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In extensive ranging comments Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg describes her positions on Supreme Court cases to Adam Liptak of the NYT. She hopes the next president after this one will be a fine one and is not perturbed by liberals who would like to see her leave so that another liberal could be appointed in her place. Ginsberg is 80 years, but says she works with her trainer twice a week, and works just as hard as in previous terms. She loves her work and will go on as long as she is able to do it. Her work leading the liberal opinion of Justices on the bench shows a senior justice in command of the issues. She has a framed copy of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009 on a wall and sees it as a response by Congress to her dissent in Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire Rubber Company. That 2007 ruling said Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 imposes strict limits for workplace discrimination suits. She sees the present Congress as too timid to take up more issues related to affirmative action and the Voting Rights Act. On the court's decision for the Voting Rights Act Ginsberg said in her dissent "It is like throwing away your umbrella after a rainstorm because you don't need it." Her views on Roe vs. Wade are that the law was too sweeping in making abortion rights constitutional and could have taken a different approach of striking down the law in Texas....

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The plan for a 4.5% mortgage rate the Treasury Department is considering is a good thing for stabilizing house prices and keeping up the demand for housing according to Hubbard and Mayer. Hubbard and Mayer are Dean and vice Dean of the Columbia Business School and Mayer is Professor of Finance and Economics. Their research estimates suggest that real house prices increase by about 75% of the decline in after-tax mortgage payments, so a decline in mortgage payments of 16% would result in approximately a 12% floor on the decline in house prices. In their view with the futures market suggesting a decline in house prices by 12-18% in the next 18 months a 4.5% interest rate might well lead to flat or even slightly higher house prices in 2009. How do they view other proposals to reduce foreclosures by reducing payments onmortgages with the government picking up some portion of the payments or reforming the bankruptcy code to keep people in their homes? In their view stopping foreclosures may not prevent house price declines as much as proponents claim. They now see the market as properly priced. In apaper to be published in the Berkeley Electronic journal of Economic Analysis and Policy they argue that in most markets house values are today lower than what is consistent with the average level of affordability in the last 20 years. The meltdown in mortgage markets and the poor employment outlook can cause prices to deteriorate and overshoot in the other direction. This is where government policy can help stabilize house prices....

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On one hand the issue of the $165 million in bonuses going out to employees in the 370 person Financial Products Group, and oth the other the need to wind up the complex derivative contracts that are causing these huge losses at AIG. But are such huge payouts needed for these employees to do their job? Isn't this aprofessional responsibility of these employees? And AIG's retention-payment program was disclosed a year ago and the amount of the bonuses $400 million, says the Washington Post, had been widely reported. The company is set to pay according to the WPost $600 million in retention awards to about 4700 people throughout the global insurance units. WHat happens to the $600 million, as no opinion has been voiced on these upcoming payments. The whole idea of retention payment raises another question. Will the skills of these employees be needed in a long drawn out economic downturn spread over several years or longer. And will thefailure of such things as derivatives, and the tighter regulation, mean that they will play amuch smaller role in the future. And even in the insurance units will these skills draw a premium in a market where the supply of new talent is larger than the job market ? One expert has sugggested that even if some of them left, there would be younger people to replace them who might bring an even better set of qualifications, with amix of skills, caution and prudence. So is there something self-interested and spurious in the retention argument itself and shouldn't this bluff be called? ...

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Risk taking CEO's steps at Shell appear to be paying off as Shell's share price does better than BP's. Better results in hiring, technology, management streamlining, in sourcing non-conventional output, and Libyan deal coming after restructuring of its Russian exploration project, all show improved prospects at Shell after new CEO took over. Jeroen Van der Veer, who assumed the CEO position in 2004, is interviewed by Chip Cummins and Guy Kazan at it London headquarters. Van der Veer took over after the scandal involving Shell's overstating of its oil and as reserves. His early steps were to centralize decisionmaking, do away with the dual board structure based in the Hague and London, and increase hiring of technology professionals. 4500 midcareer professionals were hired in 2006, a new Chief Technology officer was appointed, and seven "chief scientists," creating a new focus on technology development and research, and making technology leadership a critical part of its strategy. Van der Veer also bet heavily on new projects, including a $20 billion oil and LNG project on the island of Sakhalin in Russian Far East, and a $18 billion gas field plus natural gas to diesel plant in Quatar. Jeroen Van der Veer is described by colleagues as a thoughtful but firm and straight talking, low profile guy who joined Shell in 1971, at age 24. He ran a large Dutch refinery, tackling labor problems and implementing an expansion. He has a passion for long distance skating, having twice finished a 200 kilometer race through 11 cities in the Netherlands....

