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Derivatives were touted as ways to manage risk and to help grow amodern economy. But compensation of 370 derivative traders who are the few who know what they put into these complex contracts, so they are the ones who know how t best unwind them, raises anumber of questions. Are derivatives pushed because its highly lucrative for the few traders who write them? Haven't derivatives proved that they can be highly dangerous instruments on the downside, with unlimited risks that are ultimately borne by the taxpayers? Consider that the $165 million is only part of the $450 million in bonuses to 370 employees in the FInancial Products unit at AIG. Of this $55million has already been paid out. And there is an additional $230 million still to be paid out. One of the things that stands out most is how everyone involved with these financial innovations for a modern economy, and the pushing of different financial products, makes a lot of money with risks that are passed on down the line and end up in the taxpayers lap. It has proven that transparency, prudence and safety are tests for financial innovation just as they are for financial markets in general, and that excessive compensation leads to distorted self-interested presentation of the facts of the matter, and ultimately perversion of stable processes in the financial system....

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Greece announced a speeding up of its privatization plans to sell 50 billion euros worth of state assets over 5 years after pressure from Germany and other EU members. Greece will sell 5.5 billon euros of assets in 2011 up from a target of 2-4 billion euros.It will sell stakes in a state owned bank, in Hellenic Postbank, in 2 state owned water utilities, in Hellenic Telecommuncations, and a state gambling monopoly.

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The sharp decline in the value of the ruble combined with high interest rates is having a serious impact on Russia's automobile industry. Major foreign manufacturers are cutting production and laying off workers. Foriegn automakers have raised prices by as much as 56%, according to PwC. Avtovaz, majority owned by Renault and Nissan, cut its workforce by 12,000 in 2014 own to current level of 50,000, and an additional 1100 layoffs are planned for 2015. Volvo Trucks and General Motors plan to suspend production later in 2015. The decline is also reflected in sales of consumer appliances and computers. Popular imported notebook computer prices surged by as much as 54% in Jan. 2015 compared to Oct 2014, according to Yandex.

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A dwindling supply of basic smaller models and higher new car prices that peaked with shortages in the supply chain in 2022 are still problems in 2023, says this report in WSJ. Car manufacturers and dealers have not increased the supply of new cars. Higher interest rates and higher prices have led to a situation where car leases can run on an average car to $736 compared to $585 2 years before. This report also says new cars will run you an average of $51,000 up 30% over 2 years. The situation is really bad for buyers compared to the situation before the pandemic, after problems in the supply chain and profit seeking by car dealers. One lower income buyer cited here during the pandemic ended up with a lease of a basic Toyota Corolla for $500 with $236 in insurance payments costing $736 a month that was almost as much as her payment on rent, leaving little in savings or for other expenses. A significant part of inflation today can be attributed to the higher price of cars that constitute basic transportation for the large majority of buyers. Profit seeking behavior of carmakers and car dealers makes the situation that much worse as dealers seek to preserve the high profit margins of the last 2 years, that were the highest in a long time. ...

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Norway has stepped up to meet Europe's need for oil and gas. About one third of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Norway. After the war started Norway increased gas exports by 8% in 0223 shipping more of it by undersea pipelines to Northern Europe. This increased oil and gas exports from $25 billion in 2021 to $125 billion in 2022. Like Saudi Arabia the government owns not only the oil and gas fields but also has large stakes in the companies that extract oil and gas. For a small country bordering Russia with 5.5 million people this put it in a higher status to meet Europe's plea for energy so that it could heat homes and would not have to shut down some of its industrial capacity. And it left no stone unturned to do this. Petoro CEO Kristin Kragseth says that we knew that Norway was always important but we did'nt realize how much. Petoro made $50 billion in 2022 almost three times what it made in 2021. Another of Norway's oil companies Equinor made $75 billion in adjusted earnings in 2022. Political sentiment has shifted too so that climate change that was a priority still is but Norway is willing to increase production for a few years to meet needs of Europe.     ...

