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Marcellus Shale natural gas prices are monthly average of $2.80 per million BTU compared to benchmark U.S. prices for natural gas of $3.61 in Nov. 2013. The low prices of natural gas are leading to closing of more coal powered plants in the Pennsylvania, and W. Virgina, where a glut of natural gas is developing with few pipelines in the region. For the U.S. coal lost market share down to 37% in 2012 from about 50% of the electricity generated in the U.S. Over 100 coal burning generators were closed in the U.S. since 2011 because of lower natural gas prices and the federal government's stricter pollution limits for power plants.

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MacKinnon argues that (while correcting the trade imbalance by American consumers increasing savings over time and becoming frugal), the stable exchange rate for the yuan and the dollar helps global economic growth by making it possible for China to engage in fiscal stimulus beyond the half trillion dollars it plans for 2009. From the Chinese point of view anchoring the yuan to the dollar at a stable exchange rate help China's internal price level. After the inflation rate exploded to 20% in 1993-95, the fixed rate anchor helped China regain price stability. The China stimulus in his words is most effective with a stable exchange rate.

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Mishkin a Columbia University Prof. who is a Fed Governor close to Ben Bernanke presented a paper at the Jackson Hole conference saying that the best strategy was for the Fed to act quickly as house prices fall and cut rates. Under this strategy the Fed would hit bottom in rate cuts a little over 2 years compared to about 4 years if the Fed waited to see what happens to the housing market and the housing market was in steep decline by the time the Fed acted decisively. This would mean less lost economic output. This makes sense as the housing market is going to see a serious impact.

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After increasing the price of subsidized diesel, the Indian government lays out a plan to cut the deficit over five years. The plan sets a goal for the deficit of 5.3% for fiscal year ending March 2013 to come down to 3% by 2017. Earlier India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), had said the government needed to take action on the deficit before it reduced interest rates. The RBI faces a difficult task in reducing rates to stimulate the slowing economy because inflation was 7.8% in Sept. 2012. At the same time the sharp decline in growth is a cause for serious concern- the most recent RBI forecast for GDP growth made in July for the current fiscal year through March 2013 is 6.5%. This may not be achieved as other economists have lowered the estimate to as low as 5% because of slow government action in economic reforms, high interest rates, and the uncertain global economc outlook. The last action by the RBI to lower interest rates was a drop of half a percentage point in April 2012. Much of the momentum for the Indian economy was lost in the first half of 2012 with the governments vacillating steps for opening the retail and other sectors to foreign investment. Only in October 2012 has prime minister Manmohan Singh set a clear direction by dropping coalition partners opposed to reforms and announcing new policies for foreign investment....

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The UK vaccination drive gives a strong boost to business and household confidence in the economic recovery for 2021.

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Us efforts led by Piedmont Lithium in North Carolina to build supplies for the lithium needed in electric vehicle batteries. The effort to get the first US big new lithium mine into operation is part of a broader effort to  build a US supply chain for the ultra light lithium metal that is highly conductive. In fact the modern lithium mining industry started in the rolling hills of the Piedmont region in North Carolina. At that time in the 1950's it was needed for nuclear bombs. Today China mines 10% of world's supplies. Abermarle Corp of the US based in Charlotte extracts lithium from mines in Australia and Chile which have large deposits of lithium. President Biden has signed an executive order calling for a review of supply chains for critical materials, including lithium as the US looks to build its own supply chains and become independent of supplies of metals from China. The lack of such supplies has become a strategic vulnerability for the US.  The growth of the electric vehicle industry and the efforts to reduce climate change emissions means higher demand for lithium. ...

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President Biden gets his $1.9 trillion aid package through the U.S. Congress with 220 votes for and 211 against. All Democrats except one voted in favor and all Republicans voted against. Earlier the $15 minimum wage was dropped from the bill to get it through the Senate. Also kept were income criteria to prevent the $1400 check to individuals in households going to the most affluent income earners. The Senate vote was close - 50 to 49 in a party line vote. The Biden aid package comes on top of earlier aid under president Trump in 2020. This aid is likely to provide enough stimulus to the US economy to restore growth to levels that were there before the pandemic hit.

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Sebastian Dullien of the University of Applied Sciences in Berlin says the economy is growing strongly at this time as export orders have rebounded and are up 20% over the low point last year and 40% for aut products, but risks loom for the second half of 2010 and 2011 by which time the reduction of the stimulus spending and lower global growth would pose risks. The failure of a bank or a return of the financial crisis in some form could even push the economy into a recession. And even in the first half of next year he sees more layoff as the rebound fall short of the high points of production reached earlier.

