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The higher US tariffs ranging from 41% to 345% on Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia will make it difficult for China to use these countries for factories that then dump highly subsidized product  (solar panels, other product) in US markets, at prices that are below production cost. India and the US are nearing a trade deal that gives India a chance to become a major manufacturing center for fair trade supplying the US. India will plan a partnership with US in which US goals and manufacturing are supported while at the same time making some parts at cost competitive with China.

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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

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How India finds and trains its youngest sports athletes is shown in this report from Fatehabad by Andrew Amson. A bricklayer's daughter Pooja set the Indian national record at 1.82 metres in high jump by winning silver at the Asian U-20 Games in South Korea. The amazing thing is that coaches discovered her talent for jumping even though she entered in training for yoga. With limited facilities she trained with bundles of haysticks for the pit to fall on and a bamboo stick to go over. This is also a story of how India is matching the development of sports of its neighbors Japan, China and South Korea by giving young people from every background and income level a chance to compete at the highest level. 

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The tech monopolies have operated with impunity with one overriding goal of maximizing profits for far too long. Under Theodore Roosevelt the solution was to breakup the oil monopolies of the 1890's. Fighting Tammany Hall corruption in the New York governing structure was just one of TR's achievements, he also fought for better living conditions for workers in New York, for breaking up Standard Oil's grip on the oil industry, and worked hard to rebuild the American Navy to stand up to the European Colonial Powers who impoverished India and China. America can be proud of TR,  and Joe Stilwell who fought the Japanese in China with deep understanding and concern for ordinary Chinese and their struggle against poverty, the wall of indifference of the colonial powers to their condition.

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Indian security officials say Chinese troops have moved back several miles at 3 disputed border patrol points in one of the Himalayan areas. Reduction is not substantial but it shows intent of the two armies said the official cited in the WSJ report. China also removed two dozen armored vehicles. India has also withdrawn some of its vehicles and troops from the front lines. This is after the two sides met for de-escalating tensions. In 2017 for 2 months there was a standoff in  a stretch of land near Bhutan. This one is near Ladakh region in the high Himalayan mountains. The border is 2000 miles long in the mountains of Tibet, Ladakh, Bhutan. This one was near the Pangong Tso lake which is pictured in the WSJ report at a high altitude. India has tried to match Chinese road building and infrastructure efforts in the area in recent years.

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The American Institute in Taipei, Taiwan, acts as the U.S. embassy in Taiwan. It is about half the size of the embassy in Beijing- with 450 diplomats and is set on a hillside in Taipei over 16 acres. The $250 million complex was planned during the Bush administration and built during the Obama administration. The U.S. withdrew diplomatic recognition of Taiwan as representing China in 1978 in an effort to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War. After the emergence of China as an Asian power the U.S. has upgraded its relations with Taiwan, under the agreement which provides U.S. support for defense of Taiwan. Under president Trump the Taiwan relationship has grown with president Trump's call to the new president of Taiwan following recent elections. 

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"We will never abandon the American worker and her community wherever it is located," says president Biden's head of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). He tells the Economic Policy Institute that many economists had questioned the policies that hurt American workers even as early as 1996. He joined EPI in 1992 and says he has followed the trade debate since then and heard the warnings as China entered the WTO in 2001 after years of negotiations in the last year of the Clinton administration.  Common sense questions were asked- Why asked Thea Lee now at the Labor Department is it good to have protection of intellectual property rights but not labor rights under NAFTA. On TPP and FTA's or free trade agreements in general he who writes the rules gets to benefit from them. Free trade having far less to do with free trade as generalized is the first thing he noticed when coming to Washington. Certain business groups captured the task of writing the rules in TPP  to benefit them.   ...

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This piece in the WSJ misses a deep understanding of India just as the US media failed to understand China in the years of Japanese imperialism in Asia. India with 1.4 billion people and Indonesia with over 300 million people form 1.7 billion people moving towards modernization by 2047. Much of this will accelerate and be achieved by 2037 by which time India will have the third largest economy in the world and have one that is likely to surpass China in its dynamism and youthful energies. DJT's first responsibility was to America and the World- to bring a quick end to the war in South Asia, and the presence of nuclear weapons is a factor too important for the president to not take this responsibility seriously. DJT also made it clear that the economy is where it is all going to happen- the modernization of India and Indonesia in the way the US had helped each of these nations modernize- Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, and now India over 1900-2037. The people of South Asia fully support the US president in this endeavor. ...

