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DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

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The anti-corruption bill for creation of a Lokpal agency passed the lower and upper house of the Indian parliament in December 2013. It was stalled for two years after the efforts of political activist Anna Hazare's protest movement for passage of the bill. With national elections approaching in 2014 and the ruling Congress party's image bruised badly in state elections of Dec. 2013, party leaders decided to support the bill. In the elections in the capital Delhi a anti-corruption party, Aaam Aadmi (for the common man), created only recently, won a major part of the seats. In India corruption hurts not only at the national and local level as in China, but affects the daily life of the common man as bribes are required from ordinary people for anything to get done that requires approval from the huge government bureaucracy. In that sense it takes a toll on economic development and affects the quality of services received by the vast majority of people, which is why the party calls itself "common man."...

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Pakistan's economic delegation meets Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, at the IMF and World Bank Annual meeting in Bali, Indonesia. Lagarde calls for transparency in accounting and complete understanding of Pakistan's debt. IMF delegation will visit Islamabad to discuss terms for a loan. The previous government of Mr. Sharif came under criticism for not providing transparency on Pakistan's total debt. There is concern about debt trap diplomacy in loans from China, as loans may exceed the country's ability to repay and the interest rate terms are not seen as favorable to Pakistan. The Sharif government is criticized for not negotiating better terms for loans from China. Pakistan faces $8 billion debt load in 2018, with first payments to China under Belt and Road Initiative of $1 billion due in 2019. Pakistan's total foreign exchange reserves fell to a low of $8.4 billion, according to the central bank. Pakistan is seeking $12 billion in IMF assistance, but experts say more will be needed to bridge the financial gap. The Pakistan rupee dropped by 10% during this week in October 2018, down to 137 rupees for a U.S. dollar. The new government of prime minister Imran Khan took office in August 2018 after election promises to bring transparency to Pakistan's debt situation. Promises were also made to improve low income housing and meet needs of poor and low income public. Imran Khan opened a public housing project to build 5 million new homes. IMF terms could restrict the money available for badly needed housing and other social projects.  Pakistan's small tax base with a small percentage of the population paying taxes, also restricts the ability of the government to fund social welfare projects and infrastructure. It makes the country more dependent on outside assistance and loans. India has moved to expand its tax base, and is implementing GST tax reforms to increase the tax revenues available to fund infrastructure, health, education and housing. The war in Yemen has complicated other sources of funding traditionally accessed by Pakistan from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The financing gap is estimated by experts to be $20 billion, with the IMF assistance sought of $12 billion falling short of the financial needs. ...

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Ford Motor Company's results in the second quarter of 2013 show sales up 15% to $38.1 billion. Profits were up to $1.23 billion from the $1.04 billion for the same quarter in 2012. Most of the profit comes from N. American market with $2.33 billion pretax profit in the second quarter of 2013, increasing from $2.01 billion in the same quarter 2012. Earnings in Asia were $177 million, after a $66 million loss in 2012 for the same period. Losses in Europe were down to $348 million from $404 million in the second quarter of 2012. Vehicles with a common platform strategy such as the Kuga in European market and the Escape in the U.S. market are part of Ford's strategy for maximum coverage worldwide are helping increase sales. Building of 7 new plants in China under a $5 billion investment plan and a 8th plant under construction have helped increase sales in China. As a result car sales in China increased 47% in the first half of 2013 to 407,721 vehicles, in a late effort to catchup with VW, GM and Toyota. Overall sales growth in the automobile industry in the U.S. provides about 20% of growth in U.S. GDP, according to Ford economists....

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Continuity and stability mark the choices for the new cabinet in India of PM Modi. Retaining their Ministries are-Jaishankar at the Foreign Ministry, Nirmala Sitharaman at Finance Ministry , Amit Shah at Home Ministry, Rajnath Singh at Defense, Narendra Modi at Atomic Energy and Space Agency and the Personnel, Public Grievances Pensions Ministry, Also continuing are Nitin Gadkari at Roads, Transport and Highways, Piyush Goyal the Commerce Ministry. Prahlad Joshi formerly in parliamentary Affairs is now at the New and Renewable Energy Ministry plus the Consumer Affairs, Food public distribution ministry. Hardeep Singh Puri retains the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Sa Newcomers to Cabinet-Shivraj Singh Chouhan three term Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh in central India is the new Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Ministry a critical ministry in a still rural country. Ram Mohan Naidu (TDP &NDA Andhra Pradesh) is the new Aviation Minister Jyotirao Scindia was placed with the Telecom Ministry. Kishan Reddy was given the Coal and Mining Ministry. Lalan Singh close associate of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is the new Fisheries, Animal Husbandry, Dairying and of Panchayati Raj village local government. Sarbananda Sonowal is new Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways with the job of building modern shipping logistics for exports in the way China has done. Ram Vilas Paswan from Bihar at the Ministry of Food Processing. ...

