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Union leaders at plants more receptive to the VEBA, Voluntary Employees Benefit trust.Trust funding at discounted rate an issue. The VEBA could work both ways if its short on funds GM could step in, if it has more funds due a national health care plan being passed then GM could have access to liquidity from the VEBA. Meanwhile Clinton speech in Des Moines, Iowa on new Health Plan addresses the burden on GM to fund retirees health and other costs in the range of 1600 dollars vs Toyota's 200 some dollars. Senator Clinton offers for Governnment to take up the burden of catastrophic coverage for the large companies like GM in her Plan. She also cites the Mayo Clinic study as example of a consensus on the need for action on health care.

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"Don't throw things out if you can fix them," is the new rule and this applies to simple household gadgets, mobile phones, and so many of the everyday appliances we use. Sometimes a bit of maintenance replacing a small part is all it takes to get it functioning again. The tendency to throw stuff out and replace it quickly is now being frowned on.

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Efforts to get people to spend money rather than hoard it with a special kind of currency in local areas in the 1930's which was taxed if it was not spent. Examples for acoal mining area in Bavaria and so on.

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Ted Cruz has put together a strong organization for the Iowa caucuses. This report by Martin and Flegenheimer of the NYT describes the approach taken by the Cruz campaign- with a organizational head for each of Iowa's 99 counties, captains in 1537 of 1681 precincts, and 10,000 volunteers. Cruz campaign has carefully selected voters who vote consistently and who are likely to respond to one of a list of appeals based on research in behavioural psychology, points which precinct captains and volunteers use to make notes for talking to voters. Turnout is expected to be 121,000 to 140,000, and the Cruz campaign says it is prepared if the count is much higher with new caucus participants. Voter turnout is an important aspect of their campaign, saying their organizational effort with about 15,000 calls made each day from Iowa Cruz offices, is striving to improve performance by 2.5 to 5 percentage points and deal with a "swell" in voters by identifying additional voters. The Trump campaign is based more on campaigning generally to voter sentiment, drawing large numbers to rallies appealing to the white working class, voters who are less committed and less likely to vote- counting on a swell in new voters some who sign up as Republicans at the voting location....

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This editorial in the WSJ after the New Hampshire primary, points out that the attacks by Republican candidates on each other instead of educating voters on Donald Trump, will only lead to them falling behind. During the Republican television debate the sharp exchange between Christie and Rubio hurt both candidates in New Hampshire. It says that one of Trump's important weakness is that one third of the voters who voted for Trump have reservations about him. Trump was also lagging behind in voter confidence in his ability to handle an international crisis. Ted Cruz was not able to win big with non evangelical voters in a state on the East coast, which would affect him as a Republican nominee in November 2016. It also points out that voter perceptions about Sanders are changing- voters may now see a "socialist" as electable, if Republicans can nominate a person with no serious credentials and a volatile temperament. Voters may also now see Clinton having electability problems of her own with the email controversy, and voter skepticism about her honesty and trustworthiness. The Democratic Party has shifted in the Obama years- with exit polls showing 7 of 10 Democrats in the New Hampshire primary saying they are liberals, and one fourth "very liberal." ...

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Apple CEO, Steve Jobs, gave this commencement address at Stanford University in 2005. In it he describes three stories that sums up his life's experiences and what he had learnt about living. One about not graduating from college and how that happened, the second about leaving Apple in 1985 and the energizing period after he left Apple, and the third about his fight with pancreatic cancer in 2004. In these three experiences Jobs brings out the message of the words "bloom where you are planted," because of the resilience and growth he experienced in the way he handled the three difficult life experiences. Not having the money for college, being pushed out of the company he created by the time he was 30, and facing a life threatening illness. Throughout each experience and what life threw at him, Jobs showed dignity, courage and a keen eagerness to learn and grow, turning difficulties into opportunities. He ends the address with this image from an old 70's Whole Earth Catalog. This is an early morning country road in the fall- the kind of road one would take if one was adventurous- with the message "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." Something Jobs says he always wished for himself, and wishes for the graduates....

