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The Commerce Department report shows personal consumption expenditures price index, an inflation guage preferred by the U.S Fed increased by 0.9% in Feb. 2014 over the prior year month. Inflation excluding food and energy costs was at 1.1% in Feb. 2014. This is well below the Fed's 2% target for 22 consecutive months.

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Proposed ideas being considered at the EU headquarters in Brussels include the European bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), being made a bank with funding from the European Central Bank. The EFSF would be able to buy the bonds of Spain and Italy in primary and secondary markets alongside private buyers. As an alternative the ECB would be able to buy Spanish and Italian bonds directly. Here the problem is keeping private investors in the market given the large financial needs of Spain and Italy. In the restructuring of Greece's government bonds the ECB took the position that it would subordinate the claims of private investors in Greece's government bonds and not take loss. Concerns of private investors could be addressed by the eurozone governments giving an explicit indemnity to the ECB to cover any losses suffered in the purchase of Spanish and Italian bonds. Both steps, the direct purchase of Spain's and Italy's bonds by the ECB or through the EFSF would mean doing something that is not in the ECB's charter- the financing of government debt- and would be done cautiously and only in a crisis situation. The caution would also be motivated by the need to ensure there is action to improve the competitiveness of Spain, Italy and other eurozone countries through specific measures, and no backtracking bygovernments....

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Dart Management, a vulture fund based in the Cayman Islands, received 90% of the 436 million euros bond payment by Greece on May 15, 2012. Dart is one of the holdout investors who did not participate in the Greek debt restructuring deal. It planned to sue the Greek government. This has implications for the other holdout investors with about 6-7 billion euros of Greek bonds. The reason given by the Greek government was that this caught Greece at a bad time- suing Greece could have tied up European bailout funds that Greece needs to make interest payments on its debt. The timing is bad from another standpoint, as it will further exacerbate voter discontent with the parties associated with the government just before the second Greek elections in June 2012.

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This report in the WSJ points out that president Trump's much hyped infrastructure plan is not the $1.5 trillion federal spending plan as reported, but more in the range of $200 billion over a decade. This means fixing the crumbling infrastructure in transport, energy and water systems remains uncertain under the Trump administration, and will leave this problem to a future administration to tackle. Jakab cites the basket of 10 infrastructure stocks that lag behind the broader market in Feb. 2018. Further evidence cited is the ratio of four to one of nonfederal money to federal money under the Trump infrastructure plan, and that much of the nonfederal  money has to come from state and local governments than private entities.  Additional problem is that with the tax cut leading to a growing federal budget deficit, rising bond yields would make borrowing more costly for state and local governments.  About $100 billion will be needed for the Highway Trust Fund over the next decade to keep it solvent. Jakab of the WSJ sees overall spending stagnant, with the $100 billion Trump Incentives program for infrastructure offset by cuts elsewhere. Bottom line the revenue side is absent making this more hype than substance for much needed infrastructure spending, that is once again being postponed in America. ...

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By offering the prospect of higher returns in a low return environment venture capital firms are raising new funds at the highest rate in 15 years in 2016. Venture Capital firms have raised about $13 billion in the first quarter of 2016 from pension funds, endowment funds, and other sources, with about 50% of the funds going to about 7% of the total number of firms, according to Venture Source- including $2 billion to Accel Partners, other firms are Andreeson, Founders Fund, Kleiner Perkins. The returns for ten years from venture capital are about 11% compared to 6.8% for S&P 500 index, according to Cambridge Associates. Usually the fund capital raising lags behind market downturns. Much of the returns for some of the startups are not reflected in cash inflows with returns being large on paper, and startup financing has increased for firms, resulting in capital shortages and more fund raising in the industry.

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Spain and Italy's 10 year government bonds yield declined to 3.2% in April 2014, compared to 2.68% on U.S. 10 year government bonds and 1.56% for German 10 year bonds. This is a far cry from the dark days of 2012 when these yields for Italy and Spain hovered at 7-8%. Italian bonds reached a peak in Nov. 2011 of 7.408% and yields declined to 3.221% on April 8, 2014, according to Tradeweb. Spain's bonds reached a peak of 7.637% in July 2012 and declined to 3.204% on April 8, 2014.

