LyrArc Article Gist
Arizona remains a state where the Republican and Democratic parties are very close. As Senator Krysten Sinema a Democrat, supported the Republican filibuster that required 60 votes for major legislation and thwarted some of president Biden's legislation to help workers and families in the US. Having alienated some Democrats she is now running for the Senate as an Independent. Her likely opponent from the Republican party is Kari Lake. Arizona is split three ways evenly for Republicans, Independents and Democrats. The question for Sinema says a Republican strategist is whether there are enough independents and soft Republicans who will vote for Sinema. Rep. Ruben Gallego is running for Democrats, Kari Lake for Republicans. Another question is whether Kari Lake's association with Mr. Trump could hurt Republicans in Arizona. Synema faces a difficult three way race as Democrats see her flagging support on key initiatives of the president as a serious problem.

LyrArc Article Gist
"No amount of misrepresentation or statistical contortion can conceal or blur or smear that record. Neither the attacks of unscrupulous enemies nor the exaggerations of over-zealous friends will serve to mislead the American people." FDR said this  on October 31, 1936, it could also be president Biden.The current Media and Hollywood efforts to choose presidential candidates of their choice runs contrary to "We the People," contrary to views of ordinary Americans, of voters, workers and families. President Kennedy was told he should not take the nomination because he was too young. Kennedys' response was that it was he not Humphrey that went to state after state and won the votes in the primaries, no one else made the effort to run in the primaries in each state. President Biden has the support of 14 million in the primaries. George Chidi from Atlanta reports that undecided voters number about 1 million in the swing states and most are much older than the average. Most may feel insulted by talk about age when they are in the same category.  A 102 years old Lockheed engineer in Atlanta suburbs says he is a Republican but will not vote for Trump. There is also the women's vote in Georgia and Atlanta suburbs with abortion ban as the issue as it was in Kentucky and Kansas. How many vote will also be a factor, making energizing the base a key factor. The idea that one party is doing better than the other is refuted clearly by some of the people in Georgia shown here, and the age factor does not get the prominence the Media have given it, as long as the government is functioning well. Media has failed to look at the policy details of each candidate in a colossal failure that calls for alternatives. Older voters who are the major part of the 1 million or so voters in swing states that are undecided also say that the fact is that with both the candidates- as it is with administrations that are led by young presidents seen as too young to lead (JFK) the opposite of today- many of the decisions are made with an experienced group of advisers around the president. Many if not all also realize that the vast experience of an older president is also an asset. Much of Biden's legislation for chips science, infrastructure, the Inflation Reduction Act have not happened in Germany, France or the UK, and would not have happened in the US without the ability of president Biden to get the bipartisan support from being the one with the most experience in Congress in a long time. The result is the hundreds of thousands of jobs created each month and a growing economy, inflation down from 9 to 3% as the first step to further cost of living action to support ordinary workers and families. Only LBJ comes close and he signed landmark legislation for Medicare and Medicaid, and for civil rights into law 60 years back. By removing America from the wars that Reagan and Bush started and Obama and Trump failed to end president Biden has given the US an opportunity to inspire and lead the free world in a way that has not happened in many decades and build a growing economy, a bright future for the Nation. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bob King , an electrician with alaw degree, who has worked since 1970 at Ford Motor, will be the next head of the United Automobile Workers

LyrArc Article Gist
Some of the flaws in China's development model are shown by the Economist. Over half of the economy is dominatd by state run enterprises. And the remainder is also heavily influenced by local government and officials from the government. Financing goes through state run banks which lend to state run enterprises, and only a small fraction of lending goes to small businesses. These busineses are not actively looking to support innovation and new products. The other weakness that the Economist correctly points out, is that by contrast even in the 1960's, about 10 years into Japan's postwar development, quality control was a big thing with companies in Japan. The Deming Prize was seen as the most prestigious prize for Japanese companies, and Japanese engineers tried to learn everything they could about quality control to make Made in Japan mean high quality. They succeeded by the 1980's in making this happen, with leading global brands like Sony, Matsushita, Panasonic, Toyota, Honda, Canon and a host of other brands. If 1980 in China, is where Japan was in 1950, now about 30 years later there is nothing like what was seen happen in Japan in the area of quality and global brands. The area in which the freewheeling culture of capitalism has been most successful is the economic zone, a 2 hour drive between Guanghou and Shenzen. It manufactures mostly low tech goods like toys and apparel and shoes, and these manufacturing facilities are of low quality, with poor conditions for labor. With the efforts by the government to move to higher value added and high tech products these businesses came under pressure by mid 2007, with new labor laws, more enforcement, pollution control laws and resulting higher costs. As they felt the impact by mid 2008 from the higher costs, some businesses disappeared. Then another and even bigger problem hit these businesses. The global economic crisis, the shortage of credit in western countries to sustain import orders, and the rapid fall off of demand from highly indebted consumers in the USA, has led to closure of most of these businesses. The rapidity with which many of these businesses closed is amazing, as row after row of these buildings are now empty in the Guangzhou-Shenzen area. Another development is happening in Taiwanese firms like Hon Hai, that with little disclosure, make IPods, laptops, PC's, and other electronic products in the same area. At one point this firm employed 250,000 people in a industrial city sized factory campus. Now it is shifting production to places like Vietnam. Now Taiwanese reports say that the workforce of Hon Hai in Shenzen area will drop to 100,000. Other Taiwanese firms are also shifting production to other countries. Climate change and the heavily polluting industries that are widespread in China is one of the other flaws in the Chinese development model. Another is the lack of energy efficiency in these industries. With all these changes exposing the deeper flaws in the model China has used for development for the last 30 years, this a time for change in the way economic development takes place in China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Consultants Wood Mackenzie say it will take about 3 years for Libya to get back to normal oil export levels of 1.5- 1.8 million barrels a day. It will take time to rebuild damaged oil refineries after the war against the Gaddafi regime.

