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Should inflation be set at 2% or 3-4%? This decision affects jobs and zero interest rates hurt what retirees earn on savings.  Krugman says Americans were better off during the period under presidents including Kennedy-LBJ, Reagan right up to 2008 when interest rates were between 5-8%, and inflation of 4% was considered to be acceptable. Consider that about 90% of American retirees have savings of less than $100,000, and 50% have no savings at all after two decades of near zero interest rates. Krugman points out that Fed 2% inflation targeting is a mistake because the research is wrong and inflation of 2% gets you to near zero interest rates a third of the time, not 5% of the time as US Fed research incorrectly shows. Financial crises such as 2009 from lack of regulation of financial institutions and laissez faire policy led to zero interest rates that hurt average Americans.

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Bidenomics and how it works for America- you don't have to have a college degree and two thirds of the workforce doesn't have one, you don't have to move and most people can't move to costly housing locations like California or New York. America can build here at home in chips, aviation and advanced technologies in scale and discovery that it has in its heritage. And you don't have to move when factories can go up in all parts of America, rural areas, small towns, and in neglected factory towns from a different era of the 50's and 60's. This is what Biden is doing with trillions of dollars in spending with the help of some Republicans sharing his vision for American Renewal. Not just talk- just substance, results. And cost of living- inflation cut in half from 2022 to 4%.

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The Bell 212 helicopter that crashed in dense fog over East Azerbaijan due to technical failures leading to death of president Raisi and the foreign minister of Iran, was originally built in 1971 for the Canadian Armed Forces. Later supplied to the US Army and in 1988 manufactured in Quebec, then discontinued in 1998. Iran and other countries in eastern Europe still use Bell 212 helicopters which were widely used for commercial purposes. Iran has to contend with difficulty of getting spare parts from the US and Canada. The only other crash reported for Bell 212 is one in 1986 in North Sea oil facilities in dense fog. Reports say the 50 year old Bell 212 depends on visual flight conditions meaning only what the pilot can see from his seat which would have made it very difficult in the steep mountain slopes of eastern Azerbaijan. 

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In the first round of French elections June 2024 the RN National Rally and Alliance gets 33%. The National Front Populaire gets 28% and the Assemblement of Macron gets 20%, Les Republicains 10%, additional 2% of other Left parties, 2% of Centrist parties. To win in the first round one has to get over 50% of the vote and over 25% of the registered voters. Only about 60 seats were decided in the first round. In the second round on July 7 there will be tactical voting with the NFP dropping out of seats in which the Assemblement and Les Republicains have an edge. The same is likely to happen for the Assemblement and Les Republicains dropping out of races which the NFP could win. Most of urban France is with the Assemblement and the NFP, Les Republicains, rural France and small towns with the RN of Marine Le Pen.

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Paris Olympics organizers want this to be the smallest footprint on climate at 1.58 million metric tons of CO2. This is half that in 2012 London Olympics of 3.4 and 20% less than in Tokyo Olympics of 1.96. No rhetoric, actual facts is the goal even with 13 million spectators from many countries.

It was an opportunity for us to stage this Games in a different way, both for us to prove that the Games can be done differently, but also to leave a legacy,” says Georgina Grenon, Paris 2024’s director of environmental excellence." It is not that difficult to get 50% cut in emissions by using wood or low carbon cement. New construction is a big source of emissions. Paris organizers plan to use existing or temporary infrastructure, and also reuse what is built, and build some facilities in underserved deprived areas to use later for affordable housing. It is a remarkable and commendable effort.

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By large margins voters have favorable opinions of Harris and Walz. For 52% of the WSJ survey Harris has the right temperament to be president, for Trump this was 42%. 40% of voter sample have unfavorable views of Walz compared to 50% for Vance. 82% of the voter sample say they know enough information about Harris to make a firm opinion. Even though media presents it as people not so familiar with Harris. A big difference is seen in views about Project 2025- only 9% have favorable views of Project 2025 that would terminate civil servants, restrict abortion access, and end the Department of Education. 57% have unfavorable views of Project 2025, 53% very unfavorable views.