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China's Finance Ministry is having a difficult time controlling local governments using local government financing vehicles to invest in more infrastructure, airports roads and subways. One such city is Wuhan which plans six subway lines, three bridges over the Yangste river and a new airport. Much of the money comes from land sales. The Finance Ministry in a 2013 report pointed to the unreliability of land sales for future borrowing as the property market is slowing, and because it is highly unpopular to requisition land for land sales. This matters because the IMF says debt is growing faster in China than when Japan, South Korea and the U.S. fell into deep recessions at different times between the late 1980's and 2009. Local government debt accounts for one fourth of the increase in China's domestic debt since 2008. New rules by China's bond agency in Dec. 2014 prevents investors from using low grade debt to borrow cash. In the past local governments found a way around the central governments effort to curb growth of debt by restructuring the local government vehicles or some other way, as Wuhan has done. Wuhan Urban is the local government financing vehicle for Wuhan and its debt increased by 20% in 2013. Wuhan's mayor, Tang Liangzhi, is pushing construction to the point where he is known as Mr. Dig, Dig. One reason for China's slowing growth below 6-7% is the need to control the growth of debt. Local government debt in China reached 36% of GDP in 2013, double the figure in 2008, and will increase to 52% of GDP in 2019, according to the IMF. And the increase is not proportionally delivering the same results as before. JP Morgan estimates that over 4 units of borrowing are needed in 2015 for every unit of investment, compared to less than 2 units of borrowing for every unit of investment in 2007. PRC Macro Advisors of Hong Kong says half of the borrowing by financing vehicles goes to pay interest on existing debt in 2014. There are 8000 such local government financing vehicles in China today each competing to build infrastructure in its neighborhood, in the case of Wuhan to build a computing back office for financial companies and as transportation hub, even though its uncertain whether this will be realized or not. The problem is that alternative investments as an opportunity cost are being neglected, the hospital not being built as China's population ages with underinvestment in health care, and the private company with better returns that is unable to find financing. A classic example of crowding out of better return investments as a glut of housing and road/bridge/ airport infrastructure gets built. The central government is wary but faced with slowing growth pushes problems down the road, what experts call a Japan syndrome....

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Moody's lowered Italy's credit ratings by two notches from A3 to Baa2, putting it two levels from junk territory. Moody's views are that Italy was subject to increasing deterioration in market confidence with contagion from Spain, as Spain may need more support and its banking system is likely to have more losses than expected. Moody's also sees diminished overseas investments in Italy. Its assessment is for a 2% decline in GDP in 2012. High debt levels and significant funding needs in 2012-2013 are also taken into account in this rating.

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Shinzo Abe and the LDP won a landslide victory in Japan's Dec. 2012 elections. Shinzo Abe was the first prime minister of Japan born during the post war period when he became prime minister in 2006. He is less influenced by the legacy of the pre-war period and war period. Abe is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, Commerce and Industry minister during the war, and prime minister when Japan signed the security treaty with the U.S. in 1960. His father was foreign minister, making him one of the rare politicians with a deep family history in Japan's government. Their views also influenced his own. Kishi is committed to changing Article 9 in Japan's constitution which limits the role of the military, and renounces the right to wage war. His 2006 book "Toward a Beautiful Nation," describes some of his views.

