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The crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 in the global economy saw huge stimulus programs, resposible economic management, and rapid recovery by the end of 2009 in developing countries. China put in place a large stimulus program, and in most developing countries, India, Vietnam, Brazil and other countries efforts were made to strengthen the safety net for the poor and to introduce stimulus for creating jobs. India and Indonesis saw the return of ruling party governments and in Brazil Lula da Silva had favorability ratings above 60%. So contrary to earlier fears in late 2008 their was both asense of political stability and asense of confidence in the developing countries. Capital is flowing into these countries and the IIF says that net private capital inflows to developing countries will double in 2010 to $672 billion. Russia which saw capital outflows of $50 billion in the first 9 months saw $20 billon of capital inflows in the fourth quarter of 2009. Half of the 140 million laborers working in Chinese cities returned home in early 2009, a fifth stayed there and another fifth counld not find work when they returned to the cities. But as the stimulus in China kicked in, and infrastructure development surged, (see link to the rail infrastructure spending) by the middle of 2009 jobless ness among rural migrant workers went down to less than 3%. This shows in the Pew Global Attitudes Project wth more than 40% of respondents in India, China and Indonesia saying that they were satisfied with their lives, in China this was 87%. In France, Japan and Britain the share is below 30%. In America 49% of those in the Pew pollingfelt that America should mind its own business internationally, 30 points higher than in 1964. When asked "Are you better off in free markets?" the respondents share fell in 2009 in Germany by 4 points, in Spain by 10 points. Shares rose in India and China, and stayed flat in Brazil and Turkey, so there is no backlash against free markets in developing countries....

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After decades of neglect by different administrations and apathy at US semiconductor companies, semiconductor production investment in the US is beginning to take place. But the US Chamber of Commerce warns this is only a small trickle compared to investment in Asia. In a report on Nov. 22, 2021, the US Chamber of Commerce warns that only 6% of new semiconductor global capacity added over the next 10 years is expected to be located in the US, and urging that $52 billion in direct subsidies in the US for new chip factories be approved quickly by the US Congress. That the cost of owning a new chip factory in the US compared to South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore is higher by 30%, and in China by 50% is largely attributable to  the availability of subsidies in these countries from the government, and the absence of these incentives and subsidies in the US, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association report published last year. South Korea, China and Japan are now accelerating the pace of these subsidies and incentives. So that the US has a lot to do to make up for the years of neglect of its technology and competitive leadership. This WSJ Investigation report says South Korea aims to double its annual chip exports from today to $200 billion by 2030, and is offering billions of dollars in tax breaks, lower interest rates, other investments, including asking local governments to ensure adequate water supply for chip making. To keep up the US needs to change its entire approach to investments in critical industries from the approach and lethargy of the previous administrations since the 1980's.  US semiconductor companies, the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Biden Administration need to put together a concerted effort for US chip leadership beyond the slight increase from 16% to 24% the US hopes to gain in production of advanced chips by 2027 under the present plans cited in the WSJ. The Biden Administration issued a joint statement Nov. 23 that it is working around the clock with the US Congress, and more work remains to be done to "ensure that America remains the most innovative and productive nation on Earth." ...

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This NYT analysis of fund raising by the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2020 election campaign shows Republicans hardly raising any money from people with incomes over 250,000 and very little from incomes over $200,000 with most funding coming from the base white working class and lower and upper middle class. For Democrats fund raising is significant at the levels of income over $200,000. Geographically the Democrats get most of their funding from the east and west coast areas.  This reflects the changes in the parties starting in the the 2008 elections when higher income groups in software, finance, and in professions of law and medicine and Silicon Valley tech shifted to Democrats. The Democrats also held onto minority votes. In 2016 this changed with a sharp turn with tech on the west coast and finance professionals on the east coast shifting to the Democrats. The PPP agreement under Obama favored tech over the auto industry, and renewal fossil fuels such as solar were favored over the oil industry and fracking. In 2016 this helped shift the votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania to Republicans. Older manufacturing industries, oil and fracking were supported by Republicans who pushed back against ceding global dominance in manufacturing to China. By 2020 these changes are now entrenched with white working class voters in industries decimated and communities destroyed by foreign imports mainly from China, supporting Republicans. Republicans under Trump have made regaining the manufacturing leadership of the U.S. that was the situation after World War II, a top priority for the U.S.  The minority vote shifted with Hispanics moving towards Republicans to a much larger degree than before. The urban rural divide is similar to Europe where the similar impact of foreign imports mainly from China have destroyed older industries and led to sharp decline in older towns and communities outside major cities. This is the situation facing the U.S. and Britain, France, Italy Spain, and Poland. Germany as a manufacturing country dependent on exports is also affected but to a lesser degree. The unwholesome aspect of this is that the larger urban areas are divorced from the rest of the country  and rural small towns, smaller cities. In some form reintegration has to take place. The vast majority of the working class classified in today's terminology as the less educated lacking a college degree and white are  paradoxically with Republicans, and the wealthy professionals and industries in software, finance with Democrats. Nothing makes this more evident than a quick look at the map of the U.S. with blue on the opposite coasts for Democrats and mostly red in between and in the south. This is unprecedented in American history. A rising tide that lifts all boats in the U.S. and the return of the U.S. to the position it held after World War II could change this in the next decade. ...

