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Bangladesh is seen as doing better than India and Pakistan in life expectancy, hunger, fertility rates, and other key development indicators. The new Padma Bridge over the Ganges river operational in 2019 will link different parts of the country and is expected to add 1% to GDP growth. Other infrastructure projects are being planned with $30 billion in projects planned with China including a new port south of Chittagong. The Vision 2021 Plan plans to take Bangladesh out of the poorest nation group by 2021, the 50th anniversary of independence. Germany is the second largest donor and the gender equality in Bangladesh with coeducation in schools is seen by experts as unique among all Muslim countries. The growth of Dhaka and the social and economic change from 5 million garment workers, mostly women and rural could lead to social and cultural change that may be underestimated, says DW.com, providing the view from Germany. DW.com also warns that there are risks for Bangladesh in relying on remittances from Gulf countries, and in not diversifying so that it is not dependent on textile exports alone. Overall German view is that development aid works, and Bangladesh is welcomed from that perspective in Germany. ...

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Matteo Renzi, recently elected chief of Italy's ruling Democratic party, is likely to be the next prime minister as current prime minister Letta resigns. Letta's administration had come under increasing criticism from business and public opinion about the slow pace of economic changes in Italy. Italy's 2 trillion debt, or about $2.7 trillion, at 130% of GDP, and the declining GDP with little or no economic growth, is a problem for the eurozone. At the current pace of economic change the IMF forecast estimates only 0.5% annual growth in GDP till 2018. Foreign direct investment 2005-2011 is about one third of the eurozone average, according to the IMF, and Italy has failed to attract foreign investment for the last two decades with its weak political system and lack of competitiveness. By comparison Spain has seen an increase in exports and increasing foreign investment as it positions itself for a recovery. The austerity measures adopted by the Monti and Letta adminstrations in 2011-2013 helped to improve confidence in capital markets and lower borrowing rates, however this is clearly not the answer to Italy's problems of slow or no growth in the economy for the last decade. This is the problem Matteo Renzi, the 39 year old Mayor of Florence, is pushing to tackle as the mood in the country calls for aggressive action. Renzi's economic advisor is Filippo Taddei, who has a doctorate from Columbia University. He says at the core the issues are about what kind of "productive identity" Italy should have. Taxation that promotes higher rates of business investment is needed to promote growth, and creating a business climate that encourages investment in human capital and new technology. Payroll and business taxes take up about two thirds of a company's earnings leaving less for investment. Renzi is planning to take the centre left Democratic party in a new direction, "the road less travelled," as he put it in a televised speech, with innovative solutions including pro-market approach. As a first step he negotiated a deal with former premier Berlusconi for electoral reforms that would give a party or coalition winning electoral support a strong mandate to make and execute policy, without being hobbled in the way previous administrations were in the post war period. Lucrezia Reichlin, former head of research at the ECB, and Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former member of the ECB executive council, are candidates to be the economics minister in the Renzi administration....

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With 18% of GDP and 22% of wages coming from the insurance and financial sector, New York state is vulnerable to the downturn and its effects will trickle to all parts of the northeast region. And the pull of this sector which had GDP growth of 4.4% in 2007, for the second largest state in the USA after California and Texas, will be absent as the country faces a severe downturn.

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Analysts and experts says Turkey faces a debt bubble like that facing Spain and Ireland. The budget deficits in Spain and Ireland were considered manageable before the banking crises in the two countries. Turkey's short term borrowing- most of the $221 billion in outside financing needed for the private sector in 2013 is in short term loans. The large current account deficit and rate of growth in credit approaching IMF warning indicators are a problem. Volatile capital inflows could reverse as investors look for safe havens with the continuing street protests in Istanbul. Earlier currency crises in 1993 and 2001 were currency crises from volatile capital inflows. Turkey's central bank is trying to manage this situation and has $100 billion in currency reserves. But it is the hidden buildup of external debt by banks and companies in Turkey that worries analysts like Richard Segal at Jefferies bank in London. A $400 billion public spending plan, over 50% of Turkey's $770 billion GDP, is being prepared by the Erdogan government for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state in 1923, showing that the scale of public spending is not under control. Analysts say at some point the huge credit bubble will burst, as it has in other countries including Spain, where the central bank appeared to have things under control. The street protests add political risk to the increasing risk for emerging markets with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift to increasing interest rates....