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This Washington Post editorial says vice president Biden's comments that "I guarantee you, flat guarantee you, there will be no changes to Social Security. I flat guarantee you," made to a voter in Southern Virginia, is downright disheartening. It points out that this is not the conclusion of the trustees of the Social Security Fund, which includes the secretaries of Treasury, labor and health and human services of the Obama administration. The April annual report of the trustees says that the disability portion of the trust fund "becomes exhausted in 2016," and the overall fund "becomes exhausted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on a timely basis in 2033." Actions suggested by the trustees include: raising the payroll tax, tweaking the inflation calculator, reducing benefits, or some combination of this. It is clear from polls that the U.S. voter does not want either party to touch Social Security, but the reality is something different. The idea of a flat guarantee in the light of facts that all can see is seen by the Post as going too far, trying to win votes at the cost of postponing necessary decisions which will become harder and costlier if not addressed early....

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Friedman describes the lack of decisionmaking, initiative and courage in the Eurozone, India and China to tackle difficult problems. During his visit to India he describes the problems India faces. A serious problem with lack of good governance within the democratic framework. India also has a growing population that will soon surpass China's population, which makes the task of development that much harder, with the small steps India is taking to move forward not making a serious impact. Azim Premji, chairman of Wipro, described it this way: "There is a complete lack of decision-making among leaders in the government. If prompt action is not taken, the country will face a setback. You must appreciate how serious it is." Friedman sees a similiar situation in the eurozone countries as new governments are being formed in Greece and Italy by Papademos and Mario Monti, both technocrats from the European Union. This has the added complication because these experts have not been elected. The fact that they have support and goodwill is because of the failure of the political class in Greece and Italy. The failure of the political class in the U.S. is evident from the stymied negotiations over the deficit, and the lack of leadership from President Obama....

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The Stop Online Piracy Act is being pushed by the Motion Picture industry to prevent U.S. websites offering pirated movie or television content. Estimates show 13% of Americans have watched pirated movie and television shows which costs the industry millions of dollars. The legislation to correct this under the SOPA is so broad that it would limit the ability of internet companies to operate freely. It gives the Justice Department powers to shut down sites to prevent pirated content from appearing even if the internet companies are not knowingly allowing pirated content through their sites. This is why Google, Wikipedia and other internet companies see this as a violation of freedom for the internet, and leading to possible censorship of the internet. Because the SOPA legislation would allow Domain Name System (DNS) blocking this also affects cybersecurity in a negative way. By redirecting traffic away from pirate websites using a DNS blocking system the move would allow hackers a way to create problems for internet security. For this reason the U.S. government has also raised concerns about this proposed legislation. Considering the problems and issues raised this may be an example of overreach by the Motion Picture industry that affects the vital free flow of information on the web. ...

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There is concern that though President Da Silva has had success in his term in office, he is leaving problems for the new administration. One expert says he leaves a giant question mark behind him. One of the problems is high spending by his administration. After the financial crisis of 2008, the government flooded massive state run banks with cash, ordering the banks to to lend heavily to businesses and consumers. The government also increased its own spending on contracts and projects. Public spending has continued to grow since 2008, and federal expenditures as a percentage of the economy have doubled during Da Silva's term in office. In an editorial recently, the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, says the government should have used the high growth in the economy to cut public spending and improve the public finances. Because the Rousseff administration is a continuation of Da Silva's administration, and includes many of the same people, the daily asks if the Rousseff team's promises to cut spending in 2011 are believable. Inflation in 2010 is at 6%. The other serious problem is an highly overvalued currency, and volatile capital inflows from developed countries. The boom in China has helped Brazilian commodities and agricultural exports, a slowdown there would affect Brazil's economy. ...

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Prof. Leverett of Penn State University says the student protests at the time of the Shiite holy day day of Ashura, after the death of Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, do not represent the majority. He says it is unikely that there will be much change in the Iranian government and President Obama should work with the existing Iranian government. He goes on to say that vastly larger number of Iranians went to the streets on December 30, in demonstrations organized to support the current Islamic Republic government, even saying that these demonstrations could have numbered nearly 1 million people. As the Iranian student protests have generated much media interest and were covered widely, this article presents an entirely different picture of the situation. The question remains to what extent does student protests reflect wider sentiment throughout the country, and if Leverett is right why did the party represented by Ahmadinejad need to win the presidential election by practices that were questioned by the opposition and others. Or is there an urban-rural divide in Iranian politics where most of the urban and literate classes have turned against the government and support student protest and seek change, whereas the rural areas support the current government. ...