These are general trends. Harris is changing perceptions on her handling of the economy and cost of living by outlining her plans for specific action on housing, child care and food costs.

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At a time of volatility and anxiety in financial markets Americans put their trust in Vanguard Funds. Vanguard funds took in 40% of the entire cash flow of the mutual fund industry in the first half of 2012, $87.7 billion went to Vanguard excluding money market funds. This was largely because of the index funds which Vanguard originated and which were Bogle's invention. Today Bogle, 83, still speaks up for investors and investing for the long run, on staying away from speculation and protecting U.S. financial markets from speculative behaviours. He says the financial industry has to put investor and client interests first, with no excuses made for behaviour, period, at a time when the financial industry has lost its compass and direction. Bogle heads the research center at Vanguard Funds following disagreements with his hand picked successor Brennan, and leaving the Board in 1999. The current head at Vanguard Funds, CEO McNabb, says Vanguard owes its success to all the foundations set by Bogle. Bogle says strategy follows structure, and the structure he built of investor ownership of Vanguard Funds prevents a situation where owners can siphon off funds, or engage in activities that would hurt investors. Bogle's differences with Brennan came from his efforts to institutionalize other ideas such as investing for the long term, and shunning frequent trading which could happen with the creation of exchange traded funds (ETF's). Bogle has had several heart operations since 1999, and a successful heart transplant. This has not slowed his adocacy efforts on behalf of investors, with 11 books on investing and safeguarding financial markets from excesses of the kind seen in the 2008 financial crisis. The most recent book is "The Clash of Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation" (Wiley & Sons, $29.95). In the book he calls for a grass roots effort by investors to protect America's retirement system, and finances of younger parents with children to send to college, from the damage that is happening with the financial system in acute stage of dysfunction. ...

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Peter Baker talks to experts on American presidents about Trump's 100 days in office. One expert says the presidency has changed Trump more than Trump has changed the presidency. Trump has told reporters recently that the job was harder than he thought, the decisions requiring much more thought and much harder. Described during the campaign as following instincts, impetuous and brushing off briefings, the Trump that has emerged in the early period is a president who surprisingly has been willing to listen to advice from Republican leaders in business and government. He has also changed course where appropriate on trade with Mexico, China, Germany and other countries, and shown decision making ability where appropriate such as over use of chemical weapons in Syria. He has listened to Muilenburg of Boeing on the Export-Import Bank, his Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on NAFTA and Mexico, to Gary Cohn his economic adviser for a careful studied approach on taxes and the economy, as covered here in Lyrarc.  And Trump has built a relationship based on discussions with president Jinping of China, which has helped create a stable climate for world trade and the economy after the ruffled period of the campaign. On NATO and South Korea he has given the lead to his advisers, Gen. Mattis, Tillerson and his vice president Pence. For this to happen president Trump with his exuberant and sometimes volatile personality has shown a capacity for learning and growth over this short period, surprising many. ...

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Seib of the WSJ compares the Reagan election in 1980 with Trump's bid in 2016. He finds the idea of an outsider when the public mood was for change favoring Trump, but says the comparison with Reagan falls short because Reagan had behind him 8 years as governor of the largest state in the country, and a bid for the nomination 4 years earlier. He also had personal positive approval ratings of about 70 percent compared to 27 percent for Trump.  Reagan's first trp after the convention in 1980 was to Alabama to win the support of George Wallace people in the Deep South. His focus was on reuniting all parts of the Republican Party something absent in 2016. Seib's comment about Trump being stronger on the economy is not clear. With the economy recovering, and slowing down as the presidential election approaches amid increasing uncertainty, it is possible that voters would not want to risk abrupt and sudden changes with an untested candidate. Working class voters could still see some of their concerns for change addressed by the Bernie Sanders part of the Democratic platform with help in college tution, addressing wage concerns, and opposing export of jobs, when Trump's program gives few specifics. Another difference between Reagan and Trump is that Reagan had put together an economic team under Shultz which was able to win credibility with an actual plan to implement in the first 100 days. ...