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Did you know that 2.3 billion cycling tourism trips are taken in Europe each year according to the European Parliament? French cycling enthusiast and sports writer Claude Droussent, 65, puts together Cycling Atlas Europe, a book showing 350 one day cycling trips one can do in Europe. This follows Cycling Atlas North America also published by Rizzoli that he did with Greg Le Mond. It is intended to give people a chance to discover new places in a short few hours bike ride from where they are in a nature setting along mountainous terrain or along the coast. It is both adventure travel and discovery that is becoming popular after Covid. An app Strava provides an opportunity to talk to people who know about each ride.

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Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck says Germany has plans to almost completely end Russian energy imports by the end of the year. For this to happen Germany has to make extensive progress in cutting oil imports in a short time. By the end of summer the Russian energy imports will be cut by half. The effort is significant because before the invasion of Ukraine Germany received 50% of its coal, 55% of its gas, and 35% of its oil from Moscow. Coal deliveries will end by the end of autumn. 

Habeck confirmed that current contracts with Russian companies to import energy will not be renewed. He also confirmed that Russian gas deliveries will take longer to be stopped- not till mid-2024.

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 After a landslide win in the recent election with 56% of the vote, Gabriel Boric, 36 years, will work for a fair deal for ordinary Chileans. His win comes after years of street protests calling for a fair deal including pensions, transport services, and better income distribution. The protests called for writing a new constitution to replace the one written by dictator Pinochet. Chile has grown increasingly polarized with younger generation favoring change and fairness and many of the older generation favoring the system left by dictator Pinochet.

Chile is described as an economic success story but it is a highly unequal society with 1% of the people owning 25% of the wealth, and about half of the people seen as economically vulnerable, says this report in The Guardian.

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EU leaders, the ECB and the European Financial Stability Facility, in negotiations for a "selective default" for Greece. The ECB is persuaded to accept a selective default, with one option being to protect ECB from losses by the EFSF buying 50 billion euros of Greek bonds at cost price. Another concern of ECB about contagion is being addressed through a statment that this is designed only for Greece because "of its exceptional situation." A draft document under discussion by EU leaders has a plan for cutting the interest rates on Greece's bailout loans from 5.5% to 3.5% and doubling the repayment period to 15 years. EU officials see giving Ireland and Portugal the same interest rates on their bailout loans. The high interest rates and the shorter maturities made earlier plans unworkable. Private investors are encoraged but not required to exchange their old Greek bonds for new bonds with maturities of upto 30 years. Also being discussed is a buyback of Greek bonds at a heavy discount to face value at which they are trading. EFSF will also get new powers to make bailout loans on a precautionary basis. EFSF would also have powers to lend to eurozoe governments to help recapitalize banks and buy back bonds from other countries....

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The debate in parliament on the no-confidence motion against the Modi government in India. The speech made by Congress president Rahul Gandhi criticized the Modi government for crony capitalism and the lack of transparency in the Rafale aircraft deal. The motion of no-confidence was initiated by the TDP, Telegu Desam Party in the state of Andhra Pradesh.  It was defeated with 325 against and 126 in favor of which the Congress party had 65.

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To cut the deficit estimated at 5.5% of GDP, the Indian government is cutting fuel subsidies. It is reducing the $5.6 billion spent on fuel subsidies. About $4.4 billion is also is spent on subsidies by state owned energy companies. Prices for gasoline will rise only moderately by 3.5 rupees a liter to about 55.7 rupees a liter. This should improve the situation for state owned energy companies and for private sector companies like Reliance and Essar.

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Prof. Scott Kennedy of the Research center for Chinese Politics and Business, voices concerns of experts who think that the $585 billion stimulus and the doubling of lending this year, increase in exports by a third last month, all point to an economy that is expanding too quickly. Kennedy says that no one defies economic laws, that eventually endless growth can get get you in trouble. The concern is whether the overexpansion of credit and the size of the stimulus may have led to overreaction in stimulus spending. People's Daily newspaper of China said that China's leaders are moving much faster than leaders of developed nations. But the flip side of this is that in the rush to increase spending there may be a lot of wasteful spending resulting in many bad loans a few years from now.

