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Australian anthropologist Genevieve Bell heads a group of 75 people at Intel Labs working to figure out all the ways technology affects people and society. Here she talks to NYT's Quentin Hardy. She says there are three areas in which technology is changing the way we live, and act, and our relationship to society. Like electrification the digital revolution is changing the concept of time, introducing new ideas about availability and response time. Here she points out the need to leave some parts of the day for disconnectedness, to preserve quiet time in our lives for recharging and getting a sense of who and where we are. Then there is the idea of space, of imaginary space when connecting to people in distant places, and physical space such as at airports and public places with wifi and internet to connect. After space and time come social relationships, about relating to one's fellow human beings. With this comes ideas of privacy, security and risk. With changes in how we view time, space and social relationships, comes anxiety. Social movements are likely to develop around ideas of government and governance, on issues such as what it means to be unequal and denied economic opportunity, when the digital revolution itself is opening up new visions of what is possible, just as electrification did at the turn of the twentieth century....

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A big hurdle for local brands in China is the Chinese consumer's interest and respect for foreign brands. Asked about local brands buyers say they can't think of any, or say Chinese brands are shoddy in quality and value. Brands such as Haier in consumer appliances and Lenovo in tech are an exception. During the big surge in consumer sales in the last two decades Chinese companies producing local brands thought it adequate to simply imitate foreign brand names rather than take the difficult route of establishing the credibility of their own brand- an effort which might take years. Often the foreign name was changed slightly to keep the resemblance but mean something positive to Chinese consumers in the local language. Common are names such as Adidos, Hike, Cnoverse and Fuma for sneakers. Clio Coste keeps the connection to Lacoste with its crocodile logo. Coca Cola in Chinese is Kekoulele, translated to mean Tasty Fun. Only now are local companies giving serious attention to creating long term brand entity and image. The serious attention to brand names and branding comes at a time when China increasingly depends on consumer sales to power the economy with the decline in real estate and slower manufacturing. For the 11 months of 2014 retail sales were up 12 percent over the prior year period to $3.8 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. ...

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Problems facing Saudi Arabia in 2015 as King Salman, 79, takes over are an aging leadership, and lack of new solutions to problems facing the economy overly dependent on oil revenues and social spending. Like other Persian Gulf economies the oil sector makes up a large part of GDP- 44% for Saudi Arabia, and 59% for Kuwait. Under King Salman policies will remain the same as under King Abdullah. Social spending was boosted after the protests and political change in the Middle East in 2012-2013. Even with a drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel high social spending and reliance on public sector jobs to meet the employment needs of young Saudis will continue. Young people under 25 years make up 47% of the Saudi population of 29 million. No new income streams are being pursued and taxation is not even considered as an option. The private sector is led by non-Saudis and is under financed with most employment generated in the public sector. Growing oil consumption inside the kingdom with its growing population is also likely to reduce the quantity of oil available for export in the long term. Reserves of $750 billion provide a buffer for now, but long term Saudi Arabia faces a structural deficit, says Steffen Hertog, an expert on Persian Gulf political economics, at the London School of Economics. ...

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Glassman cites Ronald Reagan who once said economists are people who look at things in practice and then see if they can prove this in theory. He co-authored a book on "Dow 36,000" in 1999. What happened and why? He correctly says the Dow is up to 12,000- and this only after Fed chairman Bernanke's $600 billion quanitative easing on top of low to zero interest rate policies after the 2008 crisis- in the 12 years since. So what happened? Glassman says what he did not account for is the huge decline in the prospects for the U.S. economy, with Congressional Budget Office estimates of 2% growth over the next 70 years, compared to the 3.5% growth in the first 50 years of the 20th century. A lot goes go into this, including the debt buildup, the lack of investment in human capital and K-12 education. The other is the huge volatility in stock returns, and the "discontinuous" risks stemming from things like the home price crash, terrorist 9/11 attack and other such developments. He says he is tired of telling investors to hold on in the face of such huge volatility and uncertainty. He advises a cautious strategy, a pull back from stocks to reduce the downside on returns and a smaller allocation to stocks....