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Feldstein points out that Obama economic plans missed the real target, which was on the home front where it came down to addressing the problems of 15 million homeowners under water- with mortgages exceeding the value of their homes- and lack of solutions to deal with the $1.5 trillion in troubled commercial real estate loans. Administration plans really did not help more than a couple of hundred thousand homeowners to reduce their monthly mortgage payments. Getting banks to start lending again by selling impaired loans to nonbank investors, also failed to work, as banks were reluctant to do so and reduce their accounting capital. Health care legislation simply distracted attention from the real problems. See the links to Feldstein's repeated insistence that the new administration (and even during the late stages of the Bush administration) focus on these problems. Health care legislation that passed simply would not control the increase in health care spending, that the public correctly perceived as the real problem if the other health care issues were to be resolved. Instead Obama's health care legislation offered to increase the deficit to unsustainable levels, with no solutions to more pressing home front problems in sight. Feldstein, is one of the most eminent US economists....

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Research shows that when a home's value falls below 75% of the amount owed on the mortgage, the homeowner thinks hard about walking away even if he has the money to keep paying, as it does not make economic sense to keep paying. By 3rd quarter 2009 4.5 million Americans reached this point and by June 2010 it is estimated by Corel Logic, a real estate firm, that 5.1 million will reach the 75% point- or 10% of all mortgages. Homeowners who made the mistake of buying as the market was cresting are seriously considering walking away and bank's reluctance to reduce the payments is for them the last straw. The Obama administration hasn't helped as this comment by assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, Michael Barr, shows. He discounts the idea that many people will walk away from their homes, saying that the overwhelming number will stay in their homes. Consultants at Oliver Wyman show from their research that at least 17% walked away from their homes even though they could make payments in 2008, or 588,000 people, and this was before the full impact of the global financial crisis. These numbers could be much higher in today's depressed market....

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Japan's new prime minister told the Japanese Parliament in a policy speech, that a crisis like that in Greece was possible in Japan, if trust in national bonds was lost and the policy of public spending to lift the economy was not reversed. This speech followed the resignation of Shizuka Kamei, as banking minister. Kamei was seen as an advocate of continued public spending. He cautioned that a policy of relying heavily on issuing debt could not be sustained for long. Japan has government debt of $9.7 trillion, which is close to twice its gross national product in 2009. Much of this debt is held by the public in Japan, but analysts have cautioned that with the aging population, it is possible that people who retire will need the cash from bonds, requiring the government to turn to the debt markets for financing. Among the proposals Kan suggested is raising the 5% sales tax to pay for rising social welfare costs for an aging population. Satoshi Arai, the new national strategy minister, says the government will draft a plan by June 22 to address the public debt. He said the government would not exceed $500 billion in bond issuance for fiscal year ending March 2012....

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The Chinese car market is changing fast, with domestic brands making up a larger share of the local market. In 2000 these domestic brands made up 18% of total sales, whereas in 2010 forecasts show this to be about 32%, with the share increasing in future years. In a rapidly growing market this did not make much difference, but with the market growth moderating to 7-8% in the next ten years from the heady 33% of recent years, the foreign brands such as GM and VW will not see the growth of recent years. J.D. Powers projects passenger vehicle sales in China at 19.2 million by 2017, with Chinese brands taking 45% of the share, in one scenario. Under this scenario foreign brands like GM and VW would see sales growth of only 5% in the next 7 years. The foreign brands are not allowed to own more than 50% of local operations. And their partners are making their own domestic brands. If Japan is a useful example, China's automobile companies will like Nisssan, Toyota, and Honda, proceed to penetrate global markets and become a dominant player in their local market. This has implications for GM, VW and Daimler....

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John Taylor, a professor of economics at Stanford, points out that the numbers being thrown back and forth in the budget debate can be confusing. He suggests a better way to look at this. The U.S. budget was 20% of GDP in 2007, and has been at or below that level in recent years, before the higher spending to counteract the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. As the economy recovers and private investment increases it makes sense to bring the spending back to levels where it has been- spending levels that do not endanger the country's credit rating and are a prudent way to manage the nation's finances. Taylor asks the question- if the U.S. got by by spending 20% of GDP in 2007, then why is it not possible to do this in future years when the GDP will be higher. In 2000 spending was actually 18.2% of GDP. Taylor says that with higher incomes people will be moving into higher tax brackets which should increase revenues in future years. In three years since 2009 the spending levels are up to 24.4%. Under this scenario private investment would make up for lower government spending and debt, leading to higher employment and GDP as business confidence rises. ...

