LyrArc Article Gist
Years of failure of politicians in Congress in Brazil, and poor decisions in running the government by the Worker's Party by overspending leaving little money for services, sanitation, health and other priorities, leads to Brazil turning to a former army officer in the 2018 elections. Corruption charges with collusion of politicians and the state owned oil company on contracts known as the Car Wash scandal further damaged the reputation of politicians in the Worker's Party. Jair Bolsonaro was elected to Brazil's Congress in 1990 after a short period in the military at a time when democratic institutions were being restored in Brazil following decades of military dictatorship. By 2014 after two terms in office the Worker's Party led by a former automobile plant worker Da Silva had lost popular support with overspending, failure to upgrade public services and neglect of basic infrastructure such as sanitation, leading to widespread protests. In the 2014 congressional elections Bolsonaro won by nearly 500,000 votes, leading to his bid to run for president from a small party which had the support of Brazil's military. The military played a role in supporting the Getulio Vargas administration from 1930-1945, which pushed industrialization in Brazil and set minimum wage, workers rights. Democracy was restored by 1945 after Brazil sided with the U.S. in the war. In 1964 the administration of Joao Goulart was overthrown in a military coup after popular discontent and protests. Democracy was restored in 1985 with centrist parties playing apart till the election of the Worker's Party under Ignacio Lula in 2008. Six years into his administration by 2014 issues of overspending and poor management of public services led to loss of popular support for the Workers Party as the public looked for alternatives to combat crime, improve public services and address problems of lack of spending on sanitation, public services, health care. The collapse of the commodities pricing boom led to higher unemployment and a shrinking economy leading to unrest and public protests.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Theresa May becomes the only candidate for leadership of the Conservative Party after Ms Leadsom withdraws from the race. No leadership vote will no take place with Conservative Party members and no early general election is planned. May is expected to become prime minister of Britain by July 12, replacing David Cameron. Her theme is for "one Britain" and to do away with the rising inequality and gap between London and the rest of the country, which was part of the anxiety of voters who voted 52% for Brexit on issues of immigration burden on social and health services, national sovereignty, and a sense of ordinary people being neglected by elites in both parties. May will invoke Article 50 to leave the European Union and begin a 2 year period of negotiations only after she has developed a clear negotiating strategy. Kenneth Clarke, a Conservative Party cabinet minister called May a "bloody difficult woman," but this did not affect May, who said Mr Juncker of the EU was the one who would find this out in negotiations.  What is significant for Britain is May's moderate position coupled with a clear goal for removing some of the causes of the inequity in British society, which is needed for Britain to remain united. She called on companies like Amazon, Google and others to pay their fair share of taxes, and made clear her intent to strengthen the mechanisms for controlling executive pay. Also part of this strategy will be a more effective immigration control policy, which she did not implement vigorously as Home Secretary in the Cameron government, partly because of constraints set by EU membership. May made clear her agenda going forward by saying: "There is a growing divide between a more prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation. And there is a gaping chasm between wealthy London and the rest of the country."  Changes May is supporting are to make executive pay rules to become binding not just advisory, and for employees and consumers to gain seats on company boards.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Tom Hanks and Robin Wright in the movie "Here" a technical experiment in deaging and new kind of cinematography different from the past. Robin Wright's vision of growing up as adults in the 1960's, the period John F. Kennedy was campaigning in 1956 and in 1960 in Wisconsin, with radio the main medium and life moving slowly. There is this image from a writer in Wisconsin about that time when John Kennedy turned up at a supermarket in suburbs of Wisconsin to talk to customers for his Wisconsin campaign, and with Robert Kennedy also in the store, Mrs Kennedy takes a microphone and talks to customers at the store about JFK's campaign.  A new spirit of social change was being felt in the air when Kennedy represented this not just for America but for the Free World across Asia, Latin America, and Africa. It is this optimism that America felt and reaches out for again. It is also a period of optimism in the US and the Free World, a spirit John Kennedy really captured. The FDR-Truman period laid behind the chapter of excesses of capitalism and Roosevelt's response, Truman set the Free World's response to the Soviets, Eisenhower period completed the Interstate Highway System but was stagnant in other respects. It is this Wisconsin campaign that put Kennedy on the map for the Democratic nomination in 1960 with a new feeling in the air about what America could really aspire to and aspire for. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Showing how much the Social Democratic party in Germany needed to show progress on key issues Martin Schulz of the SPD was ordered by the party to bring up contentious issues in negotiations relating to social cohesion. One was the two tier system in healthcare where some are able to pay for more privileges in the nation's health care system with private insurance and others are in the public health system. The other issue is the ability under current German law for companies to issue 2 year temporary contracts. The SPD party did badly in the last elections because working class voters do not see it fighting hard enough for worker rights and ensuring an equitable system.On the health issue a commission will look into how the system can equalize medical fees between people privately and publicly insured. On the employment issue companies can only terminate without cause in 1.5 years instead of the 2 years. Small compromises, yet in long negotiations with a 24 hour session for a breakthrough and everyone exhausted, the snail's progress over 13 days and one night worked to set up a new coalition after all. Still one hurdle remains- getting the SPD membership to vote yes even though its youth wing is opposed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This NYT story describes the origin of the Panama Papers with an anonymous email sent to Bastian Obermayer of the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung- "Interested in data?" Obermayer, who had done previous investigations into money laundering and tax evasion, replied "Very interested." When the 5 member team of the Suddeutsche Zeitung could not cope with the torrent of data coming in, the International Commission of Investigative Journalism organized an effort that brought in about 400 journalists from 100 news companies in 80 countries to tackle the trove of data. This process went on for one year till the data was released in April 2016. In the first 2 months when Obermayer worked with a colleague, the two exchanged emails in the middle of the night at late hours, saying it was taking all their time.