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While much of the focus is on the brief air war in the Punjab region in the media. In China, India and the US the real and major challenges are economic. As US tariffs is really about getting back its industrial base from the EU and China, China faces the challenge of adapting to this situation and loss of access to EU and US technologies for the next generation, and India with a smaller industrial base faces challenge of building a large enough industrial base for modernization with full access to US and EU technologies. This is then the study of change starting right here in Uttar Pradesh and in the city of Kanpur. New Metro in Kanpur, new power plants, and new manufacturing plants and infrastructure. PM Modi says- "There are two most essential conditions for the industrial progress of a state: first, self-reliance in the energy sector — that is, uninterrupted electricity supply; and second, infrastructure and connectivity. Today we have inaugurated several power plants: the 660 MW Panki Power Plant, 660 MW Neyveli Power Plant, 1320 MW Jawaharpur Power Plant, 660 MW Obra C Power Plant, and 660 MW Khurja Power Plant. This is a major step toward fulfilling Uttar Pradesh’s energy needs. With these power plants, electricity availability in UP will increase significantly, giving a boost to industries here. Today, development projects worth over $6.7 billion (Rs 47,000 crore) have also been inaugurated or had their foundation stones laid.” ...

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Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

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Of 161 million people employed in 2024 about 40-50 million in vulnerable groups living from paycheck to paycheck and without savings to support them in a medical emergency is a real problem in the US economy. It is why even as unemployment looks good at 4% and inflation down to 3% there is a lot of angst for Americans for cost of living. Fifteen million baby boomers who will turn 65 years for retirement between now 2024 and 2030 face a situation where they have less than 250,000 in savings. Many who were born between 1945 and 1962 called baby boomers are in this group with diminished savings. In the prime of their careers they were hit by the 2009 financial crisis caused by bank speculation risk taking. They also were hit by the pandemic in the peak years of income growth. Other such vulnerable groups are young people with high student who are being helped by president Biden. There are also the low income groups that have been hit by medical costs and a family emergency that were pushed into poverty. Other groups in the millions are the people at the low income levels who are working paycheck to paycheck because of housing costs. About one fourth or 25% of apartment renters are people whose households budget shows 50% or more going to housing costs which have increased 20% in the last 2-3 years, which includes the pandemic years 2022 and 2023. President Biden seeks to limit apartment rent price increases to 5% and Kamala Harris has proposed help for families for the portion above 30% of household income going to rent. The jump in cost of living from automobiles, automobile repair and housing, cost of groceries have affected other groups with large credit card debt. This is a result of the supply chain concentration in China which comes from American business overconcentrating production in China and previous administrations doing little about this. Biden's answer is to bring jobs and manufacturing knowhow and investment back to America. During the pandemic some people resisted getting vaccinated and lost their jobs, a million people lost their lives, others took early retirement seeing the stress ful lives during the pandemic, others including women quit to take care of children. This has reduced the labor supply to business leading to tight supply higher prices.The result is that there are about 5 such vulnerable groups each with about 5-10 million people for a total of about 40-50 million people at risk. For these people the cost of living presents huge challenges, including childcare. It includes young people and retirees, single women and families on low income hourly wages that have not kept up with inflation.  ...

