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The International Monetary Fund estimates global growth in 2021 at 5.5%. It also says that government support to support the economic recovery is essential calling for the strong stimulus being done in the U.S., Europe, Japan, India and other countries.

The IMF also cautions that everything depends on controlling the pandemic. There is special concern for countries in Africa and Latin America where vaccine supplies are needed.

The chief economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinathan, says India will see growth of 11.5% in 2021. The head of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva, says India has acted quickly to control the pandemic, considering the size of the population and its density.  The vaccination drive with 2.3 million healthcare workers vaccinated and 300 million to be vaccinated in the first part of the campaign, Georgieva says shows that steps are being taken for a strong recovery in 2021.

 

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Mr. Trump has a firm resolve not to get the U.S. involved in wars in distant places so that he can focus on important economic and other issues including the current confrontation with China on trade. He has relied on advice from General Keane as he forged American policy on Iran and other foreign policy issues. Mr. Bolton the National Security Adviser holds strong opinions on Iran and this is seen as a problem that could accidentally create more tensions or war with Iran. He was passed over with the job going to General McMaster in the earlier part of the Trump administration.The use of an aircraft carrier moving to the Persian Gulf region was merely a precautionary measure says the Trump administration, and the U.S. continues to look for ways to work out its differences with Iran even as it imposed sanctions on Iran. This brings the U.S. closer to its allies in Europe.

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After being ranked 131st before the Eurocup soccer champioships in 2016 Ireland made it to the championships, beat the Netherlands, Austria and Britain, drawing with Portugal and Hungary. How did they do it? 

Analysis of performance shows some key insights on team building. One is that too much talent can be overproductive. At work it often leads to stalling, or everyone reinforcing the others biases. Its bad if one or two persons become dominant instead of allowing all to participate. If there is not enough listening and social sensitivity, enough humility, teams can deteriorate. Too many talented individuals does not lead to that much improvement if clear thinking does not prevail.

There was humility in the Iceland team and the coach was a part time coach who worked as a dentist. All the Iceland players worked together better than the stars on the English team.

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This editorial in the WSJ in June 2016 points out the dangers in the U.S. president Obama not facing up to the threat in the Middle East since 2013 leading to the fall of Mosul,  and in not clearly focussing on the threat since then. This has created divisions inside Europe and the U.S. in internal politics, and is being exacerbated with the rise of far right groups in Europe and by Trump in the U.S. It points out that by not clearly identifying the threat president Obama has given "illiberal" policy a boost. It says Hillary Clinton should be careful to formulate her own position in line with policy that has been pursued since FDR.

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Unilever is facing higher prices for the vegetable oil, such as palm oil it uses for making soap and margarine. It is passing on the costs to consumers. Nestle and Danone SA are passing on the higher prices to consumers. Nestle increased the average wholesale price for all its products by 5.3%. Higher feed costs make it more expensive for Danone to keep cows, raising milk prices and with it prices of yogurt, cheese and other milk products. As a result food inflation is running at 5% in the USA and prices are higher in Europe and in other parts of the world. Because of the increasing demand for better nutrition levels and better food in diets in China and India and other parts of the world, and low grain production levels, and the increasing amount of land diverted to other uses, including ethanol production in the USA, there are food shortages and higher prices for corn and other grains.

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Yvette Cooper, UK Home Secretary, continues to pursue a policy of keeping open asylum hotels even as the UK public opinion on asylum seekers shifts, with large parts of the population not supporting it. Immigration is the top issue in Britain and keeping asylum seekers in hotels at government expense is highly unpopular. Giving Reform UK support that it did not have in 2024. A WSJ report shows the problems UK immigration policy is running into in 2025 under Labour.  Editorial opinion in The Times of London says Farage's ideas on stopping migrants should be heard, as both Conservatives and Labour have not got it right, with surging numbers of migrants as long as policies on benefits favor migrant flow. It is plain common sense. The irony is that for most of the British Empire since 1600 during colonization there were no such policies favoring immigrants much less illegal migrants, colonial peoples had no such rights in British colonies in China or India much less in Britain that are now being offered to migrants coming illegally under the European Convention of Human Rights. Asian people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps- Japan, Taiwan, China, and India, and never depended on such Conventions. Some ideas in The Times of London say the UK military should be given the task of protecting the waters around Britain and some troops stationed in France to prevent illegal boat crossings where they start, considering that such action was taken during the recent Olympics in France. ...