LyrArc Article Gist
This story in the WP on the anonymous source of the Panama Papers and his initial contacts with Bastian Obermayer of the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung, complements a story in the NYT about the source.

LyrArc Article Gist
Reviews of "End of Wall Street" by Roger Lowenstein and the "Big Short" by Michael Lewis show not only how the traders like Michael Burry and Steve Eisman built up credit default swap positions and bet that the housing market with subprime lending would collapse. The Big Short says Gross is a portrait of misfits, which is how the traders are shown in their personal lives. For Eisman a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and the Harvard Law School, his own wife is quoted as saying, that even on Wall Street he was seen as "rude, obnoxious and aggressive." About lives of the men of finance, Lowenstein describes one incident in which Vikram Pandit is spotted at lunch in "Le Bernardin," a top rated restaurant in New York. Pandit sees nothing by the glass and orders a $350 bottle so he could savor a glass of wine worth drinking. All this for doing what Loyd Blankfein described as "doing God's work."

LyrArc Article Gist
How shares of British and American banks are being hit hard in the stock market. Barclays went down by 24 % in 1 month. And rumors are rife about huge losses at many banks, for Barclays the rumor is that it has losses of $10 billion that will be announced as writedowns.

LyrArc Article Gist
That the ending of the Jobs Banks is being discussed in December 2008, at the point of a potential GM bankruptcy, shows how little and late the UAW has been in coming to terms with the realities of todays marketplace and today's manufacturing, and the need for compettive cost structures.

