LyrArc Article Gist
It has happened before- the issues and the tactics. This article is from the Washington Post March 10, 1985. The 2016, 2020, and 2024 US campaign for president most resembles the 1952 campaign between Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson. In that campaign Senators Joseph McCarthy of Wisconsin and Senator Jenner of Indiana made unfounded statements and criticism of of candidate Adlai Stevenson, of Gen. George Marshall, of NATO and aid to war ravaged Europe under the Marshall plan, and by 1958 of Eisenhower for "ruining the party," according to the Washington Post. Edward Jenner, Senator from Indiana 1952-1958, conducted Senate hearings in which he made spectacular criticism of public figures and US policy from 1953 to 1955. Eisenhower was elected as president in 1952 and after considering running as an Independent reluctantly accepted when New York Governor Dewey asked him to do on the Republican party ticket. What is similar is that the issues and tactics used now are reminiscent of issues and tactics in those days in the 1950's, that this is not happening for the first time- it is not new. Both Senator Taft who headed the Republican party at the time and president Eisenhower felt uneasy about this type of criticism. Then as today it was about aid to Europe and NATO. Jenner said America could not afford it and it "would bankrupt America." Jenner also called the US Supreme Court "the most powerful instrument of the communist global conquest by paralysis," and introduced a bill to limit the SC jurisdiction. Jenner said in 1951 on the Senate floor, according to the Washington Post-  "the only choice is to impeach Truman," as "this country is in the hands of a secret inner coterie directed by agents of the Soviet Union." Today's differences are not new, the rhetoric familiar, about NATO, Europe funding, about the SC, about this and the former president, and about isolationism and about extended costly foreign wars, all after a pandemic and climate change in an uneasy atmosphere about the threats to American leadership then from the Soviets now from China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As only 8 out of 90 banks fail in E.U. stress tests, there is considerable skepticism about the rigor of the stress tests in July 2011. All the banks are relatively smaller banks, with five in Spain, two in Greece and one in Austria. The failed banks have a total capital shortage of 2.5 billion euros. Analysts had expected over 20 banks to fail and requiring tens of billions of euros of capital injections. The 2010 tests had experienced the same criticism, with seven lenders failing and a capital deficit of 3.5 billion euros. European Banking Authority officials concede the lack of sufficient rigor in the tests and attribute this to conflicting political pressures from regulators and banks. EBA officials say their main usefulness is in the added transparency and information it brings. In the 2010 stress tests each bank had to show 149 pieces of data. In the 2011 tests this went up to 3200 points of data about exposures from government debt to derivatives. EBA Chairman Andrea Enria put it this way: "There is this perception that there are things hidden under the carpet, this will help the market to make up its own mind." About 1000 pages of documents were released by EBA to analysts, investment bankers, and investors after the tests....

LyrArc Article Gist
Debbie Wasserman Schultz's vigorous efforts to fire up the Democratic party's base after the waning of support since the 2008 presidential election. She says it is a make or break moment for the middle class and drawing attention to the problems of the middle class is not class warfare. She was chosen by Obama as the Democratic National Committee chairwoman as the party heads into the 2012 presidential election.

