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The new German cabinet with Mr Schauble a seasoned Chritian Democrat who led reunification talks in 1990 as Finance Minister, Guido Westerwelle of the Free Democrats as foreign minister, and Philip Rosler the youngest of the leading ministers at 36 years and a Christian Social Union member, as Defence Minister.

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Obama fever and the toning down of it after the first Berlin visit, and the feeling that things are coming back to normality between Germany and the USA.

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Germany is the world's leading exporter, with export of goods generating 41% of GDP, twice the rate in the UK and Japan and 5 times that of the US according to the OECD. With the global slowdown the German government now expects GDP to grow only 0.2% in 2009. And exports are expected to decline in 2009 with a worsening economic situation in most countries. Slowdown in the EU which takes in two thirds of the exports and in the USA will affect these exports.

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Government data show that the German GDP declined by 0.5% in the thrid quarter after declining 0.4% in the second quarter. IMF predicts GDP decline of 0.8% in 2009. Germany's recession look like the worst in Europe except for the UK which has many of the same problems as the US economy. Germany's housing market has seen prices grow by almost zero in the last 10 years and German consumers are not in debt so Germany felt fairly immune to the troubles facing the US and the UK and Spain. But Germany is a big exporter and it has become more dependent on exports in the last 10 years. Exports account for 41% of GDP and CHina sucked up alot of machinery exports from Germany and China is in the midst of a drastic slowdown. In fact for the first time China is seeing a decline in monthly electricity output. And China's GDP growth rate may go from 12% to the range of somewhere around 6% in 2009, considering that Chinese export factories are closing down as the USA its main export market is seeing a rapid slowdown. Its already reached 9% and the slowdown is just beginning as the US market is also at the beginning of its slowdown. As the US market declines further in 2009 China's export factories will face a further decline in orders. Comparing the US at 10%, Japan at 20% and Germany at 41% of GDP one can see how heavily dependent the Germans have become on exports, especially with Asia's booming economies sucking up German exports. New orders for German goods declined by 18% from their peak in November 2007. And this is just the beginnning. So German unemployment is expected to increase. Its true that German banks invested heavily in mortgage related securities and other risky assets abroad, and the international financial crisis has led to a bailout fund of 500 billion euros setup by the German government. But Bundesbank figures show that what is causing the drastic contraction is the drop in investment spending as loan demand has dropped. ...

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This report by Martin in the NYT points out that Ohio no longer plays a critical role in U.S. presidential elections. It was critical for a Bush win over Gore, and president Obama carried it by 2 points against Romney in 2012. It is critical for Trump to win. For Hillary Clinton other states are gaining importance as they better reflect the demographic changes in the U.S. and the mix with minorities- states such as Georgia, N. Carolina, Colorado and Florida. Ohio has not seen an influx of Hispanics as other states, and is now more white, more evangelical voters, and reflects a mix that was prevalent earlier. 

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The 3 week old government in Italy, led by former EU commissioner, Mario Monti, announced a three year plan of 30 billion euros in tax increases, spending cuts, reform of pension plans, and efforts to boost growth. Monti said at a news conference that "Italians are to blame for our public debt, and we risk compormising everything we've accomplished in the past 60 years." Under the new plan retirement age for women in the private sector would be increased from 60 to 66 years by 2018, bringing it in line with retirement ages for men. Italy's Labor minister, Elsa Fornero, broke down in tears as she described the change, saying it was necessary to avoid "collective impoverishment." Italy faces the difficult task of refinancing $400 billion in short term debt coming up for renewal in 2012, just as bond yields for Italy have spiked to over 7%. Because Italy lacks an extensive day care system, women helped raise grandchildren after early retirement at age 60. Other changes were to impose a 1.5% one time tax on money repatriated back to Italy under a tax amnesty scheme setup by former premier Berlusconi. Action was taken against widespread tax evasion by banning cash payments above 1000 euros. Stimulus measures of 10 billion euros are designed to boost small business and reduce high youth unemployment running at 29%. Companies get tax breaks of 2 billion euros if they hire young people....

