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Serge Galam says in this NYT piece that abstention can affect the election in France. He says abstention from the far left voters is likely to favor Marie Le Pen. He says an overall abstention rate of 25% shown in polls can make it possible to have an uncertain result, and that Le Pen may need much less than 50% of the vote if abstentions are high. If 95% of Le Pen voters turn out and less than 61% of Macron voters turn out there is an opening for Le Pen, says Galam.

Another way of looking at this is the disaffection of the electorate with parties in France, with a high abstention vote even if Macron wins, especially on the far left.

 

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Timiraos and Shin provide more evidence in the WSJ that the hopes for generating more revenues from a huge tax cut have proven illusory in the past under Reagan and Bush. The question is whether the tax cuts can make up for the revenue lost through economic growth. In the short term there is a spurt of growth but in the long term this has left a revenue shortfall paid for by higher taxes later on.

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A stunning World Cup 2026 stadium in Monterrey, Mexico, Mexico's business capital in the mountainous north. It is called the Estadio BBVA after the name of the Spanish bank that sponsors it. It overlooks the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains around the city, giving it a nice background. It is 144 miles from the US border and with sweeping vistas of the Cerro de la Silla mountain. Four games will be played here- one of 16 venues for World Cup 2026.  Gills in its futuristic steel exterior enable it to let air in from breezes that blow in so that fans can be cool when it is hot 82-93 degrees F. Local team Rayados play here and  multinational drinks company FEMSA funded the $200 million to build the stadium. Rayados has asked Sergio Ramos of Spain to join and it plays another local team Tigres every year with about 51,000 fans in the stadium. Women's soccer is also popular in Mexico.

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Spain heads back to elections after the Socialist party fails to come to an agreement with the centre right Ciudadanos party or the centre left Podemos party. 

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The first Japanese American to reside permanently in America Kanaye Nagasawa was a samurai from 1864 Edo era isolationist Japan. He left Japan in secrecy at 19 as part of a group on a secret mission to learn science and technology from the West. He eventually settled in Sonoma county, California, and set up the wine industry in the region. BBC series Rediscovered America tell his story and the story of the Japanese Americans in the US.

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Face-Lift, a cosmetic surgery company founded in 2001 in Troy, Michigan, closed operations in 2015. At its peak it was generating $186 million in revenues. With the shift to minimally invasive ways of enhancing beauty and youthful looks, face-lift business has suffered. Of over 15 million procedures, about 13.9 million are for minimally invasive procedures such as chemical peel, 6.7 million for botox injections, and about 0.1 million for face lifts cosmetic surgery. The business also suffered from heavy advertising costs of $1 million a week, using stars such as Debby Boone, and the low number of 2% in responses.

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Early opinion polls show Macron the more convincing candidate in the first television debate held in March with 29 percent in an Elabe poll, with Le Pen at 19 percent. An OpinionWay poll shows Macron more convincing at 24 percent and Le Pen at 19 percent. Polls show Le Pen winning 27 percent of the vote in the first round with candidate Fillon on the right and Melenchon, Hamon on the left splitting the vote. In the second round with two candidates the vote shift of other right and left candidates determines the outcome. The second round then hinges on whether French middle and working class voters see risks to their economic future in leaving the EU, and whether appeals to nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric works enough to draw support from a centrist candidate.

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India will allow automobile imports at 10% duty instead of 110%, allowing 250,000 EU automobiles into the Indian market, as part of the deal that benefits Germany. Tariff on European wines will go down from 150% to 20-40%. Duties on olive oil and processed food such as pasta and chocolates will go down to zero, which will benefit Italy, and Switzerland. A labor mobility agreement will let professional workers and seasonal workers from India into EU and EU to India. New talks will bring India into the EU's Horizon Research Programme.

It will double EU exports to India by 2032 over 6 years when it is implemented starting in 2027. An astonishing 97% of traded goods are included for cutting or eliminating tariffs. It will save EU 4 billion euros in duties, says the EU. Tariffs are cut on a vast arrayof industrial products- iron and steel (India benefits) chemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals (India benefits) and machinery (Germany benefits).