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To see the changes in East Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall one has to go beyond the larger cities like Dresden, Leipzig, and Berlin. One has to go to the smaller towns, which are rapidly losing population as young people leave for jobs in the western part of Germany. The government says the gap is closing between the western and eastern parts of Germany. It says $60 billion was spent on infrastructure and to support businesses in 2006-2008. ANd economic activity per person is now up to 71% of western part of Germany from 67% in this last decade. But look at the smaller towns in the east and you see young people leaving, the average of the people going way up, the population dropping, and with this unneeded or abandoned apartment buildings have to be bulldozed. Unemployment is double that in the west. In some areas the number of women between 20and 30 has dropped 30%. About 1.7 million people or 12% of the population has left East Germany since the fall of the Berlin Wall. About 2000 schools have closed because of ascarcity of children. The demographics were such in the early years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, that for a number of years East Germans stopped having children, says the Director of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development....

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The new head of Roche, Severin Schwan, sees a huge opportunity in the current state of pharmaceuticals. He says drugmaking is still "so crude," because half of all known diseases cannot be treated at all, and the drugs for the diseases that are being treated don't work as well as they should and with a lot of side effects that make serious drawbacks in using them. He compares this state of affairs to acar that starts only half of the time and has brakes that don't always work. What gets hime excited is the rapid advances in diagnostics, genomics and biotechnology that can bring a"brand new revolution" in personalized medicine. He is pushing forward in the areas of biotechnology with the $47 billion deal that integrates Genentech into Roche, and in molecular diagnostics with the integration of 454 Life Sciences and Ventana. Doubts were raised during the integration of Genentech into Roche about whether the research climate at Genentech could be preserved and whether research scinetists would leave. But most have stayed. With the resources of a larger company behind Genentech and the patient approach that a firm with a founding family controlling the firm can take under a leadership determined to invest in research, experts like Tim Anderson of Bernstein Research see Roche well positioned to grow by aquarter over the next five years....

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Citigroup remains extraordinarily leveraged, with tangible leverage at 47 times tangible common equity. JP Morgan's is 26 times and Goldman's is 21 times. The government's two preferred shares capital injections of $45 billion does not reinforce the common stock, which fell 20% on the 14 January, 2009, and the discarding of the universal bank structure this week does not adequately address the root problem of problem mortgage related assets and excessive leverage. The government's agreeing to to take a large share of losses on $306 billion of problem assets helps, but with the leverage being so high significant problems remain. So what are the options. Reducing leverage to where J.P. Morgan Chase is would take $35 billion in common equity, something that would make the government the owner of Citibank, as Citibank's market capitalization on January 14, 2009 was $25 billion. The risk of doing this would be that other large bank stocks also fall steeply as the market prices in a similiar outcome. And there are political considerations as giving capital to banks is not popular with so little bank lending to show constituents. The capital needs of Bank of America as it completes the acquisition of Merrill further complicates the picture. But stopgap moves like additional loss sharing agreements will leave Citbank's problems still unresolved. ...

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Fiat acquires a 35% stake in Chrysler with the option to take a 55% stake and majority ownership at later date. The way Marchionne puts it offers clues to Fiat's thinking and strategy. He said this will offer Fiat the opportunity to gain access to a relevant automotive market. Fiat exited the American market in 1983 after years of poor quality. Under new leadership Fiat has come up with bestselling small and fuel eficient cars in Europe. So it is now in a position to bring these cars to the US, where even though the market is declining there may be room for the small cars Fiat is famous for like the Fiat 500. Chrysler received a $4 billion loan from the US government, and this government assistance under an administration keen on keeping a loss of jobs to a minimum must also have helped Fiat make its investment. It may also have been seen as an opportunity with a low cost for Fiat, as Cerberus Capital which owns Chrysler is eager to get out of its failed Chrysler investment. The US government would also be keen on seeing Fiat becoming an eventual owner of Chrysler, because of its innovative, evironment friendly, fuel efficient small car development and its offerings in Europe that might find appeal in the US....

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The company that only a couple of years ago was coming up with new models and among the top names in the cell phone business, is now gasping for air as it struggles to keep its cellphone business alive. It is an example of how vigilant and on ones toes (how paranoid in Andy Grove's words), one has to be in the fast moving tech businesses. Losing its leadership position to Nokia and other rivals like Samsung and LG from South Korea, who had better strategies and newer models, Motorola has never recovered, and the way down has been steep and precipitious. Motorola's cellphone sales fell a huge 51% in the fourth quarter, matching in its magnitude the kind of breathtaking sales drops that have hit GM and Chrysler for January 2009. And things cannot get better when the loss of $595 million for the cellphone division (or $31 for each cellphone shipped), mean cuts in design and other needed staff. Motorola has been closing design centers and has laid off 25% of design staff. In total Motorola posted a loss of $3.58 billion for the 4th quarter 2008. The rest of the losses include writedowns and charges for layoffs of 7000 workers announced since October 2008. Motorola shares trade at $4.04 on the NYSE and Moody's has downgraded it to Baa3, the lowest investment grade rating. ...

