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This WSJ report looks at the state of manufacturing in India in 2023. Foreign companies in renewable energy from Denmark, Apple Computer, and local companies such as Ola in electric scooters, are building factories and expanding manufacturing capacity in Sriperumbudur and other special economic zones in Tamilandu state of India. BMW and Nissan are also located in the state. It comes as friendshoring from the US is encouraging foreign companies to invest in India. There is a definite acceleration in the growth of electronics and machinery exports under the Indian government's Make in India plan. This report shows that India is in a learning curve in developing its manufacturing base. Not shown here are how the goals and execution of a sound overall plan is envisioned by the government. The Gati Shakti plan put forward by Mr. Modi is intended to bring together all agencies of the government to work together seamlessly to provided an overall execution of infrastructure development for logistics, airports, fast rail, roads and bridges, and modern housing. It is a National Master Plan for Multi Modal Connectivity that brings together 16 ministries for building state of the art infrastructure. The national plann ing agency NITI Aayog says it recognizes the multiplier effects plus spillover effects of infrastructure development for  Indian manufacturing, and understands how the US, Japan and China accomplished this going back to the New Deal in the US in the 1930's. It can also pioneer in new ways learning from the experience of these countries. This will bring results in demonstrating how India is learning and developing its own model of the best way to build excellent infrastructure, and do this with renewable energy, and environment inclusive efforts.    ...

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German banks hold $28 billion euros or $37 billion in Greek bonds according to Barclays Capital using IMF data. This debt is now rated as junk by Standard and Poor's since last week. Just one bank, Hypo Real Estate, now owned by the German government after a bailout has $10.5 billion of Greek bonds. This gives a new twist to what is happening in Greece, with Germany involved through the support its own banks would need if Greece defaulted and these bonds become worthless. Total debt holdings of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain for example at Hypo Real Estate is $52 billion. France is also heavily involved through its banks. It has $67 billion in holdings, including $9 billion held by the Bank of France, according to Barclays. According to BIS data American banks hold $16.6 billion in Greek debt. Even the healthy large Spanish banks like Santander have their problems, with Santander having $64 billion of assets in Portugal, according to analysts at Nomura in London. In Spain most of the bad debt problems are concentrated in the midsize banks, but if Portugal were to take a hit then the large banks would be affected adversely....

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In 1980 Jeb Bush 27, was looking for a place where he could make a fresh start away from the Bush name in Washington and Texas. His father was making a run for president that year. Miami with its bustling Cuban American community seemed a perfect place for Bush with his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican born wife Columba. The co-chairman of the Bush campaign in Florida was a Cuban American, Armando Codina. He set up Bush Realty, making Jeb Bush a partner with a 40% stake in the firm. In this period 1980-1992, Bush's gross income averaged 107,000 for the 6 years before the elder Bush was elected president to $1.6 million in 1990 half way during the elder Bush's term as president, according to a WSJ analysis of tax returns. This was also a period when Jeb Bush while engaging in business deals, was also running for office- first as Commerce secretary for 2 years in 1987, making a unsuccessful run for governor in 1994, and a successful run in 1998, 2002. He helped boost the Republican party in the Miami area, bringing together Republicans and the Cuban American exile community, during the anti-communist mood of the Reagan period. As Miami-Dade county Republican party chairman he helped boost voter rolls for the party, which had a 2 to 1 Democratic party advantage in earlier years. Stewart and Reinhard document the situations in which the Bush connections at the White House helped Jeb Bush in his real estate business....

