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Starmer and Home Office say 16,400 deportations have been made in 6 months to home countries in Jan 2025, this is inthe first 6 months of the Labour government. This includes asylum seekers, illegal migrants, and foreign criminals. Starmer is shown at the City of London police headquarters on Jan 30, 2025. 

This says the Home Office is the highest since 2017 when 17,328 were returned.

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Compared to previous downturns, this one is differnt in that migration is slowing everywhere. This means economic recvery will be slower, because there won't be new migrants to depressed housing cities like Phoenix and others to reduce the stock of unsold homes.

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Roy Cooper of North Carolina says Kamala Harris has visited the state 15 times and will be there next week. He says North Carolina is the fastest growing state in the country and was lost by 1.3%, that this time it can be won as it was won by Obama in 2008. Cooper,  two term governor of North Carolina says Mark Robinson the Republican candidate for Governor is the most extreme candidate for Governor in the US right now, with open disrespect for women, and it will draw voters to voting booths in large numbers. Cooper's view is that it will help Harris, that "all of the confluence of the issues makes this state a state Kamala Harris can win, and I believe will win." In 2020 Roy Cooper won by 250,000 votes or 5% of the vote margin over  Lt. Governor Dan Forest. The key to North Carolina is in the I-85 corridor, a suburban region with cities and university towns that are home to more than two-thirds of the state's population and casts almost 70% of the state's vote. The state's five largest counties-- Mecklenburg home to Charlotte) Wake (home to Raleigh), Guilford (home to Greensboro), Forsyth (home to Winston Salem) and Durham (home to Durham)--are all located in this area. Making many visits to the state, and strong grassroots effort is essential. Highly affluent and educated migrants from the Northeast, who traditionally tend to vote Democratic; as well as African Americans, Hispanics (an increasing population in the state), and college students are voting blocs that are likely to vote heavily on economic issues, abortion, student debt relief, and issues raised by extreme views of Mark Robinson and the future direction of the Nation. ...

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WSJ Editorial Board on 2025 DJT version of Eisenhower's 1954 Operation Wetback to curb foreign born employment. After the Biden years when foreign born employment surged the decrease by 773,000 shown by Trend Macro in foreign born employment for Jan- April 2025 in the WSJ, is an adjustment from the effects of Biden open border policies. This also prevents downward pressure on wages for American workers in construction, hospitality and retail- the story of the last 20 years. This is similar to what would have been seen in the Eisenhower years after Operation Wetback led by Gen. Swing and AG Brownell in 1954. Just as by 1956 the foreign born employment declined after years of uninhibited illegal migrant growth and open borders in the years of World War II. Note that Mexico's agribusiness owners were against open borders in that period and the Mexican government was also against open borders and the loss of labor from Mexico needed in agribusiness. Today the situation is somewhat different but in the sense of an adjustment it may be very similar. Just as in 1956 Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 had a mandate for making this adjustment DJT has won a mandate for a similar adjustment in 2024. ...

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This piece in Der Spiegel points out that Brexit may be an opportunity if European leaders recognize that there can be different levels of unity, and that different countries in the EU can advance at their own pace with Germany and France providing a core group. There is no longer the need for continual enlargement of the European Union as has happened before. It also offers a time to take some deep breaths and reflect on the progress so far and where it has come short, what to do about it, such as the bureaucracy that has grown in Brussels, the different views on immigration, and public sentiment. Actually the whole progress towards the European Community, and then the European Union has evolved over time. In the immediate postwar years, after one setback Adenauer once said during the difficult negotiations in 1951-52 between France and Germany to set up the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Community and the European Union- "arme Europa, arme Europa," (poor Europe, poor Europe). The Dutch and Belgian delegates had strong differences for the headquarters for the ECSC- Turin was rejected, Liege and Brussels were proposed, until Monnet was made head of the High Authority of the European Coal and Steel Community with headquarters in Luxembourg. Monnet himself considered stepping down a couple of times because of differences, and the Editor of Le Monde described Monnet's plans for European integration as "a leap in the dark." This was the first of many difficult steps in the evolution of the European Union. Nationalist feeling was nothing new, as the Gaullists opposed Monnet's drive for European unity when it differed from their ideas. Still Monnet persevered and progress took place every ten years as it must now.  ...

