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The deep deterioration in U.S. China relations as the U.S. sees itself in a disadvantage in trade with China and the Trump administration imposes tariffs, calls for changing existing supply chains and trade to safeguard U.S. interests. The lack of transparency from China about the coronavirus and the underreporting that led to the U.S. and Europe not taking the threat seriously enough or taking defensive steps is also seen as a part of the deeper problem as the U.S. and Europe bear the brunt of the coronavirus in terms of deaths and cases.  This presents a deeper problem than the trade issue by itself as the U.S. had a trade issue with Japan which was later resolved. The way the Trump administration sees itself as the only protector of U.S. interests in trade, security and international cooperation creates a new level of tensions. Other countries such as Australia, India, Japan, and countries in South East Asia are seen as having similar concerns as supply chains are being remade to reflect the new trading conditions and economic structures. ...

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US and China agree on the first step to a broader trade deal. US offers to take in Chinese students at American Universities, something DJT says he was good with.  “Chinese students using our college and universities,” adding that such attendance has “always been good with me.”  China for its part will not slow move export of magnets and rare earth minerals on which it has established a near monopoly of the supplies. These rare earth minerals are needed for technology products made in the US. US tariffs of 55% will still say in place as "deterrance" that the other side keeps its promises and to cut the trade deficit with China not simply talk about it has has happened for a decade of Bush, Obama, Biden. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Jamieson Greer US Trade Representative were at London talks with Commerce Secretary Howard Luttnick to find ways to get an impasse resolved. Both sides lack confidence in what the other is doing so that theis the first step to clarify the direction of talks for achieving a broader deal.  ...

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Political ads in the 2010 election campaign that point to the loss of jobs to China. A big shift in public opinion on the subject of US-China trade and jobs at home. This will increase pressure on the Obama administration for serious results in the negotiations for the appreciation of the yuan.

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Next five year plan for China calls for more concentration on industry, dominance in key sectors identified by China such as rare earths, and more exports- not less in each of these areas. Chinese Communist Party is very conservative and once this has worked for China it is not going to change its reliance on exports even at the risk of leaving goods unsold in China or oversupply. The result is that the US effort to reduce the trade deficit, trying every tool in the book does not work, leading to an effort to resort to tariffs as a last resort to cut the unhealthy and risky $1 trillion trade deficit China has with the world. Has it worked? WSJ and other reports show that large companies are diversifying their supply channels, only smaller companies without the resources are sticking with China dependence for supplies. The tariffs themselves make headlines yet the US has made careful calculations not to upset relationships with key partners Britain, European Union, and Japan, keeping tariffs low at 10% with EU, and 15% with Japan which exports automobiles to the US to recover some of the years US made concessions to Japan. There are also loopholes on certain products where it is in the US interest to do so. As a result the effective tariff is 10-12.5% not 17-20% shown in reports. Of this 10% what is passed on to consumers is small- as in autos 80% of tariffs are not passed on by auto importers such as Toyota and Subaru because of the higher margins postpandemic. In retail only 30% is passed on again because of the post pandemic higher margins. The administration of DJT has also carefully worked with world oil suppliers to keep oil prices low, lower than in 2023-2024. The result is that inflation is at about 3% in September 2025. The idea that a capricious DJT is doing the tariffs is a myth as careful economic planners including Bessent, Jamieson, Lighthizer, and Luttnick, economic advisors in the Republican party, are carefully articulating the policy with room for DJT's political talk and appeal to public sentiment. ...

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Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...

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U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer was the negotiator who tackled Japan's huge trade surplus in the eighties under president Reagan. In 1985 he was the Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan. He negotiating a trade deal with China that includes U.S. tariffs on Chinese products. Here he tells the incoming Biden administration that the tariffs were a good idea in the American interest, and should remain in place till China reduces the huge trade surplus with the U.S. Lighthizer says "we want a China policy that thinks about the geopolitical competition between the United States and an adversary- an economic adversary." As this report says the cleavage with China has widened since then with the the virus that started in Wuhan, China, then spread to the U.S., killing more than 387,000 Americans and with 23 million people affected by the virus. Lighthizer has serious questions about the approach of the Biden team to seek consultations with allies in Europe and Asia. With his long experience  he is one of the very few who understand how things work. He says the U.S. started dialogues in the 90's. Nothing happened. "All of them were just a waste of time," says Lighthizer. Other countries could slow or veto U.S. actions. This is why the new incoming administration needs to show it has learned from history. In the trade negotiations with Japan the approach taken by Lighthizer worked. The U.S. can only not listen to his advice at its peril. ...