LyrArc Article Gist
In speaking about Indian democracy and human freedom not mentioned was the unprecedented food security or freedom from hunger that was offered to one sixth of the world's population in India since March 2021, year of the pandemic. Not mentioned was the unprecedented health security or freedom from viral epidemic that was offered to the same people in that period with 900 million vaccine doses. Not mentioned was the freedom of expression in 15 Indian languages including freedom to write about the government at local, state and federal levels in the country with a wider spread of language and regional dialects than Europe for 75 years since independence. Not mentioned was the struggle within this democracy to give the younger generation of people under 30 who make up the biggest part of the population an opportunity for the first time in about one thousand years to take charge of their own future. All this one can see with open eyes and open mind. These are also the young people who have the most to gain or lose from the wrong actions at the wrong time, as they take up the challenges of modernization of a clean and vibrant infrastructure friendly India of the future.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Debt of poor countries is a serious problem in 2022. Debt owed to foreign lenders by low and middle income countries increased by 6.9% on average to $9.3 trillion in 2021, faster than the 5.3% in 2020, according to World Bank estimates. As a result the percentage of the poorest countries in debt distress or high risk of debt distress increased from 15% in 2015 to 60% in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund.  The pandemic has clearly worsened the situation for countries in weak economic situations in 2019. A country is in debt distress when it is unable to fulfill its financial obligations and debt restructuring is required. Argentina, Sri Lanka, Pakistan are recent examples of countries undergoing serious debt restructuring after falling behind in debt payments. Rising interest rates, inflation, and weak growth lower government revenues and make it harder to make the debt payments to service the debt. A list of weaker economies shown in this WSJ report where interest rates have risen are Russia, Ukraine and Belarus in Europe, Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela in Latin America, Ethiopia, Ghana and Mozambique in Africa, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in Asia. Mismanagement of the economies, overborrowing, not taking corrective action during a period before the crisis, corruption, wars or drought, factors affecting tourism or remittances from overseas, are some of the factors leading to debt distress. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
What Krugman makes of the $1.089 trillion dollar U.S. deficit for fiscal year ending in Sept. 2012. He points out that the U.S. can have a stable to declining debt to GDP ratio with $400 billion debt. He cites the Clinton years (1992-2000) when the debt to GDP ratio declined from 49% to 33% with steady growth. What about the remaining $600 billion. He attributes this mostly to temporary factors which are reversible as growth picks up. Of this remaining excess deficit he says $400 billion is from lower tax payments to Treasury because of the 2008 economic crisis and the recession that followed. This includes the payroll tax cut which is also temporary to keep up consumer spending in the recession. The $150 billion is from unemployment insurance, food stamps, and other aid which is also reversed once growth picks up. He places emphasis on restoring economic growth as early as possible and reducing unemployment and using the recession for business to continue to invest in R&D, productivity, and government to preserve the social fabric, invest in education, and provide incentives for growth. S&P Nov. 8 report says the net government debt to GDP ratio is estimated to be over 80% in 2013. It will have to stabilize at current levels for S&P to preserve the U.S. credit rating, says S&P executive Chambers. The higher debt to GDP ratio in 2013 and lower growth rates expected makes the situation different from the lower debt to GDP ratios during the Clinton period. Britain, France and other major industrialized nations with political parties at either end of the political specrum have also chosen to stabilize or reduce debt to GDP ratios rather than take on the risks of them going much higher. The U.S. has the added problem of health care costs out of control with an aging population and about 17.9% of GDP going to healthcare costs in 2010 expected to increase significantly, as Medicare actuaries estimate enrollee numbers jump to 80 million in 2030 from 50 million in 2012. Democrats and Republicans have largely sidestepped this underlying problem in fiscal cliff negotiations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Bond investors are looking to Japan for clues after the U.S. credit downgrade and two years of zero interest rates. William O'Donnell, chief Treasurys strategist at RBS Securities sees similiarities with what happened in Japan- short term rates near zero and long term rates headed down. strategists see the U.S. 10 year Treasury note dropping to less than 2%, from 2.23% today. Japan's 10 year Treasury note yields 1.05%. O'Donnell's forecast is for 10 year rates to be at 1.70% by mid-2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
The nearly unanimous support for president Trump in the impeachment inquiry from Republicans in Congress is a result of strong consistent support from a loyal base, strong fund raising in competitive races for members of Congress who supported Trump, and the sense that the whole process was flawed and part of partisan politics. There was also a sense among members of Congress in the House and Senate that the actions in Ukraine did not rise to the level of impeachable offense.  Throughout the process from the beginning Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence, Mr. McCarthy minority leader in the House and Mr. McConnell majority leader in the Senate stayed engaged with individual members keeping together a tight knit community of legislators. As a result unprecedented action was seen in 2019-2020 with every single Democrat voting for impeachment and every single Republican voting against, and prominent members of each side showing outrage at events or how the proceedings were conducted. Each side even seeing the impeachment inquiry as a strategic step towards the presidential election in 2020. Democrats looking for some slight advantage in the midwestern states that moved the election to Trump the last time. Republicans seeing this as a way to rally the base, play to Mr. Trump's strengths in persuasion, and to vigorously defend the economic achievements in international trade agreements and the economy. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The former president is shown in the special counsel Jack Smith filing of Oct 2 and in this report in the Washington Post to be indifferent as rioters stormed the Capitol on Jan 6, 2021, telling an aide "So what?" Vice President Mike Pence was driven to an undisclosed location that afternoon for safety, and the president was informed, according to the filing.