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Mark Fields, takes over from Mulally in 2014, as CEO of Ford Motor Company. Fields headed Ford's Argentina operations and Mazda in Japan, before heading the luxury car division and North American Operations. He made it through a dfficult period in 2008-2010 when it was not clear whether he would survive the turmoil that was shaking Detroit car companies. He is respected for supporting CEO Mulally's effort to change the deteriorated culture at Ford by bringing a new humility and honesty to tackle problems upfront, and for supporting better relations with the plant workers through wide bonus sharing. He is a New Jersey native who attended Rutgers University and Harvard B-School before joining Ford.

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November 2012 light vehicle sales of cars and light trucks shows sales up significantly for Honda at 39%, Toyota 17%, and sales at Ford up 3%, GM 6%. GM decides to reduce production and not reduce prices with incentives that match competitors. VW sales increased 29%, Audi 24%, Daimler 13%, and BMW up 45%. Experts expect the better conditions in the U.S. auto market to continue especially as many cars that reach a life of 11 years need to be replaced. Light vehicle sales reach 1.14 million in Nov. 2012, up 15% over the prior year, and seasonally adjusted auto sales of 15.5 million are the highest since Jan 2008, according to Autodata Corp.

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The Irish prime minister Varadkar says it is time to move on. When he assumed office he was the first from an ethnic minority background to lead Ireland, the son of an Irish mother and an Indian immigrant father. He took Ireland through the crises of coronavirus pandemic, Brexit, and improved unemployment and budget shortfalls. Recently he accepted defeat on a referendum intended to remove language in the Irish Constitution on a clause about "a woman's life within the home." Disagreements over the language of the referendum led to its not getting approved on International Women's Day by about 70% of the vote with 44% of people voting. It suggest there was no enthusiasm and its relevance at this time was not understood. It is not clear why there was a need for this referendum in the first place to remove one text of the constitution that respects the role of family and mother's contributions in the home. During the pandemic for instance women played a major role, and sometimes took on a greater share of the burden. Efforts to have women's participation as shown in Japan and India does not require constitutional wording to be changed. Japan has done remarkably well and India is about to do this. And removing the wording about women's role at home, instead of encouraging or adding wording about women actively participating in the workforce and actions to make that possible, accomplishes little. Coupling this with a wording that includes gay families in the definition of family while removing the role of women in the family language seemed to be making changes that had little to do with each other. ...

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Liz Sly of the Washington Post provides this exceptional account of the different phases of the war in Syria originating in 2011 with the Syria democracy protests, suppression of protests by the Assad regime, civil war by 2012 , Russian intervention by Putin, the U.S. under Obama and France under Hollande on the sidelines in 2012-2014. The result is a breakup of Syria by 2014 with coastal areas under the Assad regime supported by Russia and Iran, the Kurdish controlled areas, areas controlled by various rebel groups, and the control of other areas by Islamic State which also gained control of Mosul in Iraq. France conducting an air campaign in Syria in 2015 in response to terrorist attacks originating in Syria. With a number of foreign countries involved in support of Sunni and Shia factions in the conflict, the Turks opposing Kurdish autonomy, the U.S. supporting Kurdish forces after withdrawal from Iraq under president Obama, the situation by the beginning of 2016 was much more complex than in 2011. The five year period led to a situation where half of the population of Syria of 22 million is displaced or turns into refugees, about 2 million in refugee camps in Turkey, and 500,000 seeking asylum in Germany and Austria. In Iraq an additional 2 million are displaced or refugees with the Sunni-Shia conflict. Understanding of the events and insights over these 5 years can be gained from the group- "Events for the democracy protests and the struggle for freedom in Syria." The intervention of foreign countries and the missing element of U.S. leadership in the region in 2011-2015 as the U.S. and France remain preoccupied with economic crisis, lead to a situation where most Syrians decide to leave the country entirely. ...

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Peaple points out how Eni's ownership in oil services provider Saipem affects its share price performance. Eni has an excellent record in oil exploration and is expected to increase its production by 2-3% over the 2013-2018 period with a 15% return on capital, according to Citigroup. Dividend yield is above 6%. Share price is 8.8 times expected earnings for 2014.

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Weight loss drug Alli available over the counter at $60 for 90 pills has successful introduction by Glaxo. About 2 million starter packages sold in 4 months. It works by blocking fat absorption of fat in the intestine and so requires persons using it to stay on a fat restricted diet or face side effects of sometimes uncontrollable diarrhea or flatulence.