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ElBaradei's father was a president of the Egyptian Bar Association. ElBaradei studied for his law degree and doctorate at New York University and was an adjunct professor of law at NYU. He joined the UN and wasn not the choice of the Egyptian government for the position of head of the UN Atomic Energy Agency. He was a compromise candidate supported by the US. As a young diplomat in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry he was part of the team that negotiated the Camp David Peace Accords with Israel. Because of his background, a nuanced understanding of ElBaradei is necessary to understand his criticism of the Obama administration's hesitant support of the protests, and his statements saying Egypt's foreign policy was a failure. For his role in the future ElBaradei says, all I want to do is share and deliver this country to catch up with the rest of the world." To understand what this means for a backward country like Egypt with a growing population of 80 million of mostly young people, which has failed to keep pace with economic progress in other parts of the world, see the article by Henando de Soto. Soto describes his effort working on a project for reforms in Egypt from 1997-2004 with the support of members of the Egyptian cabinet and the US Agency of Intenational Development, which were blocked in a cabinet shakeup by interests wanting to preserve the status quo. Failure to grasp this central fact that alone among large developing countries Egypt has failed to deliver on the rising expectations in the developing world, makes it impossible to understand Egypt. This is why De Soto describes the situation in Egypt as Egypt's Econmic Apartheid. In New York City enjoyed his time in Greenwich village, going to the opera and Knicks basketball games....

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More than a retreat it gives the US, EU, India, China and the nations in Asia and Africa, Latin America most affected by higher oil prices and lower economic growth a time to pause and rethink dependence on the Gulf region for oil supplies. It is not mentioned in the media yet there has to be a link between the US president's visit to Beijing and Beijing's support for a normalized US China relationship, and offering its support for a settlement. This gives EU, China, India, Japan, and poorer nations in Africa, Asia, such as Pakistan, Turkey, Indonesia and Brazil, some relief from reduced access to oil supplies. US is also planning a supply from Venezuela to India to take pressure off oil supplies in Asia by offering Venezuela as an alternative source. China is in many ways joining the US to bring about a denuclearized Middle East, doing it in a quieter way with Iranian public opinion making a shift to put its economic development ahead of missile development. As the two sides have different interpretations and it is still only a Memorandum of Understanding it is not a situation where the US is sending billions of dollars to support the military in Iran as Obama had done. Attention will shift to the Iranian economy over the next 12 months.  US conveys that it has nothing to gain from wrecking the Iranian economy or nation as the Iranian people if avote were held today would clearly choose putting the economy first by huge margins considering the widespread protests in Iran in 2025 that started this crisis. The US naval blockade was effective and is always an option, with US and partners having greater experience in the situation presented by the narrow straits in Hormuz. Arab partners also acted with restraint and is itself an opportunity for Iran to change direction. China's making cuts of 3 million barrels a day in oil supplies from Hormuz is itself along with acceleration of renewable energy in both China and India is one of the dividends of this crisi. Another is the gradual shift to alternative supplies from other regions of the world so that Hromuz region can no longer dictate oil prices in the world. Accelerating Venezuelan and UAE, US, other oil and gas  supply growth will also put increase supply and renewables reduce  demand growth as a result of the crisis to break the hold on oil prices of the oil cartels of Qatar, and Saudis. As a transition fuel oil can be be kept below $50 a barrel, not at prices at the whims of the princes in the Middle East at the expense of the people of the Arab world from Egypt the most populous and Tunisia, Morocco, to the Muslim nations such as Turkey and Pakistan,Iran itself which bore the brunt of this Hormuz crisis. The US has several priorities including in its relations with oil cartels dominated Mexico that  brings drugs and people across US borders, with other nations in EU and Asia that have benefitted through deindustrialization in the US leaving it poorer across a vast part of America. Advancing objectives in one area such as denuclearization does not mean not addressing priorities at home and in relations with other regions. China shares American interest in denuclearization of the Middle East this should now be put to the test. It is an entirely different situation in 2026 than what weak leaders from Bush to Obama allowed to happen by  wars in the Middle East - the US naval blockades of 2025/2026 are entirely different in cost in terms of men and dollar investment and used to convey America's determination not to waste vital resources of the Nation. The best policy is not to pursue policy for absolute wins but make intelligent choices and in some situations pause to reflect on the best course of action and other ways to reach goals. By getting China and the US as world powers for denuclearization even though this is not vocally said, both gain and both will come up with solutions. ...