LyrArc Article Gist
Social distancing is relaxed in places such as Delhi market in Chandni Chowk, India, as the Diwali holiday approaches. This is similar to what happened in Europe in the summer. India has managed to bring down the daily cases to 44,000 after reaching a high of 100,000 in September 2020 for a population of 1.3 billion people. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Online shift hit Macy's hard. It is now closing 150 stores by 2026. Macy will concentrate its resources on its remaining 350 locations including the Bloomingdale stores and BlueMercury stores. Salez stagnant at $23 billion profits down by 91% to $101 million. Workforce cuts of 3.5% planned and no plans to sell the company to venture capitalists.

LyrArc Article Gist
Rent for apartments declined in all major metropolitan areas in the US for each of the past 6 months as new supply comes to the rental market. Rents declined by 8% in the Seattle area since August 2022. This WSJ report says people may have maxxed out on how much they will pay for rent.

LyrArc Article Gist
About one and a half time of voters are more likely to be against voting for Mr. Trump for president in 2024 than for Mr. Trump, according to a WSJ poll taken after the four indictments, says this Editorial Board opinion in WSJ. It cites the poll of 1500 respondents taken August 24-30 which shows 24% more likely to vote for Trump in a general election and 37% less likely, 35% no effect. WSJ says this presents political headwinds for Republicans.

LyrArc Article Gist
Maps of U.S. coronavirus by state as of April 1, 2020, that reached 189,000. How coronavirus is surging worldwide with 75,000 added on March 31 to reach 874,000 coronavirus cases detected worldwide. China's numbers have not included coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic. 

China continues to see coronavirus cases with 166 new cases on March 31, showing that it public health authorites have to be vigilant about a restart of the epidemic once it comes under control.

LyrArc Article Gist
A detailed discussion of P/E ratios and opinion of different experts on why the U.S. stock market may be overpriced in 2012. The divergence between P/E ratios in Europe and the U.S. is of special concern. P/E ratios for 10 years in Germany and France are at 12, compared to 22 for the U.S. The gap between U.S. and German and French valuations is about 10%, compared to a 120 year average of 1.7 percentage points, says the chief investment officer of Citi Private Bank in London. Safety is one factor, but the divergence is too wide to be accounted for by safety alone.

LyrArc Article Gist
Women's World Cup Final at Navi Mumbai 2025 -India vs South Africa. India 298. South Africa requiring 9 runs an over at 209 for 6, are bowled out for 246. Deepti Sharma with a knock of 87 and 2 wickets is player of the match, Shefali Verma could have been player of the match with 5 wickets. Harmanpreet Kaur with her own batting performance and captaincy could also have been player of the match. South African captain Wolvardt scores 100 but requires much more to get to 9 runs an over when South Africa were 209 for 6. The batting performance of Kaur and Sharma and bowling by Verma and Sharma set India on the right path to win this game.

LyrArc Article Gist
Microsoft's new Surface Tablet with a keyboard to be introduced with Windows 8 in the second half of 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ireland is paying close to 6% for the cash it is getting while European authorites are paying 3% to issue bonds in January 2011. With the rate at 3.5% over German bond yields, J.P. Morgan estimates that Ireland would have to generate a primary surplus, excluding interest costs, of 2.3% in 2015. This is what it would take to stabilize debt against GDP. Borrowing at one percent lower Ireland would need a primary deficit of 0.2%. Ireland is in its third year of fiscal austerity, and this unjustly penalizes Ireland. An interest rate reduction would be contingent on Ireland achieving fiscal targets and monitoring by the European authorites.