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Negotiations between Japan and China before the APEC summit in Beijing, Nov. 2014, lead to an agreement that does not explicitly state Japan's sovereignty over the Senkaku islands, but acknowledges the current position in which the islands have remained in Japanese control since 1880. It lets both sides agree to disagree so that trade and diplomatic ties can be improved. China's economy has taken a hit from a 50% decline in Japanese foreign investment in 2014, just as the economy is slowing for other reasons. Both leaders can show the international community they have moderated their positions. Prime minister Abe also can show his foreign and domestic policies are working as his high poll ratings have declined in recent months.

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Greece's pension system was unraveling even before the crisis. Generous provisions from earlier days of political influence led to early retirement by age 50 for some people. People taking early retirement after the crisis started has increased the number of retirees. The aging population has increased the size of the retirees relative to people working, especially with young people unemployed. About 16% of the GDP of Greece goes to pensions. Early in the crisis the retirement system took a hit of 10 billion euros on the declining value of Greek government bonds, wiping out 60% of reserves. Greece's banks were supported, but the retirement system was further weakened. In 2015 45% of the retirees of 2.6 million live at or below the poverty line, having seen cuts of 35-48% in the pensions since the crisis began. With the changes for retirees pensions of 900 euros a month are now about 700 euros for some of the retirees.

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The difficult situation in Spain as unemploymet reaches 23.5%. Descriptions of unemployed young people in the Vallecas neighborhood in Madrid.

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A report by the World Bank is cited showing that in many industries the gap between the leaders in that industry and the companies trailing it is so wide that its as much as 5 times the value added per worker. Based on this the World bank estimates that India can increase its national output rapidly simply using existing knowhow of the best firms in the industry fort those firms that are trailing. This sounds fine on paper but in practice a lot goes into best practice with leadership being hard to replicate easily, and the technology of the leading firms may not be available to the other firms. However its possible for the other companies to increase their productivity if the efffort and determination was present.

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Brazil's growth is seeing a surge in the size of the middle class. Since 2003 about 32 million people have entered the middle class and 20 million haven risen above poverty, in a country of 198 million people, according to the Center for Social Policies at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a Rio policy group. Marcelo Neri, the foundation's economst says 8.5 million jobs were created since 2003 and an active social policy has been pursued in one of South America's most unequal societies.These policies provide food assistance to the poor and low interest credit for first time buyers and small business owners.

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A 108 block sidewalk renovation of a bumpy broken sidewalk in Central Park has to wait for decades for Central Park Conservancy to come forward to fix it in New York City. In today's upside down world of investment where basic infrastructure which one would take for granted is not done while tens of billions are scattered on many wasteful projects by capital markets disinvestment in ease of living in America. NYT looks at this project funded by the city and the Conservancy that will stretch for 6 miles at $600,000 a block. It took about 100 years to do this at New York's infrastructure pace, as this sidewalk was put in place in the 1930's in the early part of the last century. New Yorkers like the people of Mumbai when infrastructure was in such bad shape before today's efforts by the Modi government, have given in to the same despair about the condition of infrastructure in the city, its roads, bridges, sidewalks and other essential infrastructure in a modern economy. ...

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With Obama's popularity rating in 2016 similar to Reagan's in his last year in office at 51%, he announced his endorsement of Hillary Clinton for president. Obama is likely to campaign in 2016 for Hillary to reunite the Democratic Party, bring Bernie Sanders and Sander's supporters behind the Democratic nominee, including younger women.