LyrArc Article Gist
Eyal Press brings ups the issues of moral injury when physicians work under a system of corporate takeover of medicine. She cites  the situation of Emergency Room's at hospitals where the service is outsourced to private groups working only with profits in mind. Sociologist Paul Starr in his book  The Social Transformation of American Medicine said that about 50 years ago this was not the prevailing practice in America, when physicians earned the public's trust by being "above the market and pure commercialism." The trend now is to form unions such as the one at Stanford University for medical professionals, as this provides a balance when dealing with corporate interests. A 30 year old resident at Stanford is cited, who says the prestige of the profession of medicine does not any more prevent the degradation that is being experienced by workers in other sectors of todays economy. With its excesses in one direction away from the values of the past. Physicians he sees as moving to the category  of "laborers," like other workers in such an economy, that is far removed from what existed in America 50 years ago. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Hernando De Soto, a prominent economist, heads the Institute for Liberty and Democracy. He has an intimate knowledge of the workings of the Egyptian economy, and describes the socio-economic marginalization of large parts of Egyptian society as Economic Apartheid. Simply put Egypt has fallen behind the times, way behind the economic progress in large developing countries.The Institute was hired by the Egyptian government in 1997, with the financial support of the US Agency for International Development, to look into what reforms were needed. It presented its 1000 page report in 2004- after years of work involving 120 Egyptian and Peruvian technicians, participation of 300 local leaders and interviews with thousands of ordinary people- to the Egyptian cabinet. The then Finance Minister Hassanein supported it and the cabinet approved it. What followed was a cabinet shakeup, and blocking of any reforms by hidden interests wanting to protect the status quo. De Soto's objective was to find out how many people were marginalized in Egypt, and how much of the economy operated outside the legal system- small business that did not have the protection of property rights or access to normal business tools and credit, that makes businesses grow. He found that 9.6 million people were employed in this sector operating "extralegally" with no protections. This being the largest sector of employment in Egypt. His action plan was intended to remove the legal impediments to these people and businesses urban and rural, so that they could grow. He says the value of these businesses outside legal protections is $248 billion or 30 times larger than the total value on the Cairo stock exchange, and 55 times greater than all the foreign direct investment in Egypt since 1800 including Suez Canal and Aswan Dam. De Soto says that because of burdensome, discriminatory and bad laws it takes 500 days to open a small bakery, getting a legal title on a vacant piece of land would take 10 years of red tape. This barrier of bad laws, poorly trained bureaucrats, inertia of the status quo, prevents people from legalizing their property and business. As a result whereas one of these types of small businesses is now India's largest company called Reliance Industries, and another Infosys is the second largest software company, most Egyptian enterprises are stuck being small and relatively poor, and do not generate jobs for the demographic surge of young people. De Soto's point is that Egypt will need good leadership to pull off this task of legal reform, and democracy alone will not be enough. Empowering the large majority of the Egyptian people operating outside the legal protections will mean giving property rights for $400 billion of assets, De Soto says. And this would unlock an amount of capital hundreds of times larger than what foreign direct investment and aid has brought to the country....

LyrArc Article Gist
Alan Mulally focussed attention on Ford brands such as the Taurus, and the Fusion, to improve quality and fuel efficiency. To do this he sold brands acquired earlier- Land Rover to Tata Motors and Volvo to Geely. Under his management Ford pushed ahead with globalized product development and building a presence in the small car market. Ford still has weakness in the European and Asian markets. In Europe a large number of manufacturers are competing for a slow growing market and price competition has cut into profits. In Asia, Ford was slow to enter the Chinese market. As a result its sales in China lag far behind VW and GM, with only 2.7% market share. Mullaly is investing $1.5 billion on new factories in China, including two assembly plants and an engine plant. One of the plants in the southern city of Chongquing will produce an SUV and a luxury car. Mulally wants to see 70% of Ford's growth in this decade from Asia. The other problem facing Mulally is reviving the Lincoln brand which has seen a sales decline of 63% since 1990. Ford has hired a designer who worked on the Cadillac to redo the Lincoln's design. Mulally plans to cut the 900 Lincoln dealers to 600, to reduce the price competition for smaller sales volume. He is asking the remaining dealers to invest $2 million for new showrooms that will compete with Lexus in their look and feel. Asessing what has been achieved at Ford so far one sees the progress in pushing up quality. Ford now ranks above Toyota in J.D. Power quality surveys with its cars getting higher resale prices than some Toyota models. Ford cars are also being well received by new car buyers with market share up for the second consecutive year. This would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. Also significant is how Ford under Mulally's direction managed to make good use of the $23 billion loan secured in 2006, avoiding bankruptcy and turning the corner to profitable operations. Ford earned $6.6 billion in 2010, after losing $30 billion from 2006 to 2008. Ford's challenges going forward are how to sustain profitable growth, manage $19.1 billion in debt and a junk-bond credit rating, and maintain the momentum without reverting to a dependence solely on SUV's and larger vehicles for profits. Chairman Bill Ford is forthright about Ford's history of wasting opportunities during the good times- of "losing the plot in the good times." Mulally makes the same assessment at a November town hall meeting of 200 employees - Ford is good at crisis managment he says but then "forgets why we're here." For Mulally a bit of inspiration from Heny Ford himself counts, this being a poster from 1925 that hangs on the office walls, a Saturday Evening Post cover with the slogan: "Opening the highways to all mankind." Mullaly says looking at this makes him cry....