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The 2009 budget of the Obama government has some optimistic assumptions built into it for the deficits in future years. For 2009 the GDP declines by 1.2%, for 2010 the GDP growth is 3.2%. With these assumptions its possible to bring the $1.75 trillion deficit in 2009 to less than $600 billion by 2012, and getting to that point requires GDP to rise by 4% a year by then. This is assuming the growth quickly returns to the growth rates of the 1990's. In one area the administrations' forecasts are more optimistic than the Fed's and may turn out to be too optimistic. The administration's assumption is for unemployment to average 7.9% in 2010 when it may be close to 9% or higher. For example Goldman Sachs economists expect the unemployment rate to be at 9.5% by late 2010. And Goldm,an's growth rate for 2010 is just 1.3%, and that also may prove to be optimistic whereas the budget assumes 3.2%. What all this means that money has to be spent on the priorities outlined by the President, but the most buck for the money has to be obtained because further outlays will be needed in future years. This is a very important point, and a lot of checks and transparency and careful monitoring of projects has to be put in place throughout 2009....

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Next to Uttar Pradesh 242 million population adjacent Bihar with 128 million is decisive in Indian parliament elections since 1947- 2025 state elections show BJP NDA (Modi) sweeping win with over 203 of 243. Assembly seats. Unknown to most of the world is that this region is the birthplace of Buddhist civilization and culture, that later was part of Asian culture and civilization as it spread to China and Japan. Modi plans to add to Nalanda and other seats of Buddhist ancient universities on the world map with UNESCO listings.  The Indian economy needs 15-20 years of stable government dedicated to rapid accelerated growth with full access to US and EU technologies and capital to catch up with China, the US and EU. The road to this starts with 5 regions- northcentral  region Gujarat/Rajasthan/Madhya Pradesh  (99 seats), west central region Maharashtra (48 seats), northern region Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Haryana and Delhi region (17 seats) and Eastern region Bihar (40 seats) which together provide  seats in Indian parliament  284 seats out of total of 543 seats in the Indian parliament. For the first time with the win in Bihar the Modi government is now within reach of this goal of being able to govern in a democracy for next 15 years by delivering on infrastructure, cost of living and rapid industrialization and growth of the economy similar to Japan's and China's growth since 1950. The LDP delivered this in Japan, the CCP in China and the NDA under Modi is in the same position today. ...

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Xi Jinping in his New Year speech showed an awareness of the vast changes taking place and the need for humility, listening to different viewpoints during the pandemic. It reflects the new tone after the zero covid policies were abruptly put aside. "Ours is a big country. It is only natural for different people to have different concerns or hold different views on the same issue." Xi urged consensus through communication and consultation. He has told visiting European officials that the frustration with covid policies had caused prtoests mostly by students. Today sick workers are bringing factories to a halt, service sector activity is slowing down. Hospitals are swamped with sick patients. Xi says the policy shift is a way to adapt to the evolving virus with higher transmissibility and lower fatality rate for Omicron coronavirus. He describes China's economy as basically sound and reaching 4% growth in 2022 and GDP at about $17.4 trillion not adjusted for inflation. ...

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A question about perceptions of the  of Indian Muslim communities is asked at the Peterson Institute in Washington D.C. Nirmala Sitharaman, India's Finance Minister, responds by comparing the situation where India's Muslim communities have grown from about 10% of the population in 1947 to 15% today compared to Pakistan where Muslim communities were not protected and dwindled from 15% of the population to about 3% today. She did not mention the inclusivity in policy where sab ka vikas sab ke sath is national policy, development for all with the participation of all. And that Muslims benefit equally with other communities in the rapid growth of the economy and GDP in India. This positive story for Muslims and for all communities also stems from the ideals of Vedanta, respect for all religions in Vivekananda's idea including Buddhism, Christianity and Islamic faiths. It also comes from India being rooted in Gandhi's and Vivekananda's ideas since independence. ...

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S&P downgraded Spain's credit rating from A to BBB-plus. Moody's Investors service maintained Spain's rating at A3, one notch above S&P, and Fitch Ratings kept the rating at A, two notches above S&P. S&P says it sees a deteriorating economic outlook for Spain with the economy contracting at 1.5% in 2012 and 0.5% in 2013. Prior forecasts by S&P showed GDP growth of 0.3% in 2012 and 1% for 2013. S&P predicts net general government debt at 76.6% of GDP in 2014, up from its prior estimate of 64.6% of GDP.