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Late Show with Stephen Colbert cancelled by CBS as parent company Paramount merges with Skydance in 2025. The televisions late night comedy show with political overtones was a show that lasted 30 years. It goes the way PBS goes as PBS funding is no longer renewed by the US Congress and PBS seen now as a leftover from the 1960's. PBS covered a better part of the Cold War period from 1960 to 1990 and continued for another 35 years before funding was cutoff under DJT. The situation is different today with the rise of Asian nations, China and India. The Voice of America was also a part of the 1960's period and covered the Cold War, and lost its focus after 1990's. VOA is also being defunded for lack of effectiveness. New media, and new ways to reach the American people with new ideas, and reach the people of the world with new ideas are needed today.

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A joint article by Robert Rubin, Clinton era Treasury Secretary and Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute. Rubin was senior adviser to Citigroup during the period that Citigroup leveraged itself and invested in lower quality securities that have left the firm exposed to substanital losses, and led to hiring a new CEO Vikram Pandit to clean up the mess. And this may explain the joint article with a less well known economist Jared Bernstein, and the tentative nature of their advice as the two differ on the important issue of long term fiscal deficits and still agree on investing heavily in healthcare, education infrastructure, worker training and energy. In a short recession they may be complementary and you could have the best of both worlds as in the other postwar recessions. But this is unlike any of the postwar recessions and is shaping up to be a long and deep downturn unlike anything seen in the postwar period. That Rubin does not even mention this shows that probably he is out of touch, as he was during his years when Citigroup was acting much like the other banks that were in serious trouble this year. Some of the decisions for lax regulation during the Clinton years were taken with the support of Rubin and Greenspan. What Rubin calls the longest expansion could have been for the most part good fortune and a steady period for the economy with Rubin's contribution being fiscal discipline, stewardship of the Mexican rescue package and committment to free trade policies, but not facing upto huge headwinds in the economy that required challenging leadership and judgement. Here Rubin mentions nothing that suggests bold vision and judgement, instead hoping that old policies that worked during the good times would somehow work today. And on some issues like labor being squeezed and getting a smaller portion of the economic pie with no support for unionization, a drop in the number of unionized workers and weakened labor bargaining strength, Rubin who now sees this as a bad trend for the working middle class incomes, did little in his years in the Clinton administration to reverse or slow this trend. He cites productivity growth of 20% from 2000 to 2007, and yet the real income of working age middle class households was falling $2000 or 3%. ...

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Oil prices drop below $38 by mid-December 2015, as the Saudis continue to push prices down further by continuing production increases. No change is planned for 2016 and analysts expect low oil prices into 2016. At $38 a barrel it becomes uneconomical for most shale oil producers to operate in the U.S. About 50,000 jobs are lost in Texas and 250,000 jobs worldwide. This is a boost for large oil importers such as India, Japan, and Europe. China also stands to benefit from low oil prices. Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran and Russia have the most to lose from an extended period of low oil prices. Politics in the Middle East also may play a part in decisions as the Saudis oppose intervention in Syria and Iraq by Russia and Iran. Rising shale oil production in the U.S. could also be one of the additional targets of Saudi policy. One consequence is that OPEC is divided with the Saudis going their own way.