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India stands true to the principles of Mohandas Gandhi and joins Pope Francis in strongly condemning the killing of innocent civilians in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Gandhi would have done in his own way when he even paused the nonviolent struggle against the British after the burning of police stations in British India. Of no less significance is the danger of food insecurity caused by the war in Asia, Africa and Latin America which India is meeting. India is America's true partner in the free world in a way that even Germany, France, even Britain fail to be now that we know Merkel's policy "errors" and Macron's lofty ambitions for Europe, emboldened Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. American and German business integration of the American and German economies with China may also have emboldened Russia and China in their perceptions of world affairs that directly conflict with China's Buddhist history, Gandhi's view of the world, and India as the land of the Buddha.  Mr. Biden will talk with Modi about the invasion of Ukraine , the Indo-Pacific, and the building of strong India-US partnership. A major issue that has not been discussed at this level is the challenge India is facing and meeting of food security after the war in Ukraine. Pakistan, Sri Lanka and many developing countries are feeling the effects of the war with soaring food prices denying access to basic necessities in these countries. This extends to countries from Asia to Africa and Latin America affecting hundreds of millions of people.  India is providing food assistance following its effort to share vaccines in a remarkable effort that has not received the world's attention. Vaccination for over a billion people in India has taken place in one of the significant achievements during the pandemic. This was combined with food security assistance to hundreds of millions of people in India in India's population of 1.2 billion people. India is now in a position to meet some of the world's food needs with its own efforts in agricultural production. In this way the role played by the US since World War II for peace and security is being met by India as a significant partner in the free world, and in a way this is returning the kind of help the US offered India during the period of famine in the sixties. US president Biden understands this as he will discuss "mitigating the destabilising impact on global food supply and commodity markets" of the war in Ukraine. These are the hidden costs of the war that are not less painful than the gory war scenes unfolding today in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and because they are about food they are of no less importance. ...

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The protest vote in Uttar Pradesh is just that a protest vote intended to get a message that the work of the Modi government to modernize and industrialize the economy needs to be accelerated to see its effects felt in rural agricultural areas of Indian states. Modi said yesterday- "If you work for ten hours I will work for 18 hours" showing that he sees the need for acceleration, even harder work ahead to modernize and industrialize India.  Disconnect with lower caste untouchable voters called Dalits and economic distress felt from the effects of the pandemic, decades of neglect that take time to correct in one of India's largest and least industrialized states Uttar Pradesh, led to prime minister Modi failing to get most of the 80 of 543 seats as it had done in three previous elections. Lower caste Dalits form 20% of the population, other lower castes another 40% of the population and 20% are Muslim voters. With this mix of voters and the time it takes to modernize and industrialize its economy in a state that was neglected for over 60 years the Modi government's best intentions have not delivered election results in the state in 2024 after the pandemic. Delivery on schemes for sanitation, clean running water, affordable housing, cooking gas for poor households, that have brought 250 million out of poverty nationally and about 40 million in Uttar Pradesh alone, was overlooked by voters, and younger voters. This does not change the path of modernization that countries such as China have taken and which require a strong administration with full public support working with industry and all parts of society to build infrastructure and manufacturing rapidly over 15-20 years. In China this happened from 1990 to 2010. In India this will take 2014- 2030 to achieve. In Bihar, UP, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, in all these states with large areas of backwardness in development the only path to realize the aspirations of the people is the path offered for modernization by prime minister Modi. The protest vote of 2024 is then a way of saying to prime minister Modi that the level of development needs only to be accelerated to see its benefits for hundreds of million of people in rural agricultural areas. ...

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Paul Krugman says in this column in the NYT that Biden's policies for trade reflect a stronger conviction for protecting American technologies and building its manufacturing base than previous administrations including the Trump administration. With less rhetoric and with quiet determination Biden has placed American domestic manufacturing as a requirement for renewable subsidies for new electric vehicles manufacturing and sale in the Inflation Reduction Act. In the Chips and Science Act Biden has placed US semiconductor technology promotion and manufacturing at the core of the Act. Krugman says this was the right thing for Biden to do. The renewable subsidy comes from ordinary Americans paying taxes who would benefit most from new jobs created in the electric vehicle industry. China has gained such a big lead in semiconductor chips manufacturing and materials by supporting its industry, that it is the right thing to do to give American manufacturers the same kind of support. Trade rules were about creating a level playing field, yet previous administrations failed to create that level playing field, and the Biden administration has boldly made its point clear. ...