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Eurobarometer Survey conducted by the European Commission on what people say about staying inside the European Union show increasing support inside the UK and inside member countries of the EU. In a survey done in March 2019, Eurobarometer Survey involving 1000 people in each of the 28 countries of the EU shows 53% of respondents in the UK supporting Remaining in the European Union, 35% Leave , and 12% undecided. Asked whether Britain had made the right choice to leave the EU in the referendum 54% of respondents said Britain made the wrong choice, only 38% said yes. There is a definite shift in sentiment that reflects the way the changes in the EU since the referendum was held- with only a trickle of immigration to Europe and now return of some refugees to their home countries, economic aid to African countries to reduce migrants. The economies of Europe that struggled through austerity policies such as Spain have show strong growth of 3% over 3 years, and of Portugal and Greece recovering. News at the time of austerity policies, uncontrolled immigration to Europe, affected public sentiment at the time of Britain's first referendum on EU membership. In the EU countries there is a definite upturn in sentiment- 66% would vote to remain in the EU, only 17% would vote to leave. The chaoic Brexit process in the UK has also led to the upturn. 68% of respondents in the EU countries said their countries had benefited from membership in the European Union, the largest support seen in 25 years. ...

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Under the new DJT nominee the FBI's focus shifts to illegal migrants and illegal fentanyl flows causing 150,000 deaths in 2 years, and street crime from national security threats and white collar crimes. This was evident in the hearings for the FBI nominee in the Senate as response to Senators questions the FBI nominee stated he wanted to cut the number of deaths from fentanyl as the top priority. To do this FBI employees will no longer concentrated around the nation's capital and instead be spread out across the whole country, including the FBI center in Huntsville, Alabama.

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Jeanne Whalen on the Two Speed Economy in the US September 2025- diverging paths of low and high income Americans. With the new administration in 2025 priorities shift to immigration and what to do about 14 million illegal migrants from Latin America and other places, war on fentanyl and drug trafficking gangs with hundreds of thousands of lives lost to fentanyl and drugs in the US, crime and safety which includes the unprecedented illegal movement of drug trafficking in the Nation, and to a bold posture on using US advantages of its huge market to get European Union, Japan, South Korea, and China to level the playing field on trade bring jobs home.The Biden administration had already conceded to DJT's approach in its one term presidency by shifting on uncontrolled illegal migration but not fast enough, by not removing DJT's tariffs, and failing to take an aggressive posture on fentanyl and drug trafficking. Of the DJT plan US has tariff based revenues of 10--15% for all countries imports into US can that it redirect to groups to soften any effects of tariffs. DJT administration oil transition policy of stretching out the transition to give middle class and lower classes cost of living relief was also accepted by the Biden administration and is now the policy of Democrat run California state government.  The US economy was slowing in 2024 under the Biden administration. What has changed in 2025 is that the US stock markets are responding to steps taken by the DJT Republican administration to lower the cost of doing business by softening regulations, and giving US business the upper hand in different industries, and rebuilding the manufacturing sector with calls for EU and Japan/South Korea to invest more in the US as a quid pro quo for market access. This has led to increase in the value of market portfolios of the income earners above 250,000, or 10% of American households. As this happens the process of trade renegotiation has introduced some uncertainty in 2025 and businesses are looking for more clarity before increasing investment and slowing job hiring which hurts younger people entering the job market and lower income Americans. Were things better under Biden? Government Covid assistance and payouts in the early years 2020-2021 helped lower income workers, as this faded and the cost of living autos, housing increased sharply under Biden in 2022-2024 the situation deteriorated. The situation today is similar to the situation in 2024 with the difference in 2025 that inflation is coming down just as government help is receding. And added factor is the DJT administration plan to tackle head on the increasing cost of Medicaid to about $1 trillion by adding new requirements and reducing subsidies. The federal workforce had a disproportionate share of black workers and the policy changes to reduce the federal workforce have increased black unemployment from 6.1% under Biden in August 2024 to 7.5 % a year later. Hispanics have seen slight improvement in unemployment to 5.3% in 2025, and the middle class incomes also have held up and are holding steady. Meantime Bloomberg points out that one third of people in the top 10% are living paycheck by paycheck because of high cost of housing, university education for children, and inflation.     ...