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DJT 1.0 was led on the tariffs policy by USTR Robert Lighthizer, who had experience negotiating with the Japanese negotiators in the Reagan era. He is today respected by  Republicans, is seen in an important role in economic policy and to prepare the tariff policy actions of the new DJT administration. Lighthizer prefers to get Congress to take action with legislation. He also believes that domestic manufacturing will make gains with new and higher tariffs on Chinese imports. Lighthizer policy is falsely compared with Hoover Tariffs Act of 1930 when world trade was 9% of world GDP, today it is 63% of world GDP, and where under Hoover in 1930 the tariffs were across the board all countries 20,000 goods. Under Lighthizer on specific products where dumping is happening -steel, aluminium, autos, with Japan in 1960-70 or China 2000-2020 targeting American industries + technologies for takeover. And falsely when it comes to raising costs to each American family on average by $4000 a year by economists. The conventional view for business for 2000-2016 through Bush and Obama favoring free trade did not take into account the unusual experience of China which entered WTO in 1990, then expanded in a way unprecedented in history at 10-12% growth rates for 15 years destroying American manufacturing with dumping, having support of outshoring by companies in the US, and not giving reciprocal treatment for exports from the US to China. China also had unrestricted access to US technologies in this type of trade. Lighthizer's approach was to specifically address this problem not a general across the board tariffs on all goods (20,000 goods) on all countries as with the Hoover Tariffs Act in 1930. Lighthizer's approach adopted by DJT called for reciprocal trade response with China as the US had already done with Japan, not unilateral across the board tariffs, and when world trade had advanced to about zero tariff rates. And falsely compared to Hoover 1930 Act because under Hoover tariffs were 29-40%. raised to 60% when world trade was small, was 9% of GDP. The Biden administration has tacitly agreed with Lighthizer's vision by not reversing DJT tariffs. A new higher tariff will probably be selective based on the industry, country and what goals the US has set under the new administration for that industry. Some of the tariffs revenue may also be used for tax cuts. ...

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Adidas plans to open 2500 stores in China by 2015, including 500 in 2010, up from 112 today. Upscale outlets planned for the larger cities in China. The distribution will widen to 1400 cities by 2015, from 500 currently, by moving to smaller towns and cities in China's interior. Adidas also plans to ramp up its presence in basketball, a sport that Nike emphasizes. In China it will offer the NEO brand in smaller cities, targeting teens with prices about 50% of other Adidas brands. The strategy is to introduce Adidas products to people with lower incomes at lower price points, a strategy being used by Nestle, P&G and Unilever in consumer products for emerging markets. Adidas has opened an online retail store with Taobao.com and plans to bring in $500 in internet sales by 2015. Still North America with 14% growth will be Adidas's largest market, and sales in China are not likely to overtake sales in North America by 2015, according to CEO Hainer.

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As tensions increase with Japan Xi turns to the US and has discussion on Ukraine and Taiwan with US president DJT. Xi looks for ways to build a better understanding with the US on a unification of China with Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi calls DJT November 23, 2025. In the background the US 28 Point Peace Plan for Ukraine is being discussed with Ukraine and the EU.

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Brazil's economy is forecast to contract by 2% in 2015, the currency has lost about one third its value and the stock market is down 22% in the last year. This follows the decline in demand for Brazil's commodities exports as China growth slows down. Experts say Brazil is now seeing another boom bust cycle similiar to boom-bust cycles in the past, such as the 1966-73 boom followed by years of hyperinflation and stagnation. Brazil's exports to China declined 17% in the first 7 months of 2015. The crisis is in many ways similiar to crises in other emerging markets dependent on commodities exports. The resources boom leads to overvaluation of the currency, and decline in development of manufacturing away from dependence on commodities exports. Other errors rise from complacency and politics prevalent in such periods. These errors include mismanagement of resources with poor resource allocation decisions such as spending on soccer stadiums in cities in the northeast while basic bus services remained underfinanced in large urban areas, large overspending by the government using state owned bank BNDES to offer rates at below market rates, a credit fueled boom and credit card binge for households, and a reversal of capital flows from the U.S. and Europe with the sharp decline in investment climate. There is a severe loss of confidence in the government of Dilma Rousseff with her approval rating as low as 8%. Corruption scandals at Petrobras show close links between the Workers Party of Rousseff and executives, with about $2 billion in misused funds. Brazil, like other emerging markets such as Russia and India, have taken some lessons from the 1997 financial crisis by setting aside large foreign exchange reserves for a crisis. Brazil's reserves of $397 billion help it cushion the effects with funding of the safety net and support to industries to avoid large layoffs. Other problems not tackled as in Mexico, India, and other emerging markets, are the weak educational system, and poor infrastructure, that create bottlenecks for growth. Brazil could face a lost decade after the debt overhang, decline in foreign investment and commodity export generated revenues. ...