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The EU summit under the presidency of Germany completes its task for setting up the European Recovery Fund and providing nonrepayable aid to countries hardest hit by the pandemic that would otherwise have to spiral their already high debt levels to unsustainable levels or provide little assistance to their suffering public. These countries include Italy, Spain, Greece mostly in southern Europe. Also needing aid are eastern European countries Hungary and Poland. For the first time the European Union is jointly taking on this debt of nonrepayable aid to member states most in need. This is a historic step. The Dutch prime minister, almost ruined the solidarity of Europe with his continual effort to cut the amount of funds and place conditions. The Dutch have favored austerity in Europe but at what cost and at what does it say about the Dutch in Europe. Reports show the Netherlands have gained back billions of dollars that would have gone in taxes to the governments of France, Spain and Italy by setting up tax haven. The Netherlands population 17 million, Sweden population 10 million, Denmark population 7 million, together make up less than half the population of any one of the major countries of Europe, Spain and Portugal, France, Germany, Italy. The combined population of about 350 million people in southern, eastern, and western Europe was arrayed against these 34 million northern countries in the long negotiations, that show solidarity but are also a sign of the changes in Europe as these countries in northern Europe were always guided by their own personal or country interest. Rutte fought hard because of elections he faces a second time against the far right wing parties, for a second time since the 2017 election. It could not get more personal than that. Even Britain if it was still in the European Union is likely under Boris Johnson to have reversed policies of Cameron to support solidarity in Europe and aid for recovery, considering how the government has tackled the pandemic in Britain. Setting conditions would only go part of the way is the reality today. The bigger part of preventing mismanaging of funds comes from the individual experience and hardship of people in southern European nations of Italy, Greece, Spain and other countries after the missteps in the eurozone finances in the last two decades. This provides the necessary dose of internal financial discipline. Not acting quickly in solidarity today would have been a serious mistake for Europe. Still Mr. Rutte and the Dutch have cut the European Recovery Fund's nonrepayable aid by 110 billion euros from the initail target set by Macron and Merkel of 500 billion euros. The agreed target now is $390 billion euros. ...

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Biden has put forward a new initiative to strengthen democracy by getting increased commitments to key features for democratic processes in the world. The idea is not to limit partnerships with other countries says Anthony Blinken, Mr. Biden's main adviser and secretary of state. This means India a key partner in both democracy and the Indo-Pacific can for defending its thousands of miles of border in the high Himalayas with enroachment of China into border areas such as Tibet, maintain its good legacy relationships with Russia as happened in last weeks Modi-Putin meeting.  The idea says Blinken is- "The US does not want to limit your partnerships with other countries. We want to make your partnerships with us even stronger." This means the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, can maintain economic and development related ties with China which contribute to their economy, and build stronger relationships of culture and democratic processes with the US, India, European Union and Japan. For this reason the White House has emphasized that this is not about the US giving stamp of approval or disapproval of which country is a democracy and which is not. Too much of that happened under previous governments including Reagan, Carter, Bush, Obama.  The situation of Turkey relates to independence of judiciary and the unwillingness to take another look at problems. There is also the issue of technology is to be used so that citizens are protected from undue surveillance. Mistakes can be made but judiciary acts as an independent branch under the arrangements of checks and balances in American, British and now European frameworks of democracy built over centuries of struggle between monarchies and the people dating back to the Magna Carta in Britain. Neglect of workers and families also is an issue for democracies as for instance the effort now taking place in Germany under Scholz to "respect" workers and families. Lack of this led to the movements in US and European democracies giving room to vent that could ultimately lead to subverting democracies in the homeplace of democracies in the US or Britain. Why such a large gathering of 100 countries? Biden understands that the processes of democracy are always being improved and are a work for each new generation. For this reason there is no perfect scorecard- an ever renewing effort to make the process work in the best interests of the people of the country one generation at a time, to improve the quality of life and do this by preserving the right of peoples to choose their governments.  Why exclude China and Russia, till recently China had a consultative arrangement to run the country and Russia has elections? On this question the response of the Biden administration is that countries commit to the process and back initiatives to "counter authoritarianism. combat corruption, and promote respect for human rights."   Pakistan because it struggles with a long legacy of shortfall in the area of education after the collapse of Mughal rule that was seen under the British, and the general poverty of the Indian subcontinent that is striving to preserve the practice of elections, judiciary, and other democratic processes that were introduced in the Punjab and Sind provinces, and elsewhere since 1900. This is true for much of Africa, and also in parts of India, where aspirations of the people are for democratic process but faced with difficulties, corruption and poverty. In India the efforts of Naoroji, Gokhale, Gandhi, Nehru and Rajagopachari, Govind Pant, almost all leaders of the period since the 1850's, and able well meaning administrators since Lord Mayo in 1868 were to let democratic processes gradually find deep roots. Biden see aspirational in the face of difficulties as acceptable, even truly remarkable, with a willingness to learn from other countries to strengthen its own processes for democracy. It is no longer an Anglo-Saxon model alone as Germany and Europe are part of this process to be renewed by each generation. So are India and Japan. India after a century of elections since 1900 gradually expanding voters from one million to 5 million in the 1930's and to 900 million in 2019, with independent judiciary in a system of checks and balances as in the US.    ...