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Who is Caludia Sheinbaum, expected to be new president of Mexico? What would a Sheinbaum administration in Mexico look like? What would interaction with the US look like on immigration, the border and the economy? WSJ's Jose Cordoba, Santiago Perez and Steve Fisher try to answer these questions in this detailed report from Mexico City. Sheinbaum was mayor of Mexico City and was environmental chief during Lopez Obrador's term as Mayor of Mexico City. Obrador has remained popular throughout his 6 years as Mexican president with favorable ratings consistently of over 60%. Mexico limits a president to one six year term. Obrador's party Morena derives from Mexico's indigenous culture and reflects Mexico's history in the 20th century of passion for protecting its national assets including the oil industry from foreign domination or influence, and ardently seeks respect for dignity of Mexicans and Mexican culture. Under Obrador Mexico reached a level of living with organized crime gangs after decades of war against these gangs. The US needs support from Mexico for its border policies and control of border. Obrador was a son of a provincial shopkeeper and spent little time outside Mexico.  Sheinbaum sees him as her mentor after work supporting migrant welfare in California with Carlos Imaz, during a period when she finished doctoral work at UC Berkeley and Stanford. Her father was a chemical engineer and her mother a biology professor. Her grandparents were of East European Lithuanian and Bulgarian origin. Sheinbaum says she follows Obrador's principles, yet it will be Claudia that will run the government. Her policies include setting up 100 industrial parks for Mexico's development, and setting up professional police services to control crime throughout Mexico's different states. ...

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For eight long years for event after event, rally after rally, and debate after debate the US journalism community failed over and over again to correct misstatements and wild exaggeration made by the first candidate and then former president Trump. David Muir and Linsey Davis maybe remembered in history for setting the record straight for the first time in 9 long years as they corrected every false statement or exaggeration in the Pittsburgh Harris Trump television debate. NYT reports Trump stated that a governor had supported killing of babies. Linsey Davis- “There is no state in this country where it is legal to kill a baby after it’s born.”  Trump painted a portrait of an America besieged by migrant crime. David Muir- “As you know, the F.B.I. says overall violent crime is coming down in this country.” Time and again during the debate Linsey Davis and David Muir corrected misstatement of facts. Something amazingly- and a huge comment on the way reporting has been practiced in America on its very real problems and opportunity, on its frustrations and its possibilities- that amazingly had never happened till September 10 in Pittsburgh. Global literacy, cultural literacy in America, can only grow and thrive when statements are made by correct observation as in a society based on science and technology. ...

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Compared to the situation in North Africa in 2016 with emigration to Europe and the migrant crisis happening without any preparation to prevent it in 2015-2016, Germany and France are acting in coordination with Russia and Turkey, Saudis, UAE, to provide stability to the region. Angela Merkel will host leaders Macron, U.S. Secretary of State  Pompeo, and representatives of foreign powers in Berlin to work out a deal for disengagement of foreign powers. Turkey and the United Nations support a government of National Accord in Tripoli which controls the west of Libya, and a Libyan-American Mr. Haftar has a militia that controls the south and east with the help of Egypt, UAE, and Russia. Earlier the U.S. under president Trump had distanced itself from the region, but Mr. Trump and his advisors now see the need to engage in the region to ensure stability, and support the Europeans in the effort to prevent the large scale emigration that threatens European unity. Europe following the 2015 Merkel migrant crisis is acting with the policy of heading off both wars, terrorism and economic dislocation that fuels emigration right at the points of origin, before it even starts. This shows that the French after action in Ivory Coast and Mali and the Germans with aid to Africa are remaining involved in development and stability programs in Africa, lessons learned from 2015. The goal of the Berlin meetings is to arrange high level agreement for foreign powers to withdraw from destabilizing the Arab regions in North Africa particularly Libya by supplying weapons and support to quarreling factions. ...