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Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson and his negotiating team meet EU president Ursula Leyen for dinner in Brussels on December 8, 2020, to get over fundamental differences for a Brexit deal. This report in The Guardian describes the details of that dinner meeting.  Boris Johnson told parliament that the European Union was asking Britain to be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its own fishing waters. He said the EU was also asking that if the EU were to pass a new law that Britain does not comply with they would have the right to  automatically punish Britain or retaliate. On the issue of environmental and other laws that relate to the EU and Britain they are both at the same level today. The EU is worried that in future competition between Britain and the EU in trade and business Britain could relax environmental or other laws to gain an unfair advantage. Boris Johnson and his Conservative party back benchers insist that Britain should have sole right to make its own laws. France's Macron introduced the idea of automatic retaliation as a way to get Britain to keep a level playing field. Both sides see this as a negotiating tactic, hence the dinner meeting as a way to let top negotiators including the leaders to set an informal tone to the final stage of tough negotiating. Merkel made her own remarks to the German parliament saying she was willing to let the negotiations collapse if Britain rejected the EU approach. Merkel stated that if Britain insisted on certain conditions EU could not accept she was willing to let Britain leave without an exit agreement. This way if something went wrong Merkel would not take the blame.   ...

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Pope Francis makes atonement for the treatment of 150,000 tribal children from Canada's Indian tribes in Quebec and Ontario. These children were separated from their families in a program of forced assimilation that failed. Indian tribal people and the regions of Quebec and Ontario are only now coming to terms with the treatment of tribal people who inhabited this land for centuries before the first European settlers from Britain and France arrived in North America through the Atlantic ocean voyages. This scene is relevant as India's leaders including Mr. Modi select a tribal woman from Odisha (Orissa) Ms Murmu a school teacher in India's northeast to the position of president of the Republic of India. It was never thought of this way yet tribal people exist in Indonesia, Philippines and many parts of Asia. In India tribe population is 106 million and makes up anywhere between 8 to 30% of population mostly in the northeast and tribes are the dominant population in the border regions facing China in its occupation of Tibetan region. This shows there is a lot to learn in how to respect the dignity of the people in these regions especially now when with climate change  sustainable living is the first priority.  ...

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This part of the West Indies has so much in common with India, not just the cricket from Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago. From street vendors to temples there is a constant feel of India in Trinidad. It comes from 150,000 indentured laborers sent by the British from India to work on sugar plantations. Their descendents make up most of the population on Trinidad. Tobago has Afro-Caribbean culture and sounds, in Trinidad temples dot the highways and the music on radio is mostly English songs in Hindi lyrical style. The oil and gas wealth that is seen in the high rise buildings in the capital Port of Spain blend easily with street stalls selling chana masala on flatbread, a staple of Trinidad.

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About 2.6 million eligible to vote people in Michigan and 3.5 million in Pennsylvania, and 1.3 million in Wisconsin did not vote in the 2016 election. The critical states this time are also Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and these three states went to the winner by less than 10,000 in Michigan, 20,000 in Wisconsin and 50,000 in Pennsylvania.  A NYT analysis of Census Bureau data for 2016 election reveals that most of these people who are eligible but do not vote have lost interest in both parties that show little interest in delivering for them. Many of them are shown to be lower income voters, voters doing 2 jobs, or voters struggling financially. Some are single child parents in today's social structures. Getting a small portion of this vote can make a difference in a close election.  From 1840 to 1900 the percent of voting age population that voted has been between 70 to 80%. By the 1920's this dropped to about 50%. And it has been around 55% since the period of the Great Depression except for elections in 1952 and 56 for General Eisenhower and 1960 for John Kennedy. Even Harry Truman's whistlestop train campaign in 1948 got only 51% out to vote. Even the Roosevelt FDR three campaigns in 1932, 1936 and 1940 got 52-58% of voting age population to vote. The highest of any election was the election that led to the Civil War in which Lincoln won where 81% of the voting age population voted. Is it possible that America was a relatively much more prosperous country in the period 1840-1900 before large scale immigration from poorer parts of Europe and then poorer parts of Latin America and Asia, and large scale urbanization. With ample land and independent farmers in the nineteenth century leaving less scope for the poverty that exists in urban areas and social decay in rural areas and small towns that is seen today. Resulting in a much more civic consciousness and awareness of America's future and destiny than exists today. By comparison voter turnout in India has increased to 66% in 2014 election and 67% in 2018 after alternating high and low between 50-60% since 1947. Some forecasts are for a high turnout in the U.S. in 2020 to exceed 60%. The bright side for democracy is shown by the 911 million people who voted in the last Indian election of 2018. ...

