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WSJ Original article ›
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This WSJ report shows how a record 4.4 million American workers resigned from their jobs in September 2021 alone. WSJ shows map of US with the states where this is happening marked with "I Quit." States with the largest quit rates have large share of employment  in food, restaurant, hotel and entertainment industries- Hawaii, Montana, Utah, Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire, Louisiana. In the northeastern states the education sector which accounts for a larger share of employment the quit rate has risen at the fastest pace since January as shown in the Labor Department numbers. For years wages, benefits and working conditions in the food, restaurant, grocery store, hotel and entertainment industries, supply chain logistics, lagged behind, exacerbating inequality and widening the income gaps between working class Americans and the professional and other classes. Increases in minimum wages lagged behind the cost of raising families, rent and grocery bills. Professions such as nursing, children's education, critical to the nation's health were also left behind in wage increases as the tech boom rewarded different sectors in outrageous ways worsening the social divide and creating pools of income scarcity and income abundance in indiscriminate ways. The pandemic is changing all this. Workers in states with higher proportion of workers in these sectors of the economy are saying "I Quit," as they seek better opportunities elsewhere and better working conditions. The checks to working class Americans in 2020-2021 as aid for the pandemic, the child credits, investments in affordable housing, child care, early childhood education, and other aid in the Biden Families and Workers plan are giving workers for the first time in decades the right to choose better working conditions and incomes over worse working conditions and incomes that were set without regard to their role and contribution to the welfare of the whole country and people.  After the lockdowns in the northeastern states, States such as New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,  with higher vaccination rates and rebound in the economy are seeing higher job openings. This is making it possible for workers in the northeastern US to quit jobs in educational services and other sectors  for better paying jobs, better working conditions, remote work options, and improved work-life balance. ...
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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After the financial crisis of 2008-2009, commercial real estate defaults posed a serious threat to the US economy. Now this threat is receding with low interest rates making it easier to get cheap financing, which raises the returns. For banks the rising earnings give a cushion to absorb losses, letting them sell distressed properties and not have to hold onto them. From office towers in Manhattan to Florida apartment buildings and retail properties in Washington, commercial real estate values are going up. Prices of commercial real estate properties sold by institutional investors went up by 19% in 2010, according to an index developed by the MIT Center for Real Estate. Investors have boosted the prices of bonds backed by commerical real estate to the highest level in two years. The managing director at Real Capital Analytics says, that with values going up, both the owners and lenders have more room to work out difficult situations. Real Capital Analytics January 2011 report shows that of the $52 billion in retail properties to fall into default, a little over half have completed workouts. In Feb 2010, the Congressional Oversight Panel of the Troubled Asset Relief Program said that the commercial real estate market had the potential to pose a serious threat to the US economy. The panel estimated that about half of the $1.4 trillion in commercial property real estate loans set to be paid off by 2014 were under water, where the borrower owes more than the property is worth. Market segments for hotel, apartment buildings and retail are going up. Hotel occupancy rates in the top 25 markets went up from 60% to 64%, according to Smith Travel Research. Sales of apartment buildings in the US went up as home ownership hit new lows, and lease rates went up to the highest levels in 4 years, according to Axiometrics....
The Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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So much for political campaigning and talk of inflation, inflation comes in lower in September after DJT tariffs of 10-15% on EU, Japan and other trading partners. The higher tariffs on China are action needed to reduce trillion dollar trade deficits the world has with China, deficits that are economically destabilizing for the world economy, with supply chain concentration a serious problem. US inflation in September came in at 3.0 percent lower than expected.  One reason is that the headline numbers are high but in actual practice the tariffs are on average at 12.5% not 17% or 25% as headlines show. The tariffs vary by country and the US was careful to keep them at 10% for the EU and Britain and 15% for Japan, the key trading partners. China is an exception at 47% because it is US policy to reduce the world's 1 trillion trade deficit with China and cutting this is a major goal. For decades the US tried every possible way to bring it down to no avail till this effort with tariffs. Another is exceptions in products- for India this includes semiconductors, smartphones and pharmaceuticals. Another factor is that postpandemic inflation in 2021-2022 created higher profit margins in auto, retail and other sectors of the economy. As a result only 30-40% of the tariff gets passed onn to consumers. In autos only about 20% because buyers cannot afford the high prices. Some tariffs are still being negotiated and are a foreign policy tool to get India to stop funding Russia in the Ukraine war knowing that India was importing most of its oil from non-Russian sources till 2019. China is also funding Russia, that is true but the US can insist on exercising its leverage with Asian partners not China. With China the tariff on fentanyl and the overall 47% tariff- down from 57% after meetings in Busan, South Korea between Xi and DJT last month- shows the US takes the Chinese role in distorting world trade to its benefit seriously.  ...
