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Besides car sales the data in December 2009-Jan 2010 for a strong recovery in 2010 is ambiguous.

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Kasman of J.P. Morgan Chase only sees a small upturn in activity, that as he sees it in a world where activity is so depressed that modest changes by business and households give a lift, with unemployment coming down to 9%. Hatzius of Goldman sees unemployment rising in an economy where capacity utilization is extremely low, with unemployment rising to 10.5% even with the best efforts of the government. Hatzius sees a painful defaltion as a serious risk and he points out that the Fed can do less about deflation than it can do about inflation. The one point that both agree on is exports have to give alift to the economy, and both welcome a depreciatipon of the dollar to lift the economy through exports. Hatzius makes the point that the lift to exports is still limited- not enough in exchage rate depreciation of the dollar to help the American economy. And Kasman actually says it now Asia's turn to do their share. We lifted them out of the slump after the 1997 Asian crisis, when their currencies depreciated and exports to the US lifted their economies....

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John Taylor on the dangers of a loose U.S. monetary policy and the effects this had in fueling a housing bubble in Spain, Ireland and other EU countries. Taylor points to the bubble ocurring in emerging market economies from low interest rates. Taylor says the ECB's interest rate moves in 2003-2005 were affected by the Fed's low interest rates. He estimates the ECB set rates about two percentage points too low leading to housing bubbles in EU countries. A similiar process is taking place today with the Fed's near zero interest rate policy. Taylor points to interest rates in a group of 18 emerging market economies- including Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Turkey, which have held interest rates on average about 5 percentage points below widely used benchmarks fueling a doubling of global commodity prices between 2009-2011. The U.S. Fed's policies make it harder for central banks in emerging market economies to take aggresssive action against bubbles developing in these countries. Taylor says his does not mean that the Fed should not pay attention to the U.S. unemployment rate and long term unemployed, but should keep in mind the negative effects of slowing demand in emerging market economies and in the EU as a result of its monetary policy of keeping rates at near zero for long periods of time. This feeds back to the U.S. economy at a critical time....

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Japan's new prime minister told the Japanese Parliament in a policy speech, that a crisis like that in Greece was possible in Japan, if trust in national bonds was lost and the policy of public spending to lift the economy was not reversed. This speech followed the resignation of Shizuka Kamei, as banking minister. Kamei was seen as an advocate of continued public spending. He cautioned that a policy of relying heavily on issuing debt could not be sustained for long. Japan has government debt of $9.7 trillion, which is close to twice its gross national product in 2009. Much of this debt is held by the public in Japan, but analysts have cautioned that with the aging population, it is possible that people who retire will need the cash from bonds, requiring the government to turn to the debt markets for financing. Among the proposals Kan suggested is raising the 5% sales tax to pay for rising social welfare costs for an aging population. Satoshi Arai, the new national strategy minister, says the government will draft a plan by June 22 to address the public debt. He said the government would not exceed $500 billion in bond issuance for fiscal year ending March 2012....

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The NYT editorial says the negative feedback loop of foreclosures begetting falling house prices, which beget more foreclosures, and further weaken banks, is well under way. One way to have broken this, was to enable good types of loan modifications, which reduce the principal for homeowners and reduce payments significantly. Sheila Bair at FDIC says 32% of prior payments is about the right amount. The bad types of loan modifications that lead to no reduction in principal, and put homeowners back in redefault because of large payments that homeowners "under water" or a lost job cannot afford, have so far been the dominant kind of loan modification. At present 14 million homeowners are "under water," in that their homes are worth less than what is owed on the mortgage. One of the crucial measures which would have enabled this, has not been pushed by the Obama administration through Congress. This was to pass an amendment that allowed bankruptcy judges to modify troubled mortgages. Banks which have taken billions of dollars in loans from the federal government were allowed to lobby aggressively to kill this amendment, and the Obama administration did little to push this amendment in Congress. 12 Senate Democrats joined 39 Senate Republicans to block a vote on the amendment. Says the NYT editorial "when the time came to stand up to the banking lobbies and cajole yes votes from reluctant senators-the White House did'nt. When the measure failed there wasn't even a statement of regret." This could turn out to be a major mistake, because as the NYT points out voluntary loan modifications have shown poor results. The administration's plan to provide incentives for loan modification is untried and tested, and may not produce significant results. With 14 million homeowners under water, and spiralling foreclosures, the situation may get out of control and seriously damage the economy. After the moratorium in home foreclosures ended there is expected to be a big surge in foreclosures, with estimates of 290,000 to 341,000 foreclosures in March, 2009. If this is allowed to continue it will undo all the good work in other areas, the stimulus spending, rebuilding the auto industry and other steps. It will also be more difficult to reverse as valuable time passes and the cost of the crisis escalates. A consensus among many experts was that stronger action in connection with the banks was required, and Martin Feldstein has warned about the danger posed by foreclosures since early 2008, see links....