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Allan Blakeney was health minister of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, and later premier of the province. Blakeney, as health minister in premier Woodrow Lloyd's government expanded a program in 1962 to cover the costs of doctor provided medical care. Earlier in 1946, the Saskatchewan government of Tommy Douglas setup a program of universal insurance coverage for hospitalization. This program of universal healthcare was extended to all of Canada in 1966. He later headed the provincial New Democratic Party and was premier of Saskatchewan from 1971-1982. During this period he introduced a New Deal for People, which included a dental program for children, prescription drug program, subsidized housing and a guaranteed income supplement for the elderly poor.

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A poll released by Datafolha on June 29, 2013, shows a sharp drop in popularity of Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff from 57% to 30%. In northeastern Brazil, an area where the ruling Workers Party enjoyed strong support, Rousseff's popularity fell sharply from 64% to 40%. Over 80% of respondents in the poll expressed support for the street protests in Brazilian cities over poor infrastructure, transportation and public services, and overspending on soccer stadiums at the expense of basic services. A protest over bus fare increases set off the street protests. Rousseff's response to the protests have come under criticism- the president offered to conduct a referendum for improving the political system, and channel oil royalties to education.

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Do not judge US UK relationship only by trade of $148 billion yearly. US companies invested $1 trillion in the UK in 2023, and UK companies invested $630 billion in the US. Both countries share a common economic, law and constitutional framework, and British settlers opened up a vast continent in North America by settling along the Atlantic coast from Maine to the Carolinas. It is this system that was adopted in India, Canada, Australia and other parts of English speaking countries of the world.

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Italy's centre left Democratic Party wins a crucial regional election in Emilio-Romagna. Its candidate Mr. Bonaccini, was elected president with 51% of the vote. The Northern League candidate was second with 44% of the vote. The 5 Star Movement won only 3% of the vote. The rapid decline in support for 5 Star Movement is leading to speculation about the future of the coalition of 5 Star and the Democratic party. At one point in 2018 national elections Five Star came in first with 33% of the vote. 
The win gives the coalition government more time to complete its term in office. The League's Mr. Salvini is calling for a snap election hoping to gain from the collapse of 5 Star party's popular support. Started by a comedian 5 Star never was an organized party with a clear message and platform.

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Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

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Efforts are being made at the current Commonwealth meeting in London to revive the organization of nations that were part of the British Empire. In earlier years India had stayed away from the organization and it was becoming outdated. Prince Charles personally carried an invitation to prime minister Modi of India asking him to attend Commonwealth meeting in London in 2018. Britain is keen on reviving the organization following plans to exit the EU and set up trade deals with countries such as India.

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Germany and the European Union are improving their defenses as the conflict drags on. The US position DJT has articulated is to bring an end to the war to end the daily loss of lives on both sides. Looking back was it worth loss of hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides and the damage to the economy, to housing from bombing, and the millions of refugees many older people, just for the Association Agreement with the European Union in 2013-2014. This has been completely mismanaged by all sides, the EU officials responsible, the governments in Europe including Russia and Germany, and Ukraine's political parties and their appeal to the people, and by the administration of Obama in the US. DJT and administration officials have long made it clear that they don't want this war, the war in Ukraine. A conflict that has been going on in some form or other between parts of Ukraine in the west and Russian influenced regions in the east as governments changed before and after protests in Kviv in 2013 over an agreement on association with the European Union long before the current war; some favorable to Putin and some not like the current government. So it is surprising that Medvedev would make remarks about DJT and the US to draw a confrontation between the two powers US and Russia in this way in X, remarks DJT calls "inflammatory."  Especially when the US is trying its best to negotiate and end to the war by pressuring both sides. It's defending of Ukraine only to stop the missile attacks on it's cities to give peaceful resolution a chance, not to aggravate the conflict.   ...