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China and Japan agree to jointly develop gas fields in the East China sea.

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Worldwide coronavirus vaccine development and distribution is covered in the The guardian. There are surprising results in a 2019 Lancet study about how strongly people in each country think vaccines are safe. Only 17% of people in Japan and Lithuania think vaccines are safe. Most of Eastern Europe, some western European countries, Russia and China are shown as countries where about half of the people have doubts about the safety compared to 87% in Bangladesh and Uganda. In India and most of Africa people think vaccines are safe says this report showing the Lancet study results in a graphic.

Vaccines once developed will require cold storage for distribution and adminstering the vaccine. Some vaccines may require ultra cold storage of -60 degrees  or -80 degrees centigrade which may be hard to find in many countries. Most of the cold storage containers available have already been acquired by countries.

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On foreign policy the new German government of Olaf Scholz seeks to build a stronger European Union. Scholz will also follow a policy of close ties with the US. On relations with China Scholz has not stated much. Greens party foreign minister Baerbock's views and Scholz's views suggest a close relationship with the US - a call with president Biden will follow visits to Paris and Brussels. Scholz says "It is now clear what binds us together," referring to democratic values.

Video of all members of the new German cabinet is shown in DW.com, individually with each minister's background, part of the new government of SPD's Olaf Scholz. Wolfgang Schmidt is Chief of Staff and Minister for Special Affairs for Mr. Scholz. Vice Chancellor and Economy+ Climate minister is Robert Habeck. Education, Digital and Transportation Infrastructure, Finance, went to the FDP. Other ministries were divided between the Greens and the SPD. 

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During a critical 4 weeks in March 9 to April 9, 2025 Germany finds itself without a newly elected government following elections Feb 23, 2025. Only on April 9 is a new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition government in place led by CDU chancellor Merz. Tariffs came to the forefront, the critical issues of world trade and the effect on stock markets, without an elected government in place in Berlin to speak for the European Union and participate in discussions.  Japan's Ishiba and India's Modi offered the US some support as it sought to restore the world trading system to where it was before the serious distortions from China joining the WTO. Much of it the result of American companies outshoring American manufacturing and turning their backs on American workers, and the dignity and pride of workers who rebuilt the US and Europe, and Asia after the Depression and the Second World War.

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Elon Musk of Tesla says the number of fake and spam accounts is "wildly higher" than the 5% that Twitter says. He wants to terminate the agreement with Twitter on grounds that Twitter made "materially inaccurate  representations." Twitter is planning to file a lawsuit to compel Mr. Musk to keep the agreement. 

Mr. Musk's Tesla Motors lost a third of its value during the period of the agreement. The slow growth in the US economy and in China presents problems for Tesla.

Mr. Musk's statement about social media as the future of civilization is more evidence of the kind of statements that are thrown around these days with a complete misconception of what civilization, health, moral wellbeing, even common sense are about.
 

 

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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Criticism of China by Obama and Clinton ahead of Ohio primary March 4, 2008.

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Issues raised by the huge mismatch between revenues and investment for AI. $400 billion estimated investment by 5 Tech firms in 2025 alone with revenue of about $40 billion and huge uncertainty about when AI will produce returns. Articles seen this week of November 17 in the WSJ and NYT on this issue, podcasts, discussions in other media outlets. Could this lead to a dot com bubble type economic crisis? Could that lead to a recession? Alongside these articles another article in the WSJ on Nov 17 shows the benefits small firms get by using AI, benefits which are on the fringes of their business, not essential but with some experimenting firm owners/managers able to tweak AI information for use in business. Nothing significant which firms will pay much money for. The uncertainty is a major factor. Should geopolitics trump all these concerns? Is the competition with China require this scale of investment, and is China following a more utilitarian approach as reported in a WSJ article this month, of investing in AI in a utilitarian way targeting its use in improving manufacturing, improving infrastructure, and not wildly throwing money at experimental uses that are unlikely to yield much result. In geopolitical sense would the country that not only promoted AI but used it efficiently and cost effectively, used it in ways that promote the overall public good, get the WIN. In short it behooves everyone of us to ask hard questions of AI, to dehype the hype, to look for the public good that comes out of this from it's efficient use. To ask the tough questions when $400 billion generates only $40 billion in 2025 and the $3 trillion planned investment over 5 years is half unfunded, is it going to crowd out energy needs for homes and business, push renewable energy targets back, crowd out essential investments in the crumbling aging infrastructure of the US and Europe, crowd out essential investments in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, that hold better promise for our People. Will it also put retirees at risk when corporate bonds from retirees money fund the unfunded portion of AI? This means making the political dimension not about migration, settling the illegal migration issue that was meant to be settled a long time back, or about cultural issues that have little day to day impact on our lives which are about groceries, childcare, housing that are non ideological. Making the political dimension not about remote countries that one knows little about except when it affects public safety and health as with fentanyl. Capital allocation decisions to the vital needs of America can then be free of politically induced error, so that it can be subjected to the test of how best it serves the public interest and the people of the Nation. ...