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DJT takes action on Venezuela for not taking action fast enough to accept deportees from the eight million that left the Latin American country over the last 10 years because of mismanaging the economy, runaway inflation and repression of dissent. He also cited that free and fair elections were not honored by the regime of president Maduro who followed after the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2013.

The US immigration problem comes largely from the Venezuela problem. What happened there hurt the US with the flow of millions of migrants across the border from Venezuela and gangs other elements entering the US. 

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The Alternative for Germany AfD party's increasing popularity in the former communist eastern part of Germany based in Dresden, is hurting its popularity in the west. It is expected to do well in elections in Saxony where city of Dresden is located, and in Thuringia and in Brandenburg in election in the fall of 2019. Much of its support has come from being the only opposition to the open door refugee policy followed by chancellor Merkel, seen as goning too far.  Merkel herself and the new CDU leader Ann Margaret Kampbrauer have decided it was not the right policy considering that many or most are economic refugees. This policy is now reversed and migrants are down to a trickle, with a new policy of foreign aid and selective intervention to troubled countries to keep economic refugees in their home countries. This report says any gains in the east could come with loss of many more votes in the west as the party loses its popularity in the west. This is because far right parties always had done better in the east with its older population, higher unemployment and loss of population. This is a legacy from the communist period in eastern part of Germany, and the merging of the two Germanys that led to westward migration and loss of economic potential in the east.  ...

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Claire Gatinois and Soleyn de Royer's interesting essay on the life and times of Emmanuel Macron who started as one who would bring new life to the Fifth Republic but over 7 years sees that he has made poor choices and comes across as brash and inexperienced. His Movement was formed very quickly during the waning days of the Hollande administration of the Socialist Party. By bringing in Macron Hollande did what Blair and Clinton had done for Labour and Democrats thinking they were somehow moving to the centre in tackling the budget, deficit and the economy. Clinton hired as Treasury Secretary Goldman Sach's Robert Rubin and Harvard's Lawrence Summers, Obama hired Timothy Geithner, who like Macron in the Hollande cabinet lacked all conviction for improving the life of workers and the middle class in the US. Clinton setup China's entry into the World Trading Organization without grasping or understanding the economic framework of American manufacturing and thinking of industry leaders who were in that time in the  mood for outshoring everything made in the US with the inflexibility of American labor. Geithner like Cameron's Osborne had little affinity with the working or middle class, and did little to correct the abuses of banking professionals behind the 2009 financial crisis, which in some ways is still with us today, the pandemic being the second hit to workers and the middle class, the migrant surge an addition of mental unease. ...

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Both the Tories in Britain and the Democrats in the US were caught by surprise by the sudden surge after the pandemic of illegal migrations flows in 2023-2024 which dropped to all time lows in 2019-2021 with the covid lockdowns. Tories with factional infighting and Democrats falsely believing they were virtuous humane could not take effective decisive immediate action costing them the defeats in 2024. The size of the illegal migration problem to the UK was underestimated in 2023. Tory rhetoric alone failed to convince the British public. In the US Biden not confronting it head on also failed to reassure the American people as the US Border also meant destructive Mexico/China fentanyl flows. Even today the action proposed falls short and new US bipartisan legislation is needed to make it the law of the land, closing three decades of stealth in immigration policies. ONS now estimates that it missed 166,000 people. The real figure for the year ending June 2023 for net migration was 906,000 not 748,000 as previously estimated. In the year ending June 2024 this figure for net migration was 728,000. Labour party under Keir Starmer made setting up the new structures for tackling alarming rise in migration the top priority in 2024. That lesson was not learned in the US and the issue not confronted head on to win public confidence- the Biden support for Republican Senator Lankford's legislation on illegal migrants and the border came late in 2023 and the issue was left to fester for 2 years eroding public confidence. In the US the issue of illegal fentanyl flows at the US Border and from China makes the Border and China relations issues that required effective and immediate action overriding everything else. In the end Tories confusion and internal factions, other controversies, led to lack of vigilance and lack of effective action as net migration deceptively hit lows of 254,000, 111,000, and 254,000 in the pandemic years 2019, 2020, and 2021, only to surge tremendously to 634,000 and 906,00 in the years 2022 and 2023.  Labour's Starmer took action to make it No. 1 priority in the platform going into the 2024 election winning public confidence. A similar surge in migration happened in the US after a deceptive slowdown in the pandemic, compunded by Venezuela and central American states collapsing. ...

