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Biden will visit France for D-day and Italy for G-7 meetings in June, followed by a television debate in Atlanta. The concern about families struggling to make a living with high housing costs and grocery bills continues at the White House and president Biden says he is concerned telling one Congressman- "I care. I know people are hurting."  The Biden policies have worked for unemployment and for economic growth as the US is the only advanced economy in the world to return to pre-pandemic growth. Economic growth is now forecast at 1.7% for 2024 says WSJ, higher than the 1% forecast in January. Younger people in particular and newer voters who did not vote in 2020 are not informed about the economy and only see the difficulty making ends meet in living costs. These are the young people president Biden is making an effort to reach.

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This month president Biden signed into law 100% tariff on China made EV's and 50% tariff on solar panels. The Guardian describes the hollowing out of factory towns in England such as Sheffield and the same in the US and Europe, which was a disaster for these communities dependent on manufacturing. There is now a sense that heavily subsidized products made in Asia should not be allowed to deindustrialize the US and take jobs away from these communities across the US. Trade has to be fair before it can be called free trade. Wars in Asia,  trade that ripped up American manufacturing, monopolies and burdensome pricing of pharmaceuticals and healthcare, lack of investment in infrastructure and public services, shows the deeply flawed policy pursued by presidents from Reagan and Bush to Clinton and Obama that have reduced the standard of living of the American worker and the American people.

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Anxieties about illegal immigration and cost of living propel Trump to a win in the 2024 presidential elections. He wins more votes from younger people, from rural voters, and from Latinos, black people without a college degree. 

Paradoxically the end of the pandemic, vaccines, and improvement in health care may have led to voters focusing on the cost of living as an element that was not tackled under the Biden administration. Housing and grocery costs were allowed to surge and tech monopolies operated as before. Even union leaders were not fully convinced about Democratic support because of the changes in the Democratic party since Clinton. 

A general sense of unease about immigration was not tackled early on in the Biden administration first 2 years when the surge from Venezuela became evident following the collapse of its economy. 

 

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By large margins voters have favorable opinions of Harris and Walz. For 52% of the WSJ survey Harris has the right temperament to be president, for Trump this was 42%. 40% of voter sample have unfavorable views of Walz compared to 50% for Vance. 82% of the voter sample say they know enough information about Harris to make a firm opinion. Even though media presents it as people not so familiar with Harris. A big difference is seen in views about Project 2025- only 9% have favorable views of Project 2025 that would terminate civil servants, restrict abortion access, and end the Department of Education. 57% have unfavorable views of Project 2025, 53% very unfavorable views.

These are general trends. Harris is changing perceptions on her handling of the economy and cost of living by outlining her plans for specific action on housing, child care and food costs.

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The leading Democrat on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, Elizabeth Warren, says she is eager to work with DJT, Tim Scott and Republicans in Congress to make life affordable for working families and to rebuild the middle class. She says Republicans and Democrats have thir reasons for th housing shortages and hgih costs of housing, and both are right. Republicans pointing to the supply shortage and Democrats pointing to the price fixing and corporate landlords.

On DJT proposing to cap credit card interest rates at 10% Warren says she will work with Republicans to make it happen.

Warren cites personal experience as reason she is at her job. Her dad lost his job and almost lost his home. This is why in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis caused by banks engaging in speculation she says she became Senator and why she is fighting to make life affordable for all Americans.

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Joanne Bauer is president of Kimberly-Clark Health Care. She describes her experience with other cultures during her global business trips since 1995.

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Chrysler plans to set up separate showrooms and separate employees for the Fiat 500 at about 210 sales outlets.

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The basic outlines of new health care legislation takes shape as Senators Dodd and Kenedy come up with a plan that scales down subsidies to low-income people to buy insurance. Attached to their revised outline is a budget office analysis thatprojects the plan costing $611 billion over 10 years and with expected changes from the Senate Finance Committee would cover 97 percent of all Americans. And earlier plan received much criticism because the Congressional Budget Office estimated its cost at $1 trillion over 10 years and left 37 million Americans uninsured. In addition there is the revised Medicaid expansions for aid to the poor that would add a couple of humndred billion dollars to the total tab. The administration's goal is to keep the cost down to $1 trillion over 10 years. The legislation as it stands includes the public option which is designed to control insurance costs. Mr. Obama said this week that "the public option would keep insurance companies honest." Employer mandated insurance is part of the Kennedy-Dodd legislation proposal. Employers with 25 or more workerswould have to provide coverage or pay the government an annual fee of $750 for each full-time worker and $375 for each part-time worker. The government pays the startup costs for the public insurance option as a loan to be repaid, and premiums would make the option self-sufficient....