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The purpose of the National Education Policy was to prepare India's young people for India as a developed modernized country and to meet the educational needs of such an economy. The idea was to break the idea of silos based education that separate the science, engineering, medicine, law, arts, humanities, languages based education into separate non mixable parts. It is based on the idea that in modernized economies one needs critical thinking abilities, creative thinking, that mixes the humanities and arts with sciences, with engineering, and other scientific fields.  Because of India's diveristy, history of disadvantaged populations, to build an inclusive economy is also a goal to tap into the widest pool of human potential and talent in a country with 1.2 billion people. For this to happen the goals are set for inclusivity for gender and disadvantaged populations.  What is not in NEP is the investment part, and the governance part, both critical for it to be effective. Investment at 4-6% of GDP is inadequate, as this Brookings report point out. For healthcare and education, India has to expand its share of GDP dedicated to these two areas to make it comparable to other advanced nations. This will pay off in infrastructure development and exports led growth as inputs of education are key to get productivity up in manufacturing and in R&D. Governance is essential part of this overall plan as the public school system in India as in Brazil, Mexico and other countries suffers badly from a lack of attention- with discipline, transparency, good government, increasing incomes and rewarding teachers at every level. ...

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Brazil's currency, the Real, lost 5% of its value in the week Aug.12-16, 2013. The real dropped in value to 2.39 reals per dollar on Aug. 16. Brazil had a trade deficit of $5 billion by July 2013. GDP growth is expected to decline to 2% for 2013. The current account deficit is growing with spending growth and declining tax revenues.

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The risks facing the Chinese economy in 2012-2015 from asset bubbles in housing, bad loans in the banking system and slower growth. Expert opinion from Roubini, Shih and others on the risks China faces. Risks include what is called the middle income trap, in which China's GDP per capita gets stuck at a certain middle level as economic growth declines. Economic growth could drop to below 5% in the latter part of this decade according to this scenario.

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China's jobs situation is holding up better than expected with lower levels of economic growth. In 2014 there were 115 job openings for every 100 applicants, according to an official labor survey. Part of the reason is that the services sector is playing a larger role in growth. The services sector contributed 3.8% to growth in 2014, compared to the slower growing manufacturing sector, which contributed 3.0 percentage points. With problems in heavy industry and real estate this is reducing the need for larger stimulus spending. Official figures for GDP growth in 2014 are 7.4%.

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Britain has fallen way behind under Conservatives Tories misrule. On just about all indicators of the economy the US is ahead of Britain, on cost of living, on investment in infrastructure, on chips and science, on unemployment and on economic growth. The US economic growth was 2% compared to 0.5% for Britain.  Britain under the Tories over the last ten years lost so much ground fighting for Brexit and hurting it's economy. The Tory party is itself torn apart again today by Farage's Reform party, much of it from poor leadership- Cameron, Boris Johnson, Sunak. The result today is that Labour's Starmer says he has a 22 billion pound gap in the Budget that the Tories Conservatives have left him, a hole he says that will lead to Labour cutting winter fuel payment for pensioners this winter.  The US with president Biden is so far ahead of Britain with $1 trillion in investments taking place under the Inflation Reduction Act and $53 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act. Harris plans to build 3 million homes and offer $100 billion to small business to spur growth. There is just no comparison and owes much to president Biden and Harris, and to senior Republicans who supported the administration on the economy. ...

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President Obama's 15 member Independent Payment Advisory Board, which is given the task of reducing Medicare costs and holding them to GDP growth and half a percentage point after 2018, under the Obama deficit reduction plan.

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China's exports were able to show year over year growth of 7.6% in the first quarter of 2012, a sharp decline from 20.3% in 2011. As a result IMF estimates of China's long term current account surplus which were about 7% of GDP in the World Economic Outlook in Sept. 2011 may now be lowered to about 5%. This would reduce the strength of arguments that the yen is undervalued. The IMF is now engaged in making estimates for current account balances till 2017. China's current account surplus peaked at 10.1% of GDP in 2007 and the IMF forecasts in 2008 were for this to remain at 10% for the long term. The situation is rapidly changing because the most recent estimates from China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange show the actual current account surplus for 2011 at 2.8% of GDP. Since the 2010 Group of 20 nations summit meeting when China was pressured to reduce its trade surplus and let the yuan appreciate, the yuan has appreciated by 8.3%.

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Growth is back in the eurozone. The OECD estimates 2.1% growth in 2017 and 1.9% growth in 2018 for the eurozone countries. Business investment is up significantly- up 5.7% in the first half of 2017. Worldwide business investment in 2016 was at 1.3 trillion euros, up 7.2% from the prior year, according to Eurostat.

