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Bruni on the view that Obama has squandered his advantages of oratorical transcendence, poetry, serious thoughtfulness, in the U.S. presidential election of 2012. He does not mention the lack of a serious plan to turn the economy around, high rate of joblessness and declining incomes that are a basic issue in the 2012 election, and how oratorical transcendence has little correlation with getting the right policies implemented. The Des Moines Register's support in 2008 put Obama on the road to the presidency in 2008 with a victory in the Iowa primary. In 2012 it gave its endorsement to Romney to give him a chance to correct the problems with the economy and to do this with a new effort to forge the bipartisan consensus missing in the Obama first term.

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Laura Meckler describes the many experiences as First Lady in Arkansas and in the White House, the many political investigations that happened, that led to the more cautious style Hillary has taken since becoming Senator from New York. This combined with her intense longing for privacy have led to the strange situation where people do not the human person that is Hillary, when they are inundated with information about the Clintons as a couple. With the 2016 campaign that human person is what is coming out as her fighting spirit kicks in, for someone who has seen all sides over a long time. 

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The new head of U.S. President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, is Princeton economics professor, Alan Krueger. Kueger is known as the academic's academic, whose office is located with other labor scholars in the Princeton library. His work has focussed on what he calls "Rockenomics" (research about which bands do well and the reasons for this), on commuting, on studies such as the one with a suggestive title, "Sorting in the Labor Market: Do Gregarious Workers Flock to Interactive Jobs?" His appointment suggests the Obama administration is looking at no new policy initiatives, focussing on an incrementalist approach in policy actions, with the hope that he can get both political parties behind smaller changes. Putting a micro-specialist in charge at a time of huge volatility in financial markets shows an administration that is likely to continue the status quo with small changes till the presidential elections in 2012- the opposite of strong action because the Obama adminstration has no idea how to turn this economy around and only hopes things will change....

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The basic problems facing American health care. Douglas Elmendorf , head of the Congressional Budget Office, says none of the bills he has seen make the fundamental changes needed in how medical care is delivered and paid for. The big issue is the unwilingness of different interests to accept serious changes. THe NYT says the long run solution to the problem of rising costs is to move away from the fee-for-service system that pays hospitals and doctors for each additional service they provide and into anew system that is organized around ways that encourage low-cost and high quality healthcare. The difficulty is that the long run may be too far, considering the seriousness of the crisis. Elmendor also suggests taxing employer provided health benefits, as this will discourage the excessive use of medical care. As the NYT says this is politically risky, even though it believes this may be a way to the new system which has to discourage the use of health care in the manner it is conducted now, with too many tests being conducted. A new system requires an enlightened approach on the part of each interest group in the face of a crisis, and the failure to do that may only end up retaining some of the worst aspects of the old system just mentioned that drive up costs and make universal health care unaffordable....

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Doctors face a 21% cut in the amount of Medicare payments for treating seniors having Medicare, though this cut will be delayed till 2011 under legislation in Congress. This issue goes back to 1997, when a budget law set spending targets, and stated that if they were exceeded formulas to reduce doctors payments would go into effect. The formulas seriously cut into doctor payments by Medicare in 2002, so the formula was put off. The result of this is that the cuts based on the formula now amount to 21%. The cuts are not expected to go through, but at the same time Congress has an headache on its hands with the growing deficit. In the Senate there is opposition to a $120 billion bill to extend long term unemployment benefits which lapsed in June 2010, for tax breaks, and other expenses. Senators want to pare down the bill's price tag, as $80 billon of this is unfunded and will be added to the budget deficit. For a primary care doctor in Washington state, Medicare pays about $95 compared to private insurers payment of $129, and a plan for state workers that pays $140....

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Hubbard, Blinder, Romer and other economists are at a loss to explain the high rate of unemploymment and the lack of a recovery in jobs. Differences on how to address the problem from tax breaks to small business (Hubbard) to New Deal type employment for the jobless (Blinder).

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This WSJ editorial points out a big concern in the third quarter 2012 economic growth figures- the figure showing non-housing related investment contracting by 1.3%. It says the U.S. borrowed $5 trillion and all it got in return was 1.7% economic growth- 1.7% being the growth in U.S. GDP for the first 9 months of 2012. It also points out that the growth came from consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's money printing. The consumer spending would be hard pressed to continue if incomes remain stagnant without the capital investment and hiring from the private sector. Government spending accounts for 0.7% of the GDP growth, and estimates for private sector growth in output is about 1.3%.

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The problems facing U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner, as a government shutdown occurs in October 2013. Republicans and Demorats fail to agree on raising the debt ceiling and financing of the government. Boehner faces a movement in the Republican party led by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas for defunding the Obamacare law.

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The moderate positions of both parties in political life in Australia and New Zealand compared to the U.S.

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A poll by Reuters and the University of Michigan in mid 2012 shows U.S. voters by a large margin of about 10% feel they are worse off in 2012 than they were in 2008. The situation in working class towns such as Allentown, Pennsylvania, is likely to be critical for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election of 2012.