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This piece in the Economist magazine points out why people in Portugal, Spain and Italy resent the remarks of Dutch finance minister, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, current head of the Eurogroup council of finance ministers, In an intervew with Germany daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he said he was proud of the solidarity shown by northern European countries with the southern ones, but solidarity he said means obligations- " I cannot spend all my money on schnapps and women, and then ask for your support."  It also points out that Dijsselbloem's Labor Party lost three fourths of its seats in the recent Dutch elections and so is an unrepresentative presence in the Eurogroup. By supporting austerity policies in a coalition with a centre right party the Labor Party lost most of its seats. Dijsselbloem did this in the EU with strict rules for Italy for injecting money to recapitalize its banks and increase growth that have hurt Italy, and earned the resentment of Mr. Renzi, says the Economist magazine.He may even be replaced by an official from Spain or another southern European country, says the magazine. In any case it does little for EU unity at a sensitive time, and was a serious mistake. The timing was even worse, as the EU faces a test in elections in France and Germany, after Netherlands, and needs popular perceptions to be positive about what has been achieved since the dark days of 1945. ...

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The Spanish government said on May 23, 2012 that it will provide 9 billion euros to help Bankia cover capital provisions for bad loan losses. The government took control of Bankia in early May 2012. Bankia was formed by merging 7 troubled cajas savings banks. It has about 10% of Spain's loans and deposits. Bankia has the largest exposure of financial institutions in Spain to real estate loans. Of 37.52 billion euros in loans for real estate, about half or 17.85 billion euros are troubled loans. Spain's approach to the banking crisis from the real estate bubble was to merge failing banks with smaller amounts of government money as aid, and having the new entities raise cash through initial public offerings. For Bankia most of the nonperforming loans were separated and placed in BFA, the parent company. Bankia did an IPO in July 2011 raising 3 billion euros. Since the IPO Bankia has lost half the value in its share price for large losses to investors. Under new capital provisioning rules set by the government for banks to adequately cover nonperforming real estate loans, Bankia needs 7.1 billion euros. An additional 1.9 billion euros is needed for capital requirements for a total of 9 billion euros, which is the amount of the capital injection by the Spanish government. Finance minister Guindos told parliament that the rest of the Spanish banking system can withstand adverse scenarios....

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China shifts its policy to allow 3 children per family after it sees the percentage of people in the population over 60 rising. This WSJ report show that the policy shift is being followed by changes in policies related to education with more equitable educational resources and reduced expenditures for education for families. Policies that were seen as making families hesitant to have more children.  Changes of the Mao era policy of one child, one family, are very recent. Not till 2013 has this policy changed, since its implementation after the Communist Party took over mainland China in 1949. In 2013 the government allowed families to have 2 children if one of the parents was an only child, and two years later in 2015 the policy was changed to allow 2 children per family. Only half of Chinese couples are willing to have 2 children, according to a study by the state backed All China Women's Federation. A once in a decade census shows 12 million babies born in China in 2020. In 2016 there were 17.9 million births. China's leaders noticed a change in the census for people over 60 as a percentage of the population, which was growing much faster than imagined from 13.3% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2020.  The perception of experts and Chinese couples in their thirties shows that the policy is seen as not enough to convince young couples to have another child. Typical is the situation of one parent cited in this report, a Beijing father of two. He says the policy has changed but it does not mean that he would have another child. He says it takes a lot of money and energy to take care of another child. It also affects the standard of living and education of the two children as he has already moved to a new 2 bedroom apartment to be near top schools in the Chinese capital. Another facet of this development is women in China postponing children to pursue their careers. Government policy is now to raise the retirement age with fewer people of working age to support the senior population. The percentage of the population of working age 15 to 59 years dropped from 70% in 2010 to 63% in 2020. Fewer people for working at Chinese factories and manufacturing. China's retirement age is now 60 for men and 50 for women, giving the government room to do this by bringing it up to western levels that are much higher in the US and Europe.   ...

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The 2014 budget for Spain is free of the strong austerity measures, cuts in spending, and tax increases, of earlier budgets. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2014, after 1.3% decline in 2013. The unemployment rate is set to decline from 27% high in first quarter of 2013, to 25.9% in 2014. Savings of $800 million euros will come from changes in the pension system and civil servants face a freeze in salaries for the fourth year. The premium over German government bonds for Spain's government bonds is now less than that of government bonds of Italy. Cost of financing Spain's debt is projected to decline by 5.2% to 36.6 billion euros, according to Treasury minister Montero. The EU with the backing of the IMF has considered the high unemployment in Spain in its decision to relax deficit targets. This has given Spain an opportunity to clean up its accounts without further damage to the economy. Spain's deficit will now decline to 6.5% in 2013 from a deficit of 6.8% in 2012. The target for the deficit is set at 5.8% for 2014. Credit is still tight and consumer spending weak, major concerns for the government- in addition to the need for creating jobs- of prime minister Rajoy....

