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A poor opium crop in 2012 is expected to lead to more fighting with insurgents. A similiar situation prevailed in 2010. About 90% of the world supply of opium comes from Afghanistan, and is concentrated in the southern provinces including Helmand.

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Saudis unilaterally cut prices of crude oil without consultation with other members of OPEC at the beginning of Oct. 2014. Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi says there is not much point in talking to other members of OPEC as everyone does as they please. The old cooperation between Gulf states Qatar, U.A.E., Kuwait and Saudi Arabia is breaking down with each country backing different rebel factions against the Assad regime in Syria-Iraq. Ali al-Naimi who normally comes in ahead of the OPEC meetings in Vienna, which meet twice a year, arrived this time at the last minute. He said meetings should be conducted only once a year and consulting can be done remotely. The old style when he guided discussion at OPEC meetings is gone. OPEC now produces about a third of the world's oil, has large spare capacity of 3.8 million barrels a day in 2014 or 4% of global oil supply in a crisis, according to IEA. Yet it faces pressures from the increasing shale production in North America and the decline in demand from Asia. Brent crude is at about $92 in October 2014. OPEC production in August 2014 was split as follows- Saudis 9.6, Iraq 3.0, Iran 3.0, U.A.E. 2.9. Kuwait 2.9, Venezuela 2.3, Qatar 0.7, Libya 0.5, Algeria 1.2, Nigeria 1.8, Angola 1.7 (millions of barrels a day, source: OPEC)...

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The PBOC, China's central bank, injects $65 billion into China's banking system in Dec. 2014 to get banks to increase lending as the economy slows further. Experts say the growth rate is likely to drop below 7%. At the same time the central bank and economic policy makers are concerned about excesssive debt in the economy, shadow banking and local government debt risks. It cut benchmark interest rates by 0.25% in 2014. Other risks are developing as the property market cools off and investors shift investment to equity markets creating a surge of 50% in the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges for 2014. As a result economic policy is not as effective in today's environment.

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Caterpillar will have to writeoff about $580 million for alleged accounting problems at a mine safey equipment company it acquired in June 2012. Caterpillar acquired the Chinese company Siwei for $700 million.

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How the swine flu is affecting Mexico city, which is about 30% of national GDP. Mexico City is operating at only about 30-40% of capacity and the streets are silent, with schools and businesses remaining closed or working at low capacity. GDP was expected by Moody's Economy.com to decline by 4.5% for 2009, now the estimate is closer to 6.2%. The first quarter of 2009 saw Mexico's GDP drop by 8% according to Mexico's cental bank.

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June unemployment numbers will jump say experts at IHS Insight as GM and Chrysler downsize even more to become smaller companies with even less market share. This will reflect closing Pontiac and sale or closing of the other GM brands Saturn, Saab, and Hummer. It will reflect closing of more dealerships of GM and Chrysler. THis might be offset by a pickup in sales if something like the European trading clunkers for new cars program takes off in the USA. But with the US customers more in debt and with rising job losses, the pattern may be different in the US. It may only offer a small boost in sales. Manufacturing still matters in a recovery. In 1980 manufacturing was 20% of America's output, now it is 11.5% says Mark Zandl of Moody's Economy.com. Manufacturing, he says, has a bigger impact than its size suggests, because it responds quickly. As sales resume workers are called back to their jobs. The sharp V shaped recoveries in the early 80's reflected the rapid response of manufacturing. After the 1980's both the declines and the recoveries were shallow in 1990-1991 and 2001. Now with GM and Chrysler shrinking further under the government plan to fix these companies, and taking the supplier impact, the rebound leg of the V is missing. The kick from the Big Three and their suppliers is missing, says Nigel Gault of IHS Insight. Of the 5.7 million jobs lost from Jan 2008 to June 2009, 1.6 million were in manufacturing and 289,000 were in motor vehicles, split almost evenly between assemblers and supplier networks....

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The Fed's Bernanke announces that the Fed will buy $600 billion in short term debt including short term CD's and commericial paper that expires in 3 months or less, the kind of short term debt used by moneymarket funds, to provide liquidity in that market, to ultimately shore up money market mutual funds.

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New offices, making them less awful, (NO-LA) this is the trend says this report in WSJ. Reopened offices are opening on a voluntary basis. How will they attract employees back?  Try sweeping views, new yoga and wellness areas, "tech-free reflection zones,"  more conference rooms. This report looks at spaces by Accenture and other companies. Accenture adds sweeping views of the Hudson river, access to an outdoor terrace. The idea is to act as a pull, rather than a push. Unilever is changing offices into destination spaces where employees will come and work in 40% of the time. Salesforce is moving out desks to add more couches, TV's and whiteboards for teams. More offices are building spaces for 60% collaboration, up from 40% previously. Sanofi in Paris is adding options for breakfast, early dinner.  Other ideas are engagement days if workers are coming in only a few days a month. At Hightower this means one set day in the office a week, two engagement days a month for collaborative work. And workers are allowed to not coming one month a year and work from anywhere they choose.  ...

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Glaxo spent $279 million in the first half of 2008, second only to Pfizer's 462 million. Much of this is televison advertising, which has come under criticism for exaggerating the benefits of drugs and minimizing the risks. Television advertising for prescription drugs is banned in most countries, except for the USA and New Zealand. Now Glaxo CEO, Witty says, Glaxo will do less television advertising than in the past.

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How the Russian aircraft industry is being consolidated to produce a win-win relationship between Europe and Russia- markets, lower costs and R&D for Europe, advances for Russia's aircraft industry and new markets for Russian aircraft in the regional and cargo planes market.

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The U.S. strengthens its forces in the Persian Gulf to keep open the Straits of Hormuz, especially to block any effort by Iran to mine the narrow waters of the Strait. Saudi Arabian oil exports come through this waterway.

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The U.S. unemployment rate drops from 5.8% in Nov. 2014 to 5.6% in Dec. 2014, according to the Labor Department. But hourly earnings failed to register growth. Average hourly earnings declined in Dec. 2014 from the prior month, and increased by only 1.7% over the prior year, just a little bit above the inflation rate of 1.3%. Overall 2.95 million jobs were created in 2014. Yet 8.7 million Americans looking for a job could not find one. The U.S. Federal Reserve officials see tepid wage growth as a sign of slack in the labor market. The Dec. 16-17 Fed meeting minutes show that "most participants saw no clear evidence of a broad based acceleration in wages." The labor force participation rate is also stuck at a low level- 62.7% in Dec. 2014. The U-unemployment rate that includes involuntary part time workers and workers marginally attached to the labor force was at 11.2% in Dec. 2014. This includes workers too discouraged to look for work and people working parttime because they could not get full time work. It is steadily dropping from 16.6% in 2010 to 14.4% by 2012, 13.1% by 2013, and now 11.2% in 2014, showing steady improvement but still high....