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Property sales are estimated to fall by 28-33% in China, twice as earlier forecast by S&P Global Ratings. This is a steep decline that will affect the Chinese economy so dependent on construction. This week there were reports of property buyers in 100 cities getting together to withhold payments on unfinished apartments. Property developers depend on these payments as they have severe liquidity problems and need cash for operations.

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Women do twice as much of the caregiving for elderly parents and small children as men. About 41% of mothers say this makes it harder for them as working parents. About 20% of the female workforce in U.S. is giving elderly care. This adds up to more stress, decreased working hours, decreased income, needing leave of absence, and missing promotions or training. Only 14% of working people in the U.S. have even one day of paid leave to care for a new baby or seriously sick family member- a startling statistic for America, showing lack of family friendly policies at most companies.

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India's Supreme Court ruled that Vodafone PLC does not owe $2.2 billion in taxes on the acquisition of a majority stake in Hutchison Essar Ltd. The Indian tax authorites were directed to return 25 billion rupees ($500 million) which Vodafone had deposited. With declining foreign investment in India and a lower growth rate of about 7%, this tax case had assumed larger significance. The Supreme Court decision emphasized that taxing Vodafone "would amount to imposing capital punishment for capital investment." Vodafone had difficulties in its Indian operations- a $3.4 billion impairment charge in May 2010 because of strong competition. Vodafone is estimated to have invested $26 billion in India since 2007, and in the fiscal year ending March 2011 showed only $115 million in profit on sales of $3.86 billion.

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Competing models from Suzuki and other manufacturers have better acceleration for highways and are more durable than the Tata Nano or its successor the Tata Twist. The Tata Twist is pricd at $400,twice the price of the Nano, and has features such aspower steering. The small engine with power closer to that of a motorcycle is a serious handicap for the Nano concept, as buyers are looking for more power on Indian highways. The Tata Nano sold as low as 5000 cars in Nov. 2013, with the 250,000 capacity of the Nano plant in Gujarat remaining unutilized.

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As U.S. carmakers vehicle sales recover and the Japanese carmakers go through a slowdown as a result of disruptions from the earthquake, the U.S. and the Japanese carmakers find their situations reversed. Japanese carmakers are facing vehicle shortages in the U.S.. Detroit carmakers see the opportunity to make gains in market share during this period, till Toyota and Honda return to normal. Detroit carmakers have also been affected by the earthquake related supplier disruptions, but to a much smaller extent. Chrysler expects to produce 50,000 to 100,000 fewer vehicles as a result of disruptions, according to Marchionne. Chrysler, the weakest of the Detroit carmakers, has staged a recovery under Fiat's Marchionne. One hurdle was the high interest payments- $348 million in the first quarter of 2011- on the $7.5 billion borrowed from U.S. and Canadian governments. Chrysler increased revenue by 35% to $13.1 billion, with global sales of vehicles up 18% to 394,000, and profits of $116 million in the first quarter 2011. The market situation is still precarious for several reasons. Sales of pickup trucks and larger vehicles- which still constitute a major portion of vehicles sales of Detroit carmakers- are vulnerable to higher gas prices. The Japanese carmakers have large cash reserves for new investments, and will introduce new models as they recover from the earthquake. In the past Detroit carmakers used incentives to maintain sales, which diluted profits. Jeremy Anwyl, chief executive of Edmunds.com, says Detroit carmakers have an opportunity to get back to a situation where they can compete with foreign carmakers on a level playing field, with better market acceptance and higher prices. GM says it will increase prices by about $123 on average to cover higher materials costs. The risk will continue to be in the product mix of a higher proportion of pickup trucks and larger vehicles in a volatile oil price environment....