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Robert Frank, an economist at Cornell and visiting Professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU, says this deficit increasing our debt burden is entirely different from the way in which the Bush administration increased the national debt. During the last 8 years the Bush deficits increased the national debt by almost $5 trillion. But people went for larger mansions, and consumers went on aconsumption binge, and the Bush tax cuts were skewed to help the wealthy. Now to address the economic crisis a similiar amount of about $5 trillion will be needed but it will be spent quite differently. Money spent on ropads and building infrastructure that is needed is money well spent on any dimension. Especiallyfor America's crumbling roads and bridges and highways. If postponed these would cost more or twice as much to fix. Frank's point is that alot depends on what you do with the money. At recent interest rates servicing $10 trillion in debt costs about $400 billion annually. He says thats quite manageable. Just by instituting agasoline tax of $2 agallon as the Europeans do and are not alot poorer dfor this, the US could generate $100 billion ayear. When Americans are using mass transit in the largest numbers in 50 years, it also makes sense to build better faster transportation systems between major cities, like the high speed trains in Europe....

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Very important interview with the Vice Chairman of Chevron, Peter Robertson. He gives a very thoughtful view of the answers to the most important questions about oil, what will the price be like, what will it depend on happening, are some of the numbers being put out for 2030 realistic, and what can materially change the scenarios. He is frank about not knowing how this will come out, who knows the production numbers some years from now, it depends on a number of things happening, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Mexico, Russia, can potentially increase production if they make the necessary investments. In the case of Iraq having a stable government and peaceful transition. What happens in efficiency will define the picture on the demand side as we are already seeing new fuel economy standards and conservation across the board in all uses of energy. Robertson sees a lower price, but over time as new production comes on stream and bottlenecks in investment such as shortage of technical resources pool are overcome, and at the same time as conservation really kicks in including fuel economy and other methods. He sees production of 125 million barrels per day as a stretch, a twice stretch as the 80 million barrels per day now produced will become a low number so that will have to be pulled up too to reach the 125 number....

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Class of 1977 was first after the Cultural revolution. In 1977 China held its first competitive national university entrance examination since 1965. A period of 12 years of the cultural revolution till 1977 were a lost decade in terms of education and getting the best minds and training them for careers in various fields for development and modernization. The year 1977 with the reinstatement of university entrance exams was remarkable in the outpouring of energy as young people prepared for entrance exams in a period of a few weeks. Textbooks were hard to find, for over ten years most had no schooling and worked in rural areas doing farming work. Students scrambled to find teachers to guide them. 273,000 were admitted to universities that year- only 4.7% of the the students taking the test. In comparison 58% of nine million students in 2007 were admitted to universities three decades later in 2007. Li Keqiang is one of these students who worked really hard to get into Peking University. He is the new prime minister, part of the new generation of leaders in China. Others include Zhou Qiang, governor of Hunan province, Wang Yi, party secretary of Foreign Affairs Ministry, and Jin Liqun, vice president of the Asian Development Bank, filmmakers Yimou and Kaige. and the writer Chen Cun. ...

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Shiller's view on the housing bubble and on why rational people like Greenspan came to the wrong conclusion about housing bubble. others judgement and willingness to pay higher prices will influence our own. But what about the delayed reaction hypothesis, that everything just takes a much longer time to work out as on would rationally expect, bubble phenomena just extend the time period and add a huge lag effect for the rational conclusion about a market to finally play out. Why? For one reason if its very profitable to the participants they will do everything in their power to extend the duration of the good times by coming up with new tricks and new mechanisms, creating distortions that will in the end magnify the ill effects after the bubble bursts. The SIV's constitute some of these new tricks and mechanisms to extend the duration of the good times in the current housing bubble and the complexities they create magnify the ill effects of the bubble after it has ended, one because no one knows for sure if all the bad debt is out in the open and so see the need to set aside extra reserves and be cautious lenders in the case of the banks leading to a bad credit squeeze, and more lasting damage to the economy....