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There is a price for a socialist state run society adopting capitalism without understanding it. Russia experienced this in the 1990's as the Soviet system collapsed and the capitalist system took its place by 1990 with flagrant abuses. Only to be stabilized in the Putin years till the war in Ukraine affected the Russian economy. China avoided this fate by continuing its accelerated path to industrialization till the 2009 financial crisis. But hidden in its seemingly successful modernization effort was the role of LGFV's and selling of land to support the LGFV's. Local governments did not take on debt themselves, they passed on the debt to Local Government Financing Vehicles LGFV's- about 8 trillion dollars of debt 80%-90% not serviceable for interest payments, zombie status requiring borrowing for annual spending.  Most city councils or mayors did not understand these vehicles were debt and some even asked "do we have to pay it back?" LGFV's were not understood by mayors and city councils brought up under a socialist state run economy. They used it to follow the central government in Beijing's orders to come up with projects to boost growth year after year to rates of growth of 10% in the 1990's and 2000's, heedless of the risks because they never really understood the capitalist system and its pitfalls.  As long as land could be sold there was some revenue for local governments and room for shifting $8 trillion in debt to other LGFV's. Once the construction industry collapsed and companies went bankrupt their were few buyers for land. The central government cannot take on some of this $8 trillion in debt. As a result China is now facing what the Russians faced - a crisis from lack of grasp of the severe pitfalls of capitalism when its risks are not understood for economies that were in the 20th century experiencing upheavals, wars and then socialist state run economies. What this means is that the Chinese economy will slow, has no choice but to slow down for the next decade to find solutions to this debt overhang over its economy and industrial plans. It also means China's support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict is also problematic for China's internal growth to meet the aspirations of its people. As long as the administration in the US continues to pursue its own economic policies for growth as Biden has done by investing in the American economy, it will have the opportunity to lead the free world and be able to hold out hope for aspirations of countries and regions such as India, Africa and Latin America. ...

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In this joint interview with Le Monde (France), Der Standard (Austria), and Financial Times (Japan) Annalena Baerbock, the Greens candidate in German elections, calls for asharp break from the policies of Merkel. Following the scale of the Biden's administration's efforts to loosen debt rules to spend massively to renovate crumbling infrastructure, Baerbock says Greens support loosening debt rules to spend $500 billion over 10 years on Germany's broken infrastructure. In this rare interview she says- " The major lesson from the euro crisis is that austerity can end up suffocating an economy, which is why fiscal reform was needed. Germany and Europe need to be the engine room for innovation again." Baerbock calls for a complete transformation of the German economy to achieve carbon neutrality in 20 years. She says Merkel was soft on Russia and China. She says Germany is not dependent on China for climate change policy. China is pursuing climate change because it is in her own interest. Baerbock would impose duties on Chinese imports that violate environmental standards or are subsidized. Where Merkel saw Germany as a country of 80 million and compared to China's 1.2 billion with which she was overawed,  Baerbock sees the European Union as a sovereign power with a population of 500 million. Where Merkel was faltering on European integration, Baerbock believes in European integration- "We want to make Germany a driving force for European integration."   ...

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How 13% unemployment is affecting Lawrence, Massachusetts, with a heavy Latino population, heavier concentration of foreclosures and poorly managed finances, and high rate of unemployment that affects those with high school diplomas, and younger people. Unemployment nationwide is 7.3% among whites and 10.9% among Latinos. And places like Lawrence have a young and undereducated population, with the unemployment rate for teenagers at 21.6% and for those without a highschool diploma at 12.6%. Surprising as it may sound the town was going through a revival before this happened suddenly without warning. It was a fading industrial city 25 miles northwest of Boston. A new $110 million high school, three new grade schools, and a renovated city hall. And a developer refurbished several abandoned mills along the Merricmack River, and leased out 1.4 million square feet to some 200 companies employing 2000 workers.