LyrArc Article Gist
With UAW contracts expected to expire Sept 15, it is not clear whether the UAW will agree to a large trust that will adminster health benefits for workers. This trust would handle all automakers health liabilities and would get funding from the automakers.

LyrArc Article Gist
David Brooks says there is great value in policies of moderation especially at a time time like this. It is necessary to combine ideas from the left and the right that make sense to arrive at a moderate position that advances the interests of society. There is no one right answer, and this requires listening to others and a willingness to be open to new ideas. A particular situation at a particular time may require an adjustment. Moderation strives for wisdom that will give good results- requiring listening and humility. It means bringing together different views, adapting to the circumstances, and coming up with solutions that will stand the test of time.

LyrArc Article Gist
Four members of Wells Fargo bank's board of directors are being replaced as part of the response by the bank in a settlement with the Federal Reserve. For the first time the Federal Reserve is taking action on corporate boards to send a message that banks boards of directors will be held responsible for poor governance and failing in responsibilities to the customers of the bank. This was one of the last steps taken by Janet Yellen as she leaves office as Fed chairwoman.

LyrArc Article Gist
Travelers landing at Schipol airport in Amsterdam book their flights at the airport to fly right back to the U.S. after president Trump announces a ban on flights from 26 European countries. President Trump did not wait to coordinate with other European countries. Only Britain and Ireland flights are allowed at this time. The ban restricts European travelers from 26 countries for 30 days beginning March 13 at 11.59 pm. U.S. citizens coming from these 26 countries will be required to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in the U.S.

LyrArc Article Gist
About 9% of the total taxes in Texas and Louisiana for fiscal 2013 are from severance taxes for extraction of oil and gas, according to Nelson Rockefeller Institute of Government. For Alaska this is 78% and for N. Dakota 46%. A prolonged oil slump will reduce growth in the oil producing states including Wyoming and Oklahoma. Rainy day funds in N. Dakota and Texas will help meet spending for the next 2 years.

LyrArc Article Gist
Gerlad Seib points out that one should look less at what president Trump accomplished in the first 100 days and more at how he operated and learned during this initial period. This is certainly true because much of what happened in the first 100 days contradicts some of the tone that Trump setup during the campaign. When it comes to governing Trump has made an effort to learn and adapt and show resilience in the face of early setbacks on the travel ban and the health care bill, the Flynn episode. After this early period Trump took on a more disciplined approach, gave more room to and listened to more respected advisors- Tillerson on foreign affairs in shaping policy with Russia leading to Tillerson's presence at Lucca massacre memorial in Italy sending a clear signal about U.S. policies in line with its role in the past century in world affairs, Gary Cohn and Ross on economic policy and seeking Cohn's advice on tax plan, Ross's on NAFTA negotiations with Mexico. As a result the NAFTA fears were calmed down with statements by Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, that the goal was a win-win relationship with Mexico. Trump worked with his party in Congress to have the Supreme Court nomination of Gorsuch approved. Meetings with Merkel of Germany and Jinping of China were carefully planned and new relationships established as Seib points out, without ruffling trade relations. The appointment of Robert Lighthizer, as Trade Representative, also shows that efforts to give the U.S. a more level playing field in trade will be resolutely pursued in the win-win context. Lyrarc has profiled Lighthizer earlier in this decade after his op-eds in the media as he correctly anticipated the changing public mood on the need for fairness in trade relations. On relations with China and South Korea, Jim Mattis has taken the lead, and Pence's visit to South Korea also show deftness in handling what is one of the most difficult issues in foreign affairs. Mattis and Tillerson also have helped reinforce the Republican party policies on NATO and Europe, with the visit of NATO secretary general Stoltenberg to the White House. In the end it is how much you can learn in the first year, how much you listen, and the courage to act in difficult situations, the willingness to act contrary to one's instincts and self interest where necessary, that matters. This is especially true in an environment where as Seib points out the Democratic Party stands opposed to the Trump administration following a bitter election campaign.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US president Biden is proposing a Medicare Solvency Support plan that will increase funding to the Medicare hospital-insurance trust fund. Biden stated in the State of Union message last week that Republicans under former candidate Trump would cut Medicare for the elderly in America.