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The US with 5% of the world's population has 25% of the world's prisoners. The US has 2.3 million peope behind bars according to the International Center for Prison Studies. China with 4 times the population has 1.6 million people in prison. The US has 751 people in prison per every 100,0000. It varies a lot within the states Louisiana at 1138 per 100,000 and Maine at 273 being the lowest, Minnesota at 300 is more like Sweden at 80 per 100,000 people.Interestingly it shot up in 1975, for a long period from 1925 to 1975 it was about 110 per 100,000. Explanations are given such as the war on drugs but only 500,000 are in prison for drug offences, so its only part of the explanation. tougher sentencing, availability of handguns and higher murder rates, and even the election of judges who respond to public opinion favoring tougher sentencing, are all given as answers. Interestingly Canada's crime rates parallel those seen in the US but the imprisonment rate has been stable for the last 40 years according to one expert Mr. Tonry. He says that english speaking countries have higher prison rates than French and other European peoples. Higher prison rates for black people are known to be the case in English speaking countries but no figures are given here. This is part of the problem....

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China has seen novel uses of the internet. Pinduoduo is one of them. It brings people together on the internet to socialize and shop together. Purchases are small compared to Alibaba- $324 a year on average. By  bringing people in large numbers it has brought in about 788 million users in 2020.  One of the attractions is an orchard game where people tend to their digital orchards to earn shopping vouchers and prizes such as boxes of mangoes.The founder Mr. Huang studied computer science at the University of Wisconsin- Madison where he met Chen who now runs the company. Huang's first effort as recently as 2015 was to sell lychees and fruit from their sole warehouse in Shanghai on WeChat platform. This failed when the computer systems of the website could not handle the large number of orders. Lychees then rotted at the warehouse. From that first effort he realized the way social and browsing platforms could work with shopping. To build up large number of buyers who could be served advertising he came up with subsidies to buyers that are financed from the advertising. Money from advertising is put back into the subsidies. The buyers get discount on purchases and the browsing social platform builds large number of users in a short time. In this way it has as many users as Alibaba but purchases are small.  As in these types of startups with huge valuations and fast growth no profits were made in 2020. The loss is $1.1 billion in 2020. It has put $13 billion of the ad revenues into subsidizing the products on the site. Investors have given the company $6 billion for an agriculture program to sell fresh food and produce.  The Chinese government sees the company subsidies as having an effect of distorting the market prices. Regulators have fined the company for its practices. The company's working culture has some aspects that come under criticism with deaths of two employees.  This offers a glimpse of China's internet culture. How much of it is real constructive development of the internet is always a question. Is investor capital productively invested is also a question. Like Japan in the late 1980's few questions are asked by investors about productive uses of capital. As growth slows as it did in Japan by 2000 a lot of these questions are likely to come back.   ...

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he doesn't yet have the necessary votes to stop Democrats from calling for witnesses. Democrats want former presidential National Security Adviser Mr. Bolton to testify under oath about the president's motivations for freezing aid to Ukraine. During three day of presentations by Mr. Trump's defense legal team the focus of Pat Philbin and Alan Dershowitz was on the actions of the president on Ukraine policy not rising to the level of Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Justice that Democrats in the House have presented as the 2 Articles for impeachment. Earlier the White House legal team put the focus on Mr. Biden, and his son Hunter Biden's role in the Ukrainian company Burisma as a board member. Burisma was being investigated for corruption by Ukrainian prosecutors. Much of the defense presentation recalled the effort during the early days after the Civil War to impeach president Andrew Johnson simply because Republicans in Lincoln's party did not like Mr. Johnson's views on Reconstruction of the South, and his dismissal of Mr. Stanton, the Secretary of War. That effort failed because it lacked one additional vote needed for a two thirds majority in the Senate. Republicans say not only are the president's actions on Ukraine calling for an investigation of the Biden's not an impeachable offense as "a high crime," but also that Democrats dislike of Mr. Trump just as Republican dislike for Mr. Johnson was lowering the bar for impeachment by making malleable charges. They argued that one of the country's founders Mr. Mason even rejected the idea presented to him that "maladministration" as grounds for impeachment should be put in the Constitution for the very same reason, that it was malleable to a preconceived notion of what is wrong. Four Republican senators Gardner of Colorado, McSally of Arizona, Tillis of North Carolina and Collins of Maine face tight races in upcoming elections, and may decide in favor of a compromise for the calling of witnesses. This would allow Republicans to call Mr. Biden and Hunter Biden to testify, and Democrats to call Mr. Bolton to testify on his views expressed in his to be published book that the president withheld aid to Ukraine because he felt that corruption needed to be investigated.   ...