LyrArc Article Gist
Bayer CEO, Marijn Dekkers, plans to divest its plastics business, called Material Science. The plastics division requires large investments with lower returns than can be made in health care or the agricultural crop science business. Crop Science generated earnings before interest and taxes of 1.81 billion euros in 2014, and Health Care helped by 5 new prescription drugs reported EBIT of 3.58 billion euros, compared to poor returns of 555 million euros on the polyurethane and polymers used for laptops to soccer balls in the Materials Science division. CEO Dekkers is a Dutch born executive who worked for 25 years in the U.S. Since taking over in 2010 he has brought a significant culture change to Bayer, by insisting on speed and agility from executives. Division heads with marketing backgrounds are preferred to science degrees, and the planning orientation of the company is being changed to one where the company executives are not afraid to take risks based on incomplete information. Dekkers prefers an IPO for the $10 billion plastics business to generate more cash and reduce the debt of 20 billion euros. He acquired the over the counter drug business of Merck for $14.2 billion, and has boosted drug sales with the introduction of Xarelto in partnership with J&J, eye treatment Eylea, cancer drugs Stivarga and Xofigo, pulmonary hypertension drug Adempas. Sales of these 5 drugs are expected to go up from 2.9 billion euros in 2014 to 4 billion euros in 2015, contributing significantly to Bayer's profits. Dekker's venture capitalist type focus on profit margins is showing results in share price performance- Bayer's share price has advanced 60% in 2015 mid-March price of 145.85 euros compared to the prior year month. In the small town of Leverkusen, Germany, where Bayer is located, there were initially fears that Dekkers was "too American" and too focussed on shareholder value to understand the need to respect tradition. Since then Germans have realized that Dekkers understands tradition and is only bringing necessary change- the transition to being a life sciences company makes sense to shareholders in Germany, for employee representatives on the supervisory board the guarantee of current level of 17,000 jobs in the plastics division for a few years shows his concern for job protection during the transition period. For Dekkers who left Holland in 1985, and has a U.S. passport with an American wife and kids who speak no Dutch or German, the important thing is to get the right balance- he says the system of 99-1 where 99% of the information had to be in before a decision could be made is making the change to 90-10 where only 90% of the information is now necessary to go ahead, even if he would like to see it at 80-20. Bayer still sponsors the local soccer team known as Bayer Leverkausen, and 26 other clubs. Dekkers steps down at the end of 2016....

LyrArc Article Gist
Dennis Berman takes a very instructive and reflective look at what happened in history, the thirties when something like what we are seeing now happened, a huge global downturn. One thing that is being repeated is the tendency to think that things will recover maybe in 2009 or 2010. But oftentimes this is not the way it turns out. President Hoover said to the American people in May 1930, " I am convinced that we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover." Hoover is now seen negatively but a visit to the museum section of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University shows that he was a geological engineer, well travelled to other countries, was President of Stanford when it was a small school, and was active in relief efforts for Russia in the years of civil war after the first world war. Was he less compassionate than FDR, was he less educated, and less aware of conditions in other countries than FDR, and less determined than FDR? Could it be that he did not realize the depth of the downturn that lay ahead and for this reason failed to take more aggressive action? WIth FDR, less well known as Berman points out, is the period of 1936 and 1937 covered in the book "The Forgotten Man", a popular history of the Depression by Amity Shlaes. The Federal Reserve used New Deal laws to tighten reserve requirements on the nation's banks. The goal was to make the banks stronger, but the unanticipated result was that the banks tightened still further. This aggravated things in the economy when it was still stuck in difficulties. The Dow Jones Average fell by more than a third between August 1937 and January 1938. Unemployment jumped. Historians call it the 'depression within the Depression. Just a year before this period, FDR predicted in 1935, "Never since my inauguration in March 1933, have I felt so unmistakably the atmosphere of recovery." Berman reminds us that the main force in the economy at this time however well intentioned is the government. And the government is at the whims of politicians, and the error proneness of human beings in positions of responsibility, with so many decisions taken on an ad hoc basis, responding to emergencies and dire situations as they arise, with not enough time for careful thought, and often with little sleep. The AIG intervention has already taken $177 billion in government money in a few months, and everything is being done on a crash basis with little preparation mostly in response to surprises popping up in financial markets. As Frank Rich points out the danger to the President's plans and vision is not from the work outlined for education, energy, health care, or Republicans, as much as it is from this uncertain element about available capital to make the wheels of the economy move again to sustain employment and incomes....