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Border crossings and encounters have fallen to 83,000 under president Biden with unilateral action by Biden in the absence of the Republican Lankford Biden legislation that would have shut the Border down. Border crossings of 83,000 are close to the border crossings that reached 74,000 under president Trump even with the building of a border wall. This was achieved with the support of the Mexican president and with Biden's action to effectively close the Border. The best action would have been to implement the legislation that Republican senator Lankford negotiated with Biden by February 2024 and which was allowed to languish in Congress by new Speaker Mike Johnson under the advice of the former president, which is incomprehensible as it is the first time in decades both parties came on to the same page to slow or diminish migrant entry into the US and remake the asylum laws. Many Republicans and Democrats protested this action of the new Speaker. It was a historic and missed opportunity to fix the Border once and for all, and took the courage of Senator Lankford and Biden. For this action Lankford goes down as a senator who belongs in Kennedy's Profiles of Courage, a book of Congressional leaders since 1800 whose courage and leadership have made America the leading democracy and industrialized nation that has won the respect of the world. ...

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The WSJ is still calling the president's stop fentanyl flows tariffs on CMC Canada Mexico and China economic tariffs in this editorial board opinion. It is incomprehensible that little or no mention is made in most of the media of the magnitude of injury to the US, the 490,000 deaths in America over 12 years as the result of Canada, Mexico and China not taking the needed action to stop fentanyl flows into the US. There is also the added factor of lack of a level playing field in trade which has resulted in the same communities in many cases having suffered from in the case of China loss of 25 million jobs over the last 10 years and loss of $250 billion in infrastructure and public services for schools, libraries, childcare, and health care clinics that were lost from losses in taxes for local communities in the US. This has decimated life in these communities and in small towns across America.  In the case of Mexico the illegal migrant flows that were not stopped at the border have put an added burden on already underfunded and strained public services in local communities in the US. This is the reason for much of the frustration and anger that has built up over time in these communities with the response from the DJT administration to find solutions. CMC countries could have taken action on their own, yet the US had waited too long for this action. Reciprocal in reciprocal tariffs is about fairness, a level playing field, something that China had agreed to in the spirit of the WTO entry in 1994 and American desire to aid China industrialize build a modern economy. Instead US business was coopted by China during the industrialization process 1995-2010, 2010-2020, including in the first term of the DJT administration even when tariffs were imposed. This happened with transfer of technologies happening late into the first term of the DJT administration 2016-2020, which has led to a much of the pent up frustration and action in the first 100 days of DJT in 2025.  ...

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Indian government's free ration plan called Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PM- GKAY) will continue to reach 800 million ration card holders in India for another 6 months. Under the scheme 5 kg of wheat and 1 kg of pulses are given to all 800 million ration card holders. This is a very important plan to help the people of India during the pandemic. It has helped boost upward mobility and resilience of the nation, meeting food needs of every Indian regardless of financial difficulties. In addition states such as Uttar Pradesh with about 250 million people are giving 1 kg each of bengal gram or channa, oil and salt. The Indian government says that this will ensure that "no poor household goes to bed without food during this time of recovery." One Nation One Ration Card (ONRC) operates through 500,000 ration shops in India. 610 million portability transactions are helping migrant workers outside their home states. The size and unique nature of this plan is providing the kind of social support to the vast population of the nation that has never existed before, and brings a sense of hope to hundreds of millions. ...