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Toyota is reducing its dependence on the US market by growing in China, Russia and the Miidle East and with plans for growth in India with a lowcost car. The market in China and Russia has grown by 40% for example and this should mean there is room for overall global growth even with the slowdown in the US. In China Toyota is falling short of demand as its consistently underestimated the growth in the market. When Toyota thought the Chinese market would hit 8 million vehicles by mid 2007 it actually hit 8.5 million. So in many countries like China, Russia and the Middle East and India Toyota may be scrambling to meet demand in the future which suggests that in the long term Toyota may be less affected by the ups and downs in the US market. The US manufacturers like GM are following a similiar strategy. Competing with Toyota overseas the US makers have none ofthe liabilities they face in the US market, years of sloppy service and image, pension and health liabilities, union rules and restrictions, and they are moving some of the best technology and design into overseas markets so the competition there should be on more even ground....

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The American saving rate is up to 7.8% after dropping to 3.2% by 2009 and the financial crisis. This is a good thing as Americans save for retirement and avoid extravagant expenses to build a safety net. The collapse of traditional pensions means much of the burden for retirement falls on individual families. The student debt burden means families share in high education costs, and the lack of a cost efficient health system means more money is needed for health expenses than in other advanced European countries. The savings rate is still nowhere near what it used to be in the 1970's. 

Higher savings also builds up the funds that are in banks as savings that can be a pool of funds for use in building national infrastructure and other value adding investments for the country. China has used a high savings rate and savings pool of funds for its extensive infrastructure investments that modernized the country.

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Scientists say 6out of 9 global climate resilience boundaries have been crossed. It is based on 2000 studies and published in the journal Science Advances. Broken boundaries means the systems have been driven far from the safe and stable state that existed, from the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago, to the start of the Industrial Revolution, says Damian Carrington in The Guardian. We are outside of safe operating space say scientists. Prof. Johan Rockstrom, is head of the Stockholm Resilience Center, who developed the boundaries framework. He says more worrisome than all the extreme climate events we are seeing is the dwindling planetary resilience. For fresh water in lakes and rivers and soil it was crossed earlier in the 20th century. Synthetic pollution from plastic waste in 2022. Nitrogen and phosporous, according to FAO 3 times safe levels added every year. For air pollution it was crossed in South Asia and China. Planetary boundaries is combined with social justice issues in a May assessment so that pro development policies to help the poor can be combined with major investment in climate change action. ...

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CDC has given no explanation for its new guidelines that say testing for coronavirus needs to be done only for those with symptoms, not for those exposed to someone within 6 feet who has symptoms. About half of all new cases are from people who are exposed to people with symptoms but have not yet developed symptoms. One of the reasons the virus spread quickly in February is CDC failure in developing of its own test on February 9 and policy that did not let private labs and labs of teaching hospitals develop their own tests and use them for another 3 crucial weeks.  CDC and Health and Human Services Department errors in February, combined with the stalling of an American team for 3 weeks by China to enter Wuhan in January,  have combined to let the coronavirus spread to the wider population. Once it spreads to a wider population the strategy of test and trace cannot be implemented the way it was first in South Korea and Taiwan, and later in Germany. ...

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China is rapidly moving away from the use of cash in everyday transactions with the popularity of smartphone payment options using WeChat and Alipay apps.