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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As president Jinping begins a second five year term his focus is on the small communities like Chashan, only a 6 hour drive from Beijing, that were neglected in the rush to industrialization. He has vowed to get rid of poverty in China by 2020. About 43 million people live in rural communities that have mostly older people and live on 95 cents a day. There is another challenge say experts which is the much larger popuation that lives in rural and urban areas- including urban migrants without property and residence rights- who live on less than $5.50 per day, $165 a month, according to the World Bank. This is about 1070 yuan per month, or in Indian rupees for a comparison with India- which was at a similar stage of development in 1990- of Rs 10,000 per month. About 40% of China's population or 560 million people are in this group. With a rapidly aging society as a result of the earlier one child policy, China faces the risk of not advancing from the level of a middle income country, in the way that South Korea and Japan have moved to levels similar to Western Europe and the U.S. As China's growth level slows and with an aging society this remains a major challenge. As this report shows there is great pressure on local officials to eliminate the poverty level of people living below $30 or about 200 yuan a month, as targets are set at local levels and corruption weakens the effort. There is concern at the lack of an effort to improve the living conditions of the 200 million rural migrants living in cities, who under China's "hukou" system are not considered residents and are not getting education and health benefits. ...

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Political ads in the 2010 election campaign that point to the loss of jobs to China. A big shift in public opinion on the subject of US-China trade and jobs at home. This will increase pressure on the Obama administration for serious results in the negotiations for the appreciation of the yuan.

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Zhu Changhong plays a key role in investing China's $3.5 trillion dollars in foreign reserves. He is part of the management at China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange or SAFE, a division of the central bank. He maintains a low profile, yet he has played a critical role in shifting investment into Japanese and U.S. equities and bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund, reducing the risk exposure to U.S. Treasury's as the U.S. Federal Reserve changes monetary policy. From 45% of China's foreign reserves invested in U.S. government bonds, or $1.11 trillion, in June 2010, SAFE under Zhu's guidance reduced the allocation to 35%, or $1.14 trillon, in June 2012, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. He has an interesting background. Coming from Anhui province, he studied physics at the University of Chicago, then shifted to life as a trader in financial markets at Allianz's PIMCO investment firm. After spending 20 years in the U.S., Zhu returned in 2009 as chief investment officer of SAFE. He was drawn back to China by another expatriate Yi Gang, a SAFE director who was an economics professor at Indiana University- Purdue University, Indianapolis....

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DJT action to add another 50% tariff on China by Wednesday April 9, 2025 if it does not withdraw it's retaliatory tariff by Tuesday April 8.

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Instead of the long process of negotiating trade deals with individual countries the US negotiates specific agreement designed to include friendly nations in the provisions of the EV manufacturing subsidies for making in America. This type of agreement lets EU and separately Japan benefit from subsidies offered to EV manufacturers in the US. The agreement with Japan is designed to get larger access to EV battery minerals for US and Japan in which China has an early lead. Under the agreement minerals sourced from Japan qualify for the $7500 subsidy for EV vehicles made in the US provided under the Inflation Reduction Act.

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Xiaomi is China's leading brand. It is very different from other companies in China and America. It is tightly controlled by its founder Lei Jun who has built a loyal following for the brand  through fan clubs and creating an enthusiastic following. Because the firm is run by founder Lei Jun it can make quick decisions to enter a market. Lei Jun was a computer science student in Wuhan in 1987 as China opened up to the world.  By 2017- in three years from being zero in the Indian market place in 2014- Xiaomi had become the largest smartphone company in India. The company was launched in 2010. Profit margins are thin about 1% in a very competitive pricing market.  Metrics are based on revenue per user of $9 per user from an installed base of 190 million smartphone users, spending 54 minutes a day using Xiaomi's app, game and other services, or 20% of the phone use time. Revenue per user comes from advertising, and from commissions on the apps and games it sells to its user base. In 2015 Xiaomi had a loss, in 2016 sales dropped, in 2017 new products led to a resurgence in the market with sales increasing 68%. As Xiaomi goes into its IPO, experts say much of the $10 billion from the IPO could go into reinvestment as Xiaomi reinvents itself and moves into other internet business. ...