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The lack of reliable statistics and production information for China's steel industry. The World Steel Association says China's steel production went up by 7.5% in April 2011 over the prior year. In 2010 it says China produced 625 million metric tons. These figures are based on information from the China Iron and Steel Association, which represents 75% of steel producers in the country. Because much of the reporting is voluntary many smaller producers do not report their production figures. MEPS, a steel consulting firm in the U.K. , says there is extensive underreporting because of political pressure on inefficient mills to shut down. These mills continue to operate but fail to report production, as a result production may be understated by 45 million tons, according to MEPS. This becomes important because if the Chinese economy slows down much of the steel warehoused in China because of higher taxes on raw steel exports could end up being exported. Inventory levels are higher in China because of the taxes and the storing of steel by mills slated for closure but still operating. This would cause a drop in steel prices on world markets. Steel is different from other commodities in that it is not traded on the London Metals Exchange or other Exchanges. Sales are privately negotiated sales between steel mills and users such as auto plants....

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This analysis in The Guardian says US president Biden is reversing 3 decades of policy since president Reagan that looked with skepticism at government intervention in the economy. The $1.9 trillion aid package Biden has pushed through Congress is a big game changer in the way government operates to help rebuild America after the pandemic. The 2009 response by the government under president Obama was done without conviction that the government response was the best way to help the economy. By 2016 voters turned to a Republican, Mr. Trump, to help working class voters with a USA first policy, after decades of presidents from both parties Republican and Democrat failed to protect American interests in manufacturing, jobs and incomes.  US president Biden is continuing Trump's policies to protect working class Americans. And bringing new conviction that government not only has a positive role, but has an essential and vital role to play in protecting workers and households struggling to make ends meet. President Reagan had introduced such a deep skepticism of government, that it took so long for people to remember FDR and the role of government before the second world war and afterwards under the Truman administration.  What changed? The health care crisis exposed the weak areas in the governance and policy mindset in America. China had advanced mainly through strong government role of the Communist Party  in steering the economy and business to gain competitive advantage. The health crisis from the pandemic further devastated America's lower middle and working class following the banking and financial sector mismanagement by 2009. The pharmaceutical and health care sector similar to other sectors had shipped manufacturing overseas. In 2021 there is a deep sense that theories don't work, one has to act based on the needs and the situation the country is facing. The way competitor nations such as China are building new infrastructure, gaining manufacturing advantage, dominating key sectors and industries, and creating jobs, requires America to respond. In this situation posing the threat America faces as well as the social dislocation of decades of misguided policies, the US government is the only one capable and having the resources and capacity to respond.  ...

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Thomas Bach is a German fencing athlete who won the Olympic Gold medal. He is from Wurzburg, Germany and was elected in 2013, in office as International Olympic Committee president till 2025. In the new election in 2025 Bach supported Coventry of Zimbabwe, a winner of the gold medal in swimming for the job, over a candidate from Spain whose father Samaranch held the same job, and COE a candidate from Britain. Other candidates were from Japan and France. The process of voting and the people voting is not representative of the world's people. As countries such as Germany and Spain are dominant. Britain and France, China and India have never elected a representative from their country as IOC president in the 20th century or the 21st. IOC presidents are there for long periods, as long as 20 years. Avery Brundage of the US was IOC president from 1952-1972  for 20 years followed by Morris of Ireland for 7 years. Following this in 1980 another 20 year term for a Spanish businessman Antonio Samaranch, whose son tried to run in 2025. In 2001 12 years for a Belgian Jacques Rogge, followed by another 12 years for German Thomas Bach.  In 20th century no one from France or Greece, no one from India or China has been elected IOC president and the election process is an insider's affair, even thought the games are watched in China, India and other parts of the world by hundreds of millions of people. ...

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NYT Shanghai bureau chief Alexandra Stevenson sends this report on the magnitude of the problems facing Country Garden, China's largest housing developer, Country Garden has $200 billion in unpaid bills, has missed interest payments on debt. It lost $7.6 billion in the last 6 months. A million apartments remain unfinished. The government's first concern is that buyers are made whole, it is less committed to housing as a driver of economic growth. And the numbers are just way too large for the government to tackle. By one estimate the unpaid bills goes as high as $370 billion in unpaid bills. What happens to all those construction workers, carpenters and other workers who remain unpaid. Country Garden follows failure of Evergrande another huge Chinese real estate developer in 2021. Experts say even if people buy Country Garden's apartments the losses are too large to make up.

