia is not the threat for NATO to focus on as the world has changed with the emergence of China, the changes with the Trump administration policy. By ending the Ukraine conflict and Russian perception of a threat on its borders, Macron is making a constructive effort to bring Europe together and put the Ukraine conflict behind it. His comments about NATO being brain dead have received too much media attention, less attention to the effort to mediate and solve conflicts based on perceived threats Russia thinks it faces.

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Greg Ip in the WSJ says India is shifting towards  becoming an important partner with the US and the European Union in trade under the Modi government. This report reflects the situation upto 2021 and the changes in Indian and American perceptions during the pandemic. It does not reflect the rapidly evolving situation under president Biden.US president Biden and Jake Sullivan National Security Advisor see rapidly expanding US trade and investment in India. The recent Raisina Dialogue  brings together 26 countries- named after Raisina Hill in New Delhi where India's administration is located- in dialogue with Indian leaders. Finance Minister Sitharaman in an interview at Raisina Dialogue stated that Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, was with her during a G-20 meeting, and Yellen called for friendshoring- foreign investment in democracies that respect the rule of law and provide the right conditions for investment. The right conditions are now being created in India, including infrastructure and logistics, trade practices, and assistance to foreign companies, to invest in Indian manufacturing. The conditions are being created for shifting significant number of manufacturing facilities to India in a complete redesign of the supply chain. A look at the period 1950-2015 in US-EU India relations says little of the newly evolving situation in trade in the way that looking at the US-EU China relations 1950-1990 during the Cold War would tell one little about how that relationship evolved in trade after 1990 in the 1990-2019 period for massive trade with China. The pandemic and the inflation from existing supply chain bottlenecks has led to a realization in US-EU that the existing concentration of manufacturing in one country  was a mistake and is a serious problem that needs correction.  This means an acceleration in the effort to build rapidly over the next 5-10 years a strong US-EU manufacturing presence in India for advanced technologies. India under prime minister Modi is creating the infrastructure and logistics for this to happen with large domestic investment, the help of Denmark's Maersk in port logistics, and from other countries.  Fo India manufacturing and infrastructure building is the only way to create the jobs needed to meet the aspirations of its young population. For the US-EU the redesign of the supply chain is the highest priority to cut inflation, remove potential bottlenecks, and provide a stable supply chain.    ...

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Republicans have supported less regulation. After the 2009 financial crisis with faulty mortgages and excessive leveraging one would expect that there would be a shift among Republicans favoring necessary regulation of banks. This did not happen after the Obama administration failed to articulate a new culture after 2009 and lost control of Congress in 2010 by as much as 64 seats in the House 6 in the Senate, and in all demographic and income groups. The result was that the 2009 crisis changed some laws but not the culture of laissez faire that less regulation was better for the economy. It is left to president Biden to tackle this problem of culture and the Silicon Valley Bank clearly shows that the parts of the Republican and Democratic parties that support less regulation even where the regulation is essential for a good economy for workers and families, are self serving. No where is this culture of laissez fairre in its other manifestation in not planning for the US manufacturing base to be strengthened by government action more evident than in the way it has prevailed to turn a blind eye to not just sending manufacturing overseas, but over concentrating it in one country China with additional supply base from Japan into China. This is the challenge that the country faces- only if the culture or mindset changes will laws have the needed impact.  This report in the NYT shows that when president Trump appointed Randall Quarles to vice chair of banking supervision in 2017, Congressmen both Republicans and Democrats believed that less supervision was better for the economy. Democrats such as Congressmen Barney Frank were themselves part of the new culture when Frank joined Signature Bank's board in 2015, one of the banks that along with SVB bank caused the banking crisis of 2023. Its association with risky crypto assets is considered by the WSJ as being one reason the government decided to close it. Frank did not see this aspect of its risk insisting that the bank was in sound condition.  This culture is also manifested in its approach to the cost of living crisis and support for workers and families. The Biden administration sees the problem of culture and of clearly making the changes that create a new culture, and a new understanding of what is right for America, for its economy and for its role in the world, and best for its people.   ...

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Anders Rasmusen, NATO Secretary General 2009-2014, says it is dangerous for Europe to remain a bystander in the Indo-Pacific. He says the Social Democrats and Greens in Germany, and the Nordic countries including Denmark do not support the policies of the outgoing administration of chancellor Merkel in relations with China. Rasmussen was prime minister of Denmark from 2001-2009. The current prime minister of Denmark, is the leader of the Social Democrats and won the election in 2019 to become prime minister. In the recent German election the Social Democrats were the largest party in parliament and expected to form a government with the Greens party. The situation in the world is changing rapidly in 2020-2021 the years of the coronavirus pandemic. Supply chains are being restructured. The Danish prime minister is on a 3 day visit to India. The Biden administration is committing to spending $3.5 trillion for the renewal of the American economy and for families and workers. America is committed to it role as a leader of the free world, protecting its technologies and strengthening its industries, building respect for workers and families. ...