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Mead points out that the world with an effective U.S. leadership based on democracy and the values we cherish is needed now more than ever, after the failures of the Bush and Obama administrations to provide the kind of balanced leadership all Americans can stand behind. A world without an effective and enlightened leadership from the U.S, is one in which the world could fall apart in regional rivalry, one in which the hundreds of millions of people in the poorer parts of India, China, Russia, Brazil, and other developing countries of the world, will have less opportunity to meet their aspirations for a better life. This is because a focus on development requires less regional rivalry and because serious missteps can reverse in a few years decades of economic progress as shown in the 2008 global financial crisis. More so because we live in an increasingly interdependent global economy. It is also the kind of world where suppression of freedoms and suppression of the opposition as in China and Russia, provides a wrong kind of message, a world in which we or our children would not want to live in. Russia, India and China, are too driven by rivalry and lack the deep experience to go it alone, multipolar is more likely to end up being multipolar rivalry leading to a race to the bottom, which would be bad for all, especially for the poor in Asia and the developing world. The 2008 crisis showed what some serious economic mistakes could do to employment and incomes in the world with output dropping by a third in most places. Political missteps could lead to a slippery slope of this magnitude but more difficult to correct. Greater participation in the political process and more enlightened leadership is needed in all countries to allow many voices and greater interaction across boundaries, focussing on the dangers of such multipolar rivalries. The world of the G-7 is already moving to the G-20 where many voices are heard and serious discussion of differences takes place, but participatory is different from multipolar....

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Anton Harder in this Wilson Center publication of research uses correspondence between Jawaharlal Nehru and his sister Vijaylakshmi Pandit ambassador to the US in 1950, to show that the US made an offer for India to take a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. India had supported two resolutions on June 25, and June 27, first condemning the invasion by North Korea and second the organizing of a UN force of 29 countries to push back the North Korean invasion. Even though the US is not seen as actively engaging with India during that period and seeing through British eyes the colonial policies of encouraging  different powers in South Asia, that may not be true.  Who was India's foreign minister in 1950? Jawaharlal Nehru was both prime minister and foreign minister till 1964, which means there was less discussion of foreign policy than happens today during the Ukraine invasion with Jaishankar a career diplomat with 30 years experience, Rajnath Singh, and Mr. Modi, in talks with president Biden recently, and in further discussions Modi had with EU's Von der Leyen and UK's Boris Johnson, Kishida of Japan. Who was India's defense minister in 1950? Baldev Singh, a Sikh independence struggle leader was Minister of Defense for 1947-52 and tackled partition of Punjab and Kashmir issues. The rest of the years to 1957 when India faced the Chinese invasion of Tibet India's defense minister was also for most of the period Mr. Nehru, except Ayynagar in 1953, and Kailash Katju in 1955 and 1956. The controversial V.K. Krishna Menon was Defense Minister from 1957 to 1962, when Indian defenses were further neglected leading to the Chinese invasion of India in 1962, and his replacement by Yashwantrao Chavan. The purpose of this is to look back at what happened in earlier periods to understand where India stands today- and what choices it makes today. Clearly the US was looking for allies then and now. Nehru saw things from his own reading of history seeing China and India as both suffering from western invasion, not realizing that China's experience under Mao was different- that of Japanese invasion and bombing of China's major cities not just colonization of Hong Kong and other ports for trade under British trade based policies in 1850-1900. Thus a Communist Chinese version of China's defense involved taking over border regions such as Tibet putting China in direct and open opposition to India. Nehru never really grasped what was happening in Tibet and the war China fought against the Nationalists. American general Stilwell loved China deeply and had an understanding of its people as shown in Tuchman's account in her book Stilwell and the American Experience in China 1911-1945. Stilwell during that war had a better understanding of China, the strengths and weaknesses of Mao's China and of the Nationalists under Chiang, than Nehru. Some of these errors post 1950's and a concentration of foreign, defense and embassy positions in the person of Mr. Nehru and of Nehru family member such as Mrs. Pandit led to the Indian failure to act on Tibet and see it as see it for what it was -facing a Communist Mao led China that had fought the Japanese invasion as different from Bodhidharma's China of the history books. Bodhidharma's China will outlast Mao's China, yet it is Mao's China that India faces today. This also tells us that India has to think in new ways- as Lincoln said during a period when America was also making its own progress as an industrial nation in the 1860's. "The dogmas of the quiet past are not adequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise to the occasion. As our case is new, we must think anew, we must act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and we shall save our country." India's values are values of democracy heightened not just by Mohandas Gandhi's ideas with Hind Swaraj written in 1910 just as powerful in 2022, but also by the heights of Ladakh where elections are held in remote regions of the Himalayas. India's values are values that are also shared in the best that America has in its values and culture and in the defense of freedom.    ...