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Issues raised by the huge mismatch between revenues and investment for AI. $400 billion estimated investment by 5 Tech firms in 2025 alone with revenue of about $40 billion and huge uncertainty about when AI will produce returns. Articles seen this week of November 17 in the WSJ and NYT on this issue, podcasts, discussions in other media outlets. Could this lead to a dot com bubble type economic crisis? Could that lead to a recession? Alongside these articles another article in the WSJ on Nov 17 shows the benefits small firms get by using AI, benefits which are on the fringes of their business, not essential but with some experimenting firm owners/managers able to tweak AI information for use in business. Nothing significant which firms will pay much money for. The uncertainty is a major factor. Should geopolitics trump all these concerns? Is the competition with China require this scale of investment, and is China following a more utilitarian approach as reported in a WSJ article this month, of investing in AI in a utilitarian way targeting its use in improving manufacturing, improving infrastructure, and not wildly throwing money at experimental uses that are unlikely to yield much result. In geopolitical sense would the country that not only promoted AI but used it efficiently and cost effectively, used it in ways that promote the overall public good, get the WIN. In short it behooves everyone of us to ask hard questions of AI, to dehype the hype, to look for the public good that comes out of this from it's efficient use. To ask the tough questions when $400 billion generates only $40 billion in 2025 and the $3 trillion planned investment over 5 years is half unfunded, is it going to crowd out energy needs for homes and business, push renewable energy targets back, crowd out essential investments in the crumbling aging infrastructure of the US and Europe, crowd out essential investments in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, that hold better promise for our People. Will it also put retirees at risk when corporate bonds from retirees money fund the unfunded portion of AI? This means making the political dimension not about migration, settling the illegal migration issue that was meant to be settled a long time back, or about cultural issues that have little day to day impact on our lives which are about groceries, childcare, housing that are non ideological. Making the political dimension not about remote countries that one knows little about except when it affects public safety and health as with fentanyl. Capital allocation decisions to the vital needs of America can then be free of politically induced error, so that it can be subjected to the test of how best it serves the public interest and the people of the Nation. ...

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The yuan has gained 16% since the peg to the dollar ended in 2005. For years China has resisted letting its currency appreciate significantly, why the change of heart now? Its seen as a positive thing by China's leaders to let the yuan appreciate and its now part of Chinese policymaking. First it helps keep inflation down, keeps the rising prices of imports energy, commodities, and food under control as they are denominated in USA dollars. Second it sends a signal to manufacturers to move up to more sophisticated value added products that are not sensitive to pricing and can accomodate a stronger yuan, because its precisely the manufacturers who operate on thin margins and make lower end products who will go close down. They also cost the economy in terms of higher pollution and damage to the environment in a way that higher tech products do not. And China wants to undo or limit the damage to its environment. Third by lowering rebates or eliminating rebates and letting the curtrency appreciate its changing the emphasis from exports to domestic markets and domestic consumption. This combined with new laws on wages and benefits is designed to promote domestic consumption which can better carry the burden of economic growth than exports because of the slowing down of the developed western economies especially the USA which is going through what may be a severe and protracted downturn. It also helps that China need no longer be portrayed as taking advantage of free trade through huge surpluses. Its constructive as it will help rebalance the world trading system as the USA can improve its trade deficit and China can accelerate its growth by importing more western machinery and technology and not have to depend on precarious export markets for economic growth that it badly depends on to improve the living conditions of hundreds of millions of its people. By building a large middle class of consumers china can continue growth using its domestic markets at a pace that is still very healthy and not likely to build inflationary pressures which may be a welcome thing....

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Toyota is reducing its dependence on the US market by growing in China, Russia and the Miidle East and with plans for growth in India with a lowcost car. The market in China and Russia has grown by 40% for example and this should mean there is room for overall global growth even with the slowdown in the US. In China Toyota is falling short of demand as its consistently underestimated the growth in the market. When Toyota thought the Chinese market would hit 8 million vehicles by mid 2007 it actually hit 8.5 million. So in many countries like China, Russia and the Middle East and India Toyota may be scrambling to meet demand in the future which suggests that in the long term Toyota may be less affected by the ups and downs in the US market. The US manufacturers like GM are following a similiar strategy. Competing with Toyota overseas the US makers have none ofthe liabilities they face in the US market, years of sloppy service and image, pension and health liabilities, union rules and restrictions, and they are moving some of the best technology and design into overseas markets so the competition there should be on more even ground....