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Eric Holder Jr, the Attorney General of USA, told the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commisssion that the F.B.I. was investigating more than 2800 mortgage fraud cases. Of these 2800 cases, 1842 are classified as major cases, involving losses of more than $1 million. In addition federal charges are pending against 826 defendents. Lanny Breuer, assistant attorney general of the Justice Department's criminal division stated that the fraud cases included loan origination schemes, property flipping, foreclosure rescue schemes and loan modifications. Those accused of wrongdoing include real estate brokers, appraisers and bank insiders and "plain old fraudsters who gravitated to mortgage fraud." Sheila Bair in her opening remarks to the Financial Inquiry Commission, led by California state Treasurer Angelides, stated that it was necessary to find a way to breakup large banks without using the option of government support. Bair pointed out that the basic assumptions about financial supervision, credit availability and market discipline that were considered acceptable in the regulatory reform scheme for decades are now appearing seriously flawed. A whole reassessment was needed to change the existing mechanisms and methods. And she emphasized the serious distortions and imbalances in our national policies which moved away from savings to consumption, away from investment in our industrial base and public infrastructure toward housing, and away from real sectors of the economy towards the financial sector. Ms. Schapiro who heads the S.E.C. called for a stable , adequate funding to support the commission's work....

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MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

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Chinese government and China's Securities Regulatory Commission issues a scathing criticism of pwc accounting firm's audits of Evergrande real estate company. Evergrande went into bankruptcy on a huge scale and pwc's audits failed to disclose what was happening at the company when apartments that were not built or not completed were considered as revenue. This disguised the problems at the company  leading to huge losses and affecting the entire Chinese economy that depended too much on construction for GDP growth.

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Caixabank based in Barcelona, Spain's third largest bank, says it has set aside 960 million euros as provision for expected real estate loan losses in 2012, up from 373 million euros in 2011. This was required under new rules set by the Spanish government. Most of the earnings in this quarter were set aside as provisioning for losses, with net profit down to 48 million euros from 300 million euros the prior year quarter.

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Is the market in S. Korea reflecting the bursting of the housing bubble in the USA, or is it simply a result of the Roh government's new taxes and rules for real estate such as the capital gains taxes of a shigh as 60% and the restriction on loan size so that monthly payments do not exceed 40% of monthly income. If its the new rules then it must be true that the crisis in the USA must have made the pause from the Roh measures give the market time to reflect. One factor is the oversupply from the building boom especially since the new housing had become increasingly unaffordable to average South Koreans at 100 time average income a 3 bedroom apartment cost $2 million in Seoul. A real estate Professor at Konkuk University estimates that about 1 million units will come onto the market by 2013. 2013 thats because the construction has continued even as sales have come to a near halt. Apartment prices have gone up 3% in 2008 compared to 93% in the last 5 years according to Kookmin Bank. What does this mean for the other Asian markets such as China, India and other Asia. Its not just speculation thats disappearing, but is there a sense that the market for Asian goods in the USA, especially for export powerhouses in Asia such as South Korea, is taking a hit from the credit and housing crisis in the USA. And if thats the case what does this mean for other Asian housing markets in bubble mode, consider this a Early Warning Link. See the link to the South Korean election where even corruption charges against the favored candidate are not affecting his popularity because he is seen as a candidate to who could help S. Korea overcome fears about the economic future. Comments that the current crisis is tougher for real estate and construction than the one during the Korean financial crisis of the 1990's suggest that this is something serious. ...

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Supreme Court protects parent opt out of LGBTQ stories and requiring age verification for porn sites. Texas was where the civil rights movement got its support from president LBJ, a Democrat and FDR follower. And still Texas vote for the age verification for porn sites was voted for with support being 164-1. Yet Elena Kagan, who was a Harvard legal scholar, now Supreme Court Justice did not support this decision, and offered a flaky and irresponsible dissent- “Carefully drawn age verification laws stand a real chance of surviving.” What about the harm done to minors while the scholars quibble about legal writing. Kagan was in elite schools all her life, Hunter high school in NYC, Princeton Worcester Oxford, Harvard Law School,  and deputy assistant to Clinton, before Clinton's economic aide Summers picked her for Harvard Law School Dean, and Obama picked her for SC Justice. In 2025 these elitist backgrounds have failed, and are failing to address the problems of the Nation in a direct common sense way as faced by ordinary Americans and even by the 164 of 165 members of the Texas state legislature, which is saying a lot. A search shows failure of Google and of AI after search of 10 pages on Google no mention is found that the vote in Texas legislature was 164 to 1. Parents have to protect their rights and 22 states are now passing this law. ...

