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Ulrich Volz of the German Development Institute says the $250 billion the IMF has- counting the $100 billion Japan has contributed- may not be enough to prevent some countries in Eastern Europe and Asia or Latin America from defaulting. Especially because a lot of debt is coming due and has to be renewed. There may be some sovereign country defaults. Even China and India have a lot of debt coming due. India and China have external debt payments of $260 billion and $2.4 trillion respectively this year. According to ING Wholesale Banking emerging market governments and companies have to repay some $6.8 trillion of debt, bonds, loans and interest payments and trade finance, and this excludes any debt taken on for stimulus. Russia has $600 billion to renew this year. Latin American governments according to Harvard economist Hausmann need to rollover $250 billion in debt. The US and developed countries are soaking up a lot of funds, with the US eexpected to issue $2 trillion in government bonds, and the big developed countries placing another $1 trillion. So there will be severe competition for limited capital. Mr Volz suggests a Global Support Fund to which the developed countries would contribute to help emerging market countries....

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Experts say Chief Justice Roberts somehow found a path through in bridging the ideological divide and avoiding a show of partisanship in an election year. He somehow navigated and found a path through in his vote on the U.S. healthcare law letting it stand. Early on Roberts advocated "judicial modesty and humility" in jurisprudence. He compared the judge's role to that of an umpire in baseball during the 2005 confirmation hearings. The umpire would not pitch or bat, his job would be to call balls and strikes. It was seen as a determmined show of independence at a time when Justice Kennedy was seen as the swing vote. He has also earned political capital to be able to vote independently on other issues before the court instead of becoming embroiled in controversy about the role of the Court in overturning the work of Congress during the early part of the Obama administration.

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Creation of new investment code that would assure host countries of investor intentions and practices for sovereign wealth funds.

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Rich Kramer, CEO of Goodyear since April 2010, says the tiremaker's turnaround strategy was to focus on selling higher technology tires directly to customers at premium prices. About 75% of tires now sold sell at $130 and up. As recently as 2007, 40% of Goodyear's tires were low-end tires selling at retail stores for $60 each. Goodyear has shifted focus from selling to automakers to selling to customers at retail stores. The prior strategy was focussed on covering operating costs and achieving sales volume. Goodyear now sees itself as a consumer products company, in addition to being an auto supplier. Sales were 89.7 million tires in the first half of 2011. A small increase in sales of 2% from the prior period resulted in a 25% increase in revenue to $11 billion, and income of $143 million. Another reason for improvement in sales and profits is better labor relations. This was achieved by investing in new technology and plants, and putting $1 billion into the union health care fund for retired workers. The union agreed to a two tier wage system with more flexible work rules. The new technology introduced by Goodyear includes tires that reduce rolling resistance for commercial trucks and passenger vehicles. Goodyear is working on new technology to increase fuel efficiency. A $1.5 million grant from the Department of Energy funds research for tires with a miniaturized air pump that maintains air pressure. Other research involves tread design that improves fuel efficiency. ...

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David Wessel points to some problems with the Paul Ryan budget proposal. Ryan's plan does not balance the budget till after 2030, and Congress would have to raise the debt ceiling each year till then. The changes to Medicare Ryan proposes would limit how much the government spends, but the savings from this do not come for a decade, as people expected to retire in the next 10 years will still have Medicare. Ryan's proposal shows how deep the cuts will have to be if deficit reduction is done without raising taxes. Pete Domenici and Alice Rivlin who developed a deficit reduction plan, said they were disappointed that the Ryan plan "fails to address the need for new revenue," which they consider crucial for truly tackling deficit reduction. The Obama budget failed to offer a comprehensive deficit reduction plan, leading to openness for new ideas. The health care delivery system in the U.S. needs to be efficient and costs need to come down. Ryan's proposal gives no idea where the efficiencies will come from. Would they come from competition between private insurers? How will escalating healthcare costs be controlled. Another consideration is that even with its problems Medicare is less costly to administer than private insurance. Everything depends on seniors shopping vigorously for the best premiums because risks and costs are borne by seniors, with the idea that this will somehow control escalating medical costs....