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BHP Billiton was known as Broken Hill Proprietary in the 1990's. The largest Australian mining company, it was based in Melbourne and simply known as the Big Australian. It had huge losses in that period - $3 billion in 1998-1999. The turnaround at BHP Billiton comes as a remarkable turnaround for the whole mining sector. BHP made $6.5 billion in profit in the year ending June 2005. Its not just rising Chinese demand that has made this possible. Billiton has taken steps to avoid past boom bust cycles in mining by taking a conservative approach to investing in new mines that might create an oversupply in the market. The company is run buy a banker. CEO Charles Goodyear avoids taking on large risky projects and has announced plans to return $2 billion to shareholders in stock buybacks. Even with this discipline compared to the past, some mining analysts believe the boom bust cycle will occur over time. HP has $10 billion worth of projects in different stages of development. One advantage the mining companies enjoy is the concentration of mining in a few companies- BHP, Rio Tinto, Xstrata PLC. This makes it possible to price aggressively for the nickel, copper, iron ore, and other metals. A 72% price increase was negotiated with steelmakers in 2005. Another part of the transformation is the use of risk-analysis tools. BHP uses "Monte Carlo analysis" to check all potential outcomes once a range of parameters- commodity prices, currency vales, interest rate scenarios- are entered that affect financial performance of a new mine or a new investment. Goodyear came in as CFO under a new team led by Paul Anderson, a former executive of Duke Energy Corporation, after the huge losses in failed copper mining investments in the late 1990's. Even with the recent success and the careful investing discipline there is a sense that things could change quickly if rising demand slows in China and other developing countries. And in that situation this discipline may prove insufficient and the models may only be good as the assumptions and information entered....

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Giridhardas on how foreign reporting has changed with the internet. He says foreign reporting for U.S. newspapers from India or China is read more widely in India and China than in the U.S., as the internet provides access to news about the home country published in the New York Times or the Washington Post.

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Germany's export oriented economy and its export oriented companies are struggling in 2021 with broken supply chains and high energy prices. This report in the WSJ looks at how Germany needs to rebuild its economy in a different way. German industrial output was 9% below its 2015 level in August, compared to 2% for the eurozone as a whole, according to EU's statistics agency. Italy's growth was 5% over the same period. There is a redirection underway to bring more production back home after years of outsourcing and outshoring. Other changes taking place are the policies being put in place for net zero emissions by 2050, and the targets for 2030 that would make this possible. This also changes prospects for Germany's large auto industry. By 2030 30-50% of all cars will have to be electric cars. About 30% of Germany's industrial output and exports are tied to overseas demand, 4 times that in the US. From 2003 when competitive overhauls took place under chancellors including Mr. Schroeder, German industrial growth was sustained by demand from China. Now with China looking to internal demand following global tensions on trade, sales of some companies are looking flat instead of sustained year over year growth. What will happen now? Here is what the likely new chancellor from the Social Democrats has to say about the overhaul of the German economy and industry- "It will be the biggest industrial modernization project that Germany has carried out probably for over 100 years, and it will really help our economy." The SDP and Greens that together share the same ideas for rebuilding Germany around infrastructure and climate change and upward mobility, badly neglected in the Merkel years, plan big investments. Big investments are to be made in climate protection, high speed internet, education, research and infrastructure. Germany's net investment rate has been around 0.5% of economic output since 2000, compared to 1% for Italy and 1.5% for the US, according to the World Bank. This WSJ report even says net public investment has fallen below zero as existing assets depreciate. To achieve this transition Germany has identified several problems. One is the delays in investment projects that cost German companies 55 billion euros a year, about half the money invested in research and development, according to Germany's statistics agency. Germany was thought to be an industrial powerhouse but the quality of work in projects and delays so apparent in the Berlin Brandenburg airport infrastructure project clearly shows a decline over the past two decades. This will need to be fixed. Other problems are in getting more workers as Germany faces a shortage of workers for factories to 2030.     ...