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The fire at Notre Dame Cathedral and the burning of the spire, other parts of the cathedral, leads to lead contamination. The fire with burning of 460 tons of lead from the roof and spire led to scattering of dust to other parts of Paris, to neighborhoods, schools, day care centers, according to this report in the New York Times. The government plans to rebuild the cathedral in 5 years, but this report says not enough attention has gone to the issue of contamination from the fire, and the public has very little idea of the potential dangers to health.

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In this WSJ op-ed essay William Galston says U.S. prestige and influence in the world has suffered under the presidency of Mr. Trump. The special relationship with Britain and Europe is at risk. Neighborly relations with Mexico are a thing of the past. Embracing questionable regimes is seen as failing America's respect for democracy. Squandering the moral authority and prestige of the U.S. will have long term consequences as China and Russia have increased their influence, says Galston. He points to Trump's attitude of indifference, he probably does not care, says Galston.

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The U.S. economy moved ahead at 4% growth in GDP for the second quarter 2014. The qualifier is that of this 1.66 percentage points was for increasing inventories, so that GDP growth excluding this was 2.3%. Still a large improvement over the negative 0.9% GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2014. Personal consumption expenditures growth was broadly even between clothing, housing and cars, contributing most of the 2.3% growth. Imports outpaced exports. Business and housing investment was modest for a small part of this 2.3%. Expansion of state and local government spending made up for decline in federal spending.

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US president Biden has asked Democrats to first reach an agreement on a social and climate policy package and only then vote on an infrastructure bill. Republicans have supported investments in infrastructure, but not supported the social and climate policy package. Democrats progressive wing supports infrastructure but only after the social and climate policy package is approved. To pull together the different groups in the Democratic party and win support among some Republicans requires a skillful balancing act bringing in support from all sides in the national interest. The Biden plan for $3.5 trillion for Build Back Better has a$1 billion infrastructure plan, and a plan for workers and families on social issues confronting the country including child care, education, income related to reduce disparities, and healthcare. It also includes investments in green energy so reduce emissions to tackle climate change. Because Democrats have a thin majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives this balancing act will also require Democrats to reduce the size of the package to less than $3.5 trillion bringing in the most essential components for investment in 2021-2022 and making additional investments in the following years. ...

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NY Times analysis shows upper and middle income groups support 33 year old Zohran Mamdani,  black and Hispanic residents support Cuomo for NYC Mayor. Mamdani has a good ground presence with 50,000 volunteers knocking on 1.6 million doors in an unprecedented effort in one American city as it became less and less affordable (WSJ). Paradoxically large numbers of higher income resident and middle income residents favored Mamdani over Cuomo, and Cuomo did better in black and minority neighborhoods. Mamdani promised better housing, freezing stabilized housing rents and going after landlords who do not fix rental properties, free buses, and city run lower cost grocery stores, free child care. For the funding Mamdani says $5 billion by making corporate tax 11.5% similar to New Jersey, and by a wealth tax of 2% on incomes over $1 million (which at $20,000 would not affect their standard of living), as the property owners supported Mamdani. Mamdani is a immigrant who came to America from Kampala, Uganda at the age of 7 with Indian parents. His father taught at Columbia University, Mamdani attended Bowdoin College in Maine. ...

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The Affordable Care Act or Obamacare gave families of 4 with incomes of less than 125,000 or single income less than $60,000 a chance to buy insurance with federal subsidies. When these subsidies were increased under the IRA Act of president Biden the enrolment has doubled in the last 5 years to $24 million. These subsidies expire in 2025. Under the One Big Beautiful Act the policy of subsidies for ACA is not being renewed when it expires in 2025. This shows the band aid approach of Obama to healthcare and the lack of a comprehensive approach. The policy on migrants during the Obama and Biden administration also stretched public funding resources. Insurance companies now plant to make up for the los of subsidies from the government by raising prices for this subpopulation in a broken healthcare system in the US by 15-20%. This report in WSJ shows a young woman on ACA insurance in Illinois with a payment of $590 a month to Blue Cross of Illinois facing a new payment of $678, almost the size of a mortgage. ...