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US census data shows Mexico exported $382 billion worth of goods to the US in 2022, an increase of 20% over 2021, according to US census data. American companies put more money into Mexico for investment than China in 2021. The high shipping costs and 2 weeks vs 2 months of shipping time are part of the reason companies are looking at Mexico as an alternative to China. The trade friction with the US and tariffs are added incentives for companies to shift manufacturing out of China. The shift is gradual as the infrastructure improvements in Mexico lag behind the infrastructure development in other countries in Asia.

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Improvement in the managing of India's trade deficit with China. Merchandise exports from India to China increased from $11.93 billion in 2014-2015 to $21.6 billion in 2021-2022, an increase of 78% over the last 6 years. Imports from China from $60.41 billion in 2014-15 to $94.6 billion in 2021-2022. The trade deficit with China during 2021-2022 is at $73.31 billion compared to $44.03 billion in 2020-2021. Most of the goods imported from India were in equipment and intermediate parts to meet the needs of electronics, telecom and power sectors in India. 

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This Journal editorial which advises patience, comes on the day after the U.S. Senate voted 79-19 to move forward with a bill on sanctions against China for undervaluation of the yuan. The editorial says the Chinese currency has come down 30% since 2005, and inflation in China is reducing the advantage China gains by keeping its currency valuation low. Over time the editorial suggests China will see a decline in trade surpluses similiar to the experience with Japan, and emphasizes the importance of the two leading trading nations U.S. and Britain not repeating the experience of the 1930's with the Smoot-Hawley retaliatory tariffs legislation. The Journal quotes American economic historian Charles Kindleberger: "When every country turned to protect its national private interest, the world public interest went down the drain, and with it the private interests of all."

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Geithner in written testimony to the Senate Finance Committee, stated that "President Obama - backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists- believes that China is manipulating its currency." What is noteworthy is that experts are generally in agreement that something should be done about this in cooperative fashion, from Obama's economic team, Obama's own views on this, The National Association of Maufacturers, Labor and so on. The trade deficit with China has continued at high levels even with the current economic slowdown, so this issue remains as one that the Bush administration never really addressed. Simon Johnson, a MIT Professor, and former IMF Chief economist says that even the IMF has not addressed it, and that the Obama administration needs to call China to account. He says this could lead to a spat with China, and if the US does not back down to a row. The concern has been that China would not buy up Treasury debt the way it has in the past, at the same time the question is whether there is some point where the deficit is so large and the US so dependent on foreign buyers of Treasury debt, that it needs to be addressed on a number of levels. Including addressing currency and fair trade issues, a more rational balanced consumption of everything from oil to goods from lowcost Asian countries, to reduce the toll on the overextended American consumer and on the extent of US borrowing needed. From China's perspective there may also be the same concern about export led growth, which may come to be seen as undependable anyway, because with or without some currency advantage the overextended US consumer is not buying anyway, holding off on purchases of everying from cars to flatscreen televisions. With growth at 6.8% in 4th quarter 2008, according to the Chinese Government Statistics Bureau, and expected to drop to 5% in 2009, the export growth model is no longer the panacea for China's unemployed as it once was at 12-13% growth rates in 2006-2007. In fact it may now look to be a better wiser policy if China had increased the value of its currency even more than its slow gradual approach to slow the growth rate from 12-13% to a more sustainable 9-10%, and lower American imports and lower the American trade deficit. Part of the problem in China was the difficulty of applying any sort of brakes once the local governments were set free to expand as much as they could, and prevented any controls from being effective. Steel production continued to grow even after there was evidence of large overcapacity, and government direction failed. Buy some time to shift to domestic consumption based recovery, is what the Chinese policy may be now. Indications of this are evident with its grappling at the issues it has not tackled like giving ownership of land to farmers in rural areas, and to building a healthcare system for the country, both of which are part of a host of issues to shift to domestic consumption based recovery. So unlike the way the media and some experts portray it its not a tough line that the US is taking against Chinese unwillingness. China may want to cooperate.That may be true if China was missing out on 10-13% growth rates, but these were unsustainable anyway and bad policy. At growth rates below 5% as projected by analysts China may want to jettison the export model of growth and build an alternative one. In that case as China shifts to domestic consumption, currency adjustments may be seen quite differently than they were in the past....