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NYT Shanghai bureau chief Alexandra Stevenson sends this report on the magnitude of the problems facing Country Garden, China's largest housing developer, Country Garden has $200 billion in unpaid bills, has missed interest payments on debt. It lost $7.6 billion in the last 6 months. A million apartments remain unfinished. The government's first concern is that buyers are made whole, it is less committed to housing as a driver of economic growth. And the numbers are just way too large for the government to tackle. By one estimate the unpaid bills goes as high as $370 billion in unpaid bills. What happens to all those construction workers, carpenters and other workers who remain unpaid. Country Garden follows failure of Evergrande another huge Chinese real estate developer in 2021. Experts say even if people buy Country Garden's apartments the losses are too large to make up.

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Indian PM Modi to visit US on Feb 12-13 2025 to hold talks with DJT at the White House. India accepts the 18,000 undocumented migrants as DJT says he is confident that India will do the right thing on this issue. Talks will centre on the new supply chain and reducing overdependence on China for manufacturing, bringing jobs and factories back to the US and how Vikshit Bharat 2047 fits into the US plan for a diversified supply chain in Asia.

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Coral Davenport of the NYT provides some of the basics of the Paris climate change agreement. This includes an effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions by half to avoid a situation in which atmospheric temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius or 3.6 degree Fahrenheit.  The earlier effort to negotiate an accord failed in 2009 in Copenhagen. This time all 186 countries were asked to signup with the USA and China, the No. 1 and No. 2 polluters and India leading the way. Germany is well on its way to self sufficiency through development of solar and wind energy with the German government leading the way, and France leads in the use of nuclear energy. How did this happen now? As Davenport points out there are scientific studies. But this is not the primary reason China is shifting.Davenport fails to emphasize the health concerns and pollution concerns that motivated China to shift away from coal. China's industrial revolution of the last 3 decades has come at a huge cost in pollution of air and water, and president Xi Jinping has decided to make the shift away from coal a top priority. It is estimated that mortality rates for areas of high coal use north of the Yangzte river have higher mortality rates than areas of lower use of coal south of the Yangzte river. The other big polluter India is shifting because it is learning from China's experience. Davenport mentions the resistance to the scientific evidence in the Republican party. As a result it is already clear that it lacks support in Congress and under a future Republican administration. In a fashion similar to healthcare, president Obama failed to create a consensus before proceeding in the hope that this would be better than waiting. However American industry is already moving away from coal as documented in Links- "The Trump executive order on coal and the continuing shift to natural gas." Utilities in the U.S. are making the shift away from coal because of the economics and planning ahead as governments can change every four years. ...

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One perspective of what Silicon Valley is focused on is shown by Reid Hoffman. It does not mention climate change, not one word on climate change, no words on cost of living action, little is said about factories and jobs for reviving American manufacturing, helping workers and families and redesigning the world's supply chains. It is critical of addressing monopolies and regulatory action by the FTC even where it is needed. It calls for huge investments in AI that would leave little for investments in science, education, healthcare and infrastructure, and says "trust us to do the right thing." It calls for pro-innovation direction when pro-innovation has been the thrust of policy for three decades with the results that we have seen leading to widening gas between the upper and lower classes and shrinking of the middle, a pharma industry out of control in pricing, and negligible investments in education by so called "tech" companies who like Apple have outsourced manufacturing to China. A return to tech and Silicon Valley is not needed as embedding it in the nation's policy making priorities is the Nation's problem. ...

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Don't let the current holiday season retail sales fool you as they have held up reasonably well. The impact of the mortgage and housing crisis will be felt in a delayed manner. It won't be till 2008 that the impact will really be felt. And the impact is expected to be lasting and deep, could take the rest of 2008, 2009 and into 2010 for this protracted tightening of credit. About $300-400 billion contraction in credit is expected when banks tighten their credit lending because of losses they are taking in the mortgage crisis. This will happen in an environment of falling house prices and consumers will not have access to the $340 billion in cash from home and mortgage equity financing that they took out in 2006, estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Auto, retail, apparel, and luxury items would be hit the most. On the jobs side not all the jobs will be lost in the USA. The USA imports about $740 billion in consumer goods and autos each year, which is one third of consumer spending excluding food and energy. The lower consumption in auto and apparel would affect exporters in Japan and China and South Korea. But Chinese exports have reached a point that they are causing trade tensions and a call for strengthening the yuan. An increase in American exports and lower imports could help bring down America's trade deficit. This could give China an opportunity to build its domestic market and markets in Asia and Europe so that it is not so dependent on the US market. For the US where the savings rate is near zero this is an opportunity for consumers to build their savings and reduce debt. Europe and India and the Middle East are expected to continue growth and China may see slower but continued growth in 2008 and 2009. In the US industries like aircraft and infrastructure promoting companies that sell to countries like Russia, India Brazil, the Middle East, and China will continue to grow. And because rates are still low large nonfinancial companies still have access to funds for expansion and capital investment. In a global economy the US consumer may be one part of a much larger picture. ...