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India stands true to the principles of Mohandas Gandhi and joins Pope Francis in strongly condemning the killing of innocent civilians in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Gandhi would have done in his own way when he even paused the nonviolent struggle against the British after the burning of police stations in British India. Of no less significance is the danger of food insecurity caused by the war in Asia, Africa and Latin America which India is meeting. India is America's true partner in the free world in a way that even Germany, France, even Britain fail to be now that we know Merkel's policy "errors" and Macron's lofty ambitions for Europe, emboldened Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. American and German business integration of the American and German economies with China may also have emboldened Russia and China in their perceptions of world affairs that directly conflict with China's Buddhist history, Gandhi's view of the world, and India as the land of the Buddha.  Mr. Biden will talk with Modi about the invasion of Ukraine , the Indo-Pacific, and the building of strong India-US partnership. A major issue that has not been discussed at this level is the challenge India is facing and meeting of food security after the war in Ukraine. Pakistan, Sri Lanka and many developing countries are feeling the effects of the war with soaring food prices denying access to basic necessities in these countries. This extends to countries from Asia to Africa and Latin America affecting hundreds of millions of people.  India is providing food assistance following its effort to share vaccines in a remarkable effort that has not received the world's attention. Vaccination for over a billion people in India has taken place in one of the significant achievements during the pandemic. This was combined with food security assistance to hundreds of millions of people in India in India's population of 1.2 billion people. India is now in a position to meet some of the world's food needs with its own efforts in agricultural production. In this way the role played by the US since World War II for peace and security is being met by India as a significant partner in the free world, and in a way this is returning the kind of help the US offered India during the period of famine in the sixties. US president Biden understands this as he will discuss "mitigating the destabilising impact on global food supply and commodity markets" of the war in Ukraine. These are the hidden costs of the war that are not less painful than the gory war scenes unfolding today in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and because they are about food they are of no less importance. ...

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A infratest survey shows 91 % of Germans support taking in refugees in the current war in Eastern Europe. 53% of Germans support German government's strong response, and 27% think it doesn't go far enough. 14% say it goes too far. How much has changed since as recent as February 2022 is shown by the change- only 20% supported arms deliveries to Eastern Europe just one month back, this has risen now in March to 61%, and 45% feel that German government did not act soon enough.

A lot has changed in Germany's view of Russia, and also of China, in a few weeks in 2022. This also appears to be the prevailing sentiment in all of Western Europe and most of Eastern Europe. From the Baltics to Scandinavia, across, Italy, Spain, France, Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, there is a remarkable shift in thinking. This also appears to have affected world opinion from Latin America, South East Asia, South Asia, to Africa.

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Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

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Treasury Secretary Yellen says on her second trip to China that she will make this the top issue in discussions, the danger that Chinese overproduction in green energy products will lead to the kind of overspill that happened for steel and aluminium where subsidized products drove American companies out of the market. Speaking at a solar energy factory in Norcross, Georgia, that was itself closed in 2017 and is back up again with the assistance in the Inflation Reduction Act for promoting American green energy manufacturing, Yellen said: "It is important to me and the president that American firms and workers can compete on a level playing field." Yellen's remarks on supply chain resilience- "China's overcapacity distorts global prices and production patterns and hurts American firms and workers, as well as firms and workers around the world. Challenges for individual firms can lead to concentrated supply chains, negatively impacting global economic resilience.”   ...

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India is expected to become more urbanized by 2030 with people living in cities growing from 285 million in 2001 census up to 590 milion, producing 70% of national income. This means issues of climate change are not just about the environment- they are development issues and how to find better ways to plan future low-carbon infrastructure from the early stage. Also learning lessons from the chaotic development in China that in the rush for development allowed the air, water and environment to be hugely polluted.

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The 8000 mile Pacific Light underwater sea cable for internet goes from Los Angeles to Hong Kong. After review by the U.S. Justice Department the conduit connecting to Taiwan and Philippines will be used. leaving the internet link to Hong Kong offline. The U.S. is wary of connection to Hong Kong, and its use as a data hub, after the long public protests in Hong Kong. Perception earlier was of Hong Kong as a separate region from China, with its own distinct identity. This is now changing following the protests.