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Reagan words taken out of historical context by Ontario ad- Lighthizer as Reagan's USTR negotiating with Japan experienced Japan's efforts to unfairly capture world markets. It was only after years of negotiation that Lighthizer was able to get Japan to play by fair rules of world trade. In 2025 Jamieson as US Trade Representative for the US is Lighthizer's deputy in prior negotiations with Asian trade partners who have unfairly gamed the system to their advantage. Canada, Mexico and China are misrepresenting the facts to show they play by the rules when they clearly and blatantly flout world fair trading practices that lead to losses for American workers. The reality is that the Smoot Hawley tariffs by the senators of states that were not industrial states in the US inthe 1930's were adopted by the reckless atitude of Herbert Hoover as president and by senators who had no grasp of world trade. Senator Harry Truman from Missouri as president made correcting these mistakes a top priority in the late 1940's. Today's abuse of the system by Asian countries and Canada, Mexico have nothing to do with the tariffs of the 1930's- America wants all nations to play by the rules which over time will create a stronger world trading system. ...

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Softbank suffers a loss of $6.5 billion after placing bad bets on WeWork startup. Is there massive capital misallocation in capital markets as they are operating now, with waste and misallocation leading to depriving other productive investments for society's benefit being funded. 

During this period of misallocation in the way capital markets are functioning in allocating scarce capital, infrastructure investments in the U.S. and Europe have been badly neglected. The U.S. and Europe now lag behind China in 5G making this an issue with implications for society, and for protecting the public interest.

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Looking back at China in 1945 Bernstein's book on the period shows the difficult choices faced by Truman as he confronted the problem of dealing with Chiang and Mao in the period following the Japanese invasion and defeat. With the Iron Curtain beginning to come down in Europe, Truman had to take action against the spread of Communism. At the same time Truman did not want to get America involved directly in the conflict because of the nature of the civil war in China following the Japanese invasion and defeat. Christiansen says that if any side put China on the road to communism it was the Japanese imperialists with their invasion of China. Truman was simply choosing between a bad choice of negotiating a solution and ending up supporting Chiang, with a worse choice of getting directly involved in the conflict. That choice of direct involvement came a few years later with the Korean War, by which time America was committed to defending Western Europe from communism.

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Otis Elevator is moving a plant based in Nogales, Mexico, back to the U.S. This plant was moved to Mexico in 1998 for cost reasons. Now Otis CEO, Didier Michaud-Daniel, says producing at a new South Carolina plant will cost less than Mexico. Logistics and freight costs are 17.3% less in the U.S. than Mexico, and an additional 20% in savings come from "efficiencies" gained by having all its white collar workers associated with elevator design and production. Most companies that manufacture in China and Mexico keep their design and engineering jobs in the the U.S. It is not clear to what extent American companies have considered all the costs of separating design and engineering from manufacturing, including the opportunities for close cooperation possible in one location that are lost when everything is so spread out. At Otis toolmakers in Dallas and engineers and designers located in Indiana and Arizona traveled to the Nogales, Mexico plant. This can be especially important when as in Otis's case the new plant in Florence, South Carolina, plans the launch of a new generation of elevator designs. In this case there is an added benefit by making it easier for customers to visit the plant and look at the product. The new plant will have more automation and use fewer workers on the factory floor. The new factory will employ 360 workers including white collar workers, the same as the Nogales, Mexico, plant with a lower number of factory floor workers. ...

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Biden nominates Gen. C. Q. Brown, US Air Force chief to the position of chairman joint chiefs. WSJ looks at Brown's record and the needs of the US Air Force during a period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and following tensions in Asia over Taiwan and the South China Sea. A recent interview with a former Defense Minister of Japan on NHK television shows these tensions are affecting Japan's sense of lack of preparedness. WSJ also gives today an interview with Henry Kissinger about American's lack of belief in its institutions yet makes little effort to highlight the importance of correcting severe problems of literacy with only one third of eighth graders passing NAEP reading comprehension tests.

 

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At a time when multilateral financial and other institutions are not working properly on behalf of countries in the Global South, the G20 is seen as the place where the poor countries can find a voice. The African Union was admitted to the G20 nations with the support of India and the US at the New Delhi Summit. Before this the only nation from Africa was South Africa. The other countries are the original G8- US, Canada, Germany, France, European Union, Britain, Italy, Japan. These countries represented the already advanced economies. To these nations were added the newly advanced economies of Russia, South Korea and China, Australia for 11 economies. The 7 rapidly developing nations added are India, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.