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Galston says Hillary Clinton is right to say as she did at Roosevelt Island in her opening campaign speech, that "growth and fairness go together, for lasting prosperity, you can't have one without the other." Economic growth was at 4% for 5 of 8 years of the Clinton presidency, but in the 15 years since the economy has managed 3% only twice in the George Bush presidency, and fallen below 2.5% in the last 5 years. The high growth rate following World War II was a result of the increase in the workforce and productivity. The workforce increased by 2% annually between 1950 and 2000. Since then as female participation peaked and the baby boomers reached retirement age the workforce has increased by 0.7%, and is slowing to 0.5% annual growth for the next decade. Growth in productivity of 1.9% between 1991 and 2007, slowed to 0.4% after 2010. Galston tells the next president to go all out to increase the labor force- adopt family friendly policies similiar to Europe so more women can work, get more immigrants into the labor force, more elderly should be encouraged to work given the better health, reduce the college dropout rate to reduce incarceration and bring more young people into the labor force, get more people who qualify for disability but could work part time into the labor force, and emphasize the importance of increasing the labor force participation rate a policy being followed by the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen....

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The ruling in a 5-4 decision requires the EPA to consider cost when the agency makes environmental rules. It does not remove the regulations on mercury emissions and does not prohibit the EPA from setting rules. A lower court will have to rule on how the case should be handled. Its likely effect is for the EPA to consider the price for industry compliance in setting environmental rules. The majority decision wirtten by Justice Scalia says the EPA "must consider cost- including, most importantly, cost of compliance- before deciding whether regulation is appropriate and necessary." The current EPA environmental rules were set in 2012, and were put into effect in early 2015. During the early part of the process of setting the rules the EPA did not consider cost. But in the later stages the agency estimated costs of compliance for utility sector at $9.6 billion and public health benefits of at least $37 billion. Justice Elena Kagan alluded to this in her dissenting opinion. Some utilities have received an extension on installing scrubbers to remove mercury pollutants, and these plants would now receive more time. Of the 600 power plants the EPA regulates as part of the rule, 450 are coal fired plants. Of these 35% were given a 1 year extension for compliance. About 21 states heavily dependent on coal and power companies brought this case before the court. ...

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Fiat takes full ownership of Chrysler with an agreement reached in Jan. 2014 for the UAW trust fund's 41% stake in Chrysler. Under the terms of the $4.35 billion deal Fiat will pay the UAW retiree health fund $1.75 billion in cash, Chrysler will make a $1.9 billion contribution, and Chrysler will also pay the trust $700 million over 4 annual instalments. Under an agreement shaped by the Obama administration 58.5% stake went to Fiat and the remaining 41.5% to the UAW trust fund. Chrysler repaid government loans early with the success of the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Dodge Ram and Dodge Dart models, and the first quarterly profit in 2011. The $1.7 billion Fiat pays for Chrysler under this agreement bringing the total to $3.8 billion, shows the value of the management skills brought by Sergio Marchionne and persistent effort to turn things around at Chrysler since the 2008 financial crisis led to the bankruptcy of Chrysler. In comparison Daimler Benz paid $36 billion for Chrysler in 1998, and $7.4 billion was paid by private equity firm Cerberus Capital for an 80% stake in 2007. It is also a major achievement of the team of managers put together by Fiat's Sergio Marchionne. Chrysler is now the seventh largest car company close to Honda in size, with 4.5 million in global auto sales, according to OICA. Fiat-Chrysler is now a global company with sales worldwide....

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Soli Ozel, a professor of international relations and political science at Istanbul's Kadir Has University and columnist for Haberturk, Turkish daily newspaper, says the street protests in Turkey resemble the "Green Movement" in Iran of four years ago. Iranian protests were predominantly educated and middle class urbanites, and the same is true in Turkey. The AKP party is likely to continue its control but its legitimacy inside Turkey and in the world is being questioned. The recent elections in Iran resulted in a moderate being elected as Iranian voters rejected the politics of the Ahmadinejad period. Turkey is different in one respect in that it is a democracy with liberal democraic values and the rule of law. He gives credit to the AKP party for making housing, health care and education more accessible to the rural areas of Turkey and broadening its middle class. Voters are likely to reject the authoritarian tendencies of the Erdogan government and its sense that the majority simply prevails without a respect for the views of the opposition and other opinion essential for the functioning of democracy. Economic conditions have hurt the middle class and all segments of society in Iran after international sanctions. In Turkey changing economic conditions after an unsustainable credit boom based economic expansion could also play a part. Ultimately says Ozel this is about the Turkish identity as a modern state based on liberal democratic values....