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India's Foreign Minister told a conference that China's forward deployments at Galwan in violation of 1993 and 1996 agreements was an attempt to change the Line of Actual Control. China after years of peaceful development under previous administrations, during which China had gained from the trade relationship with the US and foreign investment from the US business community, sought  to put India at a disadvantage using its larger economy and technological assets obtained through American business assistance. This was done by making forward deployments right at the Indian border to change the Line of Actual Control in progressive steps. Jaishankar made it very clear. "It is hard work, very patient work, but we are very clear on one point, which is we will not allow any unilateral attempt by China to change the status quo or alter the LAC. I do not care how long it takes, how many rounds we do, how hard we have to negotiate- this is something we are very clear of." Going back to the period of independence with Nehru in 1947- China's occupation of Tibet was an occupation of a peaceful country that led to the situation that India faces today of a border stretching from east to west on the Himalayas that faces China. Faced with the partition and refugees from that partition India under Nehru was not in a position to respond effectively to that occupation. Does China gain anything from being at that border through the occupation of Tibet is a serious question? Why? Because it faces a Vedanta and Buddha driven culture and people with population of 1.8 billion stretching to the Indonesian islands that were and still are the fundamental source of  China's own Buddhist culture and tradition.  US business has allied with one country after another Japan, China and now India. The US has faced wars with Japan, and sometimes in a failed attempt to understand the aspirations of  Southern Asia allied with British ideas of the region which were based on the policies of British Empire to divide the region on religious and language, caste based barriers. US business also lacked a true perception of the importance of working class and families in the US as it sent factories and surrendered its own manufacturing to China. The world is now changing following the pandemic and new supply chains and manufacturing policies of the US are being structured. It is in this context where India's pace of economic growth and technological advancement will change its capabilities and its capacity to meet the aspirations of 1.8 billion people in Asia with a common tradition and culture. It is in this context that one can ask the question does China have anything to gain from the occupation of Tibet and being on the border with a country and cultural tradition of 1.8 billion people stretching across South and South east Asia?  ...

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A stroke, a tumor, or live disease mean parents are taking care of children. WSJ shows one family in Woodbridge, Virginia coping with a son in the 50's with dementia. The Naitonal Alliance for Caregiving estimate is there are 3.1 million elderly Americans caring for a son or a daughter.

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The US Senate filibuster rule that requires 60 votes for the budget to pass is a relic of the civil rights days, today it prevents Republicans from ending the shutdown by majority vote. Republicans used it when Democrats controlled the House and Senate and Senate Majority Leader Thune does not want to drop the filibuster as it acts to ensure no hasty legislation or budget is passed without some form of overall consensus. It also means that situations such as a government shutdown can happen when the opposition party in the Senate uses it to make it demands be met. In this case Democrats Schumer and Jeffries are asking Republicans to include money for subsidies for the Obama Affordable Care Act enrollees- about 22 million people signed up for this part of the ACA to receive generous subsidies for healthcare. These subsidies are not part of the Big Beautiful Bill of DJT that passed Congress and was signed into law. Unions and airline executives are calling on Democrats to end the shutdown as it disrupts air traffic at airports, and leads to cuts in SNAP and other benefits, and to lack of pay checks for government employees. ...

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Germany's Merz is bringing historic change to Germany that it has not seen since reunification in 1990. Understated and underestimated Merz is different from the career politician chancellors of the past. Merz is a businessperson who headed the German branch of the investment fund Black Rock and from this experience has a keen understanding of the economy, of American and European business, and a direct commonsense approach to issues from defense to modernization. In short he is direct, speaks clearly, and action oriented. Within 5 months DJT has acted on tariffs and a level playing field in world trade and on a new budget with priorities for defense and tax cuts. Merz has in 2 months removed the constitutional debt brake of Merkel, corrected policy errors on illegal migration, passed 5% of GDP on defense and gained approval of added borrowing for 129 billion dollars in 2030, 4 times the 33 billion in 2024 to invest in modernization of Germany's failing infrastructure. Together Merz and DJT have stood up for the principle of no nuclear weapons in Iran, and the refocus of South and Southwest Asia on economic development from tragic and senseless wars. ...