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During the Greek debt crisis in 2011 the ECB bought Greek bonds at a discount to face value to support the price of Greek bonds. It did so under the agreement that the bonds would be worth the full amount. Now as part of the negotiations between Greece and private bondholders (mostly French and German banks) about how much losses private bondholders will take- to make Greek debt serviceable as its economy shrinks and tax revenues decline- the ECB says it will take $11 billion in losses on these bonds as its contribution. The ECB will do this on the condition that Greece comes up with an agreement with private bondholders that makes debt serviceable. This could mean increasing private bondholder losses to 70%. from 50%. The central banks of EU countries hold $12 billion of Greek bonds. The ECB says this will not apply to these bonds. Negotiations are also underway between the EU and Greece for a 20% reduction in Greece's minimum wage and an additional 3 billion euros in government spending cuts, and pension cuts for retirees. The EU is asking for a written committment from the Greek government and from Antonio Samaras of the New Democracy party to the austerity program, as the measures are highly unpopular in Greece and are leading to continued street protests in Athens. ...

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Google's share of the online ad market falls below 50% for the first time. Changes are made to management. The US federal government seeks a breakup of Google because of its business practices. Major law suits are pending for the US Justice Department investigating Google business practices.

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Without 50% turnout most Italian referendums fail. Italy's referendum on citizenship rules in June 2025 calls for loosening citizenship rules at a time when most of the EU and the US is going in the opposite direction. Italian government led by Meloni asks voters to not turnout.

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  As policies moderate, and policy action delivers results such as stopping the war on Ukraine, rebuilding the US Navy, and trade that brings back jobs, fentanyl deaths near zero with CMC (Canada, Mexico and China) forced to stop fentanyl flows, the small slippage in DJT support from federal workers in Republican districts and losses to business from wide deportation could reverse. DJT's first 100 days with strong action from the start, given the 2 year window before a possible Democrat takeover of the House and letting out the frustration on border policies of the Biden administration, are taking the Nation by surprise. Immigration policy on illegal migration is supported generally in the US except where it reduces customers to small businesses for fear of deportation such as occupational therapy.  Government employees who voted for DJT are uncertain about their jobs and are a group that is taken aback by the speed and action on cutting the government federal bureaucracy of 2 million workers. Many federal workers are spread out in the 51 states and many are in Republican or Republican leaning districts. With some slippage DJT approval is now at 47%, and slightly higher disapproval at 51%. As a result these two groups are moving away from supporting DJT in the first 100 days. Some who still support him outside these two groups are expressing disapproval of action coming this early and forcefully, yet support the overall policy agenda on immigration and cutting spending. There is also a small yet vocal group that supported RFK Jr. and this group remains energized by his promise to take action on health. Others who wanted strong action on immigration to reverse errors of Biden policies for illegal migrant entry and dispersal across America remain committed to DJT policy.  ...