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David Obey, head of the House Appropriations Committee who wants to see a war surtax so that the burden of the war does not just rest on military families. Says Obey, who came to the House in 1969, the first year Nixon engaged in the Vietnam war- "I am damn tired of a situation in which only military families are asked to pay any price whatsoever for this war." He asked Obama to listen to the archival audiotapes of President Johnson in Bill Moyers PBS documentary on the Vietnam War in which Johnson tells Dick Russell Senator from Goergia-" Well we know this is damn near a fool's errand but we don't have any choice." Obey has no faith in the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan so he does not see any chance for a strategy to succeed in Afghnistan and he says "I didn't come here to be Richard Nixon's congressman, Reagan's congressman, Obama's congressman, I'm here representing the Seventh District of Wisconsin." To know Obey is to know him through the decades standing in Congress, fighting for spending on health, education and social programs, part of the agenda rooted in his Catholic faith, which he says demands that he try "to make this an equal society for everybody." In his spare time Obey plays the harmonica, with his rendition of "Amazing Grace" at a friend's funeral putting "everybody in tears," according to Governor James Doyle of Wisconsin. ...

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Retail sales in Vietnam for the first 2 months went up by 21% from same period in 2008, down from 32% growth the prior year, but still holding up. At its height Vietnam's consumer price index went up by 28% in 2008, now its down to 14.8% in February 2009. This gives a big boost to disposable incomes. As a result Vietnam expects growth of 5% a year, according to the IMF. It was 8.4% in 2007, 6.2% in 2008. Vietnam is less dependent on exports and this has helped sustain growth. The inflation shock acted as abigger brake on GDP growth, and now this is easing. And exports were down by 5.1% for the first 2 months, not the steep decline in countries like Taiwan and S. Korea. The Philippines has 30% of growth dependent on exports compared to 70% for Thailand, and it has a steady flow of remittances from workers overseas employed in stable fields like health care and education. These remittances go into disposable income and are spent quickly so they acted as a stabilizer. Indonesia also has a growing domestic market, and is not as dependent on exports. Domestic consumption in both countries should help them see 4% growth according to government estimates for the Phillippines and Indonesia. See the link to Honda motorcycles to observe how the domestic market is continuing to grow for Honda in Indonesia....

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Remittances to developing countries are an important part of the social safety net in these countries. They are spent quickly so they help support food and housing costs, help reduce the impact of an economic downturn, and leave more money for health and education expenses. Remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean were at about $69 billion for 2007 and 2008. Now these remittances are declining. Mexico's declined by 12% in January 2009, Columbia suffered a16% drop, Brazil a14% decline, Guatemala and El Salvador a 8% decline. For countries like Guatemala remittances at $4.3 billion are ahead of coffee, and sugar, and 10% of the people some 1.35 million live in the USA, And 3.5 million people in Guatel=mala depend on these remittances. Any appreciation of the US dollar cushions the decine in colume of remittances. Ecuador has a dollarized economy and has been hit hard. That is because it has alarge population in SPain, and Spain is one of the hardest hit economies, and the euro has declining versus the dollar. Low skilled professions in which these people work, in construction, manufacturing, hotels and restaurants, are oftent he hardest hit. Migrants are stayingput in these countries even turning doen incentives like those in Spain of lump sum payments to return home, and tend to be resilient, working odd jobs and longer hours and making do with less to tide over abad period....

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WSJ says that administration officials are considering aplan whereby on the first day of bankruptcy the government would announce the setting up of a "new GM" with Chevrolet, Cadillac, and good assets as part of it and a separate "old GM" that would hold the bad assets, retiree and health care obligations, Hummer and Saturn. The "good" GM would have responsibility for $20 billion in government loans. THe old GM could stay in bankruptcy for longer till buyers are found for parts of it or as it is wound down, with proceeds from the sales of assets going to creditors claims. WSJ sources familiar with the developments and the administration's views say that the administration prefers this route, and GM will likely will be forced into filing for bankruptcy protection in mid-May. That would be 45 days into the 60 day period President Obama has given GM to come up with a new plan that will work. The submitted plan was rejected by Obama's team on grounds that the assumptions for sales were too optimistic, none of the concessions from bondholders and the UAW that were needed had been made, the Chevy Volt was not going to pe price competitive, and fuel efficient car production was not a critical part of the plan. The government has asked Fiat to scale back its planned ownership of Chrysler to 20%, as part of an agreement for more government loans....