NYTimes.com Original article ›
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Fox News and WSJ are taking differing positions on Epstein case with Fox News ignoring it and the WSJ carrying the story. Murdoch and DJT have a complicated relationship in July 2025 following the $10 billion DJT lawsuit against Murdoch filed in late July after a story in the WSJ. WSJ parent company Dow Jones says it stands by the story and will defend the accuracy of its reporting. Both the DJT Republicans and the Fox News network appeal to conservative viewers of television, and people in business. WSJ has carried stories questioning the tariff policies of the president, and is critical. It is also not fully supportive of policies to handle migrants. Fox News another Murdoch news outlet is through programs like "Hannity" supporting the president and DJT supports it. This creates a dichotomy in the support when DJT and Republicans are putting forward an agenda that is moving fast on the economy, migration, crime, and world trade requiring support to keep the conservative groups together in the US. This is not a situation encountered before as the nation is moving to a crossroads in which direction it should take. And this does not even take up the issues of climate protection which will come up, and of pharmaceutical companies overcharging Americans for healthcare, other battles that will take place.   ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
 China exports to the US $438 billion vs $143 billion the US sends to China - the US deficit with China 2024 equals $295 billion. This is the fact that the media continues to ignore. Behind this is the gutting of the industrial base of the US shipped offshore to China since 2000 by American companies. 5 million jobs lost and tens of thousands of factories destroying the backbone of the economy, America's middle class.  Much of the US exports are oil and gas which can be shipped to Europe, India and other places. The soyabeans and grain from America's farmers is the other part of exports of $13 billion. The US can find other markets for the farm products including India under a trade agreement, and farmers can be supported with agricultural subsidies. It only makes sense to rebuild America's industrial base and pull back from an unfair trade arrangement that can only be the result of serious neglect of their responsibilities of previous administrations before DJT in 2016. The piecemeal efforts 2016-2024 have not worked to rebuild America's middle class,  recover jobs and factories, as a result a new bolder approach is needed in 2025 to rewrite the rules for world trade for an even playing field where everyone is treated with fairness. ...
The Hindu Original article ›
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In the meeting in the Oval Office Biden and Modi had this to say about India US relations. Modi called it a "transformative" decade. Mr. Biden called it a "new chapter" in ties, taking on tough challenges in coronavirus vaccines for the rest of Asia outside India and China, tackling climate change, and ensuring rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.  Biden's view- "I think that the relationship between India and the US, two of the largest democracies in the world, is destined to be stronger, closer, tighter, and I think it can benefit the whole world." A look at the US under the Biden administration shows a US that is very different from that of the US in the period of presidents since Harry Truman when he met Jawaharlal Nehru at the White House in October 1949. Biden sees the US needing renewal of its infrastructure, reviving worker incomes and families, regaining its leadership of the free world, for its role and place in the world. Throughout the period 1949 to 2020 for 70 years India was never seen as a modernizing nation of 1.2 billion people. For most of this period it lacked the good governance and speedy implementation of modernization of economy that is essential for a truly good relationship. By releasing the potential of the younger generation in a country where people under 35 years form the major part of the population, with good governance and development agenda, the Indian prime minister has changed the entire dynamics of the India US relationship. This is happening in the way China had done in its relationship with the US after 2000 by modernizing the country. India is now the country with huge potential and the country the US sees as helping it build its own role and place in the world. The sheer size of India and its population with countries around it in the east such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam with shared values in south and southeast Asia bring together a population of close to 2 billion people much larger than China, to determine the direction of Asia.  This is the new chapter that president Biden has in mind, and it is also the "transformative decade" in the eyes of prime minister Modi as India finally puts behind it years of bad governance, and speeds up modernizing its economy.   ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
This report in WSJ shows how the US central bank, the Federal Reserve's increase in interest rates by 5 percentage points in the short space of 2 years affects Europe. It increases inflation in Europe as energy and many other products are priced in US dollars, with the strengthening of the dollar in relation to the euro. The dollar is $1.07 in relation to the euro. European Union is facing much higher inflation than the US. The German economy has slipped into a mild recession in 2023.