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This report in the Guardian says president Macron's party along with its small ally MoDem could win as many as three fourths of the 577 seats in parliament in the June 2017 election, or about 400-445 seats. The election showed a low turnout of 49%, with abstention highest among supporters of Marie Le Pen of the National Front on the extreme right and Le Melenchon on the extreme left.  A big loser is the Socialist Party which this report estimates losing about 200 seats. Les Republicains the other main party on the right is also a loser, as this report estimates it going from 199 seats to 70-130 seats. The National Front of Marie Le Pen could end up with one seat at worst or just below the threshold of 15 seats from 118 constituencies contested. This is because it faces competition from the right and the left parties for votes in every constitutency, and is kept out by the centre right and centre left coming together. Le Melenchon's France Unbowed is expected to win about 11-23 seats.  In this election young and working class voters stayed away, voters who supported the more extreme left and right wing parties. Chancellor Merkel called it "a vote for reforms." The big majority makes it possible for Macron to get laws to change the labor market to create more jobs, and to make changes to pension and unemployment benefits, so that France's economy can get moving again.  ...

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Mogan McSweeney of Cork Ireland, son of an IRA courier with a politics and marketing degree from Middlesex University, joined the Labour Party in London fighting off Corbyn supporters during the Corbyn leadership till 2019. The Guardian says McSweeney settled on Keir Starmer as the candidate to replace Corbyn as a centrist on the right. It was says the Guardian McSweeney as an organizer against the Corbyn left that installed Keir Starmer in 10 Downing Street. And then by getting Starmer to appoint his mentor Mandelson led to Starmer becoming "the most unpopular prime minister in history." It says May local elections may sound the end of Starmer. McSweeney is blamed for some of Starmer's failure to project a image of firmness as he backtracked on issues on the advice of McSweeney, to the point that many in Labour party thought McSweeney made Labour driverless. As McSweeney ejected all Corbynites from the Labour Party he weakened the party and led to Labour bleeding its vote to the Greens and the Liberals. Labour's got a landslide with many Labour MP's winning by thin margins- its vote was slim only 34% of the vote, itself a warning that something was not right. On immigration the root causes were not addressed till early 2026- the ECHR human rights that needed to be put aside as written with serious flaws and which allowed asylum hotels. This led to a shift to Nigel Farage, called back from retirement to lead Reform UK in 2026 and way ahead of Labour and Conservatives in the polls. Worse 50% of Labour's vote disappeared in 2026 polls by February hardly 2 years after the win in 2024, as the support McSweeney helped organize had no depth of conviction- most of it to Liberals and Greens under Polanski. The result is that even the Guardian is disappointed and says McSweeney installed Starmer as PM and then made him "the most unpopular PM in history." Net favorability in Feb 2026 -57 similar to Sunak of Conservatives in June 2024. A 75% unfavorable rating in Jan 2026. And 14 points below the Labour party in "like" ratings. Only 18% are favorable for Starmer. It shows how a series of British prime ministers with mediocre backgrounds have failed in the country. ...

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Cost of living, of housing and healthcare, with the option of working remotely, is leading to more Americans leaving America for the first time since the 1930's than coming in. It is not just immigration policy discouraging immigration to the US. Middle class and younger Americans are seeing advantages in moving overseas if it costs much less for a better life and you can work remotely. In 2008 Gallup found 1 in 10 Americans wanted to leave, in 2026 1 in 5 want to leave for overseas locations.In 2025 more Americans left the US than came into the US. Estimates vary but one estimate is that in 2025 180,000 natural born Americans chose to leave the US. It is younger families, young people, from the southern US , from the midwest, all over the US, who are choosing to go to Europe or some other country to live and work. The State Department has no idea and does not keep track- it could be between 4 millon and 7 million Americans live overseas. Architects, engineers, professional people, are working out of small towns in teh French Pyrenees, or other parts of Europe.. Portugal - 365 increase inAmeicans in 2025. In a decade Americans living in Czech Republic, Nethelands, Spain, Germany has doubled. One couple profiled here moved to Portugal after preparing for 4 years. Portugal offers visas to stay if one can support himself, herself and family, which is the minimum wage or $27,000., which this couple could show as investment income. They could not find places to stay near good schools in LA because of the cost. Now in central Lisbon they can with $100,000 budget live a richer, fuller life, reduce hours of work, send kids to private school, no need for 2 cars as subways are nearby, and no need to put a ton of money aside every year for college. They have more time to themselves, more relaxed, and kids private school is close by. Today in the US setting aside a ton of money for college makes it difficult on $200,000 a year  in the managerial ranks as shown in reports in the WSJ. College can cost $100,000 a year for 4 years, 2 children $800,000, thats too much.  ...

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President Trump says he is going to delay this year's G-7 summit. He plans to call India, South Korea, Australia and Russia to a new summit talks. Instead of September he would call the meeting of the new G-10 or G-11 with the new countries added after the election, as he says the old set of countries is now outdated. The old set of countries put Canada and Italy ahead of India and Australia, and recently left out Russia.