LyrArc Article Gist
Italy's borrowing costs went up to 5.6% interest on 6.5 billion of five year bonds sold on Sept 13, 2011. This was up from 5% at a similiar auction in July 2011.

LyrArc Article Gist
Republican Senators Corker and Blount are confident that a solution can be devised for the sticking points on a deal between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Republicans consider the savings in the Reid plan from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq a "gimmick," but essentially the Reid and Boehner plans say analysts are similiar in the inital cuts in spending. The sticking point for Democrats is on the whole process of the debt ceiling extension having to be redone in early 2012. For Republicans the sticking point is in in tax increases which the Reid plan leaves out in the initial period for debt limit extension into 2013 when a new president takes office. House majority leader Boehner is facing opposition within his party and this restricts his leeway for striking a deal- the Boehner plan passed in the House by a vote of 218 to 210 on July 29, 2011, with 20 Republicans voting no. It was voted down in the Senate that same evening with a vote of 59 to 41, with 6 Republican senators joining all 53 Democratic senators. As it stands now, the weekend before the August 2 deadline, President Obama concedes that there is "rough agreement" about the size of the first round of spending cuts, and the "next step" to rein in borrowing. He went on to say that "if we need to put in place some kind of enforcement mechanism to hold us all accountable for making these reforms, I'll support that too, if it is done in a smart and balanced way." Its the design of this enforcement mechanism that is the main point in the remaining negotiation. The nature of the committee selected from both parties for the next phase of savings, its powers and the trigger in the sense of what it can ensure happening if no decisions are taken by both parties. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Trump says he supports the House Republican tax plan for three brackets 12%, 25% and 33%. In his earlier proposal Trump has supported a top rate of 25%. He made these comments, including support for deducting childcare costs, in a speech at the Economic Club of Detroit. Trump did not repeat a call for repealing Dodd-Frank bank supervision legislation. Clinton was critical of Trump's economic team of business people from hedge funds and the real estate industry, saying this was another example of "trickle down economics,"  for giving  "super big tax breaks to large corporations." Michigan has not voted Republican since 1988, and the auto industry rescue was organized by president Obama, a point heavily advertised in the 2012 presidential campaign. Romney had opposed the rescue effort, and during the 2012 campaign the WSJ reports say  Trump called the bailout of automakers a mistake because of expansion overseas.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. is keen on rebuilding its manufacturing now that the pandemic has exposed the weakness in depending on outside sources of manufacturing. After decades of job losses that hurt millions of workers and ripped apart the social fabric of America, this also left America bereft of the very ideals of opportunity for all on which the country was founded. This story by Asa Fitch and Luis Santiago in WSJ shows how America which produced 75% of the world's chips in 1990 when China's participation was negligible or non existent, made only 12% of the world's chips and semiconductors that power computers and smartphones in 2020. China's ascent only began as recently  in 2010 under a state model that targeted particular industries as Taiwan and South Korea had done before. America's failure to protect its technology led to the situation today. As this report points out Intel is the major American manufacturer of chips and it has a role to play in bringing back production and technology base to the U.S. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Analysts point out that there is not much room for austerity cuts in Italy and Spain without cutting into muscle. This is because these countries have moved to make austerity cuts much earlier. Their budget deficits are actually less than what they were when they joined the euro currency zone. In the case of Italy the budget is actually in surplus, to the amount of 2% of GDP, when the financial position excludes interest on debt. And Italy has now moved to reduce the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2011. Under pressure from the ECB Italy has announced its aim of balancing the budget by 2013. Because both Italy and Spain have growth rates estimated at below 1% for 2011, analysts believe it is important to emphasize growth.

LyrArc Article Gist
Many of the one million veterans get their care at VA hospitals. Between 2018-2021 Medicare paid insurance companies $44 billion for Medicare Advantage plans that many of the 1 million veterans covered did not use as they went to VA hospitals for care, according to this story in the WSJ. During that time VA paid $46 billion for veterans care.