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China's exports bring in about a fifth of the 6.2% growth recorded for the first half of this year, according to this report in the WSJ. This means the tariffs on most exports to the U.S. is likely to affect the Chinese economy and its growth rate in the future. 

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That India is meeting and exceeding goals set under the paris Climate Change agreement is a great achievement of the last 6 years says this Hindustan Times editorial. India's achievements in solar and other forms of renewable energy have been achieved with a bold vision and strong effort of its own showing that climate change agreements are not the only way to tackle climate change. As one of the major users of energy from coal and fossil fuels India's bold action makes a huge difference for the world. As China, EU, Britain and Japan commit to a net zero carbon target India is now one of many countries in the competition to reduce fossil fuels. This also means HT says that India must now be prepared for technological competition as well as shift to renewable energy sources. The return of the U.S. to the climate accords now positions both countries to benefit from each others advances in renewable energy. Partnership with Britain and Japan also offers new possibilities for technology access and sharing so that more gains can be made to benefit India's and the global environment for clean skies, clean air and clean waters. ...

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See these really remarkable black and white pictures of what happens in a period of decay for industrialized economies as old industries die out- as happened in the UK,  in the US with communities left without hope. Only now with Biden and Starmer a new sense of purpose for the US and UK to correct what went woefully wrong- no plans for transition to new industries and outshoring of the nation's industrial base. This exhibition of 20/20 of photos taken by Kilip and Smith in black and white is at the Parr Gallery in Bristol, UK- you can see it here by clicking on original article right now. It is the failure to plan for the transition that has led the Conservatives from Thatcher onwards to the situation today, and a similar situation in the US from Reagan onwards. The haphazard transition has let China take the lead in new industries with government support. Only now is America under Biden making a real transition and backing up new industries for factory jobs with government support and planning for the next 10 years. Britain with the Conservatives in charge is without a clue and financially strapped- the mood in Birtiain is now for Labour under Starmer to right things the way Biden is doing in the US.  ...

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A look at the Palestine conflict from 1947 to 2023. The British Mandate for Palestine gave Britain a role in administering this part of the Middle East after it took control of the region from the defeated Ottoman Empire in the First World War 1914-1918. The League of Nations set up the Mandate with intention to take the people in this territory to independence. The UN in 1947 gave about 56% of Palestine to the Jewish people and 44% to the Arab people. When the Arab people rejected this UN settlement and Arab neighbors Jordan, Egypt and Syria invaded in 1947 about 70% of the territory went to the new state of Israel. There have been repeated conflicts almost every 7 years since and there are factions within Israel and inside Palestine Arabs who have protracted the dispute, including over holy sites in Jerusalem, without seeking the kind of settlement that won peace for Ireland after hundreds of years of British rule and discrimination. The world with its billions of people in China and India who seek development and billions of people in Africa and Latin America who seek a way out of poverty, has no interest in prolonging small conflicts that distract from the importance of tackling climate change, infrastructure development and education, healthcare, ...

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The RNC speech of the former president is described by the WSJ Editorial Board as long and rambling for 90 minutes after a good start becoming a typical speech that did not broaden the appeal, and with its random comments lacking clarity. The former president's claims on crime up when it is actually down by 15% according to FBI. On inflation and cost of living the inflation peaked at 9% is now down to 3% in 2023 with cost of living actions by Biden and Powell. The former president's solution to "Drill, baby drill," would only affect gas prices a bit, and do nothing for the principal causes of inflation in housing, in rental of apartments, in prices of automobiles and auto repairs, and in cost of drugs, student loans. Only a concerted action on all fronts as Biden and Powell have done would work, along with large investments in American manufacturing and jobs, which can only be done if no tax cuts are made for the wealthy not in the Republican platform. This means the hundreds of thousands of job creation each month happening now will stall and inflation from supply chains in China will be harder to control especially with a 60% Trump proposed tariff on Chinese imports. ...