LyrArc Article Gist
As a Sunday school teacher Jimmy Carter brought evangelical Christians in the South into the political process. And it encouraged the emergence of other southerners such as Bill Clinton of Arkansas from small towns into Democratic politics. In doing so it distanced the Democratic party from it's roots as a party of the working man, of the working class and labor, of farmers and small business owners, that it had been from 1902 with TR taking up this stance and followed by FDR, Truman, Kennedy-Johnson. Leading to the situation today after Clinton brought China into the WTO and changed world trade, exchanging places with China as a leader in manufacturing, integrating Silicon Valley into the Democratic party under Obama and distancing from working class concerns. Gerald Seib in his tribute to Cater says in WSJ that he was a good man who was president at a bad time. The problems of inflation and cost of living at 10.4% and mortgage rates at 13%, oil prices with the Iran crisis under Carter were problems that were a result of actions taken by the US in the period going back to the 1950's for Iran and embargoes on oil from lack of conservation in oil use in the US. What Carter accomplished is to open the door to new faces out of nowhere- a small town in Georgia was not a place where a presidential hopeful cold be found in previous eras. Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Adams, TR, Wilson, Harding, Hoover, FDR were all from well known families in the East Coast and Northeast. Only Abraham Lincoln emerged from a small town in Illinois. It opened the door for other southerners Clinton from Arkansas and new faces Reagan and Trump.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This piece in Der Spiegel points out that Brexit may be an opportunity if European leaders recognize that there can be different levels of unity, and that different countries in the EU can advance at their own pace with Germany and France providing a core group. There is no longer the need for continual enlargement of the European Union as has happened before. It also offers a time to take some deep breaths and reflect on the progress so far and where it has come short, what to do about it, such as the bureaucracy that has grown in Brussels, the different views on immigration, and public sentiment. Actually the whole progress towards the European Community, and then the European Union has evolved over time. In the immediate postwar years, after one setback Adenauer once said during the difficult negotiations in 1951-52 between France and Germany to set up the European Coal and Steel Community, predecessor of the European Community and the European Union- "arme Europa, arme Europa," (poor Europe, poor Europe). The Dutch and Belgian delegates had strong differences for the headquarters for the ECSC- Turin was rejected, Liege and Brussels were proposed, until Monnet was made head of the High Authority of the European Coal and Steel Community with headquarters in Luxembourg. Monnet himself considered stepping down a couple of times because of differences, and the Editor of Le Monde described Monnet's plans for European integration as "a leap in the dark." This was the first of many difficult steps in the evolution of the European Union. Nationalist feeling was nothing new, as the Gaullists opposed Monnet's drive for European unity when it differed from their ideas. Still Monnet persevered and progress took place every ten years as it must now.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
British prime minister Theresa May makes a bid for working class votes in the 2017 election, just as the Labor party under Jeremy Corbyn announces its own manifesto seeking working class votes. May has proposed increasing the minimum wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020, and increased funding for the National Health Service by 8 billion pounds over 5 years. Corporate taxes will be reduced from 19 to 17% compared to Labor Party raising it to 26% under Corbyn's manifesto. Some of the Labor Party's supporters in the north of Britain are leaving the party because of dissatisfaction with Labor's leadership.