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Friedman says Obama's 2012 presidential campaign lacks bold vision, a failure to articulate tangible achievements, and owes too much to campaign consultants. He describes it as being developed in test tube fashion. The failure to embrace and strongly advocate his own presidential commission's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which could be coupled with long term investment in the productive potential of the U.S. economy, shows the lack of courage to prepare a plan going forward. It is likely to cost support of independent, center and center-right voters in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

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About 680,000 homeowners applied for the Home Affordability Modification Program, or HAMP, and had their loans modified so that their mortgage payments are reduced. This is only one in four of the 2.7 millon homeowners who tried to to join the program. This according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data released by the Treasury Department. In 2009 the Obama administration launched the program to reverse the rising home foreclosures in the U.S., by reducing the monthly mortgage payments through lower interest rates and extending the term of loans. About $75 billion was estimated as the cost of the program at the time. Only $1 billion of this has been spent by the Obama administration. The program offered payments to 100 mortgage servicers as inducement to complete loan modifications. About half the applicants or 1.3 million were declared ineligible from the beginning, and the program used stricter qualification criteria than loan modification programs offered by individual banks. Applicants were rejected because the necessary paperwork was not submitted or it was lost by the mortgage company- 266,000 falling in this category. An additional 770,000 homeowners who started the program were later disqualified mostly for the paperwork and eligibility problems, with only a small number rejected for failing to make trial payments. Mortgages less than 31% of pretax income were considered affordable and considered ineligible-255,000 were in this category. Over 80% of homeowners in the southern states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee, received no loan modification....

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Romney says in the first presidential debate he will not increase taxes on the middle class: "I will not reduce taxes paid by high income Americans. And I will not, under any circumstances, raise taxes on middle-income families. I will lower taxes on middle income families." How he would do this is through limiting or eliminating deductions and loopholes among several measures, with work done on this by his advisor Martin Feldstein, Reagan's economic advisor and a professor at Harvard University- Romney's Tax Plan can raise revenue, WSJ, 8/28/2012. Where the Democrats and Republicans differ is that economic growth generated by creating incentives for business to invest and hire also plays a part in generating the additional revenues as it did under Reagan's economic plan. Behavioural factors play a large part of this as much as the incentives and other steps, to create a climate of business confidence- search in Janvoo for the Group "Reagan memo of 1980 by Shultz, Friedman," for more on this....

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Hassett and Baker suggest learning from the German experience of the last decade in reducing unemployment, including "kurzarbeit" programs, work sharing, and cooperation between industry, unions and government to reduce unemployment. France is already taking action to learn from the German experience.

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China's premier, Wen Jiabao, opened the National People's Congress, annual meeting of the Chinese parliament, by saying that China had lowered its growth rate to 7.5% from 8%. GDP growth for 2011 was 9.2%. Wen set an inflation target of 4%. The CPI index increased by 5.4% in 2011. Wen set 14% growth target for M2, China's broadest measure of money supply.

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Policymakers have alot of mistakes and errors to avoid in the years ahead, things are by no means normal. And the normal of the future after the crisis is going to be one of slow growth, large deficits and high unemployment.

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Krugman says China's inflation is raising labor costs in China, and in this way gradually reducing the undervaluation of the yuan vs the dollar. But he cautions this would take a long time, 4-5 years. The U.S. faces the costs of high unemployment close to 10% today, and this requires serious efforts now to reduce the undervaluation. It alone will not solve America's problems. It is one of a number of actions that need to be taken and not put off again.

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This Journal editorial which advises patience, comes on the day after the U.S. Senate voted 79-19 to move forward with a bill on sanctions against China for undervaluation of the yuan. The editorial says the Chinese currency has come down 30% since 2005, and inflation in China is reducing the advantage China gains by keeping its currency valuation low. Over time the editorial suggests China will see a decline in trade surpluses similiar to the experience with Japan, and emphasizes the importance of the two leading trading nations U.S. and Britain not repeating the experience of the 1930's with the Smoot-Hawley retaliatory tariffs legislation. The Journal quotes American economic historian Charles Kindleberger: "When every country turned to protect its national private interest, the world public interest went down the drain, and with it the private interests of all."