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Yoon suk-yeol the prosecutor who decided to run in 2021 for the first time in politics, won the recent presidential election in South Korea. He talks to the WSJ in this interview report and outlines the policies of his administration.  Yoon say she sees upholding the constitution which embodies values of  liberal democracy and market economy as the deciding factors for foreign and domestic policy. He wants to build closer ties to the US and Japan. He will resume defense exercizes with the US that were suspended during the Trump administration. On China he sees continued economic relations as a trading partner, but sees flip flopping in foreign policy as creating risks for the Indo-Pacific region. If invited to join the Quad Yoon says South Korea  "will positively review joining." On domestic policy he says his goal is "to correct and normalize so that the market can operate as it should." Yoon led the prosecution in efforts against prior presidents and Samsung, and his known for his forthright approach. Yoon wants to see more foreign investment and says he will ensure that there is no discrimination against foreign companies, including eliminating unnecessary regulation. ...

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GST revenue increase is important because it finances healthcare, education, infrastructure building, jal ghar and cooking gas, Digital India initiatives, housing programs in a way that has never happened before and is needed for modernizing the Indian economy. The same approach is being taken by president Biden in the US to finance his climate and tax bill of $369 billion. It is the biggest climate action bill in history and revenues to finance renewable energy transition are coming from a 15% minimum corporate tax that is being agreed to by all countries in the world including US, Britain, European Union and India. Just today the WSJ the largest biotech company Amgen in the US paid 3.5% effective tax rate on revenues for 2013 when tax rate under federal law was 35%, and the IRS is working on getting $10.7 billion back in payments due over a decade. Much of Amgen's profits of $24 billion had been shifted to a location in Puerto Rico says a report in WSJ. The development work of the free world countries including US, EU, and India cannot happen without this. Without this the US, EU and India cannot even remain competitive with China or tackle national security threats. ...

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Compared to 1971 Bangladesh has come a long, long way, on its 50th anniversary. From 80% of the population struggling with extreme poverty in 1971, Bangladesh now produces enough food for its 167 million population. The economy is only 13% agriculture with most of GDP coming from industrial production and services. Girls education is remarkable. 98% of children have attended primary school and there are more girls in secondary schools than boys. Norwegians and other European observers who visited Bangladesh in 1970's compare the situation with today and are astonished says this report in DW.com. By 2030 the GDP of $409 billion is expected to double, bringing the country close to 1 trillion dollar economy. The garment industry is the second largest after China, with $35 billion a year in exports. It has changed life of women in Bangladesh, employing 4 million people. Remittances from overseas bring in $24.7 billion for 2021. Overall target for exports is $51 billion for 2022. Problems include the rural urban divide with development concentrated in Dhaka and Chittagong, and increased urban poverty. And despite rise in number of children and girls in school the quality of education for a skilled workforce remains poor, says this report in DW.com ...

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The landing of the lunar probe Chang'e-4  on January 2, 2019 makes China the first country to land a probe on the far side of the moon. This follows a landing by Chang'e-3 lunar probe in 2013. A followup mission Chang'e-5 in Dec. 2019 will collect samples of the moon's surface and send them back to earth. The goal is to build a lunar base by 2025 and man the facility by 2030, and in the long run mine the moon for energy resources.  The U.S. space program  has lacked the steady commitment and vision needed to put astronauts on the moon for a second time, and is now being given a fresh boost for challenges ahead.

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Now that congestion pricing plan is halted, the New York Subway system that has suffered from decades of neglect and disinvestment languishes in crisis. The NYT says it is hanging by a thread in this report. Compare this with the Tokyo subway or subways in Taiwan, China,  or other countries and one realizes how much damage years of disinvestment driven by Reagan/Friedman economic theory can do. Where Asian countries are investing in infrastructure, eight years after Republican Trump called for attention to infrastructure but failed to invest, and four years after the trillion dollar infrastructure program of president Biden, NY subway remains neglected. Ana Ley tells us what a difficult time it is for New Yorkers. After decades of neglect new subways are going up even in places such as Mumbai, India. How much longer must New Yorkers wait for government to partner with private industry for the NY subway system to be rebuilt, in the state that is where the Erie Canal was built in the nineteenth century in the first wave of the Industrial Revolution? The Erie Canal was built in 7 years for $7 million as navigable waterway with locks for elevation of 350 miles from the Hudson River at Albany to Buffalo and Lake Erie. It opened up the vast hinterland and granary of New York state and connected it to New York City, from the Atlantic to the Great Lakes. ...