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The thinking is that a slight drop in the year to year increase in GDP from 11.4% to 10%, according to both IMF and Goldman Sachs group forecasts, isn't going to do much in reducing China's demand growth for oil. For one thing China's industry is very energy intensive and consumes a lot of energy to produce a give amount of output. Its estimated that it takes about 1% of increase in energy demand to produce 1% rise in GDP. It ranks as the largest consumer of coal and the second largest user of oil. It takes in about 8 million barrels a day of the 84 million barrels a day, that is 9.52%. Even as China's export sector slows down because of lower demand from the industrialized countries, the Chinese government can use its large cash reserves to build roads and bridges and ports and upgrade infrastructure to maintain employment levels. Major refiners margins have swung wildly from $30 in May 2007 from $10 in the last few years. Before the recent boom in refinery margins the margins average $5, and it looks like the boom in refinery building in Saudi Arabia, India and China and the US that resulted from shortage of refinery capacity, will bring margins back to their longterm average. A surge in oil prices that has outpaced the rise in prices of gasoline and refined products is shrinking margins and lowering profits and stock price of refiners like Tesoro and Valero. and upgrade its infrastructure ...

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How ACA a company that provided bond insurance for Collaterized Debt Obligation or CDO's basically did not provide good insurance to the CDO issuers becase it did not have the financial resources necessary to do this but instead let banks and investment houses to benefit from the accounting rules in the insurance industry which allow another set of accounting rules different from GAAP (Geerally Accepted Accounting Principles). Under these rules banks and investment houses did not have to follow the mark to market rules of GAAP and could book the difference between interest payments and the insurance premium across the life of the bond (5-10 years), in the quarter they bough the insurance, what were essentially illusory profits. Merill Lynch issued a lot of these CDO's. In November 2007 ACA was forced to take $1 billion in losses for the third quarter. Standard and Poors downgraded ACA from A to CCC a month later. The downgrade forced ACA to come up with more collateral to show that it had the funds to back up its insurance. When it came short of funds Merrill Lynch, UBS, CIBC had to take big losses on these policies. This began the first big shocks on the Street at te end of 2007. Note that $43 billion in securities backed by risky corporate loans and bonds like the ones used for a lot of the buyouts have insurance from ACA. These could be the next to sour and lead to more writedowns as the economy weakens. ...

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Compared to the Fed, Treasury and and American regulators hands off approach as the bubble in mortgages and in financial markets developed, China took some steps to restrain the real estate bubble in China. Starting in 2004 Beijing officials tried to limit speculation in real estate by administrative measures like setting quotas on how much real estate lending each bank could do. In August 20007 bank regulators began requiring larger down payments for second and third homes, and banks began charging linterest rates upto 3% points higher for those homes than for first home buyers. And other things make the Chinese market for mortgages quite different. About half of all chinese buy their homes with outright all cash. And down payments are 30% for first time buyers and 40% for buyers who are getting a second home. And male borrowers term of mortgage ends by law a age 60 and 55 for women whichmeans they build up equity in the home quickly and are less likely to walk away from a home. As far as the banks are concerned no securitization of mortgages has ocurred and banks hold a higher percentage of cash with capital equal to 12 to 14% of assets, compared to international regulatory standards of 8%. Prices have fallen by a third inplaces like Shenzen, and the central bank asked commerical banks to reduce mortgage rates and help borrowers with lower down payments, with the hope that this would stabilize home prices. However with the credit crisis economists expect further decline in home prices....

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Germany's Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schauble, in an intervew with magazine Der Spiegel, says the US Fed's action to purchase $800 billion of Treasury securities shows that US policymakers are at a loss about what to do. It doesn't add up, says Schauble, that the US with the help of the central bank's printing presses is artificially lowering the vale of the dollar, while at the same time accusing China of currency manipulation.

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Virgin America launches new service from San Francisco to New York and Los Angeles. It will provide more amenities typical of Virgin and at the same time let customers do this on a budget, bringing San Francisco to New York fares to as low as $250 excl. taxes. Its well funded which helps, with $128 million, and it has launched with a $3 million ad ampaign including San Francisco's city hall in its Virgin colors.

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WSJ reminds readers that it has not endorsed a presidential candidate since 1928. That it is not about to do it with the two candidates Biden and Trump. It sees many liabilities in the Republican candidate and does not see the future of America in what it calls four long years of political trench warfare. WSJ does not see a reinvestment in the economy, rebuilding of its infrastructure and preparing the transition to clean energy as two overriding priorities as do Democrats under leadership of Biden and policy being shaped by Sullivan after much study and reflection shown in speeches at Brookings and CFR. As a result it punts at the very time it should be looking to the future with confidence in the principles that built this nation as JFK has shown in his Profiles of Courage (1952) of senators and Congressmen who looked into their souls for the courage needed to face the future. It says Trump has been the greatest Democratic turnout machine since FDR, and Obama, with underperformances since then. It also refers to the court cases and says one third of Republican voters in Super Tuesday polls this week in March 2024 find that a conviction would be disqualifying. WSJ Editorial Board also says the Trump Presidency was a stress test for US institutions, that the checks and balances held. It sees no hope of political realignment in a Trump restoration, it sees only "four long years of political trench warfare. ...