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A senior Indian diplomat, and former ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale, says China's action in the June 15 clash at Galwan Valley was the worst violence since 1967. He sees it as a premeditated and well thought out action. His view is that India's relations with China will deteriorate further. That this was an action by the PLA to take territory to what it sees as the LAC or border. For small tactical gains he says "China has strategically lost India." This will impact trade and other relations going forward in his view.  Nothing of this sort was expected says Bambawale. All the agreements put in place since 1993, everything for tranquillity at the border, all the mechanisms, have now collapsed. Bambawale has provided a very lucid and clear account of the relations and the border issues. He goes on to say that Chinese observers have given reasons for the Galwan clash with PLA- that India should stay away from the US and other democracies such as the European Union. Some reflection shows that the opposite has happened. And further reflection would show that the same situation was repeated in the period of transfer from British Empire to Republican India, and from Nationalist China to Communist China from the period 1947 onwards. Different perceptions and different leaderships that gave the perception of gaps between the two countries. In the 1950's after the Korean War Chinese perceptions about India could have led to the incursions that brought China to the borders of India in 1950, similar perceptions of gaps in development and capabilities could have led to the conflict in 1962. From 1993 peace prevailed with India after China entered the World Trade Organization under president Clinton in 2001 following a 10 year effort. Because the focus in China was on development after a series of crises, internal sense of a widening technological gap with the US and Europe, disagreements with the Soviet Union, and the experiments with market economy, internal struggles for democracy. With that period coming to a close as the new trading relationship has led to working class losses in factory jobs in the US, China is faced with protecting its economy as it and the US look at changing supply channels and how it affects both countries. It is a critical time for China as it faces governments in US, France, UK and Canada determined to protect their own interests in manufacturing jobs, renewing supply channels, and in technological advancement. The response is similar to that in 1962 when seen from the Communist party perspective as a gap has opened up with India following China's progress in the 30 year trading relationship with the US and Europe. That gap and the difficult situation China faces today with the US and EU in trade and technology has brought forward the Galwan clash and future clashes in Ladakh and at the border.  As Mr. Jaishnkar, India's Minister of External Affairs as well as former ambassador to China,  has pointed out this is a very different aspirational India that China faces. The same kind of grassroots development that happened in China and rapid pooling of capital, human resources and technology inputs for development is taking place in India, and will continue for the next two decades, quickly bridging any gaps in modernization between the two countries. The difference between a youthful population in India and aging population in China and Japan, is likely to add another dimension. China's Buddhist culture that came from India is not likely to go away, more likely is that China will see a revival of Buddhist ideas of wellness and living more as culture than religion. The experience with British colonialism that prevailed both in India and China, and which from its base in India caused so much grief to China during the Opium wars will recede from memory. Extending borders from historical memory of Japanese incursions into border areas in Manchuria could have led leaders after 1950 in China to extend borders to remote areas in the Arunachal region of India and communist theory books may have created the perception of defensive moves. In the context of an aspirational India similar to China, and no real intention on the part of India to extend itself in any way to China's provinces in Sichuan, this extending of borders as a defensive move will be seen as stemming from memories of Japanese incursions in the 1930's, but simply costly and not relevant in any way to China's own aspirational development and progress. ...

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Slowing car sales are expected for Detroit auto manufacturers as Japanese sales recover after the tsunami and earthquake. A major reason for higher sales was pentup demand. Sales reached an annualized 14 million level for 2012. Research firm Polk says the average time a new car was owned went up to 71.4 months, and used cars 49.9 months, in Feb 2012. This is 23% above the level of the third quarter of 2008.

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Women executives at a panel discussion sponsored by Columbia Universiy in New York, in Dec. 2014, provide ideas for getting more women in Tech fields. Ideas include, mentoring, with early education exposure to technology careers- as early as middle school. One executive says she takes in 150 female high school students to Washington D.C. for leadership training. Other ideas are to turn maternity leave into a positive feature of women's lives by letting women who do well keep their duties by delegating them to others while they are away, and making a smooth pathway back to work full time. The suggestion is to allow a gradual transition to ramp back up to full time work, and allow flexible hours, working from home. In daily work women are encouraged to look for partnerships with other areas of the organization for getting results, and being sensitive to which areas of the organization they need to build support in.