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The U.S. House of Representatives votes 285-144 to suspend the debt ceiling till Feb. 7, 2014. The deal forged in the Senate by Democrat Reid and Republican McConnell passed in th Senate by 81-18. The U.S. stock markets closed with the DJIA at 15374, up 1.6% compared to Sept 30 when the government shutdown began. The Republicans opposing the passage outnumbered those supporting it 144 to 87 in the House of Representatives. Because this was a repeat of similiar failure to reach agreement and last minute deals in 2012 and 2011 the equity markets appear to have taken the conflict between the two parties in stride.

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Hillary Clinton has received $21.4 million from Wall Street donors for her 2016 campaign fund, compared to $75,000 for rival Bernie Sanders, according to this report in the Washington Post. This was raised in questions by Anderson Cooper of CNN at a town hall in Derry, New Hampshire on Feb. 3, 2016.

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James Pressley, in this review of Joseph Stiglitz's new book- "Freefall: America, Free Markets and the Sinking of the World Economy," says Stiglitz's advice should be taken into account by the new administration. Stiglitz, says, the Obama administration has so far offered no alternative vision of capitalism and is only "mudddling through." It is simply following the course the Bush administration had taken. And has retained as key economic advisors, Geithner, Ben Bernanke and Summers, all from previous administration's economic teams, thus largely removing the possibillity of serious change. And by doing so, says Stiglitz, the Obama administration has "squandered the opportunity," to fix things that needed to be fixed in the economy. Stiglitz, says Pressley, urges Americans to think what kind of America they want to see, what kind of society they want to make, and then what kind of economy will get them there. Stiglitz wants to see banks back to where they they only make loans, and act as an efficient payments system, and not engaged in risk taking. At a meeting of the American Economic Association, Stiglitz, presented a paper that suggested that between globalization for integrating world financial markets and keeping them separate, the latter is the better course. Financial markets he believes, need circuit breakers to not bring down the whole system....

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This report in the Washington Post says Hillary Clinton accepted $675,000 in speaking fees from Goldman Sachs. After this was raised in a question by Anderson Cooper of CNN, at a CNN Town Hall in Derrry, New Hampshire, on Feb. 3, 2016, Hillary Clinton has postponed 2 speaking events, one at an affiliate of Bain Capital and one organized by the chief legal officer of BlackRock asset management firm. Anderson Cooper's question to Hillary was whether she had made " bad error in judgement" by accepting that amount for 3 speeches. Her answers "that's what they offered," and "they're not giving me very much money now," were not seen positively in the media. Federal Election Commission reports cited by the Washington Post show that donors from hedge fnds, banks, insurance companies, financial services firms gave $21.4 million for Clinton's 2016 campaign, out of a total of $157.8 million. Including allied superPACS the Clinton 2016 campaign received $44.1 million from financial industry donors compared to $39.7 million received by Bill Clinton, according to this WP report. Compared to Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders has raised about $75,000 of the $75 million he raised for the 2016 campaign from the financial industry, says WP....

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There are some major problems in the American jobs market which suggest a long drawn out effort to reduce the high unemployment rate. One is the divergence between the vacancies that are developing and the rate at which firms are filling these vacancies. With vacancies remaining, unfilled and firms remaining cautious about the economic outlook and leery of hiring, the increase in economic output or GDP growth of 3% expected on the optimistic side in 2011 is not translating into lower unemployment. Structural problems are causing a great deal of difficulty in reducing the jobless rate. The recession hit manufacturing and construction very hard. And those who worked in these industries are not those with the skills and training to take up jobs in health care and education or other similiar fields- here skill mismatches are the problem. Geographic factors and the property prices drop are creating additional barriers. About 25% of mortgage borrowers owe more than their property is worth, and their are fewer buyers in regions with depressed job prospects like Michigan. There is a large increase in long term unemployment- over 27 weeks. Those out of work for more than 6 months see their skiils, job connections and confidence erode. A Brookings Institution paper estimates that this rise in long term unemployment by itself can cause labor market recovery to take twice as long as after the 1982 recession under Reagan, when unemployment reached a high of 10.8% and took 2 years to get back to 7.5%. Add to this the fact that a lot of jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009, with a six percentage increase in unemployment in a short period unmatched by anything since the Great Depression, with long term unemployed reaching 6.5 millon or nearly half of the total. And the 3% growth rate estimated by the government is anything but certain. It is questioned by the IMF as a stretch. This does not take into account the problems in the banking sector, as home equity loans gone bad show up on their balance sheets in latter part of 2010. According to a CreditSights report (see the US economy in 2010 in Group search for more information on this) with estimated losses of $33 billion. A struggling banking sector and tighter credit will add a structural dimension from the banking sector to the wobbly hiring. The "muddle through" approach to banking problems of the Obama administration in tackling bank's bad debt will continue to pose risks....

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The political deadlock between U.S. Congress and the President and its impact on efforts to reduce the unemployment rate. The failure of the Obama administration and Congress to tackle the jobs issue, leaving too much of the burden of action on the Federal Reserve.