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The Partido Popular party wins the most votes but loses its parliamentary majority in most of the country's provinces. Ada Colau in Barcelona, and a retired judge Manuela Carmena in Madrid supported by a left wing party, Podemos, are likely to become the new mayors. Spain's ruling Partido Popular party faces national elections in November 2015.

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The CNBC video of Fed chair Jay Powell at his historic visit to Brookings to explain how he plans to tackle inflation for working families and at the same time feel his way through this so that the Fed does not raise rates more than is essential to tackle inflation, so as to bring back those who have left the labor market. The labor participation rate needs to be pushed back up to where it was before the pandemic, and is important for Powell.

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Roger Mosey who worked as Director of BBC News, left BBC News in 2013 and is now the master of Selwyn College, Cambridge. Here he describes the problems the BBC faces and tasks facing it under its new director general, Tim Davie. Mosey sees the need to move power out of London. He is critical of the way the BBC has tended to narrow in its views and its failure to reflect the sentiment in the whole country for Brexit, attitudes towards the European Union, and also in its failure to reflect the sentiment in favor of Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" stance. In recent coverage Mosey says the BBC has not covered both sides of the story in the taking down of statues of Robert Clive to try to educate readers of who he was what happened and why there are different views on this in Britain, opting instead for following what is popular at the moment. He sees BBC as patronizing ordinary Britons who have views that may not coincide with that of people in London who have views on the hard right or hard left. In his view the best way to lose the rationale for BBC license fee is not to educate people on both sides of the story every time. ...

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The alliance between the PRD on the left and the PAN party on the right in Mexico on an anti-corruption platform creates a third option in Mexico after the PRI under president Nieto, and the party of Lopez Obrador. Obrador and the candidate of the PAN/PRD Ricardo Anaya, 38 years, now are level in polls with 32 percent support and the PRI candidate Antonio Meade at 25%. The Nieto administration is tainted with several corruption scandals and about 75% of Mexicans want a change in government, in a Reforma poll. Obrador contested for the PRD in 2006 in a close election, and in 2012 formed his own party. If successful this would be the first time three parties form together to form a coalition government in Mexico, with the Citizens Party joining the PRD/PAN coalition. This is similar to the way in which the left and the right are getting together to topple the old politicians with new younger faces in other countries- including in France, and in Italy in upcoming elections with the left and the right represented in the En Marche movement in France, and in the Five Star Movement in Italy. In Germany a left -right coalition is being put together with the CDU and the Social Democrats coming together on social issues. After state elections in 2016 the opposition winning 3 governorships from ruling PRI, and the election in the state of Mexico where a divided field made it possible for the ruling PRI to hold onto power even after losing 1 million votes, both the PRD and the PAN parties realized the need to come together on an anti-corruption platform. Corruption and rejection of the old politicians bringing in a younger generation into politics is a major issue in many countries. ...

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Venezuela investment of $100 billion by US for oil and dilapidated infrastructure- how it looks 5 months after Venezuela's new government in place. The US president called for $100 billion in investments. The Washington Post looks at the current talks by Chevron, Exxon, ConocoPhillips with the Venezuelan government. It shows how far and how quickly things have changed with the US Treasury account that has KPMG Audit and is intended for the Venezuelan people funds for reconstruction of the economy. US media speculates on many topics - how the orderly transition can be made, how the oil industry can be revived and how the investments can be made for infrastructure that has been neglected and broken down. The main point to remember says Marco Rubio who with his long association with Latin America was instrumental in setting up the strategy to get Venezuelan recovery and public participation in phases by finding leaders who can do this within the existing setup left by Chavez and Chavismo. Delcy Rodriguez was chosen. The main point is that it is only 5 months of 2026 and a lot has been achieved to set the right direction. Not mentioned in the Washington Post is that Delcy Rodriguez is in India this week on a trip that brought her in contact with many Indian leaders to meet India's petroleum needs. What can India do in exchange? As part of a long term plan Venezuela shares the experience of India through colonial rule, and can emerge as a key partner for development of its infrastructure and economic revival along with the US. This will change the dynamic into something different- the US offers not merely the Monroe Doctrine principle in the Western Hemisphere but also can now show what was never possible since 1821 and president Monroe - the opportunity to tie up with the US expanded relationships in Asia, with India and Japan that are supporting a huge transformation for 1.4 billion people in India. It offers Venezuela a tie up of its energy resources with US oil companies technologies, and the infrastructure technologies and labor of Japan and India, digital transforming tech nologies of India and Japan/Taiwan. This offers the potential for real revival in Venezuela and in Latin America that never before existed and is now being put in place.  ...