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The tech monopolies have operated with impunity with one overriding goal of maximizing profits for far too long. Under Theodore Roosevelt the solution was to breakup the oil monopolies of the 1890's. Fighting Tammany Hall corruption in the New York governing structure was just one of TR's achievements, he also fought for better living conditions for workers in New York, for breaking up Standard Oil's grip on the oil industry, and worked hard to rebuild the American Navy to stand up to the European Colonial Powers who impoverished India and China. America can be proud of TR,  and Joe Stilwell who fought the Japanese in China with deep understanding and concern for ordinary Chinese and their struggle against poverty, the wall of indifference of the colonial powers to their condition.

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The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute said the average fuel economy of all new passenger vehicles purchased in January 2012 was 23 miles per gallon, up 0.8 or 4% from December 2011. This includes cars, light trucks, minivans, and SUV's. Professors Sivak and Schoettle of the Institute also released a U.S. Eco-Driving Index, or EDI, which estimates average monthly emissions of individual U.S. drivers for Nov. 2011 at 0.86- this is down 14% from October 2007. The need to reduce reliance on imported oil for the U.S., Europe, China and India, the high price of oil, and the need to reduce automobile emissions to improve air quality, make improvements in average fuel economy and emissions per driver absolutely critical.

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The countries that would be affected the most from a slowdown in China are the commodity producer countries- Australia, Brazil, S. Africa, Chile. Other countries include Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam. Currencies such as the Australian dollar, the South African Rand, the Brazilian Real and the Chilean peso would decline in value. South Korea, Taiwan and Japan which supply large machinery for construction and manufacturing would be affected. Oversupply of steel and other products in China would mean higher exports causing a drop in steel prices and prices of other items. There would be a decline in commodity prices. Germany which provides the high tech machinery for China's industrialization will be affected. Exports growth to China from Germany increased by 44% in 2010. It has been pointed out that China is the seventh largest export market for Germany, coming after France, the U.S., the Netherlands, the U.K., Italy and Austria, exports to EU countries being the largest market for Germany. A global economic slowdown, with the Chinese slowdown as a part of this would impact German exports, leading to a slower growth in Germany. The U.S. would be affected also because exports were picking up in 2010-2011, and remain the one bright spot for the U.S. economy's recovery....

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President Trump says TikTok app would be banned in the U.S. after September 15. He said he had talked to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and told him Microsoft could buy the apps U.S. operations but if it does so a substantial portion of the price must go to the U.S. Treasury because of the approval of the deal the U.S. is giving after the review. He told Nadella "Look it can't be controlled for security reasons by China- too big,too invasive. Here's the deal, I don't mind whether its Microsoft or somebody else, a big company, a secure company, a very American company buy it."

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The Biden plan for families includes paid maternity leave of 4 weeks. It was shortened from 12 weeks in the original $3.6 trillion Biden Families and Workers Plan. This paid leave also applies to caretakers of ill family members such as elderly parents. The lack of such paid leave for mothers or ill parents care meant the US lacked one of the basic necessities of a decent state. Adam Smith in his Wealth of Nations paid much attention to how capital, land and labour could be combined to invest in improved quality of life, and how to build a decent society. Smith wrote this book around the time of the Industrial Revolution in England in the late eighteenth century. Capitalism taken outside this context of benefiting society in the country that started the Industrial Revolution, leads to problems that now exist in the US, China and parts of Europe.

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Three finance ministers, Mr. Sinha, Mr. Chidambaram and Ms. Sitharaman, have favored strong action on PMLA, the preventing money laundering law, saying that it is of serious importance for the integrity and sovereignty of the country, says the Indian Supreme Court as it reproduces these statements. All have argued at different periods in favor of the interpretation of the law consistent with the judgement given by a special bench of the Indian Supreme Court last week.  It has significance in another respect, which is in restoring the faith of hundreds of millions of ordinary citizens in the local, state and federal governments. A faith that has been seriously eroded since independence and which affects the development of infrastructure and modernization of India, and the building of the defense capabilities of the country that rest on making India an advanced economy similar to China. India cannot build up its own financial and human resources to tackle that task with the constant erosion of trust in the management of development and infrastructure and in delivery, that has and is taking place in the country today. ...