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Considering that weak consumer protection laws exacerbated the economic crisis by worsening the subprime crisis and weakening asset prices on the books of the banks, banks do not appear to have an understanding of where there deeper interests lie. Banking makes its best profits when it engages in prmoting the industrial activity, investment and growth of a country, and worst when it engages in the kind of mortgage activites that were common during the bubble in real estate.

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150,000 homes in Los Angeles region that mostly empty are owned by foreign buyers 2025 who live in China and use it as an investment or asset to use when needed. This is a sore point for people who cannot find housing after losing their home in wildfires. Many of these homes are in the San Gabriel Valley- Pasadena, Arcadia, Temple City and San Marino.  Investors in such homes come from China, Mexico and South Korea, and real estate agents say about 1 in 10 homes are going to foreign buyers in these suburbs. Restrictions on moving money overseas by China's government has reduced the flow of international buyers in recent years.

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The situation in small towns in East Germany such as Loecknitz on the Polish border. The economy is depressed with unemployment twice the level in West Germany, and young people moving away. The economy on the Polish side is much healthier and Poles are moving to the German side from the Polish city of Szczecin, a 30 minute drive. Poles are also buying depressed German real estate and starting businesses. This is adding to the local economy as young Germans have moved to the larger cities but there is the sense of being left behind among some Germans. It comes from the period of reunification when after investing $2 trillion to integrate the two economies the best that could be done was making cities like Leipzig and Dresden in the east prosper but leaving the coutnryside in East Germany in an abandoned state as young people sought opportunities elsewhere. This may be why Angela Merkel who grew up and studied in the former East Germany told the German parliament in June 2012, "Germany's strength is not infinite. Germany's powers, too, are not unlimited."...

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Mr. Chatzis is being forced to choose between paying a $372 real estate tax bill to keep his lights on, and paying for his wife's medicines on a $720 a month pension. Under new laws Greece now incorporates new property tax bills in the electricity bills ordinary Greeks receive. He says he cannot pay this. This was added as part of conditions agreed to by Greece for aid from the EU. Ordinary Greeks have paid real estate taxes in the past when they bought or sold property, and paid much lower taxes yearly to municipalities- about $133 yearly for Mr. Chatzis. The new tax means he will have to pay an additional $372 for the next two years. The new tax is added to electricity bills from the government owned electricity company to ensure payment. The tax makes no exceptions for the elderly or the unemployed. It is based on square footage, age of the building, and average value of the neighborhood, and has no relation to income. The feeling in Athens is that of growing resentment. Union workers have occupied the electric company's billing center, and the power company is holding off on electricity cutoff notices till the government decides. ...

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The Zillow index from Zillow Inc., the real estate web site, shows home values increasing by 5.8% in June 2013 over a year ago, and up 2.7% in the first six months of 2013. The Case-Shiller index shows home prices up 12.2% in May from one year ago. Economists say the Case-Shiller index overstates the price increases compares to the Zillow index because it includes foreclosed homes. During a period when foreclosures are slowing as in the past year, this tends to show a faster increase in prices in the Shiller index, with the reverse happening when foreclosures are high. This is because foreclosed homes sell at a large discount. The Zillow index excludes foreclosed homes removing this volatility in the index. Increase in mortgage rates by one percentage point, and future expectations of increases, are likely to keep price gains down in pricier markets of Boston, New York and San Francisco. Inventories are tight in some cities. Dallas, Los Angeles, San Diego, Washington D.C. and Orlando, have less than 3 months supply, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Phoenix, Seattle, Denver less than 2.5 months supply, according to a WSJ quarterly survey of 28 metro areas....