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Full Yield is a startup in Boston that is trying to help address the nation's obesity problem by introducing healthier foods and meals in cafeterias. It plans to introduce a line of Full Yield branded food made from fresh items and natural ingredients for sale in corporate cafeterias and prepared food sections of local supermarkets. It is based on a simple idea that if you eat healthier food you will be healthier. A study in the Jan-Feb issue of journal Health Affairs says 75% of the $2.5 trillion in health care spending deals with obesity, Type 2 diabetes, heart disease and cancer. And how much of this traceable to obesity and bad eating habits, smoking and lack of exercize? This study says most of the cases are preventable by changing these behaviours. Dr. Kenneth Horpe, chairman of the department of health policy and management at Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, shows that if trends continue U.S. annual health care costs related to obesity would reach $344 billion by 2018, which is 20% of total health care spending. In 2009 it accounts for 9%. Thorpe says if even the 1987 levels of obesity were reached it would free up enough money to cover the uninsured population today. For American companies the problem has grown to alarming proportions and yet no nationwide coordinated plan bringing together companies, government, universities, public interest organizations, and other groups exists in the U.S. The CEO of U.S. grocery chain Safeway, Steven Burd, says Safeway was spending $1 billion to cover health care insurance for workers by 2005, with costs rising 10% a year- this meant putting out twice in health care insurance than Safeway's earnings and hitting another $500 million by 2010. Between 2004-2009 the costs of insurance surged 31%, making this the fastest growing single corporate expense, according to Towers Perrin. This reduces incomes of workers as companies pass on part of the extra cost, and reduces the profits that can be put back in new investment for economic growth....

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With interest rates at 22% and inflation of over 20% Turkey's foreign investment and consumer driven economy continues to struggle. In Istanbul's markets fruit vendors say buyers buy half the quantity they normally used to buy. Prices are high with the loss of value of the Turkish currency the lira, that lost about 40% of its value in the space of about 1 year. Turkish president Erdogan has in the past increased support with the economic boom in Turkey, which is now fading. High interest rates need to be brought down for the economy to recover. Erdogan fires the central bank chief for not cutting interest rates. In the past foreign investors continued investments in Turkey, yet today the confidence of foreign investors is declining, affecting the value of the Lira currency. High interest rates are a central bank policy response to keep the value of the Lira from declining further, but at a cost for ordinary Turkish people who pay high prices, reducing the standard of living. High interest rates to attract foreign capital to support the Lira also reduce investment and employment with the higher cost of borrowing.  The high prices because imports cost more with a weak Lira mean less can be purchased reducing what can be purchased with existing incomes. ...

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Two Syrian cities are among the oldest in the world going back to 3000 BC. They are Aleppo and Damascus. This is close to when Varanasi on the Ganges in India was settled. Aleppo is older than Damascus.  The only European city that comes close is Plovdiv, Bulgaria, says this report in The Guardian. Most of the Syrian region is populated by Syrian Sunnis about 75% and there are Christian, 10%, Shia Alawite 11%, and other minorities in Syria.  The Syrian Civil War 2011-2024 destroyed most of the old city of Aleppo. Syria has 110 miles of Mediterranean coastline, mountains along the coastline and and area inland of wheat cultivation along the Euphrates river and the Syrian desert near Iraq in the east, Turkey to the north with Kurds in that area, and Jordan in the south. The Ottoman Turks ruled from 1516 to 1918. In 1920 a French Mandate was setup in Syria till 1943. Following the Second World War Syria was an independent nation and briefly joined Egypt in the UAR United Arab Republic.  ...

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The Economist describes the fraud in the election and the odious group of warlords and crooks that Karzai has pulled together to get support for this election. If they get as reward positions in the ministries then "the war is over" according to one diplomat. And without acredible government the chances are poor for any"good outcomes." Eide, the UN diplomat in the country says ultimately this will be decided not by governments but by people sitting at thier kitchen tables making up their mind as the follow the information in the media. And the President has only 37% of Democrats with him who want to see more troops in Afghanistan in a recent poll.

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Spain's banks have government debt holdings as a percentage of bank assets of 6.8% compared to 13.1% for Italy's banks. This is based on data available from the IMF. But Italian banks are far better capitalized than Spanish banks. Bank shares of Italy and Spain hit post Lehman lows in July 2011, but Italian bank shares are likely to recover faster than Spanish bank shares. Italian banks raised 8 billion euros of capital in 2011 and most banks have an average core Tier 1 ratio of over 8%. By contrast Spain's bank sector is perceived by markets as undercapitalized and the IPO's of savings banks Bankia and Banca Civica will be affected by the unsettled markets.

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Christian Ude, the mayor of Munich from the Social Democrats party, says the Christian Social Union's (CSU) hold on power in Bavaria is likely to be challenged in coming elections. One of the reasons for this is that people are moving to Munich from all over Germany because many companies are hiring. Siemens, Audi, BMW and many Mittelstand companies are based in Munich, and unemployment is the lowest in Germany. The CSU, a partner in Merkel's coalition government, is particularly critical of measures to aid Greece, and steps taken by the ECB to buy the bonds of Spain and Italy to reduce borrowing costs, making it difficult for Merkel to provide flexibility in her negotiations with other eurozone countries.