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China's central bank reduces its reserve requirement ratio, required money set aside by commercial banks and not used for lending. It lowered by half percentage point to 13% the amount of reserves Chinese banks are required to set aside. As the economy has cooled recently with trade tensions with the U.S., China's growth has slowed to 6%. The move frees up $126 billion for lending. In a speech this week president Xi used the word "struggle" over a dozen times. The State Council has plans to allocate more money for vocational training, to expand railways construction.  Analysts of S&P recently estimated China's economic growth over the next decade at 4.6% on average if the trade dispute gets to a stalemate, if trade dispute worsens it could drop to 3.7%. The trade dispute has dampened the mood at China Development Forum in Beijing, with attendees saying the distrust between the U.S. and China is based on deep concerns about each other. Besides the lending increase planned, the central government is pushing local governments to find projects to create jobs. Local governments fear this would worsen the already high debt burden they carry. ...

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The US Federal Reserve Report on Economic Wellbeing of US Households 2024-May 2025 gives some insights into the well being of American households. It shows food insufficiency households the same in 2023-2025 at 7%. The situation for cost of living remains a concern in 2024 as well as 2025. Retirement savings have improved for many middle class Americans, as confirmed by reports from Fidelity and Vanguard. The people earning less than 25,000 are 19% and about the same in 2024 under Biden as under DJT in 2025. 39% make $100,000 or more and 26% make $50,000 -$100,000. Combining the 19% making less than $25,000 and the 16% making between $25,000 and $50,000 shows about one third of the population under $50,000 living paycheck to paycheck. It would appear that $2000 DJT rebate putting $160 billion out of $550 billion of tariff revenues for 2025-2026  in the hands of 79 million households that make less than $100,000 would go a long way to keep the situation stable with optimism and hope arising from the restructuring of world trade that would bring trillions of dollars of investment into the US from Europe and Asia. A this investment plus domestic investment should bring back jobs and higher incomes to US manufacturing in small towns across America. The rest of $550 billion tariff revenue of $390 billion would go to reducing the deficit which would improve prospects for the economy in 2027 and produce a more resilient economy in 2027-2028. As shown on this page the popular Democratic Governor of Michigan in her op-ed in Washington Post supports strategic tariffs, and supports using the revenue for a check to American workers of $2000 per worker or per worker household and offers to work with the opposite party to get a WIN-WIN for the American People.  In the whole process of trade tariffs it must be remembered when seeing the inconsistent cases of tariff use by this Republican administration that these were special reason situations not aberrations or whimsical. First, it should be borne in mind that behind the appearance of DJT making tariff decisions is a carefully thought out process that took ten years to form under Reagan era Trade Representative Lighthizer who negotiated with Japan, and his deputy Jamieson for 2016-2024, and the economic and capital markets experience of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The two cases of inconsistent application of tariffs relate to the 50% tariff on India and the reduction of tariffs on China agreement on rare earths, and the imposition of a large tarif on Japan and the EU. In the first instance with India it was intended to give Ukraine breathing room from Russian attacks as Germany steps up its military preparedness and assistance to Ukraine. With both countries it was about saving face important in Asian or any societies and it has achieved it's purpose. Reports show both Indian and Chinese refiners have quietly cut purchases of oil from Russia leading to Russian oil selling at about $20 discount to Brent crude oil. In the case of Japan the quick action to raise tariffs was intended not to get into long drawn negotiations and show serious intent- Japan is known for dragging out negotiations for years if not decades. The same is true for the European Union. With the Swiss it was about a certain disrespect of the US coming from attitudes that Swiss products were somehow superior. Not just in the long run, in 2026-2028 history will show that the effort done right - and it takes effort to get this right- to restructure world trade so that other nations are not siphoning off the benefits and leaving the US to lose its manufacturing and factories is the right one. And taken with courage and sincere desire to create a fair distribution of the benefits of world trade for too long distorted by egregious practices of competitors. It has nothing to do with 2 senators from the 1930's who were from places like the Mountain West in the US, having no concept of world trade, Smoot and Hawley, who under a irresponsible president Hoover got everything wrong. This is a carefully set out plan to evenly balance the benefits of world trade to all nations.   ...