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How Sonatrach of Algeria is working in joint relationships with Statoil-Hydro of Norway, both national oil companies, who are creating a new pattern in bringing capital and technology resources of national oil companies together to tackle projects throughout the world. Statoil for example, has been invited to work with Gazprom on Shtokman gas field project in the Barents Sea. This alliance has taken may forms including Statol taking a 10% ownership in the Algerian Petroleum Institute and setting up a training program which has already trained 6000 Algerian Sonatrach employees in western health and safety standards. This Institute trains Algerian engineers. As Statoil and Sonatrach look outside for new exploration as their reserves are declining, they are working together in different parts of the world. Sonatrach and Statoil-Hydro launched a successful joint bid for 2 offshore gas deposits in Egypt. And Statoil has given Sonatrach equity in one of its North Sea gas fields and given it capacity at a liquefied natural-gas import terminal in Cove Point, Maryland. Algeria has set goals of having international reserves account for 30% of its production by 2015 by taking exploration tracts in places like Libya. Note that this type of collaboration is increasing. PFC Energy a consulting firm says that were 2 such deals for technical cooperaton and sharing access to resources and markets in 2000, in 2006 there were 16. So expect more of this type of collaboration and joint work....

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China needs to make a serious effort to move away from export based model for growth and fix what is broken about that model which is investment in health care, education, the environment, improving rural incomes by giving farmers ownership of land, directing money to the poor and to rural areas that have suffered during the long three decade boom years. The growth rate is expected by analysts to hit 6% in the fourth quarter. And further declines can be expected as exports get hit hard as export markets in the USA and Europe see large declines in consumer spending. The stimulus package is less than what it appears because it includes things that were already planned expenditures, yet it is a step forward. Investment in railways to modernize the rail network is a good investment. And with proper reallocation to the rural sector this stimulus and approoriate new policies could unwind what the Economist calls the grotesque global distortion that has seen poor Chinese farmers help finance the debt fueled excesses of western consumers in countries like USA, UK, and Ireland. Something the Economist has not emphasized in the boom years, but now that the growth rate could drop to 4-6% there is deep concern what it would do for social stability, for rural incomes, and the disparity that has been built up between urban and rural incomes, both within China for policymakers and the media outside....

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Martin Feldstein renews his call for new policies that channel significant government aid to homeowners under water. He says this is the only way to stem the decline in home prices. Letting the forest fire of foreclosures burn itself out is simply not an option, as it would only damage the economy further.

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Though tens of thousands of workers in the French rail network are protesting in the streets about changes in the labor laws, the atmosphere in the National Assembly where president Macron has an absolute majority is different. In the National Assembly most of the legislators are young, inexperienced and there for the first time after the recent elections. Most owe allegiance to president Macron and his party En Marche. The labor code changes were passed without much discussion and on a thumbs up or down vote.  Legislators from Mr. Macron's party are seen by older surviving legislators from an earlier period in French politics as arrogant and do not consult with older legislators. The entire sociology of the National Assembly is overturned and presents a complete culture shock, says a leader of Macron's party who selected members for seats in parliament. Three fourths of members are here for the first time, 60% in Macron's party En Marche. About one third never held public office before. These members spend a whole week in parliament instead of the few days during the earlier Assembly. Yet for all the work and enthusiasm these members act as more of a rubber stamp for Macron's policies instead of offering healthy discussion so that policies can be modified where needed to better accomplish the goal of changing the French system where it can be improved. The result is a form of government that critics increasingly see as autocratic. For Macron this means the lack of a process of consultation that could improve legislation and increase consensus, creating larger support for the changes to the labor laws and the pension system. ...

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Pravin ordhan who won confidence as head of the tax authority takes over Trevor Manuel's post of Finance Ministera, and Trevor is kept in an important position in strategic planning. THe communist party and unions get the Education and Economic Development ministries, but otherwise Zuma indicates a preference for continuity in South African financial and economic affairs. With one third of potential workers are without jobs according to the government so there is considerable pressure for improving these measures of development.