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Three regional Fed bank presidents have expressed skepticism of the Fed plan to buy medium to long term Treasury bonds- they are Kocherlakota of Minneapolis Fed, Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed, and Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed. There are 12 regional Fed banks, and five voting seats on the Federal Open Market Committee rotate for the 12 Fed bank presidents. Opposition to Bernanke will increase as these presidents take voting positions in the Fed Open Market Committee. The Wall Street Journal reports that there is deep skepticism about Bernanke's plan among some of his colleagues. Thomas Hoenig of the Kansas City Fed says that more expansive monetary policy was "a bargain with the devil." The Fed's plan is to take a measured approach with U.S. Treasury bond purchases with maturities between 2 and 10 years. A WSJ survey of private sector economists in October 2010 found that the Fed is expected to purchase about $250 billion of Treasury bonds each quarter, and continue till mid 2011, amounting to $750 billion in all. By pushing down Treasury yields the Fed hopes to have an impact on the federal funds rate of one-half to three-quarter percentage point impact for $500 billon of bond purchases, says Dudley, President of the New York Fed. Treasury yields on the 10 year note have fallen from 4% in April to 2.6% partly in anticipation of Fed's action. The previous Fed intervention in March 2009 was a program to buy $1.75 trillion of Treasury and mortgage bonds over 6-9 months. This time the approach will be careful and measured based on results, according to the Fed. Alan Blinder, former vice chairman of the Fed, says this is the tool less preferred and of unknown effectiveness, as fiscal tools would be the preferred choice. The deficit concerns, he says, have restricted the preferred option....

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China raises $3.7 billion in a 3 part deal in euros by issuing bonds worth 4 billion euros, for 5, 10, and 15 year bonds. Yields were a negative 0.152% for 5 year bonds and 0.32% and 0.66% for the 10 and 15 year bonds. This is the first time China has sold negative yielding bonds. Moody's projections show China public sector debt is at 185-190% of gross domestic product in 2020, up from 167% in 2019.  

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Richard Barley points out that Italy has some breathing room even as the ten year yields on Italian debt reaches 6.15%, up 1.5 percentage points in 2011. Existing Italian debt has an interest rate of 4% and an average maturity of 7 years, according to Morgan Stanley. This means higher interest rates on new debt will take some time to have a serious impact. Fitch's estimates are that if 10 year yields on Italian debt went up to 7%, interest payments would go up to 6.1% of GDP by 2015 from 4.8% of GDP. This gives Italy some time to come up with solutions for competitiveness and growth issues. Italy's growth rate was only 0.1% for the 1st quarter of 2011, and debt is 119% of GDP. Italy also has a primary budget surplus which puts it in a better situation than other southern European economies.

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The size of the municipal CDS market is about $50 billion. Five large derivatives dealers- Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley- met in November 2010 to discuss standardizing paperwork for "muni CDSs" to attract more buyers and sellers. The biggest banks are hoping to profit from the deteriorating finances of US cities and states. The CDSs or credit default swaps require swap sellers to compensate buyers if a municipal issuer misses an interest payment or restructures its debt. This makes states nervous and they are suspicious of CDSs, believing that this encourages speculators to bet on, and worsen states' financial situation. California is about to require all 86 of its underwriting banks to disclose what CDSs they have traded on the states' debt, for customers or for their own accounts.

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Barley points out the resignation of prime minister Monti in Italy is not a cause for panic, as his likely successor Luigi Bersani, head of the centre left Democratic party which leads in the polls with its electoral alliance having about 43% support, has committed to following through with Monti's policies and committments to the EU. Berlusconi is not the factor he once was with only 15% support in the polls, and anti establishment parties opposing public corruption such as Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement appealing to younger people have about 20% support changing the political landscape in Italy. Other factors favoring Italy- a lower level of debt redemption in 2013 of 158 billion euros compared to 200 billion euros for 2012 will lower Italian bond issuance, Italy's primary budget surplus, the Italian economy bottoming out, and credit conditions improving. Year to date Italian bonds have returned 19.5%, and he sees no reason for an exit from Italian bonds. If polls continue to show a committment to the policies introduced by Monti, Italian bonds will continue to be attractive for investors. By setting Italy on the path to restoring and strengthening governance Monti has removed a key element for volatility in Italian bonds....