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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Biden says at the APEC Summit that the US is seeking stable and good relations with China, that this is good for the world. He pointed out that the US wanted to be clear -"We are derisking and diversifying our relationship with China, not decoupling." This refers to the excessive dependence that happened in the relationship with China in the supply chain, in manufacturing, and in trade during the last three decades.

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The foreign lobbying by Pakistan and then India in Washington DC for access to the White House using lobbyist firms in the US. This enabled leaders from Pakistan to visit the White House in the US soon after conflict between Pakistan and India erupted over terrorist incident. Terrorist incidents happened in New Delhi and Islamabad in November 2025. The DJT administration may have gained support from Pakistan/Turkey for the Hamas settlement through this lobbying effort. The DJT administration inadvertently put itself in a position of being influenced by lobbying in this case for access to the White House. Following that event China's president Xi Jinping tightened restrictions on rare earths in trade negotiations with the US for a temporary agreement that gives access to the US market. This leaves the issue of illegal fentanyl flows from China and Mexico to the US, important to the US, and of restructuring world trade, also important to the US, major goals of this Republican administration in abeyance.   ...

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This analysis in the South China Morning Post says the current phase of U.S. China trade relations is more than a trade war, it is about changing the whole economic and industrial approach of China. In the same way that Japan changed after the talks during the Reagan administration and moved in a new direction. Robert Lighthizer was Deputy Trade representative at that time, he is the U.S. Trade Representative today.

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The US central bank the Fed's Powell leaves interest rates unchanged July 30, 2025- as he waits to see what happens with inflation following tariffs action by DJT to level playing field with EU, Japan, China. A tariff of 15% is set in US Trade Agreements with Japan, EU and South Korea. Powell says the impact on US consumers will be minimal but not zero, with some effects expected even though EU, Japan and South Korea will not attempt to pass through the tariffs and risk the other benefits of trade access to the US market.

Overall both the European Union and the US have a good economy, with inflation at 2% and the the unemployment situation the best it has been in some decades near 6% in EU and near 4% in the US. 

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After all the media talk about tariffs inflation- inflation is at 2.4% in May 2025. Tariffs was part of the toolbox of strategies under Lighthizer and Jamieson on getting fair world trade, and not like Congressman Hawley in the 1920's who understood little about the workings of the US economy. This fact the official media such as the WSJ and NYT, Wash Post, BBC need to get it right about the Hawley Tariffs. Hawley was born in rural Oregon in 1864 went to country schools, and was president of Willamette University in Salem, when it's population was 4258. As House Ways and Means Committee chairman he wrote the failed tariffs bill Hoover signed in 1930. DJT's US Trade Representative Lighthizer in 2016 led the successful negotiations with Japan under Reagan, Scott Bessent who leads negotiations on tariffs with China with USTR Jamieson, has a deep understanding and grasp of today's financial markets. Tariffs is one of the tools in the US toolbox to get Japan, China, South Korea to even the playing field for US companies and bring back manufacturing to the US. Without it China would not budge from its unfair advantage and would not negotiate in fairness. This is proven in the way Japan in the 1980s and China today are responding to the US position preparing their economies for not relying on sudden surges in exports putting whole industries and workers in America and Europe out of work and out of jobs. DJT says- "No we are not going to accept that," the EU is catching on and adopting a similar position, China knows that.  The media is irresponsible in presenting tariffs in a negative way, irresponsible to American workers the 10 million put out of work since 2000, and to American families and the Nation.   ...