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Clarence Cammers, 64, one of Paul Ryan's constituents back home in Wisconsin, has a question for Ryan at one of his townhall meetings. Clarence is worried about what would happen to his son Tim, 32, if Medicare cuts went through and his son had to use vouchers for getting health insurance. Ryan's district includes Racine withe high unemployment, and Janesville which was devastated by the closing of the General Motors plant in 2010. Most of the people there are conservative, believe in fiscal responsibility and a balanced budget, but they are also older, working class people. Some of them like Clarence are dependent on their Social Security check to get by from month to month and are not sure they can cope with the kinds of cuts Ryan is proposing. In this story Clarence and Tim discuss the meeting and come to the conclusion that Tim will lose either way- with taxes going up or Tim not getting the retirement that he should be getting. Clarence a life long saver decides he will cut back on his expenses and save $588 from his $1912 monthly social security check for Tim. Tim has severe attention deficit disorder and works for $10 an hour in food prep at a resort....

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Putin writes to Gayne Young, a high school English teacher from Fredericksbug, Texas, who is a blogger for Outdoor Life. A lengthy interview with Putin is published in Outdoor Life. Putin talks about the period before the Second World War and the Cold War period and says a large number of barriers were unnaturally and artificially forced on the two peoples during this period. He says the two countries and peoples were cruelly kept apart from each other and only now has the relationship assumed a natural pattern where people can communicate and make friends. Young was captivated by an account of Putin's encounter with a blue whale in the summer of 2010. Young asked Putin whether he thought this was dangerous and Putin's response was philosphical and eloquent- human beings are one of the most vulnerable creatures on earth, facing disease, disaster and criminality, he says, as if covering the Russian people's experiences since the Bolshevik revolution right through the period that followed the collapse of the Berlin Wall. He adds that this does not mean one should move back from living life to the fullest, experiencing it to the fullest, which by its very nature is about some level of risk....

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American companies on the Standard and Poors 500 stock index are sitting on a pile of cash-estimated at $960 billion. This includes undistributed foreign earnings that would incur 35% taxes if brought into the U.S. At the same time companies are hoarding this cash, using some of it for acquisitions, and only gradually increasing dividends. The dividend payout ratio- the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends- is at 28.9% for the past 4 quarters according to Standard & Poors. The dividend payout ratio was 46% for three decades since 1936, and 52% for the last two decades, according to Standard & Poors. Zweig cites Benjamin Graham who stated that companies should pay two thirds of dividends to shareholders. Why? Because shareholders can make better use of the money. With too much money companies tend not to make the best productive use of capital. One example is Microsofts's purchase of Skype at $8.5 billion, considered inflated by many analysts. Graham stated that when the companies are not making productive use of the capital it is appropriate to expect that it be returned to shareholders in the form of dividends. At the 50% ratio one dividend fund manager says companies could return $207 billion to investors. ...

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Gen. Martin Dempsey took a cautious approach to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Syria. He did not approve of the way Gen. McChrystal expanded U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, and the hasty manner in which the Iraqi army was trained under his predecessors leading to some commanders being appointed who later became members of sectarian death squads. Under his command the U.S. limited its role in Afghanistan and Iraq and handed more responsibility to local forces. Gen. Dunford who succeeded Dempsey as chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff for the U.S. follows the cautious approach set by Dempsey. Dempsey's approach extends to what he believes is an Heisenberg effect in physics where when you you observe or touch something it changes the way it functions and operates. For critics such as Senator McCain, who served in Vietnam as a pilot, if Dempsey did not want to intervene in some country, he could invent the reasons not to get involved. President Obama exceeded the caution exercized by Dempsey, leading to a situation where the U.S. after hasty action under a Republican president seemed to lurch in the opposite direction under his Democratic successor by not taking action where U.S. presence was needed, followed by a corrective course to make up for this....