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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Starting in 2009 Samsung's investment in R&D exceeded the same investment by competitors Sony and Panasonic. By 2011 this gap had widened, as Samsung spent $8.7 billion on R&D in 2011, Panasonic $6.6 billion and Sony $5.5 billion for their fiscal years. This is a result of Samsung's having captured a larger portion of the market and profits in recent years. In the U.S. Samsung has 50% of the market for LCD television sets. Now Sony and Panasonic have reached an agreement to join together their efforts for production technologies to produce OLED television sets, the next generation technology for television. Sony and Panasonic are also working on changing their mindset that focussed on technological advancement and less on delivering consumer friendly technology at attractive price points. Sony developed the first e-reader in 2004, and developed the first OLED set in 2007. But the e-reader lacked the software capabilities of the e-readers developed later by Amazon and Apple. For OLED the production technology was lacking for Sony to produce it at commercially viable prices for mass production. Now Sony prefers to let S. Korean competitors take the lead, and hopes to come from behind by combining critical areas of technological development with Panasonic. Samsung and LG Electronics will bring new 55 inch OLED sets to the market in late 2012. Panasonic and Sony have new CEO's who are faced with developing strategies for a rebound. Panasonic CEO, Kazuhiro Tsuga, is keen on changing the mindset of the company back to the consumer. He told a news conference recently: "Japanese firms are too confident about our technology and manufacturing prowess. We lost sight of the products from the consumer's point of view."...

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The trend in retailing to lower priced stores in a weak economy with the change of 560 Limited Too stores aimed at fashion conscious preteens to the lower priced Justice brand. The Justice brand is priced about 20% below the Limited Too brand.

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Here is the answer to how retailing is doing in February 2009. See the graph. By type of store, Discount stores have held up with 2.9% increase, drug 1.6% decrease, Apparel 5.5% decrease, Department stroes 9% decrease. Of the discounters Walmart is up 5.1%, Target is down 4.1%; of Department stores Macy's down 8.5%, Penneys 8.8%, Saks and Neiman Marcus down 26 and 21%; and in Apparel stores Gap is down 12%, Abercrombie and Fitch down 30%, and Aerospatiale up 11%.

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WSJ's Leubsdorf looks at the job market in 2015, and the March 2015 employment figures from the Labor Department. March 2015 figures shows seasonally adjusted 126,000 jobs added for the month. The average for each month in the 1st quarter of 2015 based on revised figures is 197,000 jobs added. This is down from the average of 324,000 jobs added each month for the 4th quarter of 2014, and similiar to the 1st quarter of 2014 when economic activity contracted. Economic growth has slowed from the 5% pace in the 3rd quarter of 2014, 2.2% in the 4th quarter, to a projected 1.2% by Macroeconomic Advisers for 1st quarter 2015. Economists see the gains from lower oil prices already having taken place for consumers, but layoffs still taking place in the oil and mining industries. The mining sector lost 30,000 jobs in the 1st quarter 2015, with 11,000 in March 2015. Manufacturing job losses as a result of the strong dollar and lower exports also lie ahead in the next 3 quarters of 2015, suggesting a weaker job picture than earlier anticipated based on 4th quarter 2014 job creation. The unemployment rate remains at 5.5% for March, but the true picture of the labor market is reflected in the unemployment rate that includes people working parttime who want full time jobs, which is at 10.9% for March. The labor force participation rate remains at its low level, going down slightly to 67.8%, and Americans out of work for over 6 months remains high at 29.8% of 8.6 million unemployed for March 2015....