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Boris Johnson, who heads a minority government in Britain following resignation of Theresa May, will do just about anything to push Britain out of the European Union by October 31st. He has said he would "rather be dead in a ditch" than ask for an extension of the October 31st deadline. The British parliament is dead set on preventing that and has passed legislation requiring a extension of the October 31st deadline to January 2020. Johnson is even willing to go to jail for breaking the law, on the grounds that he is simply supporting the people's referendum choice over an elected parliament. This is itself a strange situation because the elected representatives in parliament decide for the people, and views in a referendum can change over time. Johnson says the reports of Britain's economy taking a blow from simply falling out of the European Union without a negotiated deal are exaggerated. He even once said all it means is that there might be "a shortage of Mars chocolate bars." Before becoming prime minister with a one vote majority in parliament which he promptly lost on the first day parliament met, Boris was a journalist who was elected Mayor of London. His only other position was for a brief period with controversy as Foreign Secretary in Theresa May's government. By taking in as chief adviser the head of the Brexit referendum Leave campaign Mr. Cummings, Mr. Johnson shows he believes he could win a general election with a carefully orchestrated campaign like that of Leave that blames the Labour Party, and the Scottish National party for stopping Brexit and halting the people's mandate.  The question is whether Cummings has gone too far or Boris Johnson has gone too far using Cumming's methods and views. Many Conservative moderates were expelled from the Conservative Party by Johnson and Cummings leaving the Conservative Party in self-destructive mode and the worst shape it has been in its history. It is not clear that after 10 years of austerity and rule by the Conservative party, and the mess from the single minded pursuit of Brexit that has overshadowed Britain's other priorities, that the British public would simply give a broken Conservative Party another mandate without thinking carefully about all the consequences. More so amid the lack of trust that is a feature of the Boris Johnson minority government.  ...

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On World Soil Day DW.com provides this reminder about how important soil is to our life. It is a reminder too of the all things that are really important during the pandemic. Few remember the words of FDR in 1937 during the Dust Bowl days in America when overplowing and displacement of prairie grasslands that anchored the topsoil reduced once-fertile plains to parched, barren wasteland that were swept by dust storms. This was brought to life in Steinbeck's novel Grapes of Wrath. American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) said in 1937 that "a nation that destroys its soil, destroys itself."   This is true for India and all parts of the world, now more than ever. The promotion of ancient grains by Mr. Modi in India helps in the way that crops can be varied so that the soil can regenerate itself, and is not drained of nutrients with one or two crops such as rice and wheat. A 2015 study by University of Sheffield in UK showed that one third of the world's arable land  was lost to pollution and erosion in the last 40 years. That study says it takes 500 years to form one inch of topsoil. Countries like India cannot afford land degradation and Modi's emphasis on improved practices in agriculture away from pesticides and careful use of chemical fertilizer, with natural substitutes in traditional agriculture taking precedence, cannot come at a better time. Healthy soils also create carbon sinks storing greenhouse gases and reducing climate change. A square meter of soil can contain 10,000 different species of worms, insects, bacteria and fungi, with a single gram home to a billion bacteria. Rich fertile earth that nourishes ecosystems is a world apart from the dust storm swept land that led to crop failures in Depression period America, leading to farmers migrating and poverty, Some of the agricultural practices that promote biodiversity are more labor intensive, and suited to India, and can actually increase agricultural production. With the added advantage of produce being organic. It can increase crop yields through better biodiversity, to yield 2.3 billion metric tons of additional crop yields per year worldwide, worth 1.24 trillion euros, (imagine that) according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, cited by DW.com. For Indian farmers this is a great opportunity in agriculture to improve agriculture and increase incomes. It is also an opportunity for farmers everywhere, in Europe, America, other parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa. ...