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Elizabeth Rosenthal looks at Obamacare's contribution to cost containment in 2013-2014. Rosenthal says its is a kind of delicate maneuvring at the edges, because serious work needs to be done. The fee-for-service and many of the drivers for increases in medical costs, the old system of pricing, are still in place. In 20 years at the current rate and after Obamacare health care will still take 25% of the U.S. budget if nothing is done. Healthcare costs are about half that of the U.S. in some of the advanced European countries. She calls Obamacare a trickle down theory of cost containment becaue it leaves most of the drivers for cost increase in place and works at the margins. Princeton economist Uwe Reinhardt calls it an ugly patch on a somewhat ugly system. Rosenthal cites the armies of consultants anticipating every move to reduce prices, and working on "strategic billing'' to increase revenues for hospitals and doctors. For those who say the prices are now up more slowly than in the past, Michael Chernew of the Harvard Medical School, has this to say- its like a diet, reminding us that that we haven't even lost weight, just gaining weight slower than before. ...

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IBM's Watson Computer business has set a target of $1 billion in sales by 2018 and $10 billion by 2024. Current sales are in the $100 million range. Manoj Saxena is the head of the Watson business unit. The Watson ranks medical treatments by "confidence scores" and incorporates learning from errors. The way Watson works is for IBM engineers to study the technical details of a customers business and store this information for the computer to use. Uses so far are insurer WellPoint using it for determining if doctor's treatments meet company guidelines and a patient's insurance policy. M.D. Anderson Cancer Center is developing a version that recommends leukemia treatments for patients by data mining medical literature. Watson was moved to commercial phase in 2011 after beating 2 Jeopardy champions. IBM has a $15 million deal, its largest so far, with M.D. Anderson. It has taken frequent interaction between developers and IBM engineers to develop a version that recommends cancer treatments. The versions are only as good as how well knowledge in the field is translated into usable software, a long and difficult process. Applications in health care are seen as the best prospects for revenue generation. Google with its data mining capabilities is seen as the closest competitor....

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The NYT report that provides details on what Iran agreed to in the deal reached in Geneva on November 23, 2013 with western nations and the P5+1 that includes Russia and China. It provides a 6 month period in which additional steps to secure that Iran's program is limited to peaceful uses can be achieved. It also slows the Iranian nuclear weapons program by about one month according to this report, and gives additional warning if Iran moves in that direction. Not enough to dismantle Iran's nuclear enrichment program which is what Israel, Saudi Arabia want to see. France has called for tougher steps to limit the nuclear program in prior negotiating sessions. U.S. president Obama has looked for a compromise which would provide the opportunity to do this at a later stage, possibly through a series of smaller agreements. The sticking point is Iran's insistence that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes like other signatories to the UN Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty. This may be the only agreement that could be reached at this time, leaving tougher negotiations for a later stage when more trust and credibility is achieved, without the risk of jeopardizing a future agreement that goes further and seriously tackles the problem....

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Enrique Pena Nieto, assumes office as the new president of Mexico in Nov. 2012. His focus is on implementing a 13 point agenda which includes crime prevention, better schooling and employment opportunties, new train lines, expanding internet access, and support for social programs for the poor. He said there were two Mexico's - one that was benefitting from the global economy and modernization, and the other which was falling behind and hurting Mexico's image abroad. Economist Videgaray, close advisor to Nieto, is now the new Finance Minister. Videgaray says there is a common misconception that the PRI which ruled Mexico for so long is back in power. But times have changed. The PRI of today is no longer the PRI of yesterday, and understands that it like any other party can be voted out of power if it does not provide good government, says Videgaray. The focus of the new government will be on efficiency and modernization. Doing this will require the cooperation of the opposition parties, as Nieto won only 38% of the vote in a three way election against Mota and Obrador. He does not control Congress and the PRI opposed the legislation of the Calderon government during its term in office....

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The government bailout of Fannie and Freddie was expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars according to some estimates during the financial crisis in 2008-2009. The costs peaked at $187 billion in 2011. The transfer of $59.4 billion by Fannie Mae to the U.S. Treasury in 2013 lowers the net cost to $60.5 billion. The net cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP has decreased to less than $23 billion. At one point the cost of TARP reached $419 billion for the U.S. Treasury. The government sold the last of its shares in private insurance company AIG and made $22.7 billion in gains. Treasury and Fed loaned $182 billion to AIG and at one point owned 90% of the company. Chrysler exited the TARP bailout program in 2011 at a net cost to the U.S. government of $1.2 billion. So far in May 2013 the GM bailout cost $19.6 billion, this would come down to about $11.82 billion if the U.S. government sold its GM shares at the price in May 2013. The U.S. Federal Reserve says it has not lost money in any of its emergency lending facilities, even though some loans are outstanding. The FDIC says its fees from rescue programs exceed losses....