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Over 50% of Israelis support Iran war, only 30% oppose. As Israelis see it Iran under religious clerics is the only real threat to Israel in 2025 because of Iran's policy of proxies for attacking Israel in Lebanon and in Gaza, and because of it's development of nuclear weapons and openly threatening Israel. The US involvement in Iranian politics dates from the Dulles and Eisenhower era with the CIA's involvement in the overthrow of the democratically elected Iranian prime minister Mossadegh in 1953. Working with British intelligence and for British oil interests, US oil interests, the US made a serious mistake as seen from today's perspective. The moral is British or French colonial policy stay from it America- George Washington himself would advise. Israel is paying the price and is asked to correct what was done by the British in Iran since 1850's- to bring back a peaceful democracy with the kind of struggles even Greece experienced. The unelected wholly unrepresentative government of the Shah who was put in the place of a democratically elected government was a serious mistake. The British and French colonialism and oil interests of Britain plus American oil companies have led to US getting on the wrong side of the Vietnamese people in the war in Vietnam against the French that ended at the battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954. It had repercussions in the Vietnam war under Kennedy and Johnson. This has happened in the case of Iran where the US has gained so little and lost so much in lives and resources sunk in the ensuing was in Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Yemen. The European Union suffered from the huge migrant flow from Syria with splits in its ranks. The distractions of these 30 years through Reagan and Rumsfeld who supported Hussein in Iraq against Iran in a balancing act is now foolishness, of elder Bush as he diverted attention to a long desert war in Kuwait, of Bush and then Obama in Afghanistan, who wasted enormous resources and impoverished the American people. Leaving legacy wars for Trump and Biden to handle. After Vietnam another failed chapter of Iran in the US for the American people by incompetent leaders who were taken in by French and British colonial and oil interests in wrong directions.   ...

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Supply chains are unraveling in many industries with the tariffs imposed by president Trump on imports from China, and renegotiated trade deals with South Korea and other countries. The growth in the value of foreign value added was possible with cuts in tariffs in the period after 1990 and the emergence of China as a low cost manufacturer with cheap labor. Foreign value added increased from 20% in 1990 to 30% in 2011. The impact on factory towns and communities in the U.S. of trade in which the U.S. manufacturing declined as it shifted to China resulted in the surge in support for president Trump. The tariffs war with China is an effort to correct this imbalance. The result is a shift in supply chains away from China in some industries and gradual shift in others. Rising wages in China had already resulted in early shifts and the the environmental costs adding to this trend. President Trump temporarily suspended a threatened imposition of duties of 25% on $325 billion of Chinese imports. A renegotiated Nafta agreement with Mexico for automobile production and determination of U.S. based content and wages was designed to reset the relationship with Mexico and the auto supply chain for production in Mexico. A threat of tariffs on European auto imports to the U.S. is set for a decision in November. The trade dispute between Japan and South Korea and threat of tariffs also shows the effect this is having in other countries. With the U.S. looking at its own interest in the global supply chain and its advantage or disadvantage, industries and companies are not free to make decisions based on which country offers the best arrangement and deal for manufacturing. Notions of competitive advantage in the tech race with China are affecting the way the U.S. and European nations are acting. ...

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About 900 Arab refugees are crammed into a boat which capsizes 60 miles off the Libyan coast in April 2015, killing about 850 people. This is the worst single incident in an increasing influx of refugees from boats leaving the Libyan coast for Italy. About 171,000 refugees from North Africa made this journey in 2014, and increasing numbers are doing it in 2015 to flee the civil wars in Syria and Libya, and hardship conditions in Tunisia, Eritrea and other sub-Saharan countries.