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Median paycheck at Amazon is $28,000 compared to $50,000 at IBM, and much more at Google. Most of the half million people at Amazon work at fulfillment centres and logistics centres and make much less than computer software coders. The median pay works out to be about $14 per hour- the kind of pay for warehouse workers. Even though software is at the core of what it does Amazon is a retailer and is shown as such on the S&P 500. Logistics engineers make $50,000 in average pay at Amazon, and software development engineers make $107,000.

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Prof. Sonalde Desai questions the lack of fresh thinking on addressing inequalities in India by sticking to reservations policy initiated in 1950 before modernization of the economy. In today's economy education is a critical component for upward mobility and the ability to read at higher level is critical. In India the forward castes do better in class 1 reading for 8-11 year olds with about 70% passing, for scheduled castes this drops to below 50%. Prof. Desai argues that addressing problems at the elementary school level is needed to create a level field for opportunities throughout society.

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The EU negotiator Mr. Barnier makes a concession on the Irish backstop which was already previously rejected by prime minister May. May says Mr. Corbyn of the Labour Party, that he was not really interested in finding a solution, and has given only one hour for talks in five weeks. The Irish prime minister Varadkar says May has not offered any solutions for Brexit. May says she will give parliament the chance to vote  for an extension of the March 29 date under Article 50 or decide if it wants a no-deal Brexit.

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The extensive marketing push and viewer enthusiasm for "Star Wars- The Force Awakens," movie in Dec 2015 as it is released in theatres acros the U.S. It is expected to beat "Avatar," which made about $3.1 billion worldwide in 2009, as the best selling movie in history. In its first week it is breaking records, beating "The Hobbit- An Unexpected Journey" for ticket sales in a December release. Hobbit movie made $85 million in Dec. 2012. "The Force Awakens" had ticket pre-sales of $100 million. This is the first Star Wars movie in a decade.

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Ron Wyden, Democratic Senator from Oregon, on maintaining competitive choice for 200 million Americans who have to buy insurance outside the Exchange proposed in many of the bills being put forward in the U.S. Congress. This lack of choice between seriously competitive plans will leave the situation in the same way that it is today, with little hope for controlling runaway costs and doom health care reform. The key to controlling costs says Wyden is introducing choice and competition. Wyden will introduce this plan as an amendment called Free Choice to legislation being debated in Congress.

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Consumer electronics from the large flat panel tv which consumes more electricity than arefrigerator to other consumer electronics products, take up 15% of household electricity demand. But there are no standards for them that will reduce consumption. These standards were set up for refrigerators and have reduced consumptioon by 45% between 1990 when the standards were set till today. Washers have reduced consumption by 70%. The demand from these gadets will triple over the next 2 decades says the Intenational Energy Agency, making greenhouse gas emissions reduction more difficult. To satisfy growing demand 560 coal fired plants will be needed.

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Yale's Robert Shiller, founder of the of the Shiller-Case survey, says that he does not see a turning point in the housing market at this time, based on the 5000 mailed questionnaires he sends out each year. He says this is not visible and hard to conclude from the responses. He also describes the bubble thinking and behaviours he sees from the responses, especially how people extrapolate into the long term the short term gains being made. Nowhere in these responses does he see the term bubble being used by respondents, as if it never existed.

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The Indian government's restrictions on single brand retail store ownership by foreign companies has long been an impediment for companies like IKEA. The decision by the Indian government in 2012 to allow 100% ownership removes this impediment. However other restrictions are seen as onerous- one requirement is for 30% of sourcing to be done in India. IKEA management points out that the sourcing from small and midsize enterprises may be difficult. By contrast IKEA has increased local sourcing in China from 30 to 65% just to meet price competition fom local competitors, according to Jen Hansegard, head of the China operations.