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Ann Marlowe has completed her sixth embed with American troops. She is a visiting fellow of the Hudson Institute. Her views from the ground are that without good governance the American effort there seriously risks failing. She is very concerned that the current administration is not taking good governance seriously. There should be alternatives to the Taliban and to the Karzai government which has failed to win public support.

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A Romney win would end the gridlock in Washington reducing the political uncertainty in Washington D.C., with both Republicans and Democrats supporting short term efforts to revive the economy. This would increase confidence for business investment and create a better business climate after the divisive politics of the last 4 years. An alternative scenario in which this happens is a large Obama win with Republicans offering cooperation with the new administration, which is less likely with the condition of the economy.

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Acer President Gianfranco Lani says the company will ship between 10 million and 12 million netbooks in 2009, and 32 million to 35 million laptops including netbooks, which suggests that netbooks which sell for as low as $200 are almost half of its laptop/netbook sales. This shift and the pricing and sales pressures in the global economy resulted in a31% dropin profit, and operating margins dropping to 2.2% in the first quarter 2009, compared to 4th quarter 2008.

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Netbooks sales were half amillion in first quarter 2008, jumped to 4.4 million in 3rd quarter 2008, and are expected to double to 8.8 million in sales per quarter in 2009. Acer was the first to take advantage of this trend. It has moved to 3rd place in PC's after HP and Dell, and Apple is now in 4th place. A lot of new trends are changing the IT marketplace. These netbooks sell for $100 and may be the next big thing for developing countries, where a low cost computer would appeal to the millions of people in urban and rural areas.

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A new generation of young people born between 1995 to 2012 get the name iGen. It makes up 24% of the population in the U.S. San Diego State University Prof. Twenge describes this group of young people as open and tolerant but very casual about most things, and not literate in comparison to the Millenials and previous generations of young people. They are tolerant to LGBT and transgender, not church going,  and at the same time can be intolerant of other opinions than their own. One of four students in this group says someone who says something insensitive about race can be fired. This group also does not try to look deeper to obtain a better understanding. Virtual relationships are preferred to social relationships. They tend to spend about 6 hours on technology devices such as smartphones and social media outlets. They interact less and yet do not find time for reading, and read much less than GenX or Millenials, or baby boomers. Twenge says they are less informed about current events and their academic skills lag behind that of Millenials. Not that this is a good place they have found, as the more time they spend on the internet the worse they feel. Making them less happy than other generations of young people before them who had face to face interaction instead of endless hours on social media. The reviewer is skeptical of what is happening here, saying that the use of technology devices in this way has stunted their development in ways one could not imagine possible. Not let them develop the skills of previous generations of young people who did not have these devices and lived a simpler life with face to face interaction. ...

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It is not clear what this bazooka is. China's leaders are studying the economy carefully. Recent actions for stimulus were designed to offset weak performance of stock markets which have rebounded with Shanghai index up 11% into positive territory. Consumption spending is weak with worries about the safety net and propensity to save so that lower mortgage rates will mean households will pay of their mortgage first before increasing spending. Real estate construction is weak after bankruptcies in this sector. Some suggestions are for China to improve its safety net as in the US for working class people, low income families- to give them better medical insurance. And increase pensions of farmers, migrant workers, and low income families. They may still be inclined to save yet it is a move in the right direction as is happening in the US, and the trend worldwide is to reduce stark social divisions. China just lacks the resources for the kind of revival in the US that Harris has planned. As long as the US was frittering away its resources in foreign wars it had one hand tied behind it's back, as long as it did not invest these dollars going to wars overseas in the domestic economy it would languish and fall behind. It was in this sense Joe Biden who did the hard work that Trump after raising the alarm signals failed to do for lack of focus, and now it is Harris who is building the game plan for the kind of US that led the US into the twentieth century once before- optimism, imagination and hard work. ...

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The Byrd rule says Congress cannot pass changes to retirement rules in a reconciliation bill which do not require 60 votes to pass in the Senate. Using this method to get Trump's mega bill for tax cuts passed means that of DJT's promises to eliminate taxes on tips and social security only the tips one will be made into law. Congress will still give retirees a break by adding $4000 to the standard deduction for those 65 years and over. 

Social Security benefits were never taxed before 1984. In that year Reagan began taxing Social Security benefits.