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Britain's Labour party sees a big opportunity in Scotland with the divided SNP. Mr. Humza narrowly edged out Forbes for leader of the SNP party in the election to replace Nicola Sturgeon. Labour could win 20 seats north of the border putting Mr. Starmer in No.10, say some Labour party leaders. Labour sees that it has been left out of Scotland's parliament and government for far too long with a cost of living crisis and need for public services.

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The WSJ editorial supporting the former WSJ Detroit Bureau chief's position on the editorial pages on November 10, 2008, asking the Bush administration to turn down any request from Congress or the president elect to turn over TARP funds to the automakers. The automakers have problems of not being competitive and making the cars that people want for decades, handing out taxpayer billions will not solve this, and will only postpone the day of reckoning says the WSJ editorial. The union goldplated contracts and things like the Jobs Bank never made sense and neither the union or management acted responsibly. The best thing now it says is to let the shareholders lose whatever value is left, cancell the contracts, and put the companies in government receivership, letting go the old management and the boards that let these companies get to this sorry situation. This is not a time for politics as usual, and if the new administration wants to do it let it do it on its own political dime says the WSJ. ...

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1.2-2 million barrels a day go from Iran's Kharg island through Straits of Hormuz for ship to ship transfers in South China Sea, then labeled Emirati oil and unloaded at refineries on Shandong coast. These refineries are called teapot refineries. In this way US sanctions are avoided. Shipments of oil were about 700,000 barrels a day before 2023. After 2023 this more than doubled. China gets this at a 10-15%  discount costing Iran about a third of revenues it would otherwise be able to sell this oil if it decided to work with the US in a new arrangement. This report in FR24 shows China as limiting it's relations with Iran to oil, careful to not let it affect more important trading relations with US European Union, and Germany. This is similar to the situation for Venezuela -which under a new arrangement the US has with Venezuela- now gets market prices for its oil increasing it's revenues substantially by about one third to benefit the Venezuelan people suffering from high inflation and economy wrecked by sanctions. ...

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Emmanuel Macron faces a challenging situation in  the 2022 second round. He badly needs left wing supporters of Mr. Melenchon who came with one percentage point of right wing Marie Le Pen. Macron had expressed right wing sentiments about immigration and terrorism even more than Le Pen during the year leading upto this election. That this has alienated some left wing supporters is evident in a nIpsos poll for FR24 that shows 30% or about a third of the 22% of the voters that supported former Socialist candidate Jean Luc-Melenchon are likely to vote for Le Pen, who has campaigned on the issue of cost of living and softened her image and position on the European Union. 34% of Melenchon's supporters said they will support Macron and 36% said they are undecided. It is this undecided vote that could make a difference. Add to this the 25% of the voters who did not vote at all and the election depends on who can convince this segment. To reach these voters is Macron's main concern in the 2 weeks before the second round of the election on April 24. Macron says he will campaign hard-"from dawn to dusk, in direct contact with voters." He will have to offer something that convinces working class voters who some see he has humiliated during his first term.  ...

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Iran's economy following the naval blockade- WSJ cites assessment by Miad Maleki who led Treasury's sanctions campaign on Iran in 2025. Loss of $435 million of economic activity per day and oil shut ins in 2 weeks. As the Europeans sit out this naval blockade and US rethinks its participation in NATO, as the poorer countries in the world are affected by the shortages including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and others around the world, the one baffling aspect is how far a nation (Iran)could let its economic prospects be affected to continue uranium enrichment. It is about the failure of another Middle Eastern nation to modernize and improve the living standards of its people, (after Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Syria and Iraq),  wasting a once in a centuries opportunity to do this wasting an oil dividend that will only last to 2035 when renewable energy may replace fossil fuels. Instead leaving the region with intermittent wars and destruction from the wars since 1950, falling behind in a world that is rapidly modernizing in China and India with about 3 billion people committed to modernization. ...

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Growing pressure from within the government from the Green party and the FDP, and from the CDU in the Opposition party, for Chancellor Scholz of the Social Democrats to allow Poland to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine to stall Russian advances. That could lead to a return to peace talks and a settlement is also the idea behind additional military support to Ukraine. Western powers also seek to prevent any further losses on the Ukrainian side and show support after attacks on its electricity infrastructure left most of Ukraine in the dark.

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The growing city of Monterey, Mexico, near the American state of Texas, is facing severe shortages of water as shown in this report in the NYT. Seven years of drought except for 2018 have left the Cerro Prieto and other dams nearby mostly dry. Water is sent in by truck from outside the region. This is an arid region and the lack of rainfall comes at a time when the population is growing in this part of the country, which is the largest industrial state in Mexico.