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This WSJ report on critical analysis of coronavirus data has a very useful chart of Estimated Range of Symptomatic Cases Reported by Country. Complete coronavirus data for all symptomatic persons who have the coronavirus infection is lacking in most countries. Many people in large populations have symptoms and are positive but are not reflected in the official data collection. This is a big problem as the total number of cases are understated by a magnitude of twice to five times the numbers reported in official tally.   South Korea has done a good job of getting more of the symptomatic people with the infection in its data, as about 53% to 90% of such persons are reflected in official data. Next comes Germany at a range of 38% to 55%.  China comes third and has about 28% to about 38% of such persons reflected in its data, the U.S. currently on April 4 at about 14% to 19%, according to this chart in the WSJ. The source for this is Mathematical Modeling Center at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. What this means is that the US. number of cases at 278,000  reported infected people with symptoms (April 4) is only 14% to 19% of the true number. Another way to say this is that the actual infected persons with symptoms is about 5 times what is reported, or over 1 million not the 278,000 reported.  As happens for China data collection agencies may never get the true number. To be comparable to the Chinese numbers, as the U.S. is a large country, the figure closer to the true numbers would be twice the 278,000 reported or over half a million symptomatic infections of coronavirus in the U.S. Why is this data important. With widespread testing as in South Korea one gets data that tells one how many people are infected (the size of the problem) and therefore the resources needed and the point of greatest impact. Also it tells one the typical transmission rate per person, and it helps hospitals in each area know what to expect and what resources are needed to prepare- not find people suddenly turn up in the E.R. in unpredictable numbers. The lack of widespread testing and better reporting in the data to get a grip on the pandemic is shown in this chart for countries hardest hit, less than 5-6% for Italy and Spain. The UK and France at 5-8%.   ...

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On global wheat, corn and other cereal prices. The effects of the ethanol boom in the US and the record corn crop to meet ethanol demand. How this plays out in emerging market countries like Russia, China and India and Mexico. Will this help farmers especially withthe urban-rural divide and disparities in living standards in China and India. At the same time what do the higher prices do to the urban poor and poor people in general in the emerging countries where the impact of higher prices hits a large part of their budget.

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Shen Wei arrived in New York from China in 1995 from Guangzhou, he is originally from Hunan province. He was on a scholarship from the Nikolai/Louis Dance Theater Lab. In 2007 he was awarded a fellowship by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. For years he went to every concert and art gallery he could find and opened his eyes to a new way of seeing the art world. Now he is back in China helping choreograph and setup the opening and closing ceremonies in Beijing for the Olympics.

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Gerald Seib in the WSJ gives 3 reasons for reluctance of president Trump to get involved in wars in the region on behalf of the Saudis- the U.S. is less dependent on Saudi oil with its increased oil production, China, South Korea and Japan depend on Saudi oil making it necessary for these countries to pay for the conflicts not the U.S. Other reasons are the U.S and Mr. Trump's opposition to endless wars that lead to neglecting U.S. priorities such as infrastructure and building its economy.  If the wars cost trillions of dollars the U.S. expects the Saudis or Asian countries to pay the U.S. for the cost of these wars. Japan is the most dependent on Saudi oil and it is playing a constructive role to reduce tensions between Iran and the U.S. Mr. Macron of France is playing a role because the EUropean Union also imports oil and wants to prevent the Iran nuclear deal from being ditched or at least for it to be renegotiated.

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The Russian position for a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks is set forth by president Putin. "Our principled position is that state of Ukraine must be neutral, non aligned and free of nuclear weapons." Putin wants Ukraine to give up Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian speaking regions in the east of Ukraine. Capitals of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and some of the territory is controlled by Ukraine today. It means that Russia could accept a ceasefire under the present lines of control. It also means Ukraine would not be part of NATO, though it could be part of the European Union, as a peace settlement. All western sanctions on Russia would have to be lifted. Throughout the decade of this war Russia has maintained close connections to the Russian speaking eastern part of Ukraine with historically close ties to Russia and as Ukraine public opinion shifted to the EU Russia began its efforts to bring these regions under its control even when German-Russian relations were better during Merkel years. Russia has the support of China and Brazil in its position. At some point if a settlement is reached one possibility is that the line of actual control or LAC would be put in place. It happened in the Korean War, when the demilitarized zone was setup and in other conflicts on the Indian border with China and Pakistan, in Cyprus between Greece and Turkey. For it to happen Russia will have to dispel fears in the EU and the US that Russia will continue the conflict at some later stage till all its objectives are achieved. This requires removing the perception that Putin is set on achieving all his objectives to reopen the war at some later stage. Mr. Putin hinted at this by saying "today we are making a concrete real peace proposal," and adding that Russia was not ''talking about freezing the conflict, but its final resolution." In this situation it is the western doubt about Putin's intentions that is another barrier to a settlement on European security, with continued destruction in Ukraine when the war has entered a stalemate where both sides have exhausted their resources and have little to gain by prolonging this conflict. ...