New investment for electric vehicles in the auto industry is also up significantly in an industry that provides 10% of all jobs in manufacturing. Yet business investment is only half of what it needs to be- to makeup 5% of GDP- to spur good job creation, says this report in the WSJ. Use of automation is also limiting the number of jobs created. Real wage growth is also lacking.

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Nouriel Roubini has proven correct on global financial issues. He said in an interview on the sidelines of a symposium in Malaysia, that China needs to revalue its currency for its own sake. China will see a growth collapse in the next 2-3 years if it fails to do so. His point is that China can still maintain growth by shifting to domestic consumption and less infrastructure spending and exports. In his view growth should not be affected if China exports less and consumes more. He points to the decrease in consumption as a share of GDP from 45% to 36% in the last ten years- this ratio is 70% in the USA. A cheap yuan keeps foreign goods unaffordable and protects state owned companies which also get cheap credit, as keeping the yuan low requires China to keep interest rates artificially low. What this does is make a massive transfer of income from the household sector to the state owned companies, just at the time when China needs to do the very opposite of this. And compounding the problem is that the 25% of China's GDP that is made up of retained earnings of mostly state owned companies, goes into real estate and production facilities. See the link to David Barboza in the New York Times who points to the wasteful spending and real estate speculation by state owned companies. Roubini cites the automobile sector where capacity has doubled in the last year to 20 million, when the domestic market increased by 50% to 10 million vehicles. The stimulus only increased the effect of surplus capacity and misallocation of investment, with highways to nowhere and brand new airports that are three quarters empty. The Chinese leadership is beginning to grasp this, but the state owned companies and other interests who benefit fromm the old model, may make it difficult to reverse the trends. A lot is at stake in this, as it affects the U.S., as well as countries dependent on China's imports such as Australia, Canada, Brazil and Germany. ...

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Britain's chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, tells parliament it will be difficult for Britain to avoid a recession if Europe goes into a recession in 2012-2013. He also told parliament that British debt reduction will take longer than planned because of the economic slowdown. This means the British public will have to go through two more years of austerity than previously planned, now upto 2017. Britain will need to borrow an additional 111 billion British pounds through 2015. Britain's Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts economic growth at 0.9% in 2011, and 0.7% in 2012. Debt as a share of GDP will peak at 78% in 2015, instead of the 71% expected earlier. With strong opposition from the unions and a major strike planned by about 2 million workers on Nov. 30, 2011, the Cameron government plans to go ahead with its austerity measures. This includes eliminating 600,000 public sector jobs, and limiting pay increases for public sector workers to 1% for two years after the end of the current pay freeze....

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Yannis Stournaras, economcs professor at the University of Athens becomes the finance minister in the new administration of prime minister Antonis Samaras. He holds a doctorate from Oxford University in economic theory and policy, lectured at St. Catherine's College, Oxford and at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. He was special advisor on monetary policy to the finance minstry and Greece's central bank. His public official positions include vice chairman of the Greek natural gas company and board member of the public debt management agency. He is well qualified to lead the effort for Greece to remain in the European Union with modified terms that extend the achievement of deficit targets by 2 years to 2016, and offer tax cuts and other growth oriented measures to get the Greek economy back on the path to recovery and growth after 4 years of declining GDP. He also brings a sense of committment to the EU, because he was chief economic advisor to Greece's Finance Ministry in 1994-2000 and took part in the negotiations that led to Greece's joining the eurozone in 2001. His strong views about changes needed to Greece's overregulated economy which favors special interests also coincide with the moves for labor and other reforms taken by the Monti and Rajoy governments in Italy and Spain. ...

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Michael Dell donation of $6.25 billion for Trump $1000 child investment accounts. The Trump accounts were passed by Congress for giving tax deferred investment accounts to children born from Jan.1 2025 to Dec 31 2028, as a way to give 25 million lower income children a good start in education and opportunities in life. The Dell money $250 per account will go to 25 million children, go to 10 years old born before Jan. 1 2025 as away to address the gap for children not in the age group Congress targeted. Dell's money goes to US zip codes with average incomes below $150,000. This is a recognition by the Republican DJT administration that many lower income children are being left out in the economic growth US has experienced in the last decade, approaching the problem from a different angle than the Democrats.