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Brooks describes the U.S. presidential campaigns of Republican Romney and Democrat Obama as very consequential but incredibly dull, an effort to get uninformed voters with a barrage of negative advertising. There is very little enthusiasm for either candidate in their parties and the only feeling motivating each party is that the other candidate and his policies would be a disaster. There is hardly any effort at intellectual innovation, bringing new ideas or thoughtful debate into the election campaign. With four months left before the presidential elections the situation appears likely to drag on in this way right into the final days, with each side running a well oiled media campaign around themes that cast the other side in a negative light.

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This is an indepth article on Donald Trump's financial holdings, looking at the debt that Trump has built up in his real estate dealings, by Susanne Craig of the NYT. To get a detailed look of this the NYT inquiry into the holdings engaged RedVision Systems, a national property information firm to search publicly available data. Much of Trump's business is shrouded in mystery. But it is well known that Trump has used debt to build his business in a way that is not considered good practice in business, having led to three bankruptcies. Trump says he "is the king of debt." And "he loves debt." The recovery of real estate values during a rescue effort for the country's financial system also helped Trump tackle debt in a way that was not available to other entrepreneurs who suffered from the oil price collapse- one of them McClendon also used debt aggressively and his business collapsed leading to suicidal car crash. You can love excessive debt only if the government supports you with some sort of financial guarnatee misplaced, or you are lucky to get away with it- just ask McClendon. The irony is that the rescue of the financial system led to the low interest rates that hurt savings of the middle and working class, and the lack of help to Main Street in the home foreclosure crisis also hurt the same people disproportionately. The Obama administration policies in this regard rescued the very same business interests such as the New York real commercial estate symbolized by Trump, that are now appealing to those hurt as president Obama worked to let the financial system recover. The intention was never to support excessively overleveraged banks or overleveraged real estate built on debt, but in reality this is what happened. A nation cannot run its financial affairs in this manner of overleveraging to extract high profits that an investment bank such as Lehman or Goldman Sachs does, or a real estate company such as Trump's does- if regulators let them do this. Normally after the financial crisis of such dimensions that it shook the world economy in 2008-2009 leading to fears of a collapse as happened in the 1930's, the same faces would not still be there. But this is a strange period or a transition period where things are being sorted out, and the same faces Blankfein at Goldman Sachs and Trump in New York commercial real estate are with us.  And though the bashing of Goldman Sachs connection to Clinton is evident in the campaigns of Trump and Sanders, the bashing of Trump real estate and finance companies with its overleveraging and bankruptcies is evident in the campaign of Clinton against one posing as a representative of the working class. John Paulson who benefitted by shorting mortgage securities that caused the financial crisis of 2008 is on Trump's top economic advisory team, including the hedge funds and financial interests on Wall Street that Trump is saying support Clinton. No one, not the NYT or WSJ, can answer this, its just the paradox of today's situation. Hillary Clinton can say she has learned her lesson, with her Methodist upbringing and her own supporters such as Robert Reich and others, and break with the past especially as it in no way contributes to her success as president, not one bit. In fact rebuilding the middle class and infrastructure require entirely different connections and views on life, a different imagination.  Trump has billions of dollars and a real estate business that is so complex that even the NYT and property information firms can only say that in the end it is shrouded in mystery. Companies owned by Trump says the NYT from this inquiry have debt of $650 million. Other Trump business activities through 3 passive partnerships owe an additional $2 billion. It is a lot easier for Hillary Clinton to put the speech fees behind her as they have little to do with what she is as a Methodist and a proponent of improving women's lives, than it is for Donald Trump- for whom his business is everything that he is including his art of the deal- to reject who he is. ...

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The Journal says Santorum needs to fit his economic point about helping manufacturing into a broader economic policy, and broaden his support base beyond the social conservative base. It says about Romney that he needs to find an authentic message that appeals to conservatives beyond catchphrases about repealing Obamacare. The problem it says is both candidates do not appeal to the whole Republican party. One candidate Romney lacks the fervor and firm convictions and the other Santorum has fervor and firm convictions about social issues, but can't do the same for economic issues and the other concerns of Republican voters.

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Krugman talks about the misunderstandings and the whole lot of misinformation that comes from advertising and political commentary. With one man telling a Congressman at a town hall meeting: "keep your government hands off my Medicare." In apolitically charged atmosphere this makes rational decisions in acalm thoughful environment difficult or impossible- when the influence of lobbying by the health care industry and the influence of interests on behalf of patients and other interests have already created a difficult situation.

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The House Energy and Commerce Committee passes ahealthcare plan with 31 to 28 vote. The Senate version takes adifferent approach. The Senate version has moved away from the employer requirements in the House bills. The Senate committee is moving towards aproposal to require employers to contribute if their workers are getting government assisted insurance coverage. It has also moved away from the surtax on the wealthy in the House bills which is expected to raise $500 billion. Instead the Senate version proposes an excise tax on insurers for health plans that offer generous benefits. Under the current bill being considered in the Senate such a insurance policy tax could raise $180 billion. The Senate Finance Committee is also different in that instead of the public insurance option it offers nonprofit health insurance cooperatives as an alternative. There is agreement between the two parties on anumber of things so the debate will center on the public insurance option, surtax on the wealthy to pay for the plan, and the requirement for an employer mandated coverage for all employees....