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Colombia's GDP is $350 billion, in 2025 Venezuela's is $50 billion. Socialism under Chavez imitating Simon Bolivar as shown here starts out well with more housing, health care reaching poorer neighborhoods and parts of the population that were ignored. But only till 2011 in the early years. As mismanagement, corrupt cronies take over the nationalized enterprises, petroleum company fails to invest, and mismanagement of the economy sets in, educated classes leave the country in the class warfare, the results are disastrous. As much as 20-30% of the population leaves, hyperinflation, bad relations with the US, leading to the worst humanitarian disaster in the American continent since 1900.  It shows that the educated classes of every nation bear a major responsibility to  create a healthier society at the beginning so that the glimmers of hope of free services lead to the wrong people ending up in power and mismanagement on a massive scale destroying everything. New York City's educated classes should shoulder the responsibilities that people like Felix Rohatyn as head of MAC describes in his book- Bold Endeavors, that is the true spirit of the Nation (2009). ...

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Trade is just one aspect of the Biden Economic plan. It covers US manufacturing and jobs, Climate Change Action and Renewable Energy, Cost of Living and Wages for workers, Interest rates and inflation, and Capital Allocation with government partnering with the private sector in key industries such as electric cars, solar panels. It has the overwhelming support of most Americans- seven out of 10 Americans favor it polls show. What is described here in the Washington Post as a change from decades of trade policy since Reagan/Bush, Clinton/Obama, is also a response to the loss of key midwestern states by Democrats to Trump in thepresidential election of 2016, and the upheavals for democracy that Biden calls the struggle for the soul of the nation on the White House website. Biden is simply saying that the old policies were a mistake, a huge mistake, and Biden is correcting the Trump response which was loud but lacked the substance that is in the Biden plan through capital allocation in size and government actions to back this up. In this move he now has the support of both Democrats and Republicans. As Greg Ip has pointed out in the WSj no one during the Clinton administration when it engaged China with the World Trade Organization on trade imagined China would replace America as the dominant nation in manufacturing, the size and th scale also affected the climate, the environment in China, and created huge inequalities in the US and China that both nations are trying to correct, Biden in the US and Xi in China. It could even be said these policies were a failure because the size and scale simply overwhelmed everything else with growth rates in China of 12-14%, and the fallout in the near collapse of the economy in the years ahead from hypergrowth.  ...

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Policies and actions taken today to reduce future consumption and to conserve oil will create expectations for lower prices in the future in relation to today's price. It will lower price pressures as these expectations get embedded, and as this makes it more profitable to produce more oil rather than leave it in the ground. In addition see the supply of Iraqi oil, and efforts to reverse the oil supply situation in Iran which may happen with a different administration in the US. The reduction in fuel subsidies in Iran would lower oil consumpion in Iran. Efforts to reverse years of decline in Mexican oil fields, and increase supplies in the US by drilling in new areas, would create new supplies. While supply would see changes, demand would see a new fuel efficient car fleet on the streets in several years, and better use of mass transit and rail transit, and oil conservation across the board, this would then create anew and favorable dynamic. But look for oil prices to stabilize at lower levels in relation to current levels of about 140 and higher as it rises in 2008 and 2009 till new expectations get embedded, and not a sharp decline in prices, as pressures from the developing world's demand will continue for years to come. Think a billion people being absorbed over time into urban type economies....

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Former president Lula da Silva of Brazil is sentenced to 10 years in prison on corruption charges. The charges are that Mr da Silva and his wife were illegally given about $1.1 million in improvements from a construction company for a beachfront apartment. The construction company was able to get lucrative contracts from the state oil company Petrobras. Many of Brazil's politicians are under investigation. The former speaker of the Brazil parliament, Eduardo Cunha, was sentenced to 15 years in jail for money laundering and corruption. The current president Mr. Temer is also under investigation. A culture where such activity was accepted had developed, and this effort started with a small investigation called "Operation Car Wash" in a smaller Brazilian city named Curitiba. Young lawyers determined to set a higher standard and fight Brazil corruption pursued the case that led upto the higher echelons of Brazilian government, the construction industry, and the state oil company Petrobras. ...

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As health care markets are slowing in western countries and price pressures are increasing Phillips is moving aggressively in emerging market countries like Brazil and India. It s market share in emerging market countries is 18.5% and it wants to push this upto 25%. And health care is becoming more important to Phillips as it scales back from consumer electronics. To understand and meet the different needs of these countries Phillips is acquiring local companies and redesigning its products so that they meet basic functions at a much lower price than the same product sold in western countries.