NYTimes.com Original article ›
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US Senate increases debt limit increase to $5.1 trillion from House 3B Tax Cuts Bill debt limit of $4.1 trillion in 2025. The Big Bold Beautiful Bill as the president calls it will also make the debt limit increase permanent to avoid the brinksmanship of earlier administrations. Republicans will pass this as they assume the mantle of working for the average middle class and working class household. Republicans have taken up the cause of small businesses in the US who are supported by this bill. The bill in the view of Treasury Secretary Bessent helps growth of the economy through its 100% expensing provisions, so that the capital expenditures spending of small and large businesses on equipment and buildings that is now held up will take place  rapidly in the coming year. The 3B Tax Cuts Bill does decrease the taxes of the higher income households, yet it also decreases the taxes of small business owners, and of people in the middle income range. Similar bills in the Reagan period led to a larger share of national income going to a majority of the population, and increasing growth and investment. This bill's expensing provisions goes a step further to release capex energies. During the Carter period before Reagan and the Biden period before Trump's second term the lower income classes were cheated out of their income's propensity for a better standard of living by inflation. Republican administration of DJT has focused on inflation to help working class people and focused on capital investment to generate the growth that will increase jobs. ...
The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Wang Yi, a senior adviser for China's decarbonization strategy and 5 year plan has this to say about China's approach to climate change. Yi says it is more important to focus on what actions are to be taken between now and 2030. Here he says China has outlined concrete steps that it will take that the world media has not covered in its coverage of COP26 Glasgow. Yi says China is making changes to its entire system not only its energy sector, across the whole society and the economy. Yet he says "nobody knows this." The working guidance document for carbon control China has put out says it will peak coal consumption by 2025.  Yi says it is unfair to ask China to close all coal powered plants, saying that if these plants with a life of 10 years were closed now who will pay for stranded assets and who will hire the laid off workers. He called attention to western nations failure to provide climate finance to China, India and developing countries. And he called attention to the the plans that by 2030 Chinese investment is to have 1200 gigawatts of installed solar and wind energy, more than the entire installed electricity capacity of the US. He says we are all in the same boat yet in different cabins, with some living in bigger space and consuming too much. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
It took 25 years for the US to recover from the 1929 stock market disaster and the Great Depression. It took Japan 25 years to recover from the 1989 stock market collapse and the lost decades since. It is finally emerging from that period with a healthier economy and business structures. China faces a situation today of a struggling economy after years of excessively rapid growth that hurt the environment and climate and health. And the uncertainty that faced Japan after 1989 also faces China in 2024- growth is never linear over very long periods and has pull backs that could stretch for decades much too familiar for Japan. For India there are lessons to be learned from Japan's and China's experience. In environment not to risk polluting the environment as China experienced with breakneck unchecked growth, to be mindful of bringing up all sectors and parts of the population, and to manage growth so that the basic instability that resulted from excessive shift to China of manufacturing and deindustrialization in US that led to worsening trade and people to people relations between US and China is not repeated. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
China is going through a long period of debt reduction or deleveraging in which income is diverted to payoff debt and debt reduction. Debt has piled up at local governments, households, and the private sector during the period of heavy borrowing to expand the economy and build infrastructure. BIS data shows total debt in China at 295% of GDP in September 2022 compared to 257% in the US and 258% in the Eurozone. This report in WSJ says consumers are hoarding cash and refusing to take out new loans, private businesses are barely investing, and local governments are paring down debt for all expenses including worker's salaries and roads.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The US added 167,000 jobs in July 2023 from a month earlier, according to the Labor Department, less than 200,000 anticipated. Higher population numbers and higher labor force participation rates offset the increasing  number of retired people in the US. More people added to the population from immigration and more younger people participating in prime age under 54. This means the US is where it would like to be with the Fed not having to increase rates that much in coming months, says Justin Lahart of WSJ. The Labor Department increased its estimates of population by 867,000, and the labour force participation for prime age is up to 84%. These are good signals for the US economy, that there is room for more jobs growth and income growth with an unemployment rate at 3.5%, and less need for increasing interest rates by the Fed.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
With the 15% mandated cuts to energy use in the European Union countries and the shutoff of Russian gas supplies, three remaining German nuclear plants can be run for an extended period to take off some of the strain on the German economy. Sentiment for nuclear power is changing in Germany. A Spiegel opinion poll is cited in this WSJ editorial that shows 78% of Germans favor keeping the three remaining nuclear plants operating till summer 2023, and 67% say it is a good idea to keep them running for 5 years.  The issues of nuclear vs solar, or coal and gas vs solar is not a yes or no proposition anymore as shown in the negotiated measures to allow some coal and gas operations in the US in the Biden Climate Change bill that passed the US Senate on August 7, 2022. This is not merely a concession to a fossil fuel dependent state (West Virginia) and Senator Manchin, this is a realization that the transition can be better managed economically and the same results for renewable energy and climate change emissions goals can be met with a carefully planned  strategy that allows for LNG exports to Europe, and fossil fuel production flexibility in the face of the embargo on Russian fossil fuel supplies. ...
NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
After all the media talk about tariffs inflation- inflation is at 2.4% in May 2025. Tariffs was part of the toolbox of strategies under Lighthizer and Jamieson on getting fair world trade, and not like Congressman Hawley in the 1920's who understood little about the workings of the US economy. This fact the official media such as the WSJ and NYT, Wash Post, BBC need to get it right about the Hawley Tariffs. Hawley was born in rural Oregon in 1864 went to country schools, and was president of Willamette University in Salem, when it's population was 4258. As House Ways and Means Committee chairman he wrote the failed tariffs bill Hoover signed in 1930. DJT's US Trade Representative Lighthizer in 2016 led the successful negotiations with Japan under Reagan, Scott Bessent who leads negotiations on tariffs with China with USTR Jamieson, has a deep understanding and grasp of today's financial markets. Tariffs is one of the tools in the US toolbox to get Japan, China, South Korea to even the playing field for US companies and bring back manufacturing to the US. Without it China would not budge from its unfair advantage and would not negotiate in fairness. This is proven in the way Japan in the 1980s and China today are responding to the US position preparing their economies for not relying on sudden surges in exports putting whole industries and workers in America and Europe out of work and out of jobs. DJT says- "No we are not going to accept that," the EU is catching on and adopting a similar position, China knows that.  The media is irresponsible in presenting tariffs in a negative way, irresponsible to American workers the 10 million put out of work since 2000, and to American families and the Nation.   ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The US central bank's, the Fed's head Jerome Powell, says about the US economy in the beginning of October 2024- "Overall, the economy is in solid shape; we intend to use our tools to keep it there.”  Overall the Fed's governors on its board have a relatively favorable economic outlook- “this is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” says Powell. The Fed has the same idea of common sense for the economy, common sense for what works to reduce cost of living and increase investments in the US manufacturing and industry, that the Biden administration and Harris have adopted. The thrust of the Fed's policy says Powell is focused on bringing interest rates down to a level that neither spurs nor slows economic activity. Each action is based on observation of data and taken with the goal of the wellbeing of the People of the US, and Nation as a whole.   ...
The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Lilith Verstrynge, former party secretary of Podemos, and daughter of a Belgian politician, describes the rise and collapse of Podemos, a popular party in Spain in a coalition duringthe Covid years with the Socialist party in Spain led by Pedro Sanchez. A 31 year old who now teaches in Paris describes Podemos- a social movement based on online support and no organization under Pablo Iglesias which collapses in Spain by 2024. Podemos or translated into Spanish as "We Can" emerged from the 2009 banking speculation caused financial crisis and the years that followed with the Eurozone financial crisis which entangled the economies of Spain, Ireland, UK, Greece, and other nations in the European Union. As he crisis receded and with action taken under Pedro Sanchez's Socialist government in the areas of housing, support services, and the economy, as the economy improved the movement gradually fizzled out. Under Sanchez the Catalonian independence movement also receded with elections in Barcelona and Catalonia brining to power a socialist government. This period in Spanish political upheaval is described by Verstrynge in The Guardian, who retired from politics in her early 30's as a result. She says without any organizational structure to support such online movements once the initial surge in interest is passed there is no way to sustain it. ...
Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Only 1 year after getting 412 seats in parliament Labor party under Keir Starmer a public defender, and Angela Rayner is seen as having lost much of it's support in Britain. So have the Conservatives who fare even worse. Only the Liberal Democrats and SNP in Scotland hang on. Outlandish You.gov poll June 26 2025 shows Reform UK with 271 seats in British parliament, Labor at 178 seats, Conservatives 46 seats in hung parliament. Nigel Farage led the fight for Brexit, and voters are having second thoughts about the value of Brexit. On immigration Nigel Farage led the fight, both parties have failed to stop migration. On welfare cuts by Labor this could lead to it doing better than Conservatives, yet Farage taking a position to avoid harsh cuts gets him Labor support. Britain sees the two main parties ineffective in meeting cost of living goals for the British people. But does Reform UK have the answers, and has it been getting the scrutiny it should be getting? Is Kemi Badenoch the right leader for the Conservatives, and how popular is Keir Starmer, how good is his stewardship of the economy?  ...
The Guardian Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Levelling up is proving to be a false promise of the Conservatives. Where the money is coming from and how much and where it is going answers the question in America for Biden. Fair taxation is key, a strong economy is key for Biden. Fair taxation supports trillions in public investment that in turn generate private investment. In the second quarter of 2023 business investment was up 56% in Biden America, about $1 trillion with more in the pipeline.  The Conservatives fail on both and have no plan for step by step action that fits needs and opportunities in the economy as Biden has. Getting equal share of the fruits of labour to all Britons is never going to happen under trickle down economics of the Trump or Tory kind. That much is clear as daylight.

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
This Journal editorial points to a Philadelphia Fed study showing that students in the middle class with higher student debt are reluctant to start small business. The Fed study shows new firms with five employees declined by 17% on average for 2000-2010 in counties where relative student debt was up by 2.7%. The average student loan customer owes $28,000. Student debt has doubled from $547 billion in 2007 to over $1 trillion in 2015. As small business makes up about half of the private economy and generates 6 of 10 new jobs, the effects on small business show the damage being done rising student loan debt.
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
US economic growth surged at a rate of 6.5% for the April to June period in 2021. This pushes the economy beyond its pre-pandemic size. Growth was lower than the 8.4% forecast of economists, yet strong enough to increase its size to exceed the pre pandemic level. It was powered by the business reopenings, vaccination drive, and the government infusion of pandemic aid to households and business. New restrictions after this summer for coronavirus following last year's pattern with extensive summer tourism and spread of coronavirus, could again slow the economy. Government infusions of aid aided consumer spending, and this could slow in the months ahead, and lockdown restrictions could limit growth.

NYTimes.com Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation is about too much money chasing too few goods or services. Paul Krugman, economic expert, says in the NYT that this inflation episode in 2021 is still he thinks transitory, as does the Fed's Jerome Powell. It is Krugman says a demand pull situation in which higher demand is  a result of the lockdowns easing and pent up consumer demand being released, just when the productive capacity of the country is affected by about 4 million fewer workers in factories and other places. The supply is crimped also by supply chain bottlenecks with covid affecting supply from countries in Asia also with fewer factories operating. Added to this is the whole logistics chain near Long Beach California moving ever so slowly because of fewer workers, and ships lined up all the way out to sea. The Fed chairman Powell thinks this is what is happening. Krugman says this reminds him of the 1946-48 episode of inflation after the war, when the disaster of war was followed by peace time 1946 and the release of pent up demand like today. At the same time in 1946 factories were still not fully operational for consumer goods after bombing in Europe and war time conversion in the US. The result too much money chasing too few goods available. In this situation Krugman says a calibrated effort that is based on new information is needed with moderate action, very small rate increases in 2022 so that inflation signals are sent out by Fed but not in a way that would disturb the long term trajectory of the economy for growth. After the pandemic has hit so many Americans so hard. Action that would preserve the long term strength and productive capacity, and technological competitiveness of America during this period of renewal. ...
WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Cheap fixed rate mortgages make up two thirds of home mortgages in the US. Most are at 4% or lower interest rate. A new 30 year home mortgage in 2024 would be about 7%. About 660,000 job offers that required moving and selling the home were turned down. This means fewer homes left for people to buy leading to higher home prices. The additional equity people have in their home on average is $119,000 over 4 years and this means consumer spending is resilient in the face of higher interest rates and keeps inflation at 3%. How does this affect the economy? Fewer homes on the market means there is a loss to the economy of 3% to 5% of output, according to NAHB. The smaller supply of homes means there is less home inventory to search from- instead of 62% in more normal times affordability for someone with a $100,000 in income is now 37% of the listings. This is not expected to change in the next 2 years.


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