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Greg Ip points out in this WSJ analysis that the new NAFTA after negotiations and warnings from Mr. Trump to scrap NAFTA, is not very different from the old NAFTA. Mexico made concessions on auto exports and labor rights, wages. Canada made concessions for the dairy industry. Yet the combined influence of business interests, Canada's lobbying in U.S. Congress and state governments, and the restraint shown by Trump's own advisers prevailed in limiting Mr. Trump's tendencies to go for a "America first" agenda. It shows, says Ip, that there is resilience in the existing order.  It also shows what future trade negotiations with the European Union and Japan over steel and autos could look like. President Trump will continue to face resistance within from his advisers and from exporters, business, Congress, on following an exclusively "America First" agenda. President Trump will need to extol NAFTA in its current version the USMCA, U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, to get it through the U.S. Congress in 2019.   Mexico's main concessions on autos were to agree to potential tariffs if exports exceed 2.6 million vehicles.  This keeps Mexico's status as a major auto export hub intact. Auto experts say VW and Mazda may simply pay the tariff of 2.5% for lower priced models assembled in Mexico that do not qualify for duty free entry instead of shifting production to the U.S. Current shipments from Mexico are not affected as U.S. demand is weak. Labor rights and higher wages in Mexico's auto industry are a win-win for Mexico and the U.S.. They are supported by the socialist administration of newly elected Mexican president Obrador. Canada's main concession was to expand U.S. access to Canada's protected dairy industry, with Canada already prepared to make the concession. Mr. Trump had also to consider the possibility that excluding Canada from the USMCA would have not passed Congress, and face even more resistance in a Democratic controlled Congress after 2019 elections.  The support Canada has received in Congress does not extend to China, which gets much less support in Congress, leading to higher uncertainty in the negotiations with China and possibly different outcome with the size of the trade imbalance of $1 billion a day factored in.   ...

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This report in the WSJ provides details on the groundwork that was laid by the Trump administration as it worked to find a solution to the problems facing Venezuela with refugees and economic crisis, and months of protests. The plans were set in the days before Nicholas Maduro took office for the second term as president. The night before Juan Guaido, head of the National Assembly, declared himself president, U.S. vice president Mike Pence stated that the U.S. would support him if he took the reins of government from Maduro by invoking a clause in the Venezuelan Constitution that makes the head of the National Assembly take the office of president if the existing president is declared illegitimate taking office unlawfully. About 60 nations did not recognize the elections that gave Maduro a second term. On Jan 2 Mr Trump who feels deeply about the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and rising poverty, the suffering of the Venezuelan people, met with presidents of Brazil and Colombia. Colombian president Ivan Duque and Trump hinted at a plan to cooperate to help people fleeing Venezuela and respecting its democratic heritage. Mr Pompeo spoke to allies of the U.S. The National Assembly laid out its plans on Jan 15, for using a constitutional mechanism that allows the head of the Assembly to lead an interim government till new elections are held if the existing president is declared illegitimate. A leading Republican senator of Cuban origin Mr. Rubio supported the move. On the eve of protests in Venezuela Rubio and two other senators from Florida met Mr. Trump and Pence at the White House. Also present were Bolton, Pompeo, Ross and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Mr. Trump then decided to do it. He placed a call to Mr. Guiado  to tell him that if the National Assembly invoked Article 233 the U.S. president would back him.  The U.S. believes the rank and file in the military are with the opposition even though its leaders back Maduro. After the U.S. action, the governments of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia, backed the move for an interim government. The European Union called for free and credible elections. Russia and Mexico supported Maduro.  The State Department instructed the U.S. Federal Reserve about Guiado government as the sole representative for Venezuelan assets in banks. Sanctions could be placed on Venezuelan oil exports as backup efforts proceed to support the interim government. ...

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According to the chief economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, his models show that $500 billion of purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve will increase growth in the U.S. by only 0.1% in 2011, and leave unemployment at 9% or higher for two years. Moody's Analytics and Macroeconomic Advisors also point to small impact of quantitative easing efforts of the Fed. One economist said that the Fed's taking interest rate to zero had not worked, QE1 has not worked either, and now its a serious question how much difference QE2 would make.

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The effort and agitation of Gujjars, a backward class, to obtain preferential status similar to Scheduled castes and tribes like the Meenas, has spilled into New Delhi from the western state of Rajasthan. This is an effort to get a bigger piece of the development pie through government quotas for hiring and other prefernetial treatment.

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Ingram says Obama's 2015 budget is more of a wish list for Democrats, because 2015 spending levels are already set and House Republicans will put together their own budget putting forward the Republican views. Obama's budget includes new taxes on busiess and the wealthy to reduce the deficit. Other ideas- raise tobacco taxes to pay for universal pre-K education, a "Fianncial Crisis Responsibility Fee" on big banks, overhaul immigraion laws to increase tax revenues, limit itemized deductions for the rich, force drug companies to give large rebates on Medicare prescriptions. Another proposal is a $56 billion "Opportunity, Growth and Security" Initiative, for spending on early childhood education, job training, and medical research. To pay for this he would cut the amount wealthy people can save tax free for retirement, cut crop insurance and raise airline security fees.