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Progressive caucus in the US House of Representatives led by Pramila Jaypal, a first time Indian American Congresswoman defeats an attempt by Josh Gottheimer of the Problem Solvers caucus to separate much of the president Biden's agenda in health, education and social policy and risk it being defeated by Senators Manchin and Sinema in the US Senate. Without the efforts on child care, education and health, climate change and social services part of the Biden Workers and Families Plan much of the Biden agenda would remain unfinished and Democratic party promises not kept. This also means that Manchin a Senator from West Virginia with a population of 1.8 million and Arizona with a population of 7.2 million, both conservative leaning Democrats could sink the entire agenda of president Biden to support American families and workers for a population of 331 million people. That two states with a population of less than 3% of the American population could sink the entire agenda of president Biden shows how fragile a situation has been created within the Democratic party to support workers and families even during the pandemic following the leadership of Carter, Clinton, and Obama Ms. Jaypal, a three term Congresswoman from Seattle, Washington state, was first elected in 2016 with an endorsement from Bernie Sanders who was the Democratic Party's leading candidate for president till the late stages of the 2020 US presidential primaries. Bernie Sanders says of Jaypal- "I think she is doing an extraordinary job. And I think the Progressive Caucus is doing an extraordinary job." Sanders founded the Progressive caucus after getting elected to the Senate from Vermont 30 years ago. Even though it is hard to imagine the Democratic party being the Democratic party without bold policies in climate change, affordable housing, reducing income disparities,  investing big in childcare, education and healthcare, attempts were being made to sink the entire Democratic party and national agenda going back to Franklin Roosevelt. Jaypal is described in the WSJ as diplomatic and firm, saying "I am so proud of our caucus; I have never seen our caucus so strong. And I am a very good vote counter also." Fifty members of the 100 member Progressive Caucus held firm in support of president Biden's original agenda without which the president would have little to show in keeping promises he made to the American people in the election and little to differentiate him from Mr. Trump who also supported infrastructure spending. Separating the infrastructure bill would have risked sinking Mr. Biden's plan for recovery of America from the pandemic and the devastating policies pursued by American presidents in the last two decades. Policies by previous presidents that have impoverished the country, created huge income disparities, weakened America in the world in trade and technological leadership, and wasted resources in foreign wars. There are no centrists or far left- these are just labels. When Ms Japal said "Let's just remember the Speaker (Nancy Pelosi) is a great champion of this agenda. I think she was trying to do as much as she could to get this done," she could have said it is Mr. Biden's own agenda pushed forward with conviction to help workers and families during the pandemic, and build a solid American recovery, restore American leadership in the world. Pramila Japypal is the first Indian American woman in the US Congress, and one of only two dozen naturalized American citizens in the US Congress. That she could play such a critical role for good in the US Congress shows that with the right convictions, determination, experience, much can be done for the common good in America and the world.   ...

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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White drives a Chrysler 300 sedan diesel powered and made for European use, fast enough to go past speed limit but still gives an average of 28 miles in city and highway driving. The EPA rating for this car is 22 miles per gallon in its US V-6 model, so the Chrysler CRD 300 made for Europe has a 27% fuel efficiency advantage over its American counterpart. White borrowed it from a friend who was showing European diesel technology in the U.S. Cleaner diesel technology is spotlighted in this test drive. Also attention is drawn to fuel availability. This fall oil companies will be required to supply Americans at the gas pump with low sulfur diesel fuels on which the diesel cars with the clean diesel technology run, for cars like the Chrysler CRD 300. Automakers from Japan, Europe and the US are looking to transfer this technology developed for Europe to the US, with some improvements to meet American environmental standards, especially in lare sedans, SUV's and pickups. The statistics for US diesel use on the road are as follows: 1. About 3-4% of light vehicles in the US run on diesel. White quotes industry executives as comfortable with a JD Power estimate of diesel use by 2010-2012, or about 6-8 year horizon of 10% of all passenger vehicles. 2. John Moulton, president of the powertrain division of Robert Bosch Gmbh, forecast diesel use by 15% of the passenger vehicles in the U.S. by 2015. Use in Europe is about 50% by comparison. 3. Usage of diesel will be highest in the bigger cars and vehicles . This is where the 20-30% savings in fuel cost would be substantial enough to cover the $2000-$6000 additional cost for the diesel powered vehicles using the latest clean diesel technology. DaimlerChrysler is already moving forward with coming up with versions of the diesel models used in Europe for the American market. VW currently is the leader in the American market. About 20% of VW's sold in April 2006 use diesel. This is going up every year 12% in 2004, 14% in 2005. In 2008 VW will have all its mainstream models available in all 50 states in diesel versions. ...