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About 2.6 million eligible to vote people in Michigan and 3.5 million in Pennsylvania, and 1.3 million in Wisconsin did not vote in the 2016 election. The critical states this time are also Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and these three states went to the winner by less than 10,000 in Michigan, 20,000 in Wisconsin and 50,000 in Pennsylvania.  A NYT analysis of Census Bureau data for 2016 election reveals that most of these people who are eligible but do not vote have lost interest in both parties that show little interest in delivering for them. Many of them are shown to be lower income voters, voters doing 2 jobs, or voters struggling financially. Some are single child parents in today's social structures. Getting a small portion of this vote can make a difference in a close election.  From 1840 to 1900 the percent of voting age population that voted has been between 70 to 80%. By the 1920's this dropped to about 50%. And it has been around 55% since the period of the Great Depression except for elections in 1952 and 56 for General Eisenhower and 1960 for John Kennedy. Even Harry Truman's whistlestop train campaign in 1948 got only 51% out to vote. Even the Roosevelt FDR three campaigns in 1932, 1936 and 1940 got 52-58% of voting age population to vote. The highest of any election was the election that led to the Civil War in which Lincoln won where 81% of the voting age population voted. Is it possible that America was a relatively much more prosperous country in the period 1840-1900 before large scale immigration from poorer parts of Europe and then poorer parts of Latin America and Asia, and large scale urbanization. With ample land and independent farmers in the nineteenth century leaving less scope for the poverty that exists in urban areas and social decay in rural areas and small towns that is seen today. Resulting in a much more civic consciousness and awareness of America's future and destiny than exists today. By comparison voter turnout in India has increased to 66% in 2014 election and 67% in 2018 after alternating high and low between 50-60% since 1947. Some forecasts are for a high turnout in the U.S. in 2020 to exceed 60%. The bright side for democracy is shown by the 911 million people who voted in the last Indian election of 2018. ...

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The European Union is drafting a ban on oil imports from Russia, says this report in the NYT. The European Union now pays Russia about $1 billion every day for oil imports from Russia. Under chancellor Merkel Germany actually increased its dependence on Russian natural gas from 36% during Russian annexation of the Crimea to 55% today. In this way creating some of the conditions that emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine, creating over 4 million refugees and immense destruction. Oil revenues of this magnitude of about $1 billion a day from the European Union help finance and prolong the invasion with enormous cost of human life. The longer the war lasts it affects a grain producing region in Ukraine that would lead to world food scarcity and famine.

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"My economic plan is working and we are just getting started," says president Biden about the US economy as it registers growth of 2.4% in the second quarter. Inflation is cut to 3% from about 9% last year. Even US central bank Fed increases in rates by 5 percentage points since March 22 at consecutive bank meetings has not slowed down the US economy enough. Biden says there is nothing accidental about this. Biden pushed investment in the US. Business investment increased by 56% in the last quarter accounting for a third of the economic growth, much of it in infrastructure, in bridges and roads, in manufacturing plants. Biden administration has allocated $299 billion in infrastructure funding for projects, another $503 billion is done by private investment. And more is coming down the pipeline.

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Levelling up is proving to be a false promise of the Conservatives. Where the money is coming from and how much and where it is going answers the question in America for Biden. Fair taxation is key, a strong economy is key for Biden. Fair taxation supports trillions in public investment that in turn generate private investment. In the second quarter of 2023 business investment was up 56% in Biden America, about $1 trillion with more in the pipeline.  The Conservatives fail on both and have no plan for step by step action that fits needs and opportunities in the economy as Biden has. Getting equal share of the fruits of labour to all Britons is never going to happen under trickle down economics of the Trump or Tory kind. That much is clear as daylight.

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A 40 year old sailor from Normandy accomplishes an utterly mind boggling feat- sailing alone from the western coast of France across the Atlantic to the Cape of Good Hope in 19 days, to the Atlantic at Cape Leeuvin in 29 days, then on to Cape Horn at the tip of Argentina and Chile in 43 days, from there to the Equator in 56 days, and the last leg back up the Brittany coast of France., around the world in 64 days. He wins the 10th edition of Vendee Globe, a non stop non assisted race around the world, and does this for a second time. A heroic tribute to ancestors Cartier and Champlain who sailed to Quebec and to Africa and the east from the coast of Brittany from the 1530's.

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It is less expensive to live in your own home than in assisted living. It is also a familiar environment many prefer. This article goes over the changes needed to be made in modifying the house so that it can be a good place for living the years after one is over 65 years age. This includes getting rid of many things that cause clutter and reduce safety, and putting in place safeguards to improve mobility inside the house and prevent falls.

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El-Erian points to the risks posed by the long term unemployed in the U.S. He cites the 43.9% of the unemployed or 5.5 millon people out of work for 27 weeks or more. In fact the U-6 measure for unemployment that includes the people who have quit looking for work and parttime workers is abetter indication of where things are. This was an estimated 11% in November 2011, according to Ed Luce in the Financial Times, cited by Klein in the Washington Post.