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President Trump announces the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Agreement of 2015 signed by president Obama. He calls it a bad deal and "a one sided agreement, that "didn't bring, calm, didn't bring peace, and never will." Since the signing of the agreement the conflicts in the Middle East have increased and relations between the U.S. and Iran have deteriorated under the Trump administration. During the election campaign candidate Trump and Republicans had criticized the deal and deal never gained Republican support. It was also not initially supported by France which called for stronger safeguards on nuclear weapons development. The appointment of John Bolton as National Security Adviser, and Mike Pompeo as the new Secretary of State, who were strong critics of the Iran nuclear deal also influenced president Trump. He was also influenced say aides by the success of his policy with North Korea of imposing strong bargaining pressure with tough sanctions on North Korea including Chinese sanctions, which led to the talks between North and South Korean presidents and the planned Trump meeting with Kim Jong-Un of North Korea. Iran's president Rouhani says Iran will stay with the agreement as the EU countries Germany, France plan to support the agreement. This could also leave an opening for future talks with Iran on a new peace agreement as  president Trump talked about Iranian people deserving a better deal at the end of his 11 minute announcement. As Stephens points out in a op-ed in the NYT Iran's economy needs the removal of sanctions so that focus could shift to economic development, as the lifting of sanctions have yet to result in increasing living standards and building infrastructure neglected during the sanctions years. ...

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Paulson says in his new book that debt as a percentage of GDP is up in China from 130% in 2008 to 204% in 2014. He sees the borrowing surge in China as certain to cause trouble, and describes a scenario where the real estate market runs into trouble. He is particularly concerned about the trust companies in China. The Economist has decribed this in similiar terms in its recent issues. And experts including Krugman have warned about this for some time.

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Mervyn King, a member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy committee, and former Governor of the Bank of England, says the British banks will need to raise 25 billion pounds in 2013. This is needed to meet potential losses in UK real estate and in loans to Ireland and Spain. The deputy governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, says the British banks have half of this in their plans for 2013, and Mervyn King says the problem is very manageable.

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Gregory Fleming was President and Chief Operating Officer of Merrill Lynch in 2007 and left when it merged with Bank of America. He later joined Yale Law School as lecturer. The new CEO of Morgan Stanley Gorman has appointed Fleming as head of Morgan Stanley's investment management business. Fleming played a key role in the combination of Merrill Lynch investment managemet with money manager Black Rock, where he was a director. At Merrill Fleming oversaw the private equity and real estate investment businesses.

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This report in the WSj looks at the Silicon valley approach of pursuing rapid torrential growth at any cost. It shows the victims as investors looking for outsize returns to the point of turning their attention from the facts showing the products as highly hyped improperly as tech for WeWork or having health risks in alternative smoking products in the case of Juul Labs Inc. Both company CEO's were asked to resign. This discussion is on the the limited number of new ideas as the tech really creative stuff  peters out and the tens of billions of dollars pursuing a few ideas even if they as in the case of WeWork basically a real estate company subleasing space were not really tech. The neglect of top priorities in infrastructure, in priorities for health, education and other pressing needs are a result of the misallocation of capital by capital markets structures of funds, banks and investors. Juul started at Stanford University and quickly raised $14 billion. Soon three million high schoolers in the U.S. were using the vaping product as e-cigarettes causing alarmed parents to bring up the issue and the Food and Drug Administration to look into it. As the tech boom results in fewer new ideas practices fail to change in the allocation of capital and wasted capital, resulting in gross neglect of priorities for infrastructure, health and education, wide gaps in income.   ...