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Trade tensions and struggle for tech leadership with U.S. actions to prevent flow of sensitive technology to China affect Chinese investment in Silicon Valley. American companies are required to comply with new American laws preventing such flows to China of American technology. The Trump administration takes action in 2019 to restrict such flows in its trade dispute with China over trade surpluses China accumulated over 2 decades, and over China's plans in the document "Made in China 2025" for tech leadership based on continued access to American and European technologies. Trump does a U turn from the initial efforts of Clinton and later Obama to maintain such flows to a developing country that has brought hundreds of millions out of poverty through favorable trade with Europe and the U.S. "Made in China 2025" was seen as a loss of American leadership in key areas beginning with the current loss of leadership in 5G to Huawei. Chinese investments in Silicon Valley face higher regulatory scrutiny in this new environment and American companies shy away from Chinese capital. ...

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Trading relationships and supply chain relationships of China with Japan, and other ASEAN nations built up since China joined the international trading system and became a major exporter are interconnected with the political relationships unraveling over issues such as Taiwan and maritime disputes. It took three decades for China to build up exports and manufacturing for exports of $1 trillion to the US and EU in 2021. Freedom of navigation in international waters and oceans, respect for international law, is important to all trading nations particularly Japan and China, that depend on maritime trade for their economies. 

 

 

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Erdbrink describes the evolution of trade relations with China which helped Iran during the period of western sanctions. Because of trade with the U.S. and western partners, China was careful to use the Bank of Kunlun, created to handle financial transactions with Iran, for import of oil and export of automobiles and other products.

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WSJ covers how trade US China trade tensions affect supplies of rare earths, chips and pharmaceutical ingredients to US and Europe from China.

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Upamanyu Hazarika gives this story of George Fernandes, a trade union leader in India in the post independence era. He played a role during the post Indira Gandhi Emergency period after 1977 and in the governments that were set up in the two decades that followed. Some of the political parties In India today trace their beginnings to that period. He was Defense Minister in the first term of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister. A new Penguin Random House biography looks at the life of Mr. Fernandes who comes from a Catholic family in Mangalore, Karnataka. and organized trade unions in Bombay state and in Bihar. Some of the shifts in Bombay from trade unions led by Mr. Fernandes to the Shiv Sena movement led by Bal Thackeray shifted attention to bringing jobs to the local Marathi speaking people in the commercial capital of the British period. Without the capital and technology needed and lacking the knowledge for development of industry on an American scale this kind of leadership failed to deliver on the aspirations of the people in the same way that Mao's experiments with the Great Leap Forward in India and Great Proleterian a Revolution failed to deliver in Beijing, Canton and Shanghai for China.  ...

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Proof that this is not an ordinary deep recession like those in the post war period comes in the way foreign trade is reacting in this downturn. Already evidence of this has been seen in the way Germany has been affected because of slowing exports from China to the US. German exports to China have declined as the Chinese export model comes under severe stress. A similiar situation is playing out for Japan. Now new proof of the drop in foreign trade is emerging in Commerce Department figures. Combined exports and imports of the USA dropped 18% in 4 months July to November, to $326 billion from $398 billion. Two thirds of this drop was in imports. So China and Japan's exports to the USA are severely affected. Japan showed a 27% decline in exports in November, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and imports dived 14%. According to calculations by the WSJ, Germany had 11.8% decline in foreign trade in November, and similiar numbers for France and Britain. Chief US Economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, says this is going to be the worst global recession since World War II. Combined with what is happening to inventories, (see links) and what is happening in housing, banking, the auto industry, and other industries, the complications of non-transparent packaged financial products clogging the American financial system, the hugely indebted consumer (see links), and the $2.1 trillion and rising cost of the stimulus and bailouts needed by one estimate, suggest that the recovery forecast for 2009-2010 does not take into account all these simultaneously occurring patterns and developments working together. ...

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With the strong positions taken by Clinton and Trump on China in the 2016 election campaign, U.S. relations with China enter a new phase. The strident tone in the campaign on China on trade deficit, women's issues, human rights, comes with the issues relating to China's role in the South China Sea and cyber espionage already in the background.