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523 European banks borrowed 489 billion euros from the European Central Bank on Dec. 21, 2011, under the newly created Long Term Financing Operation of the ECB. This is designed to meet the financing needs of European banks which are shutoff from normal financing of selling unsecured bonds to private investors because of market anxiety. Much of this is for replacing other outstanding ECB loans, with analysts estimating about 190 billion euros of new liquidity being injected into the banking system. This also has the effect of reducing the borrowing rates for government bonds. In Spain the government sold 5.6 billion euros of government bonds at an auction on Dec. 20, 2011, with the interest rates dropping from 5.7% a month earlier to 1.7%. Small and midsize banks in Spain helped surging demand by buying the bonds to use as collateral for three year loans from the ECB at 1%.

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The borrowing costs of Italy declined sharply as 9 billion euros of Italy's government bonds were auctioned at a yield of 3.25 percent on Dec. 28, 2011, compared to 6.50 percent at a prior auction in November 2011. The rate on 1.7 billion euros of two year bonds auctioned declined to 4.85 percent from 7.81 percent in November. This follows action by the ECB providing a large infusion of low cost funds to European banks charging only 1 percent on three year loans.

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Proposed ideas being considered at the EU headquarters in Brussels include the European bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), being made a bank with funding from the European Central Bank. The EFSF would be able to buy the bonds of Spain and Italy in primary and secondary markets alongside private buyers. As an alternative the ECB would be able to buy Spanish and Italian bonds directly. Here the problem is keeping private investors in the market given the large financial needs of Spain and Italy. In the restructuring of Greece's government bonds the ECB took the position that it would subordinate the claims of private investors in Greece's government bonds and not take loss. Concerns of private investors could be addressed by the eurozone governments giving an explicit indemnity to the ECB to cover any losses suffered in the purchase of Spanish and Italian bonds. Both steps, the direct purchase of Spain's and Italy's bonds by the ECB or through the EFSF would mean doing something that is not in the ECB's charter- the financing of government debt- and would be done cautiously and only in a crisis situation. The caution would also be motivated by the need to ensure there is action to improve the competitiveness of Spain, Italy and other eurozone countries through specific measures, and no backtracking bygovernments....

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Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority's longer term bonds trade at about 40 cents to the dollar in 2014. The utility struggled to make a bond payment, and has $9 billion in debt. Utility rates for customers are about twice that in the U.S.

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Rhabdo happens after intense workouts beyond what your body can take. Increasingly trainers push people to do more. Starting from low exercise levels to suddenly intense can be a problem. Monitoring heart rate and doing it steadily, increasing it gradually, and listening to your body is important. Going steady, and being regular, increasing gradually letting body adjust, gets the best results in the gym and outdoors.

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Mario Monti takes office as prime minister of Italy as Italian bond yields reach 7.4%. Italy faces the task of refinancing 200 billion euros of maturing bonds by April 2012. Bond yields exceeding 7% make the task of refinancing Italian debt even more difficult. Monti said he would try to restore Italy to financial health without giving up "social equity," and added that "we owe it to our children to give them a dignified and hopeful future."

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Quantitiative easing, the Fed and the Bank of England creating money to buy government bonds, is creating the liquidity the surplus dollars and pounds that are lowering the two currencies value. But as the Economist notes there is no easy exit strategies for the two central banks, as abandoning QE would lead to asharp rise in bond yields, continuing it would maintain dollar weakness. WIth the dollar's uncertain situation, the growing deficit, and low interest rates allowing QE to continue, the Economist sees an eventual breakdown of current currency arrangements, and the emergence of anew currency system similiar to Bretton Woods.

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Investing in bonds looks better today say experts. Most of these experts say the economy is doing much better with the infrastructure spending and this bodes well for both stocks and bonds in the long term. The old tech stock world is being replaced by an infrastructure investment world.