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China's slowdown may be much worse than is generally thought. Germany went through this thinking that it was relatively safe as it had no housing bubble and no consumer debt like the US and the UK. But the drop in demand from China and other countries has led already to a contraction in the German economy by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008, expected to worsen to 0.8% in 2009. China's National Statistics Bureau announced a 4% decline in electricity output inOctober from a year earlier. This is a result partly of factories manufacturing for export cutting back as their orders decline. There was a 17 drop in production of pig iron and crude steel in October and a 0.7% fall in output in the output sector. From all this it appears that even without the beggar thy neigbor policies of the 1930's, even without the protectionism of that period and even with the global coordination of the G20 and the G7 countries, its hard not to see the impact in one place flowing through to other places. The loss of export markets in the USA for Chinese export factories leads to this slowdown in China which in turn now needs much fewer machinery imports from Germany leading to a contraction in Germany. See the link to German economy in WSJ November 14, 2008. These effects show up in an exaggerated manner with economic contraction because of the heavy dependence on exports in Germany to China, and heavy dependence on exports in China to the USA, and the heavy consumption of Chinese exports in the USA, all ocurring in an exaggerated unsustainable way considering the American spending binge and the zero savings rate in the USA, the pressures on the environment with runaway growth in China, and the lack of any domestic led consumption in Germany. China's infrastructure spending can provide some growth along with the stimulus spending but much of the export led growth may disappear. The stimulus spending could help prevent a contraction in the Chinese economy but may deliver only a few points of growth, way off from the runaway over 10% growth of two decades which was heavily dependent on manufacturing exports. How badly Chinese exports are affected depends on how badly the US market is affected for Chinese imports. Higher unemployment in the US if the auto industry sees a collapse in its market in 2009, would lead to lower consumption in the US as laid off workers cut their purchases at Walmarts and Targets and at other retailers, and this would drive imports from China to even lower levels, wiping off a couple of percentage points of China's GDP growth rate. ...

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U.S. Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, has balanced the rhetoric of president Trump on trade in the NAFTA debate by saying the U.S. is looking for win-win solutions in trade relations with Mexico. At the WSJ CFO network Ross says the trade regime from the post war years is now an anachronism and does not work well especially for the U.S. Many experts agree that the trade framework from that period is problematic. It does not take into account, for instance say experts, the situation where a command economy such as China could help manufacturing industries with state policies, including currency policies. The rapid growth in China was different from the rapid growth in an earlier period of Japan, in terms of its impact say experts. The U.S was the dominant economy during the sixties, and the growth in Japan was not at the accelerated pace and of the magnitude that happened in China. As a result the impact on  some communities in the U.S. was much more intense in the last two decades, as documented by prominent trade studies, leading to the sense that trade did not work for these communities. ...

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 A member of the WSJ Editorial Board, says the Republican National Convention was more consequential in the way it continued the theme of getting non- white people to see how the president is taking action on issues that affect them. Mr. Trump cited his work on prison reform legislation, on funding for black colleges and universities, rebuilding broken families, and bringing back jobs in Detroit, Cleveland and Milwaukee. 69% of registered voters are white in 2019 compared to 73% in 2012, according to the Pew Research Center. Getting it right now means he says not merely the defending American workers to prevent "offshoring of jobs, opening the borders, and sending sons and daughters to fight in endless foreign wars," but also how to defend the rights of minorities in America and of working class non-white people. In 2016 the Republican party got 8% of the black vote nationally, which was the lowest in 4 decades excluding the years Mr. Obama ran for election. The effort to highlight the work on behalf of Black people and Hispanic people was to take this number back up as far up as Republicans can to the level reached under Eisenhower. This he says will be good for Republicans and good for the country. Under Eisenhower in 1956 the Republican party gained 36% of the Black vote, the highest ever.  ...

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The limited options the US has to get China to appreciate the value of its currency, the yuan. Some of the options depend on getting the IMF or the WTO to prod the Chinese, others depend on a Plaza type Accord.

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The influence of business executives who helped shape president Trump's views on Mexico, China, Export Import Bank, and other issues is covered by Stokols and Bender of WSJ. On Mexico the departure of Mike Flynn helped moderate views, Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary also provided a moderating influence. The plans are now to change NAFTA but not entirely redo the agreement. On the Export Import Bank the views of Boeing CEO Muilenburg, who explained to Trump why the Bank supported U.S. exports and how other countries had similar banks, led to the president filling the bank vacancies. On China the influence of NEC head, Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, and other business executives, led to a less confrontational position. The president once called NATO obsolete during the campaign but he met this week with NATO secretary general Stoltenberg this week and expressed strong support for NATO after rising tensions with Russia.