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How a new financing mechannism with a private-public partnership is helping India sole severe infrastructure problems when government deficits make public financing inadequate to meet India's needs. Note that the IPO for GMR Infrastructure which has the contract to develop Delhi's airport was fully subscribed on the first day it opened, July 31, 2006. GMR hoped to raise $170-200 million through that issue. Private investment comes from loans from India's public sector banks which are flush with cheap money. Crisil , a rating agency, is quoted as stating that lending by banks to infrastructure projects has grown from 2% to 15.5% in 7 years to 2005. Financing through the corporate bond market for infrastructure projects is something that has not been tackled so far.

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After a severe financial crisis that could have snowballed into a Depression type situation and the credit rating agencies playing their critic-for-hire role in causing the crisis, there has been very little done to reform or correct the basic way in which credit ratings are made. Other than small patches to the system that failed the country badly by 2008, it has been left alone by Congress, the Obama administration, and regulatory agencies. The Attorney General of Ohio, Richard Cordray, says the "rating agencies total disregard for the life's work of ordinary Ohioans caused the collapse of our housing and credit markets and is at he heart of what's wrong with Wall Street today." Richard Blumenthal, Connecticut's Attorney General says he plans to join the suit against the credit rating agencies, Fitch, Standard and Poors and Moody's. Cordrays suit was filed Nov. 20, on behalf of Ohio's pension funds. It seeks billions of dollars in damages from these ratings agencies and accuses the agencies of negligence and fraud. About the failure of Congress to make even the basic change to the system of ratings, Joseph Grundfest, a professor of securities law at Stanford says ; "What you see in these bills are Botox shots, for a little while everyone is going to be frozen into a grin, and then the shots are going to wear off.'' A deputy dean at Yale Law School, Jonathan Macey, was a member of a bipartisan task force on credit ratings reform and met with lawmakers in Congress on this issue. He says its mortifying to see that this problem which is different from other complicated issues like water shortages around the world has been left unsolved, as it could be easily solved if there was even a basic degree of political will to do so. Congress looked at the option of creating an independent fee financed credit rating agency along the lines of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, established after the Enron, but did nothing with this idea. Rep. Kanjorski and Senator Reed have led the efforts to look at the credit ratings agencies in Congress and have basically decided this to leave the system very much the same as before the crisis, with the conflict of interest problem and incentives to improve profitability at the expense of the integrity of the ratings process still intact. Bills in Congress give more oversight powers to the S.E.C. and require companies to strengthen their compliance teams. In the period leading to the 2008 crisis the internal compliance teams did not get top management support at the credit rating agencies and there is skepticism about the effectiveness of compliance teams. S.E.C. regulatory efforts face push-back from the credit ratings agencies and the effectiveness of S.E.C. regulatory supervision is uncertain given the critical role that is given to credit ratings in bond and securties issuance....

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Criticism of the US Federal Reserve's $600 billion quantitative easing decision and Bernanke's defense of the Fed's decision. Bernanke says this is no different than other moves in monetary policy made by the Fed, and the aim is to address deflationary trends and unemployment.

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Experts view the behaviour of 10 year Treasury yields at different periods following the 2008 financial crisis. Twice in early 2010 and early 2011 there were signals that the economy was not so weak before faltering, each time 10 year Treasury yields went up to 3.75-4% before going down to the 2.24% level. This situation appears to be happening again in 2012 with rates dropping in the first quarter to between 1.82%- 2.11%. The yields on 10 year Treasury jumped again, this time to 2.39% on March 19, 2012, as the eurozone crisis fears and U.S. economic growth fears subsided for the time being.