LyrArc Article Gist
iCET Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies is a new program that was agreed to between president Biden and prime minister Modi at the Quad Summit in May 2022. It has the focus of building the US relationship with India for advanced and emerging technologies in the competition with China, and also as a way to expand India's role in the US and EU supply chain arrangement. Its first inaugural dialogue happened this week between Jake Sullivan NSA for the US and Ajit Doval NSA for India. The goals of iCET are To seek to build supply chains which increase co-production and co-development between the countries  To increase linkages between the countries startup ecosystems To broaden defense innovation and technology cooperation To build resilient semiconductor supply chains  Space cooperation STEM talent Next generation 5G and 6G telecommunications cooperation The US will speed up approval of GE Engines making of engines in India for light combat aircraft manufactured in India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Stephen Bosworth was appointed by Hillary Clinton as U.S. Representative for North Korea Policy. He is one of America's best diplomats who served in several postings overseas before becoming Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts. Prof. Drezner points to the work done by Bosworth in keeping dialogue with North Korea alive, till a solution can be found. He also cites Chinese analysts who say pressuring China comes from a worn playbook, that China would not agree to reunification on the Korean peninsula, to bring U.S. influence right up to its borders. South Koreans have been wary of reunification because of the decade long experience of integrating East Germany. As a result new solutions need to be found and the valuable work of diplomats like Bosworth is badly needed to keep dialogue alive for a solution to be found.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. is moving quickly to gain access to an effective vaccine by September or October 2020. It is doing this by providing the money for companies to conduct trials and ramp up manufacturing in a big way. The U.S. government has agreed to give Astra Zeneca upto $1.2 billion to secure supply of a Oxford University developed vaccine which could be ready by October. Astra Zeneca has agreed to make the vaccine under a licensing deal with Oxford University's Jenner Institute and promised it will not make a profit on this. U.S. has also given $483 million to Moderna in Cambridge, Massachusetts, for making the vaccine. Both Oxford and Moderna are testing the vaccine on humans. Oxford uses a tested older technology, Moderna a new technology. UK has given Astra Zeneca $79 million to secure 100 million doses of the vaccine, with 30 million ready by September. Oxford is also in negotiations with Gavi the international vaccine alliance, and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations on further deals to boost production. Oxford began a 1100 person study in April, and is  doing a 5000 person trial in late May.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
On of the most important issues that has received little attention in the 2024 campaign is climate change. Decisions made in 2024-2025 will have major repercussions for the next decade.

LyrArc Article Gist
GM shares dropped by 31% October 8, 2008 to a postwar low. And Jeff Schuster head of auto forecasting at JD Power says the global market in 2009 may experience an outright collapse. The slowdown will extend to Europe, China, india and Brazil. Previously JD Power estimated sales at 14 million for 2009 now it thinks it will be more like 13.2 million in 2009 and this may come up for revision as the economic downturn deepens with higher unemployment, loss in savings, and collapsing consumption. With access to financing drying up, and sales collapsing GM is rnning low on funds to run day to day operations and is expected to be acutely short by the end of 2009. Ford faces a similar situation. One forecast by Citigroup global markets in the link in Detroit News October 9 points to only abot $1 billion remaining by the end of 2009 and even with asset sales generating some $5 billion being thin ice for GM.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Paris based think tank International Council for Security and Development says in a report that the Taliban now have apermanent presence in 72% of the contry and are now encircling the capital Kabul, and attacking 4 roads leading to the capital. This will certainly make things difficult for Obama as he takes office in January as the economic crisis will take a lot of attention while at the same time additional troops and military support will come into an Afghanistan that is mostly in the hands of the Taliban and with Kabul region in danger.

LyrArc Article Gist
The authors, Becker, Davis and Murphy, are from the University of Chicago. They point out that the uncertainty created by the Obama administration's programs including healthcare and social investments in education, energy conservation, and the desire to reduce carbon emissions, all tend to slow business expansion and investments to create jobs by putting additional costs on business. The expanding federal deficit and national debt also create additional uncertainty. Their point is that it was a mistake to start making major changes to transform the U.S. economy at this time, and that it would have been wiser to do these changes after the economy had recovered completely from the crisis. All efforts they say should have been concentrated on establishing conditions for a strong recovery. When combined with the lack of regulatory reforms to fix problems left behind from the crisis, and other failures, serious questions arise about how things will turn out in coming years. See Krugman- The Feeling of 1937, where Krugman takes this up from another angle, again with concerns about the future....

LyrArc Article Gist
Bill Marriott tells Adam Bryant about an encounter with Eisenhower at his father's family farm in Virginia in 1954. Eisenhower asked the young Bill about whether his dad, Eisenhower and the Secretary of Agriculture should go outdoors hunting quail on a stormy wintry morning- "What do you think we should do?"

LyrArc Article Gist
A drought in northern China is shaping up to be the longest since 1951, matching one in the winter of 1970-71. This will affect world food prices as adverse weather has also affected Russia, Australia and Argentina, which are major food producers. China has large reserves of grain and has the foreign exchage reserves to import wheat. China's wheat imports rose to 1.2 million tons in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services. This compares with global output of 682 million metric tons of wheat in 2009, as estimated by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Because China accounts for one sixth of global wheat production, this will put pressure on wheat prices. The Chinese government has cushioned price rises by asking provinces and cities to raise the minimum wage, which went up by 18% a year in Guangdong province.