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S. Gurumurthy of the Hindu points out the dangers of economic growth without job creation in a country like India. He points out that demonetization- removal of high denomination currency notes- came at a critical time when the economic growth was not creating enough jobs. He points to the five year period till 2010 as having created 2.7 million jobs with 8.5% growth. Even though with lower growth of 5.4% in the period 1999-2004 the job growth was for 60 million jobs created. Had demonetization not happened he says, the economy could have seen the problems the U.S. faced in 2008 with a bubble developing in the real estate market. The fundamental shift of the economy to digitization of payments, increase in tax receipts brings more of the informal economy- with a size of 50% of the economy generating 128 million jobs ten times the formal sector - into the formal economy. A step that is key for India to see rapid growth in the decade ahead. The slackening of the economy for a year is part of  a needed long term plan, says Prof. Gurumurthy, visiting IIT faculty in Bombay, just as liberalization was in the 1990's.  Some errors were made in implementation and flow of credit to the informal economy, including by the RBI, yet the fundamental shift through demonetization served a good purpose. Gurumurthy says, sadly this is missing in the current politicized debate.  ...

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The real estate bubble in China continues to grow even after th pandemic. Local governments depend on land sales for about 60% of their revenues. The government in Beijing also is unwilling to let prices decline too much because this could create unrest. As a result households have continued to add second, third homes in speculative investment. Unlike the U.S. where households invest in the stock and bond markets and residential property investment is one of several options, in China this is the only option people believe. The notion of continually rising prices is built into the mindset in China. This is happening even as those who do not have homes are still priced out of the market, and those with savings are pouring them into housing, more so as people save more in 2020. This can be seen in the vacant homes rising to about 40% for those buying second homes. People are also taking on more debt with consumer, mortgage and other debt of households getting close to 60% of the country's GDP, a high leverage ratio. This also means there is less capital to invest in productive investments in industry as more and more savings are tied up in housing with large vacancy rates meaning the housing is not even being used. Some of the speculative nature of this can be seen in this report in the WSJ for cities such as Tianjin, Shanghai and Shenzen. ...

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As part of it s deal to buy Bear Stearns JP Morgan gets $16 billion in commerical real-estate loans largely from the Blackstone deal to buyout Hilton Hotels and Stearns being the lead firm to sell $8.4 billion of the loans as bonds in a commercial mortgage bond offering. The Fed's gurantee upto $30 billion will protect JP Morgan for these commercial type liabilities.

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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In his State of the Union Address president Biden set the tone for the next 2 years of his term, and in preparation for another term to Build Back Better for America. He talked about his efforts to address the needs of America in rebuilding aging infrastructure, restoring its place in manufacturing, chips and science, and addressing climate change with trillions of dollars of investments. No longer would crowding out of government investment happen as it did in the last two decades with neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, workers and families, and massive misallocation of capital in capital markets. On Jobs, America and Renewal, "on rewarding work, not wealth" "Jobs are coming back. Pride is coming back because of the choices we made in the last two years. This is a blue collar blueprint to rebuild America and make a real difference in your lives." He told Congressman McCarthy-          "I don't want to ruin your reputation but I look forward to working with you." Reminding Republicans-  "The people sent us a clear message. Fighting for the sake of fighting, power for the sake of power, conflict for the sake of conflict gets us nowhere." ...

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It is not a Mystery as rural America has indeed been neglected under previous administrations. Krugman tries but misses catching the point. How the rural economy has changed in the last two decades and how it has been neglected is evident from many sources and reports which offers a window into the efforts to better understand and tackle the problems of rural America. A major problem is technological change which has reduced economic opportunities in rural areas. Another problem is that the earlier governments have not planned to invest in rural areas in a way that would restore dignity and work to communities, and better prepare for changes by taking actions that make the rural areas more resilient and create new opportunities to replace the old. Too much attention has gone to technological changes and companies in urban areas and too little to the real needs of rural America and revitalizing the regions as part of overall development. Compare this with Kennedy's exhortation in the South, in places like Arkansas in 1961-1963 with investment in that largely rural state saying that an investment there was as important for New York or California as it was part of investing in America- this is where he said "a rising tide lifts all boats" for the first time. ...