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Feldstein says GDP growth was smaller than the 1.8% that was reported for the 1st quarter of 2011, because two thirds of that 1.8% went into business inventories and not for sales to consumers or final customers. This means final sales growth at an annual rate of 0.6% and actual quarterly increase of 0.15%. With mostly inventory investment and not much response from the consumer he says business cannot be persuaded to hire and invest. A closer look at the numbers shows the growth was in February and March, with declines in April for real wages, durable goods orders and manufacturing production, existing home sales, and in real per capita disposable incomes. Feldstein sees the Obama administration's failure in several areas. The stimulus could not make up in size and structure for the loss of annual consumer spending of $500 billion and loss in housing construction of $200 billion. At $300 billion in 2009 and $400 billion in 2010 it was not enough to fill the huge gap presented by the financial crisis. President Obama allowed the Democratic leadership in Congress to put together a package that while adding to the deficit added less than a dollar to GDP for every dollar of stimulus. The stimulus lacked punch for economic growth as it consisted more of transfers to state and local governments, transfers to individuals, temporary tax cuts for low income people etc. The lack of a plan to reduce the deficit by creating higher uncertainty about future tax rates and interest rates has hurt the economy. The President's health legislation with the cost of $1 trillion over 10 years diverted much needed time, attention and bipartisan goodwill from the core issues of unemployment and the deficit. The Obama administration also did not tackle the housing issue as suggested by Feldstein with specific proposals in the first year of the Obama administration, with very little done to reduce the millions of foreclosures that have kept housing in a prolonged slump. ...

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Ian Talley provides this excellent account of how this drop in oil prices is likely to add to economic growth in major world economies, removing any ambiguity about the positive effect on the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to about $65 from $105 between June and December 2014. The IMF estimates growth in 2015 will increase from 3.1% to 3.5% largely because of the lowering in energy costs. JP Morgan Chase economists see an addition of 0.7% points in global growth in the first half of 2015. ECB president Draghi sees the lower oil prices as an unambiguous positive. Estimates from Rhodium Group show major oil importing countries seeing import bills cut by $500 billion if prices remain low for 6-8 months, with $90 billion going into the U.S. economy. IMF estimate is that only 20% of the drop in oil prices is from lower demand, about 80% from higher fuel efficiency, increased supply using new technologies, decisions by OPEC to lower oil price, increases in supply. Based on estimates by the Rhodium Group, IEA and the IMF, the extra money flowing into the economies of the U.S., Asia and Western Europe from reduced oil import bills, as measured in percentage of GDP is: the U.S. 0.5%, Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. Italy and France and other oil importing countries benefit. The impact comes at a time when Japan, China, India and eurozone economies badly needed a boost after significant slowdown in growth in 2014. It could not have come at a better time and because it is technologically driven as in the case of highly fuel efficient automobiles and new oil exploration technologies, a self sustaining process. The corresponding impact for oil exporters is: Russia -4.7%, Nigeria -5.4%, Venezuela -10.2%....

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The squeeze on consumers and consumer spending in Britain as wage growth cannot keep up with the consumer price index from 2007 to 2013. A widening gap between average wages and the consumer price index. Basic items such as potatoes, milk, butter, ham, eggs, apples, pork and other food items have gone up much faster in price compared to wages. From 2007 to 2013 basic food staples such as butter are up 99%, potatoes 148%, apples 56%, ham and eggs 50%, milk 31%, pork sausage 37%. Gasoline up 40%. The gap between average wages and the consumer price index has steadily increased since 2010 when Cameron and the Conservatives took office and the austerity measures were introduced to cut the deficit. Upto that time wages kept up with the consumer price index except for a period during the 2008 financial crisis, according to information from the UK Office of National Statistics. Government figures show wages up 1.1% for the 2nd quarter of 2013, much less than half the rate of inflation of 2.8% in July. The household saving ratio is forecast to drop from 7% in 2012 to 3.5% in 2013, and Britons are dipping into savings to pay for basics, according to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. The House of Commons library compiled data shows average hourly wages down by 5.5% in real terms in Britain since mid-2010. Weak consumer spending hurts economic recovery and hopes of cutting the deficit. In the Bank of England's minutes for the August meeting policy makers said consumption growth cannot occur without increase in household incomes. ...

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Analysts point out that there is not much room for austerity cuts in Italy and Spain without cutting into muscle. This is because these countries have moved to make austerity cuts much earlier. Their budget deficits are actually less than what they were when they joined the euro currency zone. In the case of Italy the budget is actually in surplus, to the amount of 2% of GDP, when the financial position excludes interest on debt. And Italy has now moved to reduce the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2011. Under pressure from the ECB Italy has announced its aim of balancing the budget by 2013. Because both Italy and Spain have growth rates estimated at below 1% for 2011, analysts believe it is important to emphasize growth.