LyrArc Article Gist
Quentin Hardy of the NYT provides this exceptional account of life in the Mid-Market area of San Francisco, close to the Financial District and a few blocks from the offices of Twitter, and of Spotify, Zendesk and other startup companies. Moving just a few blocks from the tech startups offices can take you into a different world with dilapidated housing, drug dealers, and housing for homeless people. Expensive resaurants and markets rub shoulders with poorer shops.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee voted 7 to 3 to continue a policy of keeping the federal funds rate at exceptionally low levels "at least through mid-2013." Presidents of the Federal Reserve regional banks- Fisher of Dallas, Kocherlakota of Minneapolis, and Plosser of Philadelphia preferred different language that would only say exceptionally low rates for "for an extended period."

LyrArc Article Gist
Trump says he supports the House Republican tax plan for three brackets 12%, 25% and 33%. In his earlier proposal Trump has supported a top rate of 25%. He made these comments, including support for deducting childcare costs, in a speech at the Economic Club of Detroit. Trump did not repeat a call for repealing Dodd-Frank bank supervision legislation. Clinton was critical of Trump's economic team of business people from hedge funds and the real estate industry, saying this was another example of "trickle down economics,"  for giving  "super big tax breaks to large corporations." Michigan has not voted Republican since 1988, and the auto industry rescue was organized by president Obama, a point heavily advertised in the 2012 presidential campaign. Romney had opposed the rescue effort, and during the 2012 campaign the WSJ reports say  Trump called the bailout of automakers a mistake because of expansion overseas.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ezra Klein of the NYT looks at proposed US, EU and Chinese regulatory framework for AI. He points out the problems with the EU- too specific, US- too broad, and China's - state oriented. Klein gives specific points that need to be considered carefully including setting up the regulatory agency like the FDA to strictly regulate AI systems and companies.

LyrArc Article Gist
A sad picture of how GM, Chrysler, and Ford came up with the Jobs Bank in 1984, which has turned into a corrosive influence since then. How the UAW overreached thinking this increased job security. Only to end up being an object of national ridicule and a handicap for the car companies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Laffer says there is a big gap between the cost of health care and what people actually pay, which keeps cost escalating as there are no pressures from users of services to economize or bring reductions in the prices. But Laffer offers no effective solutions either his patient centred approach to health care reform does not address the problem that employers are paying for health care for the large part and these are not taxed as benefits leaving the employee free to load up on services and ignore the cost, which works just fine for the health care providers who increase revenues and profits- also called cost escalation upto the point now reached where the nation can no longer afford it.

LyrArc Article Gist
How an outside director is heard at meetings of China Netcom Group (Hong Kong), in this case former Goldman banker Thornton. This is rare in Chinese board meetings. There is a story behind this and Jason Dean tells us what happened to bring Thornton, Roderic Hills a former SEC chairman, McKinsey, Qian, a governance expert at UC Berkeley, Tian, a US trained founder of Netcom, and Mr Zhang together to shape Netcom's corporate governance, as a model for the other state controlled Chinese companies. Especially useful is the insight from Zhang about the role of the Communist party committee in Netcom, of which he is party secretary, and its counterparts which really run state controlled Chinese companies. The communist party committee is responsible for six functions, not spelled out here, but probably refers to the social goals as perceived by the communist party. One of the goals is modernization- bringing Chinese company management to best practice standards in Europe and the US. Netcom's incentive is that it needs to stand out against its better positioned competitors China Telecom and China Mobile, which have a big share of the market. Zhang gives the impression of being a thinking type willing to try out new ideas to help achieve the goal of "catching up" to best practice governance....