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President Biden addressed the Nation from the Rose garden today November 7, 2024. His remarks were conciliatory. "You can't love your neighbor only when you agree."  "Something I hope we can do, no matter who you voted for, is see each other not as adversaries, but as fellow Americans. Bring down the temperature." It is a remarkable end to a remarkable presidency which history will judge as perhaps a single term in which more was done than in any other 4 year term of a presidency, except for FDR in 1932 and Lincoln in 1861, tackling a once in a century pandemic, and rebuilding the economy, manufacturing, and infrastructure. And even correcting missteps on immigration by getting the legislation to fix it. It is a tall order for anyone who succeeds Biden though in the current post election situation there will be the typical euphoria on one side and losing on the other.  During the Republican sweep by Herbert Hoover in 1928 Franklin Roosevelt was elected governor of New York and he used the intervening years to 1932 to prepare for the monumental task ahead by testing his plan for economic recovery using New York and a couple of states from Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Maine and New Hampshire, setting up the first unemployment insurance, shorter week, annual employment and other ideas to stabilize employment for one third of the US economy. Biden says he has asked his administration to work with Trump's team for the peaceful transition to a newly elected president. None of the fears about the transition came true with the new president getting a clear mandate to tackle the cost of living crisis for Americans. ...

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In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China. US cannot have it both ways. It cannot compete with China in chips and allow temporary market forces do the job of decimating its chip industry.    Market forces are rags to riches and mostly short term ignoring long term. Nvidia now valued at $1 trillion under market forces would not exist today. WSJ showed recently that only with the help of a loan from a Japanese Sega videogame executive Iramijiri to Nvidia founder Jensen Huang was Nvidia able to survive market forces in 1998. Qualcomm a maker of phone chips has made a takeover offer of Intel in 2024. Intel shares dropped 60% this year and is valued on share basis at $90 billion- yet was recently at $290 billion closer to its true value as America's chip pioneer and leader. Qualcomm is at $185 billion. Yet share values can be rags to riches as Nvidia story of going up to $1 trillion in 2021 and $3 trillion in 2024 shows. Such a deal draws anti trust concerns with too much control under one company. A deal for takeover of British owned ARM by Nvidia was stopped by regulatory authorites in UK and the EU in 2022. The US government is giving $8.5 billion to Intel to build up its chip making technology in competition with China. The Gelsinger plan is for manufacturing to be boosted up, so is the effort of the Biden administration. It may take time yet it is the right approach for the US. Pat Gelsinger is leading this effort at Intel. In the past market forces pushed the US out of the chip business to highly subsidized chip companies TMC and SMIC in Taiwan and China.    ...

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Japan has coped with its long period of low growth by increasing the temp workforce. Loss of nontraditional workers jobs was 158,000 between October and mid February and accounted for much of the 220,000 jobs lost in the October to January period, according to the Japanese Labor Ministry. During the years that EU countries liberalized their labor markets allowing the hiring of temporary workers. During the 1990's Spain, Italy, Greece began allowing the hiring of temporary workers and workers on shortterm contracts. Germany allowed temporary workers and loosened labor laws earlier in this decade. By 2007 17% of the workers in the EU countries which share the euro were temporary workers. Many of these are young people or immigrants. But the labor laws in the EU for permanent employees remained the same and the worker protections were in place, including unemployment benefits and severance. This helped bring the EU unemployment rate down to 7.2% in 2007 during the upturn years. Now this whole process is going into reverse with the young and immigrants hit hardest. In Germany it costs 11,927 euros to layoff a permanent employee according to the Cologne Institure of Economic Research, and zero for laying off a shortterm employee. Now as the economy deteriorates the shortterm workers are being laid off first in large numbers. BMW has laid off 5000 shortterm workers. And short term contracts usually last only 4.7 months on average in Germany, about 12% of temp workers in Germany get hired as permanent workers. To get full unemployment benefits the workers have to have worked steadily for at least 1 year in Germany. ...

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Workers ended a 3 month strike at Caterpillar's Joliet, Illinois plant, essentially giving in to reduced healthcare and pension benefits and wage freezes for older workers. Under the deal workers hired before May 2005 receive no hourly pay increase, workers hired after that date get a one time 3% pay increase with future pay increases decided by Caterpillar management. Hourly pay at the plant ranges from $13 to $28. About 25% of the older workers are eligible to retire. A $7.8 million fund to supplement incomes of laid off workers will now be used for retirement bonuses. Caterpillar persuaded workers to ratify the contract by increasing the bonus for ratifying to $3100 per worker from $1000. During the strike Caterpillar continued operations by using managers and temporary workers and using 100 workers who crossed picket lines.

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GE plans to take investment in India from current 2% of sales to 5% of sales in 2010. To do this it will quadruple revenues from India to 8 billion by 2010. GE expects a huge amount of infrastructure spending in developing markets in the next 8 years it estimates this to be about 4 trillion. Separately Indian government estimates are that infrastructure spending will double from $50 billion to $100 billion by 2011 (Indian Planning Commission estimates).