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David Brooks say this is one of the periodic crises of faith America has faced. Its the rise of China. and its not the economic growth rate. Its the deeper spiritual issue that is troubling. The vigor that once was characteristic of the US, the optimism for the future, and the belief that the country is headed in the right direction, these are the things that stand in marked contrast between China and the USA today. 86% of Chinese people believe tht their country is headed in the right direction compared to 37% of Americans. Only one third of Americans believe that the next society changing innovation will occur here , while a majority of Chinese feel confident that it will happen in China. The results are from aNewsweek-Intel survey called the Global Innovation Survey. Brooks says America needs to slow down consumption and reward production, building things and innovative ways. And leaders must make the long term narrative of America's story convincing. See the link to Michael Porter's essay in Business Week on a strategy for America in the October 30, 2008 issue of Business Week, that Brooks cites as a way forward....

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The BBC looks at the conflicting agendas when it comes to China of Rubio at State and Tulsi Gabbard at Intelligence. Lighthizer is the positive in correcting the trade imbalance with China because he served as US Trade Representative in the first DJT term and has experience going back to negotiating with Japan under Reagan as Deputy Trade Representative.  Controversial are the appointment of a Fox news person Hegeth as Defense Secretary, as he has no experience running an agency, and this one employs 3 million people. Gaetz as Attorney General is being questioned by many Republicans, and in the Senate by Cornyn (R). On spending the Office of Government Efficiency is not a department and Vivek Ramaswamy age 39 years lacks experience in administration, cost cutting. Elon Musk has cut costs at Tesla and Twitter but has no experience handling budgets of agencies. Trump has promised more spending. The cost cuts would be the opposite of what he promised if it cuts essential programs not for efficiency but for viewpoint.   ...

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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It is not clear what this bazooka is. China's leaders are studying the economy carefully. Recent actions for stimulus were designed to offset weak performance of stock markets which have rebounded with Shanghai index up 11% into positive territory. Consumption spending is weak with worries about the safety net and propensity to save so that lower mortgage rates will mean households will pay of their mortgage first before increasing spending. Real estate construction is weak after bankruptcies in this sector. Some suggestions are for China to improve its safety net as in the US for working class people, low income families- to give them better medical insurance. And increase pensions of farmers, migrant workers, and low income families. They may still be inclined to save yet it is a move in the right direction as is happening in the US, and the trend worldwide is to reduce stark social divisions. China just lacks the resources for the kind of revival in the US that Harris has planned. As long as the US was frittering away its resources in foreign wars it had one hand tied behind it's back, as long as it did not invest these dollars going to wars overseas in the domestic economy it would languish and fall behind. It was in this sense Joe Biden who did the hard work that Trump after raising the alarm signals failed to do for lack of focus, and now it is Harris who is building the game plan for the kind of US that led the US into the twentieth century once before- optimism, imagination and hard work. ...

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This report about 996, referring to nine am to nine pm 6 workdays a week, shows it is becoming highly unpopular among tech workers in China, as tech companies slash jobs and workers work longer hours. A campaign on GitHub a code sharing platform is called 996/ICU speaks of such gruelling hours as the way to end up in the ICU. It got 250,000 positive user comments.

This type of work at tech companies is leading to fatigue, chronic illness, stress and lack of any free time to think or even exercize, leading to health problems. Yet some company CEO's push 996 against the mounting evidence that this is not the best for employees and can lead to por producivity. Recent studies about the cities such as Mumbai, India, or Tokyo, Japan, show productivity is a fraction of the productivity in many European countries working normal hours. Mumbai vs. Dublin for example. Dublin has a lot higher productivity.

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This opinion in the Hindu says India should respond effectively to maintain its relations with the ASEAN countries as part of its 'Act East' policy. As the U.S. partly withdraws from the region and China's influence increases India is shaping a new policy with ASEAN nations. All ASEAN nations were invited for India's Republic Day celebrations. Japan, India, Australia, and the U.S., are cooperating to ensure a rules based peaceful cooperation in the region. The views here are expressed by Harsh Pant of King's College, London. He says deeper and broad based engagement is needed with ASEAN, with India no longer playing a diffident role.

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It took a week longer for each country to impose a lockdown. In China first Wuhan then the whole country went into lockdown and quarantine. The same process is repeated in Europe and in America as authorites see numbers of infections increasing rapidly without strict controls. First the Lombardy region in Italy around Milan, then the provinces in Northern Italy, followed by a complete lockdown in the country on March 10 as infection spread faster without lockdown and enforcement of lockdowns. Germany and Britain follow Spain and Italy on March 20. France followed Spain in the days after Italy's complete lockdown. Macron ordered the lockdown on March 16 with stringent enforcement. Infectious Disease specialists at Imperial College warned of "unintended consequences for the entire nation" if a lockdown of Britain did not take place. The goal is to limit the spread of infections from rapid to slow as public health systems and economic measures are ramped up in preparation for the crisis. Most countries were lacking the preparatory steps having lost time waiting to see what happens next or analyzing data in the vain hope the virus does not spread.  Bad economic results of lockdowns were initially a concern, but this concern became less important as the coronavirus spread rapidly in Europe. Decision makers in Europe decided that not acting forcefully would lead to equally or worse economic outcomes. Public health systems overwhelmed would diminish public confidence rapidly and lead to equally bad or much worse economic outcomes. The European Union executive body has supported state aid, stimulus action and border controls in this crisis. In America and in Europe the hope is that shoring up the safety net with massive aid to businesses and households would buy time to tackle and overcome the coronavirus through a combination of lockdowns, quarantines, contact tracing, large scale testing and medical technology measures. The examples of China, South Korea, Taiwan showed this pathway exists for phased control and reducing fatalities to zero. ...

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The French view of the DJT administration is that it is a rupture, an "historic rupture with immigration repression, aggressive trade policy, and undermining of federal and state institutions." This is far from the reality. In fact it is not a rupture, and far from that policy that DJT brought in the waning days of a tired cautious Obama administration that extended the war in Afghanistan long after it was clearly a failure from the Bush years. DJT called it common sense during his Inauguration speech waving his hands- so obvious, stay out of wars we have no purpose pursuing. Regain America's manufacturing base shipped out to China in the Clinton-Bush-Obama years 2000-2016 that helped the rise of China in phases of supply chain partner, competitor, adversary. French view Le Monde is that this is "aggressive trade policy," when in fact small towns across the US and France, and other industrialized EU nations, by losing their factory and industrial base to China have gone downhill losing jobs and standard of living. Tariffs and DJT policy was continued by Biden- there is no rupture. What French in Le Monde call "Immigration repression," is a policy of protecting border security including illegal drug and fentanyl flows and gang activity that was accepted by Biden and Biden-Republican Lankford legislation was agreed in 2024 to close the Border. There is no rupture from Biden on closing the Border.  With millions having crossed the Border illegally Republicans now have the support of Democratic Senators Gallego of Arizona and Fetterman of Pennsylvania in passing the Laken Riley Act in Congress to protect Americans and safeguard life in America.   ...

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For Deere 80% of production of farm tractors is in US and 75% of suppliers in US. It is working on ways to tackle tariffs impact which is about $500 million. Its plan is to raise prices 2-4%. Deere has to tackle the imports from Germany of midsize tractors and its exports to Europe which also face tariffs. Other production is in Mexico and China.

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Jim Tankersley in the NYT says administration officials point out that president Biden is determined not to repeat the political and economic mistakes of the Obama era. Economists now say that these economic mistakes slowed the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis caused by faulty mortgages of banks and excessive leveraging. Obama cut back on spending on education, on relief for workers and families affected by the financial crisis of 2008, and in investing in education and other public goods. Administration officials also point to polls that show the public increasingly sides with the president on this. "The American people are absolutely right in saying that having the super wealthy and special interests pay their fair share is the right way to cut the deficit," says a communications adviser to the National Economic Council. Huge social gaps opened up in America with these economic mistakes, including the transfer of America's manufacturing base to China, an overconcentration in one country that is only now being reversed under president Biden. Jim Tankersley has covered this loss of opportunity for American workers for over a decade. ...

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Daniel Yergin, expert on international oil markets, says the oil price cap set by the US and EU at $60 and the European prohibition on Russian oil imports after Dec. 5, means the end of the global oil market. That global oil market came into place with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the industrialization of China. In its place comes a partitioned oil market shaped by not only economics and logistics but also by geopolitical strategy, says Yergin. This means Russia no longer sends 4 million barrels a day to Europe. The price cap is a US strategy to prevent a price surge with Russia cutting production to raise prices. It is working. with a slowing world economy, and shipping companies reluctant to take on unknown liabilities from government penalties, the price of Russian oil is now at mid $40's, about 45% below the benchmark price and 33% below the $70 price of oil on which the Russian budget is based, says this report. This has an unintended effect of enabling India to support its modernization drive with oil imports at reasonable prices coming just after a pandemic. ...

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The Paris climate change agreement involved 195 countries. Agreed to on December 12, 2015 it was seen as a major step forward to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Progress has been slow in taking action since then. Because of covid 19 the Glasgow conference was cancelled. Hope stems from the goals set for carbon neutral economy of Japan, the EU, UK, China, and the U.S. as it enters the agreement after withdrawing.  Much will depend on action taken as the pandemic has pushed economic goals of recovery to the forefront. As India has shown in renewable energy, particularly in solar energy targets and bold vision, there is a lot that can be done by each country acting on its own without the hype of the agreement. India now sees huge opportunities in solar energy because it is cheaper and pollutes less than coal. This is a game changer that comes from investing in new technologies and taking advantage of India's abundant access to sunny weather and the lower labor and other costs. ...

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Much of the growth in 2022-2024 was a result of Biden administration government spending on infrastructure supported by private sector spending. With efforts to cut waste and set new priorities in government spending, growth in 2025-2026 has to come from private sector spending with the DJT administration. The tariffs in the first 100 days are seen by business as a bargaining chip. Scott Bessent has described the tariffs as domestic policy, and president DJT has stated clearly that the tariffs against CMC countries, Canada, Mexico and China, is intended to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. The scale of the fentanyl issue can be seen from the 490,000 American deaths over 12 years from fentanyl.  It is incumbent on CMC countries to take action on fentanyl. It is also incumbent on the CMC countries and on the EU, on opinion in business and the Silicon Valley in the US, to grasp the real dimensions of this crisis destroying so many lives, that is so unprecedented in the history of the US.   ...

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Mr. Trump has a firm resolve not to get the U.S. involved in wars in distant places so that he can focus on important economic and other issues including the current confrontation with China on trade. He has relied on advice from General Keane as he forged American policy on Iran and other foreign policy issues. Mr. Bolton the National Security Adviser holds strong opinions on Iran and this is seen as a problem that could accidentally create more tensions or war with Iran. He was passed over with the job going to General McMaster in the earlier part of the Trump administration.The use of an aircraft carrier moving to the Persian Gulf region was merely a precautionary measure says the Trump administration, and the U.S. continues to look for ways to work out its differences with Iran even as it imposed sanctions on Iran. This brings the U.S. closer to its allies in Europe.

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Thre drug companies are placing bets on the vaccine business. Johnson and Johnson paid 302 million euros for 18% of Dutch biotech company Crucell NV, to jointly develop vaccines. Abbott Labs says it will acquire a unit of Belgian conglomerate Solvay SA for 4.5 billion euros in adeal that includes a vaccine business. And Merck obtained the marketing rights for a seasonal flu vaccine from Australia's CSL Ltd. This follows Pfizer's Wyeth acquisition. Low prices, high costs and fear of lawsuits made most drug makers to exit the business in the 1980's and 1990's. Now vaccine sales are growing faster than other prescription drugs and are largely protected from generic competition. And government agencies here in the USA and around the world are reliable buyers of vaccines as they seek to stockpile medicines that could be needed in aflu outbreak. Merck never exit the vaccine business and now makes 8 of 10 vaccines recommended for adults. Flu and other vaccines are especially attractive for entering drug markets in Brazil and China and developing countries. Governments lke the idea of lowcost prevention at $10 adose, and with this new relationships are developed in these countries. And even at price of $10 or $20 a dose they provide asteady stream of revenue.Vaccines are estimated to generate $21.5 billion in revenues by 2012 according to Sanofi-Aventis SA, which is a leading vaccine maker....

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The NYT says many of India's largest and most profitable companies are "relative models of probity," and several ranking among the world's best governed companies including companies in the software and pharmaceutical sectors. Large parts of the Indian economy have little appetite for the risk taken on by the Adani Group and are run on a financially conservative basis. Infrastructure is unique for this kind of risk taking because of decades of neglect of Indian infrastructure during the 1995-2015 period, when China was rapidly building infrastructure with large investments and India fell behind. It is that catchup mode that induced Adani Group's aggressive efforts taking on debt for outsize goals that it was willing to adopt for coal, solar and port logistics. As a result the Indian economy with companies such as Infosys and Dr. Reddy's Labs says the NYT